A survey and GIS-based estimate of the breeding population of Great Snipe Gallinago media in Central Norway

Capsule By using a GIS-model to identify suitable breeding habitats for Great Snipe in Central Norway, we estimated a total of 276 leks holding approximately 2700 males.

Aim To estimate the size of the Great Snipe population in central parts of the species remaining breeding areas in Western Europe.

Methods GIS-analysis identified an area of 528?km² as suitable habitat for Great Snipe in the total study area (22?000?km²). Complete surveys were made in 8% of these habitats by using a subset of 53 sampling areas.

Results A total of 28 Great Snipe leks were found within the sampling areas. Ten of these were found in previously known lek areas, while 18 leks were found in areas with no previous knowledge of leks. Extrapolating the lek density and the lek size found in the surveyed areas, resulted in a total estimate of 276 Great Snipe leks holding approximately 2700 lekking males. The leks were found on open fens along the forest edge and were mainly situated on base-rich bedrocks. Mean altitude of the leks was 570?m.

Conclusion The total population of Great Snipe in Norway was previously assumed to comprise 5000–15?000 lekking males or ‘pairs'. By extrapolating the densities of leks found in Central Norway to a national scale, we expect the true breeding population of Great Snipe to be approximately 13?500 males. Changes in the elevation of the tree limit and increased overgrowth, as a result of reduced grazing pressure and/or global warming, are possible threats that may reduce the availability of preferred Great Snipe habitats and increase population fragmentation.     

The population status of Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus in Scotland during winter 2015–16

Capsule: The population size of Western Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus in Scotland was estimated at 1114 individuals with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 805–1505.

Aim: To produce an updated estimate of Capercaillie population size in Scotland, with improved precision from, but retaining comparability with, previous surveys.

Methods: A random sample of 2?km long line transects was surveyed throughout the current range of the Capercaillie, during winter 2015–16, with sampling in three separate strata. Multi-covariate distance sampling was used to fit detection functions to the Capercaillie data, deriving national, regional and sex-specific estimates of density and abundance.

Results: Across 741 transects, 136 Capercaillie were recorded in 120 separate encounters, giving rise to a population estimate of 1114 individuals (95% CIs: 805–1505). This estimate is 13% lower than that from the previous survey in 2009–10 but the difference is not statistically significant. Most of the population (83%) was estimated to occur in Strathspey, with much smaller numbers in the rest of the range.

Conclusion: The Capercaillie population in Scotland remains at a critically low level. Further evidence of decline in edge of range subpopulations raises serious concern over the viability of Capercaillie in these areas, whereas numbers appear stable in the core of the range in Strathspey. The use of a revised survey design, with greater sampling in the core of the range, improved estimate precision.     

Population size and breeding performance of the Lanner Falcon Falco biarmicus in Sicily: conservation implications

Capsule: We report a significant reduction in population size and breeding success for the Lanner Falcon Falco biarmicus in Sicily, its biggest stronghold in Europe, since the latest coordinated survey.

Aims: To provide updated information on current population size of Lanner Falcon in Sicily and to compare breeding parameters with those obtained in previous studies.

Methods: We performed an intensive coordinated field survey and literature review of breeding success parameters across the species range.

Results: Overall, we monitored 126 territories throughout Sicily where the species had been reported in the last 15 years. Lanner Falcons were present only in 60 of them. Mean nest productivity (± standard deviation) was 1.09?±?1.18 fledged young/checked pairs, flight rate was 2.22?±?0.52 fledged young/successful pairs and breeding success was 49.0%.

Conclusions: Indirect measures aimed at preventing abandonment of occupied territories should be applied, for instance by developing a network of priority areas and slowing down degradation of the pseudo-steppe habitats by agri-environmental schemes. Additionally, direct measures aimed at preventing nest robbery, including the organization of nest guarding activities, and reduction of anthropogenic disturbance and illegal shooting, must be encouraged in order to avoid territory abandonment.     

Living in a world of fire: the population dynamics of Mulinum spinosum in Northwestern Patagonia grasslands

Questions

How do fire frequency and fire size affect the long-term population dynamics of Mulinum spinosum? Which demographic parameters contribute most to the overall effect of fire on population growth? What is the relative importance of resprouting in sustaining population increase?

Location

Grass-shrub northwestern Patagonian steppe, Argentina.

Methods

We monitored five permanent plots excluded from grazing for 6 years. We measured shrub abundance, dimensions, reproductive status, seedling emergence, and the size structure of M. spinosum, a resprouting native shrub inhabiting the northwest Patagonian steppe. Data were used to parametrize a stochastic matrix model developed to explore the influence of fire frequency and fire size on long-term population dynamics. We analyzed hypothetical scenarios that included fire frequencies ranging from one per year up to exclusion.

Results

Except for annual fires, projections show growing populations regardless of fire frequency. For fire return intervals greater than 50 years, the population becomes independent of fires, with an annual population growth rate of 5.6%. The results suggest two relevant aspects of the population dynamics of this species: M. spinosum is well adapted to the current fire frequency and its resprouting capability will allow M. spinosum to survive and persist in the community, even under frequent fires.

Conclusions

Climate change models forecast an increase in summer temperature in NW Patagonia and, consequently, an enhanced fire frequency. Fire is a driver of M. spinosum encroachment that gets worse in overgrazed grasslands. Mulinum spinosum encroachment derivate in a relative replacement of palatable grasses by shrubs changes the ecosystem functionality and reduces productivity. Controlling this process is highly difficult and we suggest a change in the land use for the areas already deteriorated.

     

Changes in the House Sparrow Passer domesticus population in Valencia (Spain) from 1998 to 2008

Capsule The population of House Sparrow Passer domesticus has experienced a sharp decline in the municipality of Valencia.

Aims To investigate the population trends of House Sparrows.

Methods Between September 1998 and December 2008, House Sparrows were censused monthly in 22 urban parks covering a total of 118 ha. Additionally, birds in the wider urban landscape were censused in 24 plots of about 50 ha during the winter and spring of years 1998, 2003 and 2007.

Results The House Sparrow population experienced a significant decline of about 70% over 10 years in urban parks, with monthly peak values decreasing from about 2000 birds in 1998 to about 500 in 2008. Between 1998 and 2007, a significant decline was detected in the urban landscape mostly during the winter.

Conclusions Urban parks are a main feeding habitat for House Sparrows, and habitat structure of urban parks has remained similar throughout these years. Therefore, the decreasing number of sparrows recorded in parks probably reflects an overall population decline of the species in Valencia. This decline has coincided with high‐intensity urban development i.e. an increase in the building density and a reduction in the amount of wastelands and other feeding habitats. Thus, shortage of nest‐sites did not seem to be a limiting factor for the population, but a reduction of food availability may be partially responsible for the observed patterns.     

An empirical test of the estimation of historical effective population size using Drosophila melanogaster

The availability of a large number of high-density markers (SNPs) allows the estimation of historical effective population size (N_e) from linkage disequilibrium between loci. A recent refinement of methods to estimate historical N_e from the recent past has been shown to be rather accurate with simulation data. The method has also been applied to real data for numerous species. However, the simulation data cannot encompass all the complexities of real genomes, and the performance of any estimation method with real data is always uncertain, as the true demography of the populations is not known. Here, we carried out an experimental design with Drosophila melanogaster to test the method with real data following a known demographic history. We used a population maintained in the laboratory with a constant census size of about 2800 individuals and subjected the population to a drastic decline to a size of 100 individuals. After a few generations, the population was expanded back to the previous size and after a few further generations again expanded to twice the initial size. Estimates of historical N_e were obtained with the software GONE both for autosomal and X chromosomes from samples of 17 individuals sequenced for the whole genome. Estimates of the historical effective size were able to infer the patterns of changes that occurred in the populations showing generally good performance of the method. We discuss the limitations of the method and the application of the software carried out so far.     

The population status of breeding Twite Linaria flavirostris in the UK in 2013

Capsule: The second national survey of Twite Linaria flavirostris estimated a UK breeding population of 7831 pairs (95% confidence limits: 5829–10?137) in 2013.

Aims: To estimate the breeding population size of Twite in the UK and constituent countries and to calculate change since the 1999 survey.

Methods: Counts of Twite were made on three visits between May and July across a stratified random sample of 1-km squares in England, Scotland and Wales. In Northern Ireland, a complete census was made of the known range and adjacent 1-km squares with suitable habitat. Field surveys involved walking line transects 200 m apart and, in suitable nesting habitat, making 5-minute stops at 100 m intervals to scan and listen for Twite.

Results: The UK population of Twite was estimated at 7831 pairs (95% CL: 5829–10?137). This was 21% lower but not significantly different from the 1999 survey estimate. Scotland held 98% of the UK population (7640, 95% CL: 5629–9954). There were an estimated 164 pairs (95% CL: 76–297) in England, a significant decline of 72% from 1999. Estimated totals for Wales and Northern Ireland were 16 (95% CL: 10–24) and 18 pairs respectively.

Conclusion: The second national survey suggests a moderate decline in the UK Twite population since 1999 but with considerable variation between countries. Further work is required to understand the drivers of population change across breeding populations.     

THE SYSTEMATIC POSITION OF THE SOUTH AFRICAN GANNET

Summary

Randall, R. M., Randall, B. M., Cooper, J. &; Frost, P. G. H. 1986: A new census method for penguins tested on Jackass Penguins Spheniscus demersus. Ostrich 57: 211–215

A census method for Jackass Penguins based on their moulting cycle is described. Population estimates were substantially higher with this method than with total counts, but were not dissimilar to maximum estimates obtained from strip counts. The moult method estimates the size of the entire population and is independent of the breeding cycle and breeding status of both individuals and population. It is not plagued by the problem of absenteeism encountered during most phases of the penguin annual cycle and is independent on their diel activity. The drawbacks to the method are that it is laborious and protracted, that it does not differentiate between the breeding population and the whole population, and is unsuited to some species and some habitats.     

Genetic integrity and individual identification-based population size estimate of the endangered long-tailed goral,Naemorhedus caudatus from Seoraksan National Park in South Korea,based on a non-invasive genetic approach

ABSTRACT

The long-tailed goral (also called the Amur goral) Naemorhedus caudatus (subfamily Caprinae), a vulnerable and protected species designated by IUCN and CITES, has sharply been declining in the population size and is now becoming critically endangered in South Korea. This species has been conserved as a natural monument by the Korean Cultural Heritage Administration since 1968. In this study, using 78 fecal DNA samples with a non-invasive genetic approach, we assessed the genetic integrity and individual identification-based population size for the goral population from Seoraksan National Park representing the largest wild population in Korea. Using the successfully isolated 38 fecal DNA, phylogeographic and population genetic analyses were performed with mitochondrial DNA control region (CR) sequences and nine microsatellite loci. We found seven CR haplotypes, of which five were unique to the Seoraksan population, considering previously determined haplotypes in Korean populations. The Seoraksan population showed higher haplotype diversity (0.777?±?0.062) and mean number of alleles (4.67?±?1.563) relative to southern populations in Korea reported from previous studies, with no signal of a population bottleneck. Microsatellite-based individual identification estimate based on probability of identity (PID) indicated a population size of ≥30 in this population. Altogether, we suggest that for future management efforts of this species in the Seoraksan National Park, conserving its genetic integrity as an ‘endemic’ lineage, and curbing a decrease in its number through mitigating habitat destruction might be key to secure the population for the long term.     

Historical records and increasing trends of Caribbean Flamingos (Phoenicopterus ruber) on Margarita Island,Venezuela

ABSTRACT

The Caribbean Flamingo (Phoenicopterus ruber) has been a species of conservation concern since the 1960s because of its regional population decline and loss of breeding colonies. In the last two decades, there have been reports of increasing population trends in the Caribbean. The aim of this work is to document the historic population status of flamingos on Margarita Island, Venezuela, and to present an account of their recovery since 2006. In the first half of the twentieth century, flamingos were present on Margarita Island in one location (La Restinga lagoon) in variable numbers (100–800); however, in the 1980s and 1990s, they almost disappeared from the island. In 2006, a group of nine was recorded. During the following years, the population increased in number and expanded eastward on the island. Today, the population size range 1 600–2 000 individuals, are present regularly in at least eight lagoons, and two breeding colonies have been reported. Several threats are still present in the island that can revert the positive population trend. The recovery of the population in Margarita Island is a consequence of successful regional conservation efforts and the maintenance of wetlands with appropriate conditions for the species, particularly in protected areas.     

Usefulness of marine protected areas as tools for preserving the highly endangered limpet,Patella ferruginea,in the Mediterranean Sea

Patella ferruginea is the most endangered endemic marine invertebrate of western Mediterranean rocky shores. From 2012 to 2015, we performed a census and an ecological study for this gastropod mollusc in the Zembra Archipelago National Park in Tunisia, where a large population still remains. In 1986, a total of 20,000 individuals were estimated, with 0.7?ind/m², 4.4?cm adult mean size and low recruitment rate. In 2009, the estimated population reached 38,559 individuals with 2.65?ind/m², 5.42?cm adult mean size and high recruitment rate. During the present work, 43,790 individuals were estimated in 2012, 27,359 in 2013, 33,170 in 2014 and 40,404 in 2015, with an average density ranging from 0.1 to 8.5 individuals per square metre, but reaching as many as 25?ind/m² on some shores. This makes the archipelago one of the most important Mediterranean ‘hot spots’ for P. ferruginea, as it has a large and well-conserved population of this species. Variability of the population size is influenced by various biotic and abiotic factors, but is principally impacted by poaching of the species. The poachers target individuals larger than 6?cm in length, and the sex ratio study has shown that over 70% of individuals become females at that size. In addition, high recruitment rates were recorded in 2012 and 2013, but these decreased in 2014 and 2015, although population numbers show the opposite pattern. Moreover, growth rate is low and P. ferruginea may need many years to reach a large adult size. The loss of reproductive potential due to poaching inevitably causes a significant imbalance in the limpet population. Our results indicate the importance of the National Park for P. ferruginea and underline the need for this species to be protected and monitored over a long period to provide the most appropriate management measures.     

Long-term population declines in Danish trans-Saharan migrant birds

Capsule Long-distance migrant birds show less favourable trends than sedentary/short-distance species.

Aims To use breeding bird surveys to contrast population trends amongst common species according to their migration pattern.

Methods Changes in abundance of 62 Danish breeding sedentary, short-distance (Europe/North Africa) or long-distance (trans-Saharan) migrants were described by fitting log linear regression models to point-count census data gathered during 1976–2005.

Results Trans-Saharan migrants declined by 1.3% per annum during this period, while short-distance migrants and sedentary species increased by 1.4% and 1.0% per annum, respectively. There were no significant decadal declines amongst species using different summer breeding habitats, except for wetlands, and there was no consistent variation in trends associated with wintering regions or habitats or diet.

Conclusions More information is urgently needed on diet, feeding ecology, habitat requirements, winter distribution and intra-African movements of the commoner European summer visitors to identify causes of the declines and highlight when in the annual cycle detrimental effects occur. Studies linking individuals on their breeding, staging and wintering grounds are especially needed. Danish trends resemble those from elsewhere in Europe, confirming that restoration to favourable conservation status requires inter-continental action to meet European and global targets to reduce or halt biodiversity loss.     

The effect of human population size on the breeding bird diversity of urban regions

Most studies of the effects of urbanization on avian diversity are carried out in a single urban area. However, urban areas vary in characteristics, such as human population size and biophysical context, that likely influence within-urban area ecological structure and functioning. In this paper, we describe the first direct test of the effect of urban area human population size on bird diversity. We applied simultaneous autoregressive modeling and multi-model inference to North American Breeding Bird Survey and US Census data from 48 urban areas in the conterminous United States to determine the effect of urban area human population size on total breeding bird species richness and abundance in surrounding urban regions, controlling for variation in elevation, air temperature, precipitation, urban area age, human population density, and original habitat type. We hypothesized that increasing urban area human population size is a driver of increasing regional habitat loss and fragmentation and disturbance and therefore would have a negative effect on breeding bird species richness and abundance in regions. We found strong evidence for a negative effect of urban area human population size on species richness and show that urban area human population size is positively correlated with impervious surface cover and air pollutant emissions in urban regions, lending provisional support to our hypothesis. Our results imply that we prioritize urban regions surrounding urban areas with large human population sizes for conservation activities that will benefit birds, such as preserving green spaces. In future, greater emphasis should be placed on the acquisition of high-quality ecological data in multiple urban areas in order to increase our understanding of the structure and functioning of complex urban systems, a frontier in urban ecology.     

A metapopulation approach to the analysis of long‐term changes in the epiphyte vegetation on the host tree Annona glabra

Question: Do vascular epiphyte species have a metapopulation structure? What are the qualitative and quantitative long‐term changes of the complete vascular epiphyte vegetation in a particular host tree species? Location: Lowland forest on Barro Colorado Island (9° 10’ N, 79°51’ W), Republic of Panama. Methods: In 1994 and 2002 we conducted a census of all vascular epiphytes growing on more than 1000 Annona glabra trees (= patches). Epiphyte species abundances were recorded at the tree level in each census. Results: The number of epiphyte individuals increased from ca. 15 000 to ca. 23 700 individuals during the census interval while the species composition on Annona glabra as a whole was rather stable. There was a strong positive relationship between occurrence in patches and local abundance of the species, and between species richness and host tree stand size. The dynamics of local populations of a given species were uncorrelated to each other; small and large local populations of most species had the same probability to go extinct. The frequency distribution of species on all host trees was not bimodal, but on a subset of heavily colonized host tree stands it was. Numbers of species and individuals were correlated with tree size which was not due to a correlation of tree size and tree age. Conclusions: As far as the most abundant epiphyte species with metapopulation structures are concerned, these species belong to diverse families, e. g. Orchidaceae, Bromeliaceae and Polypodiaceae. Even ca. 80 years after the initial establishment of the host tree species in the study area epiphytes are still in the stage of initial colonization and have not reached a steady state as indicated by the strong increase in individuals and the ongoing colonization of empty trees.     

Population change of Common Buzzards Buteo buteo in central southern England between 2011 and 2016

ABSTRACT

Capsule: Distance sampling identified an increase in estimated population size of Common Buzzards Buteo buteo in central southern England between 2011 and 2016 of more than 50%. The rate of population growth slowed in later years.

Aims: To assess the utility of a targeted distance sampling protocol to derive seasonal and annual population estimates for Common Buzzards across an area of southern England.

Methods: We used a line transect survey methodology and multiple covariate distance sampling to assess population density and abundance of Common Buzzards in spring and autumn between 2011 and 2016 across a 2600?km² area of central southern England.

Results: Estimated population size increased by more than 50%, from approximately 2900 to 4500 individuals, across the period in a trend similar to that shown by Breeding Bird Survey data.

Discussion: A slowing of the growth in population size of Common Buzzards in central southern England suggests that the species may be approaching carrying capacity in this area. These results also suggest that currently employed broad scale survey methodologies adequately reflect the general population trends for this species. Our data provide the first published estimates of the Common Buzzard population in central southern England derived from direct empirical assessment.     

Temporal trends in genetic data and effective population size support efficacy of management practices in critically endangered dusky gopher frogs (Lithobates sevosus)

Monitoring temporal changes in population genetic diversity and effective population size can provide vital information on future viability. The dusky gopher frog, Lithobates sevosus, is a critically endangered species found only in coastal Mississippi, with low genetic variability as a consequence of isolation and population size reduction. Conservation management practices have been implemented, but their efficacy has not been addressed. We genotyped individuals collected 1997–2014 to determine temporal trends in population genetic variation, structure, and effective size. Observed and expected heterozygosity and allelic richness revealed temporally stable, but low, levels of genetic variation. Positive levels of inbreeding were found in each year. There was weak genetic structure among years, which can be attributed to increased effects of genetic drift and inbreeding in small populations. L. sevosus exhibited an increase in effective population size, and currently has an estimated effective size of 33.0–58.6 individuals, which is approximately half the census size. This large ratio could possibly be explained by genetic compensation. We found that management practices have been effective at maintaining and improving effective size and genetic diversity, but that additional strategies need to be implemented to enhance viability of the species.     

Volatility in the effective size of a freshwater gastropod population

Despite the utility of gastropod models for the study of evolutionary processes of great generality and importance, their effective population size has rarely been estimated in the field. Here, we report allele frequency variance at three allozyme‐encoding loci monitored over 7 years in a population of the invasive freshwater pulmonate snail Physa acuta (Draparnaud 1805), estimating effective population size with both single‐sample and two‐sample approaches. Estimated N_e declined from effectively infinite in 2009 to approximately 40–50 in 2012 and then rose back to infinity in 2015, corresponding to a striking fluctuation in the apparent census size of the population. Such volatility in N_e may reflect cryptic population subdivision.     

Distribution and population size of the threatened East Coast Akalat in Arabuko-Sokoke Forest,Kenya

Matiku, P.M., Bennun, L.A. & Nemeth, E. 2000. Distribution and population size of the threatened East Coast Akalat in Arabuko-Sokoke Forest, Kenya. Ostrich 71 (1 & 2): 282–285.

The East Coast Akalat Sheppardia gunningi sokokensis is one of six globally threatened bird species that occur in the Arabuko-Sokoke Forest, the largest remnant of forest on the East African coast. The akalat has been little studied but appears to have a patchy distribution both between and within forests. From October 1995 to February 1996 we studied the akalat's status in Arabuko-Sokoke, carrying out transect counts and plot-based surveys to determine its distribution and population size. Playback of calls was used to stimulate the bird to reveal its presence. The akalat was present in two of the forest's main vegetation types, Cynometm woodland and Mixed forest. It was absent from the more open Brachystegia woodland, and from low-canopied intermediate Cynometra and Cynometra thicket. In Cynometra woodland, the akalats were evenly distributed at high densities (estimated at 87 pairs/km²). Within the Mixed forest distribution was patchy, and the akalats were absent from areas with high human disturbance. Where the species did occur, densities were lower (estimated at 12 pairs/km²) than in the Cynometra woodland. Arabuko-Sokoke may hold up to 9 000 pairs of this species, perhaps the largest single population in the world. Most of these are in the Cynometra woodland, which is also of crucial conservation importance for the threatened Sokoke Scops Owl Otus ireneae.     

Low effective population size and survivorship in a grassland grouse

Assessments of census size (N _c) and effective population size (N _e) are necessary for the conservation of species exhibiting population declines. We examined two populations (Oklahoma and New Mexico) of the lesser prairie-chicken (Tympanuchus pallidicinctus), a declining lek-breeding bird, in which one population (Oklahoma) has larger clutch size and more nesting attempts per year but lower survival caused by human changes to the landscape. We estimated demographic and genetic estimates of N _e for each population and found that both populations have low N _e estimates with a risk of inbreeding depression. Although Oklahoma females produce a larger number of offspring, the proportion of females successfully reproducing is not higher than in New Mexico. Higher reproductive effort has likely reached a physiological limit in Oklahoma prairie-chickens but has not led to a higher N _e or even a larger N _c than New Mexico. We propose that future conservation efforts focus on maximizing survivorship and decreasing the variance in reproductive success because these factors are more likely than increasing reproductive output alone to yield population persistence in lek-breeding species.     

Using tree population size structures to assess the impacts of cattle grazing and eucalypts plantations in subtropical South America

To evaluate the effects of distinct management of the matrix in which forest fragments are found upon plant populations thriving in forest remnants in south Brazil, we assessed the conservation status of populations of four woody species (Campomanesia rhombea, Diospyros incontans, Myrciaria cuspidata and Sebastiania commersoniana) through analyses of size structure. Analyzes were carried out at two scales. At a local scale, we consider populations in fragments surrounded by pastures or eucalypts forest plantations, and at a regional scale we also consider larger forest tracts taken as reference areas (Rio Grande do Sul Forest Inventory databank). Population size structures were summarized using the symmetry of height distributions. Small individual size classes prevailed at the local scale in fragments surrounded by eucalypts plantations, whereas in areas exposed to cattle ranching, populations of the same species consistently lack small individuals. At the regional scale, populations in fragments surrounded by pastures presented greater skewness (prevalence of small plants) than populations in reference areas, while populations surrounded by eucalypts plantations presented intermediate skewness. These results reinforce the notion that plantations have a higher conservation value for forest ecosystems than other commercial land uses, like cattle ranching.