Spatial analysis of COVID-19 spread in Iran: Insights into geographical and structural transmission determinants at a province level

The Islamic Republic of Iran reported its first COVID-19 cases by 19^th February 2020, since then it has become one of the most affected countries, with more than 73,000 cases and 4,585 deaths to this date. Spatial modeling could be used to approach an understanding of structural and sociodemographic factors that have impacted COVID-19 spread at a province-level in Iran. Therefore, in the present paper, we developed a spatial statistical approach to describe how COVID-19 cases are spatially distributed and to identify significant spatial clusters of cases and how socioeconomic and climatic features of Iranian provinces might predict the number of cases. The analyses are applied to cumulative cases of the disease from February 19^th to March 18^th. They correspond to obtaining maps associated with quartiles for rates of COVID-19 cases smoothed through a Bayesian technique and relative risks, the calculation of global (Moran’s I) and local indicators of spatial autocorrelation (LISA), both univariate and bivariate, to derive significant clustering, and the fit of a multivariate spatial lag model considering a set of variables potentially affecting the presence of the disease. We identified a cluster of provinces with significantly higher rates of COVID-19 cases around Tehran (p-value< 0.05), indicating that the COVID-19 spread within Iran was spatially correlated. Urbanized, highly connected provinces with older population structures and higher average temperatures were the most susceptible to present a higher number of COVID-19 cases (p-value < 0.05). Interestingly, literacy is a factor that is associated with a decrease in the number of cases (p-value < 0.05), which might be directly related to health literacy and compliance with public health measures. These features indicate that social distancing, protecting older adults, and vulnerable populations, as well as promoting health literacy, might be useful to reduce SARS-CoV-2 spread in Iran. One limitation of our analysis is that the most updated information we found concerning socioeconomic and climatic features is not for 2020, or even for a same year, so that the obtained associations should be interpreted with caution. Our approach could be applied to model COVID-19 outbreaks in other countries with similar characteristics or in case of an upturn in COVID-19 within Iran.     

Nowcasting the Spread of Chikungunya Virus in the Americas

Background

In December 2013, the first locally-acquired chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infections in the Americas were reported in the Caribbean. As of May 16, 55,992 cases had been reported and the outbreak was still spreading. Identification of newly affected locations is paramount to intervention activities, but challenging due to limitations of current data on the outbreak and on CHIKV transmission. We developed models to make probabilistic predictions of spread based on current data considering these limitations.

Methods and Findings

Branching process models capturing travel patterns, local infection prevalence, climate dependent transmission factors, and associated uncertainty estimates were developed to predict probable locations for the arrival of CHIKV-infected travelers and for the initiation of local transmission. Many international cities and areas close to where transmission has already occurred were likely to have received infected travelers. Of the ten locations predicted to be the most likely locations for introduced CHIKV transmission in the first four months of the outbreak, eight had reported local cases by the end of April. Eight additional locations were likely to have had introduction leading to local transmission in April, but with substantial uncertainty.

Conclusions

Branching process models can characterize the risk of CHIKV introduction and spread during the ongoing outbreak. Local transmission of CHIKV is currently likely in several Caribbean locations and possible, though uncertain, for other locations in the continental United States, Central America, and South America. This modeling framework may also be useful for other outbreaks where the risk of pathogen spread over heterogeneous transportation networks must be rapidly assessed on the basis of limited information.     

Analysing spatio-temporal clustering of meningococcal meningitis outbreaks in Niger reveals opportunities for improved disease control

Background

Meningococcal meningitis is a major health problem in the “African Meningitis Belt” where recurrent epidemics occur during the hot, dry season. In Niger, a central country belonging to the Meningitis Belt, reported meningitis cases varied between 1,000 and 13,000 from 2003 to 2009, with a case-fatality rate of 5–15%.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In order to gain insight in the epidemiology of meningococcal meningitis in Niger and to improve control strategies, the emergence of the epidemics and their diffusion patterns at a fine spatial scale have been investigated. A statistical analysis of the spatio-temporal distribution of confirmed meningococcal meningitis cases was performed between 2002 and 2009, based on health centre catchment areas (HCCAs) as spatial units. Anselin''s local Moran''s I test for spatial autocorrelation and Kulldorff''s spatial scan statistic were used to identify spatial and spatio-temporal clusters of cases. Spatial clusters were detected every year and most frequently occurred within nine southern districts. Clusters most often encompassed few HCCAs within a district, without expanding to the entire district. Besides, strong intra-district heterogeneity and inter-annual variability in the spatio-temporal epidemic patterns were observed. To further investigate the benefit of using a finer spatial scale for surveillance and disease control, we compared timeliness of epidemic detection at the HCCA level versus district level and showed that a decision based on threshold estimated at the HCCA level may lead to earlier detection of outbreaks.

Conclusions/Significance

Our findings provide an evidence-based approach to improve control of meningitis in sub-Saharan Africa. First, they can assist public health authorities in Niger to better adjust allocation of resources (antibiotics, rapid diagnostic tests and medical staff). Then, this spatio-temporal analysis showed that surveillance at a finer spatial scale (HCCA) would be more efficient for public health response: outbreaks would be detected earlier and reactive vaccination would be better targeted.     

Reconociendo el virus del chikunguña

The chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an Alphavirus that belongs to the Old World group. These arthritogenic viruses cause a febrile illness characterized by arthralgias and myalgias.Although fatal cases during CHIKV infection are rare, the disease may be disabling and generate a broad spectrum of atypical manifestations, such as cardiovascular, respiratory, eye, kidney, and skin complications, among others. When joint pain persists for three or more months, it results in the chronic form of the disease called post-chikungunya chronic inflammatory rheumatism, which constitutes the main disease sequel. CHIKV is not considered a neurotropic virus; however, it can affect the central nervous system, especially in children and the elderly, causing severe and permanent sequelae.CHIKV outbreaks had been previously reported in Africa, Asia, and Europe, but the virus introduction to the American continent was documented until the end of 2013. Since then, the virus has spread to 45 countries and territories causing near two million cases in just two years. This review describes the molecular biology, clinical manifestations, pathogenesis, and significant post-infection complications of CHIKV. Additionally, it collects published information about the outbreak in Colombia and the American continent between 2014 and 2020.     

Chikungunya Virus Transmission Potential by Local Aedes Mosquitoes in the Americas and Europe

Background

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), mainly transmitted in urban areas by the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus, constitutes a major public health problem. In late 2013, CHIKV emerged on Saint-Martin Island in the Caribbean and spread throughout the region reaching more than 40 countries. Thus far, Ae. aegypti mosquitoes have been implicated as the sole vector in the outbreaks, leading to the hypothesis that CHIKV spread could be limited only to regions where this mosquito species is dominant.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We determined the ability of local populations of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus from the Americas and Europe to transmit the CHIKV strain of the Asian genotype isolated from Saint-Martin Island (CHIKV_SM) during the recent epidemic, and an East-Central-South African (ECSA) genotype CHIKV strain isolated from La Réunion Island (CHIKV_LR) as a well-characterized control virus. We also evaluated the effect of temperature on transmission of CHIKV_SM by European Ae. albopictus. We found that (i) Aedes aegypti from Saint-Martin Island transmit CHIKV_SM and CHIKV_LR with similar efficiency, (ii) Ae. aegypti from the Americas display similar transmission efficiency for CHIKV_SM, (iii) American and European populations of the alternative vector species Ae. albopictus were as competent as Ae. aegypti populations with respect to transmission of CHIKV_SM and (iv) exposure of European Ae. albopictus to low temperatures (20°C) significantly reduced the transmission potential for CHIKV_SM.

Conclusions/Significance

CHIKV strains belonging to the ECSA genotype could also have initiated local transmission in the new world. Additionally, the ongoing CHIKV outbreak in the Americas could potentially spread throughout Ae. aegypti- and Ae. albopictus-infested regions of the Americas with possible imported cases of CHIKV to Ae. albopictus-infested regions in Europe. Colder temperatures may decrease the local transmission of CHIKV_SM by European Ae. albopictus, potentially explaining the lack of autochthonous transmission of CHIKV_SM in Europe despite the hundreds of imported CHIKV cases returning from the Caribbean.     

Genotypic and Phenotypic Characterization of Chikungunya Virus of Different Genotypes from Malaysia

Background

Mosquito-borne Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has recently re-emerged globally. The epidemic East/Central/South African (ECSA) strains have spread for the first time to Asia, which previously only had endemic Asian strains. In Malaysia, the ECSA strain caused an extensive nationwide outbreak in 2008, while the Asian strains only caused limited outbreaks prior to this. To gain insight into these observed epidemiological differences, we compared genotypic and phenotypic characteristics of CHIKV of Asian and ECSA genotypes isolated in Malaysia.

Methods and Findings

CHIKV of Asian and ECSA genotypes were isolated from patients during outbreaks in Bagan Panchor in 2006, and Johor in 2008. Sequencing of the CHIKV strains revealed 96.8% amino acid similarity, including an unusual 7 residue deletion in the nsP3 protein of the Asian strain. CHIKV replication in cells and Aedes mosquitoes was measured by virus titration. There were no differences in mammalian cell lines. The ECSA strain reached significantly higher titres in Ae. albopictus cells (C6/36). Both CHIKV strains infected Ae. albopictus mosquitoes at a higher rate than Ae. aegypti, but when compared to each other, the ECSA strain had much higher midgut infection and replication, and salivary gland dissemination, while the Asian strain infected Ae. aegypti at higher rates.

Conclusions

The greater ability of the ECSA strain to replicate in Ae. albopictus may explain why it spread far more quickly and extensively in humans in Malaysia than the Asian strain ever did, particularly in rural areas where Ae. albopictus predominates. Intergenotypic genetic differences were found at E1, E2, and nsP3 sites previously reported to be determinants of host adaptability in alphaviruses. Transmission of CHIKV in humans is influenced by virus strain and vector species, which has implications for regions with more than one circulating CHIKV genotype and Aedes species.     

Seroprevalence of Chikungunya virus and living conditions in Feira de Santana,Bahia-Brazil

BackgroundChikungunya is an arbovirus, transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes, which emerged in the Americas in 2013 and spread rapidly to almost every country on this continent. In Brazil, where the first cases were detected in 2014, it currently has reached all regions of this country and more than 900,000 cases were reported. The clinical spectrum of chikungunya ranges from an acute self-limiting form to disabling chronic forms. The purpose of this study was to estimate the seroprevalence of chikungunya infection in a large Brazilian city and investigate the association between viral circulation and living condition.Methodology/principal findingsWe conducted a population-based ecological study in selected Sentinel Areas (SA) through household interviews and a serologic survey in 2016/2017. The sample was of 1,981 individuals randomly selected. The CHIKV seroprevalence was 22.1% (17.1 IgG, 2.3 IgM, and 1.4 IgG and IgM) and varied between SA from 2.0% to 70.5%. The seroprevalence was significantly lower in SA with high living conditions compared to SA with low living condition. There was a positive association between CHIKV seroprevalence and population density (r = 0.2389; p = 0.02033).Conclusions/significanceThe seroprevalence in this city was 2.6 times lower than the 57% observed in a study conducted in the epicentre of the CHIKV epidemic of this same urban centre. So, the herd immunity in this general population, after four years of circulation of this agent is relatively low. It indicates that CHIKV transmission may persist in that city, either in endemic form or in the form of a new epidemic, because the vector infestation is persistent. Besides, the significantly lower seroprevalences in SA of higher Living Condition suggest that beyond the surveillance of the disease, vector control and specific actions of basic sanitation, the reduction of the incidence of this infection also depends on the improvement of the general living conditions of the population.     

A comparison of mosquito densities,weather and infection rates of Aedes aegypti during the first epidemics of Chikungunya (2014) and Zika (2016) in areas with and without vector control in Puerto Rico

In Puerto Rico, the first records of the transmission of Chikungunya (CHIKV) and Zika (ZIKV) viruses were confirmed in May 2014 and December 2015, respectively. Transmission of CHIKV peaked in September 2014, whereas that of ZIKV peaked in August 2016. The emergence of these mosquito‐transmitted arboviruses in the context of a lack of human population immunity allowed observations of whether the outbreaks were associated with Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae) densities and weather. Mosquito density was monitored weekly in four communities using sentinel autocidal gravid ovitraps (AGO traps) during 2016 in order to provide data to be compared with the findings of a previous study carried out during the 2014 CHIKV epidemic. Findings in two communities protected against Ae. aegypti using mass AGO trapping (three traps per house in most houses) were compared with those in two nearby communities without vector control. Mosquito pools were collected to detect viral RNA of ZIKV, CHIKV and dengue virus. In areas without vector control, mosquito densities and rates of ZIKV detection in 2016 were significantly higher, similarly to those observed for CHIKV in 2014. The density of Ae. aegypti in treated sites was less than two females/trap/week, which is similar to the putative adult female threshold for CHIKV transmission. No significant differences in mosquito density or infection rates with ZIKV and CHIKV at the same sites between years were observed. Although 2016 was significantly wetter, mosquito densities were similar.     

Quantifying the spatial dimension of dengue virus epidemic spread within a tropical urban environment

Background

Dengue infection spread in naive populations occurs in an explosive and widespread fashion primarily due to the absence of population herd immunity, the population dynamics and dispersal of Ae. aegypti, and the movement of individuals within the urban space. Knowledge on the relative contribution of such factors to the spatial dimension of dengue virus spread has been limited. In the present study we analyzed the spatio-temporal pattern of a large dengue virus-2 (DENV-2) outbreak that affected the Australian city of Cairns (north Queensland) in 2003, quantified the relationship between dengue transmission and distance to the epidemic''s index case (IC), evaluated the effects of indoor residual spraying (IRS) on the odds of dengue infection, and generated recommendations for city-wide dengue surveillance and control.

Methods and Findings

We retrospectively analyzed data from 383 DENV-2 confirmed cases and 1,163 IRS applications performed during the 25-week epidemic period. Spatial (local k-function, angular wavelets) and space-time (Knox test) analyses quantified the intensity and directionality of clustering of dengue cases, whereas a semi-parametric Bayesian space-time regression assessed the impact of IRS and spatial autocorrelation in the odds of weekly dengue infection. About 63% of the cases clustered up to 800 m around the IC''s house. Most cases were distributed in the NW-SE axis as a consequence of the spatial arrangement of blocks within the city and, possibly, the prevailing winds. Space-time analysis showed that DENV-2 infection spread rapidly, generating 18 clusters (comprising 65% of all cases), and that these clusters varied in extent as a function of their distance to the IC''s residence. IRS applications had a significant protective effect in the further occurrence of dengue cases, but only when they reached coverage of 60% or more of the neighboring premises of a house.

Conclusion

By applying sound statistical analysis to a very detailed dataset from one of the largest outbreaks that affected the city of Cairns in recent times, we not only described the spread of dengue virus with high detail but also quantified the spatio-temporal dimension of dengue virus transmission within this complex urban environment. In areas susceptible to non-periodic dengue epidemics, effective disease prevention and control would depend on the prompt response to introduced cases. We foresee that some of the results and recommendations derived from our study may also be applicable to other areas currently affected or potentially subject to dengue epidemics.     

Utilization of an Eilat Virus-Based Chimera for Serological Detection of Chikungunya Infection

In December of 2013, chikungunya virus (CHIKV), an alphavirus in the family Togaviridae, was introduced to the island of Saint Martin in the Caribbean, resulting in the first autochthonous cases reported in the Americas. As of January 2015, local and imported CHIKV has been reported in 50 American countries with over 1.1 million suspected cases. CHIKV causes a severe arthralgic disease for which there are no approved vaccines or therapeutics. Furthermore, the lack of a commercially available, sensitive, and affordable diagnostic assay limits surveillance and control efforts. To address this issue, we utilized an insect-specific alphavirus, Eilat virus (EILV), to develop a diagnostic antigen that does not require biosafety containment facilities to produce. We demonstrated that EILV/CHIKV replicates to high titers in insect cells and can be applied directly in enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays without inactivation, resulting in highly sensitive detection of recent and past CHIKV infection, and outperforming traditional antigen preparations.     

褐飞虱持续暴发成因——以江西泰和县为例

为了明确泰和县近年来晚稻田褐飞虱Nilaparvata lugens(Stl)连年暴发的规律。通过分析泰和县2008—2013年褐飞虱的田间调查及灯诱数据,并结合气象条件,研究了泰和县晚稻田褐飞虱暴发的主要影响因素。结果表明:(1)危害早稻田的褐飞虱以2、3代为主,其田间种群数量的多少主要受春季迁入虫量的限制,本地早稻收割后的滞留虫源对晚稻种群数量的影响很小。(2)危害晚稻田的褐飞虱以5、6代为主,后期迁入虫量、秋季温度以及晚稻田初期外来迁入虫量是影响晚稻田后期暴发的关键因子。(3)不同年份间晚稻田褐飞虱暴发类型不同。2008和2009年属后期迁入虫量与"暖秋"共同影响类型;2010年是"暖秋"影响类型;2011和2012年是后期迁入虫量影响类型;2013年是晚稻田早期迁入虫量积累影响类型。后期迁入虫量、秋季温度以及晚稻田早期迁入虫量是导致泰和县晚稻田褐飞虱连年暴发的主要原因。这些结果为褐飞虱暴发规律的阐明及可持续治理提供了理论依据和参考价值。     

Antigenic Variation of East/Central/South African and Asian Chikungunya Virus Genotypes in Neutralization by Immune Sera

BackgroundChikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a re-emerging mosquito-borne virus which causes epidemics of fever, severe joint pain and rash. Between 2005 and 2010, the East/Central/South African (ECSA) genotype was responsible for global explosive outbreaks across India, the Indian Ocean and Southeast Asia. From late 2013, Asian genotype CHIKV has caused outbreaks in the Americas. The characteristics of cross-antibody efficacy and epitopes are poorly understood.Conclusion/SignificanceImmune serum from humans infected with CHIKV of either ECSA or Asian genotypes showed differences in binding and neutralization characteristics. These findings have implications for the continued outbreaks of co-circulating CHIKV genotypes and effective design of vaccines and diagnostic serological assays.     

Short report: Introduction of chikungunya virus ECSA genotype into the Brazilian Midwest and its dispersion through the Americas

Since introduction into Brazil in 2014, chikungunya virus (CHIKV) has presented sustained transmission, although much is unknown about its circulation in the midwestern states. Here, we analyze 24 novel partial and near complete CHIKV genomes from Cuiaba, an urban metropolis located in the Brazilian midwestern state of Mato Grosso (MT).Nanopore technology was used for sequencing CHIKV complete genomes. Phylogenetic and epidemiological approaches were used to explore the recent spatio-temporal evolution and spread of the CHIKV-ECSA genotype in Midwest Brazil as well as in the Americas.Epidemiological data revealed a reduction in the number of reported cases over 2018–2020, likely as a consequence of a gradual accumulation of herd-immunity. Phylogeographic reconstructions revealed that at least two independent introductions of the ECSA lineage occurred in MT from a dispersion event originating in the northeastern region and suggest that the midwestern Brazilian region appears to have acted as a source of virus transmission towards Paraguay, a bordering South American country.Our results show a complex dynamic of transmission between epidemic seasons and suggest a possible role of Brazil as a source for international dispersion of the CHIKV-ECSA genotype to other countries in the Americas.     

Chikungunya Virus and Aedes Mosquitoes: Saliva Is Infectious as soon as Two Days after Oral Infection

Background

Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus are potential vectors of chikungunya virus (CHIKV). The recent CHIKV outbreaks were caused by a new variant characterized by a mutation in the E1 glycoprotein gene (E1-226V) which has favored a better transmissibility by Ae. albopictus. As Ae. albopictus tends to replace Ae. aegypti in many regions, one question remained: is Ae. albopictus as efficient as Ae. aegypti to transmit the variant E1-226V of CHIKV?

Methodology and Findings

We infected orally both species with the variant E1-226V and estimated the infection, the viral dissemination, and the transmission rate by real time RT-PCR. Additionally, we used an in vitro assay to determine the amount of virus delivered by mosquitoes in their saliva. We found that Ae. aegypti as well as Ae. albopictus ensured a high replication of the virus which underwent an efficient dissemination as detectable in the salivary glands at day 2 post-infection (pi). Infectious CHIKV particles were delivered by salivary glands from day 2 with a maximum at day 6 pi for Ae. albopictus (10^3.3 PFU) and day 7 pi for Ae. aegypti (10^2.5 PFU).

Conclusions

Ae. albopictus is slightly more efficient than Ae. aegypti to transmit the variant E1-226V of CHIKV. These results will help to design an efficient vector control to limit transmission as soon as the first human cases are diagnosed.     

Characterization of Chikungunya Virus-Like Particles

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is becoming a global concern due to the increasing number of outbreaks throughout the world and the absence of any CHIKV-specific vaccine or treatment. Virus-like particles (VLPs) are multistructured proteins that mimic the organization and conformation of native viruses but lack the viral genome. They are noninfectious and potentially safer vaccine candidates. Recent studies demonstrated that the yield of CHIKV VLPs varies depending on the strains, despite the 95% amino acid similarity of the strains. This might be due to the codon usage, since protein expression is differently controlled by different organisms. We optimized the region encoding CHIKV structural proteins, C-E3-E2-6k-E1, inserted it into a mammalian expression vector, and used the resulting construct to transfect 293 cells. We detected 50-kDa proteins corresponding to E1 and/or E2 in the cell lysate and the supernatant. Transmission electron microscopy revealed spherical particles with a 50- to 60-nm diameter in the supernatant that resembled the native CHIKV virions. The buoyant density of the VLPs was 1.23 g/mL, and the yield was 20 µg purified VLPs per 10⁸ cells. The VLPs aggregated when mixed with convalescent sera from chikungunya patients, indicating that their antigenicity is similar to that of native CHIKV. Antibodies elicited with the VLPs were capable of detecting native CHIKV, demonstrating that the VLPs retain immunogenicity similar to that of the native virion. These results indicated that CHIKV VLPs are morphologically, antigenically, and immunologically similar to the native CHIKV, suggesting that they have potential for use in chikungunya vaccines.     

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Smear-Positive Tuberculosis in the Sidama Zone,Southern Ethiopia

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is a disease of public health concern, with a varying distribution across settings depending on socio-economic status, HIV burden, availability and performance of the health system. Ethiopia is a country with a high burden of TB, with regional variations in TB case notification rates (CNRs). However, TB program reports are often compiled and reported at higher administrative units that do not show the burden at lower units, so there is limited information about the spatial distribution of the disease. We therefore aim to assess the spatial distribution and presence of the spatio-temporal clustering of the disease in different geographic settings over 10 years in the Sidama Zone in southern Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective space–time and spatial analysis were carried out at the kebele level (the lowest administrative unit within a district) to identify spatial and space-time clusters of smear-positive pulmonary TB (PTB). Scan statistics, Global Moran’s I, and Getis and Ordi (Gi*) statistics were all used to help analyze the spatial distribution and clusters of the disease across settings.

Results

A total of 22,545 smear-positive PTB cases notified over 10 years were used for spatial analysis. In a purely spatial analysis, we identified the most likely cluster of smear-positive PTB in 192 kebeles in eight districts (RR= 2, p<0.001), with 12,155 observed and 8,668 expected cases. The Gi* statistic also identified the clusters in the same areas, and the spatial clusters showed stability in most areas in each year during the study period. The space-time analysis also detected the most likely cluster in 193 kebeles in the same eight districts (RR= 1.92, p<0.001), with 7,584 observed and 4,738 expected cases in 2003-2012.

Conclusion

The study found variations in CNRs and significant spatio-temporal clusters of smear-positive PTB in the Sidama Zone. The findings can be used to guide TB control programs to devise effective TB control strategies for the geographic areas characterized by the highest CNRs. Further studies are required to understand the factors associated with clustering based on individual level locations and investigation of cases.     

Socio-economic and Climate Factors Associated with Dengue Fever Spatial Heterogeneity: A Worked Example in New Caledonia

Background/Objectives

Understanding the factors underlying the spatio-temporal distribution of infectious diseases provides useful information regarding their prevention and control. Dengue fever spatio-temporal patterns result from complex interactions between the virus, the host, and the vector. These interactions can be influenced by environmental conditions. Our objectives were to analyse dengue fever spatial distribution over New Caledonia during epidemic years, to identify some of the main underlying factors, and to predict the spatial evolution of dengue fever under changing climatic conditions, at the 2100 horizon.

Methods

We used principal component analysis and support vector machines to analyse and model the influence of climate and socio-economic variables on the mean spatial distribution of 24,272 dengue cases reported from 1995 to 2012 in thirty-three communes of New Caledonia. We then modelled and estimated the future evolution of dengue incidence rates using a regional downscaling of future climate projections.

Results

The spatial distribution of dengue fever cases is highly heterogeneous. The variables most associated with this observed heterogeneity are the mean temperature, the mean number of people per premise, and the mean percentage of unemployed people, a variable highly correlated with people''s way of life. Rainfall does not seem to play an important role in the spatial distribution of dengue cases during epidemics. By the end of the 21st century, if temperature increases by approximately 3°C, mean incidence rates during epidemics could double.

Conclusion

In New Caledonia, a subtropical insular environment, both temperature and socio-economic conditions are influencing the spatial spread of dengue fever. Extension of this study to other countries worldwide should improve the knowledge about climate influence on dengue burden and about the complex interplay between different factors. This study presents a methodology that can be used as a step by step guide to model dengue spatial heterogeneity in other countries.     

ISG15 is critical in the control of Chikungunya virus infection independent of UbE1L mediated conjugation

Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is a re-emerging alphavirus that has caused significant disease in the Indian Ocean region since 2005. During this outbreak, in addition to fever, rash and arthritis, severe cases of CHIKV infection have been observed in infants. Challenging the notion that the innate immune response in infants is immature or defective, we demonstrate that both human infants and neonatal mice generate a robust type I interferon (IFN) response during CHIKV infection that contributes to, but is insufficient for, the complete control of infection. To characterize the mechanism by which type I IFNs control CHIKV infection, we evaluated the role of ISG15 and defined it as a central player in the host response, as neonatal mice lacking ISG15 were profoundly susceptible to CHIKV infection. Surprisingly, UbE1L^−/− mice, which lack the ISG15 E1 enzyme and therefore are unable to form ISG15 conjugates, displayed no increase in lethality following CHIKV infection, thus pointing to a non-classical role for ISG15. No differences in viral loads were observed between wild-type (WT) and ISG15^−/− mice, however, a dramatic increase in proinflammatory cytokines and chemokines was observed in ISG15^−/− mice, suggesting that the innate immune response to CHIKV contributes to their lethality. This study provides new insight into the control of CHIKV infection, and establishes a new model for how ISG15 functions as an immunomodulatory molecule in the blunting of potentially pathologic levels of innate effector molecules during the host response to viral infection.     

Modeling the Cost-Effectiveness of the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) System: Meningitis in Burkina Faso

Background

Effective surveillance for infectious diseases is an essential component of public health. There are few studies estimating the cost-effectiveness of starting or improving disease surveillance. We present a cost-effectiveness analysis the Integrated Disease Surveillance and Response (IDSR) strategy in Africa.

Methodology/Principal Findings

To assess the impact of the IDSR in Africa, we used pre- and post- IDSR meningococcal meningitis surveillance data from Burkina Faso (1996–2002 and 2003–2007). IDSR implementation was correlated with a median reduction of 2 weeks to peak of outbreaks (25^th percentile 1 week; 75^th percentile 4 weeks). IDSR was also correlated with a reduction of 43 meningitis cases per 100,000 (25^th–40: 75^th-129). Assuming the correlations between reductions in time to peak of outbreaks and cases are related, the cost-effectiveness of IDSR was $23 per case averted (25^th-$30; 75^th - cost saving), and $98 per meningitis-related death averted (25^th-$140: 75^th – cost saving).

Conclusions/Significance

We cannot absolutely claim that the measured differences were due to IDSR. We believe, however, that it is reasonable to claim that IDSR can improve the cost-effectiveness of public health surveillance.