Leprosy among patient contacts: a multilevel study of risk factors

Background

This study aimed to evaluate the risk factors associated with developing leprosy among the contacts of newly-diagnosed leprosy patients.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A total of 6,158 contacts and 1,201 leprosy patients of the cohort who were diagnosed and treated at the Leprosy Laboratory of Fiocruz from 1987 to 2007 were included. The contact variables analyzed were sex; age; educational and income levels; blood relationship, if any, to the index case; household or non-household relationship; length of time of close association with the index case; receipt of bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BGG) vaccine and presence of BCG scar. Index cases variables included sex, age, educational level, family size, bacillary load, and disability grade. Multilevel logistic regression with random intercept was applied. Among the co-prevalent cases, the leprosy-related variables that remained associated with leprosy included type of household contact, [odds ratio (OR) = 1.33, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.73] and consanguinity with the index case, (OR = 1.89, 95% CI: 1.42–2.51). With respect to the index case variables, the factors associated with leprosy among contacts included up to 4 years of schooling and 4 to 10 years of schooling (OR = 2.72, 95% CI: 1.54–4.79 and 2.40, 95% CI: 1.30–4.42, respectively) and bacillary load, which increased the chance of leprosy among multibacillary contacts for those with a bacillary index of one to three and greater than three (OR = 1.79, 95% CI: 1.19–2.17 and OR: 4.07–95% CI: 2.73, 6.09), respectively. Among incident cases, household exposure was associated with leprosy (OR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.29–2.98), compared with non-household exposure. Among the index case risk factors, an elevated bacillary load was the only variable associated with leprosy in the contacts.

Conclusions/Significance

Biological and social factors appear to be associated with leprosy among co-prevalent cases, whereas the factors related to the infectious load and proximity with the index case were associated with leprosy that appeared in the incident cases during follow-up.     

Molecular study of the T cell repertoire in family contacts and patients with leprosy

The specificity of lymphocyte proliferative responses of 22 family contacts and 7 patients with leprosy were analyzed using Ag fractions from soluble extracts of Mycobacterium leprae and Mycobacterium tuberculosis. Fractions 10-100 kDa m.w. from each extract were separated by SDS-polyacrylamide gel electrophoresis, electroblotted to nitrocellulose membrane and solubilized for use in lymphocyte culture. The main immunogenic fractions for both contacts and patients had m.w. of 12,000 to 22,000, 35,000 to 40,000, and 65,000. Determinants which were either distinct or shared by the two extracts were active in each of the immunogenic fractions. Lymphocyte proliferation following stimulation with separated Ag was found also in five subjects who failed to respond to the whole soluble extracts. Stimulatory synthetic peptides were identified for the 65 kDa protein Ag. This technique has permitted the screening of the T cell immune repertoire for the identification of the immunodominant Ag which merit further purification and molecular characterization.     

Impact of surgery for stress incontinence on morbidity: cohort study.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the impact of surgery for stress incontinence on the severity of symptoms, other mental and physical symptoms, and overall health. To describe the incidence of postoperative complications. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study; questionnaires completed by patients before and 3, 6, and 12 months after surgery. Questionnaires completed by surgeons both before and after surgery. SETTING: 18 hospitals in the North Thames region. SUBJECTS: 442 women treated surgically for stress incontinence between January 1993 and June 1994. 367 women returned the 3 month questionnaire; 364 returned the 6 month questionnaire; and 359 returned the 12 month questionnaire. 49 surgeons provided perioperative information on 285 of the 442 women and postoperative information on 278. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Stress incontinence symptom severity index, other urinary symptoms, bowel function, mental health, complications, global measures. RESULTS: Most women (288; 87%) reported an improvement in the severity of their stress incontinence, though only 92 (28%) were cured (continent). These improvements persisted for at least 12 months. The likelihood of improvement was similar regardless of whether urodynamic pressure studies had been conducted before surgery. Following surgery, women were less likely to suffer from urinary frequency, nocturia, postvoid fullness, dysuria, and urgency. While mental health improved for 194 (71%), a quarter of women reported deterioration. Only 37 (10%) were satisfied with postoperative pain control. A third experienced one or more complications while in hospital, most commonly difficulty urinating. This problem affected 1 in 11 women after discharge. A year after surgery two thirds of women reported feeling better (251; 72%), that the outcome met or exceeded their expectations (230; 66%), and that they would recommend the operation to a friend in a similar situation (239; 68%), and that they would recommend the operation to a friend in a similar situation (239; 68%). Surgeons tended to be more optimistic about the effects of surgery; they were satisfied with the outcome in 176 (85%) cases and would again treat 245 (94%) of the women as they had done previously. CONCLUSIONS: Although surgery reduces the severity of stress incontinence it is not as effective as current textbooks suggest. Women considering surgery should be provided with more accurate information on the likelihood of an improvement in symptoms and the occurrence of complications, including postoperative pain. Urgency and urge incontinence should not be considered contraindications to surgery. The need for urodynamic assessment before surgery should be reappraised.     

Impact of vaccination and birth rate on the epidemiology of pertussis: a comparative study in 64 countries

Bordetella pertussis infection remains an important public health problem worldwide despite decades of routine vaccination. A key indicator of the impact of vaccination programmes is the inter-epidemic period, which is expected to increase with vaccine uptake if there is significant herd immunity. Based on empirical data from 64 countries across the five continents over the past 30–70 years, we document the observed relationship between the average inter-epidemic period, birth rate and vaccine coverage. We then use a mathematical model to explore the range of scenarios for duration of immunity and transmission resulting from repeat infections that are consistent with empirical evidence. Estimates of pertussis periodicity ranged between 2 and 4.6 years, with a strong association with susceptible recruitment rate, defined as birth rate × (1 − vaccine coverage). Periodicity increased by 1.27 years on average after the introduction of national vaccination programmes (95% CI: 1.13, 1.41 years), indicative of increased herd immunity. Mathematical models suggest that the observed patterns of pertussis periodicity are equally consistent with loss of immunity that is not as rapid as currently thought, or with negligible transmission generated by repeat infections. We conclude that both vaccine coverage and birth rate drive pertussis periodicity globally and that vaccination induces strong herd immunity effects. A better understanding of the role of repeat infections in pertussis transmission is critical to refine existing control strategies.     

BCG revaccination does not protect against leprosy in the Brazilian Amazon: a cluster randomised trial

Background

Although BCG has been found to impart protection against leprosy in many populations, the utility of repeat or booster BCG vaccinations is still unclear. When a policy of giving a second BCG dose to school children in Brazil was introduced, a trial was conducted to assess its impact against tuberculosis, and a leprosy component was then undertaken in parallel. Objective: to estimate the protection against leprosy imparted by a second dose of BCG given to schoolchildren.

Methods and Findings

This is a cluster randomised community trial, with 6 years and 8 months of follow-up. Study site: City of Manaus, Amazon region, a leprosy-endemic area in Brazil. Participants: 99,770 school children with neonatal BCG (aged 7–14 years at baseline), of whom 42,662 were in the intervention arm (revaccination). Intervention: BCG given by intradermal injection. Main outcome: Leprosy (all clinical forms). Results: The incidence rate ratio of leprosy in the intervention over the control arm within the follow-up, in schoolchildren with neonatal BCG, controlled for potential confounders and adjusted for clustering, was 0.99 (95% confidence interval: 0.68 to 1.45).

Conclusions/Significance

There was no evidence of protection conferred by the second dose of BCG vaccination in school children against leprosy during the trial follow-up. These results point to a need to consider the effectiveness of the current policy of BCG vaccination of contacts of leprosy cases in Brazilian Amazon region.     

The long-term effect of current and new interventions on the new case detection of leprosy: a modeling study

Background

Although the number of newly detected leprosy cases has decreased globally, a quarter of a million new cases are detected annually and eradication remains far away. Current options for leprosy prevention are contact tracing and BCG vaccination of infants. Future options may include chemoprophylaxis and early diagnosis of subclinical infections. This study compared the predicted trends in leprosy case detection of future intervention strategies.

Methods

Seven leprosy intervention scenarios were investigated with a microsimulation model (SIMCOLEP) to predict future leprosy trends. The baseline scenario consisted of passive case detection, multidrug therapy, contact tracing, and BCG vaccination of infants. The other six scenarios were modifications of the baseline, as follows: no contact tracing; with chemoprophylaxis; with early diagnosis of subclinical infections; replacement of the BCG vaccine with a new tuberculosis vaccine ineffective against Mycobacterium leprae (“no BCG”); no BCG with chemoprophylaxis; and no BCG with early diagnosis.

Findings

Without contact tracing, the model predicted an initial drop in the new case detection rate due to a delay in detecting clinical cases among contacts. Eventually, this scenario would lead to new case detection rates higher than the baseline program. Both chemoprophylaxis and early diagnosis would prevent new cases due to a reduction of the infectious period of subclinical cases by detection and cure of these cases. Also, replacing BCG would increase the new case detection rate of leprosy, but this effect could be offset with either chemoprophylaxis or early diagnosis.

Conclusions

This study showed that the leprosy incidence would be reduced substantially by good BCG vaccine coverage and the combined strategies of contact tracing, early diagnosis, and treatment of infection and/or chemoprophylaxis among household contacts. To effectively interrupt the transmission of M. leprae, it is crucial to continue developing immuno- and chemoprophylaxis strategies and an effective test for diagnosing subclinical infections.     

A longitudinal study of BCG vaccination in early childhood: the development of innate and adaptive immune responses

BCG vaccine drives a strong T helper 1 cellular immunity which is essential for the protection against mycobacteria, however recent studies suggest that BCG vaccination can have non-specific beneficial effects unrelated to tuberculosis. In the present cohort study the development of cytokine profiles following BCG vaccination was investigated. Immune responses to PPD were assessed before vaccination and at ages of 5 months, 1 year, and 2 years, followed by BCG scar measurement at 4 years of age. BCG was shown to induce both Th1 and Th2 type responses against PPD at about 5 months of age after vaccination, and while Th1 response was sustained, Th2 responses declined over time. However, BCG scar size was strongly correlated with Th2 responses to PPD at 5 months of age. Importantly, we observed no clear effects of BCG vaccination on innate immune responses in terms of early IL-10 or TNF-α production whereas some alterations in general adaptive immune responses to PHA were observed.     

Predictors of death among patients who completed tuberculosis treatment: a population-based cohort study

Background

Mortality among patients who complete tuberculosis (TB) treatment is still high among vulnerable populations. The objective of the study was to identify the probability of death and its predictive factors in a cohort of successfully treated TB patients.

Methods

A population-based retrospective longitudinal study was performed in Barcelona, Spain. All patients who successfully completed TB treatment with culture-confirmation and available drug susceptibility testing between 1995–1997 were retrospectively followed-up until December 31, 2005 by the Barcelona TB Control Program. Socio-demographic, clinical, microbiological and treatment variables were examined. Mortality, TB Program and AIDS registries were reviewed. Kaplan-Meier and a Cox regression methods with time-dependent covariates were used for the survival analysis, calculating the hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI).

Results

Among the 762 included patients, the median age was 36 years, 520 (68.2%) were male, 178 (23.4%) HIV-infected, and 208 (27.3%) were alcohol abusers. Of the 134 (17.6%) injecting drug users (IDU), 123 (91.8%) were HIV-infected. A total of 30 (3.9%) recurrences and 173 deaths (22.7%) occurred (mortality rate: 3.4/100 person-years of follow-up). The predictors of death were: age between 41–60 years old (HR: 3.5; CI:2.1–5.7), age greater than 60 years (HR: 14.6; CI:8.9–24), alcohol abuse (HR: 1.7; CI:1.2–2.4) and HIV-infected IDU (HR: 7.9; CI:4.7–13.3).

Conclusions

The mortality rate among TB patients who completed treatment is associated with vulnerable populations such as the elderly, alcohol abusers, and HIV-infected IDU. We therefore need to fight against poverty, and promote and develop interventions and social policies directed towards these populations to improve their survival.     

Impact of Co-Infections and BCG Immunisation on Immune Responses among Household Contacts of Tuberculosis Patients in a Ugandan Cohort

Background

Tuberculosis incidence in resource poor countries remains high. We hypothesized that immune modulating co-infections such as helminths, malaria, and HIV increase susceptibility to latent tuberculosis infection (LTBI), thereby contributing to maintaining the tuberculosis epidemic.

Methods

Adults with sputum-positive tuberculosis (index cases) and their eligible household contacts (HHCs) were recruited to a cohort study between May 2011 and January 2012. HHCs were investigated for helminths, malaria, and HIV at enrolment. HHCs were tested using the QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube (QFN) assay at enrolment and six months later. Overnight whole blood culture supernatants from baseline QFN assays were analyzed for cytokine responses using an 11-plex Luminex assay. Associations between outcomes (LTBI or cytokine responses) and exposures (co-infections and other risk factors) were examined using multivariable logistic and linear regression models.

Results

We enrolled 101 index cases and 291 HHCs. Among HHCs, baseline prevalence of helminths was 9% (25/291), malaria 16% (47/291), HIV 6% (16/291), and LTBI 65% (179/277). Adjusting for other risk factors and household clustering, there was no association between LTBI and any co-infection at baseline or at six months: adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval (CI); p-value) at baseline for any helminth, 1.01 (0.39–2.66; 0.96); hookworm, 2.81 (0.56–14.14; 0.20); malaria, 1.06 (0.48–2.35; 0.87); HIV, 0.74 (0.22–2.47; 0.63). HHCs with LTBI had elevated cytokine responses to tuberculosis antigens but co-infections had little effect on cytokine responses. Exploring other risk factors, Th1 cytokines among LTBI-positive HHCs with BCG scars were greatly reduced compared to those without scars: (adjusted geometric mean ratio) IFNγ 0.20 (0.09–0.42), <0.0001; IL-2 0.34 (0.20–0.59), <0.0001; and TNFα 0.36 (0.16–0.79), 0.01.

Conclusions

We found no evidence that co-infections increase the risk of LTBI, or influence the cytokine response profile among those with LTBI. Prior BCG exposure may reduce Th1 cytokine responses in LTBI.     

HIV spread in the San Francisco cohort: Scaling of the effective logistic rate for seropositivity

A simple scaling (semigroup) property is manifest in the functional form of the effective logistic rate for the increase in the HIV seropositive fraction in the San Francisco (City Clinic) cohort. Witht _i=4.5 years, this scaling property—r→λ^-2r undert→[λt+(λ−1)t _i] for all parameter values λ≧1—encapsulates the effects of relevant biological and sociological changes in the key epidemiological variables during the 8-year seropositive rise period, 1978–1985 inclusive.     

Light exposure among adolescents with delayed sleep phase disorder: a prospective cohort study

The objective of this study was to compare light exposure and sleep parameters between adolescents with delayed sleep phase disorder (DSPD; n=16, 15.3±1.8 yrs) and unaffected controls (n=22, 13.7±2.4 yrs) using a prospective cohort design. Participants wore wrist actigraphs with photosensors for 14 days. Mean hourly lux levels from 20:00 to 05:00 h and 05:00 to 14:00 h were examined, in addition to the 9-h intervals prior to sleep onset and after sleep offset. Sleep parameters were compared separately, and were also included as covariates within models that analyzed associations with specified light intervals. Additional covariates included group and school night status. Adolescent delayed sleep phase subjects received more evening (p< .02, 22:00-02:00 h) and less morning (p .05, 08:00-09:00 h and 10:00-12:00 h) light than controls, but had less pre-sleep exposure with adjustments for the time of sleep onset (p< .03, 5-7 h prior to onset hour). No differences were identified with respect to the sleep offset interval. Increased total sleep time and later sleep offset times were associated with decreased evening (p< .001 and p= .02, respectively) and morning (p= .01 and p< .001, respectively) light exposure, and later sleep onset times were associated with increased evening exposure (p< .001). Increased total sleep time also correlated with increased exposure during the 9 h before sleep onset (p= .01), and a later sleep onset time corresponded with decreased light exposure during the same interval (p< .001). Outcomes persisted regardless of school night status. In conclusion, light exposure interpretation requires adjustments for sleep timing among adolescents with DSPD. Pre- and post-sleep light exposures do not appear to contribute directly to phase delays. Sensitivity to morning light may be reduced among adolescents with DSPD.     

Risk factors for HIV seropositivity among people consulting for HIV antibody testing: a pilot surveillance study in Quebec.

The surveillance of AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome) through case reporting only reflects the epidemiologic features of HIV (human immunodeficiency virus) transmission a few years earlier and not the prevalence of HIV seropositivity. HIV infection is not a notifiable condition in Quebec. We were asked by the ministère de la Santé et des Services sociaux du Québec to perform a pilot project for the surveillance of HIV seropositivity using a network of sentinel physicians. From May 15, 1988, to Sept. 30, 1989, physicians from four collaborating centres collected data on the serologic status, demographic characteristics and risk factors for 4209 patients who underwent HIV antibody testing. Of the 3899 subjects included in the study 7.9% were HIV positive. Through logistic regression analysis the following variables were found to be significantly associated with HIV seropositivity: presence of HIV-related symptoms (prevalence odds ratio [POR] 36.5), origin from an endemic area (POR 9.1), homosexuality or bisexuality (POR 8.4), intravenous drug use (POR 4.2), male sex (POR 2.8), previous HIV antibody testing (POR 2.5) and previous sexually transmitted disease (POR 1.8). Over the study period we found a large increase in HIV seroprevalence among intravenous drug users (4.2% in 1988 to 19.0% in 1989) (p = 0.02). This increase might reflect a recent change in the epidemiologic pattern of HIV transmission in Quebec. Surveillance of HIV seropositivity through a network of sentinel physicians may be a reasonable alternative to mandatory reporting.     

Elderly subjects have a delayed antibody response and prolonged viraemia following yellow fever vaccination: a prospective controlled cohort study

Background

Yellow fever vaccination (YF-17D) can cause serious adverse events (SAEs). The mechanism of these SAEs is poorly understood. Older age has been identified as a risk factor. We tested the hypothesis that the humoral immune response to yellow fever vaccine develops more slowly in elderly than in younger subjects.

Method

We vaccinated young volunteers (18–28 yrs, N = 30) and elderly travelers (60–81 yrs, N = 28) with YF-17D and measured their neutralizing antibody titers and plasma YF-17D RNA copy numbers before vaccination and 3, 5, 10, 14 and 28 days after vaccination.

Results

Ten days after vaccination seroprotection was attained by 77% (23/30) of the young participants and by 50% (14/28) of the elderly participants (p = 0.03). Accordingly, the Geometric Mean Titer of younger participants was higher than the GMT of the elderly participants. At day 10 the difference was +2.9 IU/ml (95% CI 1.8–4.7, p = 0.00004) and at day 14 +1.8 IU/ml (95% CI 1.1–2.9, p = 0.02, using a mixed linear model. Viraemia was more common in the elderly (86%, 24/28) than in the younger participants (60%, 14/30) (p = 0.03) with higher YF-17D RNA copy numbers in the elderly participants.

Conclusions

We found that elderly subjects had a delayed antibody response and higher viraemia levels after yellow fever primovaccination. We postulate that with older age, a weaker immune response to yellow fever vaccine allows the attenuated virus to cause higher viraemia levels which may increase the risk of developing SAEs. This may be one piece in the puzzle of the pathophysiology of YEL-AVD.

Trial Registration

Trialregitser.nl NTR1040     

Impact of non-HIV and HIV risk factors on survival in HIV-infected patients on HAART: a population-based nationwide cohort study

Background

We determined the impact of three factors on mortality in HIV-infected patients who had been on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) for at least one year: (1) insufficient response to (HAART) and presence of AIDS-defining diseases, (2) comorbidity, and (3) drug and alcohol abuse and compared the mortality to that of the general population.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In a Danish nationwide, population-based cohort study, we used population based registries to identify (1) all Danish HIV-infected patients who started HAART in the period 1 January 1998–1 July 2009, and (2) a comparison cohort of individuals matched on date of birth and gender (N = 2,267 and 9,068, respectively). Study inclusion began 1 year after start of HAART. Patients were categorised hierarchically in four groups according to the three risk factors, which were identified before study inclusion. The main outcome measure was probability of survival from age 25 to 65 years. The probability of survival from age 25 to age 65 was substantially lower in HIV patients [0.48 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.42–0.55)] compared to the comparison cohort [0.88 (0.86 to 0.90)]. However, in HIV patients with no risk factors (N = 871) the probability of survival was equivalent to that of the general population [0.86 (95% CI 0.77–0.92)]. In contrast, the probability of survival was 0.58 in patients with HIV risk factors (N = 704), 0.30 in patients with comorbidities (N = 479), and 0.03 in patients with drug or alcohol abuse (N = 313).

Conclusions

The increased risk of death in HIV-infected individuals is mainly attributable to risk factors that can be identified prior to or in the initial period of antiretroviral treatment. Mortality in patients without risk factors on a successful HAART is almost identical to that of the non–HIV-infected population.     

Modelling the effect of a booster vaccination on disease epidemiology

Despite the effectiveness of vaccines in dramatically decreasing the number of new infectious cases and severity of illnesses, imperfect vaccines may not completely prevent infection. This is because the immunity afforded by these vaccines is not complete and may wane with time, leading to resurgence and epidemic outbreaks notwithstanding high levels of primary vaccination. To prevent an endemic spread of disease, and achieve eradication, several countries have introduced booster vaccination programs. The question of whether this strategy could eventually provide the conditions for global eradication is addressed here by developing a seasonally-forced mathematical model. The analysis of the model provides the threshold condition for disease control in terms of four major parameters: coverage of the primary vaccine; efficacy of the vaccine; waning rate; and the rate of booster administration. The results show that if the vaccine provides only temporary immunity, then the infection typically cannot be eradicated by a single vaccination episode. Furthermore, having a booster program does not necessarily guarantee the control of a disease, though the level of epidemicity may be reduced. In addition, these findings strongly suggest that the high coverage of primary vaccination remains crucial to the success of a booster strategy. Simulations using estimated parameters for measles illustrate model predictions. This work was supported in part by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC). One of the authors (P.R.) acknowledges the support of the Ellison Medical Foundation.