Changes in terrestrial carbon storage in the United States. 1: The roles of agriculture and forestry

• 1 Changes in the areas of croplands and pastures, and rates of wood harvest in seven regions of the United States, including Alaska, were derived from historical statistics for the period 1700–1990. These rates of land‐use change were used in a cohort model, together with equations defining the changes in live vegetation, slash, wood products and soil that follow a change in land use, to calculate the annual flux of carbon to the atmosphere from changes in land use.
• 2 The calculated flux increased from less than 10 TgC/yr in 1700 to a maximum of about 400 TgC/yr around 1880 and then decreased to approximately zero by 1950. The total flux for the 290‐year period was a release of 32.6 PgC. The area of forests and woodlands declined by 42% (160 × 10⁶ ha), releasing 29 PgC, or 90% of the total flux. Cultivation of soils accounted for about 25% of the carbon loss. Between 1950 and 1990 the annual flux of carbon was approximately zero, although eastern forests were accumulating carbon.
• 3 When the effects of fire and fire exclusion (reported in a companion paper) were added to this analysis of land‐use change, the uptake of carbon calculated for forests was similar in magnitude to the uptake measured in forest inventories, suggesting that past harvests account for a significant fraction of the observed carbon sink in forests.
• 4 Changes in the management of croplands between 1965 and 1990 may have led to an additional accumulation of carbon, not included in the 32.6 PgC release, but even with this additional non‐forest sink, the calculated accumulation of carbon in the United States was an order of magnitude smaller than the North American carbon sink inferred recently from atmospheric data and models.

     

Emissions of carbon from forestry and land-use change in tropical Asia

The net emissions of carbon from forestry and changes in land use in south and southeast Asia were calculated here with a book-keeping model that used rates of land-use change and associated per hectare changes in vegetation and soil to calculate changes in the amount of carbon held in terrestrial ecosystems and wood products. The total release of carbon to the atmosphere over the period 1850–1995 was 43.5 PgC. The clearing of forests for permanent croplands released 33.5 PgC, about 75% of the total. The reduction of biomass in the remaining forests, as a result of shifting cultivation, logging, fuelwood extraction, and associated regrowth, was responsible for a net loss of 11.5 PgC, and the establishment of plantations withdrew from the atmosphere 1.5 PgC, most of it since 1980. Based on comparisons with other estimates, the uncertainty of this long-term flux is estimated to be within ±30%. Reducing this uncertainty will be difficult because of the difficulty of documenting the biomass of forests in existence >40 years ago. For the 15-y period 1981–1995, annual emissions averaged 1.07 PgC y^–1, about 50% higher than reported for the 1980s in an earlier study. The uncertainty of recent emissions is probably within ± 50% but could be reduced significantly with systematic use of satellite data on changes in forest area. In tropical Asia, the emissions of carbon from land-use change in the 1980s accounted for approximately 75% of the region’s total carbon emissions. Since 1990 rates of deforestation and their associated emissions have declined, while emissions of carbon from combustion of fossil fuels have increased. The net effect has been a reduction in emissions of CO₂ from this region since 1990.     

The net carbon flux due to deforestation and forest re-growth in the Brazilian Amazon: analysis using a process-based model

We developed a process‐based model of forest growth, carbon cycling and land‐cover dynamics named CARLUC (for CARbon and Land‐Use Change) to estimate the size of terrestrial carbon pools in terra firme (nonflooded) forests across the Brazilian Legal Amazon and the net flux of carbon resulting from forest disturbance and forest recovery from disturbance. Our goal in building the model was to construct a relatively simple ecosystem model that would respond to soil and climatic heterogeneity that allows us to study the impact of Amazonian deforestation, selective logging and accidental fire on the global carbon cycle. This paper focuses on the net flux caused by deforestation and forest re‐growth over the period from 1970 to 1998. We calculate that the net flux to the atmosphere during this period reached a maximum of ～0.35 PgC yr^?1 (1 PgC= 1 × 10¹⁵ gC) in 1990, with a cumulative release of ～7 PgC from 1970 to 1998. The net flux is higher than predicted by an earlier study ( Houghton et al., 2000 ) by a total of 1 PgC over the period 1989–1998 mainly because CARLUC predicts relatively high mature forest carbon storage compared with the datasets used in the earlier study. Incorporating the dynamics of litter and soil carbon pools into the model increases the cumulative net flux by～1 PgC from 1970 to 1998, while different assumptions about land‐cover dynamics only caused small changes. The uncertainty of the net flux, calculated with a Monte‐Carlo approach, is roughly 35% of the mean value (1 SD).     

CO2 stabilization,climate change and the terrestrial carbon sink

A nonequilibrium, dynamic, global vegetation model, Hybrid v4.1, with a subdaily timestep, was driven by increasing CO₂ and transient climate output from the UK Hadley Centre GCM (HadCM2) with simulated daily and interannual variability. Three IPCC emission scenarios were used: (i) IS92a, giving 790 ppm CO₂ by 2100, (ii) CO₂ stabilization at 750 ppm by 2225, and (iii) CO₂ stabilization at 550 ppm by 2150. Land use and future N deposition were not included. In the IS92a scenario, boreal and tropical lands warmed 4.5 °C by 2100 with rainfall decreased in parts of the tropics, where temperatures increased over 6 °C in some years and vapour pressure deficits (VPD) doubled. Stabilization at 750 ppm CO₂ delayed these changes by about 100 years while stabilization at 550 ppm limited the rise in global land surface temperature to 2.5 °C and lessened the appearance of relatively hot, dry areas in the tropics. Present‐day global predictions were 645 PgC in vegetation, 1190 PgC in soils, a mean carbon residence time of 40 years, NPP 47 PgC y^?1 and NEP (the terrestrial sink) about 1 PgC y^?1, distributed at both high and tropical latitudes. With IS92a emissions, the high latitude sink increased to the year 2100, as forest NPP accelerated and forest vegetation carbon stocks increased. The tropics became a source of CO₂ as forest dieback occurred in relatively hot, dry areas in 2060–2080. High VPDs and temperatures reduced NPP in tropical forests, primarily by reducing stomatal conductance and increasing maintenance respiration. Global NEP peaked at 3–4 PgC y^?1 in 2020–2050 and then decreased abruptly to near zero by 2100 as the tropical source offset the high‐latitude sink. The pattern of change in NEP was similar with CO₂ stabilization at 750 ppm, but was delayed by about 100 years and with a less abrupt collapse in global NEP. CO₂ stabilization at 550 ppm prevented sustained tropical forest dieback and enabled recovery to occur in favourable years, while maintaining a similar time course of global NEP as occurred with 750 ppm stabilization. By lessening dieback, stabilization increased the fraction of carbon emissions taken up by the land. Comparable studies and other evidence are discussed: climate‐induced tropical forest dieback is considered a plausible risk of following an unmitigated emissions scenario.     

Drought-induced increase in tree mortality and corresponding decrease in the carbon sink capacity of Canada's boreal forests from 1970 to 2020

Canada's boreal forests, which occupy approximately 30% of boreal forests worldwide, play an important role in the global carbon budget. However, there is little quantitative information available regarding the spatiotemporal changes in the drought-induced tree mortality of Canada's boreal forests overall and their associated impacts on biomass carbon dynamics. Here, we develop spatiotemporally explicit estimates of drought-induced tree mortality and corresponding biomass carbon sink capacity changes in Canada's boreal forests from 1970 to 2020. We show that the average annual tree mortality rate is approximately 2.7%. Approximately 43% of Canada's boreal forests have experienced significantly increasing tree mortality trends (71% of which are located in the western region of the country), and these trends have accelerated since 2002. This increase in tree mortality has resulted in significant biomass carbon losses at an approximate rate of 1.51 ± 0.29 MgC ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ (95% confidence interval) with an approximate total loss of 0.46 ± 0.09 PgC year⁻¹ (95% confidence interval). Under the drought condition increases predicted for this century, the capacity of Canada's boreal forests to act as a carbon sink will be further reduced, potentially leading to a significant positive climate feedback effect.     

Land use effects on terrestrial carbon sources and sinks

Current and past land use practices are critical in determining the distribution and sizeof global terrestrial carbon (C) sources and sinks. Although fossil fuel emissions dominate the an-thropogenic perturbation of the global C cycle, land use still drives the largest portion of anthropo-genic emissions in a number of tropical regions of Asia. The size of the emission flux owing to landuse change is still the biggest uncertainty in the global C budget. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported a flux term of 1.7 PgC·a~(-1) for 1990-1995 but more recent es-timates suggest the magnitude of this source may be only of 0.96 PgC·a~(-1) for the 1990s. In add-ition, current and past land use practices are now thought to contribute to a large degree to the northern hemisphere terrestrial sink, and are the dominant driver for some regional sinks. However,mechanisms other than land use change need to be invoked in order to explain the inferred C sink in the tropics. Potential candidates are the carbon dioxide (CO_2) fertilization and climate change;fertilization due to nitrogen (N) deposition is believed to be small or nil. Although the potential formanaging C sinks is limited, improved land use management and new land uses such as refores-tation and biomass fuel cropping, can further enhance current terrestrial C sinks. Best manage-ment practices in agriculture alone could sequester 0.4-0.8 PgC per year in soils if implemented globally. New methodologies to ensure verification and permanency of C sequestration need to be developed.     

Land use effects on terrestrial carbon sources and sinks

Current and past land use practices are critical in determining the distribution and size of global terrestrial carbon (C) sources and sinks. Althoughfossil fuel emissions dominate the anthropogenic perturbation of the global C cycle, land use still drives the largest portion of anthropogenic emissions in a number of tropical regions of Asia. The size of the emission flux owing to land use change is still the biggest uncertainty in the global C budget. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported a flux term of 1.7 PgC@a-1 for 1990-1995 but more recent estimates suggest the magnitude of this source may be only of 0.96 PgC@a-1 for the 1990s. In addition, current and past land use practices are now thought to contribute to a large degree to the northern hemisphere terrestrial sink, and are the dominant driver for some regional sinks. However, mechanisms other than land use change need to be invoked in order to explain the inferred C sink in the tropics. Potential candidates are the carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization and climate change; fertilization due to nitrogen (N) deposition is believed to be small or nil. Although the potential for managing C sinks is limited, improved land use management and new land uses such as reforestation and biomass fuel cropping, can further enhance current terrestrial C sinks. Best management practices in agriculture alone could sequester 0.4-0.8 PgC per year in soils if implemented globally. New methodologies to ensure verification and permanency of C sequestration need to be developed.     

Higher than expected CO2 fertilization inferred from leaf to global observations

Several lines of evidence point to an increase in the activity of the terrestrial biosphere over recent decades, impacting the global net land carbon sink (NLS) and its control on the growth of atmospheric carbon dioxide (c_a). Global terrestrial gross primary production (GPP)—the rate of carbon fixation by photosynthesis—is estimated to have risen by (31 ± 5)% since 1900, but the relative contributions of different putative drivers to this increase are not well known. Here we identify the rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration as the dominant driver. We reconcile leaf‐level and global atmospheric constraints on trends in modeled biospheric activity to reveal a global CO₂ fertilization effect on photosynthesis of 30% since 1900, or 47% for a doubling of c_a above the pre‐industrial level. Our historic value is nearly twice as high as current estimates (17 ± 4)% that do not use the full range of available constraints. Consequently, under a future low‐emission scenario, we project a land carbon sink (174 PgC, 2006–2099) that is 57 PgC larger than if a lower CO₂ fertilization effect comparable with current estimates is assumed. These findings suggest a larger beneficial role of the land carbon sink in modulating future excess anthropogenic CO₂ consistent with the target of the Paris Agreement to stay below 2°C warming, and underscore the importance of preserving terrestrial carbon sinks.     

土地利用变化对区域碳源汇的影响研究进展

土地利用变化对陆地生态系统碳循环有着重要的影响,既可能成为碳源,也可能是碳汇。在国内外相关研究的基础上,综述了土地利用变化对全球及区域尺度上森林、草地和农业生态系统碳循环的影响。全球范围内,森林砍伐后向草地和农田的转化发挥碳源的作用,在毁林碳排放中占主导地位,其中热带地区森林转变为农田和草场的碳排放均高于温带和北方森林。另一方面,土地利用变化可促进森林的碳贮存,如退耕还林、改善森林管理等。各区域森林生态系统通过土地利用变化贮存碳的潜力存在显著差别,热带湿润和半湿润地区具有较大的碳汇潜力,而干旱地区减少碳排放的空间相对较少。开垦活动是影响草地生态系统碳储存最主要的人类活动,草地转变为农田伴随着土壤碳的流失。森林或草场转变为农田的过程伴随着植被和土壤碳储量的减少,生态系统碳储量降低,因此它是一个碳排放的过程。伴随着城市的扩张,农田向建设用地的转化也是一个碳排放的过程。当前评估土地利用变化影响的研究方法主要有遥感观测和遥感模型、统计估算、生态系统模型以及土地利用与生态系统模型的耦合。研究方法得到不断地完善和改进的同时,还存在着一些不确定性,因此需要建立统一的观测统计方法,降低数据中的不确定性;完善土地利用与生态系统模型的耦合研究;建立多尺度土地利用变化及生态系统综合技术方法体系;开展碳减排目标下土地利用最优化布局研究。     

湖南省森林植被碳储量、碳密度动态特征

利用湖南省4次(1983—1987年、1990—1995年、2003—2004年和2009年)森林资源清查数据,采用材积源-生物量法,结合湖南省现有森林植被主要树种碳含量实测数据,研究近20多年来湖南省森林植被碳储量、碳密度的动态特征。结果表明:从1987年到2009年,湖南省乔木林植被碳汇为66.40×106tC,碳密度提高了5.65 tC/hm~2,阔叶林碳汇最大(48.43×10~6tC),其次是杉木林(9.54×10~6tC)和松木林(6.68×10~6tC),各乔木林植被碳密度波动较大;除过熟林外,各龄组乔木林均为碳汇,中龄林碳汇最大,幼龄林、中龄林、近熟林植被碳密度依次提高了4.75、4.09、0.83 tC/hm~2,成熟林、过熟林分别下降了6.87、13.88 tC/hm~2;天然林、人工林植被碳汇分别为41.01×10~6tC、25.39×10~6tC,碳密度分别提高了7.19、4.91 tC/hm~2。湖南省森林植被(包括疏林)碳汇为84.87×10~6tC,乔木林碳汇最大,其次是竹林,分别占湖南省森林植被碳汇的78.24%和33.31%,碳密度提高了6.24 tC/hm~2,各森林类型植被碳储量随其面积变化而变化。表明近20多年来,湖南省乔木林植被单位面积储碳能力明显提高,天然林在湖南省乔木林植被碳储量占有重要地位。     

基于土地利用变化的四川省碳排放与碳足迹效应及时空格局

土地利用变化的碳排放与碳足迹研究对了解人类活动对生态环境的扰动程度及其机理、制定有效的碳排放政策具有重要意义。采用1990—2010年四川省能源消费数据和土地利用数据,通过构建碳排放模型、碳足迹及其压力指数模型,对研究区20年来土地利用的碳排放及碳足迹进行了定量分析。结果表明:(1)土地利用变化的碳排放和能源消费碳的足迹呈显著增加趋势。碳排放增加5407.839×10~4t,增长率达143%;能源消费的碳足迹增加1566.622×10~4hm~2,四川全省的生态赤字达1563.598×10~4hm~2。(2)建设用地和林地分别为四川省最大的碳源与碳汇。20年间建设用地的碳排放增加5407.072×10~4t,增长率达126.27%,占碳排放总量的88%以上;林地的碳汇减少10.351×10~4t,但仍占四川省碳汇的96%以上。(3)土地利用碳排放、碳足迹和生态赤字存在明显区域差异。成都平原区碳排放、碳足迹压力最大,生态赤字严重,西部高山高原区和盆周山区碳排放、碳足迹最小,未出现生态赤字;成都、德阳、资阳和内江等地的碳排放、碳足迹压力最大,生态赤字最严重,甘孜、阿坝等地的碳排放、碳足迹最小,未出现生态赤字。(4)土地利用结构与碳排放、碳足迹存在一定的相互关系,趋高的碳源、碳汇比导致土地利用的碳源效应远大于碳汇效应。因此,四川省减排的重点应该在保持或增加现有的林地的同时,主要以降低建设用地的碳排放、碳足迹为主。     

Temporal patterns of land-use change and carbon storage in China and tropical Asia

Evaluating the annual sources and sinks of carbon from land-use changehelps constrain other terms in the global carbon cycle and may help countries choose how to comply with commitments for reduced emissions. This paper presents the results of recent analyses of land-use change in China and tropical Asia. The original forest areas are estimated to have covered 546×106 ha in tropical Asia and 425×106 ha in China. By 1850, 44% of China's forests had been cleared, and another 27% was lost between 1850 and 1980, leaving China with 13% forest cover (29% of the initial forest area). Tropical Asia is estimated to have lost 26%of its initial forest cover before 1850 and another 33% after 1850. The annual emissions of carbon from the two regions reflect the different histories over the last 150 years, with China's emissions peaking in the late 1950s (at 0.2-0.5 Pg C@a-1) and tropical Asia's emissions peaking in 1990s (at 1.0 Pg C@a-1). Despite the fact that most deforestation has been for new agricultural land, the majority of the lands cleared from forests in China are no longer croplands, but fallow or degraded shrublands. Unlike croplands, the origins of these other lands are poorly documented, and thus add considerable uncertainty to estimates of flux before the 1980s. Nevertheless, carbon emissions from China seem to have decreased since the 1960s to nearly zero at present. In contrast, emissions of carbon from tropical Asia were higher in the 1990s than that at any time in the past.     

Land use change and the global carbon cycle: the role of tropical soils

Millions of hectares of tropical forest are cleared annually for agriculture, pasture, shifting cultivation and timber. One result of these changes in land use is the release of CO₂ from the cleared vegetation and soils. Although there is uncertainty as to the size of this release, it appears to be a major source of atmospheric CO₂, second only to the release from the combustion of fossil fuels. This study estimates the release of CO₂ from tropical soils using a computer model that simulates land use change in the tropics and data on (1) the carbon content of forest soils before clearing; (2) the changes in the carbon content under the various types of land use; and (3) the area of forest converted to each use. It appears that the clearing and use of tropical soils affects their carbon content to a depth of about 40 cm. Soils of tropical closed forests contain approximately 6.7 kg C · m^-2; soils of tropical open forests contain approximately 5.2 kg C · m^-2 to this depth. The cultivation of tropical soils reduces their carbon content by 40% 5 yr after clearing; the use of these soils for pasture reduces it by about 20%. Logging in tropical forests appears to have little effect on soil carbon. The carbon content of soils used by shifting cultivators returns to the level found under primary forest about 35 yr after abandonment. The estimated net release of carbon from tropical soils due to land use change was 0.11–0.26 × 10¹⁵ g in 1980.     

Pyrogenic organic matter production from wildfires: a missing sink in the global carbon cycle

Wildfires release substantial quantities of carbon (C) into the atmosphere but they also convert part of the burnt biomass into pyrogenic organic matter (PyOM). This is richer in C and, overall, more resistant to environmental degradation than the original biomass, and, therefore, PyOM production is an efficient mechanism for C sequestration. The magnitude of this C sink, however, remains poorly quantified, and current production estimates, which suggest that ~1‐5% of the C affected by fire is converted to PyOM, are based on incomplete inventories. Here, we quantify, for the first time, the complete range of PyOM components found in‐situ immediately after a typical boreal forest fire. We utilized an experimental high‐intensity crown fire in a jack pine forest (Pinus banksiana) and carried out a detailed pre‐ and postfire inventory and quantification of all fuel components, and the PyOM (i.e., all visually charred, blackened materials) produced in each of them. Our results show that, overall, 27.6% of the C affected by fire was retained in PyOM (4.8 ± 0.8 t C ha^?1), rather than emitted to the atmosphere (12.6 ± 4.5 t C ha^?1). The conversion rates varied substantially between fuel components. For down wood and bark, over half of the C affected was converted to PyOM, whereas for forest floor it was only one quarter, and less than a tenth for needles. If the overall conversion rate found here were applicable to boreal wildfire in general, it would translate into a PyOM production of ~100 Tg C yr^?1 by wildfire in the global boreal regions, more than five times the amount estimated previously. Our findings suggest that PyOM production from boreal wildfires, and potentially also from other fire‐prone ecosystems, may have been underestimated and that its quantitative importance as a C sink warrants its inclusion in the global C budget estimates.     

The high-latitude terrestrial carbon sink: a model analysis

A dynamic, global vegetation model, hybrid v4.1 ( Friend et al. 1997 ), was driven by transient climate output from the UK Hadley Centre GCM (HadCM2) with the IS92a scenario of increasing atmospheric CO₂ equivalent, sulphate aerosols and predicted patterns of atmospheric N deposition. Changes in areas of vegetation types and carbon storage in biomass and soils were predicted for areas north of 50°N from 1860 to 2100. Hybrid is a combined biogeochemical, biophysical and biogeographical model of natural, potential ecosystems. The effect of periodic boreal forest fires was assessed by adding a simple stochastic fire model. Hybrid represents plant physiological and soil processes regulating the carbon, water and N cycles and competition between individuals of parameterized generalized plant types. The latter were combined to represent tundra, temperate grassland, temperate/mixed forest and coniferous forest. The model simulated the current areas and estimated carbon stocks in the four vegetation types. It was predicted that land areas above 50°N (about 23% of the vegetated global land area) are currently accumulating about 0.4 PgC y^?1 (about 30% of the estimated global terrestrial sink) and that this sink could grow to 0.8–1.0 PgC y^?1 by the second half of the next century and persist undiminished until 2100. This sink was due mainly to an increase in forest productivity and biomass in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂, temperature and N deposition, and includes an estimate of the effect of boreal forest fire, which was estimated to diminish the sink approximately by the amount of carbon emitted to the atmosphere during fires. Averaged over the region, N deposition contributed about 18% to the sink by the 2080 s. As expected, climate change (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and saturation pressure deficit) and N deposition without increasing atmospheric CO₂ produced a carbon source. Forest areas expanded both south and north, halving the current tundra area by 2100. This expansion contributed about 30% to the sink by the 2090 s. Tundra areas which were not invaded by forest fluctuated from sink to source. It was concluded that a high latitude carbon sink exists at present and, even assuming little effect of N deposition, no forest expansion and continued boreal forest fires, the sink is likely to persist at its current level for a century.     

The influence of rapid urbanization and land use changes on terrestrial carbon sources/sinks in Guangzhou,China

Complex changes in carbon sources and sinks caused by rapid urbanization have been observed with extensive changes in the quantity, structure, and spatial pattern of land use types. Based on the modified Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach model and on gray relational analysis, we analyzed the influence of land use changes on carbon sinks and emissions in Guangzhou from 2000 to 2012. The aim was to identify suitable options for built-up land expansion that would allow for minimal carbon losses. The key results were as follows: (1) Built-up land increased by 118.91% in Guangzhou city over the study period, with this expansion taking the form of concentric circles extending around the old Yuexiu district. (2) Carbon emissions over the period of analysis significantly exceeded carbon sink capabilities. The total carbon sink decreased by 30.02%, from 535.40 × 10³ t to 374.6 × 10³ t. Total carbon emissions increased by 1.89 times, from 13.73 × 10⁶ t to 39.67 × 10⁶ t; 80% of carbon emissions were derived from energy consumption. (3) There were large differences in the extent of carbon sink losses at different scales of built-up land expansion and land use change. In Guangzhou, the loss of carbon sink is small when cultivated land (though not prime farmland) and water bodies are converted to built-up land on a small scale. The loss of carbon sink is much smaller when grasslands are converted to built-up land on a large scale. However, forested land, which has excellent carbon sink functions, should not be converted. (4) Changes in carbon sinks were mainly affected by natural factors and land urbanization. Changes in carbon emissions were mainly affected by population urbanization, economic urbanization, and land urbanization. (5) To achieve “economical and intensive use of land”, “urban growth boundary” and “ecological red lines” should be determined for government policies on land use management. These factors have great significance for “increasing carbon sinks and reducing carbon emissions” in urban ecological systems.     

Why are estimates of the terrestrial carbon balance so different?

The carbon balance of the world's terrestrial ecosystems is uncertain. Both top‐down (atmospheric) and bottom‐up (forest inventory and land‐use change) approaches have been used to calculate the sign and magnitude of a net terrestrial flux. Different methods often include different processes, however, and comparisons can be misleading. Differences are not necessarily the result of uncertainties or errors, but often result from incomplete accounting inherent in some of the methods. Recent estimates are reviewed here. Overall, a northern mid‐latitude carbon sink of approximately 2 Pg C yr^?1 appears robust, although the mechanisms responsible are uncertain. Several lines of evidence point to environmentally enhanced rates of carbon accumulation. Other lines suggest that recovery from past disturbances is largely responsible for the sink. The tropics appear to be a small net source of carbon or nearly neutral, and the same uncertainties of mechanism exist. In addition, studies in the tropics do not permit an unequivocal choice between two alternatives: large emissions of carbon from deforestation offset by large sinks in undisturbed forests, or moderate emissions from land‐use change with essentially no change in the carbon balance in undisturbed forests. Resolution of these uncertainties is most likely to result from spatially detailed historical reconstructions of land‐use change and disturbance in selected northern mid‐latitude regions where such data are available, and from systematic monitoring of changes in the area of tropical forests with satellite data of high spatial resolution collected over the last decades and into the future.     

CO2 emissions from land‐use change affected more by nitrogen cycle,than by the choice of land‐cover data

The high uncertainty in land‐based CO₂ fluxes estimates is thought to be mainly due to uncertainty in not only quantifying historical changes among forests, croplands, and grassland, but also due to different processes included in calculation methods. Inclusion of a nitrogen (N) cycle in models is fairly recent and strongly affects carbon (C) fluxes. In this study, for the first time, we use a model with C and N dynamics with three distinct historical reconstructions of land‐use and land‐use change (LULUC) to quantify LULUC emissions and uncertainty that includes the integrated effects of not only climate and CO₂ but also N. The modeled global average emissions including N dynamics for the 1980s, 1990s, and 2000–2005 were 1.8 ± 0.2, 1.7 ± 0.2, and 1.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr^?1, respectively, (mean and range across LULUC data sets). The emissions from tropics were 0.8 ± 0.2, 0.8 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.3 GtC yr^?1, and the non tropics were 1.1 ± 0.5, 0.9 ± 0.2, and 0.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr^?1. Compared to previous studies that did not include N dynamics, modeled net LULUC emissions were higher, particularly in the non tropics. In the model, N limitation reduces regrowth rates of vegetation in temperate areas resulting in higher net emissions. Our results indicate that exclusion of N dynamics leads to an underestimation of LULUC emissions by around 70% in the non tropics, 10% in the tropics, and 40% globally in the 1990s. The differences due to inclusion/exclusion of the N cycle of 0.1 GtC yr^?1 in the tropics, 0.6 GtC yr^?1 in the non tropics, and 0.7 GtC yr^?1 globally (mean across land‐cover data sets) in the 1990s were greater than differences due to the land‐cover data in the non tropics and globally (0.2 GtC yr^?1). While land‐cover information is improving with satellite and inventory data, this study indicates the importance of accounting for different processes, in particular the N cycle.     

Assessing the influence of historic net and gross land changes on the carbon fluxes of Europe

Legacy effects of land cover/use on carbon fluxes require considering both present and past land cover/use change dynamics. To assess past land use dynamics, model‐based reconstructions of historic land cover/use are needed. Most historic reconstructions consider only the net area difference between two time steps (net changes) instead of accounting for all area gains and losses (gross changes). Studies about the impact of gross and net land change accounting methods on the carbon balance are still lacking. In this study, we assessed historic changes in carbon in soils for five land cover/use types and of carbon in above‐ground biomass of forests. The assessment focused on Europe for the period 1950 to 2010 with decadal time steps at 1‐km spatial resolution using a bookkeeping approach. To assess the implications of gross land change data, we also used net land changes for comparison. Main contributors to carbon sequestration between 1950 and 2010 were afforestation and cropland abandonment leading to 14.6 PgC sequestered carbon (of which 7.6 PgC was in forest biomass). Sequestration was highest for old‐growth forest areas. A sequestration dip was reached during the 1970s due to changes in forest management practices. Main contributors to carbon emissions were deforestation (1.7 PgC) and stable cropland areas on peaty soils (0.8 PgC). In total, net fluxes summed up to 203 TgC yr^?1 (98 TgC yr^?1 in forest biomass and 105 TgC yr^?1 in soils). For areas that were subject to land changes in both reconstructions (35% of total area), the differences in carbon fluxes were about 68%. Overall for Europe the difference between accounting for either gross or net land changes led to 7% difference (up to 11% per decade) in carbon fluxes with systematically higher fluxes for gross land change data.