Scale‐dependent variation in visual estimates of grassland plant cover

Abstract. Plant cover was visually estimated by five observers, independent of each other, in a species‐rich grassland in the Bílé Karpaty Mts., southeastern Czech Republic, in seven plots ranging from 0.001 to 4 m². Variation of total plant cover among the observers was high at small scales: 0.001–0.016 m²; coefficient of variation, CV = 35 to 45%, but much lower at larger scales: 0.06–4 m²; CV = 7 to 15%. Differences between visual estimates of plant cover of individual species made by different observers were affected by plot size, total cover and morphology of particular plants. CV of the cover of individual species ranged from 0 to 225% and decreased with increasing plot size. For abundant plants the CV attained ca. 50%, independent of plot size. In spite of a very high number of sterile plants with similar leaf morphology and colour, the observed variation in cover estimates in the studied grassland was comparable with results reported from other vegetation types. Differences between estimates by individual observers were often larger than usual year to year changes in undisturbed grasslands. Therefore, I suggest that to avoid difficulties in the interpretation of results based on plant cover data obtained from visual estimates, several observers should always work together, adjusting their extreme estimates.     

Audio-Visual Speech Cue Combination

Background

Different sources of sensory information can interact, often shaping what we think we have seen or heard. This can enhance the precision of perceptual decisions relative to those made on the basis of a single source of information. From a computational perspective, there are multiple reasons why this might happen, and each predicts a different degree of enhanced precision. Relatively slight improvements can arise when perceptual decisions are made on the basis of multiple independent sensory estimates, as opposed to just one. These improvements can arise as a consequence of probability summation. Greater improvements can occur if two initially independent estimates are summated to form a single integrated code, especially if the summation is weighted in accordance with the variance associated with each independent estimate. This form of combination is often described as a Bayesian maximum likelihood estimate. Still greater improvements are possible if the two sources of information are encoded via a common physiological process.

Principal Findings

Here we show that the provision of simultaneous audio and visual speech cues can result in substantial sensitivity improvements, relative to single sensory modality based decisions. The magnitude of the improvements is greater than can be predicted on the basis of either a Bayesian maximum likelihood estimate or a probability summation.

Conclusion

Our data suggest that primary estimates of speech content are determined by a physiological process that takes input from both visual and auditory processing, resulting in greater sensitivity than would be possible if initially independent audio and visual estimates were formed and then subsequently combined.     

A sightability model for correcting visibility and availability biases in standardized surveys of breeding burrowing owls in southwest agroecosystem environments

Unbiased estimates of burrowing owl populations (Athene cunicularia) are essential to achieving diverse management and conservation objectives. We conducted visibility trials and developed logistic regression models to identify and correct for visibility bias associated with single, vehicle-based, visual survey occasions of breeding male owls during daylight hours in an agricultural landscape in California between 30 April and 2 May 2007. Visibility was predicted best by a second-degree polynomial function of time of day and 7 categorical perch types. Probability of being visible was highest in the afternoon, and individuals that flushed, flew, or perched on hay bales were highly visible (>0.85). Visibility was lowest in agricultural fields (<0.46) and nonagricultural vegetation (<0.77). We used the results from this model to compute unbiased maximum likelihood estimates of visibility bias, and combined these with estimated probabilities of availability bias to validate our model by correcting for visibility and availability biases in 4 independent datasets collected during morning hours. Correcting for both biases produced reliable estimates of abundance in all 4 independent validation datasets. We recommend that estimates of burrowing owl abundance from surveys in the southwest United States correct for both visibility and availability biases. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

How reliable is the monitoring of permanent vegetation plots? A test with multiple observers

Questions: A multiple plot design was developed for permanent vegetation plots. How reliable are the different methods used in this design and which changes can we measure? Location: Alpine meadows (2430 m a.s.l.) in the Swiss Alps. Methods: Four inventories were obtained from 40 m² plots: four subplots (0.4 m²) with a list of species, two 10m transects with the point method (50 points on each), one subplot (4m²) with a list of species and visual cover estimates as a percentage and the complete plot (40 m²) with a list of species and visual estimates in classes. This design was tested by five to seven experienced botanists in three plots. Results: Whatever the sampling size, only 45‐63% of the species were seen by all the observers. However, the majority of the overlooked species had cover < 0.1%. Pairs of observers overlooked 10‐20% less species than single observers. The point method was the best method for cover estimate, but it took much longer than visual cover estimates, and 100 points allowed for the monitoring of only a very limited number of species. The visual estimate as a percentage was more precise than classes. Working in pairs did not improve the estimates, but one botanist repeating the survey is more reliable than a succession of different observers. Conclusion: Lists of species are insufficient for monitoring. It is necessary to add cover estimates to allow for subsequent interpretations in spite of the overlooked species. The choice of the method depends on the available resources: the point method is time consuming but gives precise data for a limited number of species, while visual estimates are quick but allow for recording only large changes in cover. Constant pairs of observers improve the reliability of the records.     

Converting visual census data into absolute abundance estimates: a method for calibrating timed counts of a sedentary insect population

Abstract.  1. Visual surveys for small organisms on complex substrates often yield serious underestimates of true counts. When both visual counts (relative estimates of abundance) and absolute counts can be obtained from the same sample, however, the visual counts can be calibrated such that absolute estimates can be obtained in the future from visual surveys alone.
2. A method is presented for converting quick, timed, visual counts of a sedentary insect on a shrub into absolute estimates of abundance.
3. Analogies were drawn from simple, well-known predation theories to develop a two-parameter non-linear model. Parameter estimates were obtained by both inverse prediction and direct estimation methods; the latter were found to yield more accurate predictions of absolute abundance.
4. The calibration model is mechanistic in its approach, and thus has potential for application in other systems in which all individuals are visible, but able to be missed during timed counts.     

Saliency predicts change detection in pictures of natural scenes

It has been proposed that the visual system encodes the salience of objects in the visual field in an explicit two-dimensional map that guides visual selective attention. Experiments were conducted to determine whether salience measurements applied to regions of pictures of outdoor scenes could predict the detection of changes in those regions. To obtain a quantitative measure of change detection, observers located changes in pairs of colour pictures presented across an interstimulus interval (ISI). Salience measurements were then obtained from different observers for image change regions using three independent methods, and all were positively correlated with change detection. Factor analysis extracted a single saliency factor that accounted for 62% of the variance contained in the four measures. Finally, estimates of the magnitude of the image change in each picture pair were obtained, using nine separate visual filters representing low-level vision features (luminance, colour, spatial frequency, orientation, edge density). None of the feature outputs was significantly associated with change detection or saliency. On the other hand it was shown that high-level (structural) properties of the changed region were related to saliency and to change detection: objects were more salient than shadows and more detectable when changed.     

An evaluation of rapid methods for monitoring vegetation characteristics of wetland bird habitat

Wetland managers benefit from monitoring data of sufficient precision and accuracy to assess wildlife habitat conditions and to evaluate and learn from past management decisions. For large-scale monitoring programs focused on waterbirds (waterfowl, wading birds, secretive marsh birds, and shorebirds), precision and accuracy of habitat measurements must be balanced with fiscal and logistic constraints. We evaluated a set of protocols for rapid, visual estimates of key waterbird habitat characteristics made from the wetland perimeter against estimates from (1) plots sampled within wetlands, and (2) cover maps made from aerial photographs. Estimated percent cover of annuals and perennials using a perimeter-based protocol fell within 10 percent of plot-based estimates, and percent cover estimates for seven vegetation height classes were within 20 % of plot-based estimates. Perimeter-based estimates of total emergent vegetation cover did not differ significantly from cover map estimates. Post-hoc analyses revealed evidence for observer effects in estimates of annual and perennial covers and vegetation height. Median time required to complete perimeter-based methods was less than 7 percent of the time needed for intensive plot-based methods. Our results show that rapid, perimeter-based assessments, which increase sample size and efficiency, provide vegetation estimates comparable to more intensive methods.     

Calibration of visually estimated distances to migrating seabirds with radar measurements

ABSTRACT Censusing seabirds from coastal areas requires reliable estimates of bird numbers and the distances of the birds from the coastline. Logistical constraints make visual estimation of distances the only feasible method in many studies. We tested the accuracy of visually estimated offshore distances of six migratory seabird species in the Strait of Gibraltar using simultaneous measurements obtained by radar. Most birds (91%) were detected within 3 km of the coast and we truncated our calibration at this distance. We found a strong correlation between radar and visual estimates (R²= 0.83, P < 0.0001). The magnitude of errors in visual estimates was moderate and ranged from 0.08 to 0.20 for different distances and observers. Among the factors potentially affecting the accuracy of visual estimates of distance to seabird in our study were observer identity, bird species, bird behavior, and weather; the most parsimonious model in our study included observer identity as the only predictor, and no model with more than one predictor had a smaller Akaike's information criterion value. Radar can be used to help train observers and to reduce biases in visual estimates of distances by means of calibration. When no other methods are available to accurately measure distances to seabirds, visual estimates of distances, recorded by experienced observers and once calibrated with radar (or other ground‐truthing methods), may be acceptable for different species under a wide range of environmental conditions.     

Molecular characterization of Hepatozoon species in reptiles from the Seychelles

Hepatozoon parasites were examined for the first time in reptiles from the Seychelles Islands. Although both prevalence and intensity were low, Hepatozoon species were detected in individuals from 2 endemic species, the lizard Mabuya wrightii and the snake Lycognathophis seychellensis. This was confirmed using visual identification and through sequencing part of the 18s rRNA gene. Phylogenetic analysis indicates that the Hepatozoon on the Seychelles form a monophyletic lineage, although more data are clearly needed to stabilize estimates of relationships based on this marker.     

Temporal variation in arthropod sampling effectiveness: the case for using the beat sheet method in cotton

Predatory insects and spiders are key elements of integrated pest management (IPM) programmes in agricultural crops such as cotton. Management decisions in IPM programmes should to be based on a reliable and efficient method for counting both predators and pests. Knowledge of the temporal constraints that influence sampling is required because arthropod abundance estimates are likely to vary over a growing season and within a day. Few studies have adequately quantified this effect using the beat sheet, a potentially important sampling method. We compared the commonly used methods of suction and visual sampling to the beat sheet, with reference to an absolute cage clamp method for determining the abundance of various arthropod taxa over 5 weeks. There were significantly more entomophagous arthropods recorded using the beat sheet and cage clamp methods than by using suction or visual sampling, and these differences were more pronounced as the plants grew. In a second trial, relative estimates of entomophagous and phytophagous arthropod abundance were made using beat sheet samples collected over a day. Beat sheet estimates of the abundance of only eight of the 43 taxa examined were found to vary significantly over a day. Beat sheet sampling is recommended in further studies of arthropod abundance in cotton, but researchers and pest management advisors should bear in mind the time of season and time of day effects.     

Methods for monitoring herbivory and growth of New Zealand mistletoes (Loranthaceae)

This study provides the first quantitative comparison of methods for monitoring herbivory and growth of New Zealand beech mistletoes (Alepis flavida, Peraxilla colensoi and Peraxilla tetrapetala). Four monitoring methods-leaf maps, volume estimates visual estimates of browse and foliage density, and rePeat fixed-point photographs-were used to assess the health of 60 permanently tagged mistletoe plants in four South Island beech forests between February 1997 and February 1998. Leaf maps provided the most detailed information but were extremely labour-intensive so could only be used to monitor a small number of plants. Photographs were much faster to use, and the results corresponded well to leaf map data, but A. flavida could not be photographed because it was frequently hidden by host foliage. Visual scoring methods and volume measurements did not correlate well with leaf maps, probably because leaf loss and growth were not obvious without images of plants from previous seasons. Thus, photographs can provide valuable reference points for future evaluation of plant condition. However, because photos require more time and money than visual scoring and can only be used on a subset of the population, their most practical use is as a supplement to visual scoring.     

Precision and accuracy of divergence time estimates from STR and SNPSTR variation

Inference of intraspecific population divergence patterns typically requires genetic data for molecular markers with relatively high mutation rates. Microsatellites, or short tandem repeat (STR) polymorphisms, have proven informative in many such investigations. These markers are characterized, however, by high levels of homoplasy and varying mutational properties, often leading to inaccurate inference of population divergence. A SNPSTR is a genetic system that consists of an STR polymorphism closely linked (typically < 500 bp) to one or more single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). SNPSTR systems are characterized by lower levels of homoplasy than are STR loci. Divergence time estimates based on STR variation (on the derived SNP allele background) should, therefore, be more accurate and precise. We use coalescent-based simulations in the context of several models of demographic history to compare divergence time estimates based on SNPSTR haplotype frequencies and STR allele frequencies. We demonstrate that estimates of divergence time based on STR variation on the background of a derived SNP allele are more accurate (3% to 7% bias for SNPSTR versus 11% to 20% bias for STR) and more precise than STR-based estimates, conditional on a recent SNP mutation. These results hold even for models involving complex demographic scenarios with gene flow, population expansion, and population bottlenecks. Varying the timing of the mutation event generating the SNP revealed that estimates of divergence time are sensitive to SNP age, with more recent SNPs giving more accurate and precise estimates of divergence time. However, varying both mutational properties of STR loci and SNP age demonstrated that multiple independent SNPSTR systems provide less biased estimates of divergence time. Furthermore, the combination of estimates based separately on STR and SNPSTR variation provides insight into the age of the derived SNP alleles. In light of our simulations, we interpret estimates from data for human populations.     

Viewing geometry determines how vision and haptics combine in size perception

Vision and haptics have different limitations and advantages because they obtain information by different methods. If the brain combined information from the two senses optimally, it would rely more on the one providing more precise information for the current task. In this study, human observers judged the distance between two parallel surfaces in two within-modality experiments (vision-alone and haptics-alone) and in an intermodality experiment (vision and haptics together). In the within-modality experiments, the precision of visual estimates varied with surface orientation, as expected from geometric considerations; the precision of haptic estimates did not. An ideal observer that combines visual and haptic information weights them differently as a function of orientation. In the intermodality experiment, humans adjusted visual and haptic weights in a fashion quite similar to that of the ideal observer. As a result, combined size estimates are finer than is possible with either vision or haptics alone; indeed, they approach statistical optimality.     

Adaptations in humans for assessing physical strength from the voice

Recent research has shown that humans, like many other animals, have a specialization for assessing fighting ability from visual cues. Because it is probable that the voice contains cues of strength and formidability that are not available visually, we predicted that selection has also equipped humans with the ability to estimate physical strength from the voice. We found that subjects accurately assessed upper-body strength in voices taken from eight samples across four distinct populations and language groups: the Tsimane of Bolivia, Andean herder-horticulturalists and United States and Romanian college students. Regardless of whether raters were told to assess height, weight, strength or fighting ability, they produced similar ratings that tracked upper-body strength independent of height and weight. Male voices were more accurately assessed than female voices, which is consistent with ethnographic data showing a greater tendency among males to engage in violent aggression. Raters extracted information about strength from the voice that was not supplied from visual cues, and were accurate with both familiar and unfamiliar languages. These results provide, to our knowledge, the first direct evidence that both men and women can accurately assess men''s physical strength from the voice, and suggest that estimates of strength are used to assess fighting ability.     

Evaluation of three methods to estimate density and detectability from roadside point counts

Roadside point counts are often used to estimate trends of bird populations. The use of aural counts of birds without adjustment for detection probability, however, can lead to incorrect population trend estimates. We compared precision of estimates of density and detectability of whistling northern bobwhites (Colinus virginianus) using distance sampling, independent double-observer, and removal methods from roadside surveys. Two observers independently recorded each whistling bird heard, distance from the observer, and time of first detection at 362 call-count stops in Ohio. We examined models that included covariates for year and observer effects for each method and distance from observer effects for the double-observer and removal methods using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC). The best model of detectability from distance sampling included observer and year effects. The best models from the removal and double-observer techniques included observer and distance effects. All 3 methods provided precise estimates of detection probability (CV = 2.4–4.4%) with a range of detectability of 0.44–0.95 for a 6-min survey. Density estimates from double-observer surveys had the lowest coefficient of variation (2005 = 3.2%, 2006 = 1.7%), but the removal method also provided precise estimates of density (2005 CV = 3.4%, 2006 CV = 4.8%), and density estimates from distance sampling were less precise (2005 CV = 9.6%, 2006 CV = 7.9%). Assumptions of distance sampling were violated in our study because probability of detecting bobwhites near the observer was <1 or the roadside survey points were not randomly distributed with respect to the birds. Distances also were not consistently recorded by individual members of observer pairs. Although double-observer surveys provided more precise estimates, we recommend using the removal method to estimate detectability and abundance of bobwhites. The removal method provided precise estimates of density and detection probability and requires half the personnel time as double-observer surveys. Furthermore, the likelihood of meeting model assumptions is higher for the removal survey than with independent double-observers. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Misleading population estimates: biases and consistency of visual surveys and matrix modelling in the endangered bearded vulture

Conservation strategies for long-lived vertebrates require accurate estimates of parameters relative to the populations' size, numbers of non-breeding individuals (the "cryptic" fraction of the population) and the age structure. Frequently, visual survey techniques are used to make these estimates but the accuracy of these approaches is questionable, mainly because of the existence of numerous potential biases. Here we compare data on population trends and age structure in a bearded vulture (Gypaetus barbatus) population from visual surveys performed at supplementary feeding stations with data derived from population matrix-modelling approximations. Our results suggest that visual surveys overestimate the number of immature (<2 years old) birds, whereas subadults (3-5 y.o.) and adults (>6 y.o.) were underestimated in comparison with the predictions of a population model using a stable-age distribution. In addition, we found that visual surveys did not provide conclusive information on true variations in the size of the focal population. Our results suggest that although long-term studies (i.e. population matrix modelling based on capture-recapture procedures) are a more time-consuming method, they provide more reliable and robust estimates of population parameters needed in designing and applying conservation strategies. The findings shown here are likely transferable to the management and conservation of other long-lived vertebrate populations that share similar life-history traits and ecological requirements.     

Estimation of the Horizon in Photographed Outdoor Scenes by Human and Machine

We present three experiments on horizon estimation. In Experiment 1 we verify the human ability to estimate the horizon in static images from only visual input. Estimates are given without time constraints with emphasis on precision. The resulting estimates are used as baseline to evaluate horizon estimates from early visual processes. Stimuli are presented for only ms and then masked to purge visual short-term memory and enforcing estimates to rely on early processes, only. The high agreement between estimates and the lack of a training effect shows that enough information about viewpoint is extracted in the first few hundred milliseconds to make accurate horizon estimation possible. In Experiment 3 we investigate several strategies to estimate the horizon in the computer and compare human with machine “behavior” for different image manipulations and image scene types.     

ESTIMATING PUP PRODUCTION OF HARP SEALS, PAGOPHILUS GROENLANDICUS, IN THE NORTHWEST ATLANTIC

Photographic and visual aerial surveys to determine current pup production of Northwest Atlantic harp seals were conducted off Newfoundland and in the Gulf of St. Lawrence during March 1999-Photographic surveys were conducted on all whelping concentrations between 14 and 24 March, whereas a visual survey was made of the southern Gulf concentrations on 14 March. Pup production was estimated to be 739,100 (SE = 96,300, CV = 13.0%) at the Front, 82,600 (SE = 22,500, CV = 27.2%) in the northern Gulf, and 176,200 (SE = 25,400, CV = 14.4%) in the southern Gulf (Magdalen Island) for a total of 997,900 (SE = 102,100, 10.2%). Changes in aerial survey estimates indicate that pup production has increased since 1994. A new method to correct for the temporal change in the proportion of pups present on the ice was examined by fitting the percentage of pups observed in three age-dependent stages to a Normal distribution. The results were compared to those obtained from a more complex model used previously. The Simple model produced slightly higher, and hence more conservative, estimates of the proportion of births that had occurred before the time of the survey than the Complex model. When using the Simple model fewer assumptions regarding the start date of pupping and the proportion of older pups remaining on the ice were required, the herd had to be followed for a shorter period, and a more convenient means of calculating confidence limits was available.     

Explaining behavior change after genetic testing: the problem of collinearity between test results and risk estimates

This paper explores whether and how the behavioral impact of genotype disclosure can be disentangled from the impact of numerical risk estimates generated by genetic tests. Secondary data analyses are presented from a randomized controlled trial of 162 first-degree relatives of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients. Each participant received a lifetime risk estimate of AD. Control group estimates were based on age, gender, family history, and assumed epsilon4-negative apolipoprotein E (APOE) genotype; intervention group estimates were based upon the first three variables plus true APOE genotype, which was also disclosed. AD-specific self-reported behavior change (diet, exercise, and medication use) was assessed at 12 months. Behavior change was significantly more likely with increasing risk estimates, and also more likely, but not significantly so, in epsilon4-positive intervention group participants (53% changed behavior) than in control group participants (31%). Intervention group participants receiving epsilon4-negative genotype feedback (24% changed behavior) and control group participants had similar rates of behavior change and risk estimates, the latter allowing assessment of the independent effects of genotype disclosure. However, collinearity between risk estimates and epsilon4-positive genotypes, which engender high-risk estimates, prevented assessment of the independent effect of the disclosure of an epsilon4 genotype. Novel study designs are proposed to determine whether genotype disclosure has an impact upon behavior beyond that of numerical risk estimates.     

Radiographic changes in the clavicle and proximal femur and their use in the determination of skeletal age at death

Visually seriated radiographs of the proximal femur, proximal humerus, clavicle, and calcaneus from 130 individuals from the Hamann-Todd collection were examined as indicators of skeletal age at death. The clavicle demonstrated the most consistent relationship to age in both sexes. The same radiographs were also seriated by size-normalized optical density as a means of establishing relative radiolucency. In this context, visual seriation proved superior. The four sites studied showed strong divergence in response to age. Since each was sampling bone response from the same individual, it is concluded that bone loss is highly site specific. This demonstrates the individual character of specific skeletal sites. Visual inspection of clavicular radiographs, seriated on a populational basis, provides age estimates that are comparable to anatomical age indicators and provides independent estimates of skeletal age when included in the summary age method (1985: Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 68:1–14).