Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China

This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO₂ emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO₂ emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO₂ emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO₂ emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO₂ emissions. This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO₂ emissions control and mitigation.

     

Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China

This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO₂ emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO₂ emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO₂ emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO₂ emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO₂ emissions. This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO₂ emissions control and mitigation.     

Health and economic benefits of achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Pakistan: A modelling study and economic analysis

BackgroundModelling suggests that achieving the WHO incidence target for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan could cost US$3.87 billion over 2018 to 2030. However, the economic benefits from integrating services or improving productivity were not included.Methods and findingsWe adapt a HCV transmission model for Pakistan to estimate the impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of achieving HCV elimination (reducing annual HCV incidence by 80% by 2030) with stand-alone service delivery, or partially integrating one-third of initial HCV testing into existing healthcare services. We estimate the net economic benefits by comparing the required investment in screening, treatment, and healthcare management to the economic productivity gains from reduced HCV-attributable absenteeism, presenteeism, and premature deaths. We also calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for HCV elimination versus maintaining current levels of HCV treatment. This is compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Pakistan (US$148 to US$198/DALY).Compared to existing levels of treatment, scaling up screening and treatment to achieve HCV elimination in Pakistan averts 5.57 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.80 to 8.22) million DALYs and 333,000 (219,000 to 509,000) HCV-related deaths over 2018 to 2030. If HCV testing is partially integrated, this scale-up requires an investment of US$1.45 (1.32 to 1.60) billion but will result in US$1.30 (0.94 to 1.72) billion in improved economic productivity over 2018 to 2030. This elimination strategy is highly cost-effective (ICER = US$29 per DALY averted) by 2030, with it becoming cost-saving by 2031 and having a net economic benefit of US$9.10 (95% UI 6.54 to 11.99) billion by 2050. Limitations include uncertainty around what level of integration is possible within existing primary healthcare services as well as a lack of Pakistan-specific data on disease-related healthcare management costs or productivity losses due to HCV.ConclusionsInvestment in HCV elimination can bring about substantial societal health and economic benefits for Pakistan.

Aaron G Lim and colleagues model the health and economic benefits of eliminating hepatitis C in Pakistan.     

Greening China's Wastewater Treatment Infrastructure in the Face of Rapid Development: Analysis Based on Material Stock and Flow through 2050

Wastewater treatment infrastructure (WWTI) construction in China has entered an accelerated stage of development in recent years as a result of rapid economic growth, urbanization, and the demand for improving water quality. As a result, a large amount of resources and materials will be allocated for the WWTI, and it is particularly important to find ways to reduce resource consumption effectively so that social dematerialization and sustainable development can be achieved. In this study, we employed the dynamic material flow model to estimate the material flows and stocks of WWTIs and the associated carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions through 2050, considering effects of a rise in water consumption, a longer lifetime, and an increased material recycling rate. Our results indicate that material consumption in WWTIs will increase rapidly through 2025 to meet the needs of the increased volume of discharged wastewater as well as to overcome the shortage of existing wastewater treatment plants. In contrast with the moderate effects of rise in water consumption, prolonging the lifetime will greatly reduce material consumption in WWTI construction during the period 2030–2050, and approximately 60% of the total material input will be saved in the medium‐lifetime scenario, compared with the short‐lifetime scenario. Material output and CO₂ emissions associated with WWTIs will be reduced by 87% and 37%, respectively, in the medium‐lifetime scenario, compared with the short‐lifetime scenario, under high‐water‐consumption growth. Our results highlight the great importance of pipeline construction and cement consumption in resource consumption associated with WWTI construction in China. Moreover, this study also examined the potential ways to reduce material consumption in WWTI construction in the context of the demand chain, the design, construction, operation and management, and demolition.     

Opportunities and challenges of sustainable agricultural development in China

This paper introduces the concepts and aims of sustainable agriculture in China. Sustainable agricultural development comprises sustainability of agricultural production, sustainability of the rural economy, ecological and environmental sustainability within agricultural systems and sustainability of rural society. China's prime aim is to ensure current and future food security. Based on projections of China's population, its economy, societal factors and agricultural resources and inputs between 2000 and 2050, total grain supply and demand has been predicted and the state of food security analysed. Total and per capita demand for grain will increase continuously. Total demand will reach 648 Mt in 2020 and 700 Mt in 2050, while total grain yield of cultivated land will reach 470 Mt in 2010, 585 Mt in 2030 and 656 Mt in 2050. The per capita grain production will be around 360kg in the period 2000-2030 and reach 470kg in 2050. When productivities of cultivated land and other agricultural resources are all taken into consideration, China's food self-sufficiency ratio will increase from 94.4% in 2000 to 101.3% in 2030, suggesting that China will meet its future demand for food and need for food security. Despite this positive assessment, the country's sustainable agricultural development has encountered many obstacles. These include: agricultural water-use shortage; cultivated land loss; inappropriate usage of fertilizers and pesticides, and environmental degradation.     

Effect of Change of Forest Carbon Storage on Net Carbon Dioxide Balance of Wood Use for Energy in Japan

This study analyzed the net carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission reductions between 2005 and 2050 by using wood for energy under various scenarios of forest management and energy conversion technology in Japan, considering both CO₂ emission reductions from replacement of fossil fuels and changes in carbon storage in forests. According to our model, wood production for energy results in a significant reduction of carbon storage levels in forests (by 46% to 77% in 2050 from the 2005 level). Thus, the net CO₂ emission reduction when wood is used for energy becomes drastically smaller. Conventional tree production for energy increases net CO₂ emissions relative to preserving forests, but fast‐growing tree production may reduce net CO₂ emissions more than preserving forests does. When wood from fast‐growing trees is used to generate electricity with gas turbines, displacing natural gas, the net CO₂ emission reduction from the combination of fast‐growing trees and electricity generation with gas turbines is about 58% of the CO₂ emission reduction from electricity generation from gas turbines alone in 2050, and an energy conversion efficiency of around 20% or more is required to obtain net reductions over the entire period until 2050. When wood is used to produce bioethanol, displacing gasoline, net reductions are realized after 2030, provided that heat energy is recovered from residues from ethanol production. These results show the importance of considering the change in carbon storage when estimating the net CO₂ emission reduction effect of the wood use for energy.     

Climate change and broadacre livestock production across southern Australia. 1. Impacts of climate change on pasture and livestock productivity,and on sustainable levels of profitability

Broadacre livestock production is a major but highly diverse component of agriculture in Australia that will be significantly exposed to predicted changes in climate over coming decades. We used the GRAZPLAN simulation models to assess the impacts of climate change under the SRES A2 scenario across southern Australia. Climate change impacts were examined across space (25 representative locations) and time (1970–99, 2030, 2050 and 2070 climate) for each of five livestock enterprises. Climate projection uncertainty was considered by analysing projections from four global circulation models (GCMs). Livestock production scenarios were compared at their profit‐maximizing stocking rate, constrained to ensure that risks of soil erosion were acceptable. Impacts on net primary productivity (ANPP) varied widely between GCM projections; the average declines from historical climate were 9% in 2030, 7% in 2050 and 14% in 2070. Declines in ANPP were larger at lower‐rainfall locations. Sensitivity of ANPP to changes in rainfall ranged from 0.4 to 1.7, to temperature increase from ?0.15 to +0.07 °C^?1 and to CO₂ increase from 0.11 to 0.32. At most locations the dry summer period lengthened, exacerbating the greater erosion risk due to lower ANPP. Transpiration efficiency of pastures increased by 6–25%, but the proportion of ANPP that could safely be consumed by livestock fell sharply so that operating profit (at constant prices) fell by an average of 27% in 2030, 32% in 2050 and 48% in 2070. This amplification of ANPP reductions into larger profitability declines is likely to generalize to other extensive livestock systems. Profit declines were most marked at drier locations, with operating losses expected at 9 of the 25 locations by 2070. Differences between livestock enterprises were smaller than differences between locations and dates. Future research into climate change impacts on Australian livestock production needs to emphasise the dry margin of the cereal‐livestock zone.     

基于TOPSIS模型的海南岛土地综合承载力时空变化及障碍度诊断

土地是人类一切活动的根本,是区域经济与社会发展的重要保障。为探讨海南岛土地综合承载能力,依据2009-2019年统计数据,采用TOPSIS和GM （1.1）模型从时序角度评价并预测了2020-2030年海南岛土地综合承载力,并借助ArcGIS软件和障碍度模型对各市县2015年、2019的土地综合承载力进行动态分析及障碍度诊断。结果显示,海南岛土地综合承载力主要受经济与社会子系统的影响,2009-2019年土地综合承载力水平虽有波动但整体呈缓慢升高趋势,其中水土资源与生态环境子系统贴近度值表现为下降趋势,而经济与社会子系统贴近度值明显升高。预测结果表明2020-2030年土地综合承载力呈持续上升趋势。土地综合承载力空间动态变化差异显著,总体表现为沿海市县综合承载力水平高于内陆市县,2015年与2019年处于较高水平的是海口和三亚,处于中等水平的2015年为8个市县,2019年达到11个市县,处于较低水平的2015年为8个市县,2019年只有5个市县,并且各市县子系统承载力差异显著。障碍度分析表明,2015年和2019年子系统障碍度最高的是经济子系统,2015年障碍因子主要有经济密度（X₉）、地均固定资产投资（X₁₂）、耕地有效灌溉率（X₆）及人均GDP （X₈）;2019年障碍因子主要有经济密度（X₉）、地均固定资产投资（X₁₂）、人均GDP （X₈）及复种指数（X₁₄）。经济发展水平是制约各市县土地综合承载力的主要障碍因素。研究将为海南岛自由贸易港建设中生态环境与社会经济可持续发展提供科学依据。     

Projecting the effects of climate change on the distribution of maize races and their wild relatives in Mexico

Climate change is expected to be a significant threat to biodiversity, including crop diversity at centers of origin and diversification. As a way to avoid food scarcity in the future, it is important to have a better understanding of the possible impacts of climate change on crops. We evaluated these impacts on maize, one of the most important crops worldwide, and its wild relatives Tripsacum and Teocintes. Maize is the staple crop in Mexico and Mesoamerica, and there are currently about 59 described races in Mexico, which is considered its center of origin . In this study, we modeled the distribution of maize races and its wild relatives in Mexico for the present and for two time periods in the future (2030 and 2050), to identify the potentially most vulnerable taxa and geographic regions in the face of climate change. Bioclimatic distribution of crops has seldom been modeled, probably because social and cultural factors play an important role on crop suitability. Nonetheless, rainfall and temperature still represent a major influence on crop distribution pattern, particularly in rainfed crop systems under traditional agrotechnology. Such is the case of Mexican maize races and consequently, climate change impacts can be expected. Our findings generally show significant reductions of potential distribution areas by 2030 and 2050 in most cases. However, future projections of each race show contrasting responses to climatic scenarios. Several evaluated races show new potential distribution areas in the future, suggesting that proper management may favor diversity conservation. Modeled distributions of Tripsacum species and Teocintes indicate more severe impacts compared with maize races. Our projections lead to in situ and ex situ conservation recommended actions to guarantee the preservation of the genetic diversity of Mexican maize.     

Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China

This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO2 emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO2 emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO2 emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO2 emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO2 emissions. This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO2 emissions control and mitigation.     

Emission scenario of non-CO2 gases from energy activities and other sources in China

This paper gives a quantitative analysis on the non-CO2 emissions related to energy demand, energy activities and land use change of six scenarios with different development pattern in 2030 and 2050 based on IPAC emission model. The various mitigation technologies and policies are assessed to understand the corresponding non-CO2 emission reduction effect. The research shows that the future non-CO2 emissions of China will grow along with increasing energy demand, in which thermal power and transportation will be the major emission and mitigation sectors. During the cause of future social and economic development, the control and mitigation of non-CO2 emissions is a problem as challenging and pressing as that of CO2 emissions.This study indicates that the energy efficiency improvement, renewable energy, advanced nuclear power generation, fuel cell, coal-fired combined cycle, clean coal and motor vehicle emission control technologies will contribute to non-CO2 emissions control and mitigation.     

Projecting future grassland productivity to assess the sustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in the Greater Platte River Basin

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha^?1 year^?1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha^?1 year^?1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha^?1 year^?1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.     

Challenges and opportunities for hydrogen production from microalgae

The global population is predicted to increase from ~7.3 billion to over 9 billion people by 2050. Together with rising economic growth, this is forecast to result in a 50% increase in fuel demand, which will have to be met while reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by 50–80% to maintain social, political, energy and climate security. This tension between rising fuel demand and the requirement for rapid global decarbonization highlights the need to fast‐track the coordinated development and deployment of efficient cost‐effective renewable technologies for the production of CO₂ neutral energy. Currently, only 20% of global energy is provided as electricity, while 80% is provided as fuel. Hydrogen (H₂) is the most advanced CO₂‐free fuel and provides a ‘common’ energy currency as it can be produced via a range of renewable technologies, including photovoltaic (PV), wind, wave and biological systems such as microalgae, to power the next generation of H₂ fuel cells. Microalgae production systems for carbon‐based fuel (oil and ethanol) are now at the demonstration scale. This review focuses on evaluating the potential of microalgal technologies for the commercial production of solar‐driven H₂ from water. It summarizes key global technology drivers, the potential and theoretical limits of microalgal H₂ production systems, emerging strategies to engineer next‐generation systems and how these fit into an evolving H₂ economy.     

Integration of system dynamics approach toward deepening and broadening the life cycle sustainability assessment framework: a case for electric vehicles

Purpose

Quantitative life cycle sustainable assessment requires a complex and multidimensional understanding, which cannot be fully covered by the current portfolio of reductionist-oriented tools. Therefore, there is a dire need on a new generation of modeling tools and approaches that can quantitatively assess the economic, social, and environmental dimensions of sustainability in an integrated way. To this end, this research aims to present a practical and novel approach for (1) broadening the existing life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA) framework by considering macrolevel environmental, economic, and social impacts (termed as the triple bottom line), simultaneously, (2) deepening the existing LCSA framework by capturing the complex dynamic relationships between social, environmental, and economic indicators through causal loop modeling, (3) understanding the dynamic complexity of transportation sustainability for the triple bottom line impacts of alternative vehicles, and finally (4) investigating the impacts of various vehicle-specific scenarios as a novel approach for selection of a macrolevel functional unit considering all of the complex interactions in the environmental, social, and economic aspects.

Methods

To alleviate these research objectives, we presented a novel methodology to quantify macrolevel social, economic, and environmental impacts of passenger vehicles from an integrated system analysis perspective. An integrated dynamic LCSA model is utilized to analyze the environmental, economic, and social life cycle impact as well as life cycle cost of alternative vehicles in the USA. System dynamics modeling is developed to simulate the US passenger transportation system and its interactions with economy, the environment, and society. Analysis covers manufacturing and operation phase impacts of internal combustion vehicles (ICVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). In total, seven macrolevel indicators are selected; global warming potential, particulate matter formation, photochemical oxidant formation, vehicle ownership cost, contribution to gross domestic product, employment generation, and human health impacts. Additionally, contribution of vehicle choices to global atmospheric temperature rise and public welfare is investigated.

Results and discussion

BEVs are found to be a better alternative for most of sustainability impact categories. While some of the benefits such as contribution to employment and GDP, CO₂ emission reduction potential of BEVs become greater toward 2050, other sustainability indicators including vehicle ownership cost and human health impacts of BEVs are higher than the other vehicle types on 2010s and 2020s. While the impact shares of manufacturing and operation phases are similar in the early years of 2010s, the contribution of manufacturing phase becomes higher as the vehicle performances increase toward 2050. Analysis results revealed that the US transportation sector, alone, cannot reduce the rapidly increasing atmospheric temperature and the negative impacts of the global climate change, even though the entire fleet is replaced with BEVs. Reducing the atmospheric climate change requires much more ambitious targets and international collaborative efforts. The use of different vehicle types has a small impact on public welfare, which is a function of income, education, and life expectancy indexes.

Conclusions

The authors strongly recommend that the dynamic complex and mutual interactions between sustainability indicators should be considered for the future LCSA framework. This approach will be critical to deepen the existing LCSA framework and to go beyond the current LCSA understanding, which provide a snapshot analysis with an isolated view of all pillars of sustainability. Overall, this research is a first empirical study and an important attempt toward developing integrated and dynamic LCSA framework for sustainable transportation research.

     

海平面上升影响下长江口滨海湿地脆弱性评价

研究滨海湿地对气候变化的响应,评估气候变化对其影响,并提出切实可行的应对策略,是保障海岸带生态系统安全的重要前提.本研究以长江口滨海湿地为对象,采用“源-途径-受体-影响”模型和IPCC脆弱性定义分析了气候变化引起的海平面上升对滨海湿地生态系统的主要影响.构建了基于海平面上升速率、地面沉降速率、生境高程、生境淹水阈值和沉积速率为指标的脆弱性评价指标体系.在GIS平台上量化各脆弱性指标,计算脆弱性指数并分级,建立了海平面上升影响下滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性的定量空间评估方法,实现了在不同海平面上升情景（近30年长江口沿海平均海平面上升速率和IPCC排放情景特别报告中的A₁F₁情景）和时间尺度（2030和2050年）下,长江口滨海湿地生态系统脆弱性的定量空间评价.结果表明： 在近30年长江口平均海平面上升速率（0.26 cm·a^-1）情景下,至2030年,研究区轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的滨海湿地分别占6.6%和0.1%;至2050年,轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的滨海湿地分别占9.8%和0.2%.在A₁F₁ （0.59 cm·a^-1）情景下,至2030年,轻度脆弱和中度脆弱的滨海湿地面积比例分别为9.0%和0.1%;至2050年,轻度脆弱、中度脆弱和高度脆弱的面积比例分别为9.5%、1.0%和0.3%.
     

Lithium-ion battery cell production in Europe: Scenarios for reducing energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions until 2030

The market for electric vehicles is growing rapidly, and there is a large demand for lithium-ion batteries (LIB). Studies have predicted a growth of 600% in LIB demand by 2030. However, the production of LIBs is energy intensive, thus contradicting the goal set by Europe to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and become GHG emission free by 2040. Therefore, in this study, it was analyzed how the energy consumption and corresponding GHG emissions from LIB cell production may develop until 2030. Economic, technological, and political measures were considered and applied to market forecasts and to a model of a state-of-the art LIB cell factory. Notably, different scenarios with trend assumptions and above/below-trend assumptions were considered. It could be deduced that, if no measures are taken and if the status quo is extrapolated to the future, by 2030, ∼5.86 Mt CO₂-eq will be emitted due to energy consumption from European LIB cell production. However, by applying a combination of economic, technological, and political measures, energy consumption and GHG emissions could be decreased by 46% and 56% by 2030, respectively. Furthermore, it was found that political measures, such as improving the electricity mix, are important but less dominant than improving the production technology and infrastructure. In this study, it could be deduced that, by 2030, through industrialization and application of novel production technologies, the energy consumption and GHG emissions from LIB cell production in Europe can be reduced by 24%.     

未来气候变化下栎树猝死病菌在中国的适生性分析

基于中国国家有害生物检疫信息平台的有关记录和文献以及WoldClim网站,获取栎树猝死病菌的地理分布数据及气候数据,并用SPSS软件和刀切法筛选主导环境变量。利用MaxEnt生态位模型和ArcGIS软件,对栎树猝死病菌现代和未来情景下在我国的潜在适生区进行预测,并计算和绘制栎树猝死病菌高风险区质心转移轨迹。通过不同年份和不同气候情况下的受试者工作特征曲线(ROC)的训练集和测试集受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)值均大于0.91,说明MaxEnt模型准确并适用于预测栎树猝死病菌在我国的潜在分布,同时结合其主要寄主植物的地理分布进一步增强预测模型的可信度。预测结果表明,最冷季度降水量、最冷季度平均温度、最干季度平均温度和年均降水量是影响栎树猝死病菌分布的主要环境变量。而2030s(2021—2040年)、2050s(2041—2060年)和2070s(2061—2080年)在3种气候情景下(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP5-8.5),栎树猝死病菌的潜在适生区相较于现代情景下都有所增加。此外,高风险区面积在3个年代3种情景下的面积增长率均高于45%。高风险区质心变化的预测结果表...     

Risk Levels of Invasive Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. in Areas Suitable for Date Palm (Phoenix dactylifera) Cultivation under Various Climate Change Projections

Global climate model outputs involve uncertainties in prediction, which could be reduced by identifying agreements between the output results of different models, covering all assumptions included in each. Fusarium oxysporum f.sp. is an invasive pathogen that poses risk to date palm cultivation, among other crops. Therefore, in this study, the future distribution of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., confirmed by CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) and MIROC-H (MR) GCMs, was modeled and combined with the future distribution of date palm predicted by the same GCMs, to identify areas suitable for date palm cultivation with different risk levels of invasive Fusarium oxysporum f.sp., for 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. Results showed that 40%, 37%, 33% and 28% areas projected to become highly conducive to date palm are under high risk of its lethal fungus, compared with 37%, 39%, 43% and 42% under low risk, for the chosen years respectively. Our study also indicates that areas with marginal risk will be limited to 231, 212, 186 and 172 million hectares by 2030, 2050, 2070 and 2100. The study further demonstrates that CLIMEX outputs refined by a combination of different GCMs results of different species that have symbiosis or parasite relationship, ensure that the predictions become robust, rather than producing hypothetical findings, limited purely to publication.     

A bottom-up modeling of metabolism of the residential building system in China toward 2050

This study predicted the metabolic process of the residential building system in China toward 2050 by addressing the detailed provincial patterns and urban–rural disparity and the characterizing metabolisms of building materials in detail. The results show that after a rapid growth during 1980–1990, the in-use stocks of residential buildings in China are expected to slow down in around 2030, reaching 75 billion m² in 2050. Urban regions will account for 80% of total stocks, and provinces in the eastern and southern coastal areas will have the largest share. As demolition lags construction, the end-of-life residential buildings will continue to grow steadily with huge urban–rural and provincial differences, reaching 1.4 billion m² by 2050. Regarding the metabolism of building materials, the inflow of most materials will decrease after 2030, while the outflow will increase steadily toward inflow. Based on the recycling outlook of construction and demolition waste and the corresponding environmental benefit, it is indicated that under the Chinese government's ambitious planning and vigorous promotion, prior to the middle of the century, the building system has the potential to transition to a sustainable future that meets residents’ housing needs with a remarkable decreasing input of raw materials thereby notably decreasing pressures on the environment, which will significantly benefit the goal of carbon neutrality in China.     

Working conditions in hydrogen production: A social life cycle assessment

Social impacts of novel technology can, parallel to environmental and economic consequences, influence its sustainability. By analyzing the case of hydrogen production by advanced alkaline water electrolysis (AEL) from a life cycle perspective, this paper illustrates the social implications of the manufacturing of the electrolyzer and hydrogen production when installed in Germany, Austria, and Spain. This paper complements previous environmental and economic assessments, which selected this set of countries based on their different structures in electricity production. The paper uses a mixed method design to analyze the social impact for the workers along the process chain. Appropriate indicators related to working conditions are selected on the basis of the UN Agenda 2030 Sustainable Development Goals. The focus on workers is chosen as a first example to test the relatively new Product Social Impact Life Cycle Assessment (PSILCA) database version 2.0. The results of the quantitative assessment are then complemented and compared through an investigation of the underlying raw data and a qualitative literature analysis. Overall, advanced AEL is found to have least social impact along the German process chain, followed by the Spanish and the Austrian. All three process chains show impacts on global upstream processes. In order to reduce social impact and ultimately contribute to Sustainable Development, policymakers and industry need to work together to further improve certain aspects of working conditions in different locations, particularly within global upstream processes.