Are indirect measures of abundance a useful index of population density? The case of red grouse harvesting

Indirect measures of population abundance, such as harvest data, are often used to make inference on long term population dynamics when direct data are either not available or are logistically difficult to obtain. However, when harvesting records are used, a common concern is that they may not reflect actual population abundance. We investigated the extent to which harvest data reflected changes in population density of the red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus in Great Britain. We used 92 independently managed populations over the period 1977–2000 and examined the temporal and spatial variability of the hunting records and independently obtained count data from each of these managed estates. Three different analyses support the conclusion that grouse hunting records are a reliable indicator of grouse abundance: 1) the number of red grouse shot in autumn showed a tendency to be linearly related to the density of individuals counted in the summer prior to the harvesting, 2) the relationships between the variance and the mean in the harvesting and corresponding count data, calculated over different populations at the same time, or the same locations at different times, were not statistically distinguishable, 3) similar direct and delayed density dependence patterns were observed in hunting records and count data. Our results suggest that red grouse hunting time series are a good proxy for population abundance.     

Genetic mark–recapture population estimation in black bears and issues of scale

Abundance estimates for black bears (Ursus americanus) are important for effective management. Recently, DNA technology has resulted in widespread use of noninvasive, genetic capture–mark–recapture (CMR) approaches to estimate populations. Few studies have compared the genetic CMR methods to other estimation methods. We used genetic CMR to estimate the bear population at 2 study sites in northern New Hampshire (Pittsburg and Milan) in 2 consecutive years. We compared these estimates to those derived from traditional methods used by the New Hampshire Fish and Game Department (NHFG) using hunter harvest and mortality data. Density estimates produced with genetic CMR methods were similar both years and were comparable to those derived from traditional methods. In 2006, the estimated number of bears in Pittsburg was 79 (95% CI = 60–98) corresponding to a density of 15–24 (95% CI) bears/100 km²; the 2007 estimate was 83 (95% CI = 67–99; density = 16–24 bears/100 km²). In 2006, the estimated number of bears in Milan was 95 (95% CI = 74–117; density = 16–25 bears/100 km²); the 2007 estimate was 96 (95% CI = 77–114; density = 17–25 bears/100 km²). We found that genetic CMR methods were able to identify demographic variation at a local scale, including a strongly skewed sex ratio (2 M:1 F) in the Milan population. Genetic CMR is a useful tool for wildlife managers to monitor populations of local concern, where abundance or demographic characteristics may deviate from regional estimates. Future monitoring of the Milan population with genetic CMR is recommended to determine if the sex ratio bias continues, possibly warranting a change in local harvest regimes. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Tree population changes in a tropical dry evergreen forest of south India over a decade (1992–2002)

Changes in species composition and density of trees >10 cm gbh in a tropical dry evergreen forest in Puthupet, south India are interpreted for the period between 1992 and 2002. A 1-ha plot was inventoried in 1992 and was recensused in 2002. During the 10-year interval tree taxa diversity as well as stand density increased, but the basal area value decreased. Tree species richness increased by 21% (from 24 to 29 species) by an addition of eight species and local extinction of three species. The tree density increased just by eight individuals (from 1330 stems ha⁻¹ in 1992 to 1338 ha⁻¹ in 2002), but the basal area decreased by 8% (from 37.5 to 34.5 m² ha⁻¹). Many species (11 numbers) have increased in abundance rather than decreased. Many surviving species seem to have considerable stability in abundance at the local scale. The density of smaller stems (10 29 cm gbh) increased by 15.3%, while that of the larger trees decreased drastically (81.6%). Ninety percent of the missing stems were from the middlestorey of the forest. Tree density changes among the three ecological guilds revealed a decrease in stem density and an increase in basal area in the lowerstorey; while the middlestorey exhibited a reverse trend. Family-wise, tree density changes revealed that the majority of families (67%) showed an increase in stem density. Long-term studies on tree population changes are essential to estimate tree mortality and recruitment rates, which will provide a greater insight in tropical forest dynamics.     

The effect of change of number of OTU’s in a numerical taxonomic study

The effect of change of number of OTU’s (operational taxonomic units) in a numerical taxonomic study was investigated using 28 taxospecies of the genusSalix in California and 22 sites of sect.Sitchenses of the genus. A coefficient of Euclidean distance was used to estimate relationships among the OTU’s based on 99 morphological characters. Two methods of clustering were employed: 1) Tryon’s key communality cluster analysis, and 2) the unweighted pair group method. The latter results in a phenogram. It was found that the number of OTU’s employed does make a difference. But the difference is not random and is centered around those OTU’s most closely related to the OTU’s being added.     

Statistical indicators and state–space population models predict extinction in a population of bobwhite quail

Early warning systems of extinction thresholds have been developed for and tested in microcosm experiments, but have not been applied to populations of wild animals. We used state–space population models and a statistical indicator to detect a transcritical bifurcation extinction threshold in a population of bobwhite quail (Colinus virginianus) located in an agricultural region experiencing habitat deterioration and loss. The extinction threshold was detectible using two independent data sets. We compared predictions from state–space population models to predictions from a statistical indicator and found that predictions were corroborated. Using state–space population models, we estimated that our study population crossed the extinction threshold in 2010 (2002–2036; 95 % confidence intervals [CI]) using the whistle count (WC) data set and in 2008 (1999–2064; 95 % CI) using the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) data. With the statistical indicator, we estimated that the extinction threshold will be crossed in 2018 (2004–2031; 95 % CI) using the WC data and will be crossed in 2012 (2006–2018; 95 % CI) using the BBS data. We expect extinction in our study population soon after crossing the extinction threshold, but the time to extinction and potential reversibility of the threshold are unknown. Our results suggest that neither small nor decreasing population size will warn of the transcritical bifurcation extinction threshold. We suggest that managers of wildlife populations in regions experiencing land use change should try to predict extinction thresholds and make management decisions to ensure the persistence of the species.     

The impact of desegregation on black teachers in the metropolis, 1970–2000

One-third of public school students are racial and/or ethnic minorities. Yet only 14 per cent of teachers represent these groups. Frequently lost in broader debates concerning this disparity is the paradoxical contribution of the 1954 Brown v. Board of Education decision. Schools were mandated under Brown to desegregate the student body. But the law did not necessarily protect the jobs of black teachers and administrators. Using a unique database of court orders, we examine the impact of mandated desegregation on black teachers. Findings indicate regional differences. Mandated desegregation created conditions that resulted in decreases in the black teaching force in the South. The opposite occurred in the non-south, with mandated desegregation positively associated with increases (although small) in the black teaching force. Our findings suggest that the legacy of mandated desegregation may have created broader institutional conditions in which black and other minority teachers remain underrepresented in the teaching force.     

The history of comparative anatomy in Jena — an overview

Summary Comparative anatomy and zoology both have long academic traditions in Jena. At first, the two subjects developed in parallel and had many similarites in research topics. This development is covered in the first part of the paper. The close relationship between the two subjects started to break apart when Carl Gegenbaur and Ernst Haeckel were active at Jena University. In 1865 Haeckel became the first full professor of zoology in Jena, and zoology became more independent from comparative anatomy. In the second part of our paper, we follow the developments in comparative anatomy in Jena from Gegenbaur’s immediate students up until the end of Hans B?ker’s tenure in Jena in the mid-1930s. Certain subjects are in focus throughout this period, for example vertebrate head morphology and development, (the “head problem”), the relationship between anatomy and biology, and evolutionary questions. Some of these subjects have remained important research topics in zoology and comparative anatomy in Jena until the present day.     

The anatomy of ‘race trouble’ in online interactions

South Africa has a long history of race-related conflicts in a variety of settings, but the use of the concept ‘racism’ to analyse such conflicts is characterized by theoretical and methodological difficulties. In this article, we apply the alternative ‘race trouble’ framework developed by Durrheim, Mtose, and Brown (2011) to the examination of racialized conflicts in online newspaper forums. We analyse the conflicts using an approach informed by conversation analytic and discursive psychological techniques, focusing in particular on the emergence and use of race and racism as interactional resources. Our findings reveal some mechanisms through which the continuing salience of race in South Africa comes to be reproduced in everyday interactions, thereby suggesting reasons why race continues to garner social and cultural importance. Disagreements over the nature of racism were also recurrent in the exchanges that we examined, demonstrating the contested and shifting meanings of this concept in everyday interactions.     

Can balancing selection on MHC loci counteract genetic drift in small fragmented populations of black grouse?

The ability of natural populations to adapt to new environmental conditions is crucial for their survival and partly determined by the standing genetic variation in each population. Populations with higher genetic diversity are more likely to contain individuals that are better adapted to new circumstances than populations with lower genetic diversity. Here, we use both neutral and major histocompatibility complex (MHC) markers to test whether small and highly fragmented populations hold lower genetic diversity than large ones. We use black grouse as it is distributed across Europe and found in populations with varying degrees of isolation and size. We sampled 11 different populations; five continuous, three isolated, and three small and isolated. We tested patterns of genetic variation in these populations using three different types of genetic markers: nine microsatellites and 21 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) which both were found to be neutral, and two functional MHC genes that are presumably under selection. The small isolated populations displayed significantly lower neutral genetic diversity compared to continuous populations. A similar trend, but not as pronounced, was found for genotypes at MHC class II loci. Populations were less divergent at MHC genes compared to neutral markers. Measures of genetic diversity and population genetic structure were positively correlated among microsatellites and SNPs, but none of them were correlated to MHC when comparing all populations. Our results suggest that balancing selection at MHC loci does not counteract the power of genetic drift when populations get small and fragmented.     

The strategy of “The strategy of model building in population biology”

In this essay, I argue for four related claims. First, Richard Levins’ classic “The Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology” was a statement and defense of theoretical population biology growing out of collaborations between Robert MacArthur, Richard Lewontin, E. O. Wilson, and others. Second, I argue that the essay served as a response to the rise of systems ecology especially as pioneered by Kenneth Watt. Third, the arguments offered by Levins against systems ecology and in favor of his own methodological program are best construed as “pragmatic”. Fourth, I consider limitations of Levins’ arguments given contemporary population biology.

The population status of Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus in Scotland during winter 2015–16

Capsule: The population size of Western Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus in Scotland was estimated at 1114 individuals with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 805–1505.

Aim: To produce an updated estimate of Capercaillie population size in Scotland, with improved precision from, but retaining comparability with, previous surveys.

Methods: A random sample of 2?km long line transects was surveyed throughout the current range of the Capercaillie, during winter 2015–16, with sampling in three separate strata. Multi-covariate distance sampling was used to fit detection functions to the Capercaillie data, deriving national, regional and sex-specific estimates of density and abundance.

Results: Across 741 transects, 136 Capercaillie were recorded in 120 separate encounters, giving rise to a population estimate of 1114 individuals (95% CIs: 805–1505). This estimate is 13% lower than that from the previous survey in 2009–10 but the difference is not statistically significant. Most of the population (83%) was estimated to occur in Strathspey, with much smaller numbers in the rest of the range.

Conclusion: The Capercaillie population in Scotland remains at a critically low level. Further evidence of decline in edge of range subpopulations raises serious concern over the viability of Capercaillie in these areas, whereas numbers appear stable in the core of the range in Strathspey. The use of a revised survey design, with greater sampling in the core of the range, improved estimate precision.     

The associations of morningness–eveningness with anger and impulsivity in the general population

The aim of this study was to investigate the relationships among morningness–eveningness, impulsivity and anger in the general population. A total of 1000 community-dwelling subjects (500 males) aged 20–77 years (mean± SD age: 39.6 ± 11.6 years) completed the morningness–eveningness questionnaire (MEQ), Barratt impulsiveness scale (BIS), Spielberger State–Trait Anger Expression Inventory (STAXI) and Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale. Moderation and mediation analyses were performed to determine whether the relationship between two variables depended on the third variable, referred to as a moderator, and whether the third variable, known as a mediator, was associated with the other two variables establishing causation. The MEQ scores exhibited significant negative associations with BIS (p < 0.001) and STAXI (p < 0.001) scores, and high scores on the BIS were associated with high scores on the STAXI (p < 0.001). Impulsivity, as measured by the BIS, played a role as a moderator (p < 0.001) in the relationship between MEQ and STAXI, and anger, as measured by the STAXI, acted as moderator (p = 0.030) in the association between MEQ and BIS. However, after controlling for the interaction of the BIS and MEQ, the MEQ scores did not significantly predict STAXI scores (p = 0.070). Additionally, the effect size of the mediating effect of the BIS scores on the relationship between the MEQ and STAXI (percent mediation: 53.2%) was larger than that of the STAXI scores on the association between the MEQ and BIS (percent mediation: 31.8%). The present results demonstrate that morningness–eveningness was closely related with both impulsivity and anger in the general population. Furthermore, these findings suggest that impulsivity may exercise a great influence on the association between morningness–eveningness and anger in two ways: as a moderator by modulating this relationship based on the level of impulsivity and as a mediator by acting as an intermediary factor.     

Responses of benthic–pelagic coupling to climate change in a temperate estuary

This article reports the first demonstration of the impact of climate change on benthic–pelagic coupling and the biogeochemical cycles of a coastal marine system. Over the last 30 years Narragansett Bay, a 328-km² temperate estuary on the east coast of the United States, has undergone a variety of ecological changes. Building on a robust data set that spans three decades, we present a link between warming (+1.7°C in annual mean water temperature) in the bay and a marked decrease in sediment oxygen consumption, in the fluxes of ammonium and phosphate from sediments to the overlying water, and in sediment denitrification. We attribute this reduction in biogeochemical exchange to a dramatic drop in the standing crop of water-column chlorophyll as the system has shifted from one characterized by a dominant winter–spring bloom to one supported by more ephemeral and less intense summer–autumn blooms. The recent climate-induced oligotrophication of the bay will be further exacerbated by forthcoming nitrogen reductions due to tertiary sewage treatment. Guest editors: J. H. Andersen & D. J. Conley Eutrophication in Coastal Ecosystems: Selected papers from the Second International Symposium on Research and Management of Eutrophication in Coastal Ecosystems, 20–23 June 2006, Nyborg, Denmark     

The accumulation of deleterious genes in a population—Muller's Ratchet

A quantitative study of the operation of Muller's Ratchet for the accumulation of deleterious genes in an asexually reproducing population is made. For a population of size N, in which deleterious mutations occur at rate λ/genome/ generation, and the relative fitness of an individual with k mutants is (1 ? s)^k, the most important parameter is $\text{n}{}_0\text{= Ne}{}^{\mathrm{?\theta }}\text{,}\text{where}\text{θ =}\text{λ}\text{s}$. If n₀ is large (?25), deleterious mutations will accumulate very slowly, and independently of each other; if n₀ is small (<1), the rate of accumulation of deleterious mutations will be greater than a natural population could plausibly bear; an estimate of the speed of the Ratchet for intermediate values of n₀ is made. It is pointed out that the frequency distribution for the numbers of individuals carrying k mutants will retain its shape, but will move bodily to the right at the same average speed as the Ratchet. When favourable mutations also occur, the frequency distributions can move right of left; an estimate of the probability that any particular step is right or left is made, and it is shown that, for a given net rate of arrisal of deleterious mutations, the greater the rate of beneficial mutation, the greater the chance that beneficial mutations will accumulate.     

Evolution of birth intervals in a french rural population (1840–1950)

This study presents the first results concerning the evolution of the birth intervals since 1840 among a rural population of the centre of France, where birth control appeared as far back as the end of the 18th Century. We observe the absence of variation of the average interval between successive briths in relation to the period of marriage, family size and socio-economic status of spouses. This confirms that child spacing does not play a part in the constitution of family. The average intervals between marriage and first birth are associated with most of the variables, essentially due to the marrying age and to a lesser extent to the family size. This rural population, in spite of a modern profile by the widespread practice of birth control, still presents traditional attitudes in the structure of its fertility as is indicated by the absence of birth spreading and the important part which seems to be played by the marriage age of women.     

Polymorphism of α1-antitrypsin in a Portuguese population

Summary Serum Pi phenotypes were studied in 219 samples. The MM phenotype was the most common as in all other populations. The frequencies of Pi^S and Pi^Z were high considering other populations.Pi^F was not detected.This investigation was supported by a grant from Instituto de Alta Cultura (Project LMC.-10).     

The contribution of polymorphism in the alcohol dehydrogenase β subunit to alcohol sensitivity in a Japanese population

In humans, ingested alcohol is mainly metabolized by the combination of class I alcohol dehydrogenase (ADH) and aldehyde dehydrogenase (ALDH). In Orientals, there are highly frequent polymorphisms both in the class I ADH β subunit (ADH₂) and in the low K_m ALDH (ALDH2). We characterized the three genotypes of ALDH2 in a Japanese population. In the present study, we evaluated the effects of the ADH₂ polymorphism in the same population (424 males and 100 females) controlling for the effects of the ALDH2 polymorphism. In the ALDH2¹/ALDH2² group, the frequency of facial flushing with one glass of beer was significantly higher in the ADH₂ ¹/ADH₂ ² and ADH₂ ²/ADH₂ ² genotype than in the ADH₂ ¹/ADH₂ ¹ genotype. Likewise, the proportion of persons with positive results for ethanol-induced cutaneous erythema differed significantly depending on the ADH₂ genotype in both the ALDH2¹/ALDH2¹ and ALDH2¹/ ALDH2² genotypes. However, drinking habits were not significantly associated with the ADH₂ genotype, suggesting that the ADH₂ genotype influences the metabolism of ethanol only in the peripheral tissues. Received: 25 April 1995 / Revised: 25 September 1995     

The scaling of colony size with nest volume in termites: a role in population dynamics?

1. Colony size is often attributed a key role in social insect population ecology. However, in nest‐building termites, colony size is a power function of nest volume, so that colonies of species with low scaling exponents tend to grow less as their nests are expanded. Thus, in such species, intercolonial differences in colony size may be less likely to develop, and changes in species total biomass may largely reflect those in colony numbers rather than colony sizes.
2. The scaling of colony biomass with nest volume in three termite species, namely Anoplotermes banksiEmerson, Neocapritermes braziliensis Snyder and Labiotermes labralis Holmgren was determined. Then, their nests were counted and their total biomass in plots across an Amazonian rainforest landscape was estimated. Finally, whether the strength of the relationship between total biomass and number of nests reflected species scaling exponents was examined.
3. Scaling exponents were 0.47 for N. braziliensis, 0.57 for A. banksi, and 0.83 for L. labralis. On the other hand, the strength of the relationship between total biomass and the number of nests (r²) followed the opposite trend: 0.93 for N. braziliensis, 0.92 for A. banksi, and 0.53 for L. labralis.
4. It is suggested that the scaling of colony size with nest volume may mediate termite population dynamics: as the scaling exponent decreases across species, changes in total biomass would increasingly reflect changes in colony numbers, with an accompanying increase in the importance of colony births and deaths as opposed to colony growth.