Three stage semelparous Leslie models

Nonlinear Leslie matrix models have a long history of use for modeling the dynamics of semelparous species. Semelparous models, as do nonlinear matrix models in general, undergo a transcritical equilibrium bifurcation at inherent net reproductive number R ₀ = 1 where the extinction equilibrium loses stability. Semelparous models however do not fall under the purview of the general theory because this bifurcation is of higher co-dimension. This mathematical fact has biological implications that relate to a dichotomy of dynamic possibilities, namely, an equilibration with over lapping age classes as opposed to an oscillation in which age classes are periodically missing. The latter possibility makes these models of particular interest, for example, in application to the well known outbreaks of periodical insects. While the nature of the bifurcation at R ₀ = 1 is known for two-dimensional semelparous Leslie models, only limited results are available for higher dimensional models. In this paper I give a thorough accounting of the bifurcation at R ₀ = 1 in the three-dimensional case, under some monotonicity assumptions on the nonlinearities. In addition to the bifurcation of positive equilibria, there occurs a bifurcation of invariant loops that lie on the boundary of the positive cone. I describe the geometry of these loops, classify them into three distinct types, and show that they consist of either one or two three-cycles and heteroclinic orbits connecting (the phases of) these cycles. Furthermore, I determine stability and instability properties of these loops, in terms of model parameters, as well as those of the positive equilibria. The analysis also provides the global dynamics on the boundary of the cone. The stability and instability conditions are expressed in terms of certain measures of the strength and the symmetry/asymmetry of the inter-age class competitive interactions. Roughly speaking, strong inter-age class competitive interactions promote oscillations (not necessarily periodic) with separated life-cycle stages, while weak interactions promote stable equilibration with overlapping life-cycle stages. Methods used include the theory of planar monotone maps, average Lyapunov functions, and bifurcation theory techniques.      

On synchronization in semelparous populations

Synchronization, i.e., convergence towards a dynamical state where the whole population is in one age class, is a characteristic feature of some population models with semelparity. We prove some rigorous results on this, for a simple class of nonlinear one- population models with age structure and semelparity: (i) the survival probabilities are assumed constant, and (ii) only the last age class is reproducing (semelparity), with fecundity decreasing with total population. For this model we prove: (a) The synchronized, or Single Year Class (SYC), dynamical state is always attracting. (b) The coexistence equilibrium is often unstable; we state and prove simple results on this. (c) We describe dynamical states with some, but not all, age classes populated, which we call Multiple Year Class (MYC) patterns, and we prove results extending (a) and (b) into these patterns.Acknowledgement Boris Kruglikov contributed the nonlinear part of the formulation as well as the proof of Theorem 1. The authors are grateful for critical and constructive comments by N. Davydova and O. Diekmann. E.M. is also grateful for discussions with Marius Overholt concerning problems of proving Theorem 2.     

Effects of delay,truncations and density dependence in reproduction schedules on stability of nonlinear Leslie matrix models

Understanding effects of hypotheses about reproductive influences, reproductive schedules and the model mechanisms that lead to a loss of stability in a structured model population might provide information about the dynamics of natural population. To demonstrate characteristics of a discrete time, nonlinear, age structured population model, the transition from stability to instability is investigated. Questions about the stability, oscillations and delay processes within the model framework are posed. The relevant processes include delay of reproduction and truncation of lifetime, reproductive classes, and density dependent effects. We find that the effects of delaying reproduction is not stabilizing, but that the reproductive delay is a mechanism that acts to simplify the system dynamics. Density dependence in the reproduction schedule tends to lead to oscillations of large period and towards more unstable dynamics. The methods allow us to establish a conjecture of Levin and Goodyear about the form of the stability in discrete Leslie matrix models.This research was supported in part by the US Environmental Protection Agency under cooperation agreement CR-816081     

On the history of populations governed by a Leslie matrix

Even though the Leslie matrix is usually singular, there is a subspace on which is has an inverse. In addition, there is a projection into that subspace which preserves certain age classes. These two facts are combined to provide a model for the history of a population whose future is predicted by a Leslie matrix. It has the advantage of being composed of easily calculated matrices. The relation of this model to a backward projection method of Greville and Keyfitz is discussed and some other backward projection functions are proposed.     

Stochastic models for toxicant-stressed populations

We obtain conditions for the existence of an invariant distribution on (0, ∞) for stochastic growth models of Ito type. We interpret the results in the case where the intrinsic growth rate is adjusted to account for the impact of a toxicant on the population. Comparisons with related results for ODE models by Hallamet al. are given, and consequences of taking the Stratonovich interpretation for the stochastic models are mentioned.     

Periodic matrix models for seasonal dynamics of structured populations with application to a seabird population

Journal of Mathematical Biology - For structured populations with an annual breeding season, life-stage interactions and behavioral tactics may occur on a faster time scale than that of population...     

Additive models for dependent cell populations

We propose an additive model for cell population growth which allows for positive correlation between sister cell lifetimes but arbitrary correlations between mother and daughter cell lifetimes. In the model each cell lifetime is the sum of two independent components, one of which is shared with its sister cell and which is also a function of the components of the lifetime of their mother. Assuming that the components follow a gamma distribution, the model is fitted to cell lifetime data of EMT6 cells obtained by the method of time-lapse cinematography.     

A parity-structured matrix model for tsetse populations

A matrix model is used to describe the dynamics of a population of female tsetse flies structured by parity (i.e., by the number of larvae laid). For typical parameter values, the intrinsic growth rate of the population is zero when the adult daily survival rate is 0.970, corresponding to an adult life expectancy of 1/0.030 = 33.3 days. This value is plausible and consistent with results found earlier by others. The intrinsic growth rate is insensitive to the variance of the interlarval period. Temperature being a function of the time of the year, a known relationship between temperature and mean pupal and interlarval times was used to produce a time-varying version of the model which was fitted to temperature and (estimated) population data. With well-chosen parameter values, the modeled population replicated at least roughly the population data. This illustrates dynamically the abiotic effect of temperature on population growth. Given that tsetse flies are the vectors of trypanosomiasis ("sleeping sickness") the model provides a framework within which future transmission models can be developed in order to study the impact of altered temperatures on the spread of this deadly disease.     

Globally attracting attenuant versus resonant cycles in periodic compensatory Leslie models

We use a periodically forced density-dependent compensatory Leslie model to study the combined effects of environmental fluctuations and age-structure on pioneer populations. In constant environments, the models have globally attracting positive fixed points. However, with the advent of periodic forcing, the models have globally attracting cycles. We derive conditions under which the cycle is attenuant, resonant, and neither attenuant nor resonant. These results show that the response of age-structured populations to environmental fluctuations is a complex function of the compensatory mechanisms at different life-history stages, the fertile age classes and the period of the environment.     

An environ analysis for nonlinear compartment models

Environ analysis, an input-output analysis for models of ecological systems, has been previously formulated for linear systems. This note has a twofold purpose: first, we indicate that a variation of parameters technique can be applied, at least in principle, to computeboth input and output environs; and second, we show that this technique may be used for computation of environs in nonautonomous, nonlinear compartment models. This nonlinear theory, obtained as a direct extension of dynamical system developments, allows the traditional environ partitioning of compartmental storages and flows. An example of a nonlinear nutrient-producer-consumer system whose output environs can be computed asymptotically is presented to illustrate these concepts. This research was supported by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under cooperative agreement R806727030.     

Equilibrium points for nonlinear compartmental models.

Equilibrium points for nonlinear autonomous compartmental models with constant input are discussed. Upper and lower bounds for the steady states are derived. Theorems guaranteeing existence and uniqueness of equilibrium points for a large collection of system are proved. New information relating to mean residence times is developed. Asymptotic results and a section on stability are included. A recursive process is discussed that generates iterates that converge to steady states for certain types of models. An interesting range of models are included as examples. An attempt is made to provide general qualitative theory for such nonlinear compartmental systems.     

Production models for nonlinear stochastic age-structured fisheries

The overriding feature of stock-recruitment data for most fisheries is the amount of variability involved. Previous production models have assumed either an underlying linear stock-recruitment relationship [11] or an equilibrium condition [23]. Here a production model is derived for an age-structured fishery exhibiting nonlinear stochastic recruitment under nonequilibrium conditions. In the first section deterministic age-structured production models are reviewed, and in the next section corresponding random variable models are presented. Equations for the first and second order moments for each age class, for the stock, and for the yield are then derived using two approaches. The first approach assumes that third and order higher moments associated with the noise can be neglected (thus extending the “small noise” approach in [23]). The second approach assumes that the distributions associated with the random variables can be characterized by a particular two parameter distribution. This latter approximation can be applied to systems with “large noise,” and precision will not be lost for situations where the exact form of the distribution, associated with the stock-recruitment data, is unknown. Equations are derived for the solution under equilibrium recruitment and constant harvesting conditions. Detailed expressions are also obtained for the case where the random variables are assumed to satisfy a gamma distribution.     

A sparse matrix method for renal models

A sparse matrix method for the numerical solution of nonlinear differential equations arising in modeling of the renal concentrating mechanism is given. The method involves a renumbering of the variables and equations such that the resulting Jacobian matrix has a block tridiagonal structure and the blocks above and below the main diagonal have a known set of complementary nonzero columns. The computer storage for the method is O(n). Results of some numerical experiments showing the stability of the method are given.     

Parameters adaptation in the populations models

Ecology-evolutionary models of low dimensions were developed on the basis of competitive selection criteria. Dynamics of variables (number of individuals) and the search of evolutionary-stable values of parameters (biological characterictics of populations) were monitored in the suggested models. If the environmental temperature is changing periodically, the average (a) and width (d) of temperature tolerance range appears to be the important parameters. By model experiments it was established that stable values of temperature (a), favorable for development of highly specialized algae (d is low) were close to minimum and maximum of temperature curve. And for the low specialized algae (d is high) this values were close to the average temperature of environment. In a similar manner, a set of evolutionally stable parameters (a, d) was established for either of the two interacted populations (competitors and "predator-prey"). The hypotheses concerning it's geometric structure and the process of coevolution is formulated.     

Survival in continuous structured populations models

The extended McKendrick-von Foerster structured population model is employed to derive a nonautonomous ordinary differential equation model of a population. The derivation assumes that the individual life history can be delineated into several physiological stages. We study the persistence of the population when the model is autonomous and base the nonautonomous survival analysis on the autonomous case and a comparison principle. A brief excursion into alternate life history strategies is presented.This work was supported in part by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency under cooperative agreement CR 813353010