Variation in the growth and survival of Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria chicks

The growth of Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria chicks is modelled in detail for the first time. The pattern of growth is typical of postnatal development in waders, although the mean fledging time of 37 days is slower than would be expected from adult body weight. Bill length and weight at hatching had significant effects on the rate of weight gain shown by 2-day-old chicks, although this effect was not noticeable at 4 days of age. Chick survival was significantly affected by bill length, as a result of the variation in weight gain. The growth of older chicks was positively correlated with mean minimum temperature. The slow rate of growth exhibited by Golden Plover chicks is discussed in relation to breeding habitat and the effects of weather and hatchling biometrics.     

Testing the effects of recreational disturbance on two upland breeding waders

Previous work has shown that Golden Plovers Pluvialis apricaria guarding chicks utilize heavily disturbed habitat at a lower rate than surrounding areas, but that such rates of avoidance are reduced when the movement of people is restricted to a surfaced footpath. However, there remained some unanswered questions, which are addressed in this paper. First, we examine to what extent habitat avoidance is dependent upon visitor numbers, and find no evidence that Golden Plovers avoided disturbed areas at a site where visitor pressure was half that previously studied. Secondly, we examine whether these relationships between habitat occupancy and disturbance apply to other upland waders and find that Dunlin Calidris alpina habitat utilization in disturbed areas showed a non-significant increase of approximately 50% following the provision of a surfaced footpath, in a manner similar to that observed for Golden Plover. Thirdly, we examine whether the large numbers of visitors (120 per weekend day) using the surfaced footpath impact on Golden Plover breeding success, despite the lack of habitat avoidance. There was no evidence that nest location, clutch survival or chick growth rates were reduced close to the footpath. Together, these results suggest that high levels of disturbance can impact upon habitat usage by upland waders, but only in limited circumstances where visitor pressure is very high (greater than at least 30 visitors per weekend day). However, access to such areas can be permitted for large numbers of visitors without impacting upon wader reproductive performance through the provision of a well-surfaced route.     

Habitat selection,diet and food availability of European Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria chicks in Swedish Lapland

Fennoscandian alpine tundra habitats support large numbers of breeding waders, but relatively little is known about their breeding ecology despite the fact that this habitat is threatened by climate change. We studied habitat selection, diet and prey availability of European (Eurasian) Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria chicks at the Vindelfjällen Nature Reserve, Ammarnäs, Sweden. Information from 22 chicks tracked using radio‐transmitters was analysed. By analysing 149 faecal samples, four main prey taxa were identified, Coleoptera (40%), Bibionidae (31%), Hymenoptera (13%) and Tipulidae (10%). We found that chicks switched from feeding on Tipulidae to feeding on Bibionidae as they grew, and that this switch coincided with a shift from the use of the habitat where Tipulidae were abundant (alpine meadow/heathland) to the use of the habitat were Bibionidae were abundant (Willow shrub). Although chicks track food availability to some extent, the link between prey availability and habitat use was not perfect, indicating that additional factors other than food abundance, such as shelter from predators, determine habitat selection. Bibionidae are an important prey for Golden Plover chicks as it is the only prey group that has a late summer flush in abundance, in contrast to the general decline of total arthropod biomass during the chick‐rearing period. However, Bibionidae imagoes only occurred in 2011 and were virtually absent in 2013, which relates to the species’ ecology with 2‐ to 5‐year cycles in mass occurrence. Extreme annual variation in an essential food source such as Bibionidae imagoes might have an important effect on the condition and survival of Golden Plover chicks, an important subject for future studies. The foraging conditions for Golden Plover chicks in Fennoscandia appear to be different to those in the UK, where the chicks rely mainly on a Tipulidae flush only.     

The influence of survey frequency on population estimates of moorland breeding birds

Capsule A minimum of four constant‐effort‐search survey visits are required to generate reliable population estimates of breeding birds on moorland that are not subject to biases associated with varying levels of detectability through the season.

Aims To investigate the influence of the number and the combination of survey visits on the population estimates of breeding birds on moorland.

Methods Four constant‐effort‐search surveys (80–100 minutes per km² per visit) of moorland in southwest Scotland were undertaken in each of six years, 2003–2008. Using standard protocols, the numbers of apparent territories that would have been identified for each possible combination of survey visits were determined.glms were used to assess the influence of the frequency of survey visits, and different combination scenarios on the derived population estimates for Red Grouse, European Golden Plover, Common Snipe, Eurasian Curlew, Sky Lark, Winter Wren and Stonechat. Independent assessments of population density were made by transect sampling for Red Grouse and Sky Lark.

Results Robust population estimates were possible from three survey visits for European Golden Plover, Eurasian Curlew and Stonechat. However, there were differences between species in the seasonal variation of their detectability. Four survey visits would underestimate the populations of Red Grouse (probably by 67–91%), Sky Lark (probably by 31–61%) and Winter Wren (by an undetermined proportion). Common Snipe were also likely to be underestimated after four survey visits, but the value of the derived estimate as an index of population density deserves further investigation.

Conclusions If there is a need to carry out a multi‐species survey on moorland, we suggest that a minimum of four survey visits is required to ensure the derivation of reliable population estimates for a suite of the most readily detectable species. Population estimates derived from three or fewer survey visits risk biases through uneven sampling in periods of differing detectability. With evidence for changes in the breeding phenology of birds associated with changing climate or weather patterns, it arguably becomes more important to ensure that surveys sample an adequately broad period of the breeding season.     

Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria breeding success on a moor managed for shooting Red Grouse Lagopus lagopus

Capsule The best estimate of breeding success was a mean of 0.57 fledglings per pair, which when combined with adult survival rates, successfully explained the observed population trend.

Aims To quantify Golden Plover breeding success on a moor managed for shooting Red Grouse Lagopus lagopus.

Methods An intensive study recorded the fate of individual Golden Plover nests and, using radiotelemetry, chicks. The factors associated with mortality were examined, allowing the construction of a model of breeding success. Adult survival was estimated from return rates of colour-ringed birds.

Results Estimated rates of daily nest survival during laying (0.8636) were significantly lower than during incubation (0.9913). The daily survival rate of chicks less than nine days (0.8868) was significantly lower than for older chicks (0.9792). A population model based on these parameters overestimated the rate of nest losses, but accurately described brood survival and fledging success. Although predation rates were low, poor survival of young chicks through starvation or exposure suggest other factors were limiting breeding success at the study site.

Conclusions Predation rates of Golden Plover nests and chicks can be low on moorlands managed for shooting Red Grouse. However, in the absence of predation, other factors may still reduce chick survival and limit breeding success.     

Variation in the use of pasture by breeding European Golden Plovers Pluvialis apricaria in relation to prey availability

European Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria populations have declined across Western Europe. Changes to upland grasslands that are utilized by foraging off-duty birds may have contributed to this decline. The use of enclosed agricultural land by a stable breeding population of Golden Plovers in the South Pennines is described to examine this hypothesis. Fields contained foraging plovers from the end of February to the end of July. Off-duty incubating birds commuted to feed on fields, females during the day and males at night. During the day, adults flew from 6.6 to 7.2 km from the nest to feed, whilst at night birds commuted from 2.4 to 2.7 km. The length of time spent foraging by males was inversely dependent upon daylength. Following hatching, the use of pasture declined, although not as much as in other studies. Arable and improved fields received most use by 15 radiotagged birds, whilst the use of pasture throughout the breeding season was negatively correlated with sward height. Adult diet consisted largely of subsurface prey, particularly larval tipulids, although earthworms were an important component in March and April. The biomass of larval tipulids was strongly correlated with an index of the use of fields. The selection of fields by Golden Plovers is therefore dependent upon prey abundance and availability, and, consequently, is likely to be enhanced by summer grazing and poor drainage. These findings are discussed in the light of recent trends in pastoral management.     

Negative impact of wind energy development on a breeding shorebird assessed with a BACI study design

Previous studies have shown negative associations between wind energy development and breeding birds, including species of conservation concern. However, the magnitude and causes of such associations remain uncertain, pending detailed ‘before‐after‐control‐intervention’ (BACI) studies. We conducted one of the most detailed such studies to date, assessing the impacts of terrestrial wind energy development on the European Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria, a species with enhanced protection under European environmental law. Disturbance activity during construction had no significant effect on Golden Plover breeding abundance or distribution. In contrast, once turbines were erected, Golden Plover abundance was significantly reduced within the wind farm (?79%) relative to the baseline, with no comparable changes in buffer or control areas. Golden Plovers were significantly displaced by up to 400 m from turbines during operation. Hatching and fledging success were not affected by proximity to turbine locations either during construction or operation. The marked decline in abundance within the wind farm during operation but not construction, together with the lack of evidence for changes in breeding success or habitat, strongly suggests the displacement of breeding adults through behavioural avoidance of turbines, rather than a response to disturbance alone. It is of critical importance that wind farms are appropriately sited to prevent negative wildlife impacts. We demonstrate the importance of detailed BACI designs for quantifying the impacts on birds, and recommend wider application of such studies to improve the evidence base surrounding wind farm impacts on birds.     

Modelling conservation management options for a southern range‐margin population of Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria vulnerable to climate change

There is considerable interest in understanding how management may help species and populations cope with climate change (climate change adaptation). I used a population model describing the demography of a southern range‐margin European Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria population vulnerable to climate change to assess the potential benefits associated with site‐based adaptation management. Two forms of management were simulated: (1) counteracting management to reduce the severity of the negative climate change impacts, simulated by increasing tipulid (cranefly) abundance, and (2) compensatory management to increase populations through an alternative mechanism, simulated by manipulating nest and chick predation rates. A 1 °C rise was estimated to require a doubling of cranefly abundance, or a 35% increase in nest and chick survival rates, to maintain a stable population. For a 2 °C rise, a four‐fold increase in craneflies or an 80% increase in survival rates would be required for population stability. A model based on likely realistic estimates of the magnitude of benefit associated with both adaptation management options showed that combined, they may significantly reduce the severity of population decline and risk of extinction associated with a relatively large increase in temperature of 5.8 °C above 1960–90 levels. Site‐based adaptation management may therefore increase the resistance of Golden Plovers to some degree of future climate change. This model framework for informing climate change adaptation decisions should be developed for other species and habitats.     

Habitat selection, diet, arthropod availability and growth of a moorland wader: the ecology of European Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria chicks

Habitat use, diet and food supply of European Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria chicks were studied on blanket bog in the South Pennines, UK. The home ranges occupied by chicks until fledging averaged 40 ha; they contained relatively more cotton grass and bare peat than was available generally, but less heather and grassland. Use of Bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus and Crowberry Empetrum nigrum increased with age, whereas that of cotton grass Eriophorum spp. declined. Dietary composition, as assessed by faecal analysis, was similar to that obtained from the crops of dead birds. The diet of younger chicks, assessed by dry weight of prey, consisted of about 30% each of adult and larval tipulids, whereas for chicks older than 16 days, about 70% was tipulid larvae. Beetles, spiders and caterpillars each comprised 5–20% of the diet, depending on age. Older chicks took larger prey. The exploitation of larval tipulids was correlated positively with the chicks' use of cotton grass and bare peat areas, whereas caterpillars, beetles and spiders were more often taken from dwarf shrubs, reflecting variation in prey abundance. Bare peat was an important foraging habitat, whose exploitation was associated positively with the growth rate of young chicks, and with mean prey size. Both weight gain and survival of young chicks were positively correlated with the abundance of tipulid adults, confirming the hypothesis that the flush of tipulid hatching is an important determinant of breeding success. Golden Plover chicks are capable of considerable movements to track variation in prey availability. This behaviour is likely to be an important survival strategy facilitating the utilization of a mosaic of cotton grass and dwarf shrub habitats. Appropriate rotational strip-burning or grazing management could be used to create and maintain such habitats.     

The impact of climatic variation on the opportunity for sexual selection

Many studies have demonstrated influences of climatic variation on a variety of ecological processes, however, its impact on the potent evolutionary force of sexual selection has largely been ignored. The intensity of sexual selection is a fundamental parameter in animal populations, which depends upon the degree of polygamy and will probably be influenced by the impact of local climatic variation upon 'environmental potential for polygamy'. Here, we provide evidence of a direct effect of local climatic variation on the intensity of sexual selection, by showing a clear correlation between local weather conditions and inter-annual changes in the degree of polygamy in a long-term study of colonially breeding grey seals (Halichoerus grypus). Our results show that changes in local weather conditions alter the annual proportion of males contributing to the effective population size (Ne) by up to 61%. Consequently, over the 'lifetime' of a cohort, a broader range of individuals will contribute genetically to the next generation if local weather conditions are variable. In the context of predicted future changes in climatic variation, these findings have broad implications for population genetics of socially structured animal systems through the major influence that the degree of polygamy has upon Ne.     

Ecological and environmental correlates of territory occupancy and breeding performance of migratory Golden Eagles Aquila chrysaetos in interior Alaska

Understanding relationships between environmental conditions and reproductive parameters is important when interpreting variation in animal population size. The northwestern North American population of Golden Eagles Aquila chrysaetos canadensis initiates courtship and nesting in early spring when prey diversity is low and weather conditions are severe. Snowshoe Hare Lepus americanus and Willow Ptarmigan Lagopus lagopus, the primary prey of Golden Eagles early in their nesting season in interior Alaska, both exhibit cyclical fluctuations in abundance, providing the opportunity to investigate such relationships. We used Bayesian hierarchical models to explore variation in territory occupancy, nesting rates, nesting success and productivity of Golden Eagles from 1988 to 2010 in Denali National Park and Preserve, Alaska, in relation to annual and site‐specific parameters including prey abundance, weather conditions, elevation and human activity. We also investigated the long‐term fluctuations of breeding performance over the course of the study. The abundance of Hares influenced both the number of Eagles that laid eggs and the number of Eagles that produced fledglings. The conditions on the breeding ground did not explain observed declines in nesting rates and fledgling production, suggesting that other factors such as change in the age structure of the population, increased intraspecific competition or deterioration of migration and wintering habitat are driving the long‐term trends of these parameters.     

Breeding distribution and conservation of the Crab Plover (Dromas ardeola) in Saudi Arabia (Aves: Charadriiformes)

We surveyed the population of the Crab Plover, a species which is endemic to the Arabian Peninsula, in 2011, 2012 and 2013 in coastal and offshore areas of the Red Sea in Saudi Arabia, and compared the data with a survey carried out in 1996. We found two new colonies which comprise together about 539 pairs. Altogether 1380 pairs of Crab Plover breed in the Red Sea of Saudi Arabia in five colonies, representing approximately 35% of the Arabian breeding population. Major threats to the Crab Plover are human disturbance, egg collection, and introduced animals (e.g. cats, rats and snakes) that may feed upon eggs and chicks.     

Associations between distance to forest and spatial and temporal variation in abundance of key peatland breeding bird species

Capsule Negative forest edge effects were detected for Willow Ptarmigan (Red Grouse) Lagopus lagopus and Dunlin Calidris alpina.

Aims To investigate the effects of distance to forest on the abundance and changes in abundance of four key peatland breeding bird species, and to measure changes in predatory bird numbers, in the peatlands of northern Scotland.

Methods Bird surveys were carried out in 2000 at 34 plots, covering 197 km² of peatland, and 80 forestry point‐count sites, first surveyed in 1988. Habitat data were also collected in 2000. We used multi‐model inference to investigate the associations between forest distance and other habitat variables, and the abundance, and changes in abundance, of four bird species of economic or conservation importance: Red Grouse, European Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria, Dunlin and Common Greenshank Tringa nebularia.

Results There was strong evidence that distance to forest was negatively associated with Dunlin abundance and changes in Red Grouse abundance, but only weak evidence for negative associations with Golden Plover abundance and changes in Dunlin abundance. There was no evidence of a forest distance effect on Greenshank. Among predatory birds, there were no significant increases either on peatland plots or in new forestry plantations.

Conclusions This study provides evidence that, for a given habitat quality, Dunlin densities are lower, and Red Grouse declines more likely, near to forest edges, but weak evidence only that Dunlin declines are more likely, and Golden Plover abundance lower, near to forests. These results suggest that for at least two key peatland breeding birds, forest removal is likely to benefit birds breeding on adjacent unafforested peatland.     

An indicator highlights seasonal variation in the response of Lepidoptera communities to warming

The impacts of climate change on species and ecosystems are increasingly evident. While these tend to be clearest with respect to changes in phenology and distribution ranges, there are also important consequences for population sizes and community structure. There is an urgent need to develop ecological indicators that can be used to detect climate-driven changes in ecological communities, and identify how those impacts may vary spatially. Here we describe the development of a new community-based seasonal climate change indicator that uses national population and weather indices. We test this indicator using Lepidopteran and co-located weather data collected across a range of UK Environmental Change Network (ECN) sites. We compare our butterfly indicator with estimates derived from an alternative, previously published metric, the Community Temperature Index (CTI).First, we quantified the effect of temperature on population growth rates of moths and butterflies (Species Temperature Response, STR) by modelling annual variation in national population indices as a function of nationally averaged seasonal variation in temperature, using species and weather data independent of the ECN data. Then, we calculated average STRs for annually summarised species data from each ECN site, weighted by species’ abundance, to produce the Community Temperature Response (CTR). Finally, we tested the extent to which CTR correlated with spatial variation in temperature between sites and the extent to which temporal variation in CTR tracked both annual and seasonal warming trends.Mean site CTR was positively correlated with mean site temperature for moths but not butterflies. However, spatial variation in moth communities was well explained by mean site summer temperature and butterfly communities by winter temperature, respectively accounting for 74% and 63% of variation. Temporal variation in moth and butterfly CTR within sites did not vary with the mean annual temperature but responded to variation in the mean temperature of specific seasons. There were positive correlations between moth seasonal CTRs and seasonal temperatures in winter, spring and summer; and butterfly seasonal CTRs and seasonal temperatures in winter and summer. Butterfly CTR and CTI both correlated spatially and temporally with winter temperature.Our results highlight the need for seasonality to be considered when examining the impact of climate change on communities. Seasonal CTRs may be used to track the impact of changing temperatures on biodiversity and help identify potential mechanisms by which climate change is affecting communities. In the case of Lepidoptera, our results suggest that future warming may reassemble Lepidoptera communities.     

Breeding populations of Little Ringed Plover Charadrius dubius and Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula in the United Kingdom in 2007

Capsule: The 2007 national survey of the UK breeding population of Little Ringed Plovers shows a further spread into Scotland and Wales since the previous survey in 1984. In contrast, there has been a significant decrease in the Ringed Plover breeding population.

Aims: To provide new breeding population estimates in the UK and Great Britain for Little Ringed Plover Charadrius dubius and Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula in 2007 and investigate changes in breeding distribution and habitat use since 1984.

Methods: Breeding population estimates were made by combining counts of pairs from ‘key sites’ (2?×?2?km tetrads known to be occupied in/since 1984) and estimates of the numbers of pairs away from these sites based on stratified sampling. Survey periods for Little Ringed Plover: 15 April to 15 July, three visits; Ringed Plover: 15 April to 30 June, two visits.

Results: Population estimates, for 2007, of 1239 (95% confidence intervals: 1175–1311) pairs of Little Ringed Plover and 5291 (5106–5478) pairs of Ringed Plovers were calculated for Great Britain, with 5438 (5257–5622) pairs of Ringed Plover estimated in the UK. Counts of Ringed Plover at inland and coastal sites, covered in both 1984 and 2007, decreased by 83% and 53%, respectively. The Little Ringed Plover population has expanded in range northward and westward since 1984. Main habitats used in 2007 by Little Ringed Plover were inland gravel and sand (25.9%) and river shingle (17.8%); and, for Ringed Plover, coastal shingle and sand (38.5% and 13.7%, respectively) and machair plus associated habitats (23.8%) in the Outer Hebrides.

Conclusions: Between 1984 and 2007, the Little Ringed Plover breeding population in the UK increased considerably, expanding northward and westward, with increased use of river shingle habitats. During the same period Ringed Plover breeding numbers in the UK declined considerably in both coast and inland habitats, likely to be due to human disturbance and habitat change, respectively.     

Saisonale und tidale Variation in der Nutzung von Wattfl?chen durch nahrungssuchende V?gel

Densities of feeding birds were estimated on tidal mud flats in relation to season and tide. Dunlin, Knot, Bar-tailed Godwit, Oystercatcher, Golden Plover, Common Gull, and Black-headed Gull were most abundant. Seasonal variation was significant in all species. In general, there was a correlation between bird numbers on study plots and total bird numbers in the area. Preferences for a particular sediment type and prominent occurrence at tideline in some species was explained as an adaption to differential food availability.     

Differential moult patterns in relation to antipredator behaviour during incubation in four tundra plovers

Golden plovers and Grey Plovers Pluvialis spp. all have very distinct breeding plumage rich in contrast, with a conspicuous black belly and breast bordered by a bright white fringe. Eurasian Golden Plovers are known partly to replace their breeding plumage with striped yellow feathers during incubation, different from both breeding and non-breeding plumages. In this study a similar partial breeding moult was observed in Pacific Golden Plovers and American Golden Plovers caught on the nest or collected during incubation, although the feathers did not differ clearly from those of non-breeders. This moult starts during incubation and precedes the post-breeding moult into non-breeding plumage. Because the lighter feathers reduce the contrast between the black belly and the white flanks, we suggest that during incubation the plumage characteristic that plays an important role in mate choice is no longer important; at this stage it is better for the bird to be inconspicuous. Additional information on museum skins of golden plovers and of Grey Plovers indicated that only the three golden plovers undergo this partial moult, but that Grey Plovers in general retain full breeding plumage throughout incubation. The three golden plovers also resemble each other in their generally very passive nest defence strategies. In contrast, the larger Grey Plovers actively chase and attack aerial and ground predators. Thus, a reduced conspicuousness of the body plumage during incubation is likely to benefit the golden plovers more than the Grey Plover. We suggest that nest defence behaviour, plumage characteristics and perhaps size have co-evolved as a response to different selection pressures in golden plovers and Grey Plover, but alternative hypotheses are also discussed.     

Distribution shifts in wintering Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria and Lapwing Vanellus vanellus in Britain

Capsule The winter distribution of Golden Plover and Lapwing has shifted east since the mid-1980s, perhaps in response to climate change.

Aims To combine analyses of winter trends on wetlands and flocks on farmland to assess the current status of Golden Plover and Lapwing in one of their main wintering regions.

Methods Winter trends were derived from monthly counts on estuaries and wetlands for the period 1974–2002 (the Wetland Bird Survey). Winter distribution on farmland was assessed using casual records of large flocks and surveys of a stratified random sample of 1-km squares (the Winter Farmland Bird Survey).

Results Regional trends showed a pronounced increase in numbers of both species since 1974 on the east coast, with a smaller increase on the south coast. Numbers in the west and north tended to decline. Flocks on farmland were concentrated in eastern Britain unlike the situation in the 1980s.

Conclusions The winter distribution of Golden Plover and Lapwing has shifted to the east, resulting in large numbers on the east coast and in the arable east of Britain. The implications of this shift, especially in relation to known habitat associations, are discussed.     

气象要素的时间分布对五代桑螟数量影响分析

应用积分回归方法,分析气象要素对5代桑螟Diaphania pyloalis Walker数量影响的结果显示,各气象要素的时间分布对5代桑螟数值效应的变化较大,有的时段为正效应,有的时段为负效应;影响效应最大为相对湿度,日平均温度次之,降水和日照项对湿度和温度起着修饰作用。8月上旬高温多湿、8月中旬高温干燥对5代桑螟发生量有明显促进作用;9月上旬多湿和适度低温、9月中旬干燥和适度高温有利于5代桑螟数量增加。多湿环境有利于桑螟卵的生存和孵化,干燥环境有利于桑螟幼虫和蛹的生存。用11年历史值进行验证,吻合效果达到极显著。通过2007年的预测值与大田实际调查值对比,误差在13.6%,证明模拟的数学模型能准确地反映5代桑螟自然种群数量动态。     

Weather-induced changes in moth activity bias measurement of long-term population dynamics from light trap samples

Interpretation of light trap catches of moths is complicated by daily variation in weather that alters flight activity and numbers caught. Light trap efficiency is also modified by wind and fog, and daily weather may effect absolute abundance (numbers actually present). However, actograph experiments and other sampling methods suggest that changes in daily activity are large by comparison to changes in absolute abundance. Daily variation in weather (other than wind and fog) is therefore a form of sampling error in absolute abundance estimates. We investigated the extent of this sampling bias in 26 years of population dynamics from 133 moth species. In a subset of 20 noctuid and geometrid species, daily numbers caught were positively correlated with temperature in 14 species, and negatively correlated with rainfall in 11 species. The strength of correlations varied between species, making it difficult to standardize catches to constant conditions. We overcame this by establishing how weather variation changed with time and duration of the flight period. Species flying later in the summer and for shorter periods experienced more variable temperatures, making sampling error greater for these species. Of the 133 moth species, those with shorter flight periods had greater population variability and more showed significant temporal density dependence. However, these effects were weak, which is encouraging because it suggests that population analyses of light trap data largely reflect factors other than sampling error.