Cancer Risk in Children and Adolescents with Birth Defects: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Objective

Birth defects are an increasing health priority worldwide, and the subject of a major 2010 World Health Assembly Resolution. Excess cancer risk may be an added burden in this vulnerable group of children, but studies to date have provided inconsistent findings. This study assessed the risk for cancer in children and young adolescents with major birth defects.

Methods and Findings

This retrospective, statewide, population-based, cohort study was conducted in three US states (Utah, Arizona, Iowa). A cohort of 44,151 children and young adolescents (0 through 14 years of age) with selected major, non-chromosomal birth defects or chromosomal anomalies was compared to a reference cohort of 147,940 children without birth defects randomly sampled from each state’s births and frequency matched by year of birth. The primary outcome was rate of cancer prior to age 15 years, by type of cancer and type of birth defect. The incidence of cancer was increased 2.9-fold (95% CI, 2.3 to 3.7) in children with birth defects (123 cases of cancer) compared to the reference cohort; the incidence rates were 33.8 and 11.7 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. However, the excess risk varied markedly by type of birth defect. Increased risks were seen in children with microcephaly, cleft palate, and selected eye, cardiac, and renal defects. Cancer risk was not increased with many common birth defects, including hypospadias, cleft lip with or without cleft palate, or hydrocephalus.

Conclusion

Children with some structural, non-chromosomal birth defects, but not others, have a moderately increased risk for childhood cancer. Information on such selective risk can promote more effective clinical evaluation, counseling, and research.     

Risks of Breast and Endometrial Cancer in Women with Diabetes: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Objective

We investigated the overall and age-specific risks of developing breast and endometrial cancer among women with diabetes in a population-based cohort study.

Methods

Women with diabetes (n = 319310) and age-matched controls (n = 319308), selected from ambulatory care claims and beneficiary registry in 2000, respectively were linked to the in-patient claims (2000–2008) to identify admissions due to breast (ICD-9-CM: 174) and endometrial (ICD-9-CM: 182) cancer. The person-year approach with Poisson assumption was used to estimate the incidence density rate. The age-specific hazard ratios (HRs) of above malignancies in relation to diabetes with multivariate Cox proportional hazard regression.

Results

The overall incidence density rate of breast and endometrial cancer was estimated at 1.21 and 0.21 per 10,000 patient-years, respectively, for diabetes. The corresponding figures for controls were lower at 1.00 and 0.14 per 10,000 patient-years. Compared with the controls, the covariate adjusted HR for breast and endometrial cancer was 1.42 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.34–1.50) and 1.71 (95% CI 1.48–1.97), respectively in women with diabetes. Elderly (> = 65 years) diabetes had the highest HR (1.61) of breast cancer, while the highest HR (1.85) of endometrial cancer was observed in diabetes aged < = 50 years.

Conclusions

Diabetes may significantly increase the risks of breast and endometrial cancer in all age stratifications. Health education for strict adherence of cancer screening program in women with diabetes is essential.     

Major Depressive Disorder and Stroke Risks: A 9-Year Follow-Up Population-Based,Matched Cohort Study

Background and Purpose

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is characterized by recurrent depressive episodes and one of the treatment choices is antidepressants. Patients with MDD are at greater risk of developing major metabolic diseases that may in turn lead to stroke. Moreover, both depressive symptoms and taking antidepressant medications are associated with higher risk of stroke. However, whether and how clinical depression increases stroke risk remains an unanswered question. Our aim was to provide answers to this question.

Methods

A matched cohort study of 5015 subjects (1003 MDD patients and 4012 control subjects) was conducted using a nationwide database. Subjects were followed to a maximum of 9 years to determine rates of newly-developed strokes, and controls and MDD groups with different levels of antidepressant refractoriness were compared to determine the temporal relation between stroke and three major metabolic comorbidities (i.e., diabetes mellitus, hypertension and hyperlipidemia). The levels of depressive symptoms and the antidepressant medications before stroke onset were investigated.

Results

Patients with MDD had significantly higher rates of stroke (4.3% vs. 2.8%, p<0.05) during the follow-up. Mediation regression analyses revealed that the occurrence of stroke in the MDD subjects was significantly mediated by the development of major metabolic diseases. Greater severity of depression, but not greater use of antidepressants, preceded the occurrence of stroke.

Conclusions

A clinical diagnosis of major depression leads to stroke indirectly through more intense depressive symptoms and the development of major comorbidities.     

Sarcoidosis in Patients with Psoriasis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Purpose

Psoriasis is a chronic inflammatory disease characterized by a systemic immunological response which is mainly driven by activated T helper (Th) 1 and Th17 lymphocytes. Like psoriasis, sarcoidosis is a chronic inflammatory disorder with Th1/Th17-driven inflammation. Therefore, we investigated the risk of sarcoidosis in patients with psoriasis compared to the background population in a nationwide cohort.

Methods

The study included the entire Danish population aged ≥10 years followed from 1^st January 1997 until diagnosis of sarcoidosis, death or 31^st December 2011. Patients with a history of psoriasis and/or sarcoidosis at baseline were excluded. Information on comorbidity and concomitant medication was identified by individual-level linkage of administrative registers. Incidence rates of sarcoidosis were calculated and adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated by multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for age, gender, comorbidity, medications and socioeconomic status.

Results

A total of 6,043,518 subjects were eligible for analysis. In the study period 70,125 patients with new-onset psoriasis, including 11,834 patients with severe psoriasis, were identified. The overall incidence rates of sarcoidosis were 1.18, 2.22, and 4.06 per 10,000 person-years for the reference population (9,717 cases), mild psoriasis (78 cases) and severe psoriasis (22 cases), respectively. Compared to the reference population, the age- and gender-adjusted HRs for sarcoidosis were increased in patients with psoriasis with HR 1.49 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.18–1.87) and HR 2.51 (CI 1.64–3.85) for those with mild and severe disease, respectively.

Conclusion

In this nationwide cohort, psoriasis was associated with a disease severity-dependent increased risk of sarcoidosis.     

Prevalence and Predictors of Sub-Acute Phase Disability after Injury among Hospitalised and Non-Hospitalised Groups: A Longitudinal Cohort Study

Introduction

To reduce the burden on injury survivors and their supporters, factors associated with poor outcomes need to be identified so that timely post-injury interventions can be implemented. To date, few studies have investigated outcomes for both those who were hospitalised and those who were not.

Aim

To describe the prevalence and to identify pre-injury and injury-related predictors of disability among hospitalised and non-hospitalised people, three months after injury.

Methods

Participants in the Prospective Outcomes of Injury Study were aged 18–64 years and on an injury entitlement claims register with New Zealand''s no-fault injury compensation insurer, following referral by healthcare professionals. A wide range of pre-injury demographic, health and injury-related characteristics were collected at interview. Participants were categorised as ‘hospitalised’ if they were placed on New Zealand''s National Minimum Data Set within seven days of the injury event. Injury severity scores (NISS) and 12 injury categories were derived from ICD-10 codes. WHODAS assessed disability. Multivariable analyses examined relationships between explanatory variables and disability.

Results

Of 2856 participants, 2752 (96%) had WHODAS scores available for multivariable analysis; 673 were hospitalised; 2079 were not. Disability was highly prevalent among hospitalised (53.6%) and non-hospitalised (39.4%) participants, three-months after injury. In both groups, pre-injury disability, obesity and higher injury severity were associated with increased odds of post-injury disability. A range of other factors were associated with disability in only one group: e.g. female, ≥2 chronic conditions and leg fracture among hospitalised; aged 35–54 years, trouble accessing healthcare, spine or lower extremity sprains/dislocations and assault among non-hospitalised.

Significance

Disability was highly prevalent among both groups yet, with a few exceptions, factors associated with disability were not common to both groups. Where possible, including a range of injured people in studies, hospitalised and not, will increase understanding of the burden of disability in the sub-acute phase.     

Maternal Overweight and Obesity and Risks of Severe Birth-Asphyxia-Related Complications in Term Infants: A Population-Based Cohort Study in Sweden

Background

Maternal overweight and obesity increase risks of pregnancy and delivery complications and neonatal mortality, but the mechanisms are unclear. The objective of the study was to investigate associations between maternal body mass index (BMI) in early pregnancy and severe asphyxia-related outcomes in infants delivered at term (≥37 weeks).

Methods and Findings

A nation-wide Swedish cohort study based on data from the Medical Birth Register included all live singleton term births in Sweden between 1992 and 2010. Logistic regression analyses were used to obtain odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CIs for Apgar scores between 0 and 3 at 5 and 10 minutes, meconium aspiration syndrome, and neonatal seizures, adjusted for maternal height, maternal age, parity, mother''s smoking habits, education, country of birth, and year of infant birth. Among 1,764,403 term births, 86% had data on early pregnancy BMI and Apgar scores. There were 1,380 infants who had Apgar score 0–3 at 5 minutes (absolute risk  = 0.8 per 1,000) and 894 had Apgar score 0–3 at 10 minutes (absolute risk  = 0.5 per 1,000). Compared with infants of mothers with normal BMI (18.5–24.9), the adjusted ORs (95% CI) for Apgar scores 0–3 at 10 minutes were as follows: BMI 25–29.9: 1.32 (1.10–1.58); BMI 30–34.9: 1.57 (1.20–2.07); BMI 35–39.9: 1.80 (1.15–2.82); and BMI ≥40: 3.41 (1.91–6.09). The ORs for Apgar scores 0–3 at 5 minutes, meconium aspiration, and neonatal seizures increased similarly with maternal BMI. A study limitation was lack of data on effects of obstetric interventions and neonatal resuscitation efforts.

Conclusion

Risks of severe asphyxia-related outcomes in term infants increase with maternal overweight and obesity. Given the high prevalence of the exposure and the severity of the outcomes studied, the results are of potential public health relevance and should be confirmed in other populations. Prevention of overweight and obesity in women of reproductive age is important to improve perinatal health. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Surgery or Consultation: A Population-Based Cohort Study of Use of Orthopaedic Surgeon Services

Background

This population-based cohort study has the objective to understand the sociodemographic characteristics and health conditions of patients who do not receive surgery within 18 months following an ambulatory visit to an orthopaedic surgeon.

Methods

Administrative healthcare databases in Ontario, Canada were linked to identify all patients making an initial ambulatory visit to orthopaedic surgeons between October 1^st, 2004 and September 30^th, 2005. Logistic regression was used to examine predictors of not receiving surgery within 18 months.

Results

Of the 477,945 patients in the cohort 49% visited orthopaedic surgeons for injury, and 24% for arthritis. Overall, 79.3% did not receive surgery within 18 months of the initial visit, which varied somewhat by diagnosis at first visit (84.5% for injury and 73.0% for arthritis) with highest proportions in the 0–24 and 25–44 age groups. The distribution by income quintile of patients visiting was skewed towards higher incomes. Regression analysis for each diagnostic group showed that younger patients were significantly more likely to be non-surgical than those aged 65+ years (age 0–24: OR 3.45 95%CI 3.33–3.57; age 25–44: OR 1.30 95%CI 1.27–1.33). The odds of not getting surgery were significantly higher for women than men for injury and other conditions; the opposite was true for arthritis and bone conditions.

Conclusion

A substantial proportion of referrals were for expert diagnosis or advice on management and treatment. The findings also suggest socioeconomic inequalities in access to orthopaedic care. Further research is needed to investigate whether the high caseload of non-surgical cases affects waiting times to see a surgeon. This paper contributes to the development of evidence-based strategies to streamline access to surgery, and to develop models of care for non-surgical patients to optimize the use of scarce orthopaedic surgeon resources and to enhance the management of musculoskeletal disorders across the care continuum.     

Rheumatoid Arthritis Risk Associated with Periodontitis Exposure: A Nationwide,Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

The risk of periodontitis (PD) is increased in the patient group of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). RA and PD also shared some pathological mechanism. The aim of this study is to investigate the risk of RA associated with PD exposure.

Methods and Findings

This study identified 3 mutually exclusive cohorts using the 1999–2010 Taiwanese National Health Insurance Research Database (NHIRD) to investigate the association between PD and the risk of incident RA. All patients with PD in 2000 were identified from the database of all enrollees as the PD cohort. From the representative database of 1,000,000 enrollees randomly selected in 2010 (LHID2010), individuals without any periodontal disease (PO) during 1999–2010 were selected as the non-PO cohort. Individuals who were not included in the non-PO cohort and received dental scaling (DS) no more than two times per year during 1999–2010 were selected as the DS cohort from LHID2010. Using cox proportional regression analysis, hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (Cis) were calculated to quantify the association between PD exposure and RA development. In the three-group comparison using the non-PO cohort as reference, we found that the risk of RA was higher in the PD and DS cohorts (HRs, 1.89 and 1.43; 95% CIs, 1.56–2.29 and 1.09–1.87, respectively). For comparisons between two cohorts, the PD cohort had a higher risk of RA than the non-PO and DS cohorts (HRs, 1.91 and 1.35; 95% CIs, 1.57–2.30 and 1.09–1.67, respectively).

Conclusion

PD was associated with an increased risk of RA development.     

Persistence with Statins and Onset of Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

The beneficial effects of statins in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) have been suggested previously, but it is unclear whether statins may prevent its development. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to explore whether persistent use of statins is associated with onset of RA.

Methods and Findings

The computerized medical databases of a large health organization in Israel were used to identify diagnosed RA cases among adults who began statin therapy between 1998 and 2007. Persistence with statins was assessed by calculating the mean proportion of follow-up days covered (PDC) with statins for every study participant. To assess the possible effects of healthy user bias, we also examined the risk of osteoarthritis (OA), a common degenerative joint disease that is unlikely to be affected by use of statins.A total of 211,627 and 193,770 individuals were eligible for the RA and OA cohort analyses, respectively. During the study follow-up period, there were 2,578 incident RA cases (3.07 per 1,000 person-years) and 17,878 incident OA cases (24.34 per 1,000 person-years). The crude incidence density rate of RA among nonpersistent patients (PDC level of <20%) was 51% higher (3.89 per 1,000 person-years) compared to highly persistent patients who were covered with statins for at least 80% of the follow-up period. After adjustment for potential confounders, highly persistent patients had a hazard ratio of 0.58 (95% confidence interval 0.52–0.65) for RA compared with nonpersistent patients. Larger differences were observed in younger patients and in patients initiating treatment with high efficacy statins. In the OA cohort analysis, high persistence with statins was associated only with a modest decrement in risk ratio (hazard ratio = 0.85; 0.81–0.88) compared to nonadherent patients.

Conclusions

The present study demonstrates an association between persistence with statin therapy and reduced risk of developing RA. The relationship between continuation of statin use and OA onset was weak and limited to patients with short-term follow-up. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The Risk of Asthma in Patients with Ankylosing Spondylitis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

BackgroundThe relationship between asthma and ankylosing spondylitis (AS) is controversial. We examined the risk of asthma among AS patients in a nationwide population.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the National Health Insurance (NHI) system of Taiwan. The cohort included 5,974 patients newly diagnosed with AS from 2000 to 2010. The date of diagnosis was defined as the index date. A 4-fold of general population without AS was randomly selected frequency matched by age, gender and the index year. The occurrence and hazard ratio (HR) of asthma were estimated by the end of 2011.ResultsThe overall incidence of asthma was 1.74 folds greater in the AS cohort than in the non-AS cohort (8.26 versus 4.74 per 1000 person-years) with a multivariable Cox method measured adjusted HR of 1.54 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.34–1.76). The adjusted HR of asthma associated with AS was higher in women (1.59; 95% CI, 1.33–1.90), those aged 50–64 years (1.66; 95% CI, 1.31–2.09), or those without comorbidities (1.82; 95% CI, 1.54–2.13).ConclusionPatients with AS are at a higher risk of developing asthma than the general population, regardless of gender and age. The pathophysiology needs further investigation.     

Risk of Breast Cancer in Females With Hypothyroidism: A Nationwide,Population-Based,Cohort Study

ObjectivesThe results of studies investigating the relationship between breast cancer and hypothyroidism vary greatly from study to study. In this study, we analyzed a large and reliable, population-based database to gain a better understanding of the correlation.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study analyzed patients with hypothyroidism between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2012 (hypothyroidism cohort) from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000 in Taiwan. For each woman with hypothyroidism, 1 woman without a history of breast cancer was randomly selected from the Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000 and frequency matched (1:4) with women without hypothyroidism by age and index year of hypothyroidism. The study outcome was the diagnosis of breast cancer during a 12-year follow-up period.ResultsIn this study, 6665 women with hypothyroidism and 26 660 women without hypothyroidism were identified. The hypothyroidism cohort had a significantly higher risk of breast cancer than the nonhypothyroidism cohort (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.69 [95% CI, 1.15-2.49]; P = .01), especially in the group aged 40 to 64 years (aHR 2.07 [95% CI, 1.32-3.23]; P = .01). Women in the hypothyroidism cohort taking levothyroxine for a duration ˃588 days showed a significantly decreased risk of breast cancer (aHR 0.37 [95% CI, 0.19-0.71]; P = .003).ConclusionWomen with hypothyroidism are at a higher risk of breast cancer than those without hypothyroidism. Levothyroxine may reduce the risk of breast cancer in a woman with hypothyroidism.     

Increased Risk of Acute Pancreatitis in Patients with Rheumatoid Arthritis: A Population-Based Cohort Study

The study was conducted to determine whether patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA) are at increased risk of acute pancreatitis compared with those without RA and to determine if the risk of acute pancreatitis varied by anti-RA drug use. We used the large population-based dataset from the National Health Insurance (NHI) program in Taiwan to conduct a retrospective cohort study. Patients newly diagnosed with RA between 2000 and 2011 were referred to as the RA group. The comparator non-RA group was matched with propensity score, using age and sex, in the same time period. We presented the incidence density by 100,000 person-years. The propensity score and all variables were analyzed in fully adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression. The cumulative incidence of acute pancreatitis was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis, with significance based on the log-rank test. From claims data of one million enrollees randomly sampled from the Taiwan NHI database, 29,755 adults with RA were identified and 119,020 non- RA persons were matched as a comparison group. The RA cohort had higher incidence density of acute pancreatitis (185.7 versus 119.0 per 100,000 person-years) than the non-RA cohort. The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) was 1.62 (95% CI [confidence interval] 1.43–1.83) for patients with RA to develop acute pancreatitis. Oral corticosteroid use decreased the risk of acute pancreatitis (adjusted HR 0.83, 95% CI 0.73–0.94) but without a dose-dependent effect. Current use of disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs or tumor necrosis factor blockers did not decrease the risk of acute pancreatitis. In conclusion, patients with RA are at an elevated risk of acute pancreatitis. Use of oral corticosteroids may reduce the risk of acute pancreatitis.     

Increased Childhood Mortality and Arsenic in Drinking Water in Matlab,Bangladesh: A Population-Based Cohort Study

Background

Arsenic in drinking water was associated with increased risk of all-cause, cancer, and cardiovascular death in adults. However, the extent to which exposure is related to all-cause and deaths from cancer and cardiovascular condition in young age is unknown. Therefore, we prospectively assessed whether long-term and recent arsenic exposures are associated with all-cause and cancer and cardiovascular mortalities in Bangladeshi childhood population.

Methods and Findings

We assembled a cohort of 58406 children aged 5–18 years from the Health and Demographic Surveillance System of icddrb in Bangladesh and followed during 2003–2010. There were 185 non-accidental deaths registered in-about 0.4 million person-years of observation. We calculated hazard ratios for cause-specific death in relation to exposure at baseline (µg/L), time-weighted lifetime average (µg/L) and cumulative concentration (µg-years/L). After adjusting covariates, hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause childhood deaths comparing lifetime average exposure 10–50.0, 50.1–150.0, 150.1–300.0 and ≥300.1µg/L were 1.37 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.74–2.57), 1.44 (95% CI, 0.88–2.38), 1.22 (95% CI, 0.75–1.98) and 1.88 (95% CI, 1.14–3.10) respectively. Significant increased risk was also observed for baseline (P for trend = 0.023) and cumulative exposure categories (P for trend = 0.036). Girls had higher mortality risk compared to boys (HR for girls 1.79, 1.21, 1.64, 2.31; HR for boys 0.52, 0.53, 1.14, 0.99) in relation to baseline exposure. For all cancers and cardiovascular deaths combined, multivariable adjusted HRs amounted to 1.53 (95% CI 0.51–4.57); 1.29 (95% CI 0.43–3.87); 2.18 (95%CI 1.15–4.16) for 10.0–50.0, 50.1–150.0, and ≥150.1, comparing lowest exposure as reference (P for trend = 0.009). Adolescents had higher mortality risk compared to children (HRs = 1.53, 95% CI 1.03–2.28 vs. HRs = 1.30, 95% CI 0.78–2.17).

Conclusions

Arsenic exposure was associated with substantial increased risk of deaths at young age from all-cause, and cancers and cardiovascular conditions. Girls and adolescents (12–18 years) had higher risk compared to boys and child.     

Persistence of Health Inequalities in Childhood Injury in the UK; A Population-Based Cohort Study of Children under 5

BackgroundInjury is a significant cause of childhood death and can result in substantial long-term disability. Injuries are more common in children from socio-economically deprived families, contributing to health inequalities between the most and least affluent. However, little is known about how the relationship between injuries and deprivation has changed over time in the UK.MethodsWe conducted a cohort study of all children under 5 registered in one of 495 UK general practices that contributed medical data to The Health Improvement Network database between 1990–2009. We estimated the incidence of fractures, burns and poisonings by age, sex, socio-economic group and calendar period and adjusted incidence rate ratios (IRR) comparing the least and most socio-economically deprived areas over time. Estimates of the UK annual burden of injuries and the excess burden attributable to deprivation were derived from incidence rates.ResultsThe cohort of 979,383 children experienced 20,804 fractures, 15,880 burns and 10,155 poisonings, equating to an incidence of 75.8/10,000 person-years (95% confidence interval 74.8–76.9) for fractures, 57.9 (57.0–58.9) for burns and 37.3 (35.6–38.0) for poisonings. Incidence rates decreased over time for burns and poisonings and increased for fractures (p<0.001 test for trend for each injury). They were significantly higher in more deprived households (IRR test for trend p<0.001 for each injury type) and these gradients persisted over time. We estimate that 865 fractures, 3,763 burns and 3,043 poisonings could be prevented each year in the UK if incidence rates could be reduced to those of the most affluent areas.ConclusionsThe incidence of burns and poisonings declined between 1990 and 2009 but increased for fractures. Despite these changes, strong socio-economic inequalities persisted resulting in an estimated 9,000 additional medically-attended injuries per year in under-5s.     

Stress Hyperglycaemia in Hospitalised Patients and Their 3-Year Risk of Diabetes: A Scottish Retrospective Cohort Study

Background

Hyperglycaemia during hospital admission is common in patients who are not known to have diabetes and is associated with adverse outcomes. The risk of subsequently developing type 2 diabetes, however, is not known.We linked a national database of hospital admissions with a national register of diabetes to describe the association between admission glucose and the risk of subsequently developing type 2 diabetes.

Methods and Findings

In a retrospective cohort study, patients aged 30 years or older with an emergency admission to hospital between 2004 and 2008 were included. Prevalent and incident diabetes were identified through the Scottish Care Information (SCI)-Diabetes Collaboration national registry. Patients diagnosed prior to or up to 30 days after hospitalisation were defined as prevalent diabetes and were excluded.The predicted risk of developing incident type 2 diabetes during the 3 years following hospital discharge by admission glucose, age, and sex was obtained from logistic regression models. We performed separate analyses for patients aged 40 and older, and patients aged 30 to 39 years.Glucose was measured in 86,634 (71.0%) patients aged 40 and older on admission to hospital. The 3-year risk of developing type 2 diabetes was 2.3% (1,952/86,512) overall, was <1% for a glucose ≤5 mmol/l, and increased to approximately 15% at 15 mmol/l. The risks at 7 mmol/l and 11.1 mmol/l were 2.6% (95% CI 2.5–2.7) and 9.9% (95% CI 9.2–10.6), respectively, with one in four (21,828/86,512) and one in 40 (1,798/86,512) patients having glucose levels above each of these cut-points. For patients aged 30–39, the risks at 7 mmol/l and 11.1 mmol/l were 1.0% (95% CI 0.8–1.3) and 7.8% (95% CI 5.7–10.7), respectively, with one in eight (1,588/11,875) and one in 100 (120/11,875) having glucose levels above each of these cut-points.The risk of diabetes was also associated with age, sex, and socio-economic deprivation, but not with specialty (medical versus surgical), raised white cell count, or co-morbidity. Similar results were obtained for pre-specified sub-groups admitted with myocardial infarction, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and stroke.There were 25,193 deaths (85.8 per 1,000 person-years) over 297,122 person-years, of which 2,406 (8.1 per 1,000 person-years) were attributed to vascular disease. Patients with glucose levels of 11.1 to 15 mmol/l and >15 mmol/l had higher mortality than patients with a glucose of <6.1 mmol/l (hazard ratio 1.54; 95% CI 1.42–1.68 and 2.50; 95% CI 2.14–2.95, respectively) in models adjusting for age and sex.Limitations of our study include that we did not have data on ethnicity or body mass index, which may have improved prediction and the results have not been validated in non-white populations or populations outside of Scotland.

Conclusion

Plasma glucose measured during an emergency hospital admission predicts subsequent risk of developing type 2 diabetes. Mortality was also 1.5-fold higher in patients with elevated glucose levels. Our findings can be used to inform patients of their long-term risk of type 2 diabetes, and to target lifestyle advice to those patients at highest risk. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Changing Patterns in Place of Cancer Death in England: A Population-Based Study

Background

Most patients with cancer prefer to die at home or in a hospice, but hospitals remain the most common place of death (PoD).This study aims to explore the changing time trends of PoD and the associated factors, which are essential for end-of-life care improvement.

Methods and Findings

The study analysed all cancer deaths in England collected by the Office for National Statistics during 1993–2010 (n = 2,281,223). Time trends of age- and gender-standardised proportion of deaths in individual PoDs were evaluated using weighted piecewise linear regression. Variables associated with PoD (home or hospice versus hospital) were determined using proportion ratio (PR) derived from the log-binomial regression, adjusting for clustering effects. Hospital remained the most common PoD throughout the study period (48.0%; 95% CI 47.9%–48.0%), followed by home (24.5%; 95% CI 24.4%–24.5%), and hospice (16.4%; 95% CI 16.3%–16.4%). Home and hospice deaths increased since 2005 (0.87%; 95% CI 0.74%–0.99%/year, 0.24%; 95% CI 0.17%–0.32%/year, respectively, p<0.001), while hospital deaths declined (−1.20%; 95% CI −1.41 to −0.99/year, p<0.001). Patients who died from haematological cancer (PRs 0.46–0.52), who were single, widowed, or divorced (PRs 0.75–0.88), and aged over 75 (PRs 0.81–0.84 for 75–84; 0.66–0.72 for 85+) were less likely to die in home or hospice (p<0.001; reference groups: colorectal cancer, married, age 25–54). There was little improvement in patients with lung cancer of dying in home or hospice (PRs 0.87–0.88). Marital status became the second most important factor associated with PoD, after cancer type. Patients from less deprived areas (higher quintile of the deprivation index) were more likely to die at home or in a hospice than those from more deprived areas (lower quintile of the deprivation index; PRs 1.02–1.12). The analysis is limited by a lack of data on individual patients'' preferences for PoD or a clinical indication of the most appropriate PoD.

Conclusions

More efforts are needed to reduce hospital deaths. Health care facilities should be improved and enhanced to support the increased home and hospice deaths. People who are single, widowed, or divorced should be a focus for end-of-life care improvement, along with known at risk groups such as haematological cancer, lung cancer, older age, and deprivation. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary