On the role of cross-immunity and vaccines on the survival of less fit flu-strains

A pathogen's route to survival involves various mechanisms including its ability to invade (host's susceptibility) and its reproductive success within an invaded host ("infectiousness"). The immunological history of an individual often plays an important role in reducing host susceptibility or it helps the host mount a faster immunological response de facto reducing infectiousness. The cross-immunity generated by prior infections to influenza A strains from the same subtype provide a significant example. The results of this paper are based on the analytical study of a two-strain epidemic model that incorporates host isolation (during primary infection) and cross-immunity to study the role of invasion mediated cross-immunity in a population where a precursor related strain (within the same subtype, i.e. H3N2, H1N1) has already become established. An uncertainty and sensitivity analysis is carried out on the ability of the invading strain to survive for given cross-immunity levels. Our findings indicate that it is possible to support coexistence even in the case when invading strains are "unfit", that is, when the basic reproduction number of the invading strain is less than one. However, such scenarios are possible only in the presence of isolation. That is, appropriate increments in isolation rates and weak cross-immunity can facilitate the survival of less fit strains. The development of "flu" vaccines that minimally enhance herd cross-immunity levels may, by increasing genotype diversity, help facilitate the generation and survival of novel strains.     

Regulation of DMBT1 via NOD2 and TLR4 in intestinal epithelial cells modulates bacterial recognition and invasion

Mucosal epithelial cell layers are constantly exposed to a complex resident microflora. Deleted in malignant brain tumors 1 (DMBT1) belongs to the group of secreted scavenger receptor cysteine-rich proteins and is considered to be involved in host defense by pathogen binding. This report describes the regulation and function of DMBT1 in intestinal epithelial cells, which form the primary immunological barrier for invading pathogens. We report that intestinal epithelial cells up-regulate DMBT1 upon proinflammatory stimuli (e.g., TNF-alpha, LPS). We demonstrate that DMBT1 is a target gene for the intracellular pathogen receptor NOD2 via NF-kappaB activation. DMBT1 is strongly up-regulated in the inflamed intestinal mucosa of Crohn's disease patients with wild-type, but not with mutant NOD2. We show that DMBT1 inhibits cytoinvasion of Salmonella enterica and LPS- and muramyl dipeptide-induced NF-kappaB activation and cytokine secretion in vitro. Thus, DMBT1 may play an important role in the first line of mucosal defense conferring immune exclusion of bacterial cell wall components. Dysregulated intestinal DMBT1 expression due to mutations in the NOD2/CARD15 gene may be part of the complex pathophysiology of barrier dysfunction in Crohn's disease.     

Localized contacts between hosts reduce pathogen diversity

We investigate the dynamics of a simple epidemiological model for the invasion by a pathogen strain of a population where another strain circulates. We assume that reinfection by the same strain is possible but occurs at a reduced rate due to acquired immunity. The rate of reinfection by a distinct strain is also reduced due to cross-immunity. Individual based simulations of this model on a 'small-world' network show that the proportion of local contacts in the host contact network structure significantly affects the outcome of such an invasion, and as a consequence will affect the patterns of pathogen evolution. In particular, hosts interacting through a 'small-world' network of contacts support lower prevalence of infection than well-mixed populations, and the region in parameter space for which an invading strain can become endemic and coexist with the circulating strain is smaller, reducing the potential to accommodate pathogen diversity. We discuss the underlying mechanisms for the reported effects, and we propose an effective mean-field model to account for the contact structure of the host population in 'small-world' networks.     

Evolution of pathogens towards low R0 in heterogeneous populations

Maximization of the basic reproduction ratio or R(0) is widely believed to drive the emergence of novel pathogens. The presence of exploitable heterogeneities in a population, such as high variance in the number of potentially infectious contacts, increases R(0) and thus pathogens that can exploit heterogeneities in the contact structure have an advantage over those that do not. However, exploitation of heterogeneities results in a more rapid depletion of the potentially susceptible neighbourhood for an infected host. Here a simple model of pathogen evolution in a heterogeneous environment is developed and placed in the context of HIV transmission. In this model, it is shown that pathogens may evolve towards lower R(0), even if this results in pathogen extinction. For sufficiently high transmissibility, two locally stable strategies exist for an evolving pathogen, one that exploits heterogeneities and results in higher R(0), and one that does not, and results in lower R(0). While the low R(0) strategy is never evolutionarily stable, invading strains with higher R(0) will also converge to the low R(0) strategy if not sufficiently different from the resident strain. Heterogenous transmission is increasingly recognized as fundamental to epidemiological dynamics and the evolution of pathogens; here, it is shown that the ability to exploit heterogeneity is a strategy that can itself evolve.     

Exclusion of generalist pathogens in multihost communities

Knowing how to control a pathogen that infects more than one host species is of increasing importance because the incidence of such infections grows with continuing environmental change. Of concern are infections transmitted from wildlife to humans or livestock. To determine which options are available to control a pathogen in these circumstances, we analyze the pathogen invasion matrix for the multihost susceptible-infected-susceptible model. We highlight the importance of both community structure and the column sum or row sum index, an indicator of both force of infection and community stability. We derive a set of guidelines for constructing culling strategies and suggest a hybrid strategy that has the advantages of both the bottom-up and the top-down approaches, which we study in some detail. The analysis holds for an arbitrary number of host species, enabling the analysis of large-scale ecological systems and systems with spatial dimensions. We test the robustness of our methods by making two changes in the structure of the underlying dynamic model, adding direct competition and introducing frequency-dependent infection transmission. In particular, we show that the introduction of an additional host can eliminate the pathogen rather than eliminate the resident host. The discussion is illustrated with a reference to bovine tuberculosis.     

Allocation to sexual versus nonsexual disease transmission

Many diseases have both sexual and nonsexual transmission routes, and closely related diseases often differ in their degree of sexual transmission. We investigate the evolution of transmission mode as a function of host social and mating structure using a model in which disease transmission is explicitly dependent on the numbers of sexual and nonsexual contacts (which are themselves a function of population density) and per-contact infection probabilities. Most generally, and in the absence of trade-offs between the degree of sexual transmission and effects on host fecundity and mortality, nonsexual transmission is favored above the social-sexual crossover point (the host density at which the number of nonsexual contacts exceeds the number of sexual contacts), while sexual transmission is favored below this point. When changes in allocation to the two transmission modes are accompanied by changes in mortality or fecundity, both mixed and pure transmission strategies can be favored. If invading genotypes differ substantially from resident genotypes, genetic polymorphism in transmission mode is possible. The evolutionary outcomes are predictable from a knowledge of the equilibrium population sizes in relation to the social-sexual crossover point. Our results also show that predictions about dynamic outcomes, based on rates of invasion for single pathogens into healthy populations, do not adequately describe the resulting disease prevalence nor predict the subsequent evolutionary dynamics; once invasion of a pathogen has occurred, the conditions for spread of a second pathogen are themselves altered. If the host is considered as a single resource, our results show that two pathogens may coexist on a single resource if they use that resource differentially and have differential feedbacks on resource abundance; such resource feedback effects may be present in other biological systems.     

High host density favors greater virulence: a model of parasite–host dynamics based on multi-type branching processes

We use a multitype continuous time Markov branching process model to describe the dynamics of the spread of parasites of two types that can mutate into each other in a common host population. While most mathematical models for the virulence of infectious diseases focus on the interplay between the dynamics of host populations and the optimal characteristics for the success of the pathogen, our model focuses on how pathogen characteristics may change at the start of an epidemic, before the density of susceptible hosts decline. We envisage animal husbandry situations where hosts are at very high density and epidemics are curtailed before host densities are much reduced. The use of three pathogen characteristics: lethality, transmissibility and mutability allows us to investigate the interplay of these in relation to host density. We provide some numerical illustrations and discuss the effects of the size of the enclosure containing the host population on the encounter rate in our model that plays the key role in determining what pathogen type will eventually prevail. We also present a multistage extension of the model to situations where there are several populations and parasites can be transmitted from one of them to another. We conclude that animal husbandry situations with high stock densities will lead to very rapid increases in virulence, where virulent strains are either more transmissible or favoured by mutation. Further the process is affected by the nature of the farm enclosures.     

Vector-Borne Pathogen and Host Evolution in a Structured Immuno-Epidemiological System

Vector-borne disease transmission is a common dissemination mode used by many pathogens to spread in a host population. Similar to directly transmitted diseases, the within-host interaction of a vector-borne pathogen and a host’s immune system influences the pathogen’s transmission potential between hosts via vectors. Yet there are few theoretical studies on virulence–transmission trade-offs and evolution in vector-borne pathogen–host systems. Here, we consider an immuno-epidemiological model that links the within-host dynamics to between-host circulation of a vector-borne disease. On the immunological scale, the model mimics antibody-pathogen dynamics for arbovirus diseases, such as Rift Valley fever and West Nile virus. The within-host dynamics govern transmission and host mortality and recovery in an age-since-infection structured host-vector-borne pathogen epidemic model. By considering multiple pathogen strains and multiple competing host populations differing in their within-host replication rate and immune response parameters, respectively, we derive evolutionary optimization principles for both pathogen and host. Invasion analysis shows that the \({\mathcal {R}}_0\) maximization principle holds for the vector-borne pathogen. For the host, we prove that evolution favors minimizing case fatality ratio (CFR). These results are utilized to compute host and pathogen evolutionary trajectories and to determine how model parameters affect evolution outcomes. We find that increasing the vector inoculum size increases the pathogen \({\mathcal {R}}_0\), but can either increase or decrease the pathogen virulence (the host CFR), suggesting that vector inoculum size can contribute to virulence of vector-borne diseases in distinct ways.     

Evolution of immunological memory and the regulation of competition between pathogens

Memory is a central characteristic of immune responses. It is defined as an elevated number of specific immune cells that remain after resolution of infection and can protect the host against reinfection. The evolution of immunological memory is subject to debate. The advantages of memory discussed so far include protection from reinfection, control of chronic infection, and the transfer of immune function to the next generation. Mathematical models are used to identify a new force that can drive the evolution of immunological memory: the duration of memory can regulate the degree of competition between different pathogens. While a long duration of memory provides lasting protection against reinfection, it may also allow an inferior pathogen species to persist. This can be detrimental for the host if the inferior pathogen is more virulent. On the other hand, a shorter duration of memory ensures that an inferior pathogen species is excluded. This can be beneficial for the host if the inferior pathogen is more virulent. Thus, while in the absence of pathogen diversity memory is always expected to evolve to a long duration, under specific circumstances, memory can evolve toward shorter durations in the presence of pathogen diversity.     

Species diversity reduces invasion success in pathogen‐regulated communities

The loss of natural enemies is thought to explain why certain invasive species are so spectacularly successful in their introduced range. However, if losing natural enemies leads to unregulated population growth, this implies that native species are themselves normally subject to natural enemy regulation. One possible widespread mechanism of natural enemy regulation is negative soil feedbacks, in which resident species growing on home soils are disadvantaged because of a build‐up of species‐specific soil pathogens. Here we construct simple models in which pathogens cause resident species to suffer reduced competitive ability on home soils and consider the consequences of such pathogen regulation for potential invading species. We show that the probability of successful invasion and its timescale depend strongly on the competitive ability of the invader on resident soils, but are unaffected by whether or not the invader also suffers reduced competitive ability on home soils (i.e. pathogen regulation). This is because, at the start of an invasion, the invader is rare and hence mostly encounters resident soils. However, the lack of pathogen regulation does allow the invader to achieve an unusually high population density. We also show that increasing resident species diversity in a pathogen‐regulated community increases invasion resistance by reducing the frequency of home‐site encounters. Diverse communities are more resistant to invasion than monocultures of the component species: they preclude a greater range of potential invaders, slow the timescale of invasion and reduce invader population size. Thus, widespread pathogen regulation of resident species is a potential explanation for the empirical observation that diverse communities are more invasion resistant.     

When does ecosystem engineering cause invasion and species replacement?

Introduced exotic species can dominate communities and replace native species that should be better adapted to their local environment, a paradox that is usually explained by the absence of natural enemies and by habitat alteration resulting from anthropogenic disturbance. Additionally, introduced species can enhance their invasion success and impact on native species by modifying selection pressures in their new environment through ecosystem engineering. We analyse a simple dynamic model of indirect competition for habitat between a non-engineering resident species and an engineering exotic species. The conditions for invasion and competitive exclusion of the resident by the exotic species and the range of dynamic outcomes suggested by the model are determined by the form of density dependence. We give simple criteria for the success of the invading species on dimensionless quantities involving rates of ecosystem engineering and of habitat degradation. The model's predictions offer an additional explanation for a range of invasion dynamics reported in the literature, including lag times between introduction and establishment. One intriguing result is that a series of failed invasions may successively reduce environmental resistance to subsequent invasion, through a cumulative effect of habitat transformation. More work is needed to determine the frequency and conditions in which engineering is required for successful establishment, and whether highly-successful (or high-impact) invaders are more likely to possess ecosystem engineering traits.     

Population Processes at Multiple Spatial Scales Maintain Diversity and Adaptation in the Linum marginale - Melampsora lini Association

Host-pathogen coevolution is a major driver of species diversity, with an essential role in the generation and maintenance of genetic variation in host resistance and pathogen infectivity. Little is known about how resistance and infectivity are structured across multiple geographic scales and what eco-evolutionary processes drive these patterns. Across southern Australia, the wild flax Linum marginale is frequently attacked by its rust fungus Melampsora lini. Here, we compare the genetic and phenotypic structure of resistance and infectivity among population pairs from two regions where environmental differences associate with specific life histories and mating systems. We find that both host and pathogen populations are genetically distinct between these regions. The region with outcrossing hosts and pathogens that go through asexual cycles followed by sexual reproduction showed greater diversity of resistance and infectivity phenotypes, higher levels of resistance and less clumped within-population spatial distribution of resistance. However, in the region where asexual pathogens infect selfing hosts, pathogens were more infective and better adapted to sympatric hosts. Our findings largely agree with expectations based on the distinctly different host mating systems in the two regions, with a likely advantage for hosts undergoing recombination. For the pathogen in this system, sexual reproduction may primarily be a survival mechanism in the region where it is observed. While it appears to potentially have adverse effects on local adaptation in the short term, it may be necessary for longer-term coevolution with outcrossing hosts.     

Leptospira interrogans Enolase Is Secreted Extracellularly and Interacts with Plasminogen

Leptospira interrogans is the agent for leptospirosis, an important zoonosis in humans and animals across the globe. Surface proteins of invading pathogens, such as L. interrogans, are thought to be responsible for successful microbial persistence in vivo via interaction with specific host components. In particular, a number of invasive infectious agents exploit host proteolytic pathways, such as one involving plasminogen (Pg), which aid in efficient pathogen dissemination within the host. Here we show that L. interrogans serovar Lai binds host Pg and that the leptospiral gene product LA1951, annotated as enolase, is involved in this interaction. Interestingly, unlike in related pathogenic Spirochetes, such as Borrelia burgdorferi, LA1951 is not readily detectable in the L. interrogans outer membrane. We show that the antigen is indeed secreted extracellularly; however, it can reassociate with the pathogen surface, where it displays Pg-binding and measurable enzymatic activity. Hamsters infected with L. interrogans also develop readily detectable antibody responses against enolase. Taken together, our results suggest that the L. interrogans enolase has evolved to play a role in pathogen interaction with host molecules, which may contribute to the pathogenesis of leptospirosis.     

Modeling host-pathogen interactions: H. sapiens as a host and C. difficile as a pathogen

Many complex mechanisms in immunological studies cannot be measured by experiments, but can be analyzed by mathematical simulations. Using theoretical modeling techniques, general principles of host–pathogen system interactions can be explored and clinical treatment schedules can be optimized to lower the microbial toxin burden and side effects in the host system. In this study, we use a computational modeling technique that aims to explain the host–pathogen interactions and suggests how the host system tries to survive from the pathogen attack. The method generates data on reaction fluxes in a pathway at steady state. A set of constraints is incorporated and an objective function for the minimization of toxin expression, with respect to some parameters such as concentration of signaling molecules, is formulated. We have integrated the toxin expression regulatory pathway in Clostridium difficile, apoptosis and mitogen‐activated protein kinase pathways in an infected host (Homo sapiens). We have found that due to the minimization of the toxin expression, the signal flow values for most of the survival genes are at the higher side, whereas it is the reverse for most of the proapoptotic genes. We have observed increased signal flow values of the molecules for extracellular regulated kinase as compared with the molecules present in c‐Jun NH2‐terminal kinase/p38 pathways. In light of these observations, we can hypothesize that lower toxin level in a pathogen implies higher chance of host survival. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The immunological function of allosuckling

Young mammals are unable to mount an efficient immune response against invading pathogens. Until their immune system is mature mothers transmit to their young immunological compounds during lactation. Given that genetic and foster mothers can assume this protective role, we propose that young mammals may gain immunological benefits by suckling more than one nursing female, a behaviour referred to as "allosuckling". This hypothesis has so far not been considered as a potential explanation for the propensity of young mammals to suckle foster mothers. However, pathogen transmission through milk during allosuckling may reduce the immunological net benefit that young gain, and furthermore allosuckling may increase pathogen transmission between foster and genetic mothers implying costs of allosuckling for all participants. Here, we develop the immunological function of allosuckling hypothesis (IFA) as a potential explanation for intra-and interspecific variation in allosuckling frequency. We present published experimental evidence for the assumption that immunological benefits of allosuckling depend on the immunological status of the offspring, the foster and the genetic mothers. Finally, we give predictions arising from the IFA hypothesis and propose that the IFA may provide a new explanation as to why neonates suckle various females and why foster females often refuse to nurse nonoffspring.     

Species coexistence and pathogens with frequency-dependent transmission

Pathogens that infect multiple hosts are commonly transmitted by vectors, and their transmission rate is often thought to depend on the proportion of hosts or vectors infected (i.e., frequency dependence). A model of a two-host, one-pathogen system with frequency-dependent transmission is used to investigate how sharing a pathogen with an alternative host influences pathogen-mediated extinction. The results show that if there is frequency-dependent transmission, a host can be rescued from pathogen-mediated extinction by the presence of a second host with which it shares a pathogen. The study provides an important conceptual counterexample to the idea that shared pathogens necessarily result in apparent competition by showing that shared pathogens can mediate apparent mutualism. We distinguish two types of dilution effect (pathogen reduction with increasing host diversity), each resulting from different underlying pathogen transmission processes and host density effects. These results have important consequences for understanding the role of pathogens in species interactions and in maintaining host species diversity.     

A host-host-pathogen model with free-living infective stages, applicable to microbial pest control

A model has been investigated of the dynamics of the interaction between two hosts which are both attacked by a common pathogen, where the pathogen has free-living infective stages the population size of which must itself be modelled explicitly, and where the host species do not interact with one another except through their shared pathogen. If either host interacted with the pathogen alone, three broad classes of dynamics would be possible: host regulation, pathogen persistence and pathogen extinction. Here, all possible types of combinations of hosts are examined: regulation-regulation (both hosts would be regulated if they interacted with the pathogen alone), regulation-persistence, regulation-extinction, persistence-persistence persistence-extinction and extinction-extinction. A wide range of dynamics is generated, including a number of patterns quite unlike those found in the one-host pathogen case (e.g. persistence in one host, elimination of the other host) and behaviour contingent on initial densities in the system. For clarity and pertinence, attention is focused on the case where one host is a pest, the pathogen is a potential microbial control agent, and the other host is a non-target species which it is undesirable to harm. The model suggests, broadly, that non-targets are unlikely to be seriously threatened in such cases, and also that non-targets, far from undermining pest control, are quite likely to contribute to its efficacy.     

Candida albicans morphogenesis and host defence: discriminating invasion from colonization

Candida albicans is a common fungal pathogen of humans that colonizes the skin and mucosal surfaces of most healthy individuals. Until recently, little was known about the mechanisms by which mucosal antifungal defences tolerate colonizing C. albicans but react strongly when hyphae of the same microorganism attempt to invade tissue. In this Review, we describe the properties of yeast cells and hyphae that are relevant to their interaction with the host, and the immunological mechanisms that differentially recognize colonizing versus invading C. albicans.     

The within-host population dynamics of normal flora in the presence of an invading pathogen and antibiotic treatments

A mathematical competition model between normal flora and an invading pathogen was devised to allow analysis of bacterial infections in a host. The normal flora includes the various microorganisms that live on or within the host and act as a primary human immune system. Despite the important role of the normal flora, no mathematical study has been undertaken on models of the interaction between it and invading pathogens against a background of antibiotic treatment. To quantify key elements of bacterial behavior in a host, pairs of nonlinear differential equations were used to describe three categories of human health conditions, namely, healthy, latent infection, and active infection. In addition, a cutoff value was proposed to represent the minimum population level required for survival. The recovery of normal flora after antibiotic treatment was also included in the simulation because of its relation to human health recovery. The significance of each simulation parameter for the bacterial growth model was investigated. The devised simulation showed that bacterial proliferation rate, carrying capacity, initial population levels, and competition intensity have a significant effect on bacterial behavior. Consequently, a model was established to describe competition between normal flora and an infiltrating pathogen. Unlike other population models, the recovery process described by the devised model can describe the human health recovery mechanism.     

Evolution and maintenance of microbe‐mediated protection under occasional pathogen infection

Every host is colonized by a variety of microbes, some of which can protect their hosts from pathogen infection. However, pathogen presence naturally varies over time in nature, such as in the case of seasonal epidemics. We experimentally coevolved populations of Caenorhabditis elegans worm hosts with bacteria possessing protective traits (Enterococcus faecalis), in treatments varying the infection frequency with pathogenic Staphylococcus aureus every host generation, alternating host generations, every fifth host generation, or never. We additionally investigated the effect of initial pathogen presence at the formation of the defensive symbiosis. Our results show that enhanced microbe‐mediated protection evolved during host‐protective microbe coevolution when faced with rare infections by a pathogen. Initial pathogen presence had no effect on the evolutionary outcome of microbe‐mediated protection. We also found that protection was only effective at preventing mortality during the time of pathogen infection. Overall, our results suggest that resident microbes can be a form of transgenerational immunity against rare pathogen infection.