Winter site-fidelity and survival of Redshank Tringa totanus at Cardiff,south Wales

The site-fidelity of adult Redshank Tringa totanus was investigated using colour-ringing and radiotracking at Cardiff Bay, a wintering site in south Wales, in 1996/97 and 1997/98. Between 7 and 20% of colour-ringed adults were seen away from the bay in winter, although only at a distance of 4 km. Radiotracking also suggested that adults were largely faithful either to the bay or to this neighbouring site. Return rates of 89% and 83% were estimated over two successive summers, indicating site-fidelity between winters. Survival rates of 91% and 100% were estimated over the two preceding (four-month) winter periods. Annual survival rates, calculated as the product of the winter survival and over-summer return rates, were therefore 81% and 83%. These estimates are comparable to those previously obtained for Redshank, in studies both on breeding and wintering grounds. Analyses of ring recovery data from throughout the UK complemented the colour-ringing and radiotracking studies in showing that the majority of Redshank are site-faithful both within and between winters. Ring recovery analyses also indicated that first-year Redshank had similar recovery patterns to adults.     

Climate anomalies affect annual survival rates of swifts wintering in sub‐Saharan Africa

Several species of migratory swifts breed in the Western Palearctic, but they differ in reproductive traits and nonbreeding areas explored in Africa. We examined survival and recapture probabilities of two species of swifts by capture–mark–recapture data collected in northern Italy (Pallid Swift Apus pallidus in Carmagnola, Turin, and Common Swift Apus apus in Guiglia, Modena) in the breeding season (May–July). Apparent survival rates were relatively high (>71%), comparable to other studies of European swifts, but showed marked annual variations. We used geolocators to establish the exact wintering areas of birds breeding in our study colonies. Common Swifts explored the Sahel zone during migration and spent the winter in SE Africa, while the Pallid Swifts remained in the Sahel zone for a longer time, shifting locations southeast down to Cameroun and Nigeria later in winter. These movements followed the seasonal rains from north to south (October to December). In both species, we found large yearly differences in survival probabilities related to different climatic indices. In the Pallid Swift, wintering in Western Africa, the Sahel rainfall index best explained survival, with driest seasons associated with reduced survival. In the Common Swift, wintering in SE Africa, the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle performed significantly better than Sahel rainfall or North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Extreme events and precipitation anomalies in Eastern Africa during La Niña events resulted in reduced survival probabilities in Common Swifts. Our study shows that the two species of swifts have similar average annual survival, but their survival varies between years and is strongly affected by different climatic drivers associated with their respective wintering areas. This finding could suggest important ecological diversification that should be taken into account when comparing survival and area use of similar species that migrate between temperate breeding areas and tropical wintering areas.     

Radio‐transmitters do not affect seasonal mass change or annual survival of wintering Bicknell's Thrushes

ABSTRACT Studies of the effects of transmitters on passerines have provided mixed results, but many have revealed no negative impacts. Most such studies have been conducted during the breeding season and, as a result, little is known about the possible effects of transmitters on wintering birds. We examined the effects of transmitters on Bicknell's Thrushes (Catharus bicknelli) wintering in the Dominican Republic. We used long‐term mark‐recapture data to compare birds with radio‐transmitters (N= 5 years, 64 individuals) to birds banded, but not radio‐tagged (N= 10 years, 164 individuals). For a subset of birds in each category, we measured the change in mass between early‐winter and late‐winter and, for all birds, we calculated return rates and modeled annual survival by sex and age classes. Return rates of radio‐tagged (16%) and banded‐only individuals (17%) did not differ, and survival models including the effect of transmitter attachment were poorly supported. We also found no sex or age‐specific effects of transmitter attachment. Radio‐tagged and banded‐only birds did not differ either in the proportion of birds gaining mass during the winter or amount of mass gained. Our results indicate that attaching light‐weight transmitters (<5% of body mass) to wintering Bicknell's Thrushes did not adversely affect either body condition or annual survival.     

Population dynamics of the White Stork Ciconia ciconia in western France

Population dynamics of the White Stork Ciconia ciconia were studied in Charente-Maritime, France from 1978 to 1996, during which time the number of breeding pairs increased from one to 44. Modal age at first return and first breeding were 2.4 and 3.4 years, respectively. White Storks produced an average of 3.2 fledglings per nest. The average number of fledglings per nest decreased with increasing nest density, probably because of an increase in the number of interactions between breeding birds. Nests surrounded by marshes had slightly greater productivity than nests on peripheral sites. Individual White Storks followed an annual breeding cycle and attempted to breed in 97% of seasons once mature. Nest-site and mate fidelity were high (88 and 83%, respectively). Immigration rate was nearly twice that of emigration during the last few years of the study and recruitment was close to 30%, although underestimated. We modelled survival and recapture probabilities using capture-mark-recapture methods. Adult survival was found to be dependent on age, but not sex. Survival of younger birds varied greatly over the years, whereas survival of older birds was relatively constant and averaged 78%. Survival rates of young birds wintering in the Sahel zone were positively linked to the amount of rainfall in their wintering area. The proximate reason for the population increase was probably immigration of birds from other European countries, probably encouraged by a high adult survival rate. Ringing recoveries indicate that some birds winter in Spain and the high adult survival rate may reflect a change in migratory pattern in recent years. Finally, reproductive success was relatively high during the study.     

The effects of raptor predation on wintering wader populations at the Tyningharne estuary, southeast Scotland

Raptor predation on waders was studied by direct observation of raptors hunting a known wader population and subsequent recovery of dead waders. In each of three winters, raptor predation was shown to be the most significant cause of mortality in most small wader species, Sparrowhawks Accipiter nisus , Merlins Falco columbarius and Peregrines F. pere-grinus attacked waders with a success rate of 11.6%. 8.8% and 6.8%, respectively. Most waders attacked or found dead were Redshank Tringa totanus and Dunlin Calidris alpina; most were killed by Sparrowhawks. Kleptoparasitism of raptors carrying prey by Carrion Crows Corvus corone significantly increased the winter mortality of some waders. Redshank populations were most affected by raptor predation: over 50% of the total population (which was found to be closed during most of the winter) and over 90% of the juvenile population were taken in two winters: juvenites were more likely to be killed by raptors.     

Density-dependent mortality of wintering Dunlins Calidris alpina through predation by Eurasian Sparrowhawks Accipiter nisus

Density-dependent mortality in wintering shorebirds is critical to shorebird population dynamics, but is difficult to study and demonstrate. Most winter mortality of small shorebirds probably results from predation by raptors. Over 13 winters, I studied Eurasian Sparrowhawk Accipiter nisus predation on wintering Dunlins Calidris alpina at a rocky shore in south-east Scotland, a site apparently of marginal suitability for wintering Dunlins. Most Dunlins on the study site were juveniles (first winter birds), and winter juvenile mortality rate due to Sparrowhawk predation was strongly and positively related to Dunlin density (maximum winter count). There was no indication of any marked effect of weather on Dunlin winter mortality rate, except that mortality was slightly greater in winters with lower temperatures. Dunlin mortality was unrelated to the mortality through Sparrowhawk predation of a preferred prey, the Redshank Tringa totanus , or to sighting rates of hawks, suggesting that increased hunting of Redshanks by hawks or a numerical response by hawks were not involved in density-dependent mortality of Dunlins.     

Shifting nonbreeding distributions of migratory fauna in relation to climatic change

The distributions of eight out of nine common species of waders (Charadrii) overwintering on UK estuaries have changed in association with recent climate change. These birds represent a high proportion of various populations from breeding grounds as far apart as Greenland to the west to high‐arctic Russia to the east. During warmer winters, smaller proportions of seven species wintered in south‐west Britain. The distributions of the smaller species show the greatest temperature dependence. The opposite was found for the largest species and no relationship was found for a particularly site‐faithful species. In north‐west Europe, the winter isotherms have a broadly north to south alignment, with the east being colder than the west. The average minimum winter temperatures across the UK having increased by about 1.5°C since the mid‐1980s, the temperatures on the east coast during recent winters have been similar to those of the west coast during the mid‐1980s. On average, estuaries on the east and south coasts of Britain have muddier sediments than those on the west coast and thus support a higher biomass of the invertebrate prey of waders. We suggest that, with global climatic change, the advantage gained by waders wintering in the milder west to avoid cold weather‐induced mortality is diminished. Consequently, more choose to winter in the east and thus benefit from better foraging opportunities. The implications of these results are considered in terms of a site‐based approach to wildlife protection used in Europe and elsewhere.     

Density‐dependent survival and recruitment in a long‐distance Palaearctic migrant,the Sand Martin Riparia riparia

Long‐term studies can provide powerful insights into the relative importance of different demographic and environmental factors determining avian population dynamics. Here we use 23 years of capture–mark–recapture data (1981–2003) to estimate recruitment and survival rates for a Sand Martin Riparia riparia population in Cheshire, NW England. Inter‐annual variation in recruitment and adult survival was positively related to rainfall in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds, but unrelated to weather conditions on the breeding grounds. After allowing for the effects of African rainfall, both demographic rates were negatively density‐dependent: adult survival was related to the size of the western European Sand Martin population (probably reflecting competition for resources in the shared wintering grounds) while recruitment was related to the size of the local study population in Cheshire (potentially reflecting competition for nesting sites or food). Local population size was more sensitive to variation in adult survival than to variation in recruitment, and an increase in population size after 1995 was driven mainly by the impact of more favourable conditions in the African wintering grounds on survival rates of adults. Overwinter survival in this long‐distance Palaearctic migrant is determined partly by the amount of suitable wetland foraging habitat in the sub‐Saharan wintering grounds (which is limited by the extent of summer rainfall) and partly by the number of birds exploiting that habitat.     

Resident and transient dynamics, site fidelity and survival in wintering Blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla: evidence from capture–recapture analyses

In their winter quarters, migrant birds may either remain within a small area (resident strategy) or move frequently over a large area looking for locally abundant food (transient strategy). It has been suggested that both strategies could simultaneously occur in the same population. We used time-since-marking capture–recapture models to infer the coexistence of these two behavioural strategies (transient and resident) among wintering Blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla using weekly recapture data over a 7-year period. A related question is whether Blackcaps, if surviving to the next winter, always return to the same wintering area, so we also used this approach to analyse winter site fidelity and to estimate annual survival probabilities. Model selection supported the existence of heterogeneity in survival estimates for both the within-season and the interannual survival probabilities, i.e. there was evidence for the existence of transients. It was estimated that 26% of the Blackcaps were resident during the winter. Mean apparent annual survival probability was 0.46 (se = ±0.11). However, there was some evidence suggesting that not all individuals showed winter site fidelity. The estimated proportion of individuals that, if alive, returned to the wintering area was 28%. This is the first study to show the existence of these two behavioural strategies (residence and transience) among wintering Blackcaps, and the first confirming this pattern using capture–recapture models. These models considering transient and resident dynamics may become an important tool with which to analyse wintering strategies.     

Long-term variation in the winter resident bird community of Guánica Forest, Puerto Rico: lessons for measuring and monitoring species richness

ABSTRACT.   Because the winter season is potentially limiting for migratory birds, understanding their nonbreeding distributional patterns is essential. At a given site, patterns of species occurrence and abundance may vary over time and, within a species, wintering strategies may vary with regard to the degree that individuals are site-faithful both within and between winters. We examined long-term patterns in the composition of a winter resident bird community to determine how long a site must be studied to understand the wintering community. Over a 34-yr period of constant-effort mist netting at a site in Guánica, Puerto Rico, we captured 21 species of winter resident birds, with mean total captures varying from 8.3 to 18.9 individuals per net line and 6–14 species captured per year. Species richness capture/recapture models generated numbers similar to actual capture rates. Capture and recapture data allowed us to categorize winter residents into three groups: sporadic winter residents (14 species), regular winter residents (four species captured nearly every year), and dominant winter residents (three species captured each year with high rates of recapture). Our results suggest that sampling for at least three consecutive winters is needed to accurately characterize the bird community at a site. However, sampling for 5 yr is better, and 10-yr samples generate patterns similar to those based on our entire 34-yr sample. A 1-yr sample provides minimal information about the composition and characteristics of a winter resident bird community.     

Comparing the seasonal survival of resident and migratory oystercatchers: carry‐over effects of habitat quality and weather conditions

Events happening in one season can affect life‐history traits at (the) subsequent season(s) by carry‐over effects. Wintering conditions are known to affect breeding success, but few studies have investigated carry‐over effects on survival. The Eurasian oystercatcher Haematopus ostralegus is a coastal wader with sedentary populations at temperate sites and migratory populations in northern breeding grounds of Europe. We pooled continental European ringing‐recovery datasets from 1975 to 2000 to estimate winter and summer survival rates of migrant and resident populations and to investigate long‐term effects of winter habitat changes. During mild climatic periods, adults of both migratory and resident populations exhibited survival rates 2% lower in summer than in winter. Severe winters reduced survival rates (down to 25% reduction) and were often followed by a decline in survival during the following summer, via short‐term carry‐over effects. Habitat changes in the Dutch wintering grounds caused a reduction in food stocks, leading to reduced survival rates, particularly in young birds. Therefore, wintering habitat changes resulted in long‐term (>10 years) 8.7 and 9.4% decrease in adult annual survival of migrant and resident populations respectively. Studying the impact of carry‐over effects is crucial for understanding the life history of migratory birds and the development of conservation measures.     

Survival of Afro‐Palaearctic passerine migrants in western Europe and the impacts of seasonal weather variables

Populations of migratory songbirds in western Europe show considerable variation in population trends between species and regions. The demographic and environmental causes of these large‐scale patterns are poorly understood. Using data from Constant Effort mist‐netting studies, we investigated relationships between changes in abundance, adult survival and seasonal weather conditions among 35 western European populations of eight species of migratory warblers (Sylviidae). We used cross‐species and within‐species comparisons to assess whether annual variation in survival was correlated with weather conditions during passage or winter. We estimated survival using CJS mark‐recapture models accounting for variation in the proportion of transient individuals and recapture rates. Species wintering in the humid bioclimatic zone of western Africa had significantly higher annual survival probabilities than species wintering in the arid bioclimatic zone of Africa (the Sahel). Rainfall in the Sahel was positively correlated with survival in at least some populations of five species. We found substantially fewer significant relationships with indices of weather during the autumn and spring passage periods, which may be due to the use of broad‐scale indices. Annual population changes were correlated with adult survival in all of our study species, although species undergoing widespread declines showed the weakest relationships.     

Seasonal survival estimation for a long-distance migratory bird and the influence of winter precipitation

Conservation of migratory animals requires information about seasonal survival rates. Identifying factors that limit populations, and the portions of the annual cycle in which they occur, are critical for recognizing and reducing potential threats. However, such data are lacking for virtually all migratory taxa. We investigated patterns and environmental correlates of annual, oversummer, overwinter, and migratory survival for adult male Kirtland’s warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii), an endangered, long-distance migratory songbird. We used Cormack–Jolly–Seber models to analyze two mark–recapture datasets: 2006–2011 on Michigan breeding grounds, and 2003–2010 on Bahamian wintering grounds. The mean annual survival probability was 0.58 ± 0.12 SE. Monthly survival probabilities during the summer and winter stationary periods were relatively high (0.963 ± 0.005 SE and 0.977 ± 0.002 SE, respectively). Monthly survival probability during migratory periods was substantially lower (0.879 ± 0.05 SE), accounting for ~44% of all annual mortality. March rainfall in the Bahamas was the best-supported predictor of annual survival probability and was positively correlated with apparent annual survival in the subsequent year, suggesting that the effects of winter precipitation carried over to influence survival probability of individuals in later seasons. Projection modeling revealed that a decrease in Bahamas March rainfall >12.4% from its current mean could result in negative population growth in this species. Collectively, our results suggest that increased drought during the non-breeding season, which is predicted to occur under multiple climate change scenarios, could have important consequences on the annual survival and population growth rate of Kirtland’s warbler and other Neotropical–Nearctic migratory bird species.     

WEIGHT AND CULMEN CHANGES IN

Summers, R.W. &; Kaletja-Summers, B. 1996. Seasonal use of sandflats and saltmarshes by waders at low and high tide at Langebaan Lagoon, South Africa. Ostrich 67:72-79.

Migrant and resident waders were counted on sandflats and saltmarshes at low and high tide during two summers (197576 and 1976–77) and two winters (1975 and 1976) at Langebaan Lagoon. Intertidal sandflats supported higher densities of waders than saltmarshes at low tide in summer (18.7 and 17.2 waders ha' on sandflats compared with 0.4 and 2.9 waders ha' on saltmarshes) and winter (0.9 and 3.1 compared with 0.6 and 1.9 waders ha I for the two years). At high tide, most waders moved onto saltmarshes, attaining densities of 70.4 and 53.6 waders ha' in the two summers, and 5.7 and 15.6 birds ha' in the two winters. Resident waders comprised 0.3 and 0.8% of the wader community in the two summers and 41 and 5% in the two winters. They were also at higher densities in winter than in summer. The composition of wader communities on the different sandflats varied little in summer and Curlew Sandpipers were the most abundant species on all sandflats. Minor variations in species composition included proportionately more Turnstones at the mouth of the lagoon, more Sanderlings and Whimbrels in the mid sections and more Terek Sandpipers, Greenshanks and Curlews in the upper part. Larger percentages of waders were foraging on the sandflats at low tide in both summer (96 and 92% for the two summers) and winter (85 and 94% for the two winters) compared with the saltmarshes (73 and 79% in the two summers and 60 and 81% in the two winters). A larger proportion of small waders were foraging on sandflats at low tide compared with large waders. At high tide on the saltmarshes, the percent of foraging birds was lower in summer (29% for both summers) than in winter (36 and 78% for the two winters), perhaps reflecting seasonal changes in energy requirements.     

State uncertainty models and mark‐resight models for understanding non‐breeding site use by Piping Plovers

Conservation of beach‐nesting medium‐distance migrants has focused on breeding areas because protection of nests is more tractable than protection of non‐breeding habitat. As breeding ground management has encountered diminishing returns, interest in understanding threats in non‐breeding areas has increased. However, robust estimates of non‐breeding demographic rates and abundance are generally lacking, hindering the study of limiting factors. Estimating such rates is made more difficult by complex population dynamics at non‐breeding sites. In South Carolina, endangered Piping Plovers Charadrius melodus start arriving in July and some depart prior to December (the autumn‐only population) while others remain through at least March (the wintering population). State uncertainty capture‐mark‐recapture models provide a means for estimating vital rates for such co‐occurring populations. We estimated the proportion of the population entering the study area per survey (entry probability) and proportion remaining per survey (persistence rate) for both populations during autumn, and abundance of the wintering population, at four sites in South Carolina in 2006/7 and 2007/8, taking advantage of birds previously colour‐ringed on the breeding grounds. We made fairly precise estimates of entry and persistence rates with small sample sizes. Cumulative entry probability was ~50% by the end of July and reached 95% for both populations by October. Estimated stopover duration for birds in the autumn‐only population was 35 days in year 1 and 42 days in year 2. We estimated a wintering super‐population size of 71 ± 16 se birds in the first year and 75 ± 16 in the second. If ringing programmes on the breeding grounds continue, standardized resighting surveys in the non‐breeding period and mark‐recapture models can provide robust estimates of entry and persistence rates and abundance. Habitat protection intended to benefit non‐breeding Piping Plovers at our coastal sites should be in effect by late summer, as many birds are resident from July to the end of winter.     

Seasonal Variations in the Diet and Foraging Behaviour of Dunlins Calidris alpina in a South European Estuary: Improved Feeding Conditions for Northward Migrants

During the annual cycle, migratory waders may face strikingly different feeding conditions as they move between breeding areas and wintering grounds. Thus, it is of crucial importance that they rapidly adjust their behaviour and diet to benefit from peaks of prey abundance, in particular during migration, when they need to accumulate energy at a fast pace. In this study, we compared foraging behaviour and diet of wintering and northward migrating dunlins in the Tagus estuary, Portugal, by video-recording foraging birds and analysing their droppings. We also estimated energy intake rates and analysed variations in prey availability, including those that were active at the sediment surface. Wintering and northward migrating dunlins showed clearly different foraging behaviour and diet. In winter, birds predominantly adopted a tactile foraging technique (probing), mainly used to search for small buried bivalves, with some visual surface pecking to collect gastropods and crop bivalve siphons. Contrastingly, in spring dunlins generally used a visual foraging strategy, mostly to consume worms, but also bivalve siphons and shrimps. From winter to spring, we found a marked increase both in the biomass of invertebrate prey in the sediment and in the surface activity of worms and siphons. The combination of these two factors, together with the availability of shrimps in spring, most likely explains the changes in the diet and foraging behaviour of dunlins. Northward migrating birds took advantage from the improved feeding conditions in spring, achieving 65% higher energy intake rates as compared with wintering birds. Building on these results and on known daily activity budgets for this species, our results suggest that Tagus estuary provides high-quality feeding conditions for birds during their stopovers, enabling high fattening rates. These findings show that this large wetland plays a key role as a stopover site for migratory waders within the East Atlantic Flyway.     

Annual survival rates of adult Red-necked Nightjars Caprimulgus ruficollis

Nothing is known about the survival rates of Nightjars. Here we estimate annual survival rates of adult Red-necked Nightjars Caprimulgus ruficollis in and around the Donana National Park, southwest Spain. During the period 1989-95, 557 adults were marked and 19.7% of them were recaptured at least once in subsequent years. Capture-recapture models were built to estimate separately survival and recapture probabilities. The final selected model showed that probabilities of recapture differed between years (0.06-0.30) but not between sexes, and were independent of recapture effort. Survival was dependent on the interaction between sex and rainfall, this effect being negative for females and positive for males. However, it is not clear why rainfall influences the survival of males and females differentially due to the lack of accurate information on other life history traits. Average adult survival for the whole period was 0.74 for males (95% CI: 0.63-0.82) and 0.64 for females (95% CI: 0.56-0.72).     

Among‐colony synchrony in the survival of Common Guillemots Uria aalge reflects shared wintering areas

Spatiotemporal variation in survival may be an important driver of multi‐population dynamics in many wild animal species, yet few scientific studies have addressed this issue, primarily due to a lack of sufficiently comprehensive and detailed datasets. Synchrony in survival rates among different, often distant, subpopulations appears to be common, caused by spatially correlated environmental conditions or by movement of animals from different sites such that their ranges overlap. Many seabird populations are effectively isolated during the breeding season because colonies are widely separated, but over the winter, birds disperse widely and there may be much mixing between different populations. The non‐breeding season is also the period of main mortality for seabirds. Using mark–recapture and ring‐recovery data, we tested for spatial, temporal and age‐related correlations in survival of Common Guillemots Uria aalge among three widely separated Scottish colonies that have varying overlap in their overwintering distributions. Survival was highly correlated over time for colonies/age‐classes sharing wintering areas and, except in 2004, was essentially uncorrelated for those with separate wintering areas. These results strongly suggest that one or more aspects of the winter environment are responsible for spatiotemporal variation in survival of British Guillemots, and provide insight into the factors driving large‐scale population dynamics of the species.     

Raptor predation on wintering waders in southeast Scotland

Predation on waders was investigated over the winters of 1982-83 and 1983-84 at a rocky shore and a small estuary in southeast Scotland. Probably all the waders which were found after being eaten were killed by raptors; mammalian predation and death due to severe weather were of minimal importance in comparison to the effects of raptor predation. Sparrowhawks were probably the major predators of waders at both sites, but owls also took some. Differences were found between the rocky shore and the estuary in the species of raptors which were seen (more Peregrines and Merlins seen on the estuary) and in the numbers of wader kills which had been plucked and eaten on open ground (more open ground pluckings, indicative of Peregrines and Merlins, found on the estuary). It is suggested that Peregrines and Merlins took more waders at the estuary due to their preference for hunting over large open expanses. Winter mortality rates due to predation varied in different species of waders: at the rocky shore the Redshank suffered the heaviest winter mortality (20% and 16%) whilst on the estuary the Ringed Plover had the highest winter mortality (19%). At both sites no large waders such as Curlews and Oystercatchers died as a result of predators and for these species other factors, such as severe weather or starvation, appeared to be a greater source of mortality. Significantly more juvenile Redshanks, Turnstones and, probably, Dunlin and Ringed Plovers were found eaten than was expected from the age-composition of their respective populations. In the Redshank and Turnstone several differences in the behaviour of juveniles and adults were discovered which may have made juveniles more vulnerable to predation.     

Survival of Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus in relation to winter climate, density and land-use

1. Global change may strongly affect population dynamics, but mechanisms remain elusive. Several Arctic goose species have increased considerably during the last decades. Climate, and land-use changes outside the breeding area have been invoked as causes but have not been tested. We analysed the relationships between conditions on wintering and migration staging areas, and survival in Svalbard pink-footed geese Anser brachyrhynchus. Using mark-recapture data from 14 winters (1989-2002) we estimated survival rates and tested for time trends, and effects of climate, goose density and land-use. 2. Resighting rates differed for males and females, were higher for birds recorded during the previous winter and changed smoothly over time. Survival rates did not differ between sexes, varied over time with a nonsignificant negative trend, and were higher for the first interval after marking (0.88-0.97) than afterwards (0.74-0.93). Average survival estimates were 0.967 (SE 0.026) for the first and 0.861 (SE 0.023) for all later survival intervals. 3. We combined 16 winter and spring climate covariates into two principal components axes. F1 was related to warm/wet winters and an early spring on the Norwegian staging areas and F2 to dry/cold winters. We expected that F1 would be positively related to survival and F2 negatively. F1 explained 23% of survival variation (F1,10=3.24; one-sided P=0.051) when alone in a model and 28% (F1,9=4.50; one-sided P=0.031) in a model that assumed a trend for survival. In contrast, neither F2 nor density, land-use, or scaring practices on important Norwegian spring staging areas had discernible effects on survival. 4. Climate change may thus affect goose population dynamics, with warmer winters and earlier springs enhancing survival and fecundity. A possible mechanism is increased food availability on Danish wintering and Norwegian staging areas. As geese are among the main herbivores in Arctic ecosystems, climate change, by increasing goose populations, may have important indirect effects on Arctic vegetation. Our study also highlights the importance of events outside the breeding area for the population dynamics of migrant species.