Pesticides and birds—A review of the situation in Great Britain in 1965

Capsule Arrival date strongly influenced date of breeding and breeding success.

Aim To check our hypothesis that in years with low April temperatures, i.e. when storks started to breed, the relationship between timing of breeding and success would be absent, meaning that migrants would have no advantage by returning early to their breeding area.

Methods We collected data in Poznań province, western Poland during the period 1983–2002. Based on local climatological data we selected eight cold spring years and compared them with the 12 ‘normal’ years. We analysed how weather affected the timing and arrival pattern of White Stork.

Results The two groups of years did not differ significantly in population size, but in normal years the arrival date of both parents was earlier. Arrival date strongly influenced (was positively correlated with) date of breeding and (negatively correlated with) breeding success.

Conclusion The slopes describing the above relationships did not differ significantly between the two groups of years. Therefore, we speculate that natural selection strongly favours birds that return early from the wintering grounds.     

Modelling the spatial distribution of White Stork Ciconia ciconia breeding populations in Southeast Europe

Capsule Spatial environmental modelling well predicted nesting distribution of the White stork in Southeast Europe and can be used in conservation planning with respect to climate change.

Aims To create spatial models for predicting White Stork presence and densities in the Southeast Europe to identify areas of suitable habitat for White Storks.

Methods We quantified the habitat used by nesting White storks in Southeast Europe. Using spatial modelling, we defined a set of free and available online environmental variables that predict the breeding localities of the species. We employed pseudo-absences and the kriging of the residuals in order to create predictive models of nest presence and density.

Results The presence–absence model was found to be precise in predicting the presence of nests. Both density and presence of breeding pairs were best explained negatively by elevation, slope, minimum temperature during May, and distance to the nearest human settlement and positively by topographic wetness index, total area of human settlement and spring precipitation.

Conclusion Our robust and easily repeatable models offer a conservation tool to reveal suitable but unoccupied localities for breeding White Storks pairs which may inform our understanding of how climate change might affect the species' distribution in the future. For example, protecting White Storks on the Dalmatian coast may become even more significant in the future, because the Dalmatian coast is predicted as the only suitable breeding area in Croatia later this century.     

Food from dumps increases the reproductive value of last laid eggs in the White Stork Ciconia ciconia

Capsule Accessing extra food from waste dumps increases egg volume and hatching mass in White Storks.

Aim To test how White Storks vary their investment in egg size, especially in last laid eggs, in relation to food availability, and to improve our understanding of the importance of extra feeding on intra-clutch variation.

Methods The study was carried out in three White Stork breeding colonies in northern Algeria. Breeding performance was recorded in 70 nests over three years. White Stork colonies situated close to chicken farms were considered to be part of a ‘pseudo experiment’ where parents had access to extra food. Egg volume, laying order, hatching order and hatching weight were recorded.

Results Egg volume and hatching mass in White Storks was significantly greater when they had access to extra food. The reproductive value of last laid eggs (fourth and fifth) doubled when females had access to extra food.

Conclusion Laying smaller last eggs within a clutch provides a mechanism to facilitate early brood reduction in the White Stork, and so should be advantageous when food is scarce. On the contrary, when females had access to extra food, last laid eggs were as big as first eggs which suggests egg size variation is adaptable to local conditions.     

The effect of migration strategy and food availability on White Stork Ciconia ciconia breeding success

In the mid 1970s, the breeding populations of the migrant White Stork Ciconia ciconia were close to extinction in the northeastern region of France (Alsace). A re-introduction project was implemented, resulting in the year-round settlement of some individuals in the region, which rely on additional food supplied by humans during the winter. Today, both resident and migrant birds breed in the same areas and take food from rubbish dumps and humans (farmers). The effects of these anthropogenic influences, altering Stork behaviour, on Stork reproductive success are not known. The aim of this study was to test the influence of bird status (resident vs. migrant) and food availability (control nests vs. nests that benefit from high food supply) on reproductive success. In control nests, the mean laying date was earlier in resident than in migrant White Storks. There was also a clear seasonal decline in clutch size. For all nests, the numbers of eggs and hatchlings were higher in resident birds than in migrants, which can be attributed to the earlier breeding of resident Storks. The large broods of resident birds showed a high mortality rate, leading to the same fledgling success (fledglings/hatchlings) and number of fledglings as in migrants. Fledgling success and the number of fledglings were higher for nests close to a reliable food supply. In summary, although resident birds can breed earlier and produce more eggs than migrants, we found no advantage in terms of number of fledglings. The higher mortality rate of chicks found in pairs with a large brood could be caused by the deterioration of their habitat. Thus, the year-round settlement of Storks may not present a biological advantage if the quality of their habitat is not guaranteed by the conservation of their grasslands.     

挠力河流域东方白鹳生境质量变化景观模拟

挠力河流域是濒危水禽东方白鹳主要繁殖区域。基于东方白鹳主要生境因子与景观植被类型之间的关系,利用GIS技术,以其生境类型图为基础,通过建立HSI模型,模拟评价了近40年来东方白鹳生境质量变化过程。结果显示（1）该流域湿地面积丧失了87％;（2）两种重要生境类型完全丧失,湖泊数量丧失93％左右,岛状林湿地数量丧失66％;（3）湿地景观的这些变化以及地理隔离导致了东方白鹳最佳适宜生境面积减少了95％,最小繁殖生境面积减少了97％;（4）东方白鹳种群数量迅速下降,20世纪80年代后其繁殖种群逐渐消失;（5）研究也显示,东方白鹳潜在的生境质量使该区依然具有恢复一定种群数量的能力。     

The magnitude and timing of migration by soaring raptors, pelicans and storks over Israel

The magnitude and timing of the autumn and spring migrations of 35 species of medium-and large-sized raptors, White Pelicans Pelicanus onocrotalus and White Storks Ciconia ciconia were studied in Israel. Observations were carried out from the ground by a line of observers covering most of the width of Israel across the line of migration and by radar. There was a high correlation between the counts obtained by ground observers and by radar. On average, about half a million raptors (mainly Lesser Spotted Eagles Aquila po-marina, Honey Buzzards Pernis apivorus and Levant Sparrowhawks Accipiter brevipes), 250,000 White Storks and 70,000 White Pelicans passed during autumn, and about a million raptors (mainly Honey Buzzards, Steppe Buzzards Buteo vulpinus, Steppe Eagles Aquila nipalensis and Black Kites Milvus migrans) and 450,000 White Storks passed during spring. Peak numbers were higher–over a million raptors and half a million White Storks. There was high interyear variation in the number of migrants recorded during the study, probably caused by weather and counting efforts. For some species, the whole world (Lesser Spotted Eagle and Levant Sparrowhawk) or Palaearctic (White Pelican) population passes over Israel during migration, allowing an estimate of the world populations of these species. Mean dates of arrival of most raptors are highly predictable, with confidence limits ranging between 1.5 and 5.5 days. The migration periods of White Storks and White Pelicans are longer and their mean day of appearance is less predictable (confidence limits range from 4.2 to 13.8 days). During autumn, 90% of the migrating populations of nocking species, such as Levant Sparrowhawk, Lesser Spotted Eagle, Honey Buzzard and Red-footed Falcon Falco vespertinus, pass within 13, 15, 16 and 18 days, respectively, while nonflocking species, such as Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus, Marsh Harrier Circus aeruginosus and Short-toed Eagle Circaetus gallicus, generally take twice as long to pass. Similar passage periods were recorded in spring. For most species, the autumn migration period was longer than the spring migration period, probably because in autumn adults move before the young birds. Three factors affected the timing and spread of the migration wave: age at first breeding, diet and size of the breeding area.     

Breeding biology of the Little Egret Egretta garzetta on the southern coast of the Bay of Biscay

ABSTRACT

Capsule: Annual reproductive parameters of Little Egrets Egretta garzetta in an Atlantic coastal colony showed strong variation in a 20-year study, mainly due to extreme events.

Aims: To describe the breeding biology of Little Egrets in the Bay of Biscay and compare it with that of the Mediterranean basin. Also, to explore relationships between breeding parameters and colony size with some climatic indicators.

Methods: Phenology, number of nests, clutch size, number of hatchlings, brood size, and hatching and breeding success were recorded over 20 years.

Results: Median laying date of 214 nests was 1 May (range: 1 April–25 June) and 54% of the clutches were laid in the second half of April and the first half of May. Over the 20-year study period mean clutch size of 270 nests was 4.0, mean number of hatchlings was 3.1, and mean brood size was 2.3. Hatching success ranged from 46.1% to 100% and breeding success from zero to 100%. Number of nests was negatively associated with clutch and brood size. The highest clutch size and lowest brood size were recorded at the beginning of the season. Significant relationships were found between the number of hatchlings and the rainfall during the pre-breeding season, and between brood size and the summer rainfall.

Conclusions: Reproductive parameters showed significant variation over the study period, which highlights the importance of using long-term data sets. Breeding occurred one month later than in natural colonies of the Mediterranean basin. Negative relationships between the number of nests and clutch and brood size suggest some degree of density-dependent effects. Ranges of clutch size, number of hatchlings, and brood size were within those reported in Mediterranean populations. The effect of rainfall on reproductive parameters was weak. Extreme weather and predation events caused low rates of hatching and breeding success that affected the growth of the colony.     

Effect of trophic status of a deep-water lake on breeding Great Crested Grebes Podiceps cristatus during a phase of recovery from eutrophication: a long-term study

Capsule: Trophic status of a deep-water lake was the main driver of changes in breeding population size of Great Crested Grebes Podiceps cristatus while reproductive success was also strongly affected by weather parameters.

Aims: To determine the effects of changes in nutrient status of a formerly highly-eutrophicated deep-water lake and other environmental parameters on a Great Crested Grebe population during a phase of re-oligotrophication.

Methods: Annual surveys were carried out on a natural lake in Switzerland over a period of 25 years to determine breeding population size and reproductive success. The effects of phosphorus content, other limnological parameters and weather variables were analysed with quasi-Poisson models.

Results: The breeding population increased from 80 pairs in 1992 to 417 pairs in 2001, after which numbers showed strong fluctuations. Total phosphorus content in the lake had a strong negative effect on breeding population size. A significant positive correlation was found with the national population index. Reproductive success fluctuated strongly but showed an overall decline. The model indicated positive effects on reproductive success of phosphorus and negative effects of the number of days with strong wind. Rapid water-level increases in early summer and water transparency in June led to higher proportions of late broods.

Conclusion: Phosphorus concentration was identified as the main driver affecting the breeding population of Great Crested Grebes during the phase of recovery of the lake from a highly-eutrophic state. Results indicate that mesotrophic to eutrophic conditions enabled a large population and high breeding success. Reproductive output was further negatively affected by strong wind during a critical breeding phase.     

Post‐breeding movements of Wood Storks in Brazil and Argentina

Seasonal migration and the dispersal of juvenile and adult Wood Storks (Mycteria americana) after breeding have been documented in the United States, but little is known about the post‐breeding movements of Wood Storks in South America. Our objective was to identify the locations of post‐breeding areas used by Wood Storks banded as nestlings in breeding colonies in Brazil by analyzing banding data. During the period from 1984 to 2007, 2543 nestlings were banded at breeding colonies in three regions of Brazil, with most (94%) banded in the Pantanal wetland in west‐central Brazil. Seventeen bands were subsequently recovered, with most (14) recovered in southern Brazil and northern Argentina. The mean distance between banding and recovery sites was 1265 km. Our results suggest that Wood Stork movements from breeding areas in Brazil are, as also reported in the United States, in response to changing water levels. The rainy season begins at the end of the breeding season and, in apparent response to rising water levels, Wood Storks in our study moved to drier areas further south with shallower water where they can forage more efficiently. Because only a small percentage of the area where Wood Stork bands were recovered in our study is currently protected, measures are needed to prevent habitat destruction and preserve wetland habitats used by Wood Storks during the post‐breeding period in southern Brazil and Argentina.     

Parental investment asymmetries of a globally endangered scavenger: unravelling the role of gender,weather conditions and stage of the nesting cycle

ABSTRACT

Capsule: In Egyptian Vultures Neophron percnopterus, both sexes invested similar parental effort throughout the breeding period. However, there was variation in the degree of intensity of parental care during some stages of the breeding period, suggesting that sex-role specialization exists for some activities.

Aims: To quantify parental care behaviour of Egyptian Vultures for the first time and to examine the role of sex, weather conditions, and stage of nesting cycle on breeding ecology.

Methods: We monitored 15 nests of Egyptian Vultures to analyse parental care investment. We collected data on nine different behavioural parameters/activities per sex, which were recorded throughout the entire breeding period. Variation in parental investment was analysed using generalized linear mixed models.

Results: Females invested more effort in incubation/brooding (61.45% for females and 31.54% for males) and egg turning (0.45?events/h for females and 0.37?events/h for males) while males contributed more to nest material delivery to the nest (0.67?deliveries/h for males and 0.14?deliveries/h for females). Conversely, both sexes invested the same effort in nestling attendance (21.89% for females and 21.21% for males) and food provisioning (0.28?items/h for females and 0.25?items/h for males). Furthermore, parental investment was not affected by weather, especially during critical moments such as incubation/brooding, however, changeover rate was positively related to temperature.

Conclusion: Our results suggest that, in the Egyptian Vulture, one sex is not entirely responsible for a particular task and the compensatory effort of the other mate is required. Finally, our findings indicate that major events such as incubation onset and hatching caused important shifts in the patterns of parental investment.     

Weather conditions affect the collective roosting behaviour of the Cattle Egret Bubulcus ibis

ABSTRACT

Capsule: Collective roosting behaviour of the Cattle Egret Bubulcus ibis was influenced by the weather and the season.

Aims: To document the roosting behaviour of the Cattle Egret and assess the relationship between weather conditions and four components of the roosting behaviour including the population size, duration of roost occupancy, the timing of roost gathering and the rate of arrival at roost.

Methods: We recorded the number and arrival times of individuals occupying a communal roost site in northeast Algeria in 2013–2014 between December and April.

Results: There was a seasonal decline of the flock size and rate of arrival and a seasonal increase in the duration of gathering. Weather conditions affected all variables assessed in roosting behaviour such that bad weather lowered the number of individuals in the roost, lengthened the duration and advanced the timing of gathering, and reduced the rate of gathering in the roost.

Conclusion: Our study highlights the importance of weather conditions in shaping the collective roosting behaviour of a gregarious species. Our results suggest that future changes in climatic conditions might influence the collective behaviour of the Cattle Egret in particular and gregarious birds in general.     

Population dynamics of the White Stork Ciconia ciconia in western France

Population dynamics of the White Stork Ciconia ciconia were studied in Charente-Maritime, France from 1978 to 1996, during which time the number of breeding pairs increased from one to 44. Modal age at first return and first breeding were 2.4 and 3.4 years, respectively. White Storks produced an average of 3.2 fledglings per nest. The average number of fledglings per nest decreased with increasing nest density, probably because of an increase in the number of interactions between breeding birds. Nests surrounded by marshes had slightly greater productivity than nests on peripheral sites. Individual White Storks followed an annual breeding cycle and attempted to breed in 97% of seasons once mature. Nest-site and mate fidelity were high (88 and 83%, respectively). Immigration rate was nearly twice that of emigration during the last few years of the study and recruitment was close to 30%, although underestimated. We modelled survival and recapture probabilities using capture-mark-recapture methods. Adult survival was found to be dependent on age, but not sex. Survival of younger birds varied greatly over the years, whereas survival of older birds was relatively constant and averaged 78%. Survival rates of young birds wintering in the Sahel zone were positively linked to the amount of rainfall in their wintering area. The proximate reason for the population increase was probably immigration of birds from other European countries, probably encouraged by a high adult survival rate. Ringing recoveries indicate that some birds winter in Spain and the high adult survival rate may reflect a change in migratory pattern in recent years. Finally, reproductive success was relatively high during the study.     

Investigating the influence of local weather conditions and alternative prey composition on the breeding performance of urban Eurasian Kestrels Falco tinnunculus

Capsule: Local weather conditions, but not a city-associated diet composition, influence the breeding performance of urban Eurasian Kestrels Falco tinnunculus.

Aims: We aim to explore the impact of diet composition, specifically a high proportion of avian prey, on the breeding performance of urban Eurasian Kestrels under different weather conditions.

Methods: The Eurasian Kestrel is known to exploit cities and occurs in the study area of Vienna, Austria (415?km²) at high breeding densities of 89–122 pairs/100?km². Unlike their rural conspecifics which specialize in voles, urban Kestrels are generalists, preying on passerines and mammals, but also reptiles and insects. We explore this alternative diet through pellet analyses along an urbanization gradient over a 5-year period and link diet to reproductive performance, taking local weather conditions into account.

Results: Our results showed that weather had a greater influence on breeding performance than did diet. Warm and dry weather during the arrival and courtship period was correlated with earlier egg-laying, higher nestling survival and an overall higher breeding success. Dry winters increased the proportion of mammalian prey, whereas low temperatures and high rainfall during the nestling phase increased the proportion of avian prey. Overall, a more diverse diet was also associated with higher rainfall, but only during the arrival and courtship period.

Conclusion: Our research shows a stronger connection between breeding performance and weather conditions than between breeding performance and diet composition, although there may be indirect effects of weather on prey availability which augment the impact of diet on reproductive output in the Eurasian Kestrel.     

云南纳帕海湿地越冬黑鹳种群动态和迁徙

掌握种群动态以及迁徙习性对濒危候鸟的保护至关重要。2004~2005、2007~2008、2008~2009年的冬季(10月~次年4月),采用夜栖地直接计数法对云南省纳帕海湿地黑鹳(Ciconia nigra)的种群数量进行了监测。结果表明,在2004~2005、2007~2008、2008~2009年冬季,纳帕海湿地越冬黑鹳种群平均数量分别为39.6、128.6、181.8只,呈逐年增加的趋势;通常黑鹳10月下旬迁来,至次年3月中下旬迁离;纳帕海同时也是繁殖于蒙古国的黑鹳迁往印度越冬地的重要停歇地,过境时间集中在 11月中上旬。纳帕海湿地已经成为国内最为重要的黑鹳越冬地和迁徙停歇地,建议当地管理部门加强湿地管理,维持适当的浅水区域作为黑鹳的觅食地,另外需加强旅游管理,减少游客对黑鹳的干扰。     

Long-distance migration timing of Tringa sandpipers adjusted to recent climate change

Capsule Evidence for earlier spring migration of Tringa sandpipers after warmer winters, but no clear pattern concerning autumn migration timing.

Aim To analyse the timing of migration of three Tringa sandpipers between 1966 and 2002 with respect to recent global warming on a local and a hemispheric scale.

Methods I analysed long-term migration timing variation in Greenshank Tringa nebularia, Spotted Redshank T. erythropus and Wood Sandpiper T. glareola at four Central European staging sites. Variation in passage onset, median and end per migration period was analysed using stepwise regression with respect to variation in (i) local abundance, residence time and age-dependent abundance as an estimate of breeding success and (ii) climate at the staging sites, snowmelt at the presumed central breeding area and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).

Results All three species consistently showed an overall spring migration advance and autumn migration delay. Autumn passage timing varied with both climatic conditions at the breeding area and breeding success, while in 43% of all cases spring passage correlated with local and hemispheric climate variation.

Conclusion The distinction between population dynamic and climatic effects on timing of autumn migration requires separate data for local adult and juvenile passage or a larger sample of sites. In spring, the data strongly suggest a flexible response of migration timing to local weather conditions and the hemispheric variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation. This indicates that even long-distance migrants are able to adjust their overall migration pattern to fluctuating environmental conditions on a phenotypic basis.     

The use of thermals by soaring migrants

The use of thermals during the spring and autumn migration across Israel by four species of soaring birds (White Pelican Pelecanus onocrotalus, White Stork Ciconia ciconia, Lesser Spotted Eagle Aquila pomarina and Honey Buzzard Pernis apivorus) was studied by monitoring them with a motorized glider, light aircraft and radar. This is the first study in which soaring migrants have been followed in flight for any length of time and their flight performance has been recorded directly. The birds flew in an average height band between 344 and 1123 m above ground level. Altitude increased from the morning towards noon and decreased again in the afternoon. Average velocities were 29.2 km/h, 38.7 km/h, 50.9 km/h and 45.2 km/h for White Pelicans, White Storks, Lesser Spotted Eagles and Honey Buzzards, respectively. Atmospheric conditions had a major effect on flight velocity. White Storks showed a positive correlation between the flight velocity and the height between the base and top of the thermals. In White Pelicans, there was a correlation between velocity and mean height. Wing load (body mass/wing area) was positively related to the climbing time in thermals and negatively related to the mean height used by a species. There was also a positive, but not significant, relationship between wing load and velocity. Soaring birds appreciably extend the distance covered in migration in relation to the straight line from their breeding to wintering grounds (by 48–91%). The increased distance, caused through circumventing sea areas, ranged between 22–34%, while the increase resulting from soaring accounted for an additional 22–57% of the route.     

Invasive predators and the conservation of island birds: the case of American Mink Mustela vison and terns Sterna spp. in the Western Isles,Scotland

Capsule Colonies were larger and breeding success lower in mink-inhabited areas.

Aims To examine the impact of mink on dense aggregations of ground-breeding seabirds on islands previously isolated from mammalian predators.

Methods We compare 1990–93 tern breeding data with records before and after mink arrival.

Results In the early 1990s, terns showed no preference for mink-free islands. The breeding behaviour and success of tern colonies in mink-inhabited areas did not significantly differ from that in mink-free areas. However, colonies were larger and breeding success lower in mink-inhabited areas compared to mink-free areas, trends which might reflect longer term mink impact.

Conclusions As mink spread south there seems to be a gradual increase in tern colony size affecting Lewis, then Harris and, recently, the Sound of Harris.     

Extreme spring conditions in the Arctic delay spring phenology of long-distance migratory songbirds

Arctic regions are warming rapidly, with extreme weather events increasing in frequency, duration, and intensity just as in other regions. Many studies have focused on how shifting seasonality in environmental conditions affects vegetation phenology, while far fewer have examined how the breeding phenology of arctic fauna responds. We studied two species of long-distance migratory songbirds, Lapland longspurs, Calcarius lapponicus, and white-crowned sparrows, Zonotrichia leucophrys gambelii, across five consecutive breeding seasons in northern Alaskan tundra. We aimed to understand how spring environmental conditions affected breeding cycle phenology, including the timing of arrival on breeding grounds, territory establishment, and clutch initiation. Spring temperatures, precipitation, and snow-free dates differed significantly among years, with 2013 characterized by unusually late snow cover. In response, we found a significant delay in breeding-cycle phenology for both study species in 2013 relative to other study years: the first bird observed was delayed by 6–10 days, with mean arrival by 3–6 days, territory establishment by 6–13 days, and clutch initiation by 4–10 days. Further, snow cover, temperature, and precipitation during the territory establishment period were important predictors of clutch initiation dates for both species. These findings suggest that Arctic-breeding passerine communities may have the flexibility required to adjust breeding phenology in response to the increasingly extreme and unpredictable environmental conditions—although future generations may encounter conditions that exceed their current range of phenological flexibility.     

内蒙古赛罕乌拉国家级自然 保护区黑鹳繁殖记述

黑鹳(Ciconia nigra)种群数量稀少,成活率低,为国家Ⅰ级重点保护物种,加强对黑鹳的保护已刻不容缓。内蒙古赛罕乌拉国家级自然保护区是黑鹳的重要繁殖栖息地,开展繁殖行为研究有助于提高对黑鹳的保护成效。2012至2015年对2处黑鹳繁殖巢址进行了繁殖期观察。2012年5月15日首次发现1巢内有4枚卵并有亲鸟在巢中孵卵,6月7日孵化出4只幼雏,8月底全部成功离巢。2013年4月黑鹳利用该巢产卵5枚,孵化1只雏鸟,孵卵期约33 d,后期卵、雏鸟均消失,推测为来自蛇类的捕食。2014、2015年该巢未被利用。2014年4月24日发现另外一处巢址,8月12日观察到3只幼鸟已开始练习飞行,至8月19日全部离巢。2015年该巢孵化雏鸟4只,6月初死于恶劣天气。通过监测发现黑鹳连续多年在保护区内栖息繁殖,所发现的两巢成功出雏7只个体。本研究初步获得保护区境内黑鹳的繁殖信息,为后续促进黑鹳种群恢复与栖息地保护提供了基础数据。     

Climatic connectivity between Africa and Europe may serve as a basis for phenotypic adjustment of migration schedules of trans-Saharan migratory birds

Most European migratory birds wintering in sub‐Saharan Africa have anticipated arrival to the breeding areas over the past decades. This phenological change may be ultimately caused by warming of the Northern Hemisphere via evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity in migration behavior. First arrival dates are negatively predicted by temperatures upon arrival to the breeding grounds. This seems puzzling, because migrants should be unable to predict weather conditions at long range. Migrants can enjoy diverse fitness benefits from early arriving. However, if weather conditions at destination cannot be predicted, early arrival can also entail severe costs. If meteorological conditions in Europe during breeding covary with those in sub‐Saharan Africa during late winter, long‐distance migrants may have a clue to predict meteorological conditions in their breeding areas while they are still in Africa and adjust their migration schedule consequently, an idea that has never been tested. We analyzed the correlation between March–April temperature anomalies (T_an) in Europe and February T_an in the Sahel and sub‐Sahel, where long‐distance migrants winter or stop‐over. T_an in Africa negatively predicted T_an in Europe, the association being particularly strong (unsigned effect size, z_r>0.35) for eastern Sahel and northern and eastern Europe, where the risks of early arrival may be larger. However, the strength of the correlations between T_an in the two continents has declined during the last 25 years; thus, possibly, partly compromising adaptive mechanisms of adjustment of migration. The existence of such climatic connectivity leads to several predictions, including that positive T_an in Africa should delay arrival. Consistent with this prediction, we found that first arrival dates of seven long‐distance migratory species positively covaried with February T_an in Africa. Thus, while wintering, migrants might be able to predict meteorological conditions at the beginning of the breeding season, and phenotypically adjust migration schedules to optimally tune arrival date.