Demographic response of tundra small mammals to a snow fencing experiment

Snow cover is a key environmental component for tundra wildlife that will be affected by climate change. Change to the snow cover may affect the population dynamics of high‐latitude small mammals, which are active throughout the winter and reproduce under the snow. We experimentally tested the hypotheses that a deeper snow cover would enhance the densities and winter reproductive rates of small mammals, but that predation by mustelids could be higher in areas of increased small mammal density. We enhanced snow cover by setting out snow fences at three sites in the Canadian Arctic (Bylot Island, Nunavut, and Herschel Island and Komakuk Beach, Yukon) over periods ranging from one to four years. Densities of winter nests were higher where snow depth was increased but spring lemming densities did not increase on the experimental areas. Lemmings probably moved from areas of deep snow, their preferred winter habitat, to summer habitat during snow melt once the advantages associated with deep snow were gone. Our treatment had no effect on signs of reproduction in winter nests, proportion of lactating females in spring, or the proportion of juveniles caught in spring, which suggests that deep snow did not enhance reproduction. Results on predation were inconsistent across sites as predation by weasels was higher on the experimental area at one site but lower at two others and was not higher in areas of winter nest aggregations. Although this experiment provided us with several new insights about the impact of snow cover on the population dynamics of tundra small mammals, it also illustrates the challenges and difficulties associated with large‐scale experiments aimed at manipulating a critical climatic factor.     

Predator behaviour and predation risk in the heterogeneous Arctic environment

1. Habitat heterogeneity and predator behaviour can strongly affect predator-prey interactions but these factors are rarely considered simultaneously, especially when systems encompass multiple predators and prey. 2. In the Arctic, greater snow geese Anser caerulescens atlanticus L. nest in two structurally different habitats: wetlands that form intricate networks of water channels, and mesic tundra where such obstacles are absent. In this heterogeneous environment, goose eggs are exposed to two types of predators: the arctic fox Vulpes lagopus L. and a diversity of avian predators. We hypothesized that, contrary to birds, the hunting ability of foxes would be impaired by the structurally complex wetland habitat, resulting in a lower predation risk for goose eggs. 3. In addition, lemmings, the main prey of foxes, show strong population cycles. We thus further examined how their fluctuations influenced the interaction between habitat heterogeneity and fox predation on goose eggs. 4. An experimental approach with artificial nests suggested that foxes were faster than avian predators to find unattended goose nests in mesic tundra whereas the reverse was true in wetlands. Foxes spent 3.5 times more time between consecutive attacks on real goose nests in wetlands than in mesic tundra. Their attacks on goose nests were also half as successful in wetlands than in mesic tundra whereas no difference was found for avian predators. 5. Nesting success in wetlands (65%) was higher than in mesic tundra (56%) but the difference between habitats increased during lemming crashes (15%) compared to other phases of the cycle (5%). Nests located at the edge of wetland patches were also less successful than central ones, suggesting a gradient in accessibility of goose nests in wetlands for foxes. 6. Our study shows that the structural complexity of wetlands decreases predation risk from foxes but not avian predators in arctic-nesting birds. Our results also demonstrate that cyclic lemming populations indirectly alter the spatial distribution of productive nests due to a complex interaction between habitat structure, prey-switching and foraging success of foxes.     

Lemming winter habitat choice: a snow-fencing experiment

The insulative value of early and deep winter snow is thought to enhance winter reproduction and survival by arctic lemmings (Lemmus and Dicrostonyx spp). This leads to the general hypothesis that landscapes with persistently low lemming population densities, or low amplitude population fluctuations, have a low proportion of the land base with deep snow. We experimentally tested a component of this hypothesis, that snow depth influences habitat choice, at three Canadian Arctic sites: Bylot Island, Nunavut; Herschel Island, Yukon; Komakuk Beach, Yukon. We used snow fencing to enhance snow depth on 9-ha tundra habitats, and measured the intensity of winter use of these and control areas by counting rodent winter nests in spring. At all three sites, the density of winter nests increased in treated areas compared to control areas after the treatment, and remained higher on treated areas during the treatment. The treatment was relaxed at one site, and winter nest density returned to pre-treatment levels. The rodents’ proportional use of treated areas compared to adjacent control areas increased and remained higher during the treatment. At two of three sites, lemmings and voles showed significant attraction to the areas of deepest snow accumulation closest to the fences. The strength of the treatment effect appeared to depend on how quickly the ground level temperature regime became stable in autumn, coincident with snow depths near the hiemal threshold. Our results provide strong support for the hypothesis that snow depth is a primary determinant of winter habitat choice by tundra lemmings and voles.     

Wintering space use and site fidelity in a nomadic species,the snowy owl

Migratory species can exploit many habitats over vast geographic areas and adopt various patterns of space and habitat use throughout their annual cycle. In nomadic species, determinants of habitat use during the non‐breeding season are poorly known due to the unpredictability of their movement patterns. Here, we analysed variability in wintering space and habitat use by a highly nomadic species, the snowy owl, in eastern North America. Using 21 females tracked by satellite telemetry between 2007 and 2016, we 1) assessed how space use patterns in winter varied according to the type of environment (marine vs terrestrial), latitudinal zone (Arctic vs temperate), local snow conditions and lemming densities and 2) investigated winter habitat and site fidelity. Our results confirmed a high inter‐individual variation in patterns of habitat use by wintering snowy owls. Highly‐used areas were concentrated in the Arctic and in the marine and coastal environments. Owls wintering in the marine environment travelled over longer distances during the winter, had larger home ranges and these were divided in more smaller zones than individuals in terrestrial environments. Wintering home range sizes decreased with high winter lemming densities, use of the marine environment increased following high summer lemming densities, and a thick snow cover in autumn led to later settlement on the wintering ground. Contrary to expectations, snowy owls tended to make greater use of the marine environment when snow cover was thin. Snowy owls were highly consistent in their use of a given wintering environment and a specific latitudinal zone between years, but demonstrated flexibility in their space use and a modest site fidelity. The snowy owls’ consistency in wintering habitat use may provide them with advantages in terms of experience but their mobility and flexibility may help them to cope with changing environmental conditions at fine spatial scale.     

Benefiting from a migratory prey: spatio-temporal patterns in allochthonous subsidization of an Arctic predator

1.?Flows of nutrients and energy across ecosystem boundaries have the potential to subsidize consumer populations and modify the dynamics of food webs, but how spatio-temporal variations in autochthonous and allochthonous resources affect consumers' subsidization remains largely unexplored. 2.?We studied spatio-temporal patterns in the allochthonous subsidization of a predator living in a relatively simple ecosystem. We worked on Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada), where arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus L.) feed preferentially on lemmings (Lemmus trimucronatus and Dicrostonyx groenlandicus Traill), and alternatively on colonial greater snow geese (Anser caerulescens atlanticus L.). Geese migrate annually from their wintering grounds (where they feed on farmlands and marshes) to the Canadian Arctic, thus generating a strong flow of nutrients and energy across ecosystem boundaries. 3.?We examined the influence of spatial variations in availability of geese on the diet of fox cubs (2003-2005) and on fox reproductive output (1996-2005) during different phases of the lemming cycle. 4.?Using stable isotope analysis and a simple statistical routine developed to analyse the outputs of a multisource mixing model (SIAR), we showed that the contribution of geese to the diet of arctic fox cubs decreased with distance from the goose colony. 5.?The probability that a den was used for reproduction by foxes decreased with distance from the subsidized goose colony and increased with lemming abundance. When lemmings were highly abundant, the effect of distance from the colony disappeared. The goose colony thus generated a spatial patterning of reproduction probability of foxes, while the lemming cycle generated a strong temporal variation of reproduction probability of foxes. 6.?This study shows how the input of energy owing to the large-scale migration of prey affects the functional and reproductive responses of an opportunistic consumer, and how this input is spatially and temporally modulated through the foraging behaviour of the consumer. Thus, perspectives of both landscape and foraging ecology are needed to fully resolve the effects of subsidies on animal demographic processes and population dynamics.     

Predator–prey relationships: arctic foxes and lemmings

1. The number of breeding dens and litter sizes of arctic foxes Alopex lagopus were recorded and the diet of the foxes was analysed during a ship-based expedition to 17 sites along the Siberian north coast. At the same time the cyclic dynamics of co-existing lemming species were examined.
2. The diet of arctic foxes was dominated by the Siberian lemming Lemmus sibiricus (on one site the Norwegian lemming L. lemmus ), followed by the collared lemming Dicrostonyx torquatus .
3. The examined Lemmus sibiricus populations were in different phases of the lemming cycle as determined by age profiles and population densities.
4. The numerical response of arctic foxes to varying densities of Lemmus had a time lag of 1 year, producing a pattern of limit cycles in lemming–arctic fox interactions. Arctic fox litter sizes showed no time lag, but a linear relation to Lemmus densities. We found no evidence for a numerical response to population density changes in Dicrostonyx .
5. The functional or dietary response of arctic foxes followed a type II curve for Lemmus , but a type III response curve for Dicrostonyx .
6. Arctic foxes act as resident specialist for Lemmus and may increase the amplitude and period of their population cycles. For Dicrostonyx , on the other hand, arctic foxes act as generalists which suggests a capacity to dampen oscillations.     

Seasonal pulses of migratory prey and annual variation in small mammal abundance affect abundance and reproduction by arctic foxes

We examined how large seasonal influxes of migratory prey influenced population dynamics of arctic foxes and how this varied with fluctuations in small mammal (lemming and vole) abundance—the main prey of arctic foxes throughout most of their range. Specifically, we compared how arctic fox abundance, breeding density and litter size varied inside and outside a large goose colony and in relation to annual variation in small mammal abundance. Information-theoretic model selection showed that (1) breeding density and fox abundance were 2–3 times higher inside the colony than they were outside the colony and (2) litter size, breeding density and annual variation in fox abundance in the colony tracked fluctuations in lemming abundance. The influence of lemming abundance on reproduction and abundance of arctic foxes outside the colony was inconclusive, largely because fox densities outside the colony were low, which made it difficult to detect such relationships. Lemming abundance was, thus, the main factor governing reproduction and abundance of arctic foxes in the colony, whereas seasonal influxes of geese and their eggs provided foxes with external subsidies that elevated breeding density and fox abundance above that which lemmings could support. This study highlights (1) the relative importance of migratory prey and other foods on the abundance and reproduction by local consumers and (2) how migratory animals function as vectors of nutrient transfer between distant ecosystems such as Arctic environments and wintering areas by geese thousands of kilometres to the south.     

The effect of snow cover on lemming population cycles in the Canadian High Arctic

Rising temperatures and changes in the precipitation regime will have a strong impact on the quality of the snow cover in the Arctic. A snow cover of good quality protecting lemmings from cold temperatures and predators is thought to be an important factor for maintaining the cyclic dynamic of their populations in the tundra. We examined if the characteristics of annual fluctuations (amplitude and shape of phases) in brown lemming (Lemmus trimucronatus) density could be determined by snow depth, snow density, sub-nivean temperature and persistence of snow. Using an 18-year time series of brown lemming abundance on Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic, we tested if snow variables could explain the residual variation between the observed lemming density and the one predicted by models where cyclicity had been accounted for. Our analysis provides support for the hypothesis that snow cover can affect the amplitude and possibly also the periodicity of lemming population cycles in the High Arctic. Summer abundance of brown lemmings was higher following winters with a deep snow cover and a low-density snow pack near the ground but was unaffected by the date of establishment or melting and duration of the snow cover. Two snow variables showed a temporal trend; mean winter snow depth tended to increase and date of establishment of the hiemal threshold occurred earlier over time. These temporal trends, which should be favourable to lemmings, may explain why healthy population cycles have apparently been maintained at our study site contrary to other Arctic sites.     

Functional and numerical responses of four lemming predators in high arctic Greenland

The high‐arctic tundra ecosystem has the world's simplest vertebrate predator–prey community, with only four predators preying upon one rodent species, the collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus). We document the functional and numerical responses of all the four predators in NE Greenland. Using these data, we assess the impact of predation on the dynamics of the collared lemming with a 4 yr cycle and >100‐fold difference between maximum and minimum densities. All predator species feed mostly (>90%) on lemmings when lemming density is >1 ha^?1, but the shapes of the predators’ responses vary greatly. The snowy owl (Nyctea scandiaca) is present and breeds only when lemming densities at snowmelt are >2 ha^?1, giving rise to a step‐like numerical response. The long‐tailed skua (Stercorarius longicaudus) has a type III functional response and shifts from alternate food (mainly berries and insects) to lemmings with increasing lemming density. The skua surpasses all the other predators in summer by its total response. The type III functional response of the Arctic fox (Alopex lagopus) starts to increase at much lower lemming densities than the responses of the avian predators, but it has only a weak numerical response. Finally, the stoat (Mustela erminea) is the most specialized predator and the only one with a clearly delayed numerical response. According to their specific functional and numerical responses, each predator plays a key role at some point of the lemming cycle, but only the stoat has the potential to drive the lemming cycle. Stoat predation is greatly reduced in the winter preceding the lemming peak, and it reaches a maximum in the winter preceding the lowest lemming summer density. Stoat predation appears to maintain low lemming densities for at least two successive years. Our study provides empirical support for the specialist predator hypothesis about small mammal population cycles.     

Breeding of waders (Charadrii) and Brent Geese Branta bernicla bernicla at Pronchishcheva Lake, northeastern Taimyr, Russia, in a peak and a decreasing lemming year

During summer 1991, lemmings occurred at high densities in Arctic tundra at Pronchishcheva Lake in the northeastern Taimyr Peninsula, whereas, in 1992, lemming densities were substantially lower and decreased further during the summer. In 1991, avian predators such as Snowy Owls Nyctea scandiaca, gulls and skuas bred well; Arctic foxes Alopex lagopus were rarely observed in the study area but bred in the immediate vicinity. In both years there was a late thaw, but this did not deter breeding by birds. The insect food supply for waders showed similar patterns of abundance in both years. In 1991, 73 nests of nine species of wader were found within a 14-km² study area, and Dark-bellied Brent Geese Branta bernicla bernicla nested in association with Snowy Owls. The overall density of wader nests was estimated to be 7 per km². Clutches disappeared at only two wader nests and no Brent Goose nests, and the Mayfield estimate of the daily probability of predation for waders was 0.0022. In contrast, the daily probability of predation was 0.20 in 1992, when there was a similar breeding density of waders. Arctic foxes were seen searching for food daily within the study area, and fox droppings were found associated with nests taken by predators. The predicted scenarios for peak and decreasing lemming years (the Roselaar-Summers hypothesis), i.e. low predation and high nest success in the peak year and high predation and low nest success in the decreasing year, therefore occurred.     

Comparing the genetic population structure of two species of arctic lemmings: more local differentiation in Lemmus trimucronatus than in Dicrostonyx groenlandicus

Collared and brown lemmings ( Dicrostonyx groenlandicus and Lemmus trimucronatus ) are two largely sympatric and ecologically comparable species of arctic microtine rodents, differing however in some respects which allow us to hypothesise differences in the genetic structure of their populations. Collared lemmings are particularly well adapted to life at high latitude, they occasionally emerge to the surface of the snow and may disperse over larger distances than brown lemmings – possibly even over snow and ice. This should result in more local differentiation among populations of brown lemmings than among populations of collared lemmings. We compared the genetic population structure between the two lemming species in a fragmented landscape with small islands in the central Canadian Arctic using four microsatellite loci and partial mitochondrial control region sequences. Both types of genetic markers showed higher differentiation ( F _ST values) among local populations for brown lemmings than for collared lemmings. We discuss to what extent the observed genetic differences may be explained by differences in dispersal rates in addition to differences in average effective population size.     

Does lemming winter grazing impact vegetation in the Canadian Arctic?

In low-productivity environments such as the tundra, it has been proposed that regular, multi-annual population cycles of lemmings could be driven by winter food depletion in years of peak abundance. If lemming population dynamics is controlled by food resources, we predict that (1) winter grazing should negatively impact the abundance of food plants, (2) this impact should be proportional to lemming density and (3) high lemming winter grazing pressure should result in reduced plant growth during the following summer. We tested these predictions on Bylot Island, Nunavut, Canada, where two species of lemmings are present: the brown (Lemmus trimucronatus) and collared lemming (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus). We installed 16 exclosures in their preferred wintering habitat (snowbeds) and annually sampled plant biomass inside and outside exclosures at snow melt and at peak growth during the summers of 2009–2012, covering a full population cycle. Winter grazing had no impact on total vascular plant or moss biomass at snow melt in all years. Among plant families, only Caryophyllaceae, which was uncommon, showed a decline. In moss taxa, a negative effect was found on Polytrichum in only 1 year out of three. Overall, plant regrowth during the subsequent summer showed annual variation and tended to be reduced in the 2 years of high lemming abundance. However, this could be a consequence of summer grazing. Overall, the impact of lemming winter grazing on plants was weak and short-lived, even in years of high lemming abundance. Therefore, our results are not consistent with the hypothesis that food depletion during winter was the cause of the lemming decline following peak abundance at our study site. Other factors may limit lemming populations and prevent them from reaching densities high enough to exhaust their food resources.     

Landscapes of fear or competition? Predation did not alter habitat choice by Arctic rodents

In systems where predation plays a key role in the dynamics of prey populations, such as in Arctic rodents, it is reasonable to assume that differential patterns of habitat use by prey species represent adaptive responses to spatial variation in predation. However, habitat selection by collared (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus) and brown (Lemmus trimucronatus) lemmings depends on intra- and inter-specific densities, and there has been little agreement on the respective influences of food abundance, predators, and competition for habitat on lemming dynamics. Thus, we investigated whether predation affected selection of sedge-meadow versus upland tundra by collared lemmings in the central Canadian Arctic. We first controlled for the effects of competition on lemming habitat selection. We then searched for an additional signal of predation by comparing habitat selection patterns between 12 control plots and one large grid where lemmings were protected from predators by fencing in 1996 and 1997, but not during 5 subsequent years when we monitored habitat use in the grid as well as in the control plots. Dicrostonyx used upland preferentially over meadows and was more numerous in 1996 and 2011 than in other sample years. Lemmus was also more abundant in 1996 than in subsequent years, but its abundance was too low in the exclosure to assess whether exclusion of predators influenced its habitat selection. Contrary to the effects of competition, predation had a negligible impact on the spatial dynamics of Dicrostonyx, at least during summer. These results suggest that any differences in predation risk between the two habitats have little direct influence on the temporal dynamics of Dicrostonyx even if induced through predator–prey cycles.     

The dilemma of where to nest: influence of spring snow cover,food proximity and predator abundance on reproductive success of an arctic-breeding migratory herbivore is dependent on nesting habitat choice

Pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus nest in two contrasting but commonly found habitats: steep cliffs and open tundra slopes. In Svalbard, we compared nest densities and nesting success in these two environments over ten breeding seasons to assess the impact of spring snow cover, food availability to nesting adults and arctic fox Vulpes lagopus (main terrestrial predator) abundance. In years with extensive spring snow cover, fewer geese at both colonies attempted to breed, possibly because snow cover limited pre-nesting feeding opportunities, leaving adults in poor breeding condition. Nesting success at the steep cliff colony was lower with extensive spring snow cover; such conditions force birds to commit to repeated and prolonged recess periods at far distant feeding areas, leaving nests open to predation. By contrast, nesting success at the open tundra slope was not affected by spring snow cover; even if birds were apparently in poor condition they could feed immediately adjacent to their nests and defend them from predators. Foxes were the main nest predator in the open tundra slopes but avian predators likely had a larger impact at the steep cliffs colony. Thus, the relative inaccessibility of the cliffs habitat may bring protection from foxes but also deprives geese from readily accessing feeding areas, with the best prospects for successful nesting in low spring snow cover years. Our findings indicate that spring snow cover, predator abundance and food proximity did not uniformly influence nesting success of this herbivore, and their effects were dependent on nesting habitat choice.     

The nature of lemming cycles on Wrangel: an island without small mustelids

Lemming cycles are a key process in the functioning of tundra ecosystems. Although it is agreed that trophic interactions are important in causing the cycles, the actual mechanism is disputed. Some researchers attribute a major role to predation by small mustelids such as stoats and least weasels. Here we present a 40-year time series of lemming dynamics from Wrangel Island and show statistically that lemmings do exhibit population cycles in the absence of small mustelids. The observed density fluctuations differed, however, from those observed elsewhere, with long cycles and possibly higher densities of lemmings during the low phase. These differences in the shape of the population cycles may be related to the unique species assemblage of Wrangel Island, where arctic foxes are the only year-round resident lemming predator, and to the high diversity of landscapes, microclimatic conditions, and plants on the island. Both spectral analysis and wavelet analysis show a change in period length from five?years in the 1970s to nearly eight?years in the 1990s and 2000s. This change in dynamics coincides with reports of dampening or fading out of lemming cycles that have been observed in several regions of the Arctic in recent decades. As in the other cases, the changed lemming dynamics on Wrangel Island may be related to ground icing in winter, which could delay peak years.     

Prolonging the arctic pulse: long-term exploitation of cached eggs by arctic foxes when lemmings are scarce

1. Many ecosystems are characterized by pulses of dramatically higher than normal levels of foods (pulsed resources) to which animals often respond by caching foods for future use. However, the extent to which animals use cached foods and how this varies in relation to fluctuations in other foods is poorly understood in most animals. 2. Arctic foxes Alopex lagopus (L.) cache thousands of eggs annually at large goose colonies where eggs are often superabundant during the nesting period by geese. We estimated the contribution of cached eggs to arctic fox diets in spring and autumn, when geese were not present in the study area, by comparing stable isotope ratios (delta(13)C and delta(15)N) of fox tissues with those of their foods using a multisource mixing model in Program IsoSource. 3. The contribution of cached eggs to arctic fox diets was inversely related to collared lemming Dicrostonyx groenlandicus (Traill) abundance; the contribution of cached eggs to overall fox diets increased from < 28% in years when collared lemmings were abundant to 30-74% in years when collared lemmings were scarce. 4. Further, arctic foxes used cached eggs well into the following spring (almost 1 year after eggs were acquired) - a pattern that differs from that of carnivores generally storing foods for only a few days before consumption. 5. This study showed that long-term use of eggs that were cached when geese were superabundant at the colony in summer varied with fluctuations in collared lemming abundance (a key component in arctic fox diets throughout most of their range) and suggests that cached eggs functioned as a buffer when collared lemmings were scarce.     

Are goose nesting success and lemming cycles linked? Interplay between nest density and predators

The suggested link between lemming cycles and reproductive success of arctic birds is caused by potential effects of varying predation pressure (the Alternative Prey Hypothesis, APH) and protective association with birds of prey (the Nesting Association Hypothesis, NAH). We used data collected over two complete lemming cycles to investigate how fluctuations in lemming density were associated with nesting success of greater snow geese ( Anser caerulescens atlanticus ) in the Canadian High Arctic. We tested predictions of the APH and NAH for geese breeding at low and high densities. Goose nesting success varied from 22% to 91% between years and the main egg predator was the arctic fox ( Alopex lagopus ). Nesting associations with snowy owls ( Nyctea scandiaca ) were observed but only during peak lemming years for geese nesting at low density. Goose nesting success declined as distance from owls increased and reached a plateau at 550 m. Artificial nest experiments indicated that owls can exclude predators from the vicinity of their nests and thus reduce goose egg predation rate. Annual nest failure rate was negatively associated with rodent abundance and was generally highest in low lemming years. This relationship was present even after excluding goose nests under the protective influence of owls. However, nest failure was inversely density-dependent at high breeding density. Thus, annual variations in nest density influenced the synchrony between lemming cycles and oscillations in nesting success. Our results suggest that APH is the main mechanism linking lemming cycles and goose nesting success and that nesting associations during peak lemming years (NAH) can enhance this positive link at the local level. The study also shows that breeding strategies used by birds (the alternative prey) could affect the synchrony between oscillations in avian reproductive success and rodent cycles.     

Inter‐annual variation in the breeding chronology of arctic shorebirds: effects of weather,snow melt and predators

Arctic breeding shorebirds travel thousands of kilometres between their wintering and breeding grounds, yet the period over which they arrive and begin to initiate nests spans only several weeks. We investigated the role of local conditions such as weather, snow cover and predator abundance on the timing of arrival and breeding for shorebirds at four sites in the eastern Canadian arctic. Over 11 years, we monitored the arrival of 12 species and found 821 nests. Weather was highly variable over the course of this study, and the date of 50% snow cover varied by up to three weeks between years. In contrast, timing of arrival varied by one week or less at our sites, and was not well predicted by local conditions such as temperature, wind or snow melt. Timing of breeding was related to the date of 50% snow melt, with later snow melt resulting in delayed breeding. Higher predator abundance resulted in earlier nesting than would be predicted by snow cover alone. We hypothesise that when predation risk is high, the value of potential re‐nesting exceeds the energetic risks of early breeding. Synchrony of breeding was significantly higher in late breeding years suggesting a relatively fixed date for the termination of nest initiation, after which nesting is no longer profitable.     

Predator‐mediated interactions between preferred,alternative and incidental prey in the arctic tundra

Apparent competition between prey is hypothesized to occur more frequently in environments with low densities of preferred prey, where predators are forced to forage for multiple prey items. In the arctic tundra, numerical and functional responses of predators to preferred prey (lemmings) affect the predation pressure on alternative prey (goose eggs) and predators aggregate in areas of high alternative prey density. Therefore, we hypothesized that predation risk on incidental prey (shorebird eggs) would increase in patches of high goose nest density when lemmings were scarce. To test this hypothesis, we measured predation risk on artificial shorebird nests in quadrats varying in goose nest density on Bylot Island (Nunavut, Canada) across three summers with variable lemming abundance. Predation risk on artificial shorebird nests was positively related to goose nest density, and this relationship was strongest at low lemming abundance when predation risk increased by 600% as goose nest density increased from 0 to 12 nests ha^?1. Camera monitoring showed that activity of arctic foxes, the most important predator, increased with goose nest density. Our data support our incidental prey hypothesis; when preferred prey decrease in abundance, predator mediated apparent competition via aggregative response occurs between the alternative and incidental prey items.     

Spatio-temporal patterns of ptarmigan occupancy relative to shrub cover in the Arctic

Rock and willow ptarmigan are abundant herbivores that require shrub habitats in arctic and alpine areas. Shrub expansion is likely to increase winter habitat availability for ptarmigan, which in turn influence shrub architecture and growth through browsing. Despite their ecological role in the Arctic, the distribution and movement patterns of ptarmigan are not well known, particularly in northern Alaska where shrub expansion is occurring. We used multi-season occupancy models to test whether ptarmigan occupancy varied within and among years, and the degree to which colonization and extinction probabilities were related to shrub cover and latitude. Aerial surveys were conducted from March to May in 2011 and April to May 2012 in a 21,230 km² area in northeastern Alaska. In areas with at least 30 % shrub cover, the probability of colonization by ptarmigan was >0.90, indicating that moderate to extensive patches of shrubs (typically associated with riparian areas) had a high probability of becoming occupied by ptarmigan. Occupancy increased throughout the spring in both years, providing evidence that ptarmigan migrated from southern wintering areas to breeding areas north of the Brooks Range. Occupancy was higher in the moderate snow year than the high snow year, and this was likely due to higher shrub cover in the moderate snow year. Ptarmigan distribution and migration in the Arctic are linked to expanding shrub communities on a wide geographic scale, and these relationships may be shaping ptarmigan population dynamics, as well as rates and patterns of shrub expansion.