Heterogeneity in susceptibility to infection can explain high reinfection rates

Heterogeneity in susceptibility and infectivity is inherent to infectious disease transmission in nature. Here we are concerned with the formulation of mathematical models that capture the essence of heterogeneity while keeping a simple structure suitable of analytical treatment. We explore the consequences of host heterogeneity in the susceptibility to infection for epidemiological models for which immunity conferred by infection is partially protective, known as susceptible-infected-recovered-infected (SIRI) models. We analyze the impact of heterogeneity on disease prevalence and contrast the susceptibility profiles of the subpopulations at risk for primary infection and reinfection. We present a systematic study in the case of two frailty groups.We predict that the average rate of reinfection may be higher than the average rate of primary infection, which may seem paradoxical given that primary infection induces life-long partial protection. Infection generates a selection mechanism whereby fit individuals remain in S and frail individuals are transferred to R. If this effect is strong enough we have a scenario where, on average, the rate of reinfection is higher than the rate of primary infection even though each individual has a risk reduction following primary infection. This mechanism may explain high rates of tuberculosis reinfection recently reported.Finally, the enhanced benefits of vaccination strategies that target the high-risk groups are quantified.     

Within-host dynamics of multi-species infections: facilitation, competition and virulence

Host individuals are often infected with more than one parasite species (parasites defined broadly, to include viruses and bacteria). Yet, research in infection biology is dominated by studies on single-parasite infections. A focus on single-parasite infections is justified if the interactions among parasites are additive, however increasing evidence points to non-additive interactions being the norm. Here we review this evidence and theoretically explore the implications of non-additive interactions between co-infecting parasites. We use classic Lotka-Volterra two-species competition equations to investigate the within-host dynamical consequences of various mixes of competition and facilitation between a pair of co-infecting species. We then consider the implications of these dynamics for the virulence (damage to host) of co-infections and consequent evolution of parasite strategies of exploitation. We find that whereas one-way facilitation poses some increased virulence risk, reciprocal facilitation presents a qualitatively distinct destabilization of within-host dynamics and the greatest risk of severe disease.     

The evolutionary consequences of plasticity in host-pathogen interactions

Interactions between individuals such as hosts and pathogens are often characterized by substantial phenotypic plasticity. Pathogens sometimes alter their exploitation strategies in response to defensive strategies adopted by their host and vice versa. Nevertheless, most game-theoretic models developed to explain the evolution of pathogen and host characteristics assume that no such plasticity occurs. Allowing for phenotypic plasticity in these models is difficult because one must focus on the evolution of pathogen and host reaction norms, and then allow for the potentially indefinite reciprocal changes in pathogen and host behaviour that occur during an infection as a result of their interacting reaction norms. Here, we begin to address these issues for a simple host-pathogen system in which the pathogen exhibits a level of virulence and the host exhibits a level of immune clearance. We find, quite generally, that plasticity promotes the evolution of higher levels of cooperation, in this case leading to reduced levels of both virulence and clearance.     

The effects of females’ susceptibility on the coexistence of multiple pathogen strains of sexually transmitted diseases

 We study the dynamics of sexually transmitted pathogens in a heterosexually active population, where females are divided into two different groups based on their susceptibility to two distinct pathogenic strains. It is assumed that a host cannot be invaded simultaneously by both disease agents and that when symptoms appear – a function of the pathogen, strain, virulence, and an individual’s degree of susceptibility – then individuals are treated and/or recover. Heterogeneity in susceptibility to the acquisition of infection and/or in variability in the length of the infection period of the female subpopulations is incorporated. Pathogens’ coexistence is highly unlikely on homogeneously mixing female and male populations with no heterogeneity among individuals of either gender. Variability in susceptibility in the female subpopulation makes coexistence possible albeit under a complex set of circumstances that must include differences in contact/mixing rates between the groups of females and the male population as well as differences in the lengths of their average periods of infectiousness for the three groups. Received 25 July 1995; received in revised form 6 May 1996     

The dynamics of sexual contact networks: effects on disease spread and control

Sexually transmitted pathogens persist in populations despite the availability of biomedical interventions and knowledge of behavioural changes that would reduce individual-level risk. While behavioural risk factors are shared between many sexually transmitted infections, the prevalence of these diseases across different risk groups varies. Understanding this heterogeneity and identifying better control strategies depends on an improved understanding of the complex social contact networks over which pathogens spread. To date, most efforts to study the impact of sexual network structure on disease dynamics have focused on static networks. However, the interaction between the dynamics of partnership formation and dissolution and the dynamics of transmission plays a role, both in restricting the effective network accessible to the pathogen, and in modulating the transmission dynamics. We present a simple method to simulate dynamical networks of sexual partnerships. We inform the model using survey data on sexual attitudes and lifestyles, and investigate how the duration of infectiousness changes the effective contact network over which disease may spread. We then simulate several control strategies: screening, vaccination and behavioural interventions. Previous theory and research has advanced the importance of core groups for spread and control of STD. Our work is consistent with the importance of core groups, but extends this idea to consider how the duration of infectiousness associated with a particular pathogen interacts with host behaviours to define these high risk subpopulations. Characteristics of the parts of the network accessible to the pathogen, which represent the network structure of sexual contacts from the “point of view” of the pathogen, are substantially different from those of the network as a whole. The pathogen itself plays an important role in determining this effective network structure; specifically, we find that if the pathogen’s duration of infectiousness is short, infection is more concentrated in high-activity, high-concurrency individuals even when all other factors are held constant. Widespread screening programmes would be enhanced by follow-up interventions targeting higher-risk individuals, because screening shortens the expected duration of infectiousness and causes a greater relative decrease in prevalence among lower-activity than in higher-activity individuals. Even for pathogens with longer durations of infectiousness, our findings suggest that targeting vaccination and behavioural interventions towards high-activity individuals provides comparable benefits to population-wide interventions.     

Pathogenesis and treatment concepts of orthopaedic biofilm infections

Implant-associated infection is caused by surface-adhering bacteria persisting as biofilm. Periprosthetic joint infection is difficult to diagnose and treat. The high susceptibility of implanted devices to infection is because of a locally acquired host defense defect, and persistence is mainly because of the rapid formation of a biofilm resistant to host defense and antimicrobial agents. Successful treatment of periprosthetic joint infection requires the optimal surgical procedure combined with long-term antimicrobial therapy directed against surface-adhering microorganisms. Surgical treatment according to an algorithm has been validated in several observational studies. The role of rifampin against device-associated staphylococcal infection has been evaluated in an animal model, in observational studies and in a controlled trial. Given the limited efficacy of traditional antibiotics in implant-associated infections, novel strategies such as coating of the device, vaccination against biofilms, and quorum-sensing inhibitors are promising future options for prevention and treatment.     

Integrative Model of the Immune Response to a Pulmonary Macrophage Infection: What Determines the Infection Duration?

The immune mechanisms which determine the infection duration induced by pathogens targeting pulmonary macrophages are poorly known. To explore the impact of such pathogens, it is indispensable to integrate the various immune mechanisms and to take into account the variability in pathogen virulence and host susceptibility. In this context, mathematical models complement experimentation and are powerful tools to represent and explore the complex mechanisms involved in the infection and immune dynamics. We developed an original mathematical model in which we detailed the interactions between the macrophages and the pathogen, the orientation of the adaptive response and the cytokine regulations. We applied our model to the Porcine Respiratory and Reproductive Syndrome virus (PRRSv), a major concern for the swine industry. We extracted value ranges for the model parameters from modelling and experimental studies on respiratory pathogens. We identified the most influential parameters through a sensitivity analysis. We defined a parameter set, the reference scenario, resulting in a realistic and representative immune response to PRRSv infection. We then defined scenarios corresponding to graduated levels of strain virulence and host susceptibility around the reference scenario. We observed that high levels of antiviral cytokines and a dominant cellular response were associated with either short, the usual assumption, or long infection durations, depending on the immune mechanisms involved. To identify these mechanisms, we need to combine the levels of antiviral cytokines, including , and . The latter is a good indicator of the infected macrophage level, both combined provide the adaptive response orientation. Available PRRSv vaccines lack efficiency. By integrating the main interactions between the complex immune mechanisms, this modelling framework could be used to help designing more efficient vaccination strategies.     

The impact of imitation on vaccination behavior in social contact networks

Previous game-theoretic studies of vaccination behavior typically have often assumed that populations are homogeneously mixed and that individuals are fully rational. In reality, there is heterogeneity in the number of contacts per individual, and individuals tend to imitate others who appear to have adopted successful strategies. Here, we use network-based mathematical models to study the effects of both imitation behavior and contact heterogeneity on vaccination coverage and disease dynamics. We integrate contact network epidemiological models with a framework for decision-making, within which individuals make their decisions either based purely on payoff maximization or by imitating the vaccination behavior of a social contact. Simulations suggest that when the cost of vaccination is high imitation behavior may decrease vaccination coverage. However, when the cost of vaccination is small relative to that of infection, imitation behavior increases vaccination coverage, but, surprisingly, also increases the magnitude of epidemics through the clustering of non-vaccinators within the network. Thus, imitation behavior may impede the eradication of infectious diseases. Calculations that ignore behavioral clustering caused by imitation may significantly underestimate the levels of vaccination coverage required to attain herd immunity.     

Effects of schistosomes on host anti-viral immune response and the acquisition,virulence, and prevention of viral infections: A systematic review

Although a growing number of studies suggest interactions between Schistosoma parasites and viral infections, the effects of schistosome infections on the host response to viruses have not been evaluated comprehensively. In this systematic review, we investigated how schistosomes impact incidence, virulence, and prevention of viral infections in humans and animals. We also evaluated immune effects of schistosomes in those coinfected with viruses. We screened 4,730 studies and included 103. Schistosomes may increase susceptibility to some viruses, including HIV and Kaposi’s sarcoma-associated herpesvirus, and virulence of hepatitis B and C viruses. In contrast, schistosome infection may be protective in chronic HIV, Human T-cell Lymphotropic Virus-Type 1, and respiratory viruses, though further research is needed. Schistosome infections were consistently reported to impair immune responses to hepatitis B and possibly measles vaccines. Understanding the interplay between schistosomes and viruses has ramifications for anti-viral vaccination strategies and global control of viral infections.     

Spatial structure,host heterogeneity and parasite virulence: implications for vaccine‐driven evolution

Natural host‐parasite interactions exhibit considerable variation in host quality, with profound consequences for disease ecology and evolution. For instance, treatments (such as vaccination) may select for more transmissible or virulent strains. Previous theory has addressed the ecological and evolutionary impact of host heterogeneity under the assumption that hosts and parasites disperse globally. Here, we investigate the joint effects of host heterogeneity and local dispersal on the evolution of parasite life‐history traits. We first formalise a general theoretical framework combining variation in host quality and spatial structure. We then apply this model to the specific problem of parasite evolution following vaccination. We show that, depending on the type of vaccine, spatial structure may select for higher or lower virulence compared to the predictions of non‐spatial theory. We discuss the implications of our results for disease management, and their broader fundamental relevance for other causes of host heterogeneity in nature.     

Pathogenesis of Helicobacter pylori Infection

Although Helicobacter pylori infection is highly prevalent in the global human population, the majority of infected individuals remain asymptomatic. A complex combination of host, environmental, and bacterial factors are considered to determine susceptibility and severity of outcome in the subset of individuals that develop clinical disease. These factors collectively determine the ability of H.?pylori to colonize the gastric mucosa and profoundly influence the nature of the interaction that ensues. Many studies over the last year provide new insight into H.?pylori virulence strategies and the activities of critical bacterial determinants that modulate the host environment. These latter include the secreted proteins CagA and VacA and adhesins BabA and OipA, which directly interact with host tissues. Observations from several studies extend the functional repertoire of CagA and the cag type IV secretion system in particular, providing further mechanistic understanding of how these important determinants engage and activate host signalling pathways important in the development of disease.     

Heterogeneous host susceptibility enhances prevalence of mixed-genotype micro-parasite infections

Dose response in micro-parasite infections is usually shallower than predicted by the independent action model, which assumes that each infectious unit has a probability of infection that is independent of the presence of other infectious units. Moreover, the prevalence of mixed-genotype infections was greater than predicted by this model. No probabilistic infection model has been proposed to account for the higher prevalence of mixed-genotype infections. We use model selection within a set of four alternative models to explain high prevalence of mixed-genotype infections in combination with a shallow dose response. These models contrast dependent versus independent action of micro-parasite infectious units, and homogeneous versus heterogeneous host susceptibility. We specifically consider a situation in which genome differences between genotypes are minimal, and highly unlikely to result in genotype-genotype interactions. Data on dose response and mixed-genotype infection prevalence were collected by challenging fifth instar Spodoptera exigua larvae with two genotypes of Autographa californica multicapsid nucleopolyhedrovirus (AcMNPV), differing only in a 100 bp PCR marker sequence. We show that an independent action model that includes heterogeneity in host susceptibility can explain both the shallow dose response and the high prevalence of mixed-genotype infections. Theoretical results indicate that variation in host susceptibility is inextricably linked to increased prevalence of mixed-genotype infections. We have shown, to our knowledge for the first time, how heterogeneity in host susceptibility affects mixed-genotype infection prevalence. No evidence was found that virions operate dependently. While it has been recognized that heterogeneity in host susceptibility must be included in models of micro-parasite transmission and epidemiology to account for dose response, here we show that heterogeneity in susceptibility is also a fundamental principle explaining patterns of pathogen genetic diversity among hosts in a population. This principle has potentially wide implications for the monitoring, modeling and management of infectious diseases.     

Reviewing the ecological evidence base for management of emerging tropical zoonoses: Kyasanur Forest Disease in India as a case study

Zoonoses disproportionately affect tropical communities and are associated with human modification and use of ecosystems. Effective management is hampered by poor ecological understanding of disease transmission and often focuses on human vaccination or treatment. Better ecological understanding of multi-vector and multi-host transmission, social and environmental factors altering human exposure, might enable a broader suite of management options. Options may include “ecological interventions” that target vectors or hosts and require good knowledge of underlying transmission processes, which may be more effective, economical, and long lasting than conventional approaches. New frameworks identify the hierarchical series of barriers that a pathogen needs to overcome before human spillover occurs and demonstrate how ecological interventions may strengthen these barriers and complement human-focused disease control. We extend these frameworks for vector-borne zoonoses, focusing on Kyasanur Forest Disease Virus (KFDV), a tick-borne, neglected zoonosis affecting poor forest communities in India, involving complex communities of tick and host species. We identify the hierarchical barriers to pathogen transmission targeted by existing management. We show that existing interventions mainly focus on human barriers (via personal protection and vaccination) or at barriers relating to Kyasanur Forest Disease (KFD) vectors (tick control on cattle and at the sites of host (monkey) deaths). We review the validity of existing management guidance for KFD through literature review and interviews with disease managers. Efficacy of interventions was difficult to quantify due to poor empirical understanding of KFDV–vector–host ecology, particularly the role of cattle and monkeys in the disease transmission cycle. Cattle are hypothesised to amplify tick populations. Monkeys may act as sentinels of human infection or are hypothesised to act as amplifying hosts for KFDV, but the spatial scale of risk arising from ticks infected via monkeys versus small mammal reservoirs is unclear. We identified 19 urgent research priorities for refinement of current management strategies or development of ecological interventions targeting vectors and host barriers to prevent disease spillover in the future.     

Combatting the evolution of antifungal resistance in Cryptococcus neoformans

Fungal infections are a global concern and the evolution of intrinsic resistance to current antifungals presents an alarming problem. For Cryptococcus neoformans, a human fungal pathogen of primarily immunocompromised individuals, resistance toward treatment strategies demands alternative approaches. Given the prevalence of virulence factor production during cryptococcal infection, an emerging and important field of research encompasses the development of novel antivirulence therapies proposed to improve host immune responses and promote fungal clearance. To accomplish this task, information regarding the presence and role of virulence factors, the mechanisms of action within the host, and the ability to influence fungal susceptibility to antifungals is pertinent. Research into mechanisms of antifungal resistance for C. neoformans is limited but extrapolation from successful studies in other fungal species can improve our understanding of mechanisms employed by C. neoformans and suggest targeted strategies to enhance our ability to combat the pathogen. In this Review, we highlight antifungal therapy options against Cryptococcus, explore current knowledge of underlying mechanisms promoting resistance, and present new opportunities for novel and effective strategies to overcome fungal infections and reduce, or possibly even reverse, the effects of resistance evolution.     

Heterogeneity of Rift Valley fever virus transmission potential across livestock hosts,quantified through a model-based analysis of host viral load and vector infection

Quantifying the variation of pathogens’ life history traits in multiple host systems is crucial to understand their transmission dynamics. It is particularly important for arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses), which are prone to infecting several species of vertebrate hosts. Here, we focus on how host-pathogen interactions determine the ability of host species to transmit a virus to susceptible vectors upon a potentially infectious contact. Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a viral, vector-borne, zoonotic disease, chosen as a case study. The relative contributions of livestock species to RVFV transmission has not been previously quantified. To estimate their potential to transmit the virus over the course of their infection, we 1) fitted a within-host model to viral RNA and infectious virus measures, obtained daily from infected lambs, calves, and young goats, 2) estimated the relationship between vertebrate host infectious titers and probability to infect mosquitoes, and 3) estimated the net infectiousness of each host species over the duration of their infectious periods, taking into account different survival outcomes for lambs. Our results indicate that the efficiency of viral replication, along with the lifespan of infectious particles, could be sources of heterogeneity between hosts. Given available data on RVFV competent vectors, we found that, for similar infectious titers, infection rates in the Aedes genus were on average higher than in the Culex genus. Consequently, for Aedes-mediated infections, we estimated the net infectiousness of lambs to be 2.93 (median) and 3.65 times higher than that of calves and goats, respectively. In lambs, we estimated the overall infectiousness to be 1.93 times higher in individuals which eventually died from the infection than in those recovering. Beyond infectiousness, the relative contributions of host species to transmission depend on local ecological factors, including relative abundances and vector host-feeding preferences. Quantifying these contributions will ultimately help design efficient, targeted, surveillance and vaccination strategies.     

Superinfection and the coevolution of parasite virulence and host recovery

Parasite strategies of host exploitation may be affected by host defence strategies and multiple infections. In particular, within‐host competition between multiple parasite strains has been shown to select for higher virulence. However, little is known on how multiple infections could affect the coevolution between host recovery and parasite virulence. Here, we extend a coevolutionary model introduced by van Baalen (Proc. R. Soc. B, 265, 1998, 317) to account for superinfection. When the susceptibility to superinfection is low, we recover van Baalen's results and show that there are two potential evolutionary endpoints: one with avirulent parasites and poorly defended hosts, and another one with high virulence and high recovery. However, when the susceptibility to superinfection is above a threshold, the only possible evolutionary outcome is one with high virulence and high investment into defence. We also show that within‐host competition may select for lower host recovery, as a consequence of selection for more virulent strains. We discuss how different parasite and host strategies (superinfection facilitation, competitive exclusion) as well as demographic and environmental parameters, such as host fecundity or various costs of defence, may affect the interplay between multiple infections and host–parasite coevolution. Our model shows the interplay between coevolutionary dynamics and multiple infections may be affected by crucial mechanistic or ecological details.     

Interactions between host sex and age of exposure modify the virulence–transmission trade‐off

The patterns of immunity conferred by host sex or age represent two sources of host heterogeneity that can potentially shape the evolutionary trajectory of disease. With each host sex or age encountered, a pathogen's optimal exploitative strategy may change, leading to considerable variation in expression of pathogen transmission and virulence. To date, these host characteristics have been studied in the context of host fitness alone, overlooking the effects of host sex and age on the fundamental virulence–transmission trade‐off faced by pathogens. Here, we explicitly address the interaction of these characteristics and find that host sex and age at exposure to a pathogen affect age‐specific patterns of mortality and the balance between pathogen transmission and virulence. When infecting age‐structured male and female Daphnia magna with different genotypes of Pasteuria ramosa, we found that infection increased mortality rates across all age classes for females, whereas mortality only increased in the earliest age class for males. Female hosts allowed a variety of trade‐offs between transmission and virulence to arise with each age and pathogen genotype. In contrast, this variation was dampened in males, with pathogens exhibiting declines in both virulence and transmission with increasing host age. Our results suggest that differences in exploitation potential of males and females to a pathogen can interact with host age to allow different virulence strategies to coexist, and illustrate the potential for these widespread sources of host heterogeneity to direct the evolution of disease in natural populations.     

Virulence and age at reproduction: new insights into host–parasite coevolution

We consider an explicit mutation–selection process to investigate the dynamics underlying the coevolution of parasite’s virulence and host’s prereproductive life span in a system with discrete generations. Conforming with earlier models, our model predicts that virulence generally increases with natural mortality of the host, and that a moderate increase in virulence selects for lower ages at reproduction. However, the epidemiological feedback in our model also gives rise to unusual and unexpected patterns. In particular, if virulence is sufficiently high the model can lead to a bifurcation pattern, where two strategies coexist in the host population. The first is to develop rapidly to reproduce before being infected. Individuals following this strategy suffer, however, from reduced fecundity. The second strategy is to develop much more slowly. Because of the high virulence, the effective period of transmission is short, so that a few slowly developing individuals escape infection. These individuals, although choosing a risky strategy, benefit from high fecundity.     

The diverse roles of autophagy in medically important fungi

Autophagy is a highly conserved eukaryotic mechanism whereby cells recycle cellular elements to survive under adverse conditions. Surprisingly, of the three fungal pathogens of greatest relevance to human health, only Cryptococcus neoformans has been shown to require this process during infection. In contrast, autophagy is dispensable for the virulence of both Candida albicans and Aspergillus fumigatus. The divergent roles for autophagy in these opportunistic species underscore the uniqueness of the host infection niche occupied by each fungus and provide insights into the evolutionary pressures that may have influenced the need for autophagy during infection. Further study of fungal autophagy may reveal the host signals which induce this protective response and determine if these signals differ between host cells or tissues. In addition, a comprehensive understanding of the autophagy machinery in fungal pathogens may provide a rational basis for the design of future therapeutic interventions to improve outcome in patients who are at risk for these infections.