Analysis of seasonal variation of birth defects in Atlanta

BACKGROUND: Compared with analyses of temporal trends, analyses of seasonal variations in the prevalence of birth defects have been more limited and have provided less consistent information. Possible reasons for this lack of consistency in findings include differences in populations, underlying factors, seasons or climates, and methods of ascertainment and analysis between studies. This study examines possible seasonal variation in the prevalence of selected birth defects in a defined study population using graphical displays and three statistical methods. METHODS: Cases were infants and fetal deaths in nine birth defect groups born to residents of mothers in five counties of metropolitan Atlanta during the period of 1978-2001 and ascertained by the Metropolitan Atlanta Congenital Defects Program. These birth defect groups were anencephaly, spina bifida, total neural tube defects, cleft palate, cleft lip with or without cleft palate, anomalies of the pulmonary valve, anomalies of the aortic valve, hypoplastic left heart syndrome, and congenital dislocation of the hip. We pooled monthly case counts and calculated monthly rates for each of these birth defect groups for five different birth periods: 1978-2001, 1978-1989, 1990-2001, 1990-1994, and 1995-2001. We applied the Cochran-Armitage test for trend to rule out homogeneity in pooled monthly rates. Data for each defect group were examined for possible seasonal (i.e., cyclical) variation overall and within the cited birth periods using the Hewitt-Rogerson test and the Walter-Elwood test. RESULTS: Graphical analyses of the pooled monthly rates showed no apparent seasonal patterns for any of the nine defect groups examined. Statistical tests for seasonality suggested possible seasonality for three defect groups: the Hewitt-Rogerson test was statistically significant for anencephaly (peak March-August, p = 0.048),while the Walter-Elwood test was significant for anomalies of the pulmonary valve (peak September, p = 0.02), and anomalies of the aortic valve (peak July, p = 0.039). With both methods, the results appeared to be influenced by the choice of time (i.e., birth) period. Results for anomalies of the pulmonary valve were statistically significant and more consistent with all tests in most of the time periods examined. CONCLUSIONS: Graphical analyses and basic statistical tests for seasonality showed no consistent evidence of seasonality for any of the nine defect groups examined, except for anomalies of the pulmonary valve. The two basic statistical methods coupled by a trend test for exploring seasonal patterns of the prevalence of birth defects can be useful for preliminary analyses of possible seasonal patterns. However, these methods have some limitations: (1) an assumption of no strong temporal trend over the study years, and (2) the results can vary by time period chosen. For specific hypotheses regarding seasonality, a more robust analytical approach such as time-series analysis might be more appropriate.     

When will the stork arrive? Patterns of birth seasonality in neotropical primates

We review and discuss the ultimate and proximate causes of birth seasonality in Neotropical primates and the seasonal patterns shown by each genus within this group. Our review of the literature shows that most New World monkey populations studied so far show some degree of birth seasonality. Photoperiod is the most important proximate cue used by populations living at relatively high latitudes to time their reproductive events, but almost nothing is known about the proximate factors used by those near the equator. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that food availability is the most important ultimate cause of birth seasonality. Predation seems to promote birth synchrony in some species (e.g., squirrel monkeys). Multiple regression ANCOVA was used to estimate how the degree of birth seasonality is affected by ecological and life history variables. The ANCOVA model shows that three factors affect the degree of birth seasonality: diet, latitude, and body size. Folivores (howlers) are less seasonal than frugivores and insectivores. The degree of seasonality increases with latitude and shows a humped relationship with body size, peaking at 1.66 kg body mass. This last relationship was expected since small bodied species have to pay a cost (in terms of time lost) by being seasonal on a yearly basis, and large species are buffered against fluctuations in food availability due to their large body mass. To understand which of three alternative birth strategies is followed by each species (reduce energy stress during peak lactation, wean infants during peak food availability, or store reserves during peak energy availability), we compared the location of the birth peak in relation to the peak in food-availability for those populations from which data were available. Most species conform to the typical pattern of births concentrated before the peak in food availability, allowing peak lactation (small-sized species) or weaning (capuchins) to take place before the start of the lean season. The pattern of births of the atelines is consistent with the weaning hypothesis. However, since they give birth during the lean season, this pattern is also consistent with an alternative strategy.     

Seasonality of first coitus in the United States.

Recent attention to causes of seasonality of births leads to an interest in seasonality patterns in the antecedents to birth, including gestational length, conception, and coital activity. In this paper we study the beginning of the process: first intercourse among adolescents and young adults. Analysis of a small and local dataset is suggestive that loss of virginity is particularly likely during the summer. A test of this "Summer Vacation Theory" using a large national dataset supports the generality of the phenomenon. Further, a prediction that seasonality patterns will change during the transition from high school to work and college is tested and supported. The existence of both biological and psycho-social mechanisms is suggested. Policy implications are reviewed.     

Seasonality of births in nineteenth-century urban Tasmania.

The monthly distribution of births for Hobart Town, Van Diemen's Land, during the period 1839-1859 is examined. Prior research on two rural registration districts in nineteenth-century Tasmania revealed patterns of birth seasonality. The pattern was responsive to both the distinctive seasonal rhythm of regional economic activities and the birth interval and differed from the pattern for all of Tasmania in the twentieth century. Here, I argue that the aggregate monthly pattern of births in a mid-nineteenth-century urban registration district was, by contrast, not seasonal. Some seasonality was found among farmers, seamen, and dealers in foodstuffs but not in other industry groups. Class differences were not apparent. The research establishes that the seasonal distribution of mid-nineteenth-century urban births corresponds neither to nineteenth-century rural patterns nor to the patterns evident in the twentieth century.     

Epidemiological effects of seasonal oscillations in birth rates

Seasonal oscillations in birth rates are ubiquitous in human populations. These oscillations might play an important role in infectious disease dynamics because they induce seasonal variation in the number of susceptible individuals that enter populations. We incorporate seasonality of birth rate into the standard, deterministic susceptible-infectious-recovered (SIR) and susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) epidemic models and identify parameter regions in which birth seasonality can be expected to have observable epidemiological effects. The SIR and SEIR models yield similar results if the infectious period in the SIR model is compared with the "infected period" (the sum of the latent and infectious periods) in the SEIR model. For extremely transmissible pathogens, large amplitude birth seasonality can induce resonant oscillations in disease incidence, bifurcations to stable multi-year epidemic cycles, and hysteresis. Typical childhood infectious diseases are not sufficiently transmissible for their asymptotic dynamics to be likely to exhibit such behaviour. However, we show that fold and period-doubling bifurcations generically occur within regions of parameter space where transients are phase-locked onto cycles resembling the limit cycles beyond the bifurcations, and that these phase-locking regions extend to arbitrarily small amplitude of seasonality of birth rates. Consequently, significant epidemiological effects of birth seasonality may occur in practice in the form of transient dynamics that are sustained by demographic stochasticity.     

Seasonality of births: stability and change in a developing country

A marked seasonality of births for the two main ethnic groups of peninsular Malaysia, far exceeding the cyclic fluctuations in births in the United States and Canada, was reported for the 1960s. A 36% excess of births over the average monthly number was observed among Malays each January. Among the ethnic Chinese in Malaysia a regular periodicity in the numbers of births was also found, but it was far less marked and the peak occurred in October or November. The peaks in both groups were due in large measure to conceptions that correlate with religious observances or holidays. Here I report on cyclic birth patterns in peninsular Malaysia for the period 1970-1985. Rapid economic development has occurred during this time and has brought with it demographic changes, such as a massive rise in contraceptive use and a decline in birth rates. These demographic changes have been accompanied by the loss of the pronounced seasonal pattern of births among the Malays. The seasonality of Malay births is now of roughly the same magnitude as the seasonality in the United States and Canada, whereas seasonality of births among the Chinese in Malaysia remains essentially unchanged.     

Effects of the fertility transition on birth seasonality in the Netherlands

Synchronous with the decline in fertility that took place in the post-war period in the Netherlands, patterns of birth seasonality changed as well. In this paper seasonal fluctuations in fertility in the Netherlands are examined using population register data for the period 1952 to 2005. The peak in births has changed from spring to summer and subsequently to August/September, thereby shifting from the European to the American pattern. The seasonal shift can be attributed to parity-specific changes. Before the transition, birth seasonality did not differ much between the different parities. In the transition period from higher to low fertility, differences between parities increased which persist up to today. At present, the overall seasonality pattern is determined by first births. Moreover, birth seasonality varies by maternal age. The findings stimulate the discussion on the role of planning as a cause of birth seasonality.     

北美CHIHUAHUAN荒漠11种啮齿动物种群密度季节性和周期性的比较研究

本文提出了季节性指标并用时间序列方法分析和比较了北美Chihuahuan荒漠11种啮齿动物种群密度的季节性、趋势和周期性。结果表明,研究期各年间盘尼西拉特斯颊囊鼠(C.p-enicillatus)有最显著的季节性,鹿鼠属(Peromyscus)的两个物种和伏拉瓦斯囊鼠(Pg.flav-us)的季节性最无规律;11个种群中有7个有趋势,除旗尾更格卢鼠(D.spectabilis)的种群密度呈减少趋势外,其余6个种群的密度呈增加的趋势;种群密度的周期,麦利阿姆更格卢鼠(D.merriami)是4年,曼利卡拉特斯鹿鼠(P.maniculatus)是4.5年,盘尼西拉特斯颊囊鼠(C.penicillatus)等3个种群是1年。对11个种群的比较说明,这些种群密度的季节性、趋势和周期性呈现出明显的多样化,且与它们的亲缘关系或种系发生历史无显著关系。11个种群的密度变动的多样化维持了它们在时间方面的共存。     

Seasonality of births in human populations.

Seasonal fluctuations in births have been observed in virtually all human populations. In this paper we re-examine the seasonality of births with two main objectives in mind. The first is to provide an overview of the basic facts about the seasonality of births, presenting new estimates of the seasonal patterns. Seasonality is an important if not dominant source of nontrend variation in births in virtually all populations, but there are dramatic and puzzling differences across countries and time periods in the pattern of seasonal variation observed in particular populations. The second purpose of the paper is to survey the leading hypotheses about birth seasonality that have appeared in the literature and to discuss the consistency of these hypotheses with observed seasonal patterns. Using our estimates of seasonal patterns along with other evidence in the literature, we conclude that no single explanation receives strong, consistent support from the data.     

Role of seasonal factors in pre- and postnatal ontogenesis for etiology of type 1 diabetes mellitus

Type 1 diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease characterized by autoimmune degradation of insulin-producing beta-cells. It was shown in a number of epidemiological studies of seasonality of birth in children with type 1 diabetes that the autoimmune process began during fetal and postnatal development. No such studies were carried out in the former Soviet Union countries. The aim of the present study is to compare the seasonal birth month pattern in patients with type 1 diabetes (10780 men and 9337 women) born in 1960-2002 to that in the total population of Ukraine (14 785601 men and 13 911370 women) born during the same period. Significant differences were found between these two populations: chi-squared = 103.97, p < 0.0001 and 135.17, p < 0.0001 in men and women, respectively. The results of cosinor analysis showed similar sinusoidal birth patterns of patients with type 1 diabetes in all sub-groups, irrespective of the age of clinical disease expression: 0-9, 10-19, or 20-29 years. In all cases, the highest and lowest predispositions to type 1 diabetes were inherent in the people born in spring and autumn, respectively. We propose that seasonal differences in the birth pattern in the two above populations could be due to long-term programming of glucose-insulin metabolism determined by the effect of certain seasonal factors during early ontogenesis.     

Annual Variation in Ecology and Reproduction of Wild Simakobu (Simias concolor)

Seasonal breeding in primates is related to the degree of environmental seasonality, particularly the availability and predictability of food. Southeast Asian species in general show moderate birth seasonality due to either low environmental seasonality or unpredictable fluctuations of mast-fruiting food resources. One Southeast Asian primate, the simakobu (Simias concolor), however, has been reported to be a strict seasonal breeder with births occurring in June and July only. It is unclear whether these observations are characteristic of the species or result from a sampling bias. To address this question, we documented the annual distribution of 11 births in eight groups of simakobu over two consecutive years at Pungut, an undisturbed site on Siberut Island, Indonesia. We assessed annual variation in ecology and reproduction via rainfall, temperature, food availability, feeding time, physical condition, conceptions, and births. Mean monthly temperature was nearly constant (26.3–27.1?°C), and monthly precipitation always high (219–432?mm). Although simakobu foods were abundant year-round, there were two fruit-feeding peaks in June and September. In contrast to previous reports, we documented births in 7?mo. Most births occurred in October (45?%), the wettest month of the year, and most conceptions in March and April, following a peak in unripe fruit availability. Although sample sizes are very small, females seemed to conceive when their physical condition was best, suggesting that simakobu time conceptions flexibly to the recovery of energy reserves. Across study sites, births occurred in 10 calendar months, indicating that simakobu reproduction is not strictly seasonal.     

Seasonality of birth in the majors, 1880-1999

We examined two alternative explanations, one demographic, the other sociological, for the uneven distribution of birth months of Major League baseball (MLB) players active between 1880 and 1999. Beginning in 1900, players born between August and October were significantly overrepresented, and this uneven distribution was almost identical for the next five 20-year periods. During the last 20-year period (1980-1999), the disparity in birth months became even more pronounced. Ethnicity, handedness, player position, accomplishment (winning an award), and career length were not significantly related to birth month. Prior to 1980, the distribution of births for MLB players did not differ significantly from the distribution for the general population, but after 1980, it did. We concluded that up until 1980, the uneven distribution of birth months in MLB originated in the demographic seasonality-related excess number of births in August and September in the United States. Beginning in the 1980s, this seasonality pattern was institutionally reinforced by the growing influence of Little League and related junior baseball leagues and their reliance on the August 1 birth date for age grouping.     

Seasonality of births and family characteristics in a Spanish population

The seasonality of births in the period 1871-1977 is studied in a rural north-western Spanish population. Based on a total sample of 11,695 birth registrations, temporal variation is analysed. For siblings, according to family reconstitution, the total family size, the legitimacy of the child, and birth order are considered. A coefficient of birth month dispersion is defined and estimated for each family. Intra-family variation is related to inter-family coefficients in order to determine whether the local seasonal pattern of births may be partly explained by family characteristics.     

Seasonality of births is associated with seasonality of marriages in Malta

This study was carried out to quantify secular trends in seasonal variation in births in Malta, a small Mediterranean country where the vast proportion of births occur in wedlock due to a predominantly Roman Catholic population. It also related such variations to seasonal variation in marriages. Annual seasonal peaks of marriages and births were analysed over the period 1950-1996 by X11 ARIMA. A significant peak in marriages (n = 111,932) in the third quarter of the year was found for almost the entire period under study. This was paralleled by a peak in births (n = 299,558) for the period 1970-1996, which lagged after the peak in marriages by 13-14 months. For the period 1994-1996, when monthly data for monthly pregnancies were available by pregnancy order, the peak in births was caused by first pregnancies only. Seasonal patterns in births occur almost universally due to cultural and/or biometeorological factors. The best known patterns include those of the southern United States, where births decline in April and May, and in northern Europe, where births peak in March and April. In Malta, the late summer peak in births appears to be due to a practical and planned approach by Maltese couples to contraceptive planning, probably influenced by the Roman Catholic ethos and social pressures, with unprotected intercourse occurring only after marriage. In Malta, birth control, albeit by so-called natural methods, was introduced in the 1960s. Prior to this period, births peaked towards the beginning/end of the year, and this may be the more natural seasonality of births in Malta.     

Seasonal Differences in Activity Patterns of Geoffroyi´s Spider Monkeys (<Emphasis Type="BoldItalic">Ateles geoffroyi</Emphasis>) Living in Continuous and Fragmented Forests in Southern Mexico

Understanding how primates adjust their behavior in response to seasonality in both continuous and fragmented forests is a fundamental challenge for primatologists and conservation biologists. During a 15-mo period, we studied the activity patterns of 6 communities of spider monkeys (Ateles geoffroyi) living in continuous and fragmented forests in the Lacandona rain forest, Mexico. We tested the effects of forest type (continuous and fragmented), season (dry and rainy), and their interaction on spider monkey activity patterns. Overall, monkeys spent more time feeding and less time traveling in fragments than in continuous forest. A more leafy diet and the spatial limitations in fragments likely explain these results. Time spent feeding was greater in the rainy than in the dry season, whereas time spent resting followed the opposite pattern. The increase in percent leaves consumed, and higher temperatures during the dry season, may contribute to the observed increase in resting time because monkeys probably need to reduce energy expenditure. Forest type and seasonality did not interact with activity patterns, indicating that the effect of seasonality on activities was similar across all sites. Our findings confirm that spider monkeys are able to adjust their activity patterns to deal with food scarcity in forest fragments and during the dry season. However, further studies are necessary to assess if these shifts are adequate to ensure their health, fitness, and long-term persistence in fragmented habitats.     

Birth Patterns in Wild and Captive Lion-Tailed Macaques (Macaca silenus)

During a 5-yr study of lion-tailed macaques in their natural habitat, we found that: 1) most births occurred from January to April (70%) and from September to December (19%), showing a bimodal pattern with a major and a minor birth peak; 2) the period of peaks remained the same over 5 yr; and 3) a similar pattern of birth peaks occurred both in groups in large forest complexes that had overlapping home ranges with other groups and in single groups that were isolated in forest fragments in the same region but with similar ecological conditions. The results suggest more of a birth seasonality than mere breeding synchronization in the wild lion-tailed macaques. We also analyzed data on births in captivity in European Zoos for 10 yr. We observed no seasonality or peaks in births, and the pattern was the same over the years. Data on rainfall suggest that resource availability in the wild habitat may not be uniform throughout the year; hence, ecological factors may play an important role in determination of birth patterns in the natural habitats of lion-tailed macaques.     

The influence of latitude and cloud cover on the seasonality of human births

BACKGROUND: A previous study (Cummings, 2002), hypothesized that human birth seasonality was primarily related to environmental light intensity/photoperiod. PURPOSE: There are two primary goals: to explain seasonality differences between U.S., Canada, and Europe and to test the influence of environmental light intensity/photoperiod at divergent latitudes. METHODOLOGY: Existing seasonality data were extracted from previous studies at various locations throughout the world. Daily cloud cover amounts (clearness) were utilized as indices for environmental light intensity. DISCUSSION: Results were evaluated and discussed for each sub-study. CONCLUSION: Sub-study results support the hypothesis that human birth seasonality may be influenced by environmental light intensity and photoperiod. This conclusion is supported by logical links between increased light intensity/photoperiod and conceptions at different latitudes. Irrefutable proof may involve correlating long term changes in cloud cover with long term changes in human birth seasonality.     

Large‐sized insects show stronger seasonality than small‐sized ones: a case study of fruit‐feeding butterflies

Animal species have a restricted period during the year when conditions for development are optimal, and this is known as the temporal window. Duration of the temporal window can vary among species, although the causes of variation are still poorly understood. In the present study, examining butterflies, we assume that the temporal window duration is correlated with the seasonal period of flight (termed seasonality). To understand how species characteristics are correlated with this, we examine whether there is a relationship between body size and length of flight period of fruit‐feeding butterflies in forest fragments, and whether these two parameters have a phylogenetic signal. Using wing size as a measure of body size and the period of adult flight as a measure of seasonality, we found significant positive correlations between body size and seasonality among subfamilies but not within subfamilies. We also found a clear phylogenetic signal in size but not in seasonality. The results obtained suggest the existence of a trade‐off between insect size and seasonality, with size limiting flight period length. The relationship between body size and seasonality and the synchrony with their resources may be one factor explaining the vulnerability of large insects to forest fragmentation. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2011, 104 , 820–827.     

Effects of maternal birth season on birth seasonality in the Canadian population during the seventeenth and eighteenth centuries

Birth records of the French-Canadian population for the period 1621-1765 were analyzed retrospectively to examine the effect of maternal birth season on the seasonal distribution of births. Preliminary examination indicated that there was a bimodal pattern in birth seasonality: a major peak in early spring, a trough in early summer, a minor peak in autumn, and a trough around December. Because this seasonality was strongly biased at the level of the first birth by the month of marriage, which was concentrated in November, the seasonality of nonfirst births (n = 32,926) was examined in relation to the four seasons of maternal birth. Mothers born in May-July showed a flatter monthly distribution of nonfirst births at a maternal age of 28 years or more. Analysis of marriage-first birth intervals indicated that mothers who married in August-October showed a lower percentage of immediate conception (intervals of 8-10 months), whereas those mothers born in May-July had a higher percentage of immediate conception. This difference in birth seasonality shown by mothers born in May-July is similar to results from early twentieth-century Japan. Some seasonal infertility factors could have affected the embryos at the earliest stage of pregnancy, modifying a part of the seasonal variation in birth rate.