城市可持续发展新型定量研究方法进展

城市体现了集约化的发展方式,以仅占陆地3%的面积承载了世界一多半的人口,因此城市是人类社会可持续发展的主阵地,城市可持续发展是区域可持续发展的重要实践。研究试图从可持续发展的基本内涵着手,聚焦于城市尺度的研究,梳理了相关理论和概念演变历程,着重对新型定量方法——评价指标体系法、复杂系统建模、资源环境可持续性探索等进行综述。研究发现指标体系法常用于传统的城市可持续发展评估,大多是针对表象的分析,隔离了系统内部的组织关联,对系统机理探索不够。资源环境对人类社会的发展起到基础支撑作用,从资源环境可持续性出发研究可持续发展诞生了一些较为创新的方法,但研究集中在描述人类对自然的压力和影响,而对于自然对人类的反馈以及人对自然的积极改造探索不足,也很难直接表达系统整体的可持续性。弹性思维和复杂系统科学近年来被多次用于解释城市运行的灰箱模型,但研究稍浅。研究提出可将弹性思维和复杂系统科学结合起来,借助数据科学和计算科学的新兴方法,分析城市的可持续发展,深入探索可持续性的科学表达和深层机理,为解决复杂的城市问题提供科学指导,为城市可持续发展提供理论依据。     

从演化的角度评价北京市经济系统可持续发展趋势

评价系统可持续性是可持续相关学科讨论的热点问题。从演化的角度评价系统可持续发展趋势是可持续评价的新视角。以热力学、信息论和网络分析等为基础解析系统结构,发现系统演化的能力由两个因素组成：上升性和恢复力。上升性或恢复力过高的系统都不可持续,只有当上升性和恢复力达到一定的平衡状态,系统才能实现可持续发展。利用该演化模型,评价了北京市经济系统1985—2005年可持续发展趋势。结果表明：1985—1987,1993—2002年间系统向最优可持续点靠近;1988—1992,2003—2005年间系统远离最优可持续点。通过分析北京市2005年一阶路径对上升性的边际贡献,得出使系统更可持续的途径是强化对上升性边际贡献大的路径。     

生态承载力研究和应用进展

生态承载力研究是解决资源-环境矛盾、实现区域可持续发展的重要基础,也是地理学、生态学和经济学关注的热点与前沿领域.本文在综述国内外相关研究成果的基础上,阐述了生态承载力的概念内涵,即对复合生态系统支持力和压力的表征;评述了常用的研究方法,即净初级生产力估测法、生态足迹法、供需平衡法、综合指标评价法和系统模型法;介绍了目前较为关注的流域、生态脆弱区、城市、农业区和旅游区生态承载力的研究进展;总结了目前生态承载力研究存在的缺乏科学完整的研究体系、阈值的生态学指示意义不明确、动态演化与预测研究不够深入、空间尺度与格局分异涉足较少等问题;并据此提出未来应在作用机理、模型构建和实践应用方面加强研究.     

基于欧氏距离的农业可持续发展评价理论构建与实例验证

基于欧氏距离构建了农业可持续发展评价理论体系,包括农业可持续发展模型、评价函数、评价等级、目标系统、零系统与评价指标框架。选取宁夏吴忠市2000—2012年数据开展了实例验证,可持续发展指数(ASDI)范围是[0.65,0.70],呈现平缓上升趋势,呈现中持续发展状态。评价结果基本反映了农业系统情况,表明基于欧氏距离构建农业可持续发展评价方法是可行的。该方法的创新性与优势表现在:一是具有可靠的方法论;二是构建了农业可持续发展模型,引入目标系统与零系统概念,建立了农业可持续发展评价参照系,提升了评价的可控性;三是数学函数中隐含了指标权重,回避专家打分法引起的误差或错误,也回避了由于指标增减中指标权重不得不重新赋值的专家打分法缺陷;四是可持续发展评价指数采用函数模型转换,把欧氏距离转换成百分数值一方面易理解,另一方面不同系统的指数值能够进行相互比较。宁夏吴忠农业可持续发展水平偏低的主要原因是氮肥施用量高、秸秆还田率低、复合肥或专用肥比例低、保护性农作技术推广不够、土壤有机质低以及农村人均收入偏低等。     

生态创新系统功能、过程和可持续评估

不同国家生态创新水平有高低,生态创新系统有差异。生态创新系统是由一系列参与者通过相互作用形成的网络,目的是推动有助于生态环境和社会经济协调发展的知识和技术的生产、传播和应用。为比较不同国家生态创新系统的发展状况和可持续性,分析不同国家生态创新系统的优势和不足,提出生态创新系统两步评估法和整体分析框架。把生态创新系统的功能和过程结合起来,对生态创新系统的发展水平进行评价。重点关注系统的长期发展,即系统可持续性。基于资本的角度,包括知识、经济、人力和社会资本,建立生态创新系统可持续评估模型,考察相关资本存量、流量和风险因素。根据创新系统理论、文献回顾和国际研究比较,遴选出30个关键指标,构建涵盖2个指标矩阵的综合评价指标体系。采用主成分分析和综合评价方法,对不同国家生态创新系统的功能-过程和可持续性分别进行评价。研究表明,法国、德国、韩国、西班牙和挪威生态创新系统的功能-过程表现最强,韩国、德国、奥地利、挪威、捷克生态创新系统的可持续性表现最强。根据生态创新系统的现状和可持续性,主要生态创新国家可以分为四种类型,据此采用不同发展策略。如韩国系统现状水平和可持续性都较高,属于生态创新先进国。...     

两个污水处理系统的能值与经济综合分析

运用改进的能值评价指标和经济指标对构建的两个污水处理综合系统("污水处理厂处理+脱水污泥填埋"及"污水处理厂处理+脱水污泥填埋+中水回用")进行了环境可持续性和经济竞争力的综合分析。改进的能值指标(能值产出率SEYR、环境负载率SELR、环境可持续发展指数SESI和能值受益率SEBR)是在考虑研究对象废物及产物能值对环境影响的基础上提出的,更好地反映了系统的特征。结果表明,中水回用系统的增加有利于提升系统的环境可持续发展能力;"污水处理厂处理+脱水污泥填埋+中水回用"系统较"污水厂处理+脱水污泥填埋"系统的经济竞争力差,但却拥有更强的可持续发展能力,有利的经济政策能够刺激其更好的推广运用。     

生态脆弱区生态工程效益评价的比较研究

改革开放40年以来,我国经济快速发展,人民生活水平不断提高,但生态环境持续遭到破坏,已成为阻碍经济社会可持续发展的主要瓶颈。为了解决出现的生态环境问题,我国实施了一系列生态工程。国内外学者关注中国生态工程实施的效果,对工程效益进行了各自的评价研究。通过文献整理法和比较研究法,从评价指标、评价对象、评价理论方法3个方面对评价中国生态工程效益的国内外研究进行了比较分析。结果表明:1)国内研究存在"过定量化"和不评价效益可持续性的不足;2)国外研究有指标贴近实际、评价效益可持续性、借鉴多学科的优点;3)国内外研究的差异来源于其思维方式和关注重点的不同,即国内偏重理论评价,而国外关注实际效益;4)国内研究可以从以下方向来改进:定性定量相结合、评价效益可持续性、借鉴其他学科。以期有助于美丽中国的建设。     

安徽省沿淮地区生态安全评价模型和指标体系

运用压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型,以安徽省沿淮地区为例进行了生态安全评价研究.根据安徽省沿淮地区的经济、社会和环境特点,提出社会经济作为模型组成部分的区域生态安全综合评价模型及指标体系.采用德尔菲法、层次分析法确定了17项评价指标及其权重,分类建立评价指标数学函数,计算该地区生态安全指数,并与PSR模型的评价结果进行了比较分析.结果表明,PSR模型评价结果为0.41,增加社会经济部分后的PSR模型的评价结果为0.34,两种评价结果同属较不安全等级,但相差为20.6%.区域生态安全评价模型和指标体系的建立应当结合区域特点,采用多模型进行评价,分析差异原因,以确定影响生态安全的主要要素.     

基于知识粒度的森林生态系统健康评价指标赋权方法

依据系统科学原理,从影响森林健康包括的系统活力、系统组成、系统恢复力和林地环境等方面筛选13个指标构建森林健康评价指标体系;针对健康评价取值未知(无决策属性)的状况,利用粗糙集理论的属性重要度分析各指标因子对森林健康的影响程度,提出将基于知识粒度和属性重要度的森林健康评价指标赋权法。根据二类调查和样地调查数据,以湖南省大围山自然保护区8个次生林群落和2个人工林样地为应用实例,结果表明:森林健康评价指标体系的林分郁闭度、林分蓄积量、叶面积指数等13个指标在大围山自然保护区森林健康评价中的权重与专家打分法得到的结果基本相符,并且对样地进行了评价,其中只有1个处于健康,7个处于亚健康,2个处于不健康。与层次分析法、主成分分析法等赋权方法相比,基于粗糙集的森林健康评价指标赋权法不需要提供任何先验信息,以森林健康系统相关信息为分析依据,直接从反映森林健康的指标数据中挖掘各因子之间的相关性及其重要度,不依赖专家经验,信息量越大,所得权重越客观。该评价指标赋权法真实有效,评价结果更符合客观实际,为森林健康评价和健康经营提供理论依据。     

汉江中下游生态系统健康评价指标体系构建及其应用

水利工程建设影响了河流生态系统健康。为探究梯级水库、跨流域调水等水利工程建设对长江流域河流生态系统健康的影响,以汉江中下游为例,采用频次分析法和相关性分析法对评价指标进行筛选,用最小二乘法和熵系数法相结合的综合权重模型确定各评价指标权重,从整体性、稳定性及可持续性3个方面构建了河流生态系统健康评价指标体系,并利用赋分法进行河流健康评价。结果表明,汉江中下游河流健康评价指标体系包含流量过程变异程度、输沙量变化、河流连通性、富营养化状况、鱼类物种数等11个指标。评价结果显示汉江中下游河流生态健康状况表现出较强的空间异质性,且健康状况逐年降低。靠近丹江口水库的区域较好,越往下游越差。     

Quantifying sustainability: Resilience,efficiency and the return of information theory

Contemporary science is preoccupied with that which exists; it rarely accounts for what is missing. But often the key to a system's persistence lies with information concerning lacunae. Information theory (IT), predicated as it is on the indeterminacies of existence, constitutes a natural tool for quantifying the beneficial reserves that lacunae can afford a system in its response to disturbance. In the format of IT, unutilized reserve capacity is complementary to the effective performance of the system, and too little of either attribute can render a system unsustainable. The fundamental calculus of IT provides a uniform way to quantify both essential attributes – effective performance and reserve capacity – and results in a single metric that gauges system sustainability (robustness) in terms of the tradeoff allotment of each. Furthermore, the same mathematics allows one to identify the domain of robust balance as delimited to a “window of vitality” that circumscribes sustainable behavior in ecosystems. Sensitivity analysis on this robustness function with respect to each individual component process quantifies the value of that link “at the margin”, i.e., how much each unit of that process contributes to moving the system towards its most sustainable configuration. The analysis provides heretofore missing theoretical justification for efforts to preserve biodiversity whenever systems have become too streamlined and efficient. Similar considerations should apply as well to economic systems, where fostering diversity among economic processes and currencies appears warranted in the face of over-development.     

基于能值分析的厦门城市代谢可持续性评估

生态城市建设是中国城市转型发展的关键节点,对中国生态文明和新型城镇化发展具有推动作用。研究以中国典型的生态城市厦门市为例,基于城市代谢框架结合能值分析法,对厦门市代谢系统进行各项能值流的核算,构建2010-2017年厦门市能值指标评估体系,选用可持续发展指数、可持续发展能值指标、城市健康水平能值指数3项指标综合评价其生态可持续性,选取部分能值指标与珠海市、深圳市进行对比分析,以期为中国生态城市的可持续发展提供科学参考。结果表明：（1）2010-2017年,厦门市总能值呈上升趋势,2017年的总能值为2.51×10²⁴ sej,是2010年总能值的1.65倍,货币流能值显著增加,废弃物流能值下降。能值自给率由98.30%逐渐递增至99.20%,能值产出率由8.30%逐渐递增至15.20%,环境承载率小于3,属于环境低负荷状态。（2）厦门市可持续发展指标处于1-10之间,表明其生态经济系统具有活力和发展潜力,可持续发展能值指标由2010年的3.67增加至2017年的7.76,表明厦门市的可持续发展性能愈来愈好,城市健康水平能值指数由2010年的6.21上升至2017年的25.80,表明厦门市生态系统处于健康可持续发展的状态。（3）厦门市与珠海市、深圳市的能值指标对比分析表明,厦门市与珠海市均处于富有经济活力与生态可持续发展潜力阶段,且厦门市代谢系统的可持续发展水平整体优于珠海市与深圳市。（4）总体来看,厦门城市代谢系统处于可持续发展阶段,生态城市的建设有利于厦门市实现生态经济的可持续发展,研究对同类型生态城市的建设与可持续发展具有理论参考价值。     

Assessing regional sustainable development through an integration of nonlinear principal component analysis and Gram Schmidt orthogonalization

The regional sustainable development level (SDL), sustainability of regional development (SRD) and system coordination (SC) make up the triangular truss of regional sustainable development assessment, but it is debated how should traditional practice best weight and calculate the whole sustainable development system level. The Bohai Rim, covering three provinces and two municipalities in China, lies in a region that is sensitive to profound conflict between socioeconomic development and environment pollution in the process of sustainable development. Considering the defects of traditional models and the multidimensionality of regional sustainability issues, we proposed an integrated model of nonlinear principal component analysis and Gram Schmidt orthogonalization and presented a novel regional sustainable development assessment method and framework from three perspectives for the society–economy–environment system of the Bohai Rim region. The results show that: (a) the integration of nonlinear principal component analysis and Gram Schmidt orthogonalization can well remedy the defects of traditional methods and provide a more objective conceptual framework; (b) the sustainability of regional development and system coordination models graphically demonstrate the essence and connotation of a dynamic sustainable development system; (c) the empirical study demonstrated that the Bohai Rim region has experienced a distinct development period in which the SRD experienced a steady decline and the SDL and SC generally increased; (d) the coordination ability can be improved by a decline in the environmental sustainability, which reveals the importance of environment subsystem optimization; and (e) the weight distribution of variables demonstrates that the most significant factors affecting sustainable development are the indicators from the dimensions of people's standard of living, economic structure and environmental pollution. This study enriches the sustainable development assessment theory and methodology, and lays the foundation for further sustainable development research in the Bohai Rim region.     

Progress in sustainability science: lessons learnt from current methodologies for sustainability assessment: Part 1

Purpose

Sustainability Science (SS) is considered an emerging discipline, applicative and solution-oriented whose aim is to handle environmental, social and economic issues in light of cultural, historic and institutional perspectives. The challenges of the discipline are not only related to better identifying the problems affecting sustainability but to the actual transition towards solutions adopting an integrated, comprehensive and participatory approach. This requires the definition of a common scientific paradigm in which integration and interaction amongst sectorial disciplines is of paramount relevance. In this context, life cycle thinking (LCT) and, in particular, life cycle-based methodologies and life cycle sustainability assessment (LCSA) may play a crucial role. The paper illustrates the main challenges posed to sustainability assessment methodologies and related methods in terms of ontology, epistemology and methodology of SS. The aims of the analysis are twofold: (1) to identify the main features of methodologies for sustainability assessment and (2) to present key aspects for the development of robust and comprehensive sustainability assessment.

Methods

The current debate on SS addressing ontological, epistemological and methodological aspects has been reviewed, leading to the proposal of a conceptual framework for SS. In addition, a meta-review of recent studies on sustainability assessment methodologies and methods, focusing those life cycle based, supports the discussion on the main challenges for a comprehensive and robust approach to sustainability assessment. Starting from the results of the meta-review, we identified specific features of sustainable development-oriented methods: firstly, highlighting key issues towards robust methods for SS and, secondly, capitalising on the findings of each review’s paper. For each issue, a recommendation towards a robust sustainability assessment method is given. Existing limitations of sectorial academic inquiries and proposal for better integration and mainstreaming of SS are the key points under discussion.

Discussion

In the reviewed papers, LCT and its basic principles are acknowledged as relevant for sustainability assessment. Nevertheless, LCT is not considered as a reference approach in which other methods could also find a place. This aspect has to be further explored, addressing the lack of multi-disciplinary exchange and putting the mainstreaming of LCT as a priority on the agenda of both life cycle assessment and sustainability assessment experts. Crucial issues for further developing sustainability assessment methodologies and methods have been identified and can be summarised as follows: holistic and system wide approaches, shift from multi- towards trans-disciplinarity; multi-scale (temporal and geographical) perspectives; and better involvement and participation of stakeholders.

Conclusions

Those are also the main challenges posed to LCSA in terms of progress of ontology, epistemology and methodology in line with the progress of SS. The life cycle-based methodologies should be broadened from comparing alternatives and avoiding negative impacts, to also proactively enhancing positive impacts, and towards the achievement of sustainability goals.     

社会-生态系统恢复力研究综述

目前国内外对脆弱性的论述很多,然而关于恢复力的研究却刚刚起步且困难重重。1973年Holling创造性地将恢复力引入到生态系统稳定性的研究中,并将其定义为系统吸收干扰并继续维持其功能、结构、反馈等不发生质变的能力。30多年来这一术语的概念和内涵在大量的案例研究中得到了丰富和完善,然而这些研究对恢复力的不同解释亦造成了大量的混淆,因此需要在统一的理论基础上,根据控制系统变化的属性来构建恢复力的概念并进行应用研究。在社会-生态系统框架下,分析了恢复力研究的基础理论——适应性循环及扰沌,对其概念及内涵做了进展综述,回顾了恢复力的应用案例,探讨了定量化问题,在此基础上对社会．生态系统恢复力的研究进行了展望,提出了面临的关键问题及今后的研究方向。     

Fuzzy methods for assessing criteria and indicators of sustainable forest management

This paper describes the general concepts, meaning, and definitions of sustainability and proposes the use of soft methodologies, particularly fuzzy set theory, for its assessment. Criteria and indicators (C&I) are described as instruments to assess forest sustainability. Basic elements and concepts of fuzzy sets are described, including membership functions and their interpretations in the context of sustainable forest management. Moreover, fuzzy operators that can combine the operational concepts of sustainability, namely criteria and indicators are described. A simple illustrative example is described to demonstrate the application of these methodologies.     

国外韧性城市形态研究述评

面对突发的自然和人为灾害,城市表现出极大的脆弱性。韧性城市形态被认为是化解城市脆弱性的关键得到关注,梳理国外研究成果对应对我国快速城市化进程中的不确定灾害风险具有重要意义。以韧性城市形态为主题,从概念与特征、形态要素韧性表现、评估及韧性设计等方面追踪国外研究进展。研究结果表明:国外文献重点探讨了形态与自然灾害的关联;韧性城市形态的概念尚未达成一致意见;从宏观、中观、微观空间层次视角探讨城市形态要素韧性表现成果较多;形态要素韧性评估集中于道路网络要素的韧性表现;形态要素韧性设计关键在于空间异质性。基于分析结果可知,我国未来研究重点应集中在全方位构建韧性城市形态研究框架、丰富并拓展形态要素韧性评估方法与技术、重视形态要素空间异质性等方面。     

Emergy analysis of regional water ecological–economic system

The theoretical framework and methodology of a water ecological–economic system (WEES) assessment based on emergy synthesis are proposed in this paper. Through calculating ecological and economic inputs and outputs within and outside the complex system, this paper discusses the system's economic situation, water resources development and system sustainability based on a series of emergy indicators. Besides traditional indices, following the principle of system assessment, four new indices, water emergy ratio (WER), water emergy utilization ratio (WEUR), water emergy self-support ratio (WESR), and water emergy density (WED) are formulated to assess the state of water resources development quantitatively. Taking the Zhengzhou water ecological–economic system as a study area, through the comparison of the systematic indicators of Zhengzhou with those of the selected Chinese cities, the general status of the Zhengzhou water ecological–economic system in China is identified. The results also show that most indicators of Beijing are located at middle levels among the selected Chinese cities. In particular, the sustainability, expressed by the indicators emergy-based sustainability index (ESI) and water resources population carrying capacity (WPC) were 1.34 and 1.94 million, respectively, in Zhengzhou in 2005, which indicates that the Zhengzhou WEES is in heavy pressure of water resources and is located at low levels of sustainability.