A cost-effectiveness analysis of "test" versus "treat" patients hospitalized with suspected influenza in Hong Kong

Background

Seasonal and 2009 H1N1 influenza viruses may cause severe diseases and result in excess hospitalization and mortality in the older and younger adults, respectively. Early antiviral treatment may improve clinical outcomes. We examined potential outcomes and costs of test-guided versus empirical treatment in patients hospitalized for suspected influenza in Hong Kong.

Methods

We designed a decision tree to simulate potential outcomes of four management strategies in adults hospitalized for severe respiratory infection suspected of influenza: “immunofluorescence-assay” (IFA) or “polymerase-chain-reaction” (PCR)-guided oseltamivir treatment, “empirical treatment plus PCR” and “empirical treatment alone”. Model inputs were derived from literature. The average prevalence (11%) of influenza in 2010–2011 (58% being 2009 H1N1) among cases of respiratory infections was used in the base-case analysis. Primary outcome simulated was cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) expected (ICER) from the Hong Kong healthcare providers'' perspective.

Results

In base-case analysis, “empirical treatment alone” was shown to be the most cost-effective strategy and dominated the other three options. Sensitivity analyses showed that “PCR-guided treatment” would dominate “empirical treatment alone” when the daily cost of oseltamivir exceeded USD18, or when influenza prevalence was <2.5% and the predominant circulating viruses were not 2009 H1N1. Using USD50,000 as the threshold of willingness-to-pay, “empirical treatment alone” and “PCR-guided treatment” were cost-effective 97% and 3% of time, respectively, in 10,000 Monte-Carlo simulations.

Conclusions

During influenza epidemics, empirical antiviral treatment appears to be a cost-effective strategy in managing patients hospitalized with severe respiratory infection suspected of influenza, from the perspective of healthcare providers in Hong Kong.     

Prevalence of PTSD and Depression among Junior Middle School Students in a Rural Town Far from the Epicenter of the Wenchuan Earthquake in China

Context

On May12^th 2008, a devastating earthquake measuring 8.0 on the Richter scale, struck Wenchuan county and surrounding areas in China. The prevalence of mental illness among children and adolescents in a rural town far from the earthquake epicenter is unknown.

Objective

To assess the prevalence of posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and depression among junior middle school students in a rural town Ningqiang county, 327 km from the earthquake epicenter.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A population-based mental health survey was conducted in March, 2009.

Main Outcome Measure

Survey Self-designed General Condition Survey Scale, Children''s Revised Impact of Event Scale (CRIES-13), and the Depression Self-rating Scale for Children (DSRSC) were used to sample 1,841 junior middle school students in Ningqiang county, ten months after the Wenchuan earthquake.

Results

The prevalence rate of a high-risk for PTSD was 28.4%, with 32.7% among females, 23.8% among males (female vs. male, p<0.001), 38.6% in the severe exposure group and 24.3% in the mild exposure group (severe vs. mild exposure, p<0.001). For depressive symptoms, the overall prevalence was 19.5%, with 24.0% among females, 14.7% among males, 24.5% in the severe exposure group and 17.5% in the mild exposure group (female vs. male, p<0.001; severe vs. mild exposure, p<0.001, respectively). In multivariate analysis, factors such as “having felt despair”, or “danger” and “having own house destroyed or damaged” were significantly associated with PTSD symptoms. Female gender and delayed evacuation in females, and earthquake related experiences in males were significantly associated with depression.

Conclusion

Traumatic events experienced during the earthquake were significantly associated with symptoms of PTSD and depression in children and adolescents, ten months after the Wenchuan earthquake. These data highlight a need for mental health services for children and adolescents in rural areas, far from earthquake epicenters.     

Effects of community-wide vaccination with PCV-7 on pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage in the Gambia: a cluster-randomized trial

Background

Introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) of limited valency is justified in Africa by the high burden of pneumococcal disease. Long-term beneficial effects of PCVs may be countered by serotype replacement. We aimed to determine the impact of PCV-7 vaccination on pneumococcal carriage in rural Gambia.

Methods and Findings

A cluster-randomized (by village) trial of the impact of PCV-7 on pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage was conducted in 21 Gambian villages between December 2003 to June 2008 (5,441 inhabitants in 2006). Analysis was complemented with data obtained before vaccination. Because efficacy of PCV-9 in young Gambian children had been shown, it was considered unethical not to give PCV-7 to young children in all of the study villages. PCV-7 was given to children below 30 mo of age and to those born during the trial in all study villages. Villages were randomized (older children and adults) to receive one dose of PCV-7 (11 vaccinated villages) or meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccine (10 control villages). Cross-sectional surveys (CSSs) to collect nasopharyngeal swabs were conducted before vaccination (2,094 samples in the baseline CSS), and 4–6, 12, and 22 mo after vaccination (1,168, 1,210, and 446 samples in CSS-1, -2, and -3, respectively).A time trend analysis showed a marked fall in the prevalence of vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in all age groups following vaccination (from 23.7% and 26.8% in the baseline CSS to 7.1% and 8.5% in CSS-1, in vaccinated and control villages, respectively). The prevalence of vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage was lower in vaccinated than in control villages among older children (5 y to <15 y of age) and adults (≥15 y of age) at CSS-2 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.15 [95% CI 0.04–0.57] and OR = 0.32 [95% CI 0.10–0.98], respectively) and at CSS-3 (OR = 0.37 [95% CI 0.15–0.90] for older children, and 0% versus 7.6% for adults in vaccinated and control villages, respectively). Differences in the prevalence of non-vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage between vaccinated and control villages were small.

Conclusions

Vaccination of Gambian children reduced vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage across all age groups, indicating a “herd effect” in non-vaccinated older children and adults. No significant serotype replacement was detected. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Seroprevalence to the Antigens of Taenia solium Cysticercosis among Residents of Three Villages in Burkina Faso: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

There is limited published information on the prevalence of human cysticercosis in West Africa. The aim of this pilot study was to estimate the prevalence of Taenia solium cysticercosis antigens in residents of three villages in Burkina Faso.

Methods/Principal Findings

Three villages were selected: The village of Batondo, selected to represent villages where pigs are allowed to roam freely; the village of Pabré, selected to represent villages where pigs are usually confined; and the village of Nyonyogo, selected because of a high proportion of Muslims and limited pig farming. Clustered random sampling was used to select the participants. All participants were asked to answer an interview questionnaire on socio-demographic characteristics and to provide a blood sample. The sera were analysed using an AgELISA. The prevalence of “strong” seropositive results to the presence of antigens of the larval stages of T. solium was estimated as 10.3% (95%CI: 7.1%–14.3%), 1.4% (0.4%–3.5%) and 0.0% (0.0%–2.1%) in the 763 participants who provided a blood sample in Batondo, Pabré and Nyonyogo, respectively. The prevalence of “weak” seropositive test results to the presence of antigens of the larval stages of T. solium was 1.3% (0.3%–3.2%), 0.3% (0.0%–1.9%) and 4.5% (2.0%–8.8%) in Batondo, Pabré and Nyonyogo, respectively. The multivariate logistic regression, which included only Batondo and Pabré, showed that village, gender, and pork consumption history were associated with AgELISA seroprevalence.

Conclusions/Significance

This study illustrates two major points: 1) there can be large variation in the prevalence of human seropositivity to the presence of the larval stages of T. solium cysticercosis among rural areas of the same country, and 2) the serological level of the antigen, not just whether it is positive or negative, must be considered when assessing prevalence of human cysticercosis antigens.     

Health Risk or Resource? Gradual and Independent Association between Self-Rated Health and Mortality Persists Over 30 Years

Background

Poor self-rated health (SRH) is associated with increased mortality. However, most studies only adjust for few health risk factors and/or do not analyse whether this association is consistent also for intermediate categories of SRH and for follow-up periods exceeding 5–10 years. This study examined whether the SRH-mortality association remained significant 30 years after assessment when adjusting for a wide range of known clinical, behavioural and socio-demographic risk factors.

Methods

We followed-up 8,251 men and women aged ≥16 years who participated 1977–79 in a community based health study and were anonymously linked with the Swiss National Cohort (SNC) until the end of 2008. Covariates were measured at baseline and included education, marital status, smoking, medical history, medication, blood glucose and pressure.

Results

92.8% of the original study participants could be linked to a census, mortality or emigration record of the SNC. Loss to follow-up 1980–2000 was 5.8%. Even after 30 years of follow-up and after adjustment for all covariates, the association between SRH and all-cause mortality remained strong and estimates almost linearly increased from “excellent” (reference: hazard ratio, HR 1) to “good” (men: HR 1.07 95% confidence interval 0.92–1.24, women: 1.22, 1.01–1.46) to “fair” (1.41, 1.18–1.68; 1.39, 1.14–1.70) to “poor”(1.61, 1.15–2.25; 1.49, 1.07–2.06) to “very poor” (2.85, 1.25–6.51; 1.30, 0.18–9.35). Persons answering the SRH question with “don''t know” (1.87, 1.21–2.88; 1.26, 0.87–1.83) had also an increased mortality risk; this was pronounced in men and in the first years of follow-up.

Conclusions

SRH is a strong and “dose-dependent” predictor of mortality. The association was largely independent from covariates and remained significant after decades. This suggests that SRH provides relevant and sustained health information beyond classical risk factors or medical history and reflects salutogenetic rather than pathogenetic pathways.     

Rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis with the Xpert MTB/RIF assay in high burden countries: a cost-effectiveness analysis

Background

Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) is a promising new rapid diagnostic technology for tuberculosis (TB) that has characteristics that suggest large-scale roll-out. However, because the test is expensive, there are concerns among TB program managers and policy makers regarding its affordability for low- and middle-income settings.

Methods and Findings

We estimate the impact of the introduction of Xpert on the costs and cost-effectiveness of TB care using decision analytic modelling, comparing the introduction of Xpert to a base case of smear microscopy and clinical diagnosis in India, South Africa, and Uganda. The introduction of Xpert increases TB case finding in all three settings; from 72%–85% to 95%–99% of the cohort of individuals with suspected TB, compared to the base case. Diagnostic costs (including the costs of testing all individuals with suspected TB) also increase: from US$28–US$49 to US$133–US$146 and US$137–US$151 per TB case detected when Xpert is used “in addition to” and “as a replacement of” smear microscopy, respectively. The incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for using Xpert “in addition to” smear microscopy, compared to the base case, range from US$41–$110 per disability adjusted life year (DALY) averted. Likewise the ICERS for using Xpert “as a replacement of” smear microscopy range from US$52–$138 per DALY averted. These ICERs are below the World Health Organization (WHO) willingness to pay threshold.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that Xpert is a cost-effective method of TB diagnosis, compared to a base case of smear microscopy and clinical diagnosis of smear-negative TB in low- and middle-income settings where, with its ability to substantially increase case finding, it has important potential for improving TB diagnosis and control. The extent of cost-effectiveness gain to TB programmes from deploying Xpert is primarily dependent on current TB diagnostic practices. Further work is required during scale-up to validate these findings. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Regular health checks: cross-sectional survey

Objective

To investigate whether Danish providers of general health checks present a balanced account of possible benefits and harms on their websites and whether the health checks are evidence-based.

Methods and Design

Cross-sectional study. The search engines Google and Jubii (Danish) were in July and August 2009 used to identify 56 websites using Danish search terms for “health check” and “health examination”. The content of the websites were evaluated using a checklist with 15 officially recommended information items. All tests offered through the websites were registered. The evidence for tests offered through at least 10% of the websites was identified in structured searches using PubMed and The Cochrane Library.

Results

We found 36 different tests on 56 websites offering health checks. Twenty one tests were offered on at least 10% of the websites. Seventeen (81%) of these tests were unsupported by evidence, or there was evidence against them for screening purposes. We found evidence supporting screening using body-mass-index, blood pressure, cholesterol, and faecal occult blood testing. None of the websites mentioned possible risks or harms. The websites presented a median of 1 of the 15 information items; the highest number from any provider was 2.

Conclusions

Information from Danish providers of health checks was sparse and tests were often offered against existing evidence or despite lack of evidence. None of the included websites mentioned potential risks or harms.     

Profiling dizziness in older primary care patients: an empirical study

Background

The diagnostic approach to dizzy, older patients is not straightforward as many organ systems can be involved and evidence for diagnostic strategies is lacking. A first differentiation in diagnostic subtypes or profiles may guide the diagnostic process of dizziness and can serve as a classification system in future research. In the literature this has been done, but based on pathophysiological reasoning only.

Objective

To establish a classification of diagnostic profiles of dizziness based on empirical data.

Design

Cross-sectional study.

Participants and Setting

417 consecutive patients of 65 years and older presenting with dizziness to 45 primary care physicians in the Netherlands from July 2006 to January 2008.

Methods

We performed tests, including patient history, and physical and additional examination, previously selected by an international expert panel and based on an earlier systematic review. We used the results of these tests in a principal component analysis for exploration, data-reduction and finally differentiation into diagnostic dizziness profiles.

Results

Demographic data and the results of the tests yielded 221 variables, of which 49 contributed to the classification of dizziness into six diagnostic profiles, that may be named as follows: “frailty”, “psychological”, “cardiovascular”, “presyncope”, “non-specific dizziness” and “ENT”. These explained 32% of the variance.

Conclusions

Empirically identified components classify dizziness into six profiles. This classification takes into account the heterogeneity and multicausality of dizziness and may serve as starting point for research on diagnostic strategies and can be a first step in an evidence based diagnostic approach of dizzy older patients.     

Household tobacco smoke and admission weight predict severe bronchiolitis in infants independent of deprivation: prospective cohort study

Objectives

To examine demographic, environmental and clinical factors associated with severe bronchiolitis in infants admitted to hospital and quantify the independent effects of these factors.

Design

Prospective cohort study.

Setting

Alder Hey Children''s Hospital, Liverpool, United Kingdom.

Participants

378 infants admitted to hospital with a diagnosis of bronchiolitis, of whom 299 (79%) were antigen positive to respiratory syncytial virus (RSV).

Outcome

Severity of disease during admission, defined as “no need for supplemental oxygen” (reference group), “any need for supplemental oxygen” and “any need for mechanical ventilation”.

Results

Univariate analysis found male sex (p = 0.035) and tobacco smoking by a household member (p<0.001) were associated with need for both supplemental oxygen and mechanical ventilation. Premature birth, low gestation, low birth weight, low admission weight and low corrected age on admission were also associated with need for mechanical ventilation (all p≤0.002). Deprivation scores (IMD 2004) were significantly higher in households where a member smoked compared to non-smoking households (p<0.001). The odds of smoking predicted by deprivation were 7 times higher (95%CI (3.59, 14.03)), when comparing the least and most deprived quintiles of the study population. Family history of atopic disease and deprivation score were not associated with severe disease. Multivariate multinomial logistic regression which initially included all covariates, found household tobacco smoking (adjusted OR = 2.45, 95%CI (1.60, 3.74) predicted need for oxygen supplementation. Household tobacco smoking (adjusted OR = 5.49, (2.78, 10.83)) and weight (kg) on admission (adjusted OR = 0.51, (0.40, 0.65)) were both significant predictors in the final model for mechanical ventilation. The same associations and similar size of effects were found when only children with proven RSV infection were included in analysis.

Conclusions

Low admission weight and householder tobacco smoking increased the risk of severe bronchiolitis in infants admitted to hospital. These effects were independent of a standard deprivation measure. NIHR Study Ref. DHCS/G121/10.     

Retention in care and connection to care among HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy in Africa: estimation via a sampling-based approach

Introduction

Current estimates of retention among HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in Africa consider patients who are lost to follow-up (LTF) as well as those who die shortly after their last clinic visit to be no longer in care and to represent limitations in access to care. Yet many lost patients may have “silently” transferred and deaths shortly after the last clinic visit more likely represent limitations in clinical care rather than access to care after initial linkage.

Methods

We evaluated HIV-infected adults initiating ART from 1/1/2004 to 9/30/2007 at a clinic in rural Uganda. A representative sample of lost patients was tracked in the community to obtain updated information about care at other ART sites. Updated outcomes were incorporated with probability weights to obtain “corrected” estimates of retention for the entire clinic population. We used the competing risks approach to estimate “connection to care”—the percentage of patients accessing care over time (including those who died while in care).

Results

Among 3,628 patients, 829 became lost, 128 were tracked and in 111, updated information was obtained. Of 111, 79 (71%) were alive and 35/48 (73%) of patients interviewed in person were in care and on ART. Patient retention for the clinic population assuming lost patients were not in care was 82.3%, 68.9%, and 60.1% at 1, 2 and 3 years. Incorporating updated care information from the sample of lost patients increased estimates of patient retention to 85.8% to 90.9%, 78.9% to 86.2% and 75.8% to 84.7% at the same time points.

Conclusions

Accounting for “silent transfers” and early deaths increased estimates of patient retention and connection to care substantially. Deaths soon after the last clinic visit (potentially reflecting limitations in clinical effectiveness) and disconnection from care among patient who were alive each accounted for approximately half of failures of retention.     

The impact of a filariasis control program on Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea

Background

Annual mass drug administration (MDA) over five years is the WHO''s recommended strategy to eliminate lymphatic filariasis (LF). Some experts, however, consider that longer periods of treatment might be necessary in certain high prevalence and transmission environments based upon past unsuccessful field experience and modelling.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To evaluate predictors of success in a LF control program we conducted an ecological study during a pre-existing MDA program. We studied 27 villages in Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea, from two areas with different infection rates before MDA. We undertook surveys to collect information on variables potentially having an influence on the outcome of the program, including epidemiological (baseline prevalence of infection, immigration rate), entomological (vector density) and operational (treatment coverage, vector control strategies) variables. The success in a village was defined using variables related to the infection (circulating filarial antigenemia prevalence <1%) and transmission (antigenemia prevalence <1 in 1000 children born since start of MDA). 8709 people were involved in the MDA program and average coverage rates were around 70%. The overall prevalence of filariasis fell from an initial 17.91% to 3.76% at round 5 (p<0.001). Viewed on a village by village basis, 12/27 (44%) villages achieved success. In multivariate analysis, low baseline prevalence was the only factor predicting both success in reducing infection rates (OR 19,26; CI 95% 1,12 to 331,82) and success in preventing new infections (OR 27,44; CI 95% 1,05 to 719,6). Low vector density and the use of an optimal vector control strategy were also associated with success in reducing infection rates, but this did not reach statistical significance.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results provide the data that supports the recommendation that high endemic areas may require longer duration MDA programs, or alternative control strategies.     

The teacher, the physician and the person: how faculty's teaching performance influences their role modelling

Objective

Previous studies identified different typologies of role models (as teacher/supervisor, physician and person) and explored which of faculty''s characteristics could distinguish good role models. The aim of this study was to explore how and to which extent clinical faculty''s teaching performance influences residents'' evaluations of faculty''s different role modelling statuses, especially across different specialties.

Methods

In a prospective multicenter multispecialty study of faculty''s teaching performance, we used web-based questionnaires to gather empirical data from residents. The main outcome measures were the different typologies of role modelling. The predictors were faculty''s overall teaching performance and faculty''s teaching performance on specific domains of teaching. The data were analyzed using multilevel regression equations.

Results

In total 219 (69% response rate) residents filled out 2111 questionnaires about 423 (96% response rate) faculty. Faculty''s overall teaching performance influenced all role model typologies (OR: from 8.0 to 166.2). For the specific domains of teaching, overall, all three role model typologies were strongly associated with “professional attitude towards residents” (OR: 3.28 for teacher/supervisor, 2.72 for physician and 7.20 for the person role). Further, the teacher/supervisor role was strongly associated with “feedback” and “learning climate” (OR: 3.23 and 2.70). However, the associations of the specific domains of teaching with faculty''s role modelling varied widely across specialties.

Conclusion

This study suggests that faculty can substantially enhance their role modelling by improving their teaching performance. The amount of influence that the specific domains of teaching have on role modelling differs across specialties.     

Do Facial Expressions Develop before Birth?

Background

Fetal facial development is essential not only for postnatal bonding between parents and child, but also theoretically for the study of the origins of affect. However, how such movements become coordinated is poorly understood. 4-D ultrasound visualisation allows an objective coding of fetal facial movements.

Methodology/Findings

Based on research using facial muscle movements to code recognisable facial expressions in adults and adapted for infants, we defined two distinct fetal facial movements, namely “cry-face-gestalt” and “laughter- gestalt,” both made up of up to 7 distinct facial movements. In this conceptual study, two healthy fetuses were then scanned at different gestational ages in the second and third trimester. We observed that the number and complexity of simultaneous movements increased with gestational age. Thus, between 24 and 35 weeks the mean number of co-occurrences of 3 or more facial movements increased from 7% to 69%. Recognisable facial expressions were also observed to develop. Between 24 and 35 weeks the number of co-occurrences of 3 or more movements making up a “cry-face gestalt” facial movement increased from 0% to 42%. Similarly the number of co-occurrences of 3 or more facial movements combining to a “laughter-face gestalt” increased from 0% to 35%. These changes over age were all highly significant.

Significance

This research provides the first evidence of developmental progression from individual unrelated facial movements toward fetal facial gestalts. We propose that there is considerable potential of this method for assessing fetal development: Subsequent discrimination of normal and abnormal fetal facial development might identify health problems in utero.     

Risk behaviors and reasons for not getting tested for HIV among men who have sex with men: an online survey in Peru

Background

Men who have sex with men (MSM) account for the greatest burden of the HIV epidemic in Peru. Given that MSM are frequent users of the Internet, understanding the risk behaviors and the reasons for not getting tested among MSM who surf the Internet may improve the tailoring of future online behavioral interventions.

Methods

From October 2007 to April 2008, we conducted an online survey among users of seven Peruvian gay websites.

Results

We received 1,481 surveys, 1,301 of which were included in the analysis. The median age of the participants was 22.5 years (range 12 – 71), 67% were homosexual, and the remainder was bisexual. Of survey respondents, 49.4% had never been tested for HIV and only 11.3% were contacted in-person during the last year by peer health educators from the Peruvian Ministry of Health and NGOs. Additionally, 50.8% had unprotected anal or vaginal sex at last intercourse, and a significant percentage reported a condom broken (22.1%), slipped (16.4%) or sexual intercourse initiated without wearing a condom (39.1%). The most common reasons for not getting tested for HIV among high-risk MSM were “I fear the consequences of a positive test result” (n = 55, 34.4%), and “I don''t know where I can get tested” (n = 50, 31.3%).

Conclusions

A small percentage of Peruvian MSM who answered our online survey, were reached by traditional peer-based education programs. Given that among high-risk MSM, fear of a positive test result and lack of awareness of places where to get tested are the most important reasons for not taking an HIV test, Internet interventions aimed at motivating HIV testing should work to reduce fear of testing and increase awareness of places that offer free HIV testing services to MSM.     

What Will It Take to Eliminate Pediatric HIV? Reaching WHO Target Rates of Mother-to-Child HIV Transmission in Zimbabwe: A Model-Based Analysis

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) has called for the “virtual elimination” of pediatric HIV: a mother-to-child HIV transmission (MTCT) risk of less than 5%. We investigated uptake of prevention of MTCT (PMTCT) services, infant feeding recommendations, and specific drug regimens necessary to achieve this goal in Zimbabwe.

Methods and Findings

We used a computer model to simulate a cohort of HIV-infected, pregnant/breastfeeding women (mean age, 24 y; mean CD4, 451/µl; breastfeeding duration, 12 mo). Three PMTCT regimens were evaluated: (1) single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP), (2) WHO 2010 guidelines'' “Option A” (zidovudine in pregnancy, infant nevirapine throughout breastfeeding for women without advanced disease, lifelong combination antiretroviral therapy for women with advanced disease), and (3) WHO “Option B” (pregnancy/breastfeeding-limited combination antiretroviral drug regimens without advanced disease; lifelong antiretroviral therapy with advanced disease). We examined four levels of PMTCT uptake (proportion of pregnant women accessing and adhering to PMTCT services): reported rates in 2008 and 2009 (36% and 56%, respectively) and target goals in 2008 and 2009 (80% and 95%, respectively). The primary model outcome was MTCT risk at weaning.The 2008 sdNVP-based National PMTCT Program led to a projected 12-mo MTCT risk of 20.3%. Improved uptake in 2009 reduced projected risk to 18.0%. If sdNVP were replaced by more effective regimens, with 2009 (56%) uptake, estimated MTCT risk would be 14.4% (Option A) or 13.4% (Option B). Even with 95% uptake of Option A or B, projected transmission risks (6.1%–7.7%) would exceed the WHO goal of less than 5%. Only if the lowest published transmission risks were used for each drug regimen, or breastfeeding duration were shortened, would MTCT risks at 95% uptake fall below 5%.

Conclusions

Implementation of the WHO PMTCT guidelines must be accompanied by efforts to improve access to PMTCT services, retain women in care, and support medication adherence throughout pregnancy and breastfeeding, to approach the “virtual elimination” of pediatric HIV in Zimbabwe. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Risk behaviors for reproductive tract infection in women who have sex with women in Beijing, China

Objectives

To assess risk behaviors for reproductive tract infections (RTI) including sexually transmitted infections (STI) among women who have sex with women (WSW) in Beijing, China.

Methods

A cross-sectional study of women recruited from venues and internet outreach analyzed using interviews.

Results

We recruited 224 WSW, among whom were 37 couples. The average age of participants was 25.6 years. Sex with men in the past year was reported by 10.7% of participants. During the past year, 34.3% (77/224) had had >1 sexual partner and 72.4% (162/224) had ever had >1 sexual partner. Condom use in the last sex with a man was reported by 54.2% (13/24) of women; 12.5% (3/24) reported never having used a condom with a man in the past year. In the past year, 13.4% (30/224) reported using sex toys with their female partners; of these, 43.3% (13/30) reported consistent condom use with the sex toys and 36.7% (11/30) had shared sex toys. Among participants 65.2% (120/184) reported that their “G-spot” had been stimulated during sex, 49.2% (59/120) of whom reported bleeding during or after sex. Only 12.5% (8/64) of those never reporting “G spot” stimulation reported bleeding during or after sex (P<0.001).

Conclusions

WSW in Beijing engaged in high-risk sexual behaviors that may carry a substantial risk of being infected with STI/RTI. To implement STI/RTI prevention and intervention among women, women-women sexual behavior should be considered when doing research and intervention programs.     

Investigating helmet promotion for cyclists: results from a randomised study with observation of behaviour, using a semi-automatic video system

Introduction

Half of fatal injuries among bicyclists are head injuries. While helmet use is likely to provide protection, their use often remains rare. We assessed the influence of strategies for promotion of helmet use with direct observation of behaviour by a semi-automatic video system.

Methods

We performed a single-centre randomised controlled study, with 4 balanced randomisation groups. Participants were non-helmet users, aged 18–75 years, recruited at a loan facility in the city of Bordeaux, France. After completing a questionnaire investigating their attitudes towards road safety and helmet use, participants were randomly assigned to three groups with the provision of “helmet only”, “helmet and information” or “information only”, and to a fourth control group. Bikes were labelled with a colour code designed to enable observation of helmet use by participants while cycling, using a 7-spot semi-automatic video system located in the city. A total of 1557 participants were included in the study.

Results

Between October 15th 2009 and September 28th 2010, 2621 cyclists'' movements, made by 587 participants, were captured by the video system. Participants seen at least once with a helmet amounted to 6.6% of all observed participants, with higher rates in the two groups that received a helmet at baseline. The likelihood of observed helmet use was significantly increased among participants of the “helmet only” group (OR = 7.73 [2.09–28.5]) and this impact faded within six months following the intervention. No effect of information delivery was found.

Conclusion

Providing a helmet may be of value, but will not be sufficient to achieve high rates of helmet wearing among adult cyclists. Integrated and repeated prevention programmes will be needed, including free provision of helmets, but also information on the protective effect of helmets and strategies to increase peer and parental pressure.     

Evolvement of uniformity and volatility in the stressed global financial village

Background

In the current era of strong worldwide market couplings the global financial village became highly prone to systemic collapses, events that can rapidly sweep throughout the entire village.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We present a new methodology to assess and quantify inter-market relations. The approach is based on the correlations between the market index, the index volatility, the market Index Cohesive Force and the meta-correlations (correlations between the intra-correlations.) We investigated the relations between six important world markets—U.S., U.K., Germany, Japan, China and India—from January 2000 until December 2010. We found that while the developed “western” markets (U.S., U.K., Germany) are highly correlated, the interdependencies between these markets and the developing “eastern” markets (India and China) are volatile and with noticeable maxima at times of global world events. The Japanese market switches “identity”—it switches between periods of high meta-correlations with the “western” markets and periods when it behaves more similarly to the “eastern” markets.

Conclusions/Significance

The methodological framework presented here provides a way to quantify the evolvement of interdependencies in the global market, evaluate a world financial network and quantify changes in the world inter market relations. Such changes can be used as precursors to the agitation of the global financial village. Hence, the new approach can help to develop a sensitive “financial seismograph” to detect early signs of global financial crises so they can be treated before they develop into worldwide events.     

Controlling tungiasis in an impoverished community: an intervention study

Background

In Brazil, tungiasis is endemic in some resource-poor communities where various domestic and sylvatic animals act as reservoirs for this zoonosis. To determine the effect of control measures on the prevalence and intensity of infestation of human and animal tungiasis, a repeated cross-sectional survey with intervention was carried out.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a traditional fishing community in Northeast Brazil, humans and reservoir animals were treated, and premise-spraying using an insecticide was done, while a second fishing community served as a control. Both communities were followed up 10 times during a 12-month period. At baseline, prevalence of tungiasis was 43% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 35%–51%) and 37% (95% CI: 31%–43%) in control and intervention villages, respectively. During the study, prevalence of tungiasis dropped to 10% (95% CI: 8%–13%; p<0.001) in the intervention village, while the prevalence remained at a high level in the control village. However, after one year, at the end of the study, in both communities the prevalence of the infestation had reached pre-intervention levels. Whereas the intensity of infestation was significantly reduced in the intervention community (p<0.001), and remained low at the end of the study (p<0.001), it did not change in the control village.

Conclusion/Significance

Our study shows that a reduction of prevalence and intensity of infestation is possible, but in impoverished communities a long-lasting reduction of disease occurrence can only be achieved by the regular treatment of infested humans, the elimination of animal reservoirs, and, likely, through environmental changes.

Trial Registration

Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN27670575