Mortality Prediction in Patients Undergoing Non-Invasive Ventilation in Intermediate Care

Background

Intermediate Care Units (ImCU) have become an alternative scenario to perform Non-Invasive Ventilation (NIV). The limited number of prognostic studies in this population support the need of mortality prediction evaluation in this context.

Objective

The objective of this study is to analyze the performance of Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II and 3 in patients undergoing NIV in an ImCU. Additionally, we searched for new variables that could be useful to customize these scores, in order to improve mortality prediction.

Design

Cohort study with prospectively collected data from all patients admitted to a single center ImCU who received NIV. The SAPS II and 3 scores with their respective predicted mortality rates were calculated. Discrimination and calibration were evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test for the models, respectively. Binary logistic regression was used to identify new variables to customize the scores for mortality prediction in this setting.

Patients

The study included 241 patients consecutively admitted to an ImCU staffed by hospitalists from April 2006 to December 2013.

Key Results

The observed in-hospital mortality was 32.4% resulting in a Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) of 1.35 for SAPS II and 0.68 for SAPS 3. Mortality discrimination based on the AUC was 0.73 for SAPS II and 0.69 for SAPS 3. Customized models including immunosuppression, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), acute pulmonary edema (APE), lactic acid, pCO2 and haemoglobin levels showed better discrimination than old scores with similar calibration power.

Conclusions

These results suggest that SAPS II and 3 should be customized with additional patient-risk factors to improve mortality prediction in patients undergoing NIV in intermediate care.     

A Second Look at the Association between Gender and Mortality on Antiretroviral Therapy

Objective

We assessed the association between gender and mortality on antiretroviral therapy (ART) using identical models with and without sex-specific categories for weight and hemoglobin.

Design

Cohort study of adult patients on ART.

Setting

GHESKIO Clinic in Port-au-Prince, Haiti.

Participants

4,717 ART-naïve adult patients consecutively enrolled on ART at GHESKIO from 2003 to 2008.

Main Outcome Measure

Mortality on ART; multivariable analyses were conducted with and without sex-specific categories for weight and hemoglobin.

Results

In Haiti, male gender was associated with mortality (OR 1.61; 95% CI: 1.30–2.00) in multivariable analyses with hemoglobin and weight included as control variables, but not when sex-specific interactions with hemoglobin and weight were used.

Conclusions

If sex-specific categories are omitted, multivariable analyses indicate a higher risk of mortality for males vs. females of the same weight and hemoglobin. However, because males have higher normal values for weight and hemoglobin, the males in this comparison would generally have poorer health status than the females. This may explain why gender differences in mortality are sometimes observed after controlling for differences in baseline variables when gender-specific interactions with weight and hemoglobin are omitted.     

Costs and Epidemiological Changes of Chronic Diseases: Implications and Challenges for Health Systems

Background

The need to integrate economic and epidemiological aspects in the clinical perspective leads to a proposal for the analysis of health disparities and to an evaluation of the health services and of the new challenges which are now being faced by health system reforms in middle income countries.

Objective

To identify the epidemiological changes, the demand for health services and economic burden from chronic diseases (diabetes and hypertension) in a middle income county.

Methods

We conducted longitudinal analyses of costs and epidemiological changes for diabetes and hypertension in the Mexican health system. The study population included both the insured and uninsured populations. The cost-evaluation method was used, based on the instrumentation and consensus techniques. To estimate the epidemiological changes and financial consequences for 2014–2016, six models were constructed according to the Box-Jenkins technique, using confidence intervals of 95%, and the Box-Pierce test.

Results

Regarding epidemiological changes expected in both diseases for 2014 vs. 2016, an increase is expected, although results predict a greater increase for diabetes, 8–12% in all three studied institutions, (p < .05). Indeed, in the case of diabetes, the increase was 41469 cases for uninsured population (SSA) and 65737 for the insured population (IMSS and ISSSTE). On hypertension cases the increase was 38109 for uninsured vs 62895 for insured. Costs in US$ ranged from $699 to $748 for annual case management per patient in the case of diabetes, and from $485 to $622 in patients with hypertension. Comparing financial consequences of health services required by insured and uninsured populations, the greater increase (23%) will be for the insured population (p < .05). The financial requirements of both diseases will amount to 19.5% of the total budget for the uninsured and 12.5% for the insured population.

Conclusions

If the risk factors and the different health care models remain as they currently are, the economic impact of expected epidemiological changes on the social security system will be particularly strong. Another relevant challenge is the appearance of internal competition in the use and allocation of financial resources with programs for other chronic and infectious diseases.     

Pediatric in-Hospital Death from Infectious Disease in Uganda: Derivation of Clinical Prediction Models

Background

Pediatric hospital mortality from infectious diseases in resource constrained countries remains unacceptably high. Improved methods of risk-stratification can assist in referral decision making and resource allocation. The purpose of this study was to create prediction models for in-hospital mortality among children admitted with suspected infectious diseases.

Methods

This two-site prospective observational study enrolled children between 6 months and 5 years admitted with a proven or suspected infection. Baseline clinical and laboratory variables were collected on enrolled children. The primary outcome was death during admission. Stepwise logistic regression minimizing Akaike’s information criterion was used to identify the most promising multivariate models. The final model was chosen based on parsimony.

Results

1307 children were enrolled consecutively, and 65 (5%) of whom died during their admission. Malaria, pneumonia and gastroenteritis were diagnosed in 50%, 31% and 8% of children, respectively. The primary model included an abnormal Blantyre coma scale, HIV and weight-for-age z-score. This model had an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (95% CI, 0.80–0.89) with a sensitivity and specificity of 83% and 76%, respectively. The positive and negative predictive values were 15% and 99%, respectively. Two alternate models with similar performance characteristics were developed withholding HIV and weight-for-age z-score, for use when these variables are not available.

Conclusions

Risk stratification of children admitted with infectious diseases can be calculated based on several easily measured variables. Risk stratification at admission can be used for allocation of scarce human and physical resources and to guide referral among children admitted to lower level health facilities.     

Accuracy of Assessment of Eligibility for Early Medical Abortion by Community Health Workers in Ethiopia,India and South Africa

Objective

To assess the accuracy of assessment of eligibility for early medical abortion by community health workers using a simple checklist toolkit.

Design

Diagnostic accuracy study.

Setting

Ethiopia, India and South Africa.

Methods

Two hundred seventeen women in Ethiopia, 258 in India and 236 in South Africa were enrolled into the study. A checklist toolkit to determine eligibility for early medical abortion was validated by comparing results of clinician and community health worker assessment of eligibility using the checklist toolkit with the reference standard exam.

Results

Accuracy was over 90% and the negative likelihood ratio <0.1 at all three sites when used by clinician assessors. Positive likelihood ratios were 4.3 in Ethiopia, 5.8 in India and 6.3 in South Africa. When used by community health workers the overall accuracy of the toolkit was 92% in Ethiopia, 80% in India and 77% in South Africa negative likelihood ratios were 0.08 in Ethiopia, 0.25 in India and 0.22 in South Africa and positive likelihood ratios were 5.9 in Ethiopia and 2.0 in India and South Africa.

Conclusion

The checklist toolkit, as used by clinicians, was excellent at ruling out participants who were not eligible, and moderately effective at ruling in participants who were eligible for medical abortion. Results were promising when used by community health workers particularly in Ethiopia where they had more prior experience with use of diagnostic aids and longer professional training. The checklist toolkit assessments resulted in some participants being wrongly assessed as eligible for medical abortion which is an area of concern. Further research is needed to streamline the components of the tool, explore optimal duration and content of training for community health workers, and test feasibility and acceptability.     

A Cohort Study of Morbidity,Mortality and Health Seeking Behavior following Rural Health Center Visits by Children under 12 in Southwestern Uganda

Background

Children discharged from hospitals in developing countries are at high risk of morbidity and mortality. However, few data describe these outcomes among children seen and discharged from rural outpatient centers.

Objective

The objective of this exploratory study was to identify predictors of immediate and follow-up morbidity and mortality among children visiting a rural health center in Uganda.

Methods

Subjects 0–12 years of age seeking care with a caregiver were consecutively enrolled from a single rural health center in Southwestern Uganda. Baseline variables were collected by research nurses and outcomes of referral, admission or death were recorded (immediate events). Death, hospital admission and health seeking occurring during the 30 days following the clinic visit were also determined (follow-up events). Univariate logistic regression was performed to identify baseline variables associated with immediate outcome and follow-up outcomes.

Results

Over the four-month recruitment period 717 subjects were enrolled. There were 85 (11.9%) immediate events (10.1% were admitted, 2.2% were referred, none died). Forty-seven (7.8%) events occurred within 30 days after the visit (7.3% sought care from a health provider, 1.5% were admitted and 0.5% died). Variables associated with immediate events included living more than 30 minutes from the health center, age older than 5 years, having received an antimalarial prior to the visit, having seen a community health worker prior to the visit, elevated respiratory rate or temperature, and depressed weight-for-age z score or decreased oxygen saturation. These variables were not associated with follow-up events.

Conclusions

Sick-child visits at a rural health center in South Western Uganda were associated with rates of mortality and subsequent admission of less than 2% in the period following the sick child visits. Other types of health seeking behavior occurred in approximately 7% of subjects during this same period. Several variables were associated with immediate events but there were no reliable predictors of follow-up events, possibly due to low statistical power.     

Body Mass Index Is Associated with Physical Performance in Suburb-Dwelling Older Chinese: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Physical performance is reported to have various beneficial effects on human health, especially in older individuals. Although such effects are associated with body mass index (BMI), the relationship between BMI and physical performance has not been clarified.

Design

We conducted a cross-sectional study of 966 suburb-dwelling Tianjin individuals aged ≥ 60 years (average age 67.5±6.02, men 435, women 531). Mobility, balance, and muscle strength were assessed by walking speed, timed up-and-go test (TUGT), and grip strength, respectively. The subjects were categorized into three groups based on BMI (kg/m²) as follows: normal weight, 18.5 ≤ BMI ≤ 23.9; overweight, 24.0 ≤ BMI ≤ 27.9; and obese, BMI ≥ 28.0.

Result

After adjusting for all other variables, relative grip strength decreased when BMI increased in both men and women (P for trend <0.001 and <0.001, respectively). BMI may be negatively associated with TUGT performance in the women only. There was no apparent association between walking speed and BMI in either sex, but after adjusting for age, walking speed was faster when BMI increased in women (P for trend= 0.0162).

Conclusion

This study suggests that in older individuals, higher BMI is associated with poor muscle strength in both sexes.     

Predictors of Non-Adherence to Breast Cancer Screening among Hospitalized Women

Objective

Disparities in screening mammography use persists among low income women, even those who are insured, despite the proven mortality benefit. A recent study reported that more than a third of hospitalized women were non-adherent with breast cancer screening. The current study explores prevalence of socio-demographic and clinical variables associated with non-adherence to screening mammography recommendations among hospitalized women.

Patients and Methods

A cross sectional bedside survey was conducted to collect socio-demographic and clinical comorbidity data thought to effect breast cancer screening adherence of hospitalized women aged 50–75 years. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association between these factors and non-adherence to screening mammography.

Results

Of 250 enrolled women, 61% were of low income, and 42% reported non-adherence to screening guidelines. After adjustment for socio-demographic and clinical predictors, three variables were found to be independently associated with non-adherence to breast cancer screening: low income (OR = 3.81, 95%CI; 1.84–7.89), current or ex-smoker (OR = 2.29, 95%CI; 1.12–4.67), and history of stroke (OR = 2.83, 95%CI; 1.21–6.60). By contrast, hospitalized women with diabetes were more likely to be compliant with breast cancer screening (OR = 2.70, 95%CI 1.35–5.34).

Conclusion

Because hospitalization creates the scenario wherein patients are in close proximity to healthcare resources, at a time when they may be reflecting upon their health status, strategies could be employed to counsel, educate, and motivate these patients towards health maintenance. Capitalizing on this opportunity would involve offering screening during hospitalization for those who are overdue, particularly for those who are at higher risk of disease.     

Epidemiological Study of RRT-Treated ESRD in Nanjing - A Ten-Year Experience in Nearly Three Million Insurance Covered Population

Background

The growing burden of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) has been a great challenge to the health care system of China. However, the exact epidemiological data for ESRD in China remain unclear. We aimed to investigate the epidemiology of ESRD treated by renal replacement therapy (RRT) in Nanjing based on analysing ten-year data of Nanjing three million insurance covered population.

Methods

Using the electronic registry system of Urban Employee Basic Medical Insurance (UEBMI), we included all subjects insured by UEBMI in Nanjing from 2005 to 2014 and identified subjects who developed ESRD and started RRT in this cohort.

Results

The UEBMI population in Nanjing increased from 1,301,882 in 2005 to 2,921,065 in 2014, among which a total of 5,840 subjects developed ESRD and received RRT. Over the 10-year period, the adjusted incidence rates of RRT in the UEBMI cohort gradually decreased from 289.3pmp in 2005 to 218.8pmp in 2014. However, the adjusted prevalence rate increased steadily from 891.7pmp in 2005 to 1,228.6pmp in 2014. The adjusted annual mortality rate decreased from 138.4 per 1000 patient-years in 2005 to 97.8 per 1000 patient-years in 2014. The long-term survival rate fluctuated over the past decade, with the 1-year survival rate ranging from 85.1% to 91.7%, the 3-year survival rate from 69.9% to 78.3% and the 5-year survival rate from 58% to 65.4%.

Conclusion

Nanjing is facing an increasing burden of ESRD with its improvement of medical reform. The ten-year complete registry data on RRT in urban employees in Nanjing provided a unique opportunity to understand the real threat of ESRD confronting China during its process of health care transition.     

Tuberculosis Mortality and Living Conditions in Bern,Switzerland, 1856-1950

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is a poverty-related disease that is associated with poor living conditions. We studied TB mortality and living conditions in Bern between 1856 and 1950.

Methods

We analysed cause-specific mortality based on mortality registers certified by autopsies, and public health reports 1856 to 1950 from the city council of Bern.

Results

TB mortality was higher in the Black Quarter (550 per 100,000) and in the city centre (327 per 100,000), compared to the outskirts (209 per 100,000 in 1911–1915). TB mortality correlated positively with the number of persons per room (r = 0.69, p = 0.026), the percentage of rooms without sunlight (r = 0.72, p = 0.020), and negatively with the number of windows per apartment (r = -0.79, p = 0.007). TB mortality decreased 10-fold from 330 per 100,000 in 1856 to 33 per 100,000 in 1950, as housing conditions improved, indoor crowding decreased, and open-air schools, sanatoria, systematic tuberculin skin testing of school children and chest radiography screening were introduced.

Conclusions

Improved living conditions and public health measures may have contributed to the massive decline of the TB epidemic in the city of Bern even before effective antibiotic treatment became finally available in the 1950s.     

Prognostic Value of Obesity on Both Overall Mortality and Cardiovascular Disease in the General Population

Background

Obesity represents an important health problem and its association with cardiovascular risk factors is well-known. The aim of this work was to assess the correlation between obesity and mortality (both, all-cause mortality and the combined variable of all-cause mortality plus the appearance of a non-fatal first cardiovascular event) in a general population sample from the south-east of Spain.

Materials and Methods

This prospective cohort study used stratified and randomized two-stage sampling. Obesity [body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m²] as a predictive variable of mortality and cardiovascular events was assessed after controlling for age, sex, cardiovascular disease history, high blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, high-density lipoprotein/triglycerides ratio, total cholesterol and smoking with the Cox regression model.

Results

The mean follow-up time of the 1,248 participants was 10.6 years. The incidence of all-cause mortality during this period was 97 deaths for every 10,000 person/years (95% CI: 80–113) and the incidence of all-cause mortality+cardiovascular morbidity was 143 cases for every 10,000 person/years (95% CI: 124–163). A BMI ≥35 kg/m² yielded a hazard ratio for all-cause mortality of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.11–3.42) in comparison to non-obese subjects (BMI <30 kg/m²). For the combination of cardiovascular morbidity plus all-cause mortality, a BMI ≥35 kg/m² had a hazard ratio of 1.84 (95% CI: 1.15–2.93) compared to non-obese subjects.

Conclusions

A BMI ≥35 kg/m² is an important predictor of both overall mortality and of the combination of cardiovascular morbidity plus all-cause mortality.     

Body Mass Index,High-Sensitivity C-Reactive Protein and Mortality in Chinese with Coronary Artery Disease

Background

To investigate single and joint associations of body mass index (BMI) and serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) with death.

Methods

The study included 1871 coronary artery disease (CAD) patients aged 40–85 year-old recruited from 2008 to 2011. Cox regression models were used to estimate the association of BMI and hsCRP with mortality. The data was analyzed in 2014.

Results

During 3.1 years follow-up, 141 deaths were recorded, 110 died of cardiovascular disease (CVD). After adjustment of major CVD risk factors, there was a J-shaped association between BMI and all-cause and CVD mortality, and a positive association between hsCRP and mortality. The J-shaped association of BMI with mortality was present among patients who never smoked or with elevated hsCRP (≥3.0 mg/L). Compared with overweight (BMI 24–27.9 kg/m²) patients with normal hsCRP (<3.0 mg/L), obese patients (BMI≥28 kg/m²) with elevated hsCRP had a 3.41-fold risk of all-cause mortality (95% CI 1.49–7.80) and a 3.50-fold risk of CVD mortality (1.40–8.75), lean patients (BMI<24 kg/m²) with elevated hsCRP concentration had a 2.54-fold risk of all-cause mortality (1.36–4.74) and a 2.36-fold risk of CVD mortality (1.19–4.70).

Conclusions

The association pattern between baseline BMI and mortality changed among different baseline hsCRP concentrations, indicating that low-grade inflammation may be related to BMI and secondary prognosis of CAD.     

"Healthy Men" and High Mortality: Contributions from a Population-Based Study for the Gender Paradox Discussion

Background

Inequalities between men and women in morbidity and mortality show a contrast, which has been called gender paradox. Most studies evaluating this paradox were conducted in high-income countries and, until now, few investigations have been performed in Brazil. This study aims to estimate the magnitude of inequalities between adult men and women in several dimensions: demographic and socioeconomic, health behaviors, morbidity, use of health services and mortality.

Methods

The data were obtained from population-based household survey carried out in Campinas (Campinas Health Survey 2008/09) corresponding to 957 people, and data from the Mortality Information System (MIS) between 2009 and 2011. Prevalences and prevalence ratios were analyzed in order to verify the differences between men and women regarding socioeconomic and demographic variables, health behaviors, morbidities and consultations in the last two weeks. Mortality rates and the ratio between coefficients considering the underlying causes of death were calculated.

Results

Women had a greater disadvantage in socioeconomic indicators, chronic diseases diagnosed by a health professional and referred health problems as well as make more use of health services, while men presented higher frequency of most unhealthy behaviors and excessive mortality for all causes investigated.

Conclusions

The findings contribute to the discussion of gender paradox and demonstrate the need to employ health actions that consider the differences between men and women in the various health dimensions analyzed. The premature male mortality from preventable causes was outstanding, making clear the need for more effective prevention and health promotion directed to this segment of the population.     

Current Developments in Dementia Risk Prediction Modelling: An Updated Systematic Review

Background

Accurate identification of individuals at high risk of dementia influences clinical care, inclusion criteria for clinical trials and development of preventative strategies. Numerous models have been developed for predicting dementia. To evaluate these models we undertook a systematic review in 2010 and updated this in 2014 due to the increase in research published in this area. Here we include a critique of the variables selected for inclusion and an assessment of model prognostic performance.

Methods

Our previous systematic review was updated with a search from January 2009 to March 2014 in electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science). Articles examining risk of dementia in non-demented individuals and including measures of sensitivity, specificity or the area under the curve (AUC) or c-statistic were included.

Findings

In total, 1,234 articles were identified from the search; 21 articles met inclusion criteria. New developments in dementia risk prediction include the testing of non-APOE genes, use of non-traditional dementia risk factors, incorporation of diet, physical function and ethnicity, and model development in specific subgroups of the population including individuals with diabetes and those with different educational levels. Four models have been externally validated. Three studies considered time or cost implications of computing the model.

Interpretation

There is no one model that is recommended for dementia risk prediction in population-based settings. Further, it is unlikely that one model will fit all. Consideration of the optimal features of new models should focus on methodology (setting/sample, model development and testing in a replication cohort) and the acceptability and cost of attaining the risk variables included in the prediction score. Further work is required to validate existing models or develop new ones in different populations as well as determine the ethical implications of dementia risk prediction, before applying the particular models in population or clinical settings.     

Adverse Trends in Ischemic Heart Disease Mortality among Young New Yorkers,Particularly Young Black Women

Background

Ischemic heart disease (IHD) mortality has been on the decline in the United States for decades. However, declines in IHD mortality have been slower in certain groups, including young women and black individuals.

Hypothesis

Trends in IHD vary by age, sex, and race in New York City (NYC). Young female minorities are a vulnerable group that may warrant renewed efforts to reduce IHD.

Methods

IHD mortality trends were assessed in NYC 1980–2008. NYC Vital Statistics data were obtained for analysis. Age-specific IHD mortality rates and confidence bounds were estimated. Trends in IHD mortality were compared by age and race/ethnicity using linear regression of log-transformed mortality rates. Rates and trends in IHD mortality rates were compared between subgroups defined by age, sex and race/ethnicity.

Results

The decline in IHD mortality rates slowed in 1999 among individuals aged 35–54 years but not ≥55. IHD mortality rates were higher among young men than women age 35–54, but annual declines in IHD mortality were slower for women. Black women age 35–54 had higher IHD mortality rates and slower declines in IHD mortality than women of other race/ethnicity groups. IHD mortality trends were similar in black and white men age 35–54.

Conclusions

The decline in IHD mortality rates has slowed in recent years among younger, but not older, individuals in NYC. There was an association between sex and race/ethnicity on IHD mortality rates and trends. Young black women may benefit from targeted medical and public health interventions to reduce IHD mortality.     

Development of Indicators for Patient Care and Monitoring Standards for Secondary Health Care Services of Mumbai

Background

The Qualitative aspect of health care delivery is one of the major factors in reducing morbidity and mortality in a health care setup. The expanding suburban secondary health care delivery facilities of the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai are an important part of the healthcare backbone of Mumbai and therefore the quality of care delivered here needed standardization.

Material and Methods

The project was completed over a period of one year from Jan to Dec, 2013 and implemented in three phases. The framework with components and sub-components were developed and formats for data collection were standardized. The benchmarks were based on past performance in the same hospital and probability was used for development of normal range. An Excel spreadsheet was developed to facilitate data analysis.

Results

The indicators comprise of 3 components - Statutory Requirements, Patient care & Cure and Administrative efficiency. The measurements made, pointed to the broad areas needing attention.

Conclusion

The Indicators for patient care and monitoring standards can be used as a self assessment tool for health care setups for standardization and improvement of delivery of health care services.     

Body Mass Index,Mortality, and Gender Difference in Advanced Chronic Kidney Disease

Background and Aim

A higher body mass index (BMI) appears to be reversely associated with mortality in dialysis patients. Moreover, although women have better survival in chronic kidney disease (CKD), this survival advantage is cancelled in dialysis. The association between BMI and mortality and the gender difference remain controversial in advanced CKD.

Methods

This study enrolled 3,320 patients (1,938 men and 1,382 women) from southern Taiwan who had CKD stages 3–5 with a BMI of 15.0–35.0 kg/m².

Results

During a median 2.9-year follow-up, there were 328 (16.9%) all-cause mortality and 319 (16.5%) cardiovascular (CV) events and death in male patients, 213 (15.4%) all-cause mortality and 224 (16.2%) CV events and death in female patients. Compared with the reference BMI of 27.6–30.0 kg/m² in an adjusted Cox model, lower-BMI groups in men, BMI 15.0–20.0 kg/m² and 20.1–22.5 kg/m², were associated with higher risks of all-cause mortality: hazard ratios (HRs) 3.19 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.97–5.18) and 2.01 (95% CI, 1.29–3.14), respectively. Higher-BMI group in men, BMI 30.1–35.0 kg/m², was associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality: HR 1.72 (95% CI, 1.02–2.96). Likewise, lower- and higher-BMI groups in men were associated with a higher risk of CV events and death. In women, these associations between BMI and poor outcomes were not observed.

Conclusions

In advanced CKD, there was a reverse J-shaped association between BMI and all-cause mortality, and a U-shaped association between BMI and CV outcomes in men. Neutral associations between BMI and poor outcomes were detected in women. Gender could modify the effect of BMI on mortality in patients with CKD.     

Relationship between Body Mass Index and Mortality in HIV-Infected HAART Users in the Women's Interagency HIV Study

Background

Early HIV studies suggested protective associations of overweight against mortality, yet data are lacking for the era of potent highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We evaluated associations of pre-HAART initiation body mass index (BMI) with mortality among HAART-using women.

Methods

Prospective study of time to death after HAART initiation among continuous HAART users in the Women’s Interagency HIV Study. Unadjusted Kaplan–Meier and adjusted proportional hazards survival models assessed time to AIDS and non-AIDS death by last measured pre-HAART BMI.

Results

Of 1428 continuous HAART users 39 (2.7%) were underweight, 521 (36.5%) normal weight, 441 (30.9%) overweight, and 427 (29.9%) obese at time of HAART initiation. A total of 322 deaths occurred during median follow-up of 10.4 years (IQR 5.9–14.6). Censoring at non-AIDS death, the highest rate of AIDS death was observed among underweight women (p = 0.0003 for all 4 categories). In multivariate models, women underweight prior to HAART died from AIDS more than twice as rapidly vs. normal weight women (aHR 2.04, 95% CI 1.03, 4.04); but being overweight or obese (vs. normal weight) was not independently associated with AIDS death. Cumulative incidence of non-AIDS death was similar across all pre-HAART BMI categories.

Conclusions

Among continuous HAART-using women, being overweight prior to initiation was not associated with lower risk of AIDS or non-AIDS death. Being underweight prior to HAART was associated with over double the rate of AIDS death in adjusted analyses. Although overweight and obesity may be associated with many adverse health conditions, neither was predictive of mortality among the HAART-using women.     

Body Mass Index Is Associated with Inflammatory Bowel Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Prior work suggested that patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) have lower body mass index (BMI) than controls and patients with lower BMI have more serious complications.

Goal

The study was aimed to find relationship between BMI in patients with and without IBD, investigate effects of medicine therapy and disease stages on patients’ BMI.

Methods

Potentially eligible studies were identified through searching PubMed, Cochrane and Embase databases. Outcome measurements of mean BMI and the number of patients from each study were pooled by a random-effect model. Publication bias test, sensitivity analysis and subgroup analysis were conducted.

Results

A total of 24 studies containing 1442 patients and 2059 controls were included. Main results were as follows: (1) BMI in Crohn’s disease (CD) patients was lower than that in health controls (-1.88, 95% CI -2.77 to -1.00, P< 0.001); (2) Medical therapy significantly improved BMI of CD patients (with therapy: -1.58, -3.33 to 0.16; without: -2.09, 95% CI -3.21 to -0.98) while on the contrary not significantly improving BMI of UC patients (with therapy: -0.24, 95% CI -3.68 to 3.20; without: -1.34, 95% CI -2.87 to 0.20, P = 0.57); (3) Both CD and UC patients in active phase showed significantly greater BMI difference compared with controls than those in remission (CD patients: remission: -2.25, 95% CI -3.38 to -1.11; active phase: -4.25, 95% CI -5.58 to -2.92, P = 0.03; UC patients: remission: 0.4, 95% CI -2.05 to 2.84; active phase: -5.38, -6.78 to -3.97, P = 0.001).

Conclusions

BMI is lower in CD patients; medical therapy couldn’t improve BMI of IBD patients; the state of disease affects BMI of CD patients and UC patients.     

A Comparison between BMI,Waist Circumference,and Waist-To-Height Ratio for Identifying Cardio-Metabolic Risk in Children and Adolescents

Background

There is controversial evidence on the associations between anthropometric measures with clustering of cardiovascular disease risk factors in pediatric ages. We aimed to examine the associations between body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) with clustered cardiometabolic risk factors and to determine whether these anthropometric variables can be used to discriminate individuals with increased cardiometabolic risk (increased clustered triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, and HOMA-IR).

Methods

The study sample of 4255 (2191 girls and 2064 boys) participants (8–17 years) was derived from pooled cross-sectional data comprising five studies. Outcomes included a continuous cardiometabolic risk factor z-score [corresponding to the sum of z-scores for triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, systolic and diastolic blood pressure (mean arterial pressure), and HOMA-IR] and children with ≥1.0 SD in this score were defined as being at risk for clustering cardiometabolic risk factors.. Exposure variables were BMI, WC, WHtR. Statistics included mixed-effect regression and ROC analysis.

Results

All anthropometric variables were associated with clustered risk and the magnitudes of associations were similar for BMI, WC, and WHtR. Models including anthropometric variables were similar in discriminating children and adolescents at increased risk with areas under the ROC curve between 0.70 and 0.74. The sensitivity (boys: 80.5–86.4%; girls: 76.6–82.3%) was markedly higher than specificity (boys: 51.85–59.4%; girls: 60.8%).

Conclusions

The magnitude of associations for BMI, WC, and WHtR are similar in relation to clustered cardiometabolic risk factors, and perform better at higher levels of BMI. However, the precision of these anthropometric variables to classify increased risk is low.