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1.
J C Barrett 《Journal of biosocial science》1986,18(3):357-370
This study is based on questionnare data from cohorts of women in England and Wales married once only in the 1950s and 1960s. It uses estimates of preferred family sizes derived from those achieved at various durations of marriage, using a Monte Carlo simulation model of reproductive histories, slightly modified in its representation of breastfeeding. The method of estimation consists in inverting the relationship between these 2 distributions (wanted and achieved births) which form respectively an input to and an output of the model. The model is explained in detail. The increasing preference for families of 2 children is shown in cohorts married in 1951, 1956, 1961, 1966, and 1971 for women's ages at marriage 20-24 and 25-29. The trend is paralleled in the findings of World Fertility Surveys of 11 countries plus the US. Sensitivity to assumptions regarding contraceptive effectiveness is tested, and ranges established for estimates. The 2-child trend is discussed in light of theories relating individual and societal consciousness that 2 children are optimum from the points of view of family and societal welfare. On the family level the 2-child family has implications even over generations, with regard to family support needed for very young or old populations. 相似文献
2.
The phenomenal success public health officials enjoyed in controlling tuberculosis (TB) in developed countries has not been mirrored in developing countries, where TB still accounts for 25% of preventable deaths in adults. The fact that there are 8 million new cases each year (95% in developing countries) and 3 million deaths (98% in developing countries) led to the 1993 declaration by the World Health Organization (WHO) that TB poses a global emergency. Because TB is predominantly a disease of impoverished people, indifference has led to the fallacious and naive view that eradication of TB simply requires socioeconomic development. In response to this indifference, the WHO is promoting a "Stop TB--Use DOTS" campaign. DOTS, a strategy based on directly observed therapy, also requires government commitment, a regular supply of drugs, effective diagnoses, and an audit of the efficacy of the strategy. While the treatment of TB is among the most cost-effective of all medical interventions in terms of years of healthy life saved, the DOTS campaign requires a considerable dedication of funds. Renewed interest in TB is leading the US and the UK to increase support for control programs. In addition, a new UK-based charity, "TB Alert," hopes to play a major role in advocating for political commitment to and funding for TB control. 相似文献
3.
Cheryl Chriss Sawyer 《PLoS medicine》2012,9(8)
Introduction
Producing estimates of infant (under age 1 y), child (age 1–4 y), and under-five (under age 5 y) mortality rates disaggregated by sex is complicated by problems with data quality and availability. Interpretation of sex differences requires nuanced analysis: girls have a biological advantage against many causes of death that may be eroded if they are disadvantaged in access to resources. Earlier studies found that girls in some regions were not experiencing the survival advantage expected at given levels of mortality. In this paper I generate new estimates of sex differences for the 1970s to the 2000s.Methods and Findings
Simple fitting methods were applied to male-to-female ratios of infant and under-five mortality rates from vital registration, surveys, and censuses. The sex ratio estimates were used to disaggregate published series of both-sexes mortality rates that were based on a larger number of sources. In many developing countries, I found that sex ratios of mortality have changed in the same direction as historically occurred in developed countries, but typically had a lower degree of female advantage for a given level of mortality. Regional average sex ratios weighted by numbers of births were found to be highly influenced by China and India, the only countries where both infant mortality and overall under-five mortality were estimated to be higher for girls than for boys in the 2000s. For the less developed regions (comprising Africa, Asia excluding Japan, Latin America/Caribbean, and Oceania excluding Australia and New Zealand), on average, boys'' under-five mortality in the 2000s was about 2% higher than girls''. A number of countries were found to still experience higher mortality for girls than boys in the 1–4-y age group, with concentrations in southern Asia, northern Africa/western Asia, and western Africa. In the more developed regions (comprising Europe, northern America, Japan, Australia, and New Zealand), I found that the sex ratio of infant mortality peaked in the 1970s or 1980s and declined thereafter.Conclusions
The methods developed here pinpoint regions and countries where sex differences in mortality merit closer examination to ensure that both sexes are sharing equally in access to health resources. Further study of the distribution of causes of death in different settings will aid the interpretation of differences in survival for boys and girls. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary. 相似文献4.
R.A.Houghton 《中国科学C辑(英文版)》2002,45(Z1)
Evaluating the annual sources and sinks of carbon from land-use changehelps constrain other terms in the global carbon cycle and may help countries choose how to comply with commitments for reduced emissions. This paper presents the results of recent analyses of land-use change in China and tropical Asia. The original forest areas are estimated to have covered 546×106 ha in tropical Asia and 425×106 ha in China. By 1850, 44% of China's forests had been cleared, and another 27% was lost between 1850 and 1980, leaving China with 13% forest cover (29% of the initial forest area). Tropical Asia is estimated to have lost 26%of its initial forest cover before 1850 and another 33% after 1850. The annual emissions of carbon from the two regions reflect the different histories over the last 150 years, with China's emissions peaking in the late 1950s (at 0.2-0.5 Pg C@a-1) and tropical Asia's emissions peaking in 1990s (at 1.0 Pg C@a-1). Despite the fact that most deforestation has been for new agricultural land, the majority of the lands cleared from forests in China are no longer croplands, but fallow or degraded shrublands. Unlike croplands, the origins of these other lands are poorly documented, and thus add considerable uncertainty to estimates of flux before the 1980s. Nevertheless, carbon emissions from China seem to have decreased since the 1960s to nearly zero at present. In contrast, emissions of carbon from tropical Asia were higher in the 1990s than that at any time in the past. 相似文献
5.
R. A. Houghton 《中国科学:生命科学英文版》2002,45(Z1):10-17
Evaluating the annual sources and sinks of carbon from land-use change helps con-strain other terms in the global carbon cycle and may help countries choose how to comply with commitments for reduced emissions. This paper presents the results of recent analyses ofland-use change in China and tropical Asia. The original forest areas are estimated to have cov-ered 546×10~6 ha in tropical Asia and 425×10~6 ha in China. By 1850, 44% of China's forests had been cleared, and another 27% was lost between 1850 and 1980, leaving China with 13% forestcover (29% of the initial forest area). Tropical Asia is estimated to have lost 26% of its initial forestcover before 1850 and another 33% after 1850. The annual emissions of carbon from the two regions re-flect the different histories over the last 150 years, with China's emissions peaking in thelate 1950s (at 0.2-0.5 Pg C·a~(-1)) and tropical Asia's emissions peaking in 1990s (at 1.0 Pg C·a~(-1)). Despite the fact that most deforestation has been for new agricultural land, the majority ofthe lands cleared from forests in China are no longer croplands, but fallow or degraded shrublands.Unlike croplands, the origins of these other lands are poorly documented, and thus add consider-able uncertainty to estimates of flux before the 1980s. Nevertheless, carbon emissions from China seem to have decreased since the 1960s to nearly zero at present. In contrast, emissions of car-bon from tropical Asia were higher in the 1990s than that at any time in the past. 相似文献
6.
Cande V. Ananth Katherine M. Keyes Ava Hamilton Mika Gissler Chunsen Wu Shiliang Liu Miguel Angel Luque-Fernandez Rolv Skj?rven Michelle A. Williams Minna Tikkanen Sven Cnattingius 《PloS one》2015,10(5)
BackgroundAlthough rare, placental abruption is implicated in disproportionately high rates of perinatal morbidity and mortality. Understanding geographic and temporal variations may provide insights into possible amenable factors of abruption. We examined abruption frequencies by maternal age, delivery year, and maternal birth cohorts over three decades across seven countries.MethodsWomen that delivered in the US (n = 863,879; 1979–10), Canada (4 provinces, n = 5,407,463; 1982–11), Sweden (n = 3,266,742; 1978–10), Denmark (n = 1,773,895; 1978–08), Norway (n = 1,780,271, 1978–09), Finland (n = 1,411,867; 1987–10), and Spain (n = 6,151,508; 1999–12) were analyzed. Abruption diagnosis was based on ICD coding. Rates were modeled using Poisson regression within the framework of an age-period-cohort analysis, and multi-level models to examine the contribution of smoking in four countries.ResultsAbruption rates varied across the seven countries (3–10 per 1000), Maternal age showed a consistent J-shaped pattern with increased rates at the extremes of the age distribution. In comparison to births in 2000, births after 2000 in European countries had lower abruption rates; in the US there was an increase in rate up to 2000 and a plateau thereafter. No birth cohort effects were evident. Changes in smoking prevalence partially explained the period effect in the US (P = 0.01) and Sweden (P<0.01).ConclusionsThere is a strong maternal age effect on abruption. While the abruption rate has plateaued since 2000 in the US, all other countries show declining rates. These findings suggest considerable variation in abruption frequencies across countries; differences in the distribution of risk factors, especially smoking, may help guide policy to reduce abruption rates. 相似文献
7.
A basic knowledge of regional faunas is necessary to follow the changes in macroinvertebrate communities caused by environmental influences and climatic trends in the future. We collected all the available data on water bugs in Hungary using an inventory method, a UTM grid based database was built, and Jackknife richness estimates and species accumulation curves were calculated. Fauna compositions were compared among Central-European states. As a result, an updated and annotated checklist for Hungary is provided, containing 58 species in 21 genera and 12 families. A total 66.8% of the total UTM 10 × 10 km squares in Hungary possess faunistic data for water bugs. The species number in grid cells numbered from 0 to 42, and their diversity patterns showed heterogeneity. The estimated species number of 58 is equal to the actual number of species known from the country. The asymptotic shape of the accumulative species curve predicts that additional sampling efforts will not increase the number of species currently known from Hungary. These results suggest that the number of species in the country was estimated correctly and that the species accumulation curve levels off at an asymptotic value. Thus a considerable increase in species richness is not expected in the future. Even with the species composition changing the chance of species turn-over does exist. Overall, 36.7% of the European water bug species were found in Hungary. The differences in faunal composition between Hungary and its surrounding countries were caused by the rare or unique species, whereas 33 species are common in the faunas of the eight countries. Species richness does show a correlation with latitude, and similar species compositions were observed in the countries along the same latitude. The species list and the UTM-based database are now up-to-date for Hungary, and it will provide a basis for future studies of distributional and biodiversity patterns, biogeography, relative abundance and frequency of occurrences important in community ecology, or the determination of conservation status. 相似文献
8.
Background
Vaccination coverage rates for seasonal influenza are not meeting national and international targets. Here, we investigated whether the 2009/2010 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza affected the uptake of influenza vaccines.Methodology/Principal Findings
In December 2009/January 2010 and April 2010, 500 randomly selected members of the general public in Germany, France, the United States, China, and Mexico were surveyed by telephone about vaccination for seasonal and A/H1N1 pandemic influenza. Also, in April 2010, 100 randomly selected general practitioners were surveyed. Adult vaccine coverage in December 2009/January 2010 for A/H1N1 pandemic and seasonal influenza were, respectively, 12% and 29% in France, 11% and 25% in Germany, 41% and 46% in the US, 13% and 30% in Mexico, and 12% and 10% in China. Adult uptake rates in April 2010 were higher in Mexico but similar or slightly lower in the other countries. Coverage rates in children were higher than in adults in the US, Mexico, and China but mostly lower in Germany and France. Germans and French viewed the threat of A/H1N1 pandemic influenza as low to moderate, whereas Mexicans, Americans, and Chinese viewed it as moderate to serious, opinions generally mirrored by general practitioners. The recommendation of a general practitioner was a common reason for receiving the pandemic vaccine, while not feeling at risk and concerns with vaccine safety and efficacy were common reasons for not being vaccinated. Inclusion of the A/H1N1 pandemic strain increased willingness to be vaccinated for seasonal influenza in the United States, Mexico, and China but not in Germany or France.Conclusions/Significance
The 2009/2010 A/H1N1 influenza pandemic increased vaccine uptake rates for seasonal influenza in Mexico but had little effect in other countries. Accurate communication of health information, especially by general practitioners, is needed to improve vaccine coverage rates. 相似文献9.
Dino Numerato Giovanni Fattore Fabrizio Tediosi Rinaldo Zanini Mikko Peltola Helen Banks Péter Mihalicza Liisa Lehtonen Sofia Sveréus Richard Heijink S?ren Toksvig Klitkou Eilidh Fletcher Amber van der Heijden Fredrik Lundberg Eelco Over Unto H?kkinen Timo T. Sepp?l? 《PloS one》2015,10(6)
The objective of this paper was to compare health outcomes and hospital care use of very low birth weight (VLBW), and very preterm (VLGA) infants in seven European countries. Analysis was performed on linkable patient-level registry data from seven European countries between 2006 and 2008 (Finland, Hungary, Italy (the Province of Rome), the Netherlands, Norway, Scotland, and Sweden). Mortality and length of stay (LoS) were adjusted for differences in gestational age (GA), sex, intrauterine growth, Apgar score at five minutes, parity and multiple births. The analysis included 16,087 infants. Both the 30-day and one-year adjusted mortality rates were lowest in the Nordic countries (Finland, Sweden and Norway) and Scotland and highest in Hungary and the Netherlands. For survivors, the adjusted average LoS during the first year of life ranged from 56 days in the Netherlands and Scotland to 81 days in Hungary. There were large differences between European countries in mortality rates and LoS in VLBW and VLGA infants. Substantial data linkage problems were observed in most countries due to inadequate identification procedures at birth, which limit data validity and should be addressed by policy makers across Europe. 相似文献
10.
To investigate the effect of advances in the prevention and treatment of pulmonary embolism, we examined the rates of death from pulmonary embolism in Canada for 1965-87 and compared them with those for the United States for 1962-84. The direct method of age standardization was used on sex-specific and age-specific death rates, with the 1960 US population as the standard. In both countries the death rates increased then decreased, although the changes in the Canadian rates occurred later and were less pronounced than those in the US rates. Men and elderly people were at higher risk of death from pulmonary embolism than women and younger people. Prevention strategies, possibly including encouraging a more active lifestyle and targetting high-risk groups, may further reduce pulmonary embolism death rates in both countries. 相似文献
11.
Home accidents are the main cause of death and morbidity in early childhood. Working-class children are at greatest risk. A study in an inner city area of the effects of a national television campaign about child accident prevention and of a locally designed health education initiative showed that 55% of families with young children in the study area did not watch any of the television programmes. Only 9% of a group specially encouraged to watch the programmes took any action to make their homes safer. In a comparable group who also received a home visit at which specific advice was given 60% took action to make their homes safer. The families studied were well aware before the television campaign of the importance and preventability of children''s accidents. The problems disadvantaged families face are therefore not ones of ignorance or apathy about hazards but practical difficulties in converting their concern into action. Administrative arrangements must be developed for providing health workers--especially health visitors--with detailed local information to pass on to parents. 相似文献
12.
Antibody inhibiting the haemagglutination by B.K. virus was found in 64% of the serum samples collected from 949 subjects in Hungary. The frequency of seropositivity was the lowest (17%) among infants 1 and 2 years of age and the highest (93%) in the age group 16 to 20 years. The subsequent age groups showed a slow continuous decline. The age-distribution curve drawn on the basis of the geometric means of titres has two peaks, one between 3 and 5 years of age and another between 21 and 30 years of age, reaching 6.74 and 7.05, respectively, as expressed in terms of log2 units. The prevalence of haemagglutination-inhibiting antibody to B.K. virus in Hungary and its distribution by age are similar to those reported from other European countries. 相似文献
13.
ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: The current target of universal access to long-lasting, insecticide-treated nets (LLIN) is 80% coverage to reduce malaria deaths by 75% by 2015. So far, campaigns have been the main channel for large-scale delivery of LLINs, however the World Health Organization has recommended that equal priority should be given to delivery via routine antenatal care (ANC) and immunization systems (EPI) to target pregnant women and children from birth. These various channels of LLIN delivery are targeted to children of different ages. Since risk of mortality varies with child age and LLIN effectiveness declines with net age, it was hypothesized that the age at which a child receives a new LLIN, and therefore the delivery channel, is important in optimizing the health impact of a net. METHODS: A simple dynamic mathematical model was developed of delivery and impact of LLINs among children under five years of age and their household members, incorporating data on age-specific malaria death rates, net use by household structure, and net efficacy over time. RESULTS: The presented analysis finds that supplementing a universal mass campaign with extra ANC delivery would achieve a 1.4 times higher mortality reduction than campaign delivery alone, reflecting that children born in the years between campaigns would otherwise have access to old nets or no nets at an age of high risk. The relative advantage of supplementary ANC delivery is still present though smaller if malaria transmission levels are lower or if there is a strong mass effect achieved by mass campaigns. CONCLUSION: These results indicate that LLIN delivery policies must take into account the age of greatest malaria risk. Emphasis should be placed on supporting routine delivery of LLINs to young children as well as campaigns. Lucy C Okell and Lucy Smith Paintain contributed equally. 相似文献
14.
In a sample of 61,829 US families, the probability of having an additional child is higher in those families with all the children the same sex as compared to those families with children of both sexes. Data are from families of American high school students who took the National Merit Scholarship Qualifying test in 1965. All families with 3 or 4 children were selected. Families with only boys were more likely to have an additional child than families with all girls. Less than 1% of the variance in family size is explained by family configuration. Although the sample size makes these results unequivocal for the population involved, the population is clearly biased in favor of white middle class families. 相似文献
15.
Oestergaard MZ Inoue M Yoshida S Mahanani WR Gore FM Cousens S Lawn JE Mathers CD;United Nations Inter-Agency Group for Child Mortality Estimation the Child Health Epidemiology Reference Group 《PLoS medicine》2011,8(8):e1001080
Background
Historically, the main focus of studies of childhood mortality has been the infant and under-five mortality rates. Neonatal mortality (deaths <28 days of age) has received limited attention, although such deaths account for about 41% of all child deaths. To better assess progress, we developed annual estimates for neonatal mortality rates (NMRs) and neonatal deaths for 193 countries for the period 1990–2009 with forecasts into the future.Methods and Findings
We compiled a database of mortality in neonates and children (<5 years) comprising 3,551 country-years of information. Reliable civil registration data from 1990 to 2009 were available for 38 countries. A statistical model was developed to estimate NMRs for the remaining 155 countries, 17 of which had no national data. Country consultation was undertaken to identify data inputs and review estimates. In 2009, an estimated 3.3 million babies died in the first month of life—compared with 4.6 million neonatal deaths in 1990—and more than half of all neonatal deaths occurred in five countries of the world (44% of global livebirths): India 27.8% (19.6% of global livebirths), Nigeria 7.2% (4.5%), Pakistan 6.9% (4.0%), China 6.4% (13.4%), and Democratic Republic of the Congo 4.6% (2.1%). Between 1990 and 2009, the global NMR declined by 28% from 33.2 deaths per 1,000 livebirths to 23.9. The proportion of child deaths that are in the neonatal period increased in all regions of the world, and globally is now 41%. While NMRs were halved in some regions of the world, Africa''s NMR only dropped 17.6% (43.6 to 35.9).Conclusions
Neonatal mortality has declined in all world regions. Progress has been slowest in the regions with high NMRs. Global health programs need to address neonatal deaths more effectively if Millennium Development Goal 4 (two-thirds reduction in child mortality) is to be achieved. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary 相似文献16.
A Celko B Burianová D Fedová J Koza V Zikmundová V Zikmund J Stríbrny 《Journal of hygiene, epidemiology, microbiology, and immunology》1985,29(2):193-199
In 1981 we examined 247 sera for the presence of antibodies against all three types of poliovirus and 253 sera for antibodies against M. parotitidis and three types of M. parainfluenzae viruses. The sera were obtained from the cord blood of mothers between 15 and 34 years of age. All mothers were divided into four age groups, each with primipara and multipara subgroups. The rate of seropositivity for type 1 and type 2 poliovirus-specific antibody was in all age groups higher than 90%, the overall seropositivity rate for type 3 poliovirus antibody was 83.6%, with 73.1% as the lowest rate for age group of youngest mothers. Significant seropositivity variations between the primipara and multipara subgroups were recorded only for type 3 antibody in the two age groups of oldest mothers (25-29 and 30-34 years). This is consistent with the assumed booster effect of Sabin vaccine strains on mothers of families with more than one child. Antibodies specific to mumps virus were present in the cord blood of 78.6% of all mothers and the rates of seropositivity were found to rise with the increasing age. Seropositivity for M. parainfluenzae type 1-specific antibody was demonstrated in 95.8%, for type 2-specific antibody in 98.9% and for type 3-specific antibody in 100% of mothers, which is suggestive of high herd immunity levels in the population. 相似文献
17.
Jadwiga Jaruzelska Karen Friis Henriksen Flemming Güttler Olaf Riess Krzysztof Borski Nikolaus Blin Ryszard Slomski 《Human genetics》1991,86(3):247-250
Summary The incidence of phenylketonuria (PKU) in the western part of Poland is 1 in 5000 live births. Restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) haplotypes at the phenylalanine hydroxylase locus have been analysed in 46 Polish families with PKU. Among 43 fully-informative families 16 RFLP haplotypes were identified. Haplotype 2 is the most frequently (62%) associated with Polish PKU alleles, and the codon 408 mutation is in complete linkage disequilibrium with this haplotype in Poland. This finding is in agreement with observations in other eastern European countries (German Democratic Republic, Czechoslovakia, and Hungary) and in contrast to the genotype distribution observed in western European countries. The present observation suggests the spread of classical PKU, due to the codon 408 mutation associated with haplotype 2, from east to west in European populations. Perhaps more important for genetic counselling, 62% of all PKU chromosomes in the Polish population can now be detected using only one mutantspecific oligonucleotide probe. 相似文献
18.
Nicol Gozzi Matteo Chinazzi Jessica T. Davis Kunpeng Mu Ana Pastore y Piontti Marco Ajelli Nicola Perra Alessandro Vespignani 《PLoS computational biology》2022,18(5)
We analyze the effectiveness of the first six months of vaccination campaign against SARS-CoV-2 in Italy by using a computational epidemic model which takes into account demographic, mobility, vaccines data, as well as estimates of the introduction and spreading of the more transmissible Alpha variant. We consider six sub-national regions and study the effect of vaccines in terms of number of averted deaths, infections, and reduction in the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) with respect to counterfactual scenarios with the actual non-pharmaceuticals interventions but no vaccine administration. Furthermore, we compare the effectiveness in counterfactual scenarios with different vaccines allocation strategies and vaccination rates. Our results show that, as of 2021/07/05, vaccines averted 29, 350 (IQR: [16, 454–42, 826]) deaths and 4, 256, 332 (IQR: [1, 675, 564–6, 980, 070]) infections and a new pandemic wave in the country. During the same period, they achieved a −22.2% (IQR: [−31.4%; −13.9%]) IFR reduction. We show that a campaign that would have strictly prioritized age groups at higher risk of dying from COVID-19, besides frontline workers and the fragile population, would have implied additional benefits both in terms of avoided fatalities and reduction in the IFR. Strategies targeting the most active age groups would have prevented a higher number of infections but would have been associated with more deaths. Finally, we study the effects of different vaccination intake scenarios by rescaling the number of available doses in the time period under study to those administered in other countries of reference. The modeling framework can be applied to other countries to provide a mechanistic characterization of vaccination campaigns worldwide. 相似文献
19.
Objectives To examine associations between child wellbeing and material living standards (average income), the scale of differentiation in social status (income inequality), and social exclusion (children in relative poverty) in rich developed societies.Design Ecological, cross sectional studies.Setting Cross national comparisons of 23 rich countries; cross state comparisons within the United States.Population Children and young people.Main outcome measures The Unicef index of child wellbeing and its components for rich countries; eight comparable measures for the US states and District of Columbia (teenage births, juvenile homicides, infant mortality, low birth weight, educational performance, dropping out of high school, overweight, mental health problems).Results The overall index of child wellbeing was negatively correlated with income inequality (r=−0.64, P=0.001) and percentage of children in relative poverty (r=−0.67, P=0.001) but not with average income (r=0.15, P=0.50). Many more indicators of child wellbeing were associated with income inequality or children in relative poverty, or both, than with average incomes. Among the US states and District of Columbia all indicators were significantly worse in more unequal states. Only teenage birth rates and the proportion of children dropping out of high school were lower in richer states.Conclusions Improvements in child wellbeing in rich societies may depend more on reductions in inequality than on further economic growth. 相似文献
20.