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1.
IntroductionDengue has become a more serious human health concern in China, with increased incidence and expanded outbreak regions. The knowledge of the cross-sectional and longitudinal epidemiological characteristics and the evolutionary dynamics of dengue in high-risk areas of China is limited.MethodsRecords of dengue cases from 2013 to 2016 were obtained from the China Notifiable Disease Surveillance System. Full envelope gene sequences of dengue viruses detected from the high-risk areas of China were collected. Maximum Likelihood tree and haplotype network analyses were conducted to explore the phylogenetic relationship of viruses from high-risk areas of China.ResultsA total of 56,520 cases was reported in China from 2013 to 2016. During this time, Yunnan, Guangdong and Fujian provinces were the high-risk areas. Imported cases occurred almost year-round, and were mainly introduced from Southeast Asia. The first indigenous case usually occurred in June to August, and the last one occurred before December in Yunnan and Fujian provinces but in December in Guangdong Province. Seven genotypes of DENV 1–3 were detected in the high-risk areas, with DENV 1-I the main genotype and DENV 2-Cosmopolitan the secondary one. The Maximum Likelihood trees show that almost all the indigenous viruses separated into different clusters. DENV 1-I viruses were found to be clustered in Guangdong Province, but not in Fujian and Yunnan, from 2013 to 2015. The ancestors of the Guangdong viruses in the cluster in 2013 and 2014 were most closely related to strains from Thailand or Singapore, and the Guangdong virus in 2015 was most closely related to the Guangdong virus of 2014. Based on closest phylogenetic relationships, viruses from Myanmar possibly initiated further indigenous cases in Yunnan, those from Indonesia in Fujian, while viruses from Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Indonesia were predominant in Guangdong Province.ConclusionsDengue is still an imported disease in China, although some genotypes continued to circulate in successive years. Viral phylogenies based on the envelope gene suggested periodic introductions of dengue strains into China, primarily from Southeast Asia, with occasional sustained, multi-year transmission in some regions of China.  相似文献   

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Group A human rotaviruses (RVAs) annually cause the deaths of 215,000 infants and young children. To understand the epidemiological characteristics and genetic evolution of RVAs, we performed sentinel surveillance on RVA prevalence in a rotavirus-surveillance network in Hubei, China. From 2013 to 2016, a total of 2007 fecal samples from hospital outpatients with acute gastroenteritis were collected from four cities of Hubei Province. Of the 2007 samples, 153 (7.62%) were identified positive for RVA by real-time RT-PCR. RVA infection in Hubei mainly occurred in autumn and winter. The highest detection rate of RVA infection was in 1–2 years old of outpatients (16.97%). No significant difference of RVA positive rate was observed between females and males. We performed a phylogenetic analysis of the G/P genotypes based on the partial VP7/VP4 gene sequences of RVAs. G9P[8] was the most predominant strain in all four years but the prevalence of G2P[4] genotype increased rapidly since 2014. We reconstructed the evolutionary time scale of RVAs in Hubei, and found that the evolutionary rates of the G9, G2, P[8], and P[4] genotypes of RVA were 1.069 ​× ​10−3, 1.029 ​× ​10−3, 1.283 ​× ​10−3 and 1.172 ​× ​10−3 nucleotide substitutions/site/year, respectively. Importantly, using a molecular clock model, we showed that most G9, G2, P[8], and P[4] genotype strains dated from the recent ancestor in 2005, 2005, 1993, and 2013, respectively. The finding of the distribution of RVAs in infants and young children in Hubei Province will contribute to the understanding of the epidemiological characteristics and genetic evolution of RVAs in China.  相似文献   

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The Arctic Ocean is undergoing rapid transformation toward a seasonally ice‐free ecosystem. As ice‐adapted apex predators, polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are challenged to cope with ongoing habitat degradation and changes in their prey base driven by food‐web response to climate warming. Knowledge of polar bear response to environmental change is necessary to understand ecosystem dynamics and inform conservation decisions. In the southern Beaufort Sea (SBS) of Alaska and western Canada, sea ice extent has declined since satellite observations began in 1979 and available evidence suggests that the carrying capacity of the SBS for polar bears has trended lower for nearly two decades. In this study, we investigated the population dynamics of polar bears in Alaska''s SBS from 2001 to 2016 using a multistate Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model. States were defined as geographic regions, and we used location data from mark–recapture observations and satellite‐telemetered bears to model transitions between states and thereby explain heterogeneity in recapture probabilities. Our results corroborate prior findings that the SBS subpopulation experienced low survival from 2003 to 2006. Survival improved modestly from 2006 to 2008 and afterward rebounded to comparatively high levels for the remainder of the study, except in 2012. Abundance moved in concert with survival throughout the study period, declining substantially from 2003 and 2006 and afterward fluctuating with lower variation around an average of 565 bears (95% Bayesian credible interval [340, 920]) through 2015. Even though abundance was comparatively stable and without sustained trend from 2006 to 2015, polar bears in the Alaska SBS were less abundant over that period than at any time since passage of the U.S. Marine Mammal Protection Act. The potential for recovery is likely limited by the degree of habitat degradation the subpopulation has experienced, and future reductions in carrying capacity are expected given current projections for continued climate warming.  相似文献   

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BackgroundThe transmission patterns and genetic diversity of dengue virus (DENV) circulating in Africa remain poorly understood. Circulation of the DENV serotype 1 (DENV1) in Angola was detected in 2013, while DENV serotype 2 (DENV2) was detected in 2018. Here, we report results from molecular and genomic investigations conducted at the Ministry of Health national reference laboratory (INIS) in Angola on suspected dengue cases detected between January 2017 and February 2019.MethodsA total of 401 serum samples from dengue suspected cases were collected in 13 of the 18 provinces in Angola. Of those, 351 samples had complete data for demographic and epidemiological analysis, including age, gender, province, type of residence, clinical symptoms, as well as dates of onset of symptoms and sample collection. RNA was extracted from residual samples and tested for DENV-RNA using two distinct real time RT-PCR protocols. On-site whole genome nanopore sequencing was performed on RT-PCR+ samples. Bayesian coalescent models were used to estimate date and origin of outbreak emergence, as well as population growth rates.ResultsMolecular screening showed that 66 out of 351 (19%) suspected cases were DENV-RNA positive across 5 provinces in Angola. DENV RT-PCR+ cases were detected more frequently in urban sites compared to rural sites. Of the DENV RT-PCR+ cases most were collected within 6 days of symptom onset. 93% of infections were confirmed by serotype-specific RT-PCR as DENV2 and 1 case (1.4%) was confirmed as DENV1. Six CHIKV RT-PCR+ cases were also detected during the study period, including 1 co-infection of CHIKV with DENV1. Most cases (87%) were detected in Luanda during the rainy season between April and October. Symptoms associated with severe dengue were observed in 11 patients, including 2 with a fatal outcome. On-site nanopore genome sequencing followed by genetic analysis revealed an introduction of DENV2 Cosmopolitan genotype (also known as DENV2-II genotype) possibly from India in or around October 2015, at least 1 year before its detection in the country. Coalescent models suggest relatively moderately rapid epidemic growth rates and doubling times, and a moderate expansion of DENV2 in Angola during the studied period.ConclusionThis study describes genomic, epidemiological and demographic characteristic of predominately urban transmission of DENV2 in Angola. We also find co-circulation of DENV2 with DENV1 and CHIKV and report several RT-PCR confirmed severe dengue cases in the country. Increasing dengue awareness in healthcare professional, expanding the monitorization of arboviral epidemics across the country, identifying most common mosquito breeding sites in urban settings, implementing innovative vector control interventions and dengue vaccination campaigns could help to reduce vector presence and DENV transmission in Angola.  相似文献   

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Typhoid fever epidemiology was investigated rigorously in Santiago, Chile during the 1980s, when Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) caused seasonal, hyperendemic disease. Targeted interventions reduced the annual typhoid incidence rates from 128–220 cases/105 population occurring between 1977–1984 to <8 cases/105 from 1992 onwards. As such, Santiago represents a contemporary example of the epidemiologic transition of an industrialized city from amplified hyperendemic typhoid fever to a period when typhoid is no longer endemic. We used whole genome sequencing (WGS) and phylogenetic analysis to compare the genotypes of S. Typhi cultured from acute cases of typhoid fever occurring in Santiago during the hyperendemic period of the 1980s (n = 74) versus the nonendemic 2010s (n = 80) when typhoid fever was rare. The genotype distribution between “historical” (1980s) isolates and “modern” (2011–2016) isolates was similar, with genotypes 3.5 and 2 comprising the majority of isolations, and 73/80 (91.3%) of modern isolates matching a genotype detected in the 1980s. Additionally, phylogenomically ‘ancient’ genotypes 1.1 and 1.2.1, uncommon in the global collections, were also detected in both eras, with a notable rise amongst the modern isolates. Thus, genotypes of S. Typhi causing acute illness in the modern nonendemic era match the genotypes circulating during the hyperendemic 1980s. The persistence of historical genotypes may be explained by chronic typhoid carriers originally infected during or before the 1980s.  相似文献   

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Pro-inflammatory cytokines are believed to play an important role in the pathogenesis of dengue infection. This study reports cytokine levels in a total of 54 patients examined in Recife, State of Pernambuco, Brazil. Five out of eight patients who had hemorrhagic manifestations presented tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) levels in sera which were statistically higher than those recorded for controls. In contrast, only one out of 16 patients with mild manifestations had elevated TNF-alpha levels. The levels of interleukin-6 (IL), IL-1beta tested in 24 samples and IL-12 in 30 samples were not significantly increased. Interferon-g was present in 10 out of 30 patients with dengue. The data support the concept that the increased level of TNF-alpha is related to the severity of the disease. Soluble TNF receptor p75 was found in most patients but it is unlikely to be related to severity since it was found with an equivalent frequency and levels in 15 patients with dengue fever and another 15 with dengue hemorrhagic fever.  相似文献   

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BackgroundPrevious studies exploring the factors associated with the incidence of syphilis have mostly focused on individual-level factors. However, recent evidence has indicated that social-level factors, such as sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors, also affect the incidence of syphilis. Studies on the sociodemographic and socioeconomic factors associated with syphilis incidence are scarce, and they have rarely controlled for spatial effects, even though syphilis shows spatial autocorrelation.Methodology/Principal findingsSyphilis data from 21 cities in Guangdong province between 2005 and 2017 were provided by the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System. The incidence time series, incidence map, and space-time scanning data were used to visualize the spatiotemporal distribution. The spatial panel data model was then applied to explore the relationship between sociodemographic factors (population density, net migration rate, male:female ratio, and the number of health institutions per 1,000 residents), socioeconomic factors (gross domestic product per capita, the proportion of secondary/tertiary industry), and the incidence of primary and secondary syphilis after controlling for spatial effects. The incidence of syphilis increased slowly from 2005 (11.91 per 100,000) to 2011 (13.42 per 100,000) and then began to decrease, reaching 6.55 per 100,000 in 2017. High-risk clusters of syphilis tended to shift from developed areas to underdeveloped areas. An inverted U-shaped relationship was found between syphilis incidence and gross domestic product per capita. Moreover, syphilis incidence was significantly associated with population density (β = 2.844, P = 0.006), the number of health institutions per 1,000 residents (β = -0.095, P = 0.007), and the net migration rate (β = -0.219, P = 0.002).Conclusions/SignificanceOur findings suggest that the incidence of primary and secondary syphilis first increase before decreasing as economic development increases further. These results emphasize the necessity to prevent syphilis in regions at the early stages of economic growth.  相似文献   

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BackgroundHemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne disease, is a severe public health threat. Previous studies have discovered the influence of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence, while few studies have concentrated on the stratified analysis of delayed effects and interaction effects of meteorological factors on HFRS.ObjectiveHuludao City is a representative area in north China that suffers from HFRS with primary transmission by Rattus norvegicus. This study aimed to evaluate the climate factors of lag, interaction, and stratified effects of meteorological factors on HFRS incidence in Huludao City.MethodsOur researchers collected meteorological data and epidemiological data of HFRS cases in Huludao City during 2007–2018. First, a distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) for a maximum lag of 16 weeks was developed to assess the respective lag effect of temperature, precipitation, and humidity on HFRS incidence. We then constructed a generalized additive model (GAM) to explore the interaction effect between temperature and the other two meteorological factors on HFRS incidence and the stratified effect of meteorological factors.ResultsDuring the study period, 2751 cases of HFRS were reported in Huludao City. The incidence of HFRS showed a seasonal trend and peak times from February to May. Using the median WAT, median WTP, and median WARH as the reference, the results of DLNM showed that extremely high temperature (97.5th percentile of WAT) had significant associations with HFRS at lag week 15 (RR = 1.68, 95% CI: 1.04–2.74) and lag week 16 (RR = 2.80, 95% CI: 1.31–5.95). Under the extremely low temperature (2.5th percentile of WAT), the RRs of HFRS infection were significant at lag week 5 (RR = 1.28, 95% CI: 1.01–1.67) and lag 6 weeks (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.01–1.57). The RRs of relative humidity were statistically significant at lag week 10 (RR = 1.19, 95% CI: 1.00–1.43) and lag week 11 (RR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.02–1.50) under extremely high relative humidity (97.5th percentile of WARH); however, no statistically significance was observed under extremely low relative humidity (2.5th percentile of WARH). The RRs were significantly high when WAT was -10 degrees Celsius (RR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.02–1.76), -9 degrees Celsius (1.37, 95% CI: 1.04–1.79), and -8 degrees Celsius (RR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.03–1.75) at lag week 5 and more than 23 degrees Celsius after 15 weeks. Interaction and stratified analyses showed that the risk of HFRS infection reached its highest when both temperature and precipitation were at a high level.ConclusionsOur study indicates that meteorological factors, including temperature and humidity, have delayed effects on the occurrence of HFRS in the study area, and the effect of temperature can be modified by humidity and precipitation. Public health professionals should pay more attention to HFRS control when the weather conditions of high temperature with more substantial precipitation and 15 weeks after the temperature is higher than 23 degrees Celsius.  相似文献   

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BackgroundDespite widespread availability of HIV treatment, patient outcomes differ across facilities. We propose and evaluate an approach to measure quality of HIV care at health facilities in South Africa’s national HIV program using routine laboratory data.Methods and findingsData were extracted from South Africa’s National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) Corporate Data Warehouse. All CD4 counts, viral loads (VLs), and other laboratory tests used in HIV monitoring were linked, creating a validated patient identifier. We constructed longitudinal HIV care cascades for all patients in the national HIV program, excluding data from the Western Cape and very small facilities. We then estimated for each facility in each year (2011 to 2015) the following cascade measures identified a priori as reflecting quality of HIV care: median CD4 count among new patients; retention 12 months after presentation; 12-month retention among patients established in care; viral suppression; CD4 recovery; monitoring after an elevated VL. We used factor analysis to identify an underlying measure of quality of care, and we assessed the persistence of this quality measure over time. We then assessed spatiotemporal variation and facility and population predictors in a multivariable regression context.We analyzed data on 3,265 facilities with a median (IQR) annual size of 441 (189 to 988) lab-monitored HIV patients. Retention 12 months after presentation increased from 42% to 47% during the study period, and viral suppression increased from 66% to 79%, although there was substantial variability across facilities. We identified an underlying measure of quality of HIV care that correlated with all cascade measures except median CD4 count at presentation. Averaging across the 5 years of data, this quality score attained a reliability of 0.84. Quality was higher for clinics (versus hospitals), in rural (versus urban) areas, and for larger facilities. Quality was lower in high-poverty areas but was not independently associated with percent Black. Quality increased by 0.49 (95% CI 0.46 to 0.53) standard deviations from 2011 to 2015, and there was evidence of geospatial autocorrelation (p < 0.001). The study’s limitations include an inability to fully adjust for underlying patient risk, reliance on laboratory data which do not capture all relevant domains of quality, potential for errors in record linkage, and the omission of Western Cape.ConclusionsWe observed persistent differences in HIV care and treatment outcomes across South African facilities. Targeting low-performing facilities for additional support could reduce overall burden of disease.

Jacob Bor and co-workers use a new measure of care quality to report on facility-level variations in HIV care and outcomes in South Africa.  相似文献   

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BackgroundLeptospirosis is considered an endemic disease among agricultural workers in Okinawa Prefecture, which is the southernmost part of Japan and has a subtropical climate, but data on the current status and trend of this disease are scarce.Methodology/principal findingsWe conducted a retrospective study of clinically suspected leptospirosis patients whose sample and information were sent to the Okinawa Prefectural Institute of Health and Environment from November 2003 to December 2020. Laboratory diagnosis was established using culture, nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and/or microscopic agglutination test (MAT) with blood, cerebrospinal fluid, and/or urine samples. Statistical analyses were performed to compare the epidemiological information, clinical features, and sensitivities of diagnostic methods among laboratory-confirmed cases. Serogroups and the species of Leptospira isolates were determined by MAT using 13 antisera and flaB sequencing.A total of 531 clinically suspected patients were recruited, among whom 246 (46.3%) were laboratory confirmed to have leptospirosis. Among the confirmed cases, patients aged 20–29 years (22.4%) and male patients (85.7%) were the most common. The most common estimated sources of infection were recreation (44.5%) and labor (27.8%) in rivers. Approximately half of the isolates were of the L. interrogans serogroup Hebdomadis. The main clinical symptoms were fever (97.1%), myalgia (56.3%), and conjunctival hyperemia (52.2%). Headache occurred significantly more often in patients with Hebdomadis serogroup infections than those with other serogroup infections. The sensitivities of culture and PCR exceeded 65% during the first 6 days, while the sensitivity of MAT surpassed that of culture and PCR in the second week after onset. PCR using blood samples was a preferable method for the early diagnosis of leptospirosis.Conclusions/significanceThe results of this study will support clinicians in the diagnosis and treatment of undifferentiated febrile patients in Okinawa Prefecture as well as patients returning from Okinawa Prefecture.  相似文献   

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BackgroundStudies in low- and middle-income regions suggest that child marriage (<18 years) is a risk factor for poor reproductive outcomes among women. However, in high-income-country contexts where childbearing before age 18 occurs predominantly outside marriage, it is unknown whether marriage is adversely associated with reproductive health among mothers below age 18. This study examined the joint associations of marriage and adolescent maternal age group (<18, 18–19, and 20–24 years) with reproductive, maternal, and infant health indicators in the United States.Methods and findingsBirth registrations with US resident mothers aged ≤24 years with complete information on marital status were drawn from the 2014 to 2019 Natality Public Use Files (n = 5,669,824). Odds ratios for the interaction between marital status and maternal age group were estimated using multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for covariates such as maternal race/ethnicity and nativity status, federal program participation, and paternal age. Marriage prevalence was 3.6%, 13.2%, and 34.1% among births to mothers aged <18, 18–19, and 20–24 years, respectively. Age gradients in the adjusted odds ratios (AORs) were present for most indicators, and many gradients differed by marital status. Among births to mothers aged <18 years, marriage was associated with greater adjusted odds of prior pregnancy termination (AOR 1.64, 95% CI 1.52–1.77, p < 0.001), repeat birth (AOR 2.84, 95% CI 2.68–3.00, p < 0.001), maternal smoking (AOR 1.24, 95% CI 1.15–1.35, p < 0.001), and infant morbidity (AOR 1.07, 95% CI 1.01–1.14, p = 0.03), but weaker or reverse associations existed among births to older mothers. For all maternal age groups, marriage was associated with lower adjusted odds of late or no prenatal care initiation, sexually transmitted infection, and no breastfeeding at hospital discharge, but these beneficial associations were weaker among births to mothers aged <18 and 18–19 years. Limitations of the study include its cross-sectional nature and lack of information on marriage timing relative to prior pregnancy events.ConclusionsMarriage among mothers below age 18 is associated with both adverse and favorable reproductive, maternal, and infant health indicators. Heterogeneity exists in the relationship between marriage and reproductive health across adolescent maternal age groups, suggesting girl child marriages must be examined separately from marriages at older ages.

In a population-based study, Andrée-Anne Fafard St-Germain and colleagues examine the joint associations of marriage and adolescent maternal age group (<18, 18-19, and 20-24 years) with reproductive, maternal, and infant health indicators in the United States.  相似文献   

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Growing evidence suggests considerable variation in endemic typhoid fever incidence at some locations over time, yet few settings have multi-year incidence estimates to inform typhoid control measures. We sought to describe a decade of typhoid fever incidence in the Kilimanjaro Region of Tanzania. Cases of blood culture confirmed typhoid were identified among febrile patients at two sentinel hospitals during three study periods: 2007–08, 2011–14, and 2016–18. To account for under-ascertainment at sentinel facilities, we derived adjustment multipliers from healthcare utilization surveys done in the hospital catchment area. Incidence estimates and credible intervals (CrI) were derived using a Bayesian hierarchical incidence model that incorporated uncertainty of our observed typhoid fever prevalence, of healthcare seeking adjustment multipliers, and of blood culture diagnostic sensitivity. Among 3,556 total participants, 50 typhoid fever cases were identified. Of typhoid cases, 26 (52%) were male and the median (range) age was 22 (<1–60) years; 4 (8%) were aged <5 years and 10 (20%) were aged 5 to 14 years. Annual typhoid fever incidence was estimated as 61.5 (95% CrI 14.9–181.9), 6.5 (95% CrI 1.4–20.4), and 4.0 (95% CrI 0.6–13.9) per 100,000 persons in 2007–08, 2011–14, and 2016–18, respectively. There were no deaths among typhoid cases. We estimated moderate typhoid incidence (≥10 per 100 000) in 2007–08 and low (<10 per 100 000) incidence during later surveillance periods, but with overlapping credible intervals across study periods. Although consistent with falling typhoid incidence, we interpret this as showing substantial variation over the study periods. Given potential variation, multi-year surveillance may be warranted in locations making decisions about typhoid conjugate vaccine introduction and other control measures.  相似文献   

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BackgroundScrub typhus, caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, an obligate intracellular gram-negative bacterium, along with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), caused by hantaviruses, are natural-focus infectious diseases prevalent in Shandong Province, China. Both diseases have similar clinical manifestations in certain disease stages and similar epidemic seasons, which has caused difficulties for physicians in distinguishing them. The aim of this study was to investigate whether misdiagnosis of scrub typhus as HFRS occurred in patients in Shandong Province.MethodsSerum samples (N = 112) of clinically suspected HFRS patients from 2013 to 2014 in Shandong Province were analyzed with enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) for antibodies to both hantavirus and Orientia tsutsugamushi.ResultsELISA showed that 56.3% (63/112) and 8.0% (9/112) of clinically suspected HFRS patients were IgM antibody positive to hantavirus and O. tsutsugamushi, respectively. Among the hantavirus IgM antibody positive patients, 7.9% (5/63) were also IgM antibody positive to O. tsutsugamushi. Among the hantavirus IgM antibody negative sera, 8.2% (4/49) of sera were positive to O. tsutsugamushi.ConclusionsWe concluded that some scrub typhus patients were misdiagnosed as HFRS and co-infection of scrub typhus and HFRS might exist in China. Due to the different treatments for scrub typhus and HFRS, physicians should carefully differentiate between scrub typhus and HFRS and consider administering anti-rickettsia antibiotics if treatment for HFRS alone does not work.  相似文献   

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