Local scale prioritization of cost-efficient protection within the National Park Thy

This study applied MARXAN to identify cost-efficient areas for biodiversity protection, within the Thy National Park in Denmark. Public authorities have requested a more systematic approach to managing public land, which identifies cost-effective solutions and potential trade-offs between economic cost and biodiversity benefits. The aim of this study was to support the local management staff in setting conservation targets and prioritizing their management efforts. This was addressed through the creation of two primary scenarios: i) applying uniform conservation targets to all biodiversity features, and ii) heterogeneous targets addressing various degrees of conservation importance. Four sub-scenarios were established for each primary scenario to investigate the implications of various conservation targets on conservation cost. Local data on red-listed species and habitat types were used to assess biodiversity benefits. Detailed cost estimates of required conservation actions were included. The results indicated that scenarios with uniform conservation targets provided more flexible networks of protected areas but contributed less to target achievement and a smaller share of selected planning units overlapped with current protected areas. Applying heterogeneous targets based on threat status resulted in a higher degree of target achievement and compactness, but provided less flexible networks. However, these networks may be more suitable for efficient management due to a higher level of clustering and spatial overlap with threatened species distributions.     

Conservation targets for viable species assemblages?

Estimates of minimum areas required for effective biodiversity conservation differ substantially. Scientific reserve design and placement procedures indicate that between 30 and 75% of any region may be required to sample biodiversity features. These estimates do not routinely incorporate measures for sampling viable populations of species or explore the area requirements of sampling viable populations of species assemblages. To determine the area requirements for sampling viable populations of a herbivore assemblage, spatially explicit abundance data from the Kruger National Park, South Africa, were analyzed. Area requirements were consistently above 50% and were unaffected by selected target population sizes. In addition, area requirements appeared to be insensitive to selection unit size (analytical grain), habitat quality, the coarseness of the land classification system used or the presence of low-density species. Thus, traditional conservation area targets of 10–15% appear inadequate for representing viable populations of a herbivore assemblage from African savanna regions. This suggests that conservation targets of at least 50% of land classification units may represent a more appropriate conservation rule of thumb, or alternatively, that the use of data independent conservation targets may need to be abandoned.     

Scale and conservation planning in the real world

Conservation planning is carried out on a variety of geopolitical and biogeographical scales. Whereas considerable consensus is emerging about the most appropriate procedures for identifying conservation areas, the spatial implications of conducting conservation planning at divergent scales have received little attention. Here we explore the consequences of planning at different geopolitical scales, using a database of the mammalian fauna from the Northern Provinces of South Africa. The conservation network resulting from treating the region as one unit is compared with networks generated separately for the provinces nested in that region. These outcomes are evaluated in terms of (i) their land use efficiencies, (ii) their spatial overlap, and (iii) the impact of algorithm attributes. Although land use efficiencies are greater on broader scales, on average the spatial congruence between the broad-scale regional network and fine-scale provincial networks was less than 14%. Algorithms using different selection rules fail to improve this disturbing outcome. Consequently, scale has an overwhelming influence on areas identified as conservation networks in geopolitical units. This should be recognized in conservation planning.     

Incorporating zoning and socioeconomic costs in planning for bird conservation

New systematic conservation approaches have high potential in evaluation of different conservation scenarios and can be used as decision support tools for managers and planners with multiple goals. The present study focused on two major issues in conservation planning including socioeconomic costs and zoning procedure. The goal was to prioritize and identify representative areas for bird conservation, while minimizing the economic cost for the silvicultural sector and resolve conflicts with recreational activities. The study was conducted in forest areas of Golestan Province as part of Hyrcanian mixed forests, located along the southern coasts of the Caspian Sea and northern slopes of the Alborz Mountains, northern Iran. We used systematic conservation software Marxan with Zones to select candidate areas for conservation. Two types of conservation networks were defined, one with high and partial protection zones and the other with high protection zones only. We focused on four conservation scenarios varying in targets, costs, and multiple zones. The results showed that incorporation of socioeconomic costs significantly decreases the potential impacts on the silvicultural and recreational sectors without significant change in the area of protection zones. Furthermore, we found that design of multiple zone conservation areas facilitates evaluation of a wider range of conservation scenarios that can reduce potential socioeconomic impacts on other interests.     

Solving the maximum representation problem to prioritize areas for the conservation of terrestrial mammals at risk in Oaxaca

Oaxaca, located in south‐west México within the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot, holds exceptionally high biodiversity for several taxa, including mammals. It has four decreed natural protected areas (NPAs) covering 5% of its total area, but only three of these, covering only 0.2% of the area, are strictly protected as National Parks. The current study develops ecological niche models for 183 terrestrial mammals for use as biodiversity surrogates in a systematic conservation planning exercise. Forty‐five of these species were selected on the basis of their being either endangered or threatened or otherwise listed under the Mexican Red List or because they were endemic to either Oaxaca or to Mexico. The niche models were constructed with a machine‐learning algorithm (GARP, Genetic Algorithm for Rule‐Set Prediction) and refined by restricting each model to sites with suitable vegetation and habitat patches contiguous with known occurrences of the species. If the entire predicted geographical distribution of each of the 45 species listed above is put under protection, the entire state of Oaxaca gets included. Therefore, we imposed different constraints on the maximum area that can be put under protection (5–30% of the area of Oaxaca) and selected nominal conservation area networks based on different percentage representation targets for the species’ modelled distributions based on their conservation status (10–100%). The area selection utilized a rarity‐ and complementarity‐based algorithm (in the ResNet software package). The goal was to have as many as possible of the 45 species at risk meet their specified representation targets in the budgeted area. The methods developed here combine ecological niche modelling and area prioritization algorithms for integrated conservation planning in a protocol that is suitable for other highly biodiverse regions.     

Management options for river conservation planning: condition and conservation re-visited

1. Systematic conservation planning is a process widely used in terrestrial and marine environments. A principal goal is to establish a network of protected areas representing the full variety of species or ecosystems. We suggest considering three key attributes of a catchment when planning for aquatic conservation: irreplaceability, condition and vulnerability. 2. Based on observed and modelled distributions of 367 invertebrates in the Australian state of Victoria, conservation value was measured by calculating an irreplaceability coefficient for 1854 subcatchments. Irreplaceability indicates the likelihood of any subcatchment being needed to achieve conservation targets. We estimated it with a bootstrapped heuristic reserve design algorithm, which included upstream–downstream connectivity rules. The selection metric within the algorithm was total summed rarity, corrected for protected area. 3. Condition was estimated using a stressor gradient approach in which two classes of geographical information system Layers were summarised using principal components analysis. The first class was disturbance measures such as nutrient and sediment budgets, salinisation and weed cover. The second class was land use layers, including classes of forestry, agricultural and urban use. The main gradient, explaining 56% of the variation, could be characterised as agricultural disturbance. Seventy‐five per cent of the study area was classified as disturbed. 4. Our definition of vulnerability was the likelihood of a catchment being exposed to a land use that degrades its condition. This was estimated by comparing land capability and current land use. If land was capable of supporting a land use that would have a more degrading effect on a river than its current tenure, it was classified vulnerable (66% of the study area). 79% of catchments contained more then 50% vulnerable land. 5. When integrating the three measures, two major groups of catchments requiring urgent conservation measures were identified. Seven per cent of catchments were highly irreplaceable, highly vulnerable but in degraded condition. These catchments were flagged for restoration. While most highly irreplaceable catchments in good condition were already protected, 2.5% of catchments in this category are on vulnerable land. These are priority areas for assigning river reserves.     

Maximizing species conservation in continental Ecuador: a case of systematic conservation planning for biodiverse regions

Ecuador has the largest number of species by area worldwide, but also a low representation of species within its protected areas. Here, we applied systematic conservation planning to identify potential areas for conservation in continental Ecuador, with the aim of increasing the representation of terrestrial species diversity in the protected area network. We selected 809 terrestrial species (amphibians, birds, mammals, and plants), for which distributions were estimated via species distribution models (SDMs), using Maxent. For each species we established conservation goals based on conservation priorities, and estimated new potential protected areas using Marxan conservation planning software. For each selected area, we determined their conservation priority and feasibility of establishment, two important aspects in the decision-making processes. We found that according to our conservation goals, the current protected area network contains large conservation gaps. Potential areas for conservation almost double the surface area of currently protected areas. Most of the newly proposed areas are located in the Coast, a region with large conservation gaps and irreversible changes in land use. The most feasible areas for conservation were found in the Amazon and Andes regions, which encompass more undisturbed habitats, and already harbor most of the current reserves. Our study allows defining a viable strategy for preserving Ecuador''s biodiversity, by combining SDMs, GIS-based decision-support software, and priority and feasibility assessments of the selected areas. This approach is useful for complementing protected area networks in countries with great biodiversity, insufficient biological information, and limited resources for conservation.     

Maximising return on conservation investment in the conterminous USA

Efficient conservation planning requires knowledge about conservation targets, threats to those targets, costs of conservation and the marginal return to additional conservation efforts. Systematic conservation planning typically only takes a small piece of this complex puzzle into account. Here, we use a return‐on‐investment (ROI) approach to prioritise lands for conservation at the county level in the conterminous USA. Our approach accounts for species richness, county area, the proportion of species' ranges already protected, the threat of land conversion and land costs. Areas selected by a complementarity‐based greedy heuristic using our full ROI approach provided greater averted species losses per dollar spent compared with areas selected by heuristics accounting for richness alone or richness and cost, and avoided acquiring lands not threatened with conversion. In contrast to traditional prioritisation approaches, our results highlight conservation bargains, opportunities to avert the threat of development and places where conservation efforts are currently lacking.     

基于水鸟保护的长江流域湿地优先保护格局模拟

基于系统保护规划的理论和方法,以长江流域湿地为研究区,构建了基于气候、地貌分异的湿地生态地理综合分类单元,并将其作为宏观尺度湿地生态系统保护目标,同时考虑以湿地鸟类为代表的物种保目标,依托Marxan系统保护规划工具,确定了长江流域湿地保护具有不可替代性的优先保护格局。该格局能以最小的社会经济和土地资源代价最大程度的保护湿地生物多样性,对比现有湿地保护格局,最终确定了游离于现有保护体系外的湿地保护空缺。研究结果表明:长江流域源区和长江三角洲地区的湿地保护体系完善,无需新建保护区;金沙江流域湿地保护空缺主要分布在现有保护区周围,可以适当扩充保护区外围或调整边界;嘉陵江流域和长江上游干流流域的保护空缺严重,大面积集中在重庆西北部,乌江流域的贵州省习水县北部湖泊湿地存在保护空缺,这些区域建议适当新建保护区或者保护小区;长江中下游湿地保护空缺主要分布在湖北、湖南、江西与安徽境内的沿江湖泊湿地,建议建立湿地公园及合理进行河流岸坡修复。研究结果可为长江流域湿地保护体系调整、保护规划制定提供参考依据,从宏观层面上为长江流域湿地统筹保护及合理开发利用提供科学依据。     

Predicting how adaptation to climate change could affect ecological conservation: secondary impacts of shifting agricultural suitability

Aim:  Ecosystems face numerous well‐documented threats from climate change. The well‐being of people also is threatened by climate change, most prominently by reduced food security. Human adaptation to food scarcity, including shifting agricultural zones, will create new threats for natural ecosystems. We investigated how shifts in crop suitability because of climate change may overlap currently protected areas (PAs) and priority sites for PA expansion in South Africa. Predicting the locations of suitable climate conditions for crop growth will assist conservationists and decision‐makers in planning for climate change. Location:  South Africa. Methods:  We modelled climatic suitability in 2055 for maize and wheat cultivation, two extensively planted, staple crops, and overlaid projected changes with PAs and PA expansion priorities. Results:  Changes in winter climate could make an additional 2 million ha of land suitable for wheat cultivation, while changes in summer climate could expand maize suitability by up to 3.5 million ha. Conversely, 3 million ha of lands currently suitable for wheat production are predicted to become climatically unsuitable, along with 13 million ha for maize. At least 328 of 834 (39%) PAs are projected to be affected by altered wheat or maize suitability in their buffer zones. Main conclusions:  Reduced crop suitability and food scarcity in subsistence areas may lead to the exploitation of PAs for food and fuel. However, if reduced crop suitability leads to agricultural abandonment, this may afford opportunities for ecological restoration. Expanded crop suitability in PA buffer zones could lead to additional isolation of PAs if portions of newly suitable land are converted to agriculture. These results suggest that altered crop suitability will be widespread throughout South Africa, including within and around lands identified as conservation priorities. Assessing how climate change will affect crop suitability near PAs is a first step towards proactively identifying potential conflicts between human adaptation and conservation planning.     

Diversity and distribution of aquatic insects in Southern Brazil wetlands: implications for biodiversity conservation in a Neotropical region

The selection of priority areas is an enormous challenge for biodiversity conservation. Some biogeographic methods have been used to identify the priority areas to conservation, and panbiogeography is one of them. This study aimed at the utilization of panbiogeographic tools, to identify the distribution patterns of aquatic insect genera, in wetland systems of an extensive area in the Neotropical region (approximately 280 000km2), and to compare the distribution of the biogeographic units identified by the aquatic insects, with the conservation units of Southern Brazil. We analyzed the distribution pattern of 82 genera distributed in four orders of aquatic insects (Diptera, Odonata, Ephemeroptera and Trichoptera) in Southern Brazil wetlands. Therefore, 32 biogeographic nodes corresponded to the priority areas for conservation of the aquatic insect diversity. Among this total, 13 were located in the Atlantic Rainforest, 16 in the Pampa and three amongst both biomes. The distribution of nodes showed that only 15% of the dispersion centers of insects were inserted in conservation units. The four priority areas pointed by node cluster criterion must be considered in further inclusions of areas for biodiversity conservation in Southern Brazil wetlands, since such areas present species from different ancestral biota. The inclusion of such areas into the conservation units would be a strong way to conserve the aquatic biodiversity in this region.     

Spatial-explicit assessment of current and future conservation options for the endangered Corsican Red Deer (Cervus elaphus corsicanus) in Sardinia

The Corsican red deer, a sub-species of the European red deer endemic to Sardinia and Corsica, was abundant on both islands at the beginning of 1900. It went extinct in Corsica and reached a minimum of 100 individuals in Sardinia by 1970. Numbers have recovered in Sardinia with more than 1,000 rutting males now present; in the 1980s the deer was reintroduced to Corsica, but the Sardinian population remains fragmented. We developed a potential distribution model in Sardinia using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis. To assess the deer’s protection status we compared the model with the existing and proposed conservation areas and investigated different conservation scenarios in relation to the expansion of its current range and resilience to future changes in land use and predicted trends of desertification. According to our results over 70% of Sardinia is unsuitable to the deer, nevertheless high suitability areas (Mediterranean forests away from main roads) are available throughout the island, particularly in the south and in the central-eastern part. Existing protected areas do not provide for the conservation of the deer but public owned forests, where hunting is prohibited, extend some level of protection, and the protected areas proposed by the Regional administration, if implemented, will be increasing this protection. Three main areas have emerged as conservation priorities to guarantee adequate conservation potential in the future. Our approach provides valuable data to inform conservation policy, and could be easily replicated in other parts of the Mediterranean.     

Incorporating climate change adaptation into national conservation assessments

The Convention on Biological Diversity requires that member nations establish protected area networks that are representative of the country's biodiversity. The identification of priority sites to achieve outstanding representation targets is typically accomplished through formal conservation assessments. However, representation in conservation assessments or gap analyses has largely been interpreted based on a static view of biodiversity. In a rapidly changing climate, the speed of changes in biodiversity distribution and abundance is causing us to rethink the viability of this approach. Here we describe three explicit strategies for climate change adaptation as part of national conservation assessments: conserving the geophysical stage, identifying and protecting climate refugia, and promoting cross‐environment connectivity. We demonstrate how these three approaches were integrated into a national terrestrial conservation assessment for Papua New Guinea, one of the most biodiverse countries on earth. Protected areas identified based on representing geophysical diversity were able to capture over 90% of the diversity in vegetation communities, suggesting they could help protect representative biodiversity regardless of changes in the distribution of species and communities. By including climate change refugia as part of the national conservation assessment, it was possible to substantially reduce the amount of environmental change expected to be experienced within protected areas, without increasing the overall cost of the protected area network. Explicitly considering environmental heterogeneity between adjacent areas resulted in protected area networks with over 40% more internal environmental connectivity. These three climate change adaptation strategies represent defensible ways to guide national conservation priority given the uncertainty that currently exists in our ability to predict climate changes and their impacts. Importantly, they are also consistent with data and expertise typically available during national conservation assessments, including in developing nations. This means that in the vast majority of countries, these strategies could be implemented immediately.     

Global conservation strategies for two clades of snakes: combining taxon-specific goals with general prioritization schemes

Aim We present the first attempt of mapping global conservation priorities for two snake clades, Viperidae and Elapidae. We compared the global conservation priorities of each clade with the nine global conservation schemes defined by Brooks et al. to evaluate how effective these schemes are in ensuring the preservation of viperid and elapid biodiversity. Location Global. Methods Based on range maps of 228 species of Viperidae and 224 species of Elapidae, we used systematic conservation planning methods of complementarity and irreplaceability to generate a set of conservation networks under two cost scenarios: (1) minimizing conservation‐human development conflicts and (2) maximizing environmental suitability for high snake richness. Analysis of variance was used to investigate whether the mean irreplaceability of cells matching the areas covered by each of the nine global prioritization schemes in Brooks et al. was higher than the mean irreplaceability of cells located outside these areas. Results Overall, few areas showed irreplaceability higher than 0.5 based on a goal of representing 25% of the species’ ranges. The conservation networks generated in expectation of low conflicts between human development and conservation were quite different from the networks of high environmental suitability. Areas with higher irreplaceability coincided with the regions covered by global schemes of Endemic Bird Areas (for Viperidae and Elapidae) and High‐Biodiversity Wilderness (for Elapidae). Main conclusions Our findings indicated the existence of viable conservation opportunities for these two snake groups. This study can be viewed as a way to overcome, at least in part, the recent criticism concerning the independent development of several global conservation priorities by evaluating which groups of organisms are better represented in each of them. More than simply determining priorities for snakes’ conservation, our analyses showed that the development of parallel priority‐setting initiatives can be reconciled with those strategies for which financial resources are already being designed.     

Integrating GIS and expert judgment in a multi-criteria analysis to map and develop a habitat suitability index: A case study of large mammals on the Malayan Peninsula

Many habitat patches in tropical landscapes have become less suitable for wildlife due to an increase in anthropogenic disturbances. An index of habitat suitability based on the ecological factors that collectively determine the suitability of an organism's habitat is important for conservation planning. However, a widely accepted and comprehensive multi-criteria habitat suitability index for umbrella species is still lacking, particularly in areas where information related to the biology and ecology of the species of interest is not available. Therefore we develop preliminary habitat maps and measure the degree of habitat suitability for large mammals, focusing on four umbrella species in the State of Selangor, Peninsular Malaysia: Panthera tigris jacksoni (Malayan tiger), Tapirus indicus (Malayan tapir), Helarctos malayanus malayanus (Malayan sun bear), and Rusa unicolor cambojensis (sambar deer). The former two are endangered and the latter two are vulnerable according to the IUCN Red List. The suitability of habitat patches for each species was measured across the entire study area as well as in nine wildlife protected areas by integrating GIS data and expert opinion. Expert opinions were used as the source of information regarding the stresses faced by the species because there was insufficient information available from ground surveys.We developed an index and maps of habitat suitability for each species, which were then integrated to represent a combined index (ranging from 0 to 27) and spatially explicit maps of the area's habitat suitability for large mammals. The average large mammal habitat suitability index value of the State of Selangor (9) indicates that many habitat patches have become unsuitable for such species. Of the nine wildlife protected areas, Fraser's Hill (22), Sungai Dusun (22), and Bukit Kutu (21) are very suitable; Klang Gate (20) and Templers Park (17) are suitable; and the remaining four are unsuitable for large mammals. We assume that this preliminary habitat suitability index and mapping are useful for conservation planning of wildlife habitats at both landscape and regional scales, as well as providing an initial foundation for revision by future research with significant new information.     

Avoiding costly conservation mistakes: the importance of defining actions and costs in spatial priority setting

Background

The typical mandate in conservation planning is to identify areas that represent biodiversity targets within the smallest possible area of land or sea, despite the fact that area may be a poor surrogate for the cost of many conservation actions. It is also common for priorities for conservation investment to be identified without regard to the particular conservation action that will be implemented. This demonstrates inadequate problem specification and may lead to inefficiency: the cost of alternative conservation actions can differ throughout a landscape, and may result in dissimilar conservation priorities.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigate the importance of formulating conservation planning problems with objectives and cost data that relate to specific conservation actions. We identify priority areas in Australia for two alternative conservation actions: land acquisition and stewardship. Our analyses show that using the cost surrogate that most closely reflects the planned conservation action can cut the cost of achieving our biodiversity goals by half. We highlight spatial differences in relative priorities for land acquisition and stewardship in Australia, and provide a simple approach for determining which action should be undertaken where.

Conclusions/Significance

Our study shows that a poorly posed conservation problem that fails to pre-specify the planned conservation action and incorporate cost a priori can lead to expensive mistakes. We can be more efficient in achieving conservation goals by clearly specifying our conservation objective and parameterising the problem with economic data that reflects this objective.     

Conserving what,where and how? Cost-efficient measures to conserve biodiversity in Denmark

Biodiversity conservation efforts in Europe have traditionally focused on farmland and open nature areas such as grasslands, heathlands and meadows, while little attention has been devoted to conservation actions in forest. Using detailed information on the geographical distribution of about 900 terrestrial species in Denmark we apply systematic conservation planning techniques to identify how to protect biodiversity at the lowest cost to society. The results suggest that conservation actions in forest should be given a higher priority. Thus, three to four times the number of forest species are protected per million € compared with species living in open land natural areas. Furthermore, a gap analysis finds the current designation of Natura 2000 and other protected areas is skewed toward open land natural areas, and insufficient to meet the conservation targets on forest species.     

Land Suitability Assessment on a Watershed of Loess Plateau Using the Analytic Hierarchy Process

In order to reduce soil erosion and desertification, the Sloping Land Conversion Program has been conducted in China for more than 15 years, and large areas of farmland have been converted to forest and grassland. However, this large-scale vegetation-restoration project has faced some key problems (e.g. soil drying) that have limited the successful development of the current ecological-recovery policy. Therefore, it is necessary to know about the land use, vegetation, and soil, and their inter-relationships in order to identify the suitability of vegetation restoration. This study was conducted at the watershed level in the ecologically vulnerable region of the Loess Plateau, to evaluate the land suitability using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The results showed that (1) the area unsuitable for crops accounted for 73.3% of the watershed, and the main factors restricting cropland development were soil physical properties and soil nutrients; (2) the area suitable for grassland was about 86.7% of the watershed, with the remaining 13.3% being unsuitable; (3) an area of 3.95 km², accounting for 66.7% of the watershed, was unsuitable for forest. Overall, the grassland was found to be the most suitable land-use to support the aims of the Sloping Land Conversion Program in the Liudaogou watershed. Under the constraints of soil water shortage and nutrient deficits, crops and forests were considered to be inappropriate land uses in the study area, especially on sloping land. When selecting species for re-vegetation, non-native grass species with high water requirements should be avoided so as to guarantee the sustainable development of grassland and effective ecological functioning. Our study provides local land managers and farmers with valuable information about the inappropriateness of growing trees in the study area along with some information on species selection for planting in the semi-arid area of the Loess Plateau.     

Effects of budget constraints on conservation network design for biodiversity and ecosystem services

Limited budgets and budget cuts hamper the development of effective biodiversity conservation networks. Optimizing the spatial configuration of conservation networks given such budget constraints remains challenging. Systematic conservation planning addresses this challenge. Systematic conservation planning can integrate both biodiversity and ecosystem services as conservation targets, and hence address the challenge to operationalize ecosystem services as an anthropocentric argument for conservation. We create two conservation scenarios to expand the current conservation network in the Dutch province of Limburg. One scenario focuses on biodiversity only and the other integrates biodiversity and ecosystem services. We varied conservation budgets in these scenarios and used the software Marxan to assess differences in the resulting network configurations. In addition, we tested the network’s cost-effectiveness by allocating a conservation budget either in one or in multiple steps. We included twenty-nine biodiversity surrogates and five ecosystem services. The inclusion of ecosystem services to expand Limburg’s conservation network only moderately changed prioritized areas, compared to only conserving biodiversity. Network expansion in a single time-step is more efficient in terms of compactness and cost-effectiveness than implementing it in multiple time-steps. Therefore, to cost-effectively plan conservation networks, the full budget should ideally be available before the plans are implemented. We show that including ecosystem services to cost-effectively expand conservation networks can simultaneously encourage biodiversity conservation and stimulate the protection of conservation-compatible ecosystem services.     

Evaluation of Bayesian networks for modelling habitat suitability and management of a protected area

To be effective, management of protected areas should be based on the best available evidence, including the scientific literature and expert knowledge. However, lack of such evidence in a suitable form to support decision-making may hinder effective management. Here we examine the use of Bayesian networks to support the management of protected areas, through the development of habitat suitability models for eight species of conservation concern. Bayesian networks were constructed on the basis of the scientific literature and expert knowledge, and were then tested using results from a field survey. Models of all species demonstrated very high discrimination between presence and absence sites, as indicated by AUC values >0.8, with values >0.9 obtained for four species, and Kappa values in the range of 0.4–0.9. The Bayesian networks were then used to examine the impact of different management interventions on habitat suitability of each species, including tree cutting, grazing and burning. Species differed in terms of their sensitivity to different management interventions, and model output provided evidence of both negative and positive interactions between types of intervention. These results highlight the trade-offs that must often be made when undertaking conservation management, and demonstrate the value of Bayesian networks in helping to make such trade-offs explicit. The identification of management impacts through analysis of available evidence also demonstrates the value of Bayesian networks for supporting evidence-based approaches to protected area management.