Strong paleoclimatic legacies in current plant functional diversity patterns across Europe

Numerous studies indicate that environmental changes during the late Quaternary have elicited long‐term disequilibria between species diversity and environment. Despite its importance for ecosystem functioning, the importance of historical environmental conditions as determinants of FD (functional diversity) remains largely unstudied. We quantified the geographic distributions of plant FD (richness and dispersion) across Europe using distribution and functional trait information for 2702 plant species. We then compared the importance of historical and contemporary factors to determine the relevance of past conditions as predictors of current plant FD in Europe. For this, we compared the strength of the relationships between FD with temperature and precipitation stability since the LGM (Last Glacial Maximum), accessibility to LGM refugia, and contemporary environmental conditions (climate, productivity, soil, topography, and land use). Functional richness and dispersion exhibited geographic patterns with strong associations to the environmental history of the region. The effect size of accessibility to LGM refugia and climate stability since the LGM was comparable to that of the contemporary predictors. Both functional richness and dispersion increased with temperature stability since the LGM and accessibility to LGM refugia. Functional richness' geographic pattern was primarily associated with accessibility to LGM refugia growing degree‐days, land use heterogeneity, diversity of soil types, and absolute minimum winter temperature. Functional dispersion's geographic pattern was primarily associated with accessibility to LGM refugia growing degree‐days and absolute minimum winter temperature. The high explained variance and model support of historical predictors are consistent with the idea that long‐term variability in environmental conditions supplements contemporary factors in shaping FD patterns at continental scales. Given the importance of FD for ecosystem functioning, future climate change may elicit not just short‐term shifts in ecosystem functioning, but also long‐term functional disequilibria.     

Phylogeography of European moose (Alces alces) based on contemporary mtDNA data and archaeological records

Phylogeography can help to determine LGM refugia and postglacial migration routes. However, the locations of LGM refugial areas in eastern Europe are not clear. Moose (Alces alces) is presently a common species in central and north-eastern Europe, but there are no studies showing its phylogenetic pattern and genetic diversity across its whole continuous range. Moose never became extinct in the eastern part of its range, and the eastern mtDNA lineage has the largest effective population size. The present study shows the phylogeographic pattern and genetic diversity of European moose and compares the results of mtDNA analyses with the archaeological record of the species to identify its LGM refugia and postglacial migration routes. I combined the mtDNA control region sequences obtained in all studies of moose in Europe and western Asia. The genetic data were then compared with the archaeological records of the species dated to the LGM. I found that the European moose lineage inhabits Europe and western Asia. It is composed of two clades: the eastern and the central-western, consisting of a total of six discrete haplogroups. The most complex, the eastern clade, has the largest range. Some of the haplogroups have narrow or scattered distributions and two are common in almost the whole range. Genetic diversity hotspots were detected in contact zones of different mtDNA haplogroups rather than in the LGM refugial areas of moose. Archaeological records dated to the LGM were found in several localities in central, southern and eastern Europe as well as in western Asia. The range of the moose during the LGM was much larger than previously thought. The eastern clade survived the LGM in western Siberia, the Ural Mountains and Russian plain. LGM refugia of moose were also located in the Caucasus, Carpathians, Balkans and northern Italy.     

Multiple glacial refugia for cool‐temperate deciduous trees in northern East Asia: the Mongolian oak as a case study

In East Asia, temperate forests are predicted to have retracted southward to c. 30° N during the last glacial maximum (LGM) based on fossil pollen data, whereas phylogeographic studies have often suggested glacial in situ survival of cool‐temperate deciduous trees in their modern northern ranges. Here we report a study of the genetic diversity and structure of 29 natural Mongolian oak (Quercus mongolica) populations using 19 nuclear simple sequence repeat (nSSR) loci and four chloroplast DNA fragments. Bayesian clustering analysis with nSSRs revealed five groups, which were inferred by approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to have diverged in multiple refugia through multiple glacial–interglacial cycles. Analysis of chloroplast DNA variation revealed four lineages that were largely but incompletely geographically disjunct. Ecological niche modelling (ENMs) indicated a southward range shift of the oak's distribution at the LGM, although high suitability scores were also evident in the Changbai Mts. (Northeast China), the Korean Peninsula, areas surrounding the Bohai Sea, and along the coast of the Russian Far East. In addition, endemic chloroplast DNA haplotypes and nuclear lineages occurred in high‐latitude northern areas where the ENM predicted no suitable habitat. The combined evidence from nuclear and chloroplast DNA, and the results of the ENM clearly demonstrate that multiple northern refugia, including cryptic ones, were maintained across the current distributional range of the Mongolian oak during the LGM or earlier glacial periods. Though spatially limited, postglacial expansions from these refugia have led to a pattern of decreased genetic diversity with increasing latitude.     

Northern glacial refugia for the pygmy shrew Sorex minutus in Europe revealed by phylogeographic analyses and species distribution modelling

The southern European peninsulas (Iberian, Italian and Balkan) are traditionally recognized as glacial refugia from where many species colonized central and northern Europe after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). However, evidence that some species had more northerly refugia is accumulating from phylogeographic, palaeontological and palynological studies, and more recently from species distribution modelling (SDM), but further studies are needed to test the idea of northern refugia in Europe. Here, we take a rarely implemented multidisciplinary approach to assess if the pygmy shrew Sorex minutus, a widespread Eurasian mammal species, had northern refugia during the LGM, and if these influenced its postglacial geographic distribution. First, we evaluated the phylogeographic and population expansion patterns using mtDNA sequence data from 123 pygmy shrews. Then, we used SDM to predict present and past (LGM) potential distributions using two different training data sets, two different algorithms (Maxent and GARP) and climate reconstructions for the LGM with two different general circulation models. An LGM distribution in the southern peninsulas was predicted by the SDM approaches, in line with the occurrence of lineages of S. minutus in these areas. The phylogeographic analyses also indicated a widespread and strictly northern‐central European lineage, not derived from southern peninsulas, and with a postglacial population expansion signature. This was consistent with the SDM predictions of suitable LGM conditions for S. minutus occurring across central and eastern Europe, from unglaciated parts of the British Isles to much of the eastern European Plain. Hence, S. minutus likely persisted in parts of central and eastern Europe during the LGM, from where it colonized other northern areas during the late‐glacial and postglacial periods. Our results provide new insights into the glacial and postglacial colonization history of the European mammal fauna, notably supporting glacial refugia further north than traditionally recognized.     

Post-glacial migration of silver fir (Abies alba Mill.) in the south-western Alps

Aim  Previous studies have failed to reconstruct the regional post-glacial migration pattern of Abies alba in southern France. Based on the first exhaustive compilation of palaeoecological data in this region, we present the state-of-the-art and attempt to synthesize the available information concerning glacial refugia and post-glacial migration, and analyse the information with regard to climate and orography.
Location  South-western Alps and adjacent areas, southern France.
Methods  The work compiles the available palaeoecological data in the south-western Alps (52 sites, 290 radiocarbon dates). The post-glacial migration pattern of Abies alba is reconstructed based on 22 selected palynological analyses (11 well-dated reference sites and 11 supplementary ones).
Results  The geographical patterns of approaching area limit, immigration and expansion are reconstructed at the scale of the southern French Alps.
Main conclusions  Despite previous assertions, the evidence of refugia in southern France is non-existent. The late-glacial records of fir pollen, previously interpreted in French Mediterranean regions and on adjacent foot-hills as possibly reflecting regional refugia, most probably correspond to reworking phenomena or long-distance pollen transport. Fir migration, originating in the Apennine refugia and through the south-western extremity of the Alps, was extremely rapid in the southern French Alps, only spanning a few centuries between 10,100 and 9800 cal. yr bp . The subsequent spread of fir populations was controlled by local parameters, such as the aridity of the inner valleys, which resulted in a delayed expansion in comparison to other regions. Abies almost disappeared from the south-western Alps during the Roman era, around 2000 cal. yr bp .     

Late‐glacial recolonization and phylogeography of European red deer (Cervus elaphus L.)

The Pleistocene was an epoch of extreme climatic and environmental changes. How individual species responded to the repeated cycles of warm and cold stages is a major topic of debate. For the European fauna and flora, an expansion–contraction model has been suggested, whereby temperate species were restricted to southern refugia during glacial times and expanded northwards during interglacials, including the present interglacial (Holocene). Here, we test this model on the red deer (Cervus elaphus) a large and highly mobile herbivore, using both modern and ancient mitochondrial DNA from the entire European range of the species over the last c. 40 000 years. Our results indicate that this species was sensitive to the effects of climate change. Prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) haplogroups restricted today to South‐East Europe and Western Asia reached as far west as the UK. During the LGM, red deer was mainly restricted to southern refugia, in Iberia, the Balkans and possibly in Italy and South‐Western Asia. At the end of the LGM, red deer expanded from the Iberian refugium, to Central and Northern Europe, including the UK, Belgium, Scandinavia, Germany, Poland and Belarus. Ancient DNA data cannot rule out refugial survival of red deer in North‐West Europe through the LGM. Had such deer survived, though, they were replaced by deer migrating from Iberia at the end of the glacial. The Balkans served as a separate LGM refugium and were probably connected to Western Asia with genetic exchange between the two areas.     

Environmental changes clarified by pollen and diatom proxy records in the sedimentary archive of the northwestern Japan Sea during last 21.0 kyr

High-temporal resolution pollen and diatom records from the northwestern Japan Sea document environmental changes over the last 21.0 kyr. Vegetation and climate changes were evaluated using the forest-steppe (SFI) and the pollen temperature (T_p) indices. The highest SFI occurred between ca. 21.0 ka and 16.6 ka and indicates the presence of a relatively dry climate and large areas of forest-steppe in the region. Boreal forests covered the mountain slopes. The broad-leaved trees survived in refugia located in lower mountain belts. Beginning ca. 16.6 ka, SFI decreases, while T_p increases, especially between ca. 11.0 ka and 5.7 ka. However, variations in these indices indicate fluctuating climates during the deglaciation. Significant vegetation changes occurred in the Holocene. Mixed deciduous forests with a predominance of Quercus became widely present beginning ca. 9.8 ka. The area of forest-steppe was reduced occurring only in local habitats. Pinus became one of the most common taxa in the forest ca. 5.3 ka. The geographic features of the coring area have determined in the past the persistence throughout the record of cold-water diatom flora. Cold-water diatoms have dominated in both cool and warm intervals; however, a small increase in the percentage and species diversity of warm-water diatoms was noted for warming. Low sea level during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and early Holocene changed the general patterns in the sea circulation and in the vectors of the longshore currents, which transported the waters formed in the shallow areas of the northeastern and northern parts of the Japan Sea. A slight increase in sublittoral benthic diatoms indicates a lowered sea level during the LGM. The increase in sublittoral planktonic diatoms reflects a gradual rise in sea level during the Bølling–Allerød (BA) and Younger Dryas (YD). A greater component of oceanic diatom species at Holocene indicates the inflow of Pacific waters across both the Tsushima and Tsugaru straits. This study of pollen and diatom records demonstrates a clear response to climatic fluctuations and sea level changes in the Japan Sea during the Late Pleistocene and Holocene.     

Glacial refugia of mammals in Europe: evidence from fossil records

• 1 Glacial refugia were core areas for the survival of temperate species during unfavourable environmental conditions and were the sources of postglacial recolonizations. Unfortunately, the locations of glacial refugia of animals and plants are usually described by models, without reference to facts about real geographical ranges at that time.
• 2 Careful consideration of the faunal assemblages of archaeological sites from the Younger Palaeolithic, which are precisely dated to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), gives indications about the distribution of species during the LGM (23 000–16 000 bp ) and provides evidence for the locations of glacial refugia for mammalian species in Europe.
• 3 In Europe, 47 LGM sites, dating from 23 000 to 16 000 bp and containing typical temperate mammal species, have been described. The geographical range of these archaeological sites clearly shows a distribution which differs from the hypothesized traditional refuge areas of the temperate fauna. A considerable number of sites situated in the Dordogne in south‐western France and the Carpathian region contain records of red deer Cervus elaphus, roe deer Capreolus capreolus, wild boar Sus scrofa and red fox Vulpes vulpes.
• 4 The faunal composition of the majority of the evaluated Palaeolithic sites in the southern European peninsulas (with the exception of Greece), as well as France and the Carpathian region, indicates the co‐occurrence of these temperate species with cold‐adapted faunal elements such as mammoth Mammuthus primigenius and/or reindeer Rangifer tarandus.
• 5 The survival of species in Central European refugia would have significant consequences for phylogeography and would be revealed by the dominant distribution of haplotypes, originating from this region. A Carpathian refuge could also be the reason for the very early records of small mammals or mustelids from the Late‐Glacial or Interstadials before the LGM in regions like southern Germany.

     

Postglacial colonization of Europe by the barbastelle bat: agreement between molecular data and past predictive modelling

The barbastelle (Barbastella barbastellus) is a rare forest bat with a wide distribution in Europe. Here, we combine results from the analysis of two mtDNA fragments with species distribution modelling to determine glacial refugia and postglacial colonization routes. We also investigated whether niche conservatism occurs in this species. Glacial refugia were identified in the three southern European peninsulas: Iberia, Italy and the Balkans. These latter two refugia played a major role in the postglacial colonization process, with their populations expanding to England and central Europe, respectively. Palaeo‐distribution models predicted that suitable climatic conditions existed in the inferred refugia during the last glacial maximum (LGM). Nevertheless, the overlap between the current and the LGM distributions was almost inexistent in Italy and in the Balkans, meaning that B. barbastellus populations were forced to shift range between glacial and interglacial periods, a process that probably caused some local extinctions. In contrast, Iberian populations showed a ‘refugia within refugium’ pattern, with two unconnected areas containing stable populations (populations that subsisted during both glacial and interglacial phases). Moreover, the match between LGM models and the refugial areas determined by molecular analysis supported the hypothesis of niche conservatism in B. barbastellus. We argue that geographic patterns of genetic structuring, altogether with the modelling results, indicate the existence of four management units for conservation: Morocco, Iberia, Italy and UK, and Balkans and central Europe. In addition, all countries sampled possessed unique gene pools, thus stressing the need for the conservation of local populations.     

Distribution of the Eastern knapweed fritillary (Melitaea ornata Christoph, 1893) (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae): past, present and future

Climatic change during the Quaternary resulted in periodical range restrictions and expansions in most temperate species. Although some repetitive patterns have been supported, it became obvious that species’ responses might be rather specific and may also depend on habitat preferences of the species in question. Distribution of Melitaea ornata, a little known fritillary species is analysed on different time scales using MaxEnt software. Using the results of genitalia morphometry and the predicted potential refugia during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), we reconstructed probable re-colonisation routes. We also predicted changes in the potential area for 2080. The present distribution fits well the known occurrence data except for the Iberian Peninsula and North-Africa where the species is missing. Based on our predictions, temperate areas seem to be less suitable for the species. We proposed two hypotheses to explain this pattern: a less probable recent extinction from Iberia and a more supported historical explanation. Predicted distribution during the LGM mainly fits to widely accepted refugia. Europe was probably re-colonised from two main sources, from the Apennine peninsula and from the Balkans which was probably connected to the Anatolian refugia. Populations of the Levant region and in the Elburs Mts. do not show any significant expansion. Further studies are necessary in the case of the predicted Central Asian refugia. Predictions for 2080 show a northward shift and some extinction events in the Mediterranean region. Core areas are identified which might have a potential for expansion including southern Russia, Hungary and possibly Provence in France. Predicted northward area shifts are only possible if the potential leading edge populations and habitats of the species can be preserved.     

Southern Iberia as a refuge for the last Neanderthal populations

Aim This paper evaluates the role of southern Iberia as a glacial refugium for Neanderthal populations during the late Pleistocene. Location  Southern Iberia. Methods A new methodology employing biogeographical principles was developed to determine the nature and extent of refugial environments in southern Iberia. Two climate maps drawing on present‐day temperature and rainfall measurements from 338 weather stations across the study area were constructed. The maps were then subjected to incremental falls in temperature and rainfall, and redrawn accordingly within a geographical information system (GIS) framework. The resulting cool and dry models were then combined to replicate climate conditions in southern Iberia during the last glacial period. Results The results indicated that not one but four different types of refugial environment were present: warm/wet, cool/dry, warm/dry and cool/wet. A dataset of 164 Middle Palaeolithic sites was examined with respect to these environments and shown by a chi‐square test to be unevenly distributed. The overwhelming majority of sites fell within the warm/wet and cool/wet refugial environments, which shared the common characteristic of high rainfall levels. Within both these environments, it was possible to identify more specific refugia. An upland refugium was identified in the Betic Mountains in Córdoba/Jaén provinces, and a resource‐rich major refugium was located on the southerly and westerly foothills of the Cádiz–Málaga sierras in an area that included the Guadalete River, two coastlines and the Rock of Gibraltar. The modelling procedure is supported by the identification within the major refugium of Gorham’s Cave in Gibraltar; archaeological evidence suggests that the cave was home to the last Neanderthals of Europe, who disappeared around 28,000 years ago. Main conclusions The persistence of good rainfall levels was a significant factor in the late survival of Neanderthal populations in southern Iberia. The potential application of the proposed climatic modelling technique to palaeobiogeography, historical biogeography and macroecology, in addition to palaeoanthropology, is considerable.     

Genetic structure and colonization processes in European populations of the common vole, Microtus arvalis

The level of genetic differentiation within and between evolutionary lineages of the common vole (Microtus arvalis) in Europe was examined by analyzing mitochondrial sequences from the control region (mtDNA) and 12 nuclear microsatellite loci (nucDNA) for 338 voles from 18 populations. The distribution of evolutionary lineages and the affinity of populations to lineages were determined with additional sequence data from the mitochondrial cytochrome b gene. Our analyses demonstrated very high levels of differentiation between populations (overall FST: mtDNA 70%; nucDNA 17%). The affinity of populations to evolutionary lineages was strongly reflected in mtDNA but not in nucDNA variation. Patterns of genetic structure for both markers visualized in synthetic genetic maps suggest a postglacial range expansion of the species into the Alps, as well as a potentially more ancient colonization from the northeast to the southwest of Europe. This expansion is supported by estimates for the divergence times between evolutionary lineages and within the western European lineage, which predate the last glacial maximum (LGM). Furthermore, all measures of genetic diversity within populations increased significantly with longitude and showed a trend toward increase with latitude. We conclude that the detected patterns are difficult to explain only by range expansions from separate LGM refugia close to the Mediterranean. This suggests that some M. arvalis populations persisted during the LGM in suitable habitat further north and that the gradients in genetic diversity may represent traces of a more ancient colonization of Europe by the species.     

Identification of winter moth (Operophtera brumata) refugia in North Africa and the Italian Peninsula during the last glacial maximum

Numerous studies have shown that the genetic diversity of species inhabiting temperate regions has been shaped by changes in their distributions during the Quaternary climatic oscillations. For some species, the genetic distinctness of isolated populations is maintained during secondary contact, while for others, admixture is frequently observed. For the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), an important defoliator of oak forests across Europe and northern Africa, we previously determined that contemporary populations correspond to genetic diversity obtained during the last glacial maximum (LGM) through the use of refugia in the Iberian and Aegean peninsulas, and to a lesser extent the Caucasus region. Missing from this sampling were populations from the Italian peninsula and from North Africa, both regions known to have played important roles as glacial refugia for other species. Therefore, we genotyped field‐collected winter moth individuals from southern Italy and northwestern Tunisia—the latter a region where severe oak forest defoliation by winter moth has recently been reported—using polymorphic microsatellite. We reconstructed the genetic relationships of these populations in comparison to moths previously sampled from the Iberian and Aegean peninsulas, the Caucasus region, and western Europe using genetic distance, Bayesian clustering, and approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods. Our results indicate that both the southern Italian and the Tunisian populations are genetically distinct from other sampled populations, and likely originated in their respective refugium during the LGM after diverging from a population that eventually settled in the Iberian refugium. These suggest that winter moth populations persisted in at least five Mediterranean LGM refugia. Finally, we comment that outbreaks by winter moth in northwestern Tunisia are not the result of a recent introduction of a nonnative species, but rather are most likely due to land use or environmental changes.     

Molecular and palaeoecological evidence for multiple glacial refugia for evergreen oaks on the Iberian Peninsula

Aim  A multiple glacial refugia hypothesis for Mediterranean plant species was tested with the evergreen Quercus complex ( Quercus suber L., Quercus ilex L. and Quercus coccifera L.) from the Iberian Peninsula, using molecular and palaeobotanical data.
Location  The Iberian Peninsula, which is an ecologically and physiographically complex area located on the western edge of the Mediterranean Basin.
Methods  We sampled 1522 individuals from 164 populations of Q. suber , Q. ilex and Q. coccifera . A review of the recent literature on fossil pollen and charcoal records and a nested clade analysis on chloroplast DNA polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism was carried out to infer demographic and historical processes.
Results  The analysis indicates at least one glacial refugium for Q. suber in south-western Iberia. Extensive introgression of Q. suber with Q. ilex indicates several potential refugia in eastern Iberia. Past fragmentation was followed by a restricted range flow/range expansion, suggesting multiple refugia for Q. ilex–Q. coccifera elsewhere in central and northern Iberia and multiple areas of secondary contact. This finding is consistent with fossil records.
Main conclusions  The predicted multiple refugia during glacial periods indicates the existence of secondary post-glaciation contact areas. These areas contained complex diversity patterns resulting mainly from range expansions followed by isolation by distance. To a lesser degree, traces of restricted and long-distance dispersal were also found.     

Investigating past range dynamics for a weed of cultivation,Silene vulgaris

Since the last glacial maximum (LGM), many plant and animal taxa have expanded their ranges by migration from glacial refugia. Weeds of cultivation may have followed this trend or spread globally following the expansion of agriculture or ruderal habitats associated with human‐mediated disturbance. We tested whether the range expansion of the weed Silene vulgaris across Europe fit the classical model of postglacial expansion from southern refugia, or followed known routes of the expansion of human agricultural practices. We used species distribution modeling to predict spatial patterns of postglacial expansion and contrasted these with the patterns of human agricultural expansion. A population genetic analysis using microsatellite loci was then used to test which scenario was better supported by spatial patterns of genetic diversity and structure. Genetic diversity was highest in southern Europe and declined with increasing latitude. Locations of ancestral demes from genetic cluster analysis were consistent with areas of predicted refugia. Species distribution models showed the most suitable habitat in the LGM on the southern coasts of Europe. These results support the typical postglacial northward colonization from southern refugia while refuting the east‐to‐west agricultural spread as the main mode of expansion for S. vulgaris. We know that S. vulgaris has recently colonized many regions (including North America and other continents) through human‐mediated dispersal, but there is no evidence for a direct link between the Neolithic expansion of agriculture and current patterns of genetic diversity of S. vulgaris in Europe. Therefore, the history of range expansion of S. vulgaris likely began with postglacial expansion after the LGM, followed by more recent global dispersal by humans.     

Migration and isolation during the turbulent Ponto‐Caspian Pleistocene create high diversity in the crustacean Paramysis lacustris

The Ponto‐Caspian brackish‐water fauna inhabits estuaries and rivers of the Black, Azov and Caspian seas and is fragmented by higher salinity waters and a major interbasin watershed. The fauna is known for the high levels of endemism, complex zoogeographic histories, and as a recent source of successful invasive species. It remains debated whether the Black and Azov Sea brackish‐water populations survived unfavourable Pleistocene conditions in multiple separate refugia or whether the two seas were (repeatedly) recolonized from the Caspian. Using microsatellite and mtDNA markers, we demonstrate deep among‐ and within‐basin subdivisions in a widespread Ponto‐Caspian mysid crustacean Paramysis lacustris. Five genetic clusters were identified, but their relationships did not reflect the geography of the region. The Azov cluster was the most distinct (4–5% COI divergence), despite its geographic position in the corridor between Black and Caspian seas, and may represent a new species. In the northern Black Sea area, the Dnieper cluster was closer to the Caspian cluster than to the neighbouring Danube–Dniester–Bug populations, suggesting separate colonizations of the Black Sea. Overall, the data implied a predominant gene flow from the east to the Black Sea and highlight the importance of Caspian Sea transgressions in facilitating dispersal. Yet, the presence of distinct lineages in the Black Sea points to the persistence of isolated refugial populations that have gained diagnostic differences under presumably high mutation rates and large population sizes. The unfavourable Pleistocene periods in the Black Sea therefore appear to have promoted diversification of the brackish‐water lineages, rather than extirpated them.     

Palaeoclimatic models help to understand current distribution of Caucasian forest species

Spatial and temporal constraints on dispersal explain the absence of species from areas with potentially suitable conditions. Previous studies have shown that post‐glacial recolonization has shaped the current ranges of many species, yet it is not completely clear to what extent interspecific differences in range size depend on different dispersal rates. The inferred boundaries of glacial refugia are difficult to validate, and may bias spatial distribution models (SDMs) that consider post‐glacial dispersal constraints. We predicted the current distribution of 12 Caucasian forest plants and animals, factoring in the effective geographical distance from inferred glacial refugia as an additional predictor. To infer glacial refugia, we tested the transferability of the current SDMs based on the distribution of climatic variables, and projected the most transferable ones onto two climate scenarios simulated for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). We then calculated least‐cost distances from the inferred refugia, using elevation as a friction surface, and recalculated the current SDMs incorporating the distances as an additional variable. We compared the predictive powers of the initial with the final SDMs. The palaeoclimatic simulation that best matched the distribution of species was assumed to represent the closest fit to the true palaeoclimate. SDMs incorporating refugial distance performed significantly better for all but one studied species, and the Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate (MIROC) climatic simulation provided a more convincing pattern of the LGM climate than the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) simulation. Our results suggest that the projection of suitable habitat models onto past climatic conditions may yield realistic boundaries of glacial refugia, and that the current distribution of forest species in the study region is strongly associated with locations of former refugia. We inferred six major forest refugia throughout western Asia: (1) Colchis; (2) western Anatolia; (3) western Taurus; (4) the upper reaches of the Tigris River; (5) the Levant; and (6) the southern Caspian basin. The boundaries of the modelled refugia were substantially broader than the refugia boundaries inferred solely from pollen records. Thus, our method could be used to: (1) improve models of current species distributions by considering the dispersal histories of the species; and (2) validate alternative reconstructions of palaeoclimate with current distribution data. © 2011 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2012, 105 , 231–248.     

A Quaternary perspective on the conservation prospects of the Tertiary relict tree Prunus lusitanica L.

Aim  To assess the importance of climate and human pressure as factors limiting the past, present and future distribution of Prunus lusitanica L. (the Portuguese laurel), a relict of Europe's ancient subtropical laurel-forest flora.
Location  The Iberian Peninsula.
Methods  A census was taken of the current populations of P. lusitanica in the Iberian Peninsula and the threats they face. The potential distribution of the species was modelled under current climatic conditions and under simulations of the climate for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene and the year 2080.
Results  The present total population of 31,000 individuals is largely distributed as small, fragmented subpopulations, often threatened by agriculture or forestry. The species' current range is much smaller than its potentially suitable range. During the LGM, P. lusitanica would have been constrained to a limited number of sites along the Atlantic coast. In the mid-Holocene, its potential range was much wider than during the LGM and similar to that of the present day. Under the 2080 climate scenario its potential range is reduced by almost 40% compared to that of the present. This reduction includes the loss of territories currently home to three-quarters of its Iberian population.
Main conclusions  Drastic climatic changes and the existence of refugia are usually invoked to explain the rarity and fragmented distribution – yet persistence – of a subtropical flora in southern Europe. The availability of climatically suitable habitats is, however, not necessarily the main factor limiting its distribution. Human impact would appear to have been – and continues to be – of fundamental importance in the current population sizes and potential range of P. lusitanica in the Iberian Peninsula.     

Effect of prey quantity and temperature on nest demography of social wasps

Abstract. 1. To determine the effect of prey quantity and temperature on nest demography of social wasps ( Polistes fuscatus ), field experiments were conducted, in which wasps were provided with a low quantity of caterpillars (approximately nest subsistence level) or high quantity (three times as much). In addition, in the third year, the nest boxes were modified to be relatively cool (white and insulated) or warm (black).
2. In 1997 and 1998, high-food nests had a high proportion of cells containing developing offspring, produced more offspring, and had disproportionately more female offspring compared with low-food nests.
3. In 1999, the cool and warm nest boxes exhibited a daily average difference of 1.3 °C and a maximum difference of 6.9 °C. The warm high-food nests produced more offspring than any other treatment. The cool high-food nests produced similar numbers of offspring as the cool low-food and warm low-food treatments.
4. As indicated by a surplus of uncapped cells, foundresses of low-food nests, which would have had the egg-laying potential to produce many offspring, apparently sacrificed eggs to provide a food supplement for the developing offspring. This pattern plus more time observed foraging suggests considerable expenditure of energy by foundresses, in response to the low supply of food.
5. Importantly, these results indicate that an interactive effect of prey quantity and temperature on offspring production occurred, which may reflect the different effects on developmental rate and growth rate at cool versus warm nest temperatures.     

Invasion phylogeography of the Ponto-Caspian crustacean Limnomysis benedeni dispersing across Europe

Aim  Limnomysis benedeni Czerniavsky, 1882 is a mysid crustacean native to the Ponto-Caspian (Black and Caspian Sea) rivers and estuaries, and has recently spread across Europe through intentional and unintentional introductions. We explored the structuring of genetic variation in native and non-native populations with an aim to trace the sources of the invasions, and to infer whether the spread has occurred through a single or multiple invasion waves.
Location  Native estuaries in the Ponto-Caspian basin (Volga, Don, Dnieper, Dniester, Danube) and the recently colonized range along the Danube–Rhine river systems and Lithuania.
Methods  A fragment of the mitochondrial COI gene was sequenced to assess genetic affinities and diversity in native and recently established populations.
Results  The genetic diversity in the native regions is organized into several strongly diverged haplotype groups or lineages, partly allopatric, partly sympatric. All these lineages have also spread beyond the native range. Even the recent rapid dispersal across Europe along the Danube–Rhine system towards the North Sea basin involved several lineages from the Danube delta sector. The structuring of genetic diversity among invaded sites suggests multiple invasion events to the Danube–Rhine drainage. This contrasts with data from some other Ponto-Caspian species, where a single haplotype seems to have occupied most invaded areas. There is no evidence that intentionally stocked reservoirs in the Baltic Sea basin would have contributed to further unintentional spread of L. benedeni.
Main conclusions  Limnomysis benedeni is spreading across Europe using the southern invasion corridor. The invasion most likely involved several waves from differentiated sources in the native Danube delta area.