干旱对中亚草地总初级生产力时滞和累积效应的影响评估

随着全球气候变化加剧,干旱对草原生态系统碳循环的影响更加复杂。作为全球陆地生态系统碳通量的最大组成部分,总初级生产力(GPP)对整个陆地碳循环具有深远影响,因此,探讨干旱对草地GPP的影响,对于理解区域碳循环机制,维护草地生态系统稳定发展具有重要意义。以中亚为研究区,基于NIRv-GPP和SPEI base v.2.7数据集,利用Theil-Sen Median斜率估计结合Mann-Kendall显著性检验、M-K突变检验和相关分析方法,探究1982-2018年干旱对草地GPP的时滞和累积效应。结果表明:(1)中亚地区草地GPP年平均值随时间变化整体上呈下降趋势,标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)年平均值呈降低趋势;(2)干旱对中亚绝大多数草地(95.6%)产生了时滞效应,滞后时间尺度集中在2-3个月;随着干旱状况的加重,滞后时间变长,滞后效应对草地GPP影响减弱;(3)中亚绝大多数草地(95.8%)对干旱存在累积响应,累积时间尺度以4、5、10月为主;随着干旱状况的加重,累积时间变短,累积效应对草地GPP影响增强;(4)通过对比研究时滞效应和累积效应发现:中亚超过四分之三(76.84%)的草地区域,干旱对草地GPP的时滞效应大于累积效应。研究结果可为理解气候变化背景下中亚生态环境动态变化特征及区域碳循环机制提供参考。     

Climatic determinism in phytogeographic regionalization: A test from the Irano-Turanian region,SW and Central Asia

This study investigates the role of climate in determining phytogeographic regions, focusing particularly on the Irano-Turanian floristic region in SW and Central Asia. A set of simple climatic variables and bioclimatic indices were used to prepare climate-space scatter plots and climate diagrams. The climate data were also subjected to multivariate analyses (PCA and Regression tree) in order to develop a bioclimatic characterization of the Irano-Turanian region in comparison with the adjacent Mediterranean, Saharo-Sindian, Euro-Siberian, and Central-Asiatic regions. Phytogeographic regions of SW and Central Asia display distinct bioclimatic spaces with small overlaps. The Irano-Turanian region is differentiated from surrounding regions by continentality, winter temperature, and precipitation seasonality. Continentality is the most important bioclimatic factor in differentiating it from the Mediterranean and Saharo-Sindian regions and is responsible for floristic differences among sub-regions of the Irano-Turanian region. In our case study, the Irano-Turanian region is a nearly independent bioclimatic unit, distinct from its surrounding regions. Hence, it is suggested that the term “Irano-Turanian bioclimate” be used to describe the climate of most of the continental Middle East and Central Asia. Among different sub-regions, the west-central part of this floristic region (“IT2 sub-region”) is a major center of speciation and endemism. Our case study demonstrates that climate is a primary determinant of phytogeographic regionalization. Although modern climate and topography are strong control parameters on the floristic composition and geographical delimitation of the Irano-Turanian region, the complex paleogeographic and paleoclimatic history of SW Asia has also influenced the Tertiary and Quaternary evolution of the Irano-Turanian flora, with additional impacts by the long-lasting historic and present land-use in this region. Many Irano-Turanian montane species are threatened by global warming, and particular conservation measures are needed to protect the Irano-Turanian flora in all sub-regions.     

Carbon stock and its responses to climate change in Central Asia

Central Asia has a land area of 5.6 × 10⁶ km² and contains 80–90% of the world's temperate deserts. Yet it is one of the least characterized areas in the estimation of the global carbon (C) stock/balance. This study assessed the sizes and spatiotemporal patterns of C pools in Central Asia using both inventory (based on 353 biomass and 284 soil samples) and process‐based modeling approaches. The results showed that the C stock in Central Asia was 31.34–34.16 Pg in the top 1‐m soil with another 10.42–11.43 Pg stored in deep soil (1–3 m) of the temperate deserts. They amounted to 18–24% of the global C stock in deserts and dry shrublands. The C stock was comparable to that of the neighboring regions in Eurasia or major drylands around the world (e.g. Australia). However, 90% of Central Asia C pool was stored in soil, and the fraction was much higher than in other regions. Compared to hot deserts of the world, the temperate deserts in Central Asia had relatively high soil organic carbon density. The C stock in Central Asia is under threat from dramatic climate change. During a decadal drought between 1998 and 2008, which was possibly related to protracted La Niña episodes, the dryland lost approximately 0.46 Pg C from 1979 to 2011. The largest C losses were found in northern Kazakhstan, where annual precipitation declined at a rate of 90 mm decade^?1. The regional C dynamics were mainly determined by changes in the vegetation C pool, and the SOC pool was stable due to the balance between reduced plant‐derived C influx and inhibited respiration.     

Les premiers villages agricoles de l’est du plateau Iranien à la vallée de l’Indus : état de la question

The birth of agriculture east of the Fertile Crescent, between the Iranian plateau, Central Asia and South Asia, is poorly known. This area is vast and the archaeological data relating to this period, the Neolithic, is extremely limited. Most researchers agree that plants and animals’ domestication was introduced in this area from south-west Asia, similarly to what happened in Europe. In this scenario, agriculture emerged in the Fertile Crescent, between the Levant, Anatolia and the Zagros, 12.000 to 11.000 years ago, and then spread to other regions further east, across the Iranian plateau to Central Asia and the north-western part of the Indian subcontinent, beginning between the 8th and 7th millennia BCE. This article summarizes the main available data relating to this topic with a focus on the Indo-Iranian Borderlands, between southeastern Iran and Pakistan. Currently available paleoclimatic, paleogenetic and archaeological records are presented. A synthesis and discussion is then provided in the conclusion as well as reconstructions based on these records. Issues or challenges relating to the research on the earliest farming villages are mentioned while directions for future research are evoked.     

Geographic disparities and moral hazards in the predicted impacts of climate change on human populations

Aim It has been qualitatively understood for a long time that climate change will have widely varying effects on human well‐being in different regions of the world. The spatial complexities underlying our relationship to climate and the geographical disparities in human demographic change have, however, precluded the development of global indices of the predicted regional impacts of climate change on humans. Humans will be most negatively affected by climate change in regions where populations are strongly dependent on climate and favourable climatic conditions decline. Here we use the relationship between the distribution of human population density and climate as a basis to develop the first global index of predicted impacts of climate change on human populations. Location Global. Methods We use spatially explicit models of the present relationship between human population density and climate along with forecasted climate change to predict climate vulnerabilities over the coming decades. We then globally represent regional disparities in human population dynamics estimated with our ecological niche model and with a demographic forecast and contrast these disparities with CO₂ emissions data to quantitatively evaluate the notion of moral hazard in climate change policies. Results Strongly negative impacts of climate change are predicted in Central America, central South America, the Arabian Peninsula, Southeast Asia and much of Africa. Importantly, the regions of greatest vulnerability are generally distant from the high‐latitude regions where the magnitude of climate change will be greatest. Furthermore, populations contributing the most to greenhouse gas emissions on a per capita basis are unlikely to experience the worst impacts of climate change, satisfying the conditions for a moral hazard in climate change policies. Main conclusions Regionalized analysis of relationships between distribution of human population density and climate provides a novel framework for developing global indices of human vulnerability to climate change. The predicted consequences of climate change on human populations are correlated with the factors causing climate change at the regional level, providing quantitative support for many qualitative statements found in international climate change assessments.     

A global gap analysis of infectious agents in wild primates

A number of infectious diseases have emerged as threats to humans and wildlife. Despite the growing importance of georeferenced data for mitigating disease risk, information on parasite threat is patchily distributed at a global scale. In this paper, we explore the utility of gap analysis techniques to investigate the global geographical distribution of parasite sampling in non-human primates. Specifically, we identify geographical areas that are undersampled for parasites in relation to primate geographical distributions, primate taxonomic sampling, primate threat status, and parasite taxonomy. Our results reveal that East Asia (particularly China), South-East Asia, and the South American Amazon are the most deficient in sampling effort with respect to all criteria. We also identify sampling gaps based on several criteria in West and Central Africa. Future research aimed at filling these gaps is needed for both human health and primate conservation purposes.     

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Calophaca (Fabaceae) Reveals Multiple Dispersals in Central Asian Mountains

Background

The Central Asian flora plays a significant role in Eurasia and the Northern Hemisphere. Calophaca, a member of this flora, includes eight currently recognized species, and is centered in Central Asia, with some taxa extending into adjacent areas. A phylogenetic analysis of the genus utilizing nuclear ribosomal ITS and plastid trnS-trnG and rbcL sequences was carried out in order to confirm its taxonomic status and reconstruct its evolutionary history.

Methodology/Principal Finding

We employed BEAST Bayesian inference for dating, and S-DIVA and BBM for ancestral area reconstruction, to study its spatiotemporal evolution. Our results show that Calophacais monophyletic and nested within Caragana. The divergence time of Calophaca is estimated at ca. 8.0 Ma, most likely driven by global cooling and aridification, influenced by rapid uplift of the Qinghai Tibet Plateau margins.

Conclusions/Significance

According to ancestral area reconstructions, the genus most likely originated in the Pamir Mountains, a global biodiversity hotspot and hypothesized Tertiary refugium of many Central Asian plant lineages. Dispersals from this location are inferred to the western Tianshan Mountains, then northward to the Tarbagatai Range, eastward to East Asia, and westward to the Caucasus, Russia, and Europe. The spatiotemporal evolution of Calophaca provides a case contributing to an understanding of the flora and biodiversity of the Central Asian mountains and adjacent regions.     

Tree-ring patterns and climate response of Mediterranean fir populations in Central Greece

Central Greece is the distribution common area of the endemic fir species Abies cephalonica and Abies borisii-regis. Forests fires and fir decline are some of the problems both species encountered during the past decades, with these problems being exacerbated lately by climate change. The present research investigates tree-ring patterns and climate responses of three fir populations along a latitudinal gradient in Central Greece. All three populations were homogeneous in their dendrometric, silvicultural and site characteristics but were phenotypically different. The analysis of tree-ring widths site chronologies revealed that 59% of their variability interprets common tree-ring patterns whereas another 25% interprets their differences as they appear from a south to north direction. This variability in tree-ring widths is proportional to the variability observed for precipitation, temperature and drought from a south to north direction in this region. The tree-ring to climate relationships revealed that the main climatic factor affecting fir tree-ring width is late spring and summer precipitation to which is positively correlated. Also, tree-ring widths were positively affected by the temperatures of the October and April before the growing season. However, June drought adversely affected tree-ring widths of the northern site while it positively affected them at the beginning of the spring season, especially for the southern site and in September for the northern sites. All dendrochronological statistics, tree-ring patterns and climate-growth relationships show a south to north trend following the climatic and phenotypic (species) variation observed to the same direction for fir populations in Central Greece.     

植物物候研究进展

植物物候直接反映了气候变化的影响,是植被动态模拟的关键.在遥感和模型技术的推动下,植物物候与全球变化关系的研究日益受到人们的关注.文中从植物物候与环境因子的相互关系、植物物候对全球变化的响应以及植物物候的遥感监测方面,综合论述了植物物候的研究进展,找出植被物候研究的不足,进而提出未来植被物候的研究方向.     

1982-2012年中亚地区植被时空变化特征及其与气候变化的相关分析

干旱区植被生态系统对气候变化极为敏感,并且干旱区的植被变化研究对全球碳循环具有重要意义。然而近几十年来,中亚干旱区植被对气候变化的响应机制尚不甚明朗。利用归一化植被指数NDVI数据集和MERRA（Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications）气象数据,采用经验正交函数（EOF,Empirical Orthogonal Function）和最小二乘法等方法系统分析了31a（1982-2012年）来中亚地区NDVI在不同时间尺度的时空变化特征。进一步分析和研究NDVI与气温和降水的相关性,结果表明：1982-2012年,中亚地区年NDVI总体呈现缓慢增长趋势,而1994年以后年NDVI呈现明显下降趋势,尤其在哈萨克斯坦北部草原地区下降趋势尤为突出。这可能是由于过去30年间,中亚地区降水累计量的持续减少造成的。NDVI的季节变化表明春季NDVI增长最为明显,冬季则显著下降。与平原区相比,中亚山区的NDVI值增长幅度最大,并且山区年NDVI与季节NDVI呈现显著增加趋势（P < 0.05）。中亚地区年NDVI与年降水量正相关,而年NDVI与气温变化存在弱负相关。年NDVI和气温的正相关中心在中亚南部地区,负相关中心则出现在哈萨克斯坦的西部和北部地区;NDVI和降水的相关性中心刚好与气温相反。此外,在近30年间的每年6月至9月,中亚地区NDVI与气温存在近一个月的时间延迟现象。本研究为中亚干旱区生态系统变化和中亚地区碳循环的估算提供科学依据。     

Preserving a Comprehensive Vegetation Knowledge Base – An Evaluation of Four Historical Soviet Vegetation Maps of the Western Pamirs (Tajikistan)

We edited, redrew, and evaluated four unpublished historical vegetation maps of the Western Pamirs (Tajikistan) by the Soviet geobotanist Okmir E. Agakhanjanz. These maps cover an area of 5,188 km² and date from 1958 to 1960. The purpose of this article is to make the historic vegetation data available to the scientific community and thus preserve a hitherto non available and up to now neglected or forgotten data source with great potential for studies on vegetation and ecosystem response to global change. The original hand-drawn maps were scanned, georeferenced, and digitized and the corresponding land cover class was assigned to each polygon. The partly differing legends were harmonized and plant names updated. Furthermore, a digital elevation model and generalized additive models were used to calculate response curves of the land cover classes and to explore vegetation-topography relationships quantitatively. In total, 2,216 polygons belonging to 13 major land cover classes were included that are characterized by 252 different plant species. As such, the presented maps provide excellent comparison data for studies on vegetation and ecosystem change in an area that is deemed to be an important water tower in Central Asia.     

The elevation history of the Tibetan Plateau and its implications for the Asian monsoon

The determination of the evolving palaeoaltitude of the Tibetan Plateau since the India-Eurasia collision underpins our understanding of how orography in central Asia affects the intensity of the monsoon and hence global climate change. Palaeoaltitudes, however, cannot be measured directly and need to be inferred from proxy observations that are usually model-dependent. Differing tectonic models for the behaviour of the lithosphere during continental collision have contrasting implications for the elevation of the plateau. However, two techniques recently employed for determining palaeo-elevation are independent of tectonic models, the first involving the variation with altitude of oxygen isotopes in precipitation and the second involving the change of leaf morphology with moist static energy of the atmosphere.Elevation studies have focused on southern Tibet, largely due to the relative ease of access to the region. There is a remarkable unanimity amongst the diverse techniques applied that the altitude of the southern plateau has not significantly changed since at least the mid Miocene (ca. 15 Ma) arguing for an onset of the monsoon system during or before the early Miocene. A range of tectonic studies suggest that the northern and eastern parts of the plateau are younger geomorphological features, but there are few quantitative constraints of the timing of elevation from these regions of Tibet. Since both the elevation and the surface area of the plateau impact on atmospheric circulation, palaeoaltitude studies need to be extended to chart the increasing areas of elevated land surface through time.     

Progress and Prospects of Developing Climate Resilient Wheat in South Asia Using Modern Pre-Breeding Methods

Developing climate-resilient wheat is a priority for South Asia since the effect of climate change will be pronounced on the major crops that are staple to the region. South Asia must produce >400 million metric tons (MMT) of wheat by 2050 to meet the demand. However, the current average yield <3 t/ha is not sufficient to meet the requirement. In this review, we are addressing how pre-breeding methods in wheat can address the gap in grain yield as well as reduce the bottleneck of genetic diversity. Physiological pre-breeding which incorporates screening of diverse germplasm from gene banks for physiological and agronomic traits, the strategic crossing of complementary traits, high throughput phenotyping, molecular markers-based generation advancement, genomic prediction, and validation of high-value heat and drought tolerant lines to South Asia can help to alleviate the drastic effect of climate change on wheat production. There are several gene banks, if utilized well, can play a major role in breeding for climate-resilient wheat. CIMMYT’s wheat physiological pre-breeding has delivered several hundred lines via the Stress Adapted Trait Yield Nursery (SATYN) to the NARS in many South Asian countries; India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, and Iran. Some of these improved germplasms have resulted in varieties for farmer''s field. We conclude the review by pointing out the importance of collaborative interdisciplinary translational research to alleviate the effects of climate change on wheat production in South Asia.     

Is Chytridiomycosis an Emerging Infectious Disease in Asia?

The disease chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has caused dramatic amphibian population declines and extinctions in Australia, Central and North America, and Europe. Bd is associated with >200 species extinctions of amphibians, but not all species that become infected are susceptible to the disease. Specifically, Bd has rapidly emerged in some areas of the world, such as in Australia, USA, and throughout Central and South America, causing population and species collapse. The mechanism behind the rapid global emergence of the disease is poorly understood, in part due to an incomplete picture of the global distribution of Bd. At present, there is a considerable amount of geographic bias in survey effort for Bd, with Asia being the most neglected continent. To date, Bd surveys have been published for few Asian countries, and infected amphibians have been reported only from Indonesia, South Korea, China and Japan. Thus far, there have been no substantiated reports of enigmatic or suspected disease-caused population declines of the kind that has been attributed to Bd in other areas. In order to gain a more detailed picture of the distribution of Bd in Asia, we undertook a widespread, opportunistic survey of over 3,000 amphibians for Bd throughout Asia and adjoining Papua New Guinea. Survey sites spanned 15 countries, approximately 36° latitude, 111° longitude, and over 2000 m in elevation. Bd prevalence was very low throughout our survey area (2.35% overall) and infected animals were not clumped as would be expected in epizootic events. This suggests that Bd is either newly emerging in Asia, endemic at low prevalence, or that some other ecological factor is preventing Bd from fully invading Asian amphibians. The current observed pattern in Asia differs from that in many other parts of the world.     

The future of South East Asian rainforests in a changing landscape and climate

With a focus on the Danum Valley area of Sabah, Malaysian Borneo, this special issue has as its theme the future of tropical rainforests in a changing landscape and climate. The global environmental context to the issue is briefly given before the contents and rationale of the issue are summarized. Most of the papers are based on research carried out as part of the Royal Society South East Asia Rainforest Research Programme. The issue is divided into five sections: (i) the historical land-use and land management context; (ii) implications of land-use change for atmospheric chemistry and climate change; (iii) impacts of logging, forest fragmentation (particularly within an oil palm plantation landscape) and forest restoration on ecosystems and their functioning; (iv) the response and resilience of rainforest systems to climatic and land-use change; and (v) the scientific messages and policy implications arising from the research findings presented in the issue.     

An overview of cyanobacterial bloom occurrences and research in Africa over the last decade

Cyanobacterial blooms are a current cause for concern globally, with vital water sources experiencing frequent and increasingly toxic blooms in the past decade. These increases are resultant of both anthropogenic and natural factors, with climate change being the central concern. Of the more affected parts of the world, Africa has been considered particularly vulnerable due to its historical predisposition and lag in social economic development. This review collectively assesses the available information on cyanobacterial blooms in Africa as well as any visible trends associated with reported occurrences over the last decade. Of the 54 countries in Africa, only 21 have notable research information in the area of cyanobacterial blooms within the last decade, although there is substantial reason to attribute these blooms as some of the major water quality threats in Africa collectively. The collected information suggests that civil wars, disease outbreaks and inadequate infrastructure are at the core of Africa’s delayed advancement. This is even more so in the area of cyanobacteria related research, with 11 out of 21 countries having recorded toxicity and physicochemical parameters related to cyanobacterial blooms. Compared to the rest of the continent, peripheral countries are at the forefront of research related to cyanobacteria, with countries such as Angola having sufficient rainfall, but poor water quality with limited information on bloom occurrences. An assessment of the reported blooms found nitrogen concentrations to be higher in the water column of more toxic blooms, validating recent global studies and indicating that phosphorous is not the only factor to be monitored in bloom mitigation. Blooms occurred at low TN: TP ratios and at temperatures above 12 °C. Nitrogen was linked to toxicity and temperature also had a positive effect on bloom occurrence and toxicity. Microcystis was the most ubiquitous of the cyanobacterial strains reported in Africa and the one most frequently toxic. Cylindrospermopsis was reported more in the dry, north and western parts of the continent countries as opposed to the rest of the continent, whilst Anabaena was more frequent on the south eastern regions. In light of the entire continent, the inadequacy in reported blooms and advances in this area of research require critical intervention and action.     

Land use change in Asia and the ecological consequences

Viewed within a historical context, Asia has experienced dramatic land transformations, and currently more than 50% of Asian land area is under agriculture. The consequences of this transformation are manifold. Southeast Asia has the highest deforestation rate of any major tropical region. Many of the world’s large rivers and lakes in Asia have been heavily degraded. About 11 of 19 world megacities with more than 10 million inhabitants are in Asia. These land use activities have resulted in substantial negative ecological consequences, including increased anthropogenic CO₂ emissions, deteriorated air and water quality, alteration of regional climate, an increase of disease and a loss of biodiversity. Although land use occurs at the local level, it has the potential to cause ecological impact across local, regional and global scales. Reducing the negative environmental impacts of land use change while maintaining economic viability and social acceptability is an major challenge for most developing countries in Asia.     

Surrogate species protection in Bolivia under climate and land cover change scenarios

The Amazon rainforest covers more than 60% of Bolivia’s lowlands, providing habitat for many endemic and threatened species. Bolivia has the highest rates of deforestation of the Amazon biome, which degrades and fragments species habitat. Anthropogenic habitat changes could be exacerbated by climate change, and therefore, developing relevant strategies for biodiversity protection under global change scenarios is a necessary step in conservation planning.In this research we used multi-species umbrella concept to evaluate the degree of habitat impacts due to climate and land cover change in Bolivia. We used species distribution modeling to map three focal species (Jaguar, Lowland Tapir and Lesser Anteater) and assessed current protected area network effectiveness under future climate and land cover change scenarios for 2050.The studied focal species will lose between 70% and 83% of their ranges under future climate and land-cover change scenarios, decreasing the level of protection to 10% of their original ranges. Existing protected area network should be reconsidered to maintain current and future biodiversity habitats.     

African origin and global distribution patterns: Evidence inferred from phylogenetic and biogeographical analyses of ectomycorrhizal fungal genus Strobilomyces

Aim

The ectomycorrhizal genus Strobilomyces is widely distributed throughout many parts of the world, but its origin, divergence and distribution patterns remain largely unresolved. In this study, we aim to explore the species diversity, distribution and evolutionary patterns of Strobilomyces on a global scale by establishing a general phylogenetic framework with extensive sampling.

Location

Africa, Australasia, East Asia, Europe, North America, Central America and Southeast Asia.

Methods

The genealogical concordance phylogenetic species recognition method was used to delimit phylogenetic species. Divergence times were estimated using a Bayesian uncorrelated lognormal relaxed molecular clock. The ancestral area and host of Strobilomyces were inferred via the programs rasp and mesquite . The change of diversification rate over time was estimated using Ape, Laser and Bammtools software packages.

Results

We recognize a novel African clade and 49 phylogenetic species with morphological evidence, including 18 new phylogenetic species and 23 previously described ones. Strobilomyces probably originated in Africa, in association with Detarioideae/Phyllanthaceae/Monotoideae during the early Eocene. The dispersal to Southeast Asia can be explained by Wolfe's “Boreotropical migration” hypothesis. East Asia, Australasia, Europe and North/Central America are primarily the recipients of immigrant taxa during the Oligocene or later. A rapid radiation implied by one diversification shift was inferred within Strobilomyces during the Miocene.

Main conclusions

An unexpected phylogenetic species diversity within Strobilomyces was uncovered. The highest diversity, resulting probably from a rapid radiation, was found in East Asia. Dispersal played an important role in the current distribution pattern of Strobilomyces. The Palaeotropical disjunction is explained by species dispersal from Africa to Southeast Asia through boreotropical forests during the early Eocene. Species from the Northern Hemisphere and Australasia are largely derived from immigrant ancestors from Southeast Asia.     

A global overview of the conservation status of tropical dry forests

Aim To analyse the conservation status of tropical dry forests at the global scale, by combining a newly developed global distribution map with spatial data describing different threats, and to identify the relative exposure of different forest areas to such threats. Location Global assessment. Methods We present a new global distribution map of tropical dry forest derived from the recently developed MODIS Vegetation Continuous Fields (VCF) product, which depicts percentage tree cover at a resolution of 500 m, combined with previously defined maps of biomes. This distribution map was overlaid with spatial data to estimate the exposure of tropical dry forests to a number of different threats: climate change, habitat fragmentation, fire, human population density and conversion to cropland. The extent of tropical dry forest currently protected was estimated by overlaying the forest map with a global data set of the distribution of protected areas. Results It is estimated that 1,048,700 km² of tropical dry forest remains, distributed throughout the three tropical regions. More than half of the forest area (54.2%) is located within South America, the remaining area being almost equally divided between North and Central America, Africa and Eurasia, with a relatively small proportion (3.8%) occurring within Australasia and Southeast Asia. Overall, c. 97% of the remaining area of tropical dry forest is at risk from one or more of the threats considered, with highest percentages recorded for Eurasia. The relative exposure to different threats differed between regions: while climate change is relatively significant in the Americas, habitat fragmentation and fire affect a higher proportion of African forests, whereas agricultural conversion and human population density are most influential in Eurasia. Evidence suggests that c. 300,000 km² of tropical dry forest now coincide with some form of protected area, with 71.8% of this total being located within South America. Main conclusions Virtually all of the tropical dry forests that remain are currently exposed to a variety of different threats, largely resulting from human activity. Taking their high biodiversity value into consideration, this indicates that tropical dry forests should be accorded high conservation priority. The results presented here could be used to identify which forest areas should be accorded highest priority for conservation action. In particular, the expansion of the global protected area network, particularly in Mesoamerica, should be given urgent consideration.