Population dynamics of live-attenuated virus vaccines

Viruses contained in live-attenuated virus vaccines (LAVV) can be transmitted between individuals, resulting in secondary or contact vaccinations. This fact has been exploited successfully in the use of the Oral Polio Vaccine (OPV) to better control wild-type polio viruses. In this work we analyze general LAVV vaccination models for infections that confer lifelong immunity. We consider both standard (continuous) vaccination strategies and pulse vaccination programs (where mass vaccination is carried out at regular intervals). For continuous vaccination, we provide a complete global analysis of a very general compartmental ordinary differential equation LAVV model. We find that the threshold vaccination level required for the eradication of wild-type virus depends on the basic reproduction numbers of both the wild-type and vaccine viruses, but is otherwise independent of the distributions of the durations in each of the sequence of stages of disease progression (e.g., latent, infectious, etc.). Furthermore, even for vaccine viruses with reproduction numbers below one, which would naturally fade from the population upon cessation of vaccination, there can be a significant reduction in the threshold vaccination level. The dependence of the threshold vaccination level on the virus reproduction numbers largely generalizes to the pulse vaccination model. For shorter pulsing periods there is negligible difference in threshold vaccination level as compared to continuous vaccination campaigns. Thus, we conclude that current policy in many countries to employ annual pulsed OPV vaccination does not significantly diminish the benefits of contact vaccination.     

Determination of optimal vaccination strategies using an orbital stability threshold from periodically driven systems

We analyse a periodically driven SIR epidemic model for childhood related diseases, where the contact rate and vaccination rate parameters are considered periodic. The aim is to define optimal vaccination strategies for control of childhood related infections. Stability analysis of the uninfected solution is the tool for setting up the control function. The optimal solutions are sought within a set of susceptible population profiles. Our analysis reveals that periodic vaccination strategy hardly contributes to the stability of the uninfected solution if the human residence time (life span) is much larger than the contact rate period. However, if the human residence time and the contact rate periods match, we observe some positive effect of periodic vaccination. Such a vaccination strategy would be useful in the developing world, where human life spans are shorter, or basically in the case of vaccination of livestock or small animals whose life-spans are relatively shorter.     

Potential Benefits of Cattle Vaccination as a Supplementary Control for Bovine Tuberculosis

Vaccination for the control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) in cattle is not currently used within any international control program, and is illegal within the EU. Candidate vaccines, based upon Mycobacterium bovis bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) all interfere with the action of the tuberculin skin test, which is used to determine if animals, herds and countries are officially bTB-free. New diagnostic tests that Differentiate Infected from Vaccinated Animals (DIVA) offer the potential to introduce vaccination within existing eradication programs. We use within-herd transmission models estimated from historical data from Great Britain (GB) to explore the feasibility of such supplemental use of vaccination. The economic impact of bovine Tuberculosis for farmers is dominated by the costs associated with testing, and associated restrictions on animal movements. Farmers’ willingness to adopt vaccination will require vaccination to not only reduce the burden of infection, but also the risk of restrictions being imposed. We find that, under the intensive sequence of testing in GB, it is the specificity of the DIVA test, rather than the sensitivity, that is the greatest barrier to see a herd level benefit of vaccination. The potential negative effects of vaccination could be mitigated through relaxation of testing. However, this could potentially increase the hidden burden of infection within Officially TB Free herds. Using our models, we explore the range of the DIVA test characteristics necessary to see a protective herd level benefit of vaccination. We estimate that a DIVA specificity of at least 99.85% and sensitivity of >40% is required to see a protective benefit of vaccination with no increase in the risk of missed infection. Data from experimentally infected animals suggest that this target specificity could be achieved in vaccinates using a cocktail of three DIVA antigens while maintaining a sensitivity of 73.3% (95%CI: 61.9, 82.9%) relative to post-mortem detection.     

The relationship between maximal lifting capacity and maximum acceptable lift in strength-based soldiering tasks

Psychophysical assessments, such as the maximum acceptable lift, have been used to establish worker capability and set safe load limits for manual handling tasks in occupational settings. However, in military settings, in which task demand is set and capable workers must be selected, subjective measurements are inadequate, and maximal capacity testing must be used to assess lifting capability. The aim of this study was to establish and compare the relationship between maximal lifting capacity and a self-determined tolerable lifting limit, maximum acceptable lift, across a range of military-relevant lifting tasks. Seventy male soldiers (age 23.7 ± 6.1 years) from the Australian Army performed 7 strength-based lifting tasks to determine their maximum lifting capacity and maximum acceptable lift. Comparisons were performed to identify maximum acceptable lift relative to maximum lifting capacity for each individual task. Linear regression was used to identify the relationship across all tasks when the data were pooled. Strong correlations existed between all 7 lifting tasks (rrange = 0.87-0.96, p < 0.05). No differences were found in maximum acceptable lift relative to maximum lifting capacity across all tasks (p = 0.46). When data were pooled, maximum acceptable lift was equal to 84 ± 8% of the maximum lifting capacity. This study is the first to illustrate the strong and consistent relationship between maximum lifting capacity and maximum acceptable lift for multiple single lifting tasks. The relationship developed between these indices may be used to help assess self-selected manual handling capability through occupationally relevant maximal performance tests.     

Effects of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions and their lag times on the COVID-19 pandemic: Comparison of eight countries

Many countries implemented measures to control the COVID-19 pandemic, but the effects of these measures have varied greatly. We evaluated the effects of different policies, the prevalence of dominant variants (e.g., Delta), and vaccination on the characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic in eight countries. We quantified the lag times of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination using a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). We also tested whether these lag times were reasonable by analyzing changes in daily cases and the effective reproductive number (R_t)over time. Our results indicated that the response to vaccination in countries with continuous vaccination programs lagged by at least 40 days, and the lag time for a response to NPIs was at least 14 days. A rebound was most likely to occur during the 40 days after the first vaccine dose. We also found that the combination of school closure, workplace closure, restrictions on mass gatherings, and stay-at-home requirements were successful in containing the pandemic. Our results thus demonstrated that vaccination was effective, although some regions were adversely affected by new variants and low vaccination coverage. Importantly, relaxation of NPIs soon after implementation of a vaccination program may lead to a rebound.     

Renewable jet fuel supply scenarios in the European Union in 2021–2030 in the context of proposed biofuel policy and competing biomass demand

This study presents supply scenarios of nonfood renewable jet fuel (RJF) in the European Union (EU) toward 2030, based on the anticipated regulatory context, availability of biomass and conversion technologies, and competing biomass demand from other sectors (i.e., transport, heat, power, and chemicals). A cost optimization model was used to identify preconditions for increased RJF production and the associated emission reductions, costs, and impact on competing sectors. Model scenarios show nonfood RJF supply could increase from 1 PJ in 2021 to 165–261 PJ/year (3.8–6.1 million tonne (Mt)/year) by 2030, provided advanced biofuel technologies are developed and adequate (policy) incentives are present. This supply corresponds to 6%–9% of jet fuel consumption and 28%–41% of total nonfood biofuel consumption in the EU. These results are driven by proposed policy incentives and a relatively high fossil jet fuel price compared to other fossil fuels. RJF reduces aviation‐related combustion emission by 12–19 Mt/year CO₂‐eq by 2030, offsetting 53%–84% of projected emission growth of the sector in the EU relative to 2020. Increased RJF supply mainly affects nonfood biofuel use in road transport, which remained relatively constant during 2021–2030. The cost differential of RJF relative to fossil jet fuel declines from 40 €/GJ (1,740 €/t) in 2021 to 7–13 €/GJ (280–540 €/t) in 2030, because of the introduction of advanced biofuel technologies, technological learning, increased fossil jet fuel prices, and reduced feedstock costs. The cumulative additional costs of RJF equal €7.7–11 billion over 2021–2030 or €1.0–1.4 per departing passenger (intra‐EU) when allocated to the aviation sector. By 2030, 109–213 PJ/year (2.5–4.9 Mt/year) RJF is produced from lignocellulosic biomass using technologies which are currently not yet commercialized. Hence, (policy) mechanisms that expedite technology development are cardinal to the feasibility and affordability of increasing RJF production.     

Normalized lift: an energy interpretation of the lift coefficient simplifies comparisons of the lifting ability of rotating and flapping surfaces

For a century, researchers have used the standard lift coefficient C(L) to evaluate the lift, L, generated by fixed wings over an area S against dynamic pressure, ?ρv(2), where v is the effective velocity of the wing. Because the lift coefficient was developed initially for fixed wings in steady flow, its application to other lifting systems requires either simplifying assumptions or complex adjustments as is the case for flapping wings and rotating cylinders.This paper interprets the standard lift coefficient of a fixed wing slightly differently, as the work exerted by the wing on the surrounding flow field (L/ρ·S), compared against the total kinetic energy required for generating said lift, ?v(2). This reinterpreted coefficient, the normalized lift, is derived from the work-energy theorem and compares the lifting capabilities of dissimilar lift systems on a similar energy footing. The normalized lift is the same as the standard lift coefficient for fixed wings, but differs for wings with more complex motions; it also accounts for such complex motions explicitly and without complex modifications or adjustments. We compare the normalized lift with the previously-reported values of lift coefficient for a rotating cylinder in Magnus effect, a bat during hovering and forward flight, and a hovering dipteran.The maximum standard lift coefficient for a fixed wing without flaps in steady flow is around 1.5, yet for a rotating cylinder it may exceed 9.0, a value that implies that a rotating cylinder generates nearly 6 times the maximum lift of a wing. The maximum normalized lift for a rotating cylinder is 1.5. We suggest that the normalized lift can be used to evaluate propellers, rotors, flapping wings of animals and micro air vehicles, and underwater thrust-generating fins in the same way the lift coefficient is currently used to evaluate fixed wings.     

Uncertainty in the tail of the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic in the UK

Despite low case numbers the variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease epidemic poses many challenges for public health planning due to remaining uncertainties in disease biology and transmission routes. We develop a stochastic model for variant CJD transmission, taking into account the known transmission routes (food and red-cell transfusion) to assess the remaining uncertainty in the epidemic. We use Bayesian methods to obtain scenarios consistent with current data. Our results show a potentially long but uncertain tail in the epidemic, with a peak annual incidence of around 11 cases, but the 95% credibility interval between 1 and 65 cases. These cases are predicted to be due to past food-borne transmissions occurring in previously mostly unaffected genotypes and to transmissions via blood transfusion in all genotypes. However, we also show that the latter are unlikely to be identifiable as transfusion-associated cases by case-linking. Regardless of the numbers of future cases, even in the absence of any further control measures, we do not find any self-sustaining epidemics.     

Removing the Age Restrictions for Rotavirus Vaccination: A Benefit-Risk Modeling Analysis

Background

To minimize potential risk of intussusception, the World Health Organization (WHO) recommended in 2009 that rotavirus immunization should be initiated by age 15 weeks and completed before 32 weeks. These restrictions could adversely impact vaccination coverage and thereby its health impact, particularly in developing countries where delays in vaccination often occur.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a modeling study to estimate the number of rotavirus deaths prevented and the number of intussusception deaths caused by vaccination when administered on the restricted schedule versus an unrestricted schedule whereby rotavirus vaccine would be administered with DTP vaccine up to age 3 years. Countries were grouped on the basis of child mortality rates, using WHO data. Inputs were estimates of WHO rotavirus mortality by week of age from a recent study, intussusception mortality based on a literature review, predicted vaccination rates by week of age from USAID Demographic and Health Surveys, the United Nations Children''s Fund (UNICEF) Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), and WHO-UNICEF 2010 country-specific coverage estimates, and published estimates of vaccine efficacy and vaccine-associated intussusception risk. On the basis of the error estimates and distributions for model inputs, we conducted 2,000 simulations to obtain median estimates of deaths averted and caused as well as the uncertainty ranges, defined as the 5th–95th percentile, to provide an indication of the uncertainty in the estimates.We estimated that in low and low-middle income countries a restricted schedule would prevent 155,800 rotavirus deaths (5th–95th centiles, 83,300–217,700) while causing potentially 253 intussusception deaths (76–689). In contrast, vaccination without age restrictions would prevent 203,000 rotavirus deaths (102,000–281,500) while potentially causing 547 intussusception deaths (237–1,160). Thus, removing the age restrictions would avert an additional 47,200 rotavirus deaths (18,700–63,700) and cause an additional 294 (161–471) intussusception deaths, for an incremental benefit-risk ratio of 154 deaths averted for every death caused by vaccine. These extra deaths prevented under an unrestricted schedule reflect vaccination of an additional 21%–25% children, beyond the 63%–73% of the children who would be vaccinated under the restricted schedule. Importantly, these estimates err on the side of safety in that they assume high vaccine-associated risk of intussusception and do not account for potential herd immunity or non-fatal outcomes.

Conclusions

Our analysis suggests that in low- and middle-income countries the additional lives saved by removing age restrictions for rotavirus vaccination would far outnumber the potential excess vaccine-associated intussusception deaths. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Application of a Life Cycle Model for European Union Policy‐Driven Waste Management Decision Making in Emerging Economies

Solid waste life cycle modeling has predominantly focused on developed countries, but there are significant opportunities to assist developing and transition economies to minimize the environmental impact of solid waste management (SWM). Serbia is representative of a transition country and most (92%) of its waste is landfilled. As a Candidate European Union (EU) country, Serbia is expected to implement SWM strategies that meet EU directives. The Solid Waste Life‐Cycle Optimization Framework (SWOLF) was used to evaluate scenarios that meet EU goals by 2030. Scenarios included combinations of landfills, anaerobic digestion, composting, material recovery facilities (MRFs), waste‐to‐energy (WTE) combustion, and the use of refuse‐derived fuel in cement kilns. Each scenario was evaluated with and without separate collection of recyclables. Modeled impacts included cost, climate change, cumulative fossil energy demand, acidification, eutrophication, photochemical oxidation, total eco‐toxicity, and total human toxicity. Trade‐offs among the scenarios were evaluated because no scenario performed best in every category. In general, SWM strategies that incorporated processes that recover energy and recyclable materials performed well across categories, whereas scenarios that did not include energy recovery performed poorly. Emissions offsets attributable to energy recovery and reduced energy requirements associated with remanufacturing of recovered recyclables had the strongest influence on the results. The scenarios rankings were robust under parametric sensitivity analysis, except when the marginal electricity fuel source changed from coal to natural gas. Model results showed that the use of existing infrastructure, energy recovery, and efficient recovery of recyclables from mixed waste can reduce environmental emissions at relatively low cost.     

Bistability of Evolutionary Stable Vaccination Strategies in the Reinfection SIRI Model

We use the reinfection SIRI epidemiological model to analyze the impact of education programs and vaccine scares on individuals decisions to vaccinate or not. The presence of the reinfection provokes the novelty of the existence of three Nash equilibria for the same level of the morbidity relative risk instead of a single Nash equilibrium as occurs in the SIR model studied by Bauch and Earn (PNAS 101:13391–13394, 2004). The existence of three Nash equilibria, with two of them being evolutionary stable, introduces two scenarios with relevant and opposite features for the same level of the morbidity relative risk: the low-vaccination scenario corresponding to the evolutionary stable vaccination strategy, where individuals will vaccinate with a low probability; and the high-vaccination scenario corresponding to the evolutionary stable vaccination strategy, where individuals will vaccinate with a high probability. We introduce the evolutionary vaccination dynamics for the SIRI model and we prove that it is bistable. The bistability of the evolutionary dynamics indicates that the damage provoked by false scares on the vaccination perceived morbidity risks can be much higher and much more persistent than in the SIR model. Furthermore, the vaccination education programs to be efficient they need to implement a mechanism to suddenly increase the vaccination coverage level.     

National plastic surgery survey: brow lifting techniques and complications.

The purpose of this survey was to assess trends in brow lifting philosophy, techniques, and complications. This is the second of a three-part survey; the first part reported on complications with face lift techniques, and the final report will address practice management issues, including facility and ancillary procedures. Surveys were sent to 3800 members of the American Society of Plastic Surgeons; the response rate was 15 percent. This survey represents data on 6951 brow lifts, of which approximately 50 percent were performed endoscopically and 50 percent with a coronal incision. Several conclusions about the practice of the respondents were reached: (1) Both brow lift techniques were considered to be effective. (2) Surgeons considered coronal brow lifting to be more effective for the three basic goals of brow lifting: brow elevation, reduction of transverse lines, and reduction of glabellar lines. (3) Reported complication rates for both techniques were low, and the most frequent complication was alopecia (varying from 2.9 percent to 4 percent). (4) Patient satisfaction varied from 98.2 percent to 99.2 percent. (5) Major complications were rarely reported.     

COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province,Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness

BackgroundMultiple Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines appear to be safe and efficacious, but only high-income countries have the resources to procure sufficient vaccine doses for most of their eligible populations. The World Health Organization has published guidelines for vaccine prioritisation, but most vaccine impact projections have focused on high-income countries, and few incorporate economic considerations. To address this evidence gap, we projected the health and economic impact of different vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan (population: 48 million).Methods and findingsWe fitted a compartmental transmission model to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sindh from 30 April to 15 September 2020. We then projected cases, deaths, and hospitalisation outcomes over 10 years under different vaccine scenarios. Finally, we combined these projections with a detailed economic model to estimate incremental costs (from healthcare and partial societal perspectives), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each scenario.We project that 1 year of vaccine distribution, at delivery rates consistent with COVAX projections, using an infection-blocking vaccine at $3/dose with 70% efficacy and 2.5-year duration of protection is likely to avert around 0.9 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.9, 1.0) million cases, 10.1 (95% CrI: 10.1, 10.3) thousand deaths, and 70.1 (95% CrI: 69.9, 70.6) thousand DALYs, with an ICER of $27.9 per DALY averted from the health system perspective. Under a broad range of alternative scenarios, we find that initially prioritising the older (65+) population generally prevents more deaths. However, unprioritised distribution has almost the same cost-effectiveness when considering all outcomes, and both prioritised and unprioritised programmes can be cost-effective for low per-dose costs. High vaccine prices ($10/dose), however, may not be cost-effective, depending on the specifics of vaccine performance, distribution programme, and future pandemic trends.The principal drivers of the health outcomes are the fitted values for the overall transmission scaling parameter and disease natural history parameters from other studies, particularly age-specific probabilities of infection and symptomatic disease, as well as social contact rates. Other parameters are investigated in sensitivity analyses.This study is limited by model approximations, available data, and future uncertainty. Because the model is a single-population compartmental model, detailed impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as household isolation cannot be practically represented or evaluated in combination with vaccine programmes. Similarly, the model cannot consider prioritising groups like healthcare or other essential workers. The model is only fitted to the reported case and death data, which are incomplete and not disaggregated by, e.g., age. Finally, because the future impact and implementation cost of NPIs are uncertain, how these would interact with vaccination remains an open question.ConclusionsCOVID-19 vaccination can have a considerable health impact and is likely to be cost-effective if more optimistic vaccine scenarios apply. Preventing severe disease is an important contributor to this impact. However, the advantage of prioritising older, high-risk populations is smaller in generally younger populations. This reduction is especially true in populations with more past transmission, and if the vaccine is likely to further impede transmission rather than just disease. Those conditions are typical of many low- and middle-income countries.

In a modelling study, Carl A B Pearson and coauthors investigate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of various COVID-19 vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan     

Maximum acceptable weight of lift for side and back lifting

A series of laboratory experiments were conducted to find maximum acceptable weights in front, side, and back lifting. Fifteen college students participated in the experiment. Experimental trials for each type of lifting were conducted for 10 min for each subject at a rate of 4 lifts/min. Psychophysical methodology was used to find the acceptable weight based upon their perceived feeling of stress in the lower back. It was found that subjects are willing to lift the heaviest load using back lifting (average maximum acceptable weight: 41.5 lbs). Front lifting was the close second with 39.4 lbs. Also, there was a significant difference in maximum acceptable weight of lift between side lifting (average maximum acceptable weight: 25.5 lbs) and the other two types of lifting. It was also found that leg strength was a limiting variable for maximum acceptable weight in front lifting. Composite strength and shoulder strength were found to be limiting variables in side lifting. Composite strength was the limiting variable in the back lifting.     

BCG vaccination early in life does not improve COVID-19 outcome of elderly populations,based on nationally reported data

The reported numbers of Covid-19 cases and deaths were compared for 18 countries (14 in Western Europe, plus Australia, Brazil, Israel and the USA) to assess the effect of historic and current national BCG immunizations. In view of the high death rate for Covid-19 patients over 70 years of age, and given the fact that BCG vaccination is typically given early in life, we compared countries that had introduced BCG in the 1950s with those that had not. No effect on Covid-19 case fatality rate (CFR) or number of deaths per population could be demonstrated. Since some countries test for Covid-19 more than others, the effect of tests performed per million population on reported deaths per million was also assessed, but again did not demonstrate an effect of BCG vaccination in the 1950s. Whether countries had never used the vaccine, had historically used it but since ceased to do so, or were presently vaccinating with BCG did not correlate with national total number of deaths or CFR. We conclude that there is currently no evidence for a beneficial effect of BCG vaccination on Covid-19 reported cases or fatalities.     

Mathematical and empirical proof of principle for an on-body personal lift augmentation device (PLAD)

In our laboratory, we have developed a prototype of a personal lift augmentation device (PLAD) that can be worn by workers during manual handling tasks involving lifting or lowering or static holding in symmetric and asymmetric postures. Our concept was to develop a human-speed on-body assistive device that would reduce the required lumbar moment by 20-30% without negative consequences on other joints or lifting kinematics. This paper provides mathematical proof using simplified free body diagrams and two-dimensional moment balance equations. Empirical proof is also provided based on lifting trials with nine male subjects who executed sagittal plane lifts using three lifting styles (stoop, squat, free) and three different loads (5, 15, and 25kg) under two conditions (PLAD, No-PLAD). Nine Fastrak sensors and six in-line strap force sensors were used to estimate the reduction of compressive and shear forces on L4/L5 as well as estimate the forces transferred to the shoulders and knees. Depending on lifting technique, the PLAD applied an added 23-36Nm of torque to assist the back muscles during lifting tasks. The peak pelvic girdle contact forces were estimated and their magnitudes ranged from 221.3+/-11.2N for stoop lifting, 324.3+/-17.2N for freestyle lifts to 468.47+/-23.2N for squat lifting. The PLAD was able to reduce the compression and shear forces about 23-29% and 7.9-8.5%, respectively.     

The role of childrens’ vaccination for COVID-19—Pareto-optimal allocations of vaccines

COVID-19 vaccines have been approved for children of age five and older in many countries. However, there is an ongoing debate as to whether children should be vaccinated and at what priority. In this work, we use mathematical modeling and optimization to study how vaccine allocations to different age groups effect epidemic outcomes. In particular, we consider the effect of extending vaccination campaigns to include the vaccination of children. When vaccine availability is limited, we consider Pareto-optimal allocations with respect to competing measures of the number of infections and mortality and systematically study the trade-offs among them. In the scenarios considered, when some weight is given to the number of infections, we find that it is optimal to allocate vaccines to adolescents in the age group 10-19, even when they are assumed to be less susceptible than adults. We further find that age group 0-9 is included in the optimal allocation for sufficiently high values of the basic reproduction number.     

Did Vaccination Slow the Spread of Bluetongue in France?

Vaccination is one of the most efficient ways to control the spread of infectious diseases. Simulations are now widely used to assess how vaccination can limit disease spread as well as mitigate morbidity or mortality in susceptible populations. However, field studies investigating how much vaccines decrease the velocity of epizootic wave-fronts during outbreaks are rare. This study aimed at investigating the effect of vaccination on the propagation of bluetongue, a vector-borne disease of ruminants. We used data from the 2008 bluetongue virus serotype 1 (BTV-1) epizootic of southwest France. As the virus was newly introduced in this area, natural immunity of livestock was absent. This allowed determination of the role of vaccination in changing the velocity of bluetongue spread while accounting for environmental factors that possibly influenced it. The average estimated velocity across the country despite restriction on animal movements was 5.4 km/day, which is very similar to the velocity of spread of the bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic in France also estimated in a context of restrictions on animal movements. Vaccination significantly reduced the propagation velocity of BTV-1. In comparison to municipalities with no vaccine coverage, the velocity of BTV-1 spread decreased by 1.7 km/day in municipalities with immunized animals. For the first time, the effect of vaccination has been quantified using data from a real epizootic whilst accounting for environmental factors known to modify the velocity of bluetongue spread. Our findings emphasize the importance of vaccination in limiting disease spread across natural landscape. Finally, environmental factors, specifically those related to vector abundance and activity, were found to be good predictors of the velocity of BTV-1 spread, indicating that these variables need to be adequately accounted for when evaluating the role of vaccination on bluetongue spread.     

Focus: Health Equity: COVID-19 Healthcare Inequity: Lessons Learned from Annual Influenza Vaccination Rates to Mitigate COVID-19 Vaccine Disparities

The COVID-19 pandemic has infected 33 million Americans and resulted in more than 600,000 deaths as of late Spring 2021. Black, Indigenous, and Latinx (BIL) people are disproportionately infected, hospitalized, and dying. Effective vaccines were rapidly developed and have been widely available in the United States since their initial rollout in late 2020-early 2021 but vaccination rates in BIL communities have remained low compared with non-BIL communities. Limited access to the vaccine, lack of customized information, and mistrust of the medical system, all contribute to vaccine hesitancy and low vaccination rates. Regrettably, COVID-19 is not the only vaccine-preventable illness with racial/ethnic inequities. Similar inequities are seen with the seasonal influenza vaccine. We review the racial/ethnic health disparities in COVID-19 illness and vaccination rates and what inequities contribute to these disparities. We use evidence from the seasonal influenza vaccination efforts to inform potential strategies to attenuate these inequities. The development of effective and sustainable strategies to improve vaccination rates and reduce factors that result in health inequities is essential in managing current and future pandemics and promoting improved health for all communities.     

Lift generation by the avian tail.

Variation with tail spread of the lift generated by a bird tail was measured on mounted, frozen European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) in a wind tunnel at a typical air speed and body and tail angle of attack in order to test predictions of existing aerodynamic theories modelling tail lift. Measured lift at all but the lowest tail spread angles was significantly lower than the predictions of slender wing, leading edge vortex and lifting line models of lift production. Instead, the tail lift coefficient based on tail area was independent of tail spread, tail aspect ratio and maximum tail span. Theoretical models do not predict bird tail lift reliably and, when applied to tail morphology, may underestimate the aerodynamic optimum tail feather length. Flow visualization experiments reveal that an isolated tail generates leading edge vortices as expected for a low-aspect ratio delta wing, but that in the intact bird body-tail interactions are critical in determining tail aerodynamics: lifting vortices shed from the body interact with the tail and degrade tail lift compared with that of an isolated tail.