Influence of environmental factors on the numbers and activity of wintering Lapwings and Golden Plovers

Variations in the numbers and activity of Lapwings Vanellus vanellus and Golden Plovers Pluvialis apricaria using 322 ha of lowland farmland were examined in relation to temperature, rainfall, wind speed and moonphase. The study was undertaken over two winters (1987/88 and 1988/89), with maximum counts of 4000 Lapwings and 820 Golden Plovers. Patterns of occupancy of the study area and seasonal occurrence are described. Temperature and the phase of the lunar cycle seemed to be particularly important in affecting the distribution and activity of the birds. More Lapwings occurred in the study area on the colder and on the wetter days in several months, and also around the full moon period when feeding activity was particularly prevalent. A higher proportion of Lapwings tended to feed on colder days and around the new moon period, while daytime loafing increased around the full moon period. These results support the ideas that birds need to feed more in cold conditions, when energy demands are high, and that night feeding frequently occurs during the full moon period, although the reasons for this remain unclear.     

Modelling conservation management options for a southern range‐margin population of Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria vulnerable to climate change

There is considerable interest in understanding how management may help species and populations cope with climate change (climate change adaptation). I used a population model describing the demography of a southern range‐margin European Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria population vulnerable to climate change to assess the potential benefits associated with site‐based adaptation management. Two forms of management were simulated: (1) counteracting management to reduce the severity of the negative climate change impacts, simulated by increasing tipulid (cranefly) abundance, and (2) compensatory management to increase populations through an alternative mechanism, simulated by manipulating nest and chick predation rates. A 1 °C rise was estimated to require a doubling of cranefly abundance, or a 35% increase in nest and chick survival rates, to maintain a stable population. For a 2 °C rise, a four‐fold increase in craneflies or an 80% increase in survival rates would be required for population stability. A model based on likely realistic estimates of the magnitude of benefit associated with both adaptation management options showed that combined, they may significantly reduce the severity of population decline and risk of extinction associated with a relatively large increase in temperature of 5.8 °C above 1960–90 levels. Site‐based adaptation management may therefore increase the resistance of Golden Plovers to some degree of future climate change. This model framework for informing climate change adaptation decisions should be developed for other species and habitats.     

Warmer springs advance the breeding phenology of golden plovers Pluvialis apricaria and their prey (Tipulidae)

Most studies of climate-driven changes in avian breeding phenology have focused on temperate passerines, yet the consequences of such environmental change may be more deleterious for other avian taxa, such as arctic and sub-arctic waders (Charadrii). We therefore examine large-scale climatic correlates of the breeding phenology of one such species (golden plover Pluvialis apricaria), and the timing of emergence of their adult tipulid prey, to assess the potential for climate change to disrupt breeding performance. Golden plover first-laying dates were negatively correlated with both March and April temperature, the mean laying date of first clutches was additionally negatively correlated with March rainfall. The timing of final laying dates were negatively correlated with April temperature only. The timing of tipulid emergence was negatively correlated with May temperature. In combination with historical climatic data, these models suggest a 9-day advancement of golden plover first-laying dates occurred during the 1990s, although this remains within the range of natural variation for the twentieth century. The magnitudes of predicted changes in mean and final laying dates, and the timing of tipulid emergence, were smaller. Climate predictions for 2070-2099 suggest potential advances in first-laying dates by 25 days, whilst the timings of mean and final laying dates are predicted to change by 18 days and 13 days, and tipulid emergence by 12 days. Given the importance of adult tipulids to young golden plover chicks, these changes may result in a mismatch between the timing of first-laying dates and tipulid emergence, so reducing the success of early breeding attempts. Modelling suggests that these changes could reduce breeding success in a South Pennines population by about 11%.     

Habitat size, recruitment, and longevity as factors limiting population size in stage-structured species

Surprisingly little research has evaluated how habitat size may limit the population size of species that use different habitats at different stages of their lives. Here we develop simple discrete-time models to describe the population dynamics of species that use separate juvenile and adult habitats. Analytic solutions, model simulations, and elasticity and sensitivity analyses show that adult abundance is only limited by the size of the juvenile habitat when both adult habitat size and recruitment are much larger than juvenile habitat size. Juvenile habitat plays a marginally greater role in limiting population size for species with closed populations, where recruitment is proportional to adult abundance, versus open populations. Because adult populations often accumulate pulses of juveniles, adult habitat size can strongly limit population size over a broad range of parameter values, an effect that increases as the longevity of a species increases. Limited empirical research from a range of taxa supports these model predictions, although few studies were designed to actually test the limiting role of juvenile versus adult habitat. Future research must carefully evaluate whether and how processes at the juvenile stage affect adult abundance, and conservation efforts may be able to use this model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness, vis-a-vis increasing adult abundance, of time and money allocated to protecting juvenile habitats.     

Recruitment to a seabird population depends on environmental factors and on population size

1. A novel capture-mark-recapture (CMR) method was used to build a multistate model of recruitment by young birds to a breeding population of common guillemots Uria aalge on the Isle of May, Scotland. Recruitment of a total of 2757 individually marked guillemots over 17 years was modelled as a process where individuals had to move from an unobservable state at sea, through a nonbreeding state present in the colony, to the breeding state. The probabilities of individuals returning to the colony in a given year, at age 2 and 3-4 years, were positively correlated with an environmental covariate, the winter North Atlantic Oscillation index (WNAO) in the previous years. 2. For 2 year olds, there was a negative relationship with breeding population size, suggesting that density dependence operated in this colony through limitation of food or some other resource. 3. Survival over the first 2 years of life varied with cohort, but was unrelated to the WNAO. Mean survival over this 2-year period was high at 0.576 (95% CI: 0.444; 0.708). 4. This high survival, combined with a low 'local' survival after age 5 years of 0.695 (0-654; 0.733) and observations of Isle of May chicks at other colonies, suggests that most surviving chicks return to the natal colony before deciding whether to recruit there or move elsewhere.     

Some factors affecting the build-up of cereal aphid infestations in winter wheat

Aphid populations were measured at 14-day intervals during May to July 1974 in 17 fields of wheat at 10 sites along an 85 km transect running east from Hertfordshire to the Essex coast. Metopolophium dirhodum was the most numerous species initially, but was later superseded by Sitobion avenae. Rhopalosiphum padi was third in order of abundance. Several characteristics of each site and crop were examined in relation to the development of aphid infestations: two were associated with inter-site differences in aphid infestation. Infestations started earlier at the eastern than at the western sites due to the earlier arrival of alate migrants, and this resulted in higher peak populations densities of R. padi but not of M. dirhodum or S. avenae. Greater aphid densities were associated with crops having low nitrate concentrations in plant sap in the early stages of growth.     

The role of winter weather in the population dynamics of spring moths in the southwest Korean peninsula

Moth monitoring in a coniferous forest in southwestern Korea was carried out for 3 years in order to investigate the effects of winter weather factors on moth survival and emergence in early spring. A total of 686 individuals in 51 species of 4 families were collected during 3 spring sampling periods. The species richness observed for all 3 years was similar, though their abundance was differed. A total of 15 weather variables were analyzed including temperature and precipitation during the 4 months preceding April, and cumulative sums of 5-degree days with base temperatures ranging from 6 to 10 °C. Due to the multicollinearity of dependent variables, we adopted the eigenvectors of major axes from principal component analysis for multiple stepwise regression analysis. The species richness and abundance were significantly related to the first and second axes. Both axes were positively related with precipitation and temperature during the preceding 2 months, as well as the average winter temperature. This indicated that the effects of temperature and precipitation during winter played an important role in moth emergence in early spring, though the weather conditions of each month during winter varied significantly compared to the pattern of adult emergence.     

Factors affecting population density, group size and territory size of the European badger, Meles meles

This paper discusses the relationship between the distribution and biomass of the main prey of European badgers, Meles meles and the badgers group size, territory size and population density. The distribution of areas rich in earthworms, Lumbricus spp., is correlated with badger range size, whilst badger group size increases with the biomass of worms per badger territory and badger density increases with overall worm biomass. Regulation of badger density in an area is likely to take place through regulation of group size, in the absence of other factors such as persecution and lack of suitable sett-sites.     

Seed size in tropical trees: a comparative study of factors affecting seed size in Peruvian angiosperms

Evolutionary comparative methods taking into account the potential effects of relatedness reveal that, among 202 species of animal-dispersed tropical woody angiosperms from Peru, large seeds may be an adaptation to: (1) dispersal by mammals rather than by birds and (2) greater plant height. Using the most powerful techniques currently available, appropriate comparisons were made between related species or species groups at all taxonomic levels, thus allowing use of all species in the data set. Even so, the results show no evidence of adaptation (i.e., a functional relationship) of seed mass to successional syndrome or to growth form (trees or vines). In previous cross-species analyses, seed mass has been linked to both of these ecological variables. The lack of relationship between seed mass and habitat use or growth form may be due to targeting the wrong trait to predict these two variables, or because seed mass is subject to exaptation, i.e., a particular seed mass has arisen for other reasons, but allows invasion into a habitat and currently serves to maintain that species in the habitat. Differentiation between these two explanations for the lack of correlation between seed mass and successional syndrome or growth form would entail species-by-species examination of the function of seed mass under natural conditions. The effect of relatedness on the ecological correlates of seed mass and plant height is determined for each of three taxonomic schemes. It is concluded that the three schemes do not differ greatly in the results obtained.     

Effective population size of a population with stochastically varying size

For a Wright–Fisher model with mutation whose population size fluctuates stochastically from generation to generation, a heterozygosity effective population size is defined by means of the equilibrium average heterozygosity of the population. It is shown that this effective population size is equal to the harmonic mean of population size if and only if the stochastic changes of population size are uncorrelated. The effective population size is larger (resp. smaller) than the harmonic mean when the stochastic changes of population size are positively (resp. negatively) autocorrelated. These results and those obtained so far for other stochastic models with fluctuating population size suggest that the property that effective population sizes are always larger than the harmonic mean under the fluctuation of population size holds only for continuous time models such as diffusion and coalescent models, whereas effective population sizes can be equal to or smaller than the harmonic mean for discrete time models.     

Socioeconomic factors affecting the longevity of the Japanese population: a study for 1980 and 1985.

The effects of urbanisation, low income and rejuvenation of the population on life expectancy at birth and at 20, 40 and 65 years of age for males and females in Japan were examined twice, in 1980 and 1985. For males, urbanisation was the major factor determining life expectancy at birth and at age 20 years, and low income was the key determinant of decreased life expectancy except at 65 years of age. For females high income was the factor significantly decreasing life expectancy at 65 years of age in 1980, and rejuvenation of the population inversely influenced life expectancy except at birth in 1985. Life expectancy for all age groups in 1985 was significantly longer than in 1980 for both males and females.     

Impacts of climate on prey abundance account for fluctuations in a population of a northern wader at the southern edge of its range

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate change will affect animal populations is vital for adaptive management. Many studies have described changes in the timing of biological events, which can produce phenological mismatch. Direct effects on prey abundance might also be important, but have rarely been studied. We examine the likely importance of variation in prey abundance in driving the demographics of a European golden plover ( Pluvialis apricaria ) population at its southern range margin. Previous studies have correlated plover productivity with the abundance of their adult cranefly (Tipulidae) prey, and modelled the phenology of both plover breeding and cranefly emergence in relation to temperature. Our analyses demonstrate that abundance of adult craneflies is correlated with August temperature in the previous year. Correspondingly, changes in the golden plover population are negatively correlated with August temperature 2 years earlier. Predictions of annual productivity, based on temperature-mediated reductions in prey abundance, closely match observed trends. Modelled variation in annual productivity for a future scenario of increasing August temperatures predicts a significant risk of extinction of the golden plover population over the next 100 years, depending upon the magnitude of warming. Direct effects of climate warming upon cranefly populations may therefore cause northward range contractions of golden plovers, as predicted by climate envelope modelling. Craneflies are an important food source for many northern and upland birds, and our results are likely to have wide relevance to these other species. Research into the potential for habitat management to improve the resilience of cranefly populations to high temperature should be an urgent priority.     

Predicting the population consequences of human disturbance for Ringed Plovers Charadrius hiaticula: a game theory approach

Human disturbance and its potential impacts upon bird populations are currently topical and contentious issues for conservationists. Although many studies have revealed a behavioural impact, or even direct effect on breeding success or survival, these cannot usually be extended to predict the impact on population size. Here we present a population model that allows predictions of the effect that changes in human numbers, visiting a 9-km-long section of the coastline, may have upon the size of a Ringed Plover Charadrius hiaticula population. Human disturbance affects Ringed Plovers in our study area through birds avoiding areas of high disturbance and, in addition, through the accidental trampling of a small number of nests by people walking on the beach. Using the level of human disturbance and habitat variables (which define territory quality) it is possible to predict which areas of beach are occupied and therefore the sites available to the population. Breeding success, for a given area of beach, can be predicted from habitat data. Incorporating known, density-independent, adult mortality allows the equilibrium population size to be predicted. This provides a model that predicts population size. This model is then used to predict the population that the site would support with different, hypothetical, levels of disturbance. If nest loss from human activity was prevented, for example by fencing nests, we predict the Plover population size would increase by 8%. A complete absence of human disturbance would cause a population increase of 85%. If the numbers of people were to double, we predict the population would decrease by 23%.     

Local factors affecting winter habitat use of non-native rainbow trout in a boreal stream in northern Japan

Ichthyological Research - Despite its potential use for population control, the winter ecology of nonnative fishes is still poorly understood due to the difficulty of conducting field surveys. In...     

Evolutionary and climatic factors affecting tooth size in the red foxVulpes vulpes in the Holarctic

Research into the geographical pattern of tooth size in the red fox,Vulpes vulpes (Linnaeus, 1758) in the Holarctic was conducted on a sample of 3806 skulls belonging to 41 fox populations. The Nearctic was represented by 948 specimens (249 females, 359 males, 340 specimens of unknown sex) belonging to 13 populations, whereas the Palearctic was represented by 2858 red foxes (1034 females, 1256 males, 568 specimens of unknown sex) from 32 populations. In the Nearctic, the largest foxes live on Kodiak Island (V. v. harrimani) and the Kenai Peninsula (V. v. kenaiensis), while the smallest ones live in California (V. v. necator) and Georgia (V. v. fulvus). In the Palearctic, the largest foxes come from the Far East (V. v. jakutensis, V. v. beringiana, V. v. tobolica), while the smallest are from the southern borders of the Eurasian range (V. v. pusilla, V. v. barbara, V. v. arabica). In both the Palearctic and Nearctic, tooth size in the fox varies depending on the geo-climatic factors. The fox’s tooth size confirms the general basis of Bergmann’s rule. In the Palearctic, specimens with larger teeth occur in cooler habitats with greater seasonality. These are first and foremost Northern and Far Eastern populations. In the Nearctic, tooth size in red foxes depends on the temperature and humidity of their habitat. Competition within the species and between species has important impact on the variation and dimorphism of tooth size in the red fox. Both in the Nearctic and Palearctic, red foxes from regions of sympatric co-occurrence with other closely relatedVulpes species, are more sexually dimorphic in terms of tooth size than red foxes from allopatric regions. Analysis of morphological distance on the basis of the size of dental characteristics shows, that in the Palearctic, the foxes from India (V. v. pusilla), while in the Nearctic, the population from Kodiak Island (V. v. harrimani) are most distant from the remaining populations. Geographic barriers such as the Bering Strait, Parry Channel, Mackenzie River, Kolyma and Omolon River systems have had a critical impact on red fox evolution. The most likely place for the evolution and diversification of the phyletic lineVulpes vulpes seems to be the Middle East region.     

The allometric pattern of sexually size dimorphic feather ornaments and factors affecting allometry

The static allometry of secondary sexual characters is currently subject to debate. While some studies suggest an almost universal positive allometry for such traits, but isometry or negative allometry for nonornamental traits, other studies maintain that any kind of allometric pattern is possible. Therefore, we investigated the allometry of sexually size dimorphic feather ornaments in 67 species of birds. We also studied the allometry of female feathers homologous to male ornaments (female ornaments in the following) and ordinary nonsexual traits. Allometries were estimated as reduced major axis slopes of trait length on tarsus length. Ornamental feathers showed positive allometric slopes in both sexes, although that was not a peculiarity for ornamental feathers, because nonsexual tail feathers also showed positive allometry. Migration distance (in males) and relative size of the tail ornament (in females) tended to be negatively related to the allometric slope of tail feather ornaments, although these results were not conclusive. Finally, we found an association between mating system and allometry of tail feather ornaments, with species with more intense sexual selection showing a smaller degree of allometry of tail ornaments. This study is consistent with theoretical models that predict no specific kind of allometric pattern for sexual and nonsexual characters.     

Comparative analysis of external factors affecting the population of wild reindeer in Taimyr

This paper surveys external ecological factors that have an impact on the population of wild reindeer on the Taimyr Peninsula. These factors are estimated according to their influence on the abundance of the reindeer population. The key factors are examined with relation to bioenergetics. The population conservation strategy in view of the potential resumption of anthropogenic influence due to further industrial development of Taimyr is proposed.     

Daily problems as stressing factors in a student population

An enquiry has been conducted to identify the most common hassles among University students (N = 169); from the 62 most frequently reported, a 62-item Daily Hassle Index has been developed. By asking the subjects to indicate how often each problem distressed them, the ten most commonly irritating hassles were isolated.