Carry-over effects and habitat quality in migratory populations

Determining the factors that influence migratory population abundance has been constrained by the inability to connect events in different periods of the annual cycle. Carry-over effects are events that occur in one season but influence individual success the following season and recent empirical evidence suggests that they may play an important role in migratory population dynamics. Using a long distance migratory shorebird as an example, I incorporate carry-over effects and changes in the relative amount of habitat quality into a density-dependent equilibrium population model. The model uses the example where the quality of habitat on the wintering grounds (nonbreeding season) influences breeding output the following summer (breeding season). Carry-over effects, however, may be manifested in a number of other ways that could influence population dynamics. In the simulations, population declines occur when habitat is lost on the wintering grounds. However, results show that carry-over effects can magnify these declines when a disproportionate amount of high quality habitat is lost the previous winter. Simulations also show that carry-over effects can have a relative, positive impact on population size when the majority of habitat that is lost in the previous season is low quality. In this case, the carry-over interacts with density-dependence the following season producing an additive and positive effect, buffering the population from severe declines. To predict changes in population size of migratory animals, it will be important to determine (i) which demographic factors in which season produce strong carry-over effects and, (ii) not just the amount, but the relative quality of habitat that is lost. If carry-over effects are significant, they could potentially mitigate 'seasonal compensation effects' from density-dependence, leading to exacerbated population declines.     

Relative roles of density and rainfall on the short-term regulation of Mediterraneanwood mouse <Emphasis Type="Italic">Apodemus sylvaticus</Emphasis> populations

This study aims to quantify the relative effects of density-dependent (feedback structure) and density-independent climatic factors (rainfall) in regulating the short-term population dynamics of wood mice Apodemus sylvaticus Linnaeus, 1758 in three Mediterranean forest plots. Rainfall and density explained additively 62% of variation in population growth rates (38 and 24%, respectively), with no differences among study plots. Population growth rate was positive during autumn–winter and negative during spring–summer during a 2.5-year period. Population rate of change was negatively affected by wood mouse density during the normal breeding season of Mediterranean mice (autumn–winter) but not outside it. Growth rate was positively affected by the cumulative amount of rainfall three months before the normal breeding season, but not during it. Female breeding activity and recruitment did not differ among plots, and was not affected by density or rainfall. However, recruitment was positively affected by density and, marginally, by rainfall. Our results suggest that intraspecific competition (density-dependence) and food availability (rainfall) are equally important factors driving wood mouse population dynamics in Mediterranean forests. Mechanisms underlying density-dependence during the breeding season seemed to be based on food-mediated survival rather than on behaviourally-mediated reproduction. Taken together, these results indicate a high sensitivity of marginal Mediterranean wood mouse populations to the expected climate changes in the Mediterranean region.     

Population regulation and character displacement in a seasonal environment

Competition has negative effects on population size and also drives ecological character displacement, that is, evolutionary divergence to utilize different portions of the resource spectrum. Many species undergo an annual cycle composed of a lean season of intense competition for resources and a breeding season. We use a quantitative genetic model to study the effects of differential reproductive output in the summer or breeding season on character displacement in the winter or nonbreeding season. The model is developed with reference to the avian family of Old World leaf warblers (Phylloscopidae), which breed in the temperate regions of Eurasia and winter in tropical and subtropical regions. Empirical evidence implicates strong winter density-dependent regulation driven by food shortage, but paradoxically, the relative abundance of each species appears to be determined by conditions in the summer. We show how population regulation in the two seasons becomes linked, with higher reproductive output by one species in the summer resulting in its evolution to occupy a larger portion of niche space in the winter. We find short-term ecological processes and longer-term evolutionary processes to have comparable effects on a species population size. This modeling approach can also be applied to other differential effects of productivity across seasons.     

Density-dependent dispersal may explain the mid-season crash in some aphid populations

Aphid population dynamics during the season show a characteristic pattern with rapid increase in numbers at the beginning followed by a sudden drop in the middle of the season. This pattern is usually associated with predation and/or change in food quality during the summer. By developing a mechanistic model of aphid population dynamics we show that this pattern can arise from density-dependent dispersal behaviour of aphids. The dynamics produced by the model were similar to those observed in real populations of the alder aphid (Pterocallis alni). The two mechanisms required for these oscillations to arise were the perception of density through the number of contacts with other individuals and the inter-generational transfer of information (the maternal effect). Both mechanisms are examples of delayed density-dependence and, therefore, this study adds to the evidence that delayed density-dependence might cause complex population dynamics. To reproduce the seasonal dynamics of the alder aphid with the model, the maternal effect was essential, indicating that this could be an important factor in alder aphid dynamics. According to our model, external regulations (e.g., predation and/or change in food quality) were not required to explain the highly oscillatory population dynamics of aphids during a season.     

The population ecology of Rattus exulans on Tiritiri Matangi Island,and a model of comparative population dynamics in New Zealand

Abstract

On Tiritiri, a small predator-free island in northern New Zealand, kiore (Rattus exulans) were live and snap trapped in grassland and forest. In both habitats, kiore abundance peaked in late summer/autumn. The increase followed a 3 month breeding season during which females produced two to three litters, each averaging 7 young. During the population decline in autumn and winter, animals lost weight. Few bred in the breeding season of their birth and none lived to breed in a second breeding season, so the population consisted of distinct age cohorts. These patterns may relate to a highly seasonal food supply.

Kiore elsewhere in New Zealand show seasonal breeding, but the length of breeding, sexual maturation, and litter size vary. Other studies of kiore in the Pacific show less marked seasonal fluctuations, longer breeding seasons, and smaller litters. We propose a model to explain the variation in rodent demography in New Zealand. The model is based on the seasonal availability of food, along with the modifying influences of predation and dispersal.     

Interaction between seasonal density-dependence structures and length of the seasons explain the geographical structure of the dynamics of voles in Hokkaido: an example of seasonal forcing

The grey-sided vole (Clethrionomys rufocanus) is distributed over the entire island of Hokkaido, Japan, across which it exhibits multi-annual density cycles in only parts of the island (the north-eastern part); in the remaining part of the island, only seasonal density changes occur. Using annual sampling of 189 grey-sided vole populations, we deduced the geographical structure in their second-order density dependence. Building upon our earlier suggestion, we deduce the seasonal density-dependent structure for these populations. Strong direct and delayed density dependence is found to occur during winter, whereas no density dependence is seen during the summer period. The direct density dependence during winter may be seen as a result of food being limited during that season: the delayed density dependence during the winter is consistent with vole-specialized predators (e.g. the least weasel) responding to vole densities so as to have a negative effect on the net growth rate of voles in the following year. We conclude that the observed geographical structure of the population dynamics may be properly seen as a result of the length of the summer in interaction with the differential seasonal density-dependent structure. Altogether, this indicates that the geographical pattern in multi-annual density dynamics in the grey-sided vole may be a result of seasonal forcing.     

Delayed female reproduction in equilibrium and chaotic populations

Behavioural and life history polymorphisms are often observed in animal populations. We analyse the timing of maturation and reproduction in risky and resource-limited environments. Field and laboratory evidence suggests that female voles and mice, for example, can adjust their breeding according to the level of risk to their own survival and to survival probabilities and recruitment of young produced under different environmental conditions. Under risky or harsh conditions breeding can be postponed until later in the current breeding season or even to the next breeding season. We develop a population dynamics and life history model for polymorphism in reproduction (co-existence of breeding and non-breeding behaviours) of females in an age-structured population, with two temporally distinct mating events within the breeding season. We assume that, after overwintering, the females can breed in spring and again in summer or they can delay breeding in spring and breed in summer only. Young females born in spring can either mature and breed in summer or stay immature and postpone breeding over the winter to the next breeding season. We show that an evolutionarily stable breeding strategy is either an age-structured combination of pure breeding behaviours (old females breed and young delay maturity) or a mixed breeding behaviour within age-classes (a fraction of females breed and the rest of the age class postpones breeding). Co-occurrence of mixed reproductive behaviour in spring and summer within a single breeding season is observed in fluctuating populations only. The reproductive patterns depend on intraspecific, possibly interspecific, and ecological factors. The density dependence (e.g. social suppression) and predation risk are shown to be possible evolutionary mechanisms in adjusting the relative proportions of the different but co-existing reproductive behaviours.     

Effects of density-dependence and climate on the dynamics of a Svalbard reindeer population

To determine the main factors affecting the population dynamics of Svalbard reindeer, we analysed 21 yr of annual censuses, including data on population size, recruitment rate (calves per female) and mortality (number of deaths), from the Reindalen reindeer population. In accordance with previous studies on population dynamics of Svalbard reindeer, we found large inter-annual variation in population size, mortality and recruitment rates within the study area. Population size decreased in years with low recruitment rate as well as high winter mortality and vice versa. Apparently. the fluctuations were due to both direct density-dependent food limitation and variation in winter climate associated with high precipitation and icing of the feeding range. We found no delayed density-dependence or effect of climatic conditions during summer on the population dynamics. The mortality during die-off years was mainly of calves and very old individuals, indicating that the population was more vulnerable to high die oft in years following high recruitment rate. These results suggest an unstable interaction between the reindeer population and its food supply in these predator-free environments.     

Seasonal population dynamics of Neoechinorhynchus qinghaiensis in the carp, Gymnocypris przewalskii przewalskii, from Qinghai Lake, China

Studies on the seasonal population dynamics of Neoechinorhynchus qinghaiensis (Acanthocephala: Neoechinorhynchidae) in its fish host Gymnocypris przewalskii przewalskii in the Qinghai Lake, China, were carried out with samples taken in May 1991, August 1992, November 1992 and February 1993. Prevalences were higher than 44% in all seasons. The mean intensity of infection was above 124 worms per fish. The maximum intensity of worms recovered from a single fish was 1402 in the autumn of 1992. Differences in the mean abundance, mean intensity and prevalence are not statistically significant relative to season and this is likely to be related to the stable temperatures recorded at the bottom of Qinghai Lake. Over-dispersed distributions of N. qinghaiensis in the host population, due to heterogeneity and feeding habits, were observed in all seasons. The size composition of both sexes of N. qinghaiensis showed males to be less than 3.5 mm and females between 0.5 and 4.25 mm, with the main recruitment phase in the worm populations occurring in the autumn, extending through winter and spring with the lowest recruitment occurring in the summer. The maturation and copulation of worms were mainly focused in the summer season. The sex ratio of female to male was both high in winter (1.51:1) and spring (1.48:1). The higher proportion of females and the change in the worm sex ratio in winter can be attributed to the reduced longevity of male worms. As immature male worms exhibit a higher proportion of the worm population than females in all seasons, further studies are needed to determine if such a situation compensates for the shorter life span of males.     

Some population dynamics of the Bank vole, Clethrionomys glareolus and the Wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus in mixed woodland

The population dynamics of Clethrionomys glareolus Schr.and Apodemus sylvaticus (L.) in mixed woodland in County Durham, were studied from March 1963 to January 1965. Two areas of 0.9 ha (2.25 acres) each were trapped monthly and information was obtained on population size, reproduction, survival and growth from marked animals.
Clethrionomys populations increased from June to an autumn peak; then declined, at first rapidly, but then more slowly in winter, before reaching a spring trough. The breeding season of Clethrionomys was from May to December; juveniles were caught from mid-June to December. Survival was in general poor during the breeding season but good at other times. Survival of young born early in the summer was particularly good on one of the areas and some individuals lived long enough to breed in two successive years. On both areas young born early in the year matured rapidly and bred in the year of their birth. Young born in late summer and early autumn ceased growing at a weight of about 14.5 g, remained immature, and formed the bulk of the overwintering population. Growth was completed at the time of sexual maturation the following spring.
Trapping failed to provide adequate samples of juvenile Apodemus in summer to account for subsequent recruitment. The possibility that a substantial proportion of the adult population of this species was also either trap shy or had emigrated temporarily is discussed. Breeding occurred from April until the following January, but the numbers trapped remained very low throughout the early months of the breeding season. Large scale recruitment of young fecund animals into the trap-revealed population occurred during the autumn. Apodemus males continued to grow rapidly during the winter.     

The functional dynamics of neutrophils during different seasons in zebu cattle

The present study was conducted in Hariana and Sahiwal cows to study neutrophil functional dynamics during different seasons (summer, rainy and winter) in terms of expression of toll like receptor 2 & 4, neutrophils’ apoptosis in terms of caspase 3, 7 activities, and transmembrane mitochondrial potential. Blood samples were collected from Hariana (n = 10) and Sahiwal cows (n = 10) throughout the year to evaluate the effects of season on neutrophil dynamics. In each season, eight blood samples were collected from each animal (twice in each month). Toll-like receptor 2 and 4 expressions were significantly (p < 0.05) decreased in neutrophils during summer season as compared to rainy and winter seasons. Significantly, (p < 0.05) higher caspase 3 & 7 activities and significantly higher per cent of neutrophils with low transmembrane mitochondrial potential indicating its enhanced apoptosis were found during extreme summer and lowest during winter. Both Sahiwal and Hariana breeds exhibited similar trends in neutrophil apoptosis. The results of the study evidently indicate that neutrophil competence varies from season to season in zebu cattle and could determine the possible incidences of infections in these cows. Hot-humid season could be conducive for microbial infections owing to accelerated apoptosis of neutrophils and down regulation of TLR2 and TLR4 of immune cells of zebu cattle.     

Population dynamics of small mammals in semi-arid regions: a comparative study of demographic variability in two rodent species

The seasonally determined demographic structure of two semi-arid rodents, both agricultural pest species (the leaf-eared mouse (Phyllotis darwini) in Chile and the multimammate mouse (Mastomys natalensis) in Tanzania), is analysed using capture-mark-recapture (CMR) statistical models and measures for elasticity (the relative change in the growth rate due to a relative unit change in the parameter of concern) derived from projection linear matrix models. We demonstrate that reproduction and survival during the breeding season contribute approximately equally to population growth in the leaf-eared mouse, whereas the multimammate mouse is characterized by a more clearly defined seasonal structure into breeding and non-breeding seasons and that reproduction contributes far more than survival during the breeding season. On this basis, we discuss evolutionary and applied (pest control) issues. Regarding the evolution of life histories (leading to a maximization of the overall net annual growth rate), we suggest that for the leaf-eared mouse, features favouring survival throughout the year will provide selective value, but that during the main breeding season, features favouring reproduction and survival are about equally favourable. For the multimammate mouse, features favouring survival are particularly important outside the breeding season, whereas during the breeding season features favouring reproduction are more important. Regarding pest control (aiming at reducing the overall net annual growth rate), we suggest that (ignoring economic considerations) affecting survival outside the main breeding season is particularly effective for the leaf-eared mouse, a feature that is even more the case for the multimammate mouse. In sum, we demonstrate through this comparative study that much is to be learnt from studying the dynamics of fluctuating small rodents-a focal issue within much of population ecology.     

Climate and spatio-temporal variation in the population dynamics of a long distance migrant, the white stork

1. A central question in ecology is to separate the relative contribution of density dependence and stochastic influences to annual fluctuations in population size. Here we estimate the deterministic and stochastic components of the dynamics of different European populations of white stork Ciconia ciconia. We then examined whether annual changes in population size was related to the climate during the breeding period (the 'tap hypothesis' sensu Saether, Sutherland & Engen (2004, Advances in Ecological Research, 35, 185 209) or during the nonbreeding period, especially in the winter areas in Africa (the 'tube hypothesis'). 2. A general characteristic of the population dynamics of this long-distance migrant is small environmental stochasticity and strong density regulation around the carrying capacity with short return times to equilibrium. 3. Annual changes in the size of the eastern European populations were correlated by rainfall in the wintering areas in Africa as well as local weather in the breeding areas just before arrival and in the later part of the breeding season and regional climate variation (North Atlantic Oscillation). This indicates that weather influences the population fluctuations of white storks through losses of sexually mature individuals as well as through an effect on the number of individuals that manages to establish themselves in the breeding population. Thus, both the tap and tube hypothesis explains climate influences on white stork population dynamics. 4. The spatial scale of environmental noise after accounting for the local dynamics was 67 km, suggesting that the strong density dependence reduces the synchronizing effects of climate variation on the population dynamics of white stork. 5. Several climate variables reduced the synchrony of the residual variation in population size after accounting for density dependence and demographic stochasticity, indicating that these climate variables had a synchronizing effect on the population fluctuations. In contrast, other climatic variables acted as desynchronizing agents. 6. Our results illustrate that evaluating the effects of common environmental variables on the spatio-temporal variation in population dynamics require estimates and modelling of their influence on the local dynamics.     

First pairing in Snow Geese Anser caerulescens: at what age and at what time of year does it occur?

In migratory birds, the place and time of pair formation are important parameters for population structure and dynamics. Geese are not only migratory but also exhibit long-term monogamy, and therefore the first pairing event in a bird's lifetime is of particular importance. Through behavioural observations of young, known-age, marked birds conducted on the wintering grounds during three winter seasons we investigated two aspects of the timing of first pair formation in the Wrangel Island population of Snow Geese Anser caerulescens : (1) the age at which birds first form pair bonds, and (2) the seasonal pattern of first pair formation. Wrangel Island Snow Geese paired considerably later in life than Snow Geese from a low-Arctic population: almost none of the birds formed pairs in their second winter, and many were still in sibling groups for at least part of that season. The proportion of birds in pairs continued to increase until at least 5 years of age. Most pairing took place during the observation periods, and in general the proportion of birds in pair bonds increased gradually throughout the winter season. The amount of pairing during spring migration or summer varied annually and among cohorts, indicating that even very young birds may be able to form pair bonds quickly if conditions on the breeding grounds are unusually favourable. Pairing later and remaining in family groups longer may be a response to breeding conditions in this high-Arctic colony. Here, productivity is typically low due to harsh weather and predation, whereas Snow Geese breeding in the low Arctic are less restricted and form pairs and start to breed when younger. The fact that most, but not all, pairing takes place on the wintering grounds helps explain why a previous study found a certain amount of gene flow between the two Wrangel Island subpopulations with separate wintering grounds.     

Analysis of regional species distribution models based on radio-telemetry datasets from multiple small-scale studies

The identification of core habitat areas and resulting prediction maps are vital tools for land managers. Often, agencies have large datasets from multiple studies over time that could be combined for a more informed and complete picture of a species. Colorado Parks and Wildlife has a large database for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) including 11 radio-telemetry studies completed over 12 years (1997–2008) across northwestern Colorado. We divided the 49,470-km² study area into 1-km² grids with the number of sage-grouse locations in each grid cell that contained at least 1 location counted as the response variable. We used a generalized linear mixed model (GLMM) using land cover variables as fixed effects and individual birds and populations as random effects to predict greater sage-grouse location counts during breeding, summer, and winter seasons. The mixed effects model enabled us to model correlations that may exist in grouped data (e.g., correlations among individuals and populations). We found only individual groupings accounted for variation in the summer and breeding seasons, but not the winter season. The breeding and summer seasonal models predicted sage-grouse presence in the currently delineated populations for Colorado, but we found little evidence supporting a winter season model. According to our models, about 50% of the study area in Colorado is considered highly or moderately suitable habitat in both the breeding and summer seasons. As oil and gas development and other landscape changes occur in this portion of Colorado, knowledge of where management actions can be accomplished or possible restoration can occur becomes more critical. These seasonal models provide data-driven, distribution maps that managers and biologists can use for identification and exploration when investigating greater sage-grouse issues across the Colorado range. Using historic data for future decisions on species management while accounting for issues found from combining datasets allows land managers the flexibility to use all information available. © 2013 The Wildlife Society.     

Hantavirus infections in fluctuating host populations: the role of maternal antibodies

Infected females may transfer maternal antibodies (MatAbs) to their offspring, which may then be transiently protected against infections the mother has encountered. However, the role of maternal protection in infectious disease dynamics in wildlife has largely been neglected. Here, we investigate the effects of Puumala hantavirus (PUUV)-specific MatAbs on PUUV dynamics, using 7 years'' data from a cyclic bank vole population in Finland. For the first time to our knowledge, we partition seropositivity data from a natural population into separate dynamic patterns for MatAbs and infection. The likelihood of young of the year carrying PUUV-specific MatAbs during the breeding season correlated positively with infection prevalence in the overwintered parent population in the preceding spring. The probability of PUUV infection varied between seasons (highest in spring, lowest in late summer) and depended on population structure, but was also, in late autumn, notably, negatively related to summer MatAb prevalence, as well as to infection prevalence earlier in the breeding season. Hence, our results suggest that high infection prevalence in the early breeding season leads to a high proportion of transiently immune young individuals, which causes delays in transmission. This suggests, in turn, that MatAb protection has the potential to affect infection dynamics in natural populations.     

The population dynamics of the voleClethrionomys rufocanus in Hokkaido, Japan

Population dynamics of the gray sided-vole,Clethrionomys rufocanus, in Hokkaido, Japan were described on the basis of 225 time series (being from 12 to 31 years long); 194 of the time series have a length of 23 years or longer. The time series were classified into 11 groups according to geographic proximity and topographic characteristics of the island of Hokkaido. Mean abundance varied among populations from 1.07 to 21.07 individuals per 150 trap-nights. The index of variability for population fluctuation (s-index) ranged from 0.204 to 0.629. Another index for population variability (amplitude on log-10 scale) ranged from 0.811 to 2.743. Mean abundance and variability of populations were higher in the more northern and eastern regions of the island. Most populations, except for the southernmost populations, exhibited significant direct density-dependence in population growth. Detection rate for delayed density-dependence varied among groups from 0% to 22.6%. Both direct and delayed density-dependence tended to be stronger in the more northern and eastern populations. The proportion of cyclic populations was higher in the northern-eastern areas than that in the southern-western areas. There was a clear gradient from the asynchronous populations in southwest, to the highly synchronized populations in the northeast.     

Seasonal changes in stream salmonid population densities in two tributaries of a boreal river in northern Japan

We examined seasonal changes in population densities of stream salmonids (masu salmon Oncorhynchus masou, white-spotted charr Salvelinus leucomaenis, and rainbow trout O. mykiss) in two tributaries of the Shoro River, eastern Hokkaido, Japan. In one small tributary, water temperature was relatively high during the winter, and populations of salmon and trout increased through immigration at this time of the year, becoming dominant components of the salmonid assemblage; the density of charr in this stream decreased during the winter, but charr was dominant during the summer. In another medium-sized tributary, the water temperature fell to close to 0°C during the winter, and densities of salmon and charr decreased in this season, through emigration; trout were very rare in this stream. Seasonal patterns of stream salmonid densities vary among species and between localities, resulting in seasonal changes in species composition. For a comprehensive understanding of population processes, a whole-river survey across seasons will be necessary.     

Modeling the Seasonal Adaptation of Circadian Clocks by Changes in the Network Structure of the Suprachiasmatic Nucleus

The dynamics of circadian rhythms needs to be adapted to day length changes between summer and winter. It has been observed experimentally, however, that the dynamics of individual neurons of the suprachiasmatic nucleus (SCN) does not change as the seasons change. Rather, the seasonal adaptation of the circadian clock is hypothesized to be a consequence of changes in the intercellular dynamics, which leads to a phase distribution of electrical activity of SCN neurons that is narrower in winter and broader during summer. Yet to understand this complex intercellular dynamics, a more thorough understanding of the impact of the network structure formed by the SCN neurons is needed. To that effect, we propose a mathematical model for the dynamics of the SCN neuronal architecture in which the structure of the network plays a pivotal role. Using our model we show that the fraction of long-range cell-to-cell connections and the seasonal changes in the daily rhythms may be tightly related. In particular, simulations of the proposed mathematical model indicate that the fraction of long-range connections between the cells adjusts the phase distribution and consequently the length of the behavioral activity as follows: dense long-range connections during winter lead to a narrow activity phase, while rare long-range connections during summer lead to a broad activity phase. Our model is also able to account for the experimental observations indicating a larger light-induced phase-shift of the circadian clock during winter, which we show to be a consequence of higher synchronization between neurons. Our model thus provides evidence that the variations in the seasonal dynamics of circadian clocks can in part also be understood and regulated by the plasticity of the SCN network structure.     

Population dynamics of two species of dragon lizards in arid Australia: the effects of rainfall

The population dynamics of two species of agamid (dragon) lizards were studied in the Simpson Desert, central Australia, over a period of 7 years, and modelled in relation to rainfall. Both species have annual life cycles, with adults predominating during the breeding season in spring and summer and juveniles predominating in other seasons. Within years, juvenile abundance in both species in autumn and winter was related most strongly to rainfall in the preceding summer and autumn. This pattern suggests that rainfall enhances survival, growth and possibly clutch size and hatching success. Between years, however, rainfall drove successional change in the dominant plant species in the study area, spinifex Triodia basedowii, causing in turn a shift in the relative abundance of the two species. Thus, the central netted dragon Ctenophorus nuchalis was most numerous in 1990 when vegetation cover was <10%, but declined dramatically in abundance after heavy rainfall at the end of that year. In contrast, the military dragon C. isolepis achieved greatest abundance following heavy rains in the summers of 1990 and 1994, when spinifex cover increased to >20%, and remained numerically dominant for much of the study. We suggest that drought-wet cycles periodically reverse the dominance of the two species of Ctenophorus, and perhaps of other lizard species also, thus enhancing local species diversity over time. Further long-term studies are needed to document the population dynamics of other species, and to identify the factors that influence them. Received: 11 September 1998 / Accepted: 10 February 1999