Uphill shifts in distribution of butterflies in the Czech Republic: effects of changing climate detected on a regional scale

Aim To assess whether altitude changes in the distribution of butterflies during the second half of the 20th century are consistent with climate warming scenarios. Location The Czech Republic. Methods Distributional data were taken from a recent butterfly distribution atlas, which maps all Czech butterflies using a grid of 10′ longitude to 6′ latitude, equivalent to about 11.1 × 12 km. Cell altitude was used as an independent variable, and altitudinal ranges of individual species (less migrants, extinct species, recent arrivals and extremely rare species) in 1950–80 vs. 1995–2001 and in 1950–80, 1981–94, 1995–2001 were compared using U‐tests and linear regressions. Results Of 117 (U‐tests) and 119 (regressions) species, we found significant uphill increases in 15 and 12 species, respectively. The two groups were nested; none (U‐test) and one (regression) species showed a significant altitudinal decrease. Binomial tests of frequencies of signs of the U‐tests and regression coefficients, including nonsignificant ones, also showed that the increases prevailed. The mean and median of the significant shifts were 60 and 90 m, respectively, and the maximum shift per species was 148 m. The recording effort in individual time periods was not biased with respect to altitude. Main conclusion Altitude shifts in the distribution of Czech butterflies are already detectable on the coarse scales of standard distribution maps. The increasing species do not show any consistent pattern in habitat affiliations, conservation status and mountain vs. nonmountain distribution, which renders climatic explanation as the most likely cause of the distributional shifts.     

Monitoring of butterflies in semi-natural grasslands: diurnal variation and weather effects

The butterfly fauna was monitored in six semi-natural grasslands in southeastern Sweden. The aim was to evaluate monitoring criteria for wind, sunshine, temperature and time of day for butterfly species richness and abundances when using the line transect method. A total of 30,111 butterflies belonging to 46 species were recorded. Data from this study suggests somewhat stricter criteria for temperature and sunshine than stated in the widely used “Pollards walk”. A sharp decline in butterfly numbers were detected at temperatures below 19°C if the proportion of sunshine of the transect walk was below 80–85%. No effect of wind speed, up to five on the Beaufort scale, on observed numbers of species or individuals were found. Several butterfly species showed well-defined diurnal rythms of flight activity, and the results indicated that transect walks can be performed between −4.5 and +4 h from the time when the sun reached its highest point. The results of this study can be used to adjust general criteria in national monitoring and also for detailed regional and local monitoring where it may be important to adjust for diurnal rhythm and weather related bias.     

Effect of regional climate warming on the phenology of butterflies in boreal forests in Manitoba, Canada

We examined the effect of regional climate warming on the phenology of butterfly species in boreal forest ecosystems in Manitoba, Canada. For the period 1971-2004, the mean monthly temperatures in January, September, and December increased significantly, as did the mean temperatures for several concurrent monthly periods. The mean annual temperature increased ≈ 0.05°C/yr over the study period. The annual number of frost-free days and degree-day accumulations increased as well. We measured the response of 19 common butterfly species to these temperature changes with the date of first appearance, week of peak abundance, and the length of flight period over the 33-yr period of 1972-2004. Although adult butterfly response was variable for spring and summer months, 13 of 19 species showed a significant (P < 0.05) increase in flight period extending longer into the autumn. Flight period extensions increased by 31.5 ± 13.9 (SD) d over the study period for 13 butterfly species significantly affected by the warming trend. The early autumn and winter months warmed significantly, and butterflies seem to be responding to this warming trend with a change in the length of certain life stages. Two species, Junonia coenia and Euphydryas phaeton, increased their northerly ranges by ≈ 150 and 70 km, respectively. Warmer autumns and winters may be providing opportunities for range extensions of more southerly butterfly species held at bay by past climatic conditions.     

Effects of weather and climate on the dynamics of animal population time series

Weather is one of the most basic factors impacting animal populations, but the typical strength of such impacts on population dynamics is unknown. We incorporate weather and climate index data into analysis of 492 time series of mammals, birds and insects from the global population dynamics database. A conundrum is that a multitude of weather data may a priori be considered potentially important and hence present a risk of statistical over-fitting. We find that model selection or averaging alone could spuriously indicate that weather provides strong improvements to short-term population prediction accuracy. However, a block randomization test reveals that most improvements result from over-fitting. Weather and climate variables do, in general, improve predictions, but improvements were barely detectable despite the large number of datasets considered. Climate indices such as North Atlantic Oscillation are not better predictors of population change than local weather variables. Insect time series are typically less predictable than bird or mammal time series, although all taxonomic classes display low predictability. Our results are in line with the view that population dynamics is often too complex to allow resolving mechanisms from time series, but we argue that time series analysis can still be useful for estimating net environmental effects.     

Impact of weather and climate variation on Hoopoe reproductive ecology and population growth

Preserving peripheral populations is a key conservation issue because of the adaptive potential to environmental change they provide for the species as a whole. Yet, peripheral populations are often small and isolated, i.e. more vulnerable to stochastic events and prone to extinction. We studied a peripheral population of Hoopoe (Upupa epops), a rare insectivorous farmland bird, in the Swiss Alps. We first investigated the effect of weather variation on food provisioning to chicks by Hoopoe parents. Second, while accounting for density-dependence, we tested the extent to which breeding success is governed by weather circumstances and assessed the possible consequences of climate variation on population growth. Provisioning rate and provisioned prey biomass were negatively affected by adverse weather (cool, rainy days), were higher in males and also increased with brood size. Much smaller proportions of molecrickets (Gryllotalpa gryllotalpa; the most profitable prey locally, constituting 93% of chicks’ food biomass) were provisioned on days with adverse weather, irrespective of brood size. Rainfall prior to hatching and during the first days of chick life had a negative impact on their survival, and there was a positive effect of temperature on chick survival just before fledging. Reproductive output was negatively affected by precipitation during the hatching period, but was enhanced by warm temperature just before hatching and in the last days before fledging. Our model showed that the variable reproductive output has a strong impact on the population growth: a succession of adverse, rainy springs would cause a rapid decline of the population. This case study confirms that conservation efforts may be obliterated if risks linked to increasing climate variability are not properly accounted for in the management of small peripheral populations.     

North American Brant: effects of changes in habitat and climate on population dynamics

We describe the importance of key habitats used by four nesting populations of nearctic brant (Branta bernicla) and discuss the potential relationship between changes in these habitats and population dynamics of brant. Nearctic brant, in contrast to most geese, rely on marine habitats and native intertidal plants during the non‐breeding season, particularly the seagrass, Zostera, and the macroalgae, Ulva. Atlantic and Eastern High Arctic brant have experienced the greatest degradation of their winter habitats (northeastern United States and Ireland, respectively) and have also shown the most plasticity in feeding behavior. Black and Western High Arctic brant of the Pacific Flyway are the most dependent on Zostera, and are undergoing a shift in winter distribution that is likely related to climate change and its associated effects on Zostera dynamics. Variation in breeding propensity of Black Brant associated with winter location and climate strongly suggests that food abundance on the wintering grounds directly affects reproductive performance in these geese. In summer, salt marshes, especially those containing Carex and Puccinellia, are key habitats for raising young, while lake shorelines with fine freshwater grasses and sedges are important for molting birds. Availability and abundance of salt marshes has a direct effect on growth and recruitment of goslings and ultimately, plays an important role in regulating size of local brant populations.     

Phenotypic plasticity, seasonal climate and the population biology of Bicyclus butterflies (Satyridae) in Malawi

Abstract.

• 1 Seasonal polyphenism is studied in a community of five African butterflies of the genus Bicyclus at the transition between a wet and a dry season from May to July.
• 2 Butterflies characterized by large eyespots and, especially in B.sufitza (Hewitson), a pale band (the wet season form) are replaced over this period by butterflies lacking conspicuous wing markings (the dry season form, dsf). The latter butterflies also tend to be larger, but more variable in size. Butterflies of an intermediate phenotype are recruited over a comparatively short interim period.
• 3 This turnover coincides with a period of declining temperature and drying of the habitat, including the grasses on which larvae feed. Butterflies are progressively more likely to rest on brown leaf litter rather than on green herbage.
• 4 A relationship with temperature is supported by laboratory experiments with B.saJitza and B.anynana (Butler) showing that increasingly extreme dsf butterflies develop with decreasing rearing temperature in the final larval instar.
• 5 Some differences in behaviour and activity were observed between the seasonal forms. Butterflies of the dsf develop ovarian dormancy and fat bodies. They can survive to reproduce at the beginning of the rains in November.
• 6 Capture-recapture experiments showed that the adult butterflies have a comparatively long life expectancy and are quite sedentary.
• 7 The results are discussed in relation to a hypothesis linking the polyphenism to seasonal changes in resting background and selection for crypsis.

     

Global climate change and reindeer: effects of winter weather on the autumn weight and growth of calves

Reindeer/caribou (Rangifer tarandus), which constitute a biological resource of vital importance for the physical and cultural survival of Arctic residents, and inhabit extremely seasonal environments, have received little attention in the global change debate. We investigated how body weight and growth rate of reindeer calves were affected by large-scale climatic variability [measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) winter index] and density in one population in central Norway. Body weights of calves in summer and early winter, as well as their growth rate (summer to early winter), were significantly influenced by density and the NAO index when cohorts were in utero. Males were heavier and had higher absolute growth than females, but there was no evidence that preweaning condition of male and female calves were influenced differently by the NAO winter index. Increasing NAO index had a negative effect on calves' body weight and growth rate. Increasing density significantly reduced body weight and growth rate of calves, and accentuated the effect of the NAO winter index. Winters with a higher NAO index are thus severe for reindeer calves in this area and their effects are associated with nutritional stress experienced by the dams during pregnancy or immediately after calving. Moreover, increased density may enhance intra-specific competition and limits food available at the individual level within cohorts. We conclude that if the current pattern of global warming continues, with greater change occurring in northern latitudes and during winter as is predicted, reduced body weight of reindeer calves may be a consequence in areas where winters with a high NAO index are severe. This will likely have an effect on the livelihood of many northern indigenous peoples, both economically and culturally.     

Beyond corals and fish: the effects of climate change on noncoral benthic invertebrates of tropical reefs

Climate change is threatening tropical reefs across the world, with most scientists agreeing that the current changes in climate conditions are occurring at a much faster rate than in the past and are potentially beyond the capacity of reefs to adapt and recover. Current research in tropical ecosystems focuses largely on corals and fishes, although other benthic marine invertebrates provide crucial services to reef systems, with roles in nutrient cycling, water quality regulation, and herbivory. We review available information on the effects of environmental conditions associated with climate change on noncoral tropical benthic invertebrates, including inferences from modern and fossil records. Increasing sea surface temperatures may decrease survivorship and increase the developmental rate, as well as alter the timing of gonad development, spawning, and food availability. The broad latitudinal distribution and associated temperature ranges of several pantropical taxa suggest that some reef communities may have an in‐built adaptive capacity. Tropical benthic invertebrates will also show species‐specific sublethal and lethal responses to sea‐level rise, ocean acidification, physical disturbance, runoff, turbidity, sedimentation, and changes in ocean circulation. In order to accurately predict a species' response to these stressors, we must consider the magnitude and duration of exposure to each stressor, as well as the physiology, mobility, and habitat requirements of the species. Stressors will not act independently, and many organisms will be exposed to multiple stressors concurrently, including anthropogenic stressors. Environmental changes associated with climate change are linked to larger ecological processes, including changes in larval dispersal and recruitment success, shifts in community structure and range extensions, and the establishment and spread of invasive species. Loss of some species will trigger economic losses and negative effects on ecosystem function. Our review is intended to create a framework with which to predict the vulnerability of benthic invertebrates to the stressors associated with climate change, as well as their adaptive capacity. We anticipate that this review will assist scientists, managers, and policy‐makers to better develop and implement regional research and management strategies, based on observed and predicted changes in environmental conditions.     

Different effects of climate change on the population dynamics of insects

Climate change affects the pattern of population dynamics of insects in different ways. Global warming not only leads to greater over-winter survival, earlier appearance in spring, an increase in the number of generations in a year, lengthening of the reproductive season, etc., but also affects their biotic associations as a result of changes in interspecific interactions. Changes in the density of insects in response to unusually hot summers provide us with useful indications of the potential effects of global warming. Different insect guilds respond differently to hot summers, which sometimes result in an increase in density and sometimes a decrease. These effects may occur immediately or be delayed by 1 or 2 years. As long as the regime remains unchanged, the affected population can recover sooner or later. Even a single-year change in climate, however, if it allows predators to outbreak, may be strong enough to cause a regime shift. Most insects are susceptible to heat stress between 28 and 32 °C, global warming could have a more profound impact on the population dynamics and biodiversity of arthropods than has previously been predicted.     

Adult emergence phenology in checkerspot butterflies: the effects of macroclimate,topoclimate, and population history

The prediction of adult emergence times in insect populations can be greatly complicated by microclimatic gradients, especially in circumstances where distributions of juveniles along those gradients vary from year to year. To investigate adult emergence patterns in topographically heterogeneous habitats, we built a model of postdiapause development of the Bay checkerspot butterfly, Euphydryas editha bayensis. The model uses slope-specific insolation as the rate-controlling variable, and accounts for both solar exposure of the habitat and cloud cover. Instar-specific larval mass gains per unit of insolation were determined from mark-recapture experiments. A small correction for daily low temperatures was used to calibrate the model to five years of field data on larval mass. The model predicted mean mass of 90% of larval samples within 4 clear days over a 70–120 day growing season. The magnitude of spatial variation in emergence times across habitat slopes is greater than annual variation in emergence times due to yearly weather conditions. Historical variation (yearly shifts in larval distributions across slopes) is an important determinant of mean population emergence dates. All of these factors need to be considered in understanding adult emergence phenology in this butterfly and in other insects inhabiting heterogeneous thermal environments. Such an understanding can be useful in managing insect populations for both pest control and conservation.     

Disentangling effects of uncertainties on population projections: climate change impact on an epixylic bryophyte

Assessment of future ecosystem risks should account for the relevant uncertainty sources. This means accounting for the joint effects of climate variables and using modelling techniques that allow proper treatment of uncertainties. We investigate the influence of three of the IPCC's scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions (special report on emission scenarios (SRES)) on projections of the future abundance of a bryophyte model species. We also compare the relative importance of uncertainty sources on the population projections. The whole chain global climate model (GCM)-regional climate model-population dynamics model is addressed. The uncertainty depends on both natural- and model-related sources, in particular on GCM uncertainty. Ignoring the uncertainties gives an unwarranted impression of confidence in the results. The most likely population development of the bryophyte Buxbaumia viridis towards the end of this century is negative: even with a low-emission scenario, there is more than a 65 per cent risk for the population to be halved. The conclusion of a population decline is valid for all SRES scenarios investigated. Uncertainties are no longer an obstacle, but a mandatory aspect to include in the viability analysis of populations.     

Mood effects of weather conditions of the Zagreb population, Croatia

The level of information on biometeorologic reports and mood effects of weather conditions on the Zagreb population were assessed in a sample of 782 subjects. Only 103 (13.2%) study subjects had not been informed on biometeorologic reports. Mood effects of weather conditions were reported by more than 76% of study subjects, 18.3% of them reporting meteorosensitivity. Meteorosensitivity showed a female predominance, and increased with age and level of education. 88% of chronic patients reported discomforts caused by changes in atmospheric conditions. Apathy and sleepiness were the most common mood changes associated with weather changes, whereas humid weather was indicated as a weather type that caused most discomforts in study subjects.     

Potential decoupling of trends in distribution area and population size of species with climate change

Global climates are changing rapidly and biological responses are becoming increasingly apparent. Here, we use empirical abundance patterns across an altitudinal gradient and predicted altitudinal range shifts to estimate change in total population size relative to distribution area in response to climate warming. Adopting this approach we predict that, for nine out of 12 species of regionally endemic birds, total population size will decline more rapidly than distribution area with increasing temperature. Two species showed comparable loss and one species exhibited a slower decline in population size with change in distribution area. Population size change relative to distribution area was greatest for those species that occurred at highest density in the middle of the gradient. The disproportional loss in population size reported here suggests that extinction risk associated with climate change can be more severe than that expected from decline in distribution area alone. Therefore, if we are to make accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change on the conservation status of individual species, it is crucial that we consider the spatial patterns of abundance within the distribution and not just the overall range of the species.     

Distribution-wide effects of climate on population densities of a declining migratory landbird

1. Increases in global temperatures have created concern about effects of climatic variability on populations, and climate has been shown to affect population dynamics in an increasing number of species. Testing for effects of climate on population densities across a species' distribution allows for elucidation of effects of climate that would not be apparent at smaller spatial scales. 2. Using autoregressive population models, we tested for effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on annual population densities of a North American migratory landbird, the yellow-billed cuckoo Coccyzus americanus, across the species' breeding distribution over a 37-year period (1966-2002). 3. Our results indicate that both the NAO and ENSO have affected population densities of C. americanus across much of the species' breeding range, with the strongest effects of climate in regions in which these climate systems have the strongest effects on local temperatures. Analyses also indicate that the strength of the effect of local temperatures on C. americanus populations was predictive of long-term population decline, with populations that were more negatively affected by warm temperatures experiencing steeper declines. 4. Results of this study highlight the importance of distribution-wide analyses of climatic effects and demonstrate that increases in global temperatures have the potential to lead to additional population declines.     

Linguistic dimensions of weather and climate perception

The purpose of this research was to explore the latent dimensions that underlie people’s use of adjectives that can describe weather and climate conditions. A sample of 1,011 university undergraduate students residing the southeastern United States evaluated the weather and climate of that region using 143 English language adjectives. Data were collected over a two-year period during various weather and seasonally related climatic conditions. Polychoric correlations among the adjective ratings were calculated; the matrix of correlations was factor analyzed. Twelve underlying factors related to weather and climate perceptions were observed: 1. threatening, severe, violent, 2. dismal, drab, dark, 3. cold and wintry, 4. hot and summery, 5. tranquil and pleasant, 6. stormy and wet, 7. bright and clear, 8. blowing and blustery, 9. damp and moist, 10. cloudy and cool, 11. predictable and unchanging, and 12. hazy and dusty. A second-order factor analysis revealed two factors pertaining to weather valence: 1. bad or extreme and 2. good or routine conditions. The study results were noteworthy in revealing some of the basic linguistic dimensions along which people perceive and experience weather and climate at the current time in the southeastern United States. The study also represents the use of a new technique for biometeorologists to use in assessing climate perceptions in culturally and climatically diverse regions.     

Nice weather for bettongs: using weather events,not climate means,in species distribution models

Current applications of species distribution models (SDM) are typically static, in that they are based on correlations between where a species has been observed (ignoring the date of the observation) and environmental features, such as long‐term climate means, that are assumed to be constant for each site. Because of this SDMs do not account for temporal variation in the distribution of suitable habitat across the range of a species. Here, we demonstrate the temporal variability in the potential geographic distributions of an endangered marsupial, the northern bettong Bettongia tropica as a case study. Models of the species distribution using temporally matched observations of the species with weather data (including extreme weather events) at the time of species observations, were better able to define habitat suitability, identify range edges and uncover competitive interactions than models based on static long‐term climate means. Droughts and variable temperature are implicated in low densities and local extinctions of northern bettong populations close to range edges. Further, we show how variable weather can influence the results of competition with the common rufous bettong Aepyprymnus rufescens. Because traditional SDMs do not account for temporal variability of suitable habitat, static SDMs may underestimate the impacts of climate change particularly as the incidence of extreme weather events is likely to rise.