Imperfect vaccination: some epidemiological and evolutionary consequences

An aim of some vaccination programmes is to reduce the prevalence of an infectious disease and ultimately to eradicate it. We show that eradication success depends on the type of vaccine as well as on the vaccination coverage. Vaccines that reduce the parasite within-host growth rate select for higher parasite virulence and this evolution may both increase the prevalence of the disease and prevent disease eradication. By contrast, vaccines that reduce the probability of infection select against virulence and may lead more easily to eradication. In some cases, epidemiological feedback on parasite evolution yields an evolutionary bistable situation where, for intermediate vaccination coverage, parasites can evolve towards either high or low virulence, depending on the initial conditions. These results have practical implications for the design and use of imperfect vaccines in public- and animal-health programmes.     

The evolution and evolutionary consequences of marginal thermostability in proteins

When we seek to explain the characteristics of living systems in their evolutionary context, we are often interested in understanding how and why certain properties arose through evolution, and how these properties then affected the continuing evolutionary process. This endeavor has been assisted by the use of simple computational models that have properties characteristic of natural living systems but allow simulations over evolutionary timescales with full transparency. We examine a model of the evolution of a gene under selective pressure to code for a protein that exists in a prespecified folded state at a given growth temperature. We observe the emergence of proteins with modest stabilities far below those possible with the model, with a denaturation temperature tracking the simulation temperature, despite the absence of selective pressure for such marginal stability. This demonstrates that neither observations of marginally stable proteins, nor even instances where increased stability interferes with function, provide evidence that marginal stability is an adaptation. Instead the marginal stability is the result of a balance between predominantly destabilizing mutations and selection that shifts depending on effective population size. Even if marginal stability is not an adaptation, the natural tendency of proteins toward marginal stability, and the range of stabilities that occur during evolution, may have significant effect on the evolutionary process.     

Epidemiological and evolutionary consequences of different types of CRISPR-Cas systems

Bacteria have adaptive immunity against viruses (phages) in the form of CRISPR-Cas immune systems. Currently, 6 types of CRISPR-Cas systems are known and the molecular study of three of these has revealed important molecular differences. It is unknown if and how these molecular differences change the outcome of phage infection and the evolutionary pressure the CRISPR-Cas systems faces. To determine the importance of these molecular differences, we model a phage outbreak entering a population defending exclusively with a type I/II or a type III CRISPR-Cas system. We show that for type III CRISPR-Cas systems, rapid phage extinction is driven by the probability to acquire at least one resistance spacer. However, for type I/II CRISPR-Cas systems, rapid phage extinction is characterized by an a threshold-like behaviour: any acquisition probability below this threshold leads to phage survival whereas any acquisition probability above it, results in phage extinction. We also show that in the absence of autoimmunity, high acquisition rates evolve. However, when CRISPR-Cas systems are prone to autoimmunity, intermediate levels of acquisition are optimal during a phage outbreak. As we predict an optimal probability of spacer acquisition 2 factors of magnitude above the one that has been measured, we discuss the origin of such a discrepancy. Finally, we show that in a biologically relevant parameter range, a type III CRISPR-Cas system can outcompete a type I/II CRISPR-Cas system with a slightly higher probability of acquisition.     

Spatial structure,host heterogeneity and parasite virulence: implications for vaccine‐driven evolution

Natural host‐parasite interactions exhibit considerable variation in host quality, with profound consequences for disease ecology and evolution. For instance, treatments (such as vaccination) may select for more transmissible or virulent strains. Previous theory has addressed the ecological and evolutionary impact of host heterogeneity under the assumption that hosts and parasites disperse globally. Here, we investigate the joint effects of host heterogeneity and local dispersal on the evolution of parasite life‐history traits. We first formalise a general theoretical framework combining variation in host quality and spatial structure. We then apply this model to the specific problem of parasite evolution following vaccination. We show that, depending on the type of vaccine, spatial structure may select for higher or lower virulence compared to the predictions of non‐spatial theory. We discuss the implications of our results for disease management, and their broader fundamental relevance for other causes of host heterogeneity in nature.     

Evolution of virulence in a heterogeneous host population

Abstract.— There is a large body of theoretical studies that investigate factors that affect the evolution of virulence, that is parasite-induced host mortality. In these studies the host population is assumed to be genetically homogeneous. However, many parasites have a broad range of host types they infect, and trade-offs between the parasite virulence in different host types may exist. The aim of this paper is to study the effect of host heterogeneity on the evolution of parasite virulence. By analyzing a simple model that describes the replication of different parasite strains in a population of two different host types, we determine the optimal level of virulence in both host types and find the conditions under which strains that specialize in one host type dominate the parasite population. Furthermore, we show that intrahost evolution of the parasite during an infection may lead to stable polymorphisms and could introduce evolutionary branching in the parasite population.     

Wolbachia host shifts: routes,mechanisms, constraints and evolutionary consequences

Wolbachia is one of the most abundant endosymbionts on earth, with a wide distribution especially in arthropods. Effective maternal transmission and the induction of various phenotypes in their hosts are two key features of this bacterium. Here, we review our current understanding of another central aspect of Wolbachia's success: their ability to switch from one host species to another. We build on the proposal that Wolbachia host shifts occur in four main steps: (i) physical transfer to a new species; (ii) proliferation within that host; (iii) successful maternal transmission; and (iv) spread within the host species. Host shift can fail at each of these steps, and the likelihood of ultimate success is influenced by many factors. Some stem from traits of Wolbachia (different strains have different abilities for host switching), others on host features such as genetic resemblance (e.g. host shifting is likely to be easier between closely related species), ecological connections (the donor and recipient host need to interact), or the resident microbiota. Host shifts have enabled Wolbachia to reach its enormous current incidence and global distribution among arthropods in an epidemiological process shaped by loss and acquisition events across host species. The ability of Wolbachia to transfer between species also forms the basis of ongoing endeavours to control pests and disease vectors, following artificial introduction into uninfected hosts such as mosquitoes. Throughout, we emphasise the many knowledge gaps in our understanding of Wolbachia host shifts, and question the effectiveness of current methodology to detect these events. We conclude by discussing an apparent paradox: how can Wolbachia maintain its ability to undergo host shifts given that its biology seems dominated by vertical transmission?     

Functional and evolutionary consequences of cranial fenestration in birds

Ostrich‐like birds (Palaeognathae) show very little taxonomic diversity while their sister taxon (Neognathae) contains roughly 10,000 species. The main anatomical differences between the two taxa are in the crania. Palaeognaths lack an element in the bill called the lateral bar that is present in both ancestral theropods and modern neognaths, and have thin zones in the bones of the bill, and robust bony elements on the ventral surface of their crania. Here we use a combination of modeling and developmental experiments to investigate the processes that might have led to these differences. Engineering‐based finite element analyses indicate that removing the lateral bars from a neognath increases mechanical stress in the upper bill and the ventral elements of the skull, regions that are either more robust or more flexible in palaeognaths. Surgically removing the lateral bar from neognath hatchlings led to similar changes. These results indicate that the lateral bar is load‐bearing and suggest that this function was transferred to other bony elements when it was lost in palaeognaths. It is possible that the loss of the load‐bearing lateral bar might have constrained diversification of skull morphology in palaeognaths and thus limited taxonomic diversity within the group.     

Effector gene screening allows unambiguous identification of Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. lycopersici races and discrimination from other formae speciales

During infection of tomato, the fungus Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. lycopersici secretes several unique proteins, called 'secreted in xylem' (Six) proteins, into the xylem sap. At least some of these proteins promote virulence towards tomato and among them, all predicted avirulence proteins that can trigger disease resistance in tomato have been found. In this study, a large, worldwide collection of F. oxysporum isolates was screened for the presence of seven SIX genes ( SIX1 – SIX7 ). The results convincingly show that identification of F. oxysporum formae speciales and races based on host-specific virulence genes can be very robust. SIX1, SIX2, SIX3 and SIX5 can be used for unambiguous identification of the forma specialis lycopersici . In addition, SIX4 can be used for the identification of race 1 strains, while polymorphisms in SIX3 can be exploited to differentiate race 2 from race 3 strains. For SIX6 and SIX7 , close homologs were found in a few other formae speciales , suggesting that these genes may play a more general role in pathogenicity. Host specificity may be determined by the unique SIX genes, possibly in combination with the absence of genes that trigger resistance in the host.     

Sexually transmitted infections in polygamous mating systems

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) are often associated with chronic diseases and can have severe impacts on host reproductive success. For airborne or socially transmitted pathogens, patterns of contact by which the infection spreads tend to be dispersed and each contact may be of very short duration. By contrast, the transmission pathways for STIs are usually characterized by repeated contacts with a small subset of the population. Here we review how heterogeneity in sexual contact patterns can influence epidemiological dynamics, and present a simple model of polygyny/polyandry to illustrate the impact of biased mating systems on disease incidence and pathogen virulence.     

Within-host population dynamics and the evolution of microparasites in a heterogeneous host population

Abstract Why do parasites harm their hosts? The general understanding is that if the transmission rate and virulence of a parasite are linked, then the parasite must harm its host to maximize its transmission. The exact nature of such trade‐offs remains largely unclear, but for vertebrate hosts it probably involves interactions between a microparasite and the host immune system. Previous results have suggested that in a homogeneous host population in the absence of super‐ or coinfection, within‐host dynamics lead to selection of the parasite with an intermediate growth rate that is just being controlled by the immune system before it kills the host (Antia et al. 1994). In this paper, we examine how this result changes when heterogeneity is introduced to the host population. We incorporate the simplest form of heterogeneity–random heterogeneity in the parameters describing the size of the initial parasite inoculum, the immune response of the host, and the lethal density at which the parasite kills the host. We find that the general conclusion of the previous model holds: parasites evolve some intermediate growth rate. However, in contrast with the generally accepted view, we find that virulence (measured by the case mortality or the rate of parasite‐induced host mortality) increases with heterogeneity. Finally, we link the within‐host and between‐host dynamics of parasites. We show how the parameters for epidemiological spread of the disease can be estimated from the within‐host dynamics, and in doing so examine the way in which trade‐offs between these epidemiological parameters arise as a consequence of the interaction of the parasite and the immune response of the host.     

Developing insect models for the study of current and emerging human pathogens

The study of human diseases requires the testing of microorganisms in model systems. Although mammals are typically used, we argue the validity of using insects as models in order to examine human diseases, particularly the growing number of opportunistic microorganisms. Insects can be used in large numbers, are easily manipulated, and are not subject to the same ethical concerns as mammalian systems. Insects and mammals have many parallels with respect to microbial pathogenesis, from proteinaceous integuments that require breaching before infection to similarities in their innate immune responses. Reactions of insects to Candida and Pseudomonas spp. infections show good correlation with mouse models, providing precedent-setting examples of the study of human pathogens using insects. Insects as pathogen hosts also warrant study because they may act as reservoirs for emerging human pathogens. Finally, insect models may be used to examine the evolutionary processes involved in the acquisition of virulence factors and host-jumping mechanisms indispensable to emerging pathogens. Insect models may be used in 'niche' investigations where large sample sizes can facilitate rapid, informative screening of opportunistic diseases and provide insights into pathogen evolution, while reducing the cost and ethical concerns associated with mammalian models.     

Regulatory links between imprinted genes: evolutionary predictions and consequences

Genomic imprinting is essential for development and growth and plays diverse roles in physiology and behaviour. Imprinted genes have traditionally been studied in isolation or in clusters with respect to cis-acting modes of gene regulation, both from a mechanistic and evolutionary point of view. Recent studies in mammals, however, reveal that imprinted genes are often co-regulated and are part of a gene network involved in the control of cellular proliferation and differentiation. Moreover, a subset of imprinted genes acts in trans on the expression of other imprinted genes. Numerous studies have modulated levels of imprinted gene expression to explore phenotypic and gene regulatory consequences. Increasingly, the applied genome-wide approaches highlight how perturbation of one imprinted gene may affect other maternally or paternally expressed genes. Here, we discuss these novel findings and consider evolutionary theories that offer a rationale for such intricate interactions among imprinted genes. An evolutionary view of these trans-regulatory effects provides a novel interpretation of the logic of gene networks within species and has implications for the origin of reproductive isolation between species.     

Predicting evolutionary predictability

The observation that phenotypic convergence and genetic convergence are widespread in nature implies that evolution is at least somewhat predictable. But to what extent and under what circumstances? In other words, how predictable is evolutionary predictability? Answering this question requires going beyond documenting examples of repeated evolution to actually quantifying predictability at different hierarchical levels. At present, few such studies exist. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Chaturvedi et al. ( 2018 ) quantify the predictability of genomewide changes that accompany shifts to an introduced host plant (alfalfa) in populations of the Melissa blue butterfly (Lycaeides melissa). They evaluate predictability in two contexts: (i) overlap in host‐associated loci among populations that have independently colonized alfalfa, and (ii) overlap between host‐associated loci in nature and loci associated with host performance in laboratory experiments. Overall, they find that the genomic changes that accompany host shifts in this system are indeed somewhat predictable. However, the degree of predictability depends on the type of comparison (among natural populations vs. between natural and experimental populations), type of convergence (specific genomic locations vs. direction of allele frequency change), geographic scale (rangewide vs. specific population pairs) and location in the genome (autosomes vs. sex chromosomes). Together with a handful of comparable data sets, Chaturvedi et al.'s ( 2018 ) work suggests that the relative contribution of stochastic and deterministic processes to genomewide responses to novel selection pressures may be highly variable, but possibly predictably so.     

The likelihood node density effect and consequences for evolutionary studies of molecular rates

Many molecular phylogenies show longer root-to-tip path lengths in species-rich groups, encouraging hypotheses linking cladogenesis with accelerated molecular evolution. However, the pattern can also be caused by an artifact called the node density effect (NDE): this effect occurs when the method used to reconstruct a tree underestimates multiple hits that would have been revealed by extra nodes, leading to longer root-to-tip path lengths in clades with more terminal taxa. Here we use a twofold approach to demonstrate that maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods also suffer from the NDE known to affect parsimony. First, simulations deliberately mismatching the simulation and reconstruction models show that the greater the model disparity, the greater the gap between actual and reconstructed tree lengths, and the greater the NDE. Second, taxon sampling manipulation with empirical data shows that NDE can still be present when using optimized models: across 12 datasets, 70 out of 109 sister path comparisons showed significant evidence of NDE. Unless the model fairly accurately reconstructs the real tree length-and given the complexity of real sequence evolution this may be uncommon -- it will consistently produce a node density artifact. At commonly encountered divergence levels, a 10% underestimation of tree length results in > or = 80% of simulated phylogenies showing a positive NDE. Bayesian trees have a slight but consistently stronger effect. This pervasive methodological artifact increases apparent rate heterogeneity, and can compromise investigations of factors influencing molecular evolutionary rate that use path lengths in topologically asymmetric trees.     

Reversal of evolutionary downsizing caused by selective harvest of large fish

Evolutionary responses to the long-term exploitation of individuals from a population may include reduced growth rate, age at maturation, body size and productivity. Theoretical models suggest that these genetic changes may be slow or impossible to reverse but rigorous empirical evidence is lacking. Here, we provide the first empirical demonstration of a genetically based reversal of fishing-induced evolution. We subjected six populations of silverside fish (Menidia menidia) to three forms of size-selective fishing for five generations, thereby generating twofold differences among populations in mean weight and yield (biomass) at harvest. This was followed by an additional five generations during which size-selective harvest was halted. We found that evolutionary changes were reversible. Populations evolving smaller body size when subjected to size-selective fishing displayed a slow but significant increase in size when fishing ceased. Neither phenotypic variance in size nor juvenile survival was reduced by the initial period of selective fishing, suggesting that sufficient genetic variation remained to allow recovery. By linear extrapolation, we predict full recovery in about 12 generations, although the rate of recovery may taper off near convergence. The recovery rate in any given wild population will also depend on other agents of selection determined by the specifics of life history and environment. By contrast, populations that in the first five generations evolved larger size and yield showed little evidence of reversal. These results show that populations have an intrinsic capacity to recover genetically from harmful evolutionary changes caused by fishing, even without extrinsic factors that reverse the selection gradient. However, harvested species typically have generation times of 3–7 years, so recovery may take decades. Hence, the need to account for evolution in managing fisheries remains.     

Applying population-genetic models in theoretical evolutionary epidemiology

Much of the existing theory for the evolutionary biology of infectious diseases uses an invasion analysis approach. In this Ideas and Perspectives article, we suggest that techniques from theoretical population genetics can also be profitably used to study the evolutionary epidemiology of infectious diseases. We highlight four ways in which population-genetic models provide benefits beyond those provided by most invasion analyses: (i) they can make predictions about the rate of pathogen evolution; (ii) they explicitly draw out the mechanistic way in which the epidemiological dynamics feed into evolutionary change, and thereby provide new insights into pathogen evolution; (iii) they can make predictions about the evolutionary consequences of non-equilibrium epidemiological dynamics; (iv) they can readily incorporate the effects of multiple host dynamics, and thereby account for phenomena such as immunological history and/or host co-evolution.     

Unrestricted migration favours virulent pathogens in experimental metapopulations: evolutionary genetics of a rapacious life history

Understanding pathogen infectivity and virulence requires combining insights from epidemiology, ecology, evolution and genetics. Although theoretical work in these fields has identified population structure as important for pathogen life-history evolution, experimental tests are scarce. Here, we explore the impact of population structure on life-history evolution in phage T4, a viral pathogen of Escherichia coli. The host–pathogen system is propagated as a metapopulation in which migration between subpopulations is either spatially restricted or unrestricted. Restricted migration favours pathogens with low infectivity and low virulence. Unrestricted migration favours pathogens that enter and exit their hosts quickly, although they are less productive owing to rapid extirpation of the host population. The rise of such ‘rapacious’ phage produces a ‘tragedy of the commons’, in which better competitors lower productivity. We have now identified a genetic basis for a rapacious life history. Mutations at a single locus (rI) cause increased virulence and are sufficient to account for a negative relationship between phage competitive ability and productivity. A higher frequency of rI mutants under unrestricted migration signifies the evolution of rapaciousness in this treatment. Conversely, spatially restricted migration favours a more ‘prudent’ pathogen strategy, in which the tragedy of the commons is averted. As our results illustrate, profound epidemiological and ecological consequences of life-history evolution in a pathogen can have a simple genetic cause.