Modelling fruit-temperature dynamics within apple tree crowns using virtual plants

Background and Aims

Fruit temperature results from a complex system involving the climate, the tree architecture, the fruit location within the tree crown and the fruit thermal properties. Despite much theoretical and experimental evidence for large differences (up to 10 °C in sunny conditions) between fruit temperature and air temperature, fruit temperature is never used in horticultural studies. A way of modelling fruit-temperature dynamics from climate data is addressed in this work.

Methods

The model is based upon three-dimensional virtual representation of apple trees and links three-dimensional virtual trees with a physical-based fruit-temperature dynamical model. The overall model was assessed by comparing model outputs to field measures of fruit-temperature dynamics.

Key Results

The model was able to simulate both the temperature dynamics at fruit scale, i.e. fruit-temperature gradients and departure from air temperature, and at the tree scale, i.e. the within-tree-crown variability in fruit temperature (average root mean square error value over fruits was 1·43 °C).

Conclusions

This study shows that linking virtual plants with the modelling of the physical plant environment offers a relevant framework to address the modelling of fruit-temperature dynamics within a tree canopy. The proposed model offers opportunities for modelling effects of the within-crown architecture on fruit thermal responses in horticultural studies.     

Oviposition-Stimulant and Ovicidal Activities of Moringa oleifera Lectin on Aedes aegypti

Background

Natural insecticides against the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti have been the object of research due to their high level of eco-safety. The water-soluble Moringa oleifera lectin (WSMoL) is a larvicidal agent against A. aegypti. This work reports the effects of WSMoL on oviposition and egg hatching of A. aegypti.

Methodology/Principal Findings

WSMoL crude preparations (seed extract and 0–60 protein fraction), at 0.1 mg/mL protein concentration, did not affect oviposition, while A. aegypti gravid females laid their eggs preferentially (73%) in vessels containing isolated WSMoL (0.1 mg/mL), compared with vessels containing only distilled water (control). Volatile compounds were not detected in WSMoL preparation. The hatchability of fresh eggs deposited in the solutions in the oviposition assay was evaluated. The numbers of hatched larvae in seed extract, 0–60 protein fraction and WSMoL were 45±8.7 %, 20±11 % and 55±7.5 %, respectively, significantly (p<0.05) lower than in controls containing only distilled water (75–95%). Embryos were visualized inside fresh control eggs, but not within eggs that were laid and maintained in WSMoL solution. Ovicidal activity was also assessed using stored A. aegypti eggs. The protein concentrations able to reduce the hatching rate by 50% (EC50) were 0.32, 0.16 and 0.1 mg/mL for seed extract, 0–60 protein fraction and WSMoL, respectively. The absence of hatching of stored eggs treated with WSMoL at 0.3 mg/mL (EC99) after transfer to medium without lectin indicates that embryos within the eggs were killed by WSMoL. The reduction in hatching rate of A. aegypti was not linked to decrease in bacteria population.

Conclusions/Significance

WSMoL acted both as a chemical stimulant cue for ovipositing females and ovicidal agent at a given concentration. The oviposition-stimulant and ovicidal activities, combined with the previously reported larvicidal activity, make WSMoL a very interesting candidate in integrated A. aegypti control.     

Oral administration of γ-aminobutyric acid affects heat production in a hot environment in resting humans

Background

Central administration of γ-amino butyric acid (GABA) induces lower body temperature in animals in hot ambient air. However, it is still unknown whether oral GABA administration affects temperature regulation at rest in a hot environment in humans. Therefore, in the present study, we specifically hypothesized that systemic administration of GABA in humans would induce hypothermia in a hot environment and that this response would be observed in association with decreased heat production.

Methods

Eight male participants drank a 200-ml sports drink with 1 g of GABA (trial G) or without GABA (trial C), then rested for 30 minutes in a sitting position in a hot environment (ambient air temperature 33°C, relative humidity 50%).

Results

We found that changes in esophageal temperature from before drinking the sports drink were lower in trial G than in trial C (-0.046 ± 0.079°C vs 0.001 ± 0.063°C; P < 0.05), with lower heat production calculated by oxygen consumption (41 ± 5 W/m² vs 47 ± 8 W/m²; P < 0.05).

Conclusions

In this study, we have demonstrated that a single oral administration of GABA induced a larger decrease in body core temperature compared to a control condition during rest in a hot environment and that this response was concomitant with a decrease in total heat production.     

Short term effects of weather on hand, foot and mouth disease

Background

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) outbreaks leading to clinical and fatal complications have increased since late 1990s; especially in the Asia Pacific Region. Outbreaks of HFMD peaks in the warmer season of the year, but the underlying factors for this annual pattern and the reasons to the recent upsurge trend have not yet been established. This study analyzed the effect of short-term changes in weather on the incidence of HFMD in Singapore.

Methods

The relative risks between weekly HFMD cases and temperature and rainfall were estimated for the period 2001–2008 using time series Poisson regression models allowing for over-dispersion. Smoothing was used to allow non-linear relationship between weather and weekly HFMD cases, and to adjust for seasonality and long-term time trend. Additionally, autocorrelation was controlled and weather was allowed to have a lagged effect on HFMD incidence up to 2 weeks.

Results

Weekly temperature and rainfall showed statistically significant association with HFMD incidence at time lag of 1–2 weeks. Every 1°C increases in maximum temperature above 32°C elevated the risk of HFMD incidence by 36% (95% CI = 1.341–1.389). Simultaneously, one mm increase of weekly cumulative rainfall below 75 mm increased the risk of HFMD by 0.3% (CI = 1.002–1.003). While above 75 mm the effect was opposite and each mm increases of rainfall decreased the incidence by 0.5% (CI = 0.995–0.996). We also found that a difference between minimum and maximum temperature greater than 7°C elevated the risk of HFMD by 41% (CI = 1.388–1.439).

Conclusion

Our findings suggest a strong association between HFMD and weather. However, the exact reason for the association is yet to be studied. Information on maximum temperature above 32°C and moderate rainfall precede HFMD incidence could help to control and curb the up-surging trend of HFMD.     

Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics

Background

Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia), and to provide an early warning system.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March–April) lagged the warmest temperature by 1–2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January–February–March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October–November–December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was also crucial. An operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the outbreak risk was successfully developed. Similar models may be developed to improve dengue management in other countries.     

Climatic factors driving invasion of the tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) into new areas of Trentino, northern Italy

Background

The tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus), vector of several emerging diseases, is expanding into more northerly latitudes as well as into higher altitudes in northern Italy. Changes in the pattern of distribution of the tiger mosquito may affect the potential spread of infectious diseases transmitted by this species in Europe. Therefore, predicting suitable areas of future establishment and spread is essential for planning early prevention and control strategies.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To identify the areas currently most suitable for the occurrence of the tiger mosquito in the Province of Trento, we combined field entomological observations with analyses of satellite temperature data (MODIS Land Surface Temperature: LST) and human population data. We determine threshold conditions for the survival of overwintering eggs and for adult survival using both January mean temperatures and annual mean temperatures. We show that the 0°C LST threshold for January mean temperatures and the 11°C threshold for annual mean temperatures provide the best predictors for identifying the areas that could potentially support populations of this mosquito. In fact, human population density and distance to human settlements appear to be less important variables affecting mosquito distribution in this area. Finally, we evaluated the future establishment and spread of this species in relation to predicted climate warming by considering the A2 scenario for 2050 statistically downscaled at regional level in which winter and annual temperatures increase by 1.5 and 1°C, respectively.

Conclusions/Significance

MODIS satellite LST data are useful for accurately predicting potential areas of tiger mosquito distribution and for revealing the range limits of this species in mountainous areas, predictions which could be extended to an European scale. We show that the observed trend of increasing temperatures due to climate change could facilitate further invasion of Ae. albopictus into new areas.     

Turning up the Heat: Increasing Temperature and Coral Bleaching at the High Latitude Coral Reefs of the Houtman Abrolhos Islands

Background

Coral reefs face increasing pressures particularly when on the edge of their distributions. The Houtman Abrolhos Islands (Abrolhos) are the southernmost coral reef system in the Indian Ocean, and one of the highest latitude reefs in the world. These reefs have a unique mix of tropical and temperate marine fauna and flora and support 184 species of coral, dominated by Acropora species. A significant La Niña event during 2011 produced anomalous conditions of increased temperature along the whole Western Australian coastline, producing the first-recorded widespread bleaching of corals at the Abrolhos.

Methodology/ Principal Findings

We examined long term trends in the marine climate at the Abrolhos using historical sea surface temperature data (HadISST data set) from 1900–2011. In addition in situ water temperature data for the Abrolhos (from data loggers installed in 2008, across four island groups) were used to determine temperature exposure profiles. Coupled with the results of coral cover surveys conducted annually since 2007; we calculated bleaching thresholds for monitoring sites across the four Abrolhos groups.

Conclusions/ Significance

In situ temperature data revealed maximum daily water temperatures reached 29.54°C in March 2011 which is 4.2°C above mean maximum daily temperatures (2008–2010). The level of bleaching varied across sites with an average of ∼12% of corals bleached. Mortality was high, with a mean ∼50% following the 2011 bleaching event. Prior to 2011, summer temperatures reached a mean (across all monitoring sites) of 25.1°C for 2.5 days. However, in 2011 temperatures reached a mean of 28.1°C for 3.3 days. Longer term trends (1900–2011) showed mean annual sea surface temperatures increase by 0.01°C per annum. Long-term temperature data along with short-term peaks in 2011, outline the potential for corals to be exposed to more frequent bleaching risk with consequences for this high latitude coral reef system at the edge of its distribution.     

Germination responses to temperature and water potential in Jatropha curcas seeds: a hydrotime model explains the difference between dormancy expression and dormancy induction at different incubation temperatures

Background and Aims

Jatropha curcas is a drought-resistant tree whose seeds are a good source of oil that can be used for producing biodiesel. A successful crop establishment depends on a rapid and uniform germination of the seed. In this work we aimed to characterize the responses of J. curcas seeds to temperature and water availability, using thermal time and hydrotime analysis,

Methods

Thermal and hydrotime analysis was performed on germination data obtained from the incubation of seeds at different temperatures and at different water potentials.

Key Results

Base and optimum temperatures were 14·4 and 30 °C, respectively. Approximately 20 % of the seed population displayed absolute dormancy and part of it displayed relative dormancy which was progressively expressed in further fractions when incubation temperatures departed from 25 °C. The thermal time model, but not the hydrotime model, failed to describe adequately final germination percentages at temperatures other than 25 °C. The hydrotime constant, θ_H, was reduced when the incubation temperature was increased up to 30 °C, the base water potential for 50 % germination,Ψ_b(50), was less negative at 20 and 30 °C than at 25 °C, indicating either expression or induction of dormancy. At 20 °C this less negative Ψ_b(50) explained satisfactorily the germination curves obtained at all water potentials, while at 30 °C it had to be corrected towards even less negative values to match observed curves at water potentials below 0. Hence, Ψ_b(50) appeared to have been further displaced to less negative values as exposure to 30 °C was prolonged by osmoticum. These results suggest expression of dormancy at 20 °C and induction of secondary dormancy above 25 °C. This was confirmed by an experiment showing that inhibition of germination imposed by temperatures higher than 30 °C, but not that imposed at 20 °C, is a permanent effect.

Conclusions

This study revealed (a) the extremely narrow thermal range within which dormancy problems (either through expression or induction of dormancy) may not be encountered; and (b) the high sensitivity displayed by these seeds to water shortage. In addition, this work is the first one in which temperature effects on dormancy expression could be discriminated from those on dormancy induction using a hydrotime analysis.     

Using a model-based framework for analysing genetic diversity during germination and heterotrophic growth of Medicago truncatula

Background and Aims

The framework provided by an emergence model was used: (1) for phenotyping germination and heterotrophic growth of Medicago truncatula in relation to two major environmental factors, temperature and water potential; and (2) to evaluate the extent of genetic differences in emergence-model parameters.

Methods

Eight cultivars and natural accessions of M. trunculata were studied. Germination was recorded from 5 to 30 °C and from 0 to −0·75 MPa, and seedling growth from 10 to 20 °C.

Key Results

Thermal time to reach 50 % germination was very short (15 °Cd) and almost stable between genotypes, while base temperature (2–3 °C) and base water potential for germination (−0·7 to −1·3 MPa) varied between genotypes. Only 35 °Cd after germination were required to reach 30 mm hypocotyl length with significant differences among genotypes. Base temperature for elongation varied from 5·5 to 7·5 °C. Low temperatures induced a general shortening of the seedling, with some genotypes more responsive than others. No relationship with initial seed mass or seed reserve distribution was observed, which might have explained differences between genotypes and the effects of low temperatures.

Conclusions

The study provides a set of reference values for M. trunculata users. The use of the ecophysiological model allows comparison of these values between such non-crop species and other crops. It has enabled phenotypic variability in response to environmental conditions related to the emergence process to be identified. The model will allow simulation of emergence differences between genotypes in a range of environments using these parameter values. Genomic tools available for the model species M. trunculata will make it possible to analyse the genetic and molecular determinants of these differences.Key words: Core collection, emergence, Medicago truncatula, modelling, seed, temperature, water potential     

Three-Dimensional cryoEM Reconstruction of Native LDL Particles to 16? Resolution at Physiological Body Temperature

Background

Low-density lipoprotein (LDL) particles, the major carriers of cholesterol in the human circulation, have a key role in cholesterol physiology and in the development of atherosclerosis. The most prominent structural components in LDL are the core-forming cholesteryl esters (CE) and the particle-encircling single copy of a huge, non-exchangeable protein, the apolipoprotein B-100 (apoB-100). The shape of native LDL particles and the conformation of native apoB-100 on the particles remain incompletely characterized at the physiological human body temperature (37°C).

Methodology/Principal Findings

To study native LDL particles, we applied cryo-electron microscopy to calculate 3D reconstructions of LDL particles in their hydrated state. Images of the particles vitrified at 6°C and 37°C resulted in reconstructions at ∼16 Å resolution at both temperatures. 3D variance map analysis revealed rigid and flexible domains of lipids and apoB-100 at both temperatures. The reconstructions showed less variability at 6°C than at 37°C, which reflected increased order of the core CE molecules, rather than decreased mobility of the apoB-100. Compact molecular packing of the core and order in a lipid-binding domain of apoB-100 were observed at 6°C, but not at 37°C. At 37°C we were able to highlight features in the LDL particles that are not clearly separable in 3D maps at 6°C. Segmentation of apoB-100 density, fitting of lipovitellin X-ray structure, and antibody mapping, jointly revealed the approximate locations of the individual domains of apoB-100 on the surface of native LDL particles.

Conclusions/Significance

Our study provides molecular background for further understanding of the link between structure and function of native LDL particles at physiological body temperature.     

Plant morphometric traits and climate gradients in northern China: a meta-analysis using quadrat and flora data

Background and Aims

The collection of field data on plant traits is time consuming and this makes it difficult to examine changing patterns of traits along large-scale climate gradients. The present study tests whether trait information derived from regional floras can be used in conjunction with pre-existing quadrat data on species presence to derive meaningful relationships between specific morphometric traits and climate.

Methods

Quadrat records were obtained for 867 species in 404 sites from northern China (38–49°N, 82–132°E) together with information on the presence/absence of key traits from floras. Bioclimate parameters for each site were calculated using the BIOME3 model. Principal component analysis and correlation analysis were conducted to determine the most important climate factors. The Akaike Information Criterion was used to select the best relationship between each trait and climate. Canonical correspondence analysis was used to explore the relationships between climate and trait occurrence.

Key Results

The changing abundance of life form, leaf type, phenology, photosynthetic pathway, leaf size and several other morphometric traits are determined by gradients in plant-available moisture (as measured by the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration: α), growing-season temperature (as measured by growing degree-days on a 0 ° base: GDD₀) or a combination of these. Different plant functional types (PFTs, as defined by life form, leaf type and phenology) reach maximum abundance in distinct areas of this climate space: for example, evergreen trees occur in the coldest, wettest environments (GDD₀ < 2500 °Cd, α > 0·38), and deciduous scale-leaved trees occur in drier, warmer environments than deciduous broad-leaved trees. Most leaf-level traits show similar relationships with climate independently of PFT: for example, leaf size in all PFTs increases as the environment becomes wetter and cooler. However, some traits (e.g. petiole length) display different relationships with climate in different PFTs.

Conclusions

Based on presence/absence species data and flora-based trait assignments, the present study demonstrates ecologically plausible trends in the occurrence of key plant traits along climate gradients in northern China. Life form, leaf type, phenology, photosynthetic pathway, leaf size and other key traits reflect climate. The success of these analyses opens the possibility of using quadrat- and flora-based trait analyses to examine climate–trait relationships in other regions of the world.     

Pushed to the limit: consequences of climate change for the Araucariaceae: a relictual rain forest family

Background and Aims

Under predicted climate change scenarios, increased temperatures are likely to predispose trees to leaf and other tissue damage, resulting in plant death and contraction of already narrow distribution ranges in many relictual species. The effects of predicted upward temperatures may be further exacerbated by changes in rainfall patterns and damage caused by frosts on trees that have been insufficiently cold-hardened. The Araucariaceae is a relictual family and the seven species found in Australia have limited natural distributions characterized by low frost intensity and frequency, and warm summer temperatures. The temperature limits for these species were determined in order to help understand how such species will fare in a changing climate.

Methods

Experiments were conducted using samples from representative trees of the Araucariaceae species occurring in Australia, Agathis (A. atropurpurea, A. microstachya and A. robusta), Arauacaria (A. bidwilli, A. cunninghamii and A. heterophylla) and Wollemia nobilis. Samples were collected from plants grown in a common garden environment. Lower and higher temperature limits were determined by subjecting detached winter-hardened leaves to temperatures from 0 to –17 °C and summer-exposed leaves to 25 to 63 °C, then measuring the efficiency of photosystem II (F_v/F_m) and visually rating leaf damage. The exotherm, a sharp rise in temperature indicating the point of ice nucleation within the cells of the leaf, was measured on detached leaves of winter-hardened and summer temperature-exposed leaves.

Key Results

Lower temperature limits (indicated by FT₅₀, the temperature at which PSII efficiency is 50 %, and LT₅₀ the temperature at which 50 % visual leaf damage occurred) were approx. –5·5 to –7·5 °C for A. atropurpurea, A. microstachya and A. heterophylla, approx. –7 to –9 °C for A. robusta, A. bidwillii and A. cunninghamii, and –10·5 to –11 °C for W. nobilis. High temperature damage began at 47·5 °C for W. nobilis, and occurred in the range 48·5–52 °C for A. bidwillii and A. cunninghamii, and in the range 50·5–53·5 °C for A. robusta, A. microstachya and A. heterophylla. Winter-hardened leaves had ice nucleation temperatures of –5·5 °C or lower, with W. nobilis the lowest at –6·8 °C. All species had significantly higher ice nucleation temperatures in summer, with A. atropurpurea and A. heterophylla forming ice in the leaf at temperatures >3 °C higher in summer than in winter. Wollemia nobilis had lower FT₅₀ and LT₅₀ values than its ice nucleation temperature, indicating that the species has a degree of ice tolerance.

Conclusions

While lower temperature limits in the Australian Araucariaceae are generally unlikely to affect their survival in wild populations during normal winters, unseasonal frosts may have devastating effects on tree survival. Extreme high temperatures are not common in the areas of natural occurrence, but upward temperature shifts, in combination with localized radiant heating, may increase the heat experienced within a canopy by at least 10 °C and impact on tree survival, and may contribute to range contraction. Heat stress may explain why many landscape plantings of W. nobilis have failed in hotter areas of Australia.     

The effect of sample handling on cross sectional HIV incidence testing results

Objective(s)

To determine if mishandling prior to testing would make a sample from a chronically infected subject appear recently infected when tested by cross-sectional HIV incidence assays.

Methods

Serum samples from 31 subjects with chronic HIV infection were tested. Samples were subjected to different handling conditions, including incubation at 4°C, 25°C and 37°C, for 1, 3, 7 or 15 days prior to testing. Samples were also subjected to 1,3, 7 and 15 freeze-thaw cycles prior to testing. Samples were tested using the BED capture enzyme immuno assay (BED-CEIA), Vironostika-less sensitive (V-LS), and an avidity assay using the Genetic Systems HIV-1/HIV-2 plus O EIA (avidity assay).

Results

Compared to the sample that was not subjected to any mishandling conditions, for the BED-CEIA, V-LS and avidity assay, there was no significant change in test results for samples incubated at 4°C or 25°C prior to testing. No impact on test results occurred after 15 freeze-thaw cycles. A decrease in assay results was observed when samples were held for 3 days or longer at 37°C prior to testing.

Conclusions

Samples can be subjected up to 15 freeze-thaw cycles without affecting the results the BED-CEIA, Vironostika-LS, or avidity assays. Storing samples at 4°C or 25°C for up to fifteen days prior to testing had no impact on test results. However, storing samples at 37°C for three or more days did affect results obtained with these assays.     

Temperature-dependence of Weibel-Palade body exocytosis and cell surface dispersal of von Willebrand factor and its propolypeptide

Background

Weibel-Palade bodies (WPB) are endothelial cell (EC) specific secretory organelles containing Von Willebrand factor (VWF). The temperature-dependence of Ca²⁺-driven WPB exocytosis is not known, although indirect evidence suggests that WPB exocytosis may occur at very low temperatures. Here we quantitatively analyse the temperature-dependence of Ca²⁺-driven WPB exocytosis and release of secreted VWF from the cell surface of ECs using fluorescence microscopy of cultured human ECs containing fluorescent WPBs.

Principal Findings

Ca²⁺-driven WPB exocytosis occurred at all temperatures studied (7–37°C). The kinetics and extent of WPB exocytosis were strongly temperature-dependent: Delays in exocytosis increased from 0.92 s at 37°C to 134.2 s at 7°C, the maximum rate of WPB fusion decreased from 10.0±2.2 s⁻¹ (37°C) to 0.80±0.14 s⁻¹ (7°C) and the fractional extent of degranulation of WPBs in each cell from 67±3% (37°C) to 3.6±1.3% (7°C). A discrepancy was found between the reduction in Ca²⁺-driven VWF secretion and WPB exocytosis at reduced temperature; at 17°C VWF secretion was reduced by 95% but WPB exocytosis by 75–80%. This discrepancy arises because VWF dispersal from sites of WPB exocytosis is largely prevented at low temperature. In contrast VWF-propolypeptide (proregion) dispersal from WPBs, although slowed, was complete within 60–120 s. Novel antibodies to the cleaved and processed proregion were characterised and used to show that secreted proregion more accurately reports the secretion of WPBs at sub-physiological temperatures than assay of VWF itself.

Conclusions

We report the first quantitative analysis of the temperature-dependence of WPB exocytosis. We provide evidence; by comparison of biochemical data for VWF or proregion secretion with direct analysis of WPB exocytosis at reduced temperature, that proregion is a more reliable marker for WPB exocytosis at reduced temperature, where VWF-EC adhesion is increased.     

Thermal image scanning for influenza border screening: results of an airport screening study

Background

Infrared thermal image scanners (ITIS) appear an attractive option for the mass screening of travellers for influenza, but there are no published data on their performance in airports.

Methods

ITIS was used to measure cutaneous temperature in 1275 airline travellers who had agreed to tympanic temperature measurement and respiratory sampling. The prediction by ITIS of tympanic temperature (37.8°C and 37.5°C) and of influenza infection was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and estimated sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value (PPV).

Findings

Using front of face ITIS for prediction of tympanic temperature ≥37.8°C, the area under the ROC curve was 0.86 (95%CI 0.75–0.97) and setting sensitivity at 86% gave specificity of 71%. The PPV in this population of travellers, of whom 0.5% were febrile using this definition, was 1.5%. We identified influenza virus infection in 30 travellers (3 Type A and 27 Type B). For ITIS prediction of influenza infection the area under the ROC curve was 0.66 (0.56–0.75), a sensitivity of 87% gave specificity of 39%, and PPV of 2.8%. None of the 30 influenza-positive travellers had tympanic temperature ≥37.8°C at screening (95%CI 0% to 12%); three had no influenza symptoms.

Conclusion

ITIS performed moderately well in detecting fever but in this study, during a seasonal epidemic of predominantly influenza type B, the proportion of influenza-infected travellers who were febrile was low and ITIS were not much better than chance at identifying travellers likely to be influenza-infected. Although febrile illness is more common in influenza A infections than influenza B infections, many influenza A infections are afebrile. Our findings therefore suggest that ITIS is unlikely to be effective for entry screening of travellers to detect influenza infection with the intention of preventing entry of the virus into a country.     

Apparent temperature and air pollution vs. elderly population mortality in Metro Vancouver

Background

Meteorological conditions and air pollution in urban environments have been associated with general population and elderly mortality, showing seasonal variation.

Objectives

This study is designed to evaluate the relationship between apparent temperature (AT) and air pollution (PM_2.5) vs. mortality in elderly population of Metro Vancouver.

Methods

Statistical analyses are performed on moving sum daily mortality rates vs. moving average AT and PM_2.5 in 1-, 2-, 3-, 5-, and 7-day models for all seasons, warm temperatures above 15°C, and cold temperatures below 10°C.

Results

Approximately 37% of the variation in all-season mortality from circulatory and respiratory causes can be explained by the variation in 7-day moving average apparent temperature (r² = 0.37, p<0.001). Although the analytical results from air pollution models show increasingly better prediction ability of longer time-intervals (r² = 0.012, p<0.001 in a 7-day model), a very weak negative association between elderly mortality and air pollution is observed.

Conclusions

Apparent temperature is associated with mortality from respiratory and circulatory causes in elderly population of Metro Vancouver. In a changing climate, one may anticipate to observe potential health impacts from the projected high- and particularly from the low-temperature extremes.     

A large change in temperature between neighbouring days increases the risk of mortality

Background

Previous studies have found high temperatures increase the risk of mortality in summer. However, little is known about whether a sharp decrease or increase in temperature between neighbouring days has any effect on mortality.

Method

Poisson regression models were used to estimate the association between temperature change and mortality in summer in Brisbane, Australia during 1996–2004 and Los Angeles, United States during 1987–2000. The temperature change was calculated as the current day''s mean temperature minus the previous day''s mean.

Results

In Brisbane, a drop of more than 3°C in temperature between days was associated with relative risks (RRs) of 1.157 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.024, 1.307) for total non-external mortality (NEM), 1.186 (95%CI: 1.002, 1.405) for NEM in females, and 1.442 (95%CI: 1.099, 1.892) for people aged 65–74 years. An increase of more than 3°C was associated with RRs of 1.353 (95%CI: 1.033, 1.772) for cardiovascular mortality and 1.667 (95%CI: 1.146, 2.425) for people aged <65 years. In Los Angeles, only a drop of more than 3°C was significantly associated with RRs of 1.133 (95%CI: 1.053, 1.219) for total NEM, 1.252 (95%CI: 1.131, 1.386) for cardiovascular mortality, and 1.254 (95%CI: 1.135, 1.385) for people aged ≥75 years. In both cities, there were joint effects of temperature change and mean temperature on NEM.

Conclusion

A significant change in temperature of more than 3°C, whether positive or negative, has an adverse impact on mortality even after controlling for the current temperature.     

Simulating the influence of vernalization, photoperiod and optimum temperature on wheat developmental rates

Background and Aims

Accurately representing development is essential for applying crop simulations to investigate the effects of climate, genotypes or crop management. Development in wheat (Triticum aestivum, T. durum) is primarily driven by temperature, but affected by vernalization and photoperiod, and is often simulated by reducing thermal-time accumulation using vernalization or photoperiod factors or limiting accumulation when a lower optimum temperature (T_optl) is exceeded. In this study T_optl and methods for representing effects of vernalization and photoperiod on anthesis were examined using a range of planting dates and genotypes.

Methods

An examination was made of T_optl values of 15, 20, 25 and 50 °C, and either the most limiting or the multiplicative value of the vernalization and photoperiod development rate factors for simulating anthesis. Field data were from replicated trials at Ludhiana, Punjab, India with July through to December planting dates and seven cultivars varying in vernalization response.

Key Results

Simulations of anthesis were similar for T_optl values of 20, 25 and 50 °C, but a T_optl of 15 °C resulted in a consistent bias towards predicting anthesis late for early planting dates. Results for T_optl above 15 °C may have occurred because mean temperatures rarely exceeded 20 °C before anthesis for many planting dates. For cultivars having a strong vernalization response, anthesis was more accurately simulated when vernalization and photoperiod factors were multiplied rather than using the most limiting of the two factors.

Conclusions

Setting T_optl to a high value (30 °C) and multiplying the vernalization and photoperiod factors resulted in accurately simulating anthesis for a wide range of planting dates and genotypes. However, for environments where average temperatures exceed 20 °C for much of the pre-anthesis period, a lower T_optl (23 °C) might be appropriate. These results highlight the value of testing a model over a wide range of environments.Key words: Wheat, Triticum aestivum, T. durum, air temperature, thermal time, shoot apex, phenology, growth stages, anthesis, flowering     

Hyperthermia induces the ER stress pathway

Background

The ER chaperone GRP78/BiP is a homolog of the Hsp70 family of heat shock proteins, yet GRP78/BiP is not induced by heat shock but instead by ER stress. However, previous studies had not considered more physiologically relevant temperature elevation associated with febrile hyperthermia. In this report we examine the response of GRP78/BiP and other components of the ER stress pathway in cells exposed to 40°C.

Methodology

AD293 cells were exposed to 43°C heat shock to confirm inhibition of the ER stress response genes. Five mammalian cell types, including AD293 cells, were then exposed to 40°C hyperthermia for various time periods and induction of the ER stress pathway was assessed.

Principal Findings

The inhibition of the ER stress pathway by heat shock (43°C) was confirmed. In contrast cells subjected to more mild temperature elevation (40°C) showed either a partial or full ER stress pathway induction as determined by downstream targets of the three arms of the ER stress pathway as well as a heat shock response. Cells deficient for Perk or Gcn2 exhibit great sensitivity to ER stress induction by hyperthermia.

Conclusions

The ER stress pathway is induced partially or fully as a consequence of hyperthermia in parallel with induction of Hsp70. These findings suggest that the ER and cytoplasm of cells contain parallel pathways to coordinately regulate adaptation to febrile hyperthermia associated with disease or infection.