The increase in the Corncrake Crex crex population of the United Kingdom has slowed

Capsule The UK Corncrake population increase has slowed, but has rapidly recovered from a large decline in 2013.

Aims To provide an update on the population size and distribution of breeding Corncrakes in the UK, including the results of the most recent full national survey and annual monitoring of the core population.

Methods A full survey of singing Corncrakes was undertaken in the UK and the Isle of Man in 2009, following the last full censuses in 1978/79, 1988, 1993, 1998 and 2003. Monitoring of singing male Corncrakes within the core range in northern and western Scotland has been undertaken annually since 1993.

Results The 2009 results show that numbers increased substantially since 2003, from 829 to 1166 singing males. Corncrake numbers in the core range have increased in 17 of the 21 years between 1993 and 2014, and peaked at 1274 singing males, in 2014. Numbers of singing males dropped by 24% between 2012 and 2013, probably due to a particularly cold spring in 2013 that inhibited growth of vegetation cover, but numbers recovered markedly in 2014.

Conclusion The recovery of the UK Corncrake population has continued since a low point in 1993. However there are no signs of range expansion into mainland UK, away from the core breeding areas in Scotland. The large decline in the core population between 2012 and 2013 highlights the sensitivity of the population to external factors, although the subsequent increase in 2014 shows a capacity for rapid recovery.     

Status of the Hen Harrier Circus cyaneus in the UK and the Isle of Man in 1998

A survey of breeding Hen Harriers in the UK and the Isle of Man carried out in 1998 consisted of two parts: a complete census of 10-km squares at the core of the species'known range, and a random sample of 10-km squares across the rest of its known recent range. From this, the UK and Isle of Man breeding population was estimated at 570 territorial pairs: 436 in Scotland, 19 in England, 28 in Wales, 38 in Northern Ireland and 49 on the Isle of Man. Although there was no overall change in the size of the UK and Isle of Man population between 1988–94 and 1998, numbers declined in Orkney and increased in Northern Ireland. In Scotland, numbers increased on grouse moors and decreased in young plantation between 1988–89 and 1998, so that 55% of the population is now found on grouse moor. A similar situation exists in England, but in Northern Ireland 45% of the population was found breeding in open areas within mature conifer plantations in 1998.     

Partial recovery of the population of Corncrakes Crex crex in Britain, 1993–2004

Capsule Singing male Corncrakes increased more than two-fold over the study period.

Aim To provide updated counts of the number and distribution of singing male Corncrakes in Britain and describe the implementation of schemes in which land management was modified to benefit Corncrakes.

Methods Annual surveys of singing Corncrakes in the core of the range in Britain were undertaken between 1993 and 2004 and the total population of the species throughout Britain was assessed in 2003. Annual information on the extent and location of the various conservation management schemes was obtained from the authorities that administer them.

Results Following a long-term decline, the count of Corncrakes in the core of the species' British range increased in ten of the 11 years since 1993. A survey of the core of the range in 2004 located 1040 singing males, a 2.3-fold increase on the 446 singing males located in the same area in 1993. A full survey of Britain and the Isle of Man in 2003 located 832 singing males in 81 10-km National Grid squares. This compares with 589 birds in 93 squares in the last full survey in 1998, and 480 birds in 83 squares in 1993. During 1993–2003, more than 70% of Corncrakes in the core area occurred in 1-km National Grid squares in which conservation schemes were implemented. For males in squares with some conservation management, the average area of managed land to which each bird potentially had exclusive access was about 5 hectares. About half of the tall grass present in 1-km squares occupied by Corncrakes was included in schemes intended to modify mowing or grazing to reduce losses of nests and chicks.

Conclusion There has been a partial recovery of the population of Corncrakes in Britain since 1993, reversing a decline that began in the late 19th and early 20th centuries. However, the geographical range of the species, measured as occupied 10-km grid squares, has not increased. The recovery occurred during a period in which a significant area of land, to which the majority of Corncrakes had access, was entered into conservation management schemes intended to benefit the species. Estimated changes in breeding productivity likely to be associated with changes in grass-mowing management on the observed scale were approximately sufficient to account for the observed change in population trend.     

Status of the Hen Harrier Circus cyaneus in the UK and Isle of Man in 2004, and a comparison with the 1988/89 and 1998 surveys

Capsule The population of breeding Hen Harriers in the UK and Isle of Man increased between 1998 and 2004, although country and regional trends differed.

Aims To estimate the size of the UK and Isle of Man Hen Harrier breeding population in 2004, and to compare this with previous estimates made in 1988/89 and 1998.

Methods Surveys were carried out in core and a stratified random sample of 10-km squares throughout the known range, using the same methods as in the 1988/89 and 1998 national surveys.

Results There were an estimated 806 territorial pairs in the UK and Isle of Man in 2004, a significant 41% increase from the 1998 estimate of 570 pairs. Increases were found throughout, with the exception of south and east Scotland and England, where numbers decreased. Scotland held 79% of the UK and Isle of Man breeding population in 2004, and 10% of Scottish pairs were associated with non-moorland habitats, such as mature conifer plantations and scrub/brash.

Conclusions There was a substantial increase in the breeding population in most regions of the UK and Isle of Man between 1998 and 2004, possibly aided by increased use of non-moorland habitats. However, populations declined in upland areas of southern and eastern Scotland and northern England. Continuing illegal persecution arising from perceived conflicts between breeding Hen Harriers and driven grouse shooting may be a major cause of these regional declines.     

The population status of breeding Twite Linaria flavirostris in the UK in 2013

Capsule: The second national survey of Twite Linaria flavirostris estimated a UK breeding population of 7831 pairs (95% confidence limits: 5829–10?137) in 2013.

Aims: To estimate the breeding population size of Twite in the UK and constituent countries and to calculate change since the 1999 survey.

Methods: Counts of Twite were made on three visits between May and July across a stratified random sample of 1-km squares in England, Scotland and Wales. In Northern Ireland, a complete census was made of the known range and adjacent 1-km squares with suitable habitat. Field surveys involved walking line transects 200 m apart and, in suitable nesting habitat, making 5-minute stops at 100 m intervals to scan and listen for Twite.

Results: The UK population of Twite was estimated at 7831 pairs (95% CL: 5829–10?137). This was 21% lower but not significantly different from the 1999 survey estimate. Scotland held 98% of the UK population (7640, 95% CL: 5629–9954). There were an estimated 164 pairs (95% CL: 76–297) in England, a significant decline of 72% from 1999. Estimated totals for Wales and Northern Ireland were 16 (95% CL: 10–24) and 18 pairs respectively.

Conclusion: The second national survey suggests a moderate decline in the UK Twite population since 1999 but with considerable variation between countries. Further work is required to understand the drivers of population change across breeding populations.     

The status of the Hen Harrier,Circus cyaneus,in the UK and Isle of Man in 2010

Capsule The fourth national survey of Hen Harrier showed that the population in the UK and the Isle of Man declined significantly between 2004 and 2010.

Aim To estimate the size of the breeding Hen Harrier population (with associated 95% confidence intervals) in the UK and Isle of Man, constituent countries and Scottish regions, in 2010 and calculate population change since previous surveys in 1998 and 2004.

Methods Complete surveys were made of 10-km squares likely to be occupied by breeding Hen Harriers in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man, using standard methods developed for previous national surveys. In Scotland, a ‘census’ area was non-randomly selected for survey by volunteers, and randomly selected squares were surveyed in two strata covering the rest of the known range.

Results The UK and Isle of Man Hen Harrier population was estimated at 662 territorial pairs (95% confidence interval (CI): 576–770), a significant decline of 18% since 2004. Scotland holds the bulk (76%) of the population (505 territorial pairs; 95% CI: 417–612), with smaller numbers in Northern Ireland (59 pairs), Wales (57 pairs), the Isle of Man (29 pairs) and England (12 pairs). Declines of 49% and 20% were observed in the Isle of Man and in Scotland, respectively, whereas the Welsh population increased by 33%. A significant decrease was recorded in numbers of pairs using young and mature plantation forest in Scotland.

Conclusion The breeding population of Hen Harriers in the UK and Isle of Man declined between 2004 and 2010. Notable decreases in Scotland and the Isle of Man may be related to habitat change and illegal persecution. Illegal persecution continues to limit the population size of harriers in England to very low levels.     

The status of the Cirl Bunting Emberiza cirlus in the UK and the Channel Islands in 1998

A survey of breeding Cirl Buntings in the United Kingdom and the Channel Islands was undertaken in 1998. An estimated 453 (95% CI, 415–504) territories were recorded in 103 tetrads in Devon. This amounts to an increase of 29% in the Devon population since the last full survey in 1993, when 352 territories were recorded in 95 tetrads. In addition, nine territories were located on the island of Jersey in 1998 although none were found elsewhere. In 1993 there were 18 singing males on Jersey with a further two in both Cornwall and Somerset. The Cirl Bunting population in Devon seems to be consolidating rather than expanding as the only significant increase in numbers between 1993 and 1998 was from those tetrads occupied in both years. This paper also summarizes the results of surveys during 1989–97 and assesses the changes in the Cirl Bunting population over that period.     

The summer decline of the collared lemming, Dicrostonyx groenlandicus, in high arctic Greenland

I studied the population structure and dynamics of the collared lemming, Dicrostonyx groenlandicus Traill, on Traill Island (NE Greenland) in 1998 to 2000. This is the first comprehensive study of a Greenlandic collared lemming population. During this period, population density continuously declined (>100 fold-decrease) from more than 10 ind/ha (peak year 1998) to less than 0.1 ind/ha (low year 2000), with the exception of one period of increase in the winter 1998–99. Several population parameters were correlated with these changes in density. Average body mass was greater in the peak year than in the intermediate year (1999) and greater in August than in July in both years. Growth rates were only positive in 1998 and only for young lemmings. Females had unexpectedly larger home ranges than males and were more mobile than males during the decline phase (1999). Poor recruitment and high predation rates (up to 3.4% per day for females in 1998) were the proximate causes of the summer declines in the study area. A simple calculation shows that even with a maximal rate of increase, this lemming population would not have been able to compensate for the high predation rate, and hence it necessarily faced a predation-induced summer decline during the part of population oscillation studied.     

Population parameters and reproductive biology of the Iberian hareLepus granatensis in southern Iberia

To analyse the population structure and reproductive biology of the Iberian hareLepus granatensis Rosenhauer, 1856, 498 hares (264 males and 234 females) were collected in monthly samples from October 1998 to September 1999. Females reached larger sizes than males, with approximately 400 g difference in body mass on reaching sexual maturity. The total sex ratio was 1∶1, with a bias in favour of males in winter. Sexually active males and females appeared in every month but August, when no sexually active female was found. Births occurred in every month and were more frequent between March and July. Seasonal variation in kidney fat index (KFI) followed a similar pattern in males and females, with an increase in mid-autumn and a decline at the end of winter. Reproductive activity appeared in every month, with a maximum from February to June. Reproductively hyperactive females (simultaneously pregnant and nursing) appeared in every month except in January, with a first peak in March and a second lower peak in May–June. Litter size fluctuated between 1 and 7 leverets. The most frequent gestations involved 1 or 2 foetuses. The mean annual litter size was 2.08 and the average number of litters per productive female per year was estimated to be 3.48. The maximum productivity was recorded between March and May. The total annual production of young per adult female was estimated to be 7.21. The minimum annual survival rate of young was 27.91%. On the basis of these results we propose to maintain the limit of the hunting period between October and December. We discuss the relationship between the low young/adult ratio obtained and the hunting method used.     

FIRST ESTIMATES OF VAQUITA ABUNDANCE

The abundance of the only population of vaquitas, Gulf of California harbor porpoise ( Phocoena sinus ), is estimated from four surveys conducted in Mexico between 1986 and 1993, using a variety of methods. A line-transect approach was applied, using some parameters estimated from a related species, the harbor porpoise ( Phocoena phocoena ). Vaquita abundance is estimated as 503 (CV = 0.63) from 1986–1988 boat surveys, 885 (CV = 0.50) from 1988–1989 aerial surveys, 572 (CV = 1.43) from a 1991 aerial survey, and 224 (CV = 0.39) from a 1993 ship survey. A weighted log-linear regression indicates a rate of population change (decline) of −17.7% per year (95% CI =−43.2% to +19.3%) between 1986 and 1993. All of these estimates of vaquita abundance indicate that the species is at a critically low level.     

Status of the Hen Harrier Circus cyaneus in the UK and Isle of Man in 2016

Capsule: The fifth UK and the Isle of Man survey of Hen Harrier in 2016 showed varying trends by country and region.

Aim: To estimate the size of the breeding Hen Harrier population (with associated 95% confidence intervals) in the UK and Isle of Man, constituent countries and Scottish regions, in 2016 and calculate population change over the five surveys to date.

Methods: Complete surveys were made of all 10-km squares likely to be occupied by breeding Hen Harriers in England, Wales, Northern Ireland and the Isle of Man, using standard methods developed for previous national surveys. In Scotland, self-selected 10-km squares were surveyed by volunteers and a stratified random selection of the remaining 10-km squares within the known breeding range was surveyed.

Results: The UK and Isle of Man Hen Harrier population was estimated at 575 territorial pairs (95% confidence limits, 477–694), a non-significant decline of 13% since 2010 but a significant decline of 24% since 2004. Scotland held the majority (80%) of the population with 460 (359–573) territorial pairs. Elsewhere, 46 territorial pairs were recorded in Northern Ireland, 35 in Wales, 30 in the Isle of Man and four in England. Significant decreases were recorded in the number of pairs in Scotland using grouse moor (?57%) and young forest (?54%).

Conclusion: The combined breeding population of Hen Harriers in the UK and Isle of Man has shown a non-significant decline between 2010 and 2016. There were notable decreases in England, Northern Ireland and Wales since 2010.     

Survivorship of a declining population of southern elephant seals, Mirounga leonina, in relation to age, sex and cohort

This study quantified both the age- and sex-specific survival rates of juveniles and adults, and tested for interannual differences in age-specific survival rates of the southern elephant seal population at Marion Island. Pups were tagged on an annual basis from 1983 onwards at Marion Island, and a consistent recapture program yielded data that was analysed using the software package MARK to obtain maximum-likelihood estimates of survival and capture probability. On average, 1st-year survival was 0.58 and 0.62, and survival rate averaged over the first 3 years of life, 0.69 and 0.74 for males and females, respectively. From years 4 to 9, the average survival rate was 0.66 and 0.75 for males and females, respectively. Survival estimates for elephant seals in their 10th–13th year are also presented, although these are based on very small sample sizes. Averages of age-specific survival estimates from the earlier (mostly 1983–1987 cohorts) and later (mostly 1988–1992 cohorts) periods were compared and considerable reductions were observed in 4th- and 5th-year male survival, and 4th-year female survival. The comparatively low adult survival is suggested as the proximate cause, and food limitation as deduced from the decline in survival of elephant seals with comparatively high energetic demands as the ultimate cause behind the population decline at Marion Island. Although not tied in with the decline of the population, 1987, 1990 and 1993 were identified as high-mortality years. Received: 14 December 1998 / Accepted: 14 June 1999     

Breeding status of Merlins Falco columbarius in the UK in 2008

Capsule The third national Merlin survey estimated a UK population of 1162 breeding pairs (95% CI: 891–1462).

Aims To estimate the number of breeding Merlins (with associated 95% confidence intervals) in the UK and the four countries (Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland), and to compare these with the relevant estimates from the 1993–94 Merlin survey. In addition, to calculate estimates of change for several regional populations with complete survey coverage during both national surveys.

Methods A subset of 10-km squares (Raptor Study Group squares and randomly sampled squares) was surveyed across the breeding distribution of Merlins in the UK using standardised methods devised during the 1993–94 national survey.

Results The population estimate for Merlins in the UK was 1162 breeding pairs, and in Britain was 1128 pairs (95% CI: 849–1427), which although 13% lower, was not significantly different from the British estimate of the 1993–94 survey. Scotland held the bulk (733 pairs) of the UK Merlin population, and smaller numbers of 301 pairs, 94 pairs and 32 pairs were estimated for England, Wales and Northern Ireland, respectively. The population estimate for Wales may have been biased upwards by low coverage in the south of the country. Marked declines were noted in several regional Merlin populations, particularly in areas of northern England.

Conclusions The 2008 Merlin survey suggests that the population in Britain has remained relatively stable since 1993–94, but with local declines, particularly in northern England. Currently, little is known about important drivers of regional population change in Merlins, but changes in land-use, prey populations and climate are likely to be important factors.     

Densities and population estimates of breeding Skylarks Alauda arvensis in Britain in 1997

We present the results of a national survey of breeding Skylarks Alauda arvensis in Britain in 1997 carried out by the British Trust for Ornithology (BTO). Numbers of Skylarks and land-use types were recorded by volunteers in 608 1-km squares, selected using random stratification based on the Institute of Terrestrial Ecology's (ITE) Landscape Classification to avoid over- or under-sampling particular habitat types. The results suggest a maximum national population of around 1000 000 pairs. This agrees extremely well with the national population estimate of around 1046 000 pairs derived from the Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) of the BTO/Joint Nature Conservation Committee/Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, and provides further evidence for the robustness of the BBS as a national monitoring scheme for common and widespread species. The figure is approximately half that of the most recent published estimate of 2000 000 in 1988–91. However, the scale of this discrepancy is likely to reflect a bias in Atlas field methodology and site selection since there has been a real decline of approximately 9% since 1990. Arable squares supported the highest densities of Skylarks; 4.6–6.0 pairs per km², and 46–49% of the British breeding population was associated with arable areas. Marginal upland and upland areas supported lower densities but still accounted for approximately 34% of the estimated national breeding population. Differences in density at broad habitat scales were reflected in geographical differences across Britain, with southern and eastern arable regions supporting much higher densities than western and northern ones. At a finer scale, Skylarks occurred at highest densities on, and showed highest habitat preferences for, set-aside and various types of ungrazed grassland. Winter cereal, improved grassland and set-aside held the highest proportion of the Skylark population on farmland in England and Wales; grazed pasture, winter cereals and spring cereals held the highest proportion in Scotland.     

Rapidly declining fine-scale spatial genetic structure in female red deer

A growing literature now documents the presence of fine-scale genetic structure in wild vertebrate populations. Breeding population size, levels of dispersal and polygyny--all hypothesized to affect population genetic structure--are known to be influenced by ecological conditions experienced by populations. However the possibility of temporal or spatial variation in fine-scale genetic structure as a result of ecological change is rarely considered or explored. Here we investigate temporal variation in fine-scale genetic structure in a red deer population on the Isle or Rum, Scotland. We document extremely fine-scale spatial genetic structure (< 100 m) amongst females but not males across a 24-year study period during which resource competition has intensified and the population has reached habitat carrying capacity. Based on census data, adult deer were allocated to one of three subpopulations in each year of the study. Global F(ST) estimates for females generated using these subpopulations decreased over the study period, indicating a rapid decline in fine-scale genetic structure of the population. Global F(ST) estimates for males were not different from zero across the study period. Using census and genetic data, we illustrate that, as a consequence of a release from culling early in the study period, the number of breeding females has increased while levels of polygyny have decreased in this population. We found little evidence for increasing dispersal between subpopulations over time in either sex. We argue that both increasing female population size and decreasing polygyny could explain the decline in female population genetic structure.     

Population dynamics of an endangered heathland shrub,Epacris stuartii (Epacridaceae): Recruitment,establishment and survival

The only known population of the endangered shrub Epacris stuartii Stapf was studied from 1994 to 2001 using demographic census techniques. The effects of substrate, a fire and a storm on the emergence and survival of seedlings and the survival of established plants of different sizes were examined using failure‐time analyses and logit‐linear models. Ninety‐five per cent of seedling emergence was delayed until the second post‐fire spring, an unusual response among species with persistent soil seed banks. Mortality of seedlings was extreme compared with larger‐seeded species, but diminished significantly with age. Seedling mortality varied significantly between substrates: 40% of seedlings persisted for more than 5 years in mineral soil, whereas less than 10% lived more than a year on rock and intermediate substrates. However, seedling numbers and local densities were lower on soils than other substrates. Background mortality of established plants was lower on soil and intermediate substrates (0.5% per year) than on rock (3% per year). Small plants may be more susceptible than large plants on rock, but not on soil. Both the fire and the storm resulted in elevated mortality of established plants. The population exhibited a variable response to fire, with plants on rock and intermediate substrates behaving as obligate seeders, whereas plants in soil resprouted. This appears to be the first report of microhabitat variation in fire response at sympatric scales. The effects of the storm were apparently independent of substrate and plant size. The essentially independent disturbance regimes comprising recurring fires and storms are likely to have a profound effect on the long‐term population dynamics of E. stuartii. Over the 7‐year census period, recruitment has failed to compensate for mortality, resulting in a 30% net decline in the population. The demographic census has proved to be crucial in the detection and diagnosis of this decline.     

RATE OF INCREASE, 1978–1988, OF BOWHEAD WHALES, BALAENA MYSTICETUS, ESTIMATED FROM ICE-BASED CENSUS DATA

The number of bowhead whales, Balaena mysticetus , passing within viewing range of the ice-based census at Point Barrow, Alaska, during spring migrations from 1978 to 1988 is estimated from the visual census data. The trend in the annual numbers yields an estimated rate of increase of 3.1% per year with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 0.1% to 6.2% for the Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort Seas bowhead stock during this period. Alternative treatments of the data suggest less precise or somewhat lower estimates, but all results indicate that the stock was increasing.     

Long-term population dynamics in a Mediterranean aquatic snake

A review of several long-term studies has recently suggested that snakes might be declining in large parts of the world. Additional data from other long-term studies are therefore urgently needed in order to assess the generalities of such suggested declines. Based on a 20-year study, we analyzed demographic data on adult dice snakes (Natrix tessellata) studied in central Italy between 1985 and 2004. Both male and female dice snakes were relatively long-lived, with no significant differences in longevity between the sexes. Individual males and females were observed over a maximum of 10 and 14 years, respectively. However, the among-year recapture rates between the year the snakes were initially captured and the subsequent year (i.e., year 1 to year 2) was significantly lower (45%) than the among-year recapture rates during subsequent years (74%; i.e., year 2 to year 3), suggesting that a large proportion of the snakes at first capture were in fact not resident within our study area, and hence many snakes were migrating in and out of our 2-km stream study site, with no inter-sexual difference in dispersal rates. Sex ratio was virtually equal if we consider the study period as a whole. Significant annual fluctuations were, however, observed through the study. In 1985–1990, 1993–1995, 1998 and 1999 the sex ratio was male-biased, whereas in 2000–2004 female-biased. In terms of both survival and recapture probabilities, model selection showed that Akaike’s information criterion favored the model incorporating body size, with the model incorporating year having an intermediate likelihood, and the model with sex included being the most disfavored. Total population number estimates suggest an average 86 adult individuals along the 2 km of stream with only minor annual variations. However, a significant decrease in the number of males occurred during the last 6 years of our study. Thus, further monitoring of this population is warranted in light of the decline of snake populations reported recently.     

Epidemiology of Alzheimer's presenile dementia in Scotland, 1974-88.

OBJECTIVE--To describe the epidemiology of presenile Alzheimer''s disease in Scotland from 1974 to 1988. DESIGN--Retrospective review of hospital records of patients aged less than 73 years admitted to psychiatric hospital with various diagnoses of dementia. Diagnoses were classified by National Institute for Communicative Disorders and Stroke and Alzheimer''s Disease and Related Disorders Association Criteria and the Hachinski score. Completeness of the study sample was evaluated by scrutiny of neurology outpatient and general hospital records. SETTING--All general psychiatric hospitals in Scotland. SUBJECTS--All patients with onset of dementia aged 40-64. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Probable and broad Alzheimer''s disease, sex of patient, age at onset. RESULTS--5874 psychiatric hospital records, 129 neurology outpatient records, and 89 records from non-psychiatric hospitals were examined. 317 patients met criteria for probable Alzheimer''s disease, 569 met criteria for broad Alzheimer''s disease, and 267 met those for multi-infarct dementia. Minimal incidences per 100,000 population aged 40-64 years were 22.6 (95% confidence interval, 20.2 to 25.2) and 40.5 (38.9 to 42.3) per 100,000 for probable and broad Alzheimer''s disease. In the 1981 census year the annual incidence of probable Alzheimer''s disease was 1.6 (1.0 to 2.6). Women were at greater risk with incidence rates for probable Alzheimer''s disease of 28.2 (24.5 to 32.4) per 100,000 compared with 16.5 (13.8 to 19.8) per 100,000 for men. The incidence per 100,000 for multi-infarct dementia was greater in men (25.1, 23.3 to 27.1) than women (13.4, 12.1 to 14.8). CONCLUSION--Female sex seems to be positively associated with development of Alzheimer''s disease before age 65 years.