The Evolution of the Epidemic of Charcoal-Burning Suicide in Taiwan: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis

Background

An epidemic of carbon monoxide poisoning suicide by burning barbecue charcoal has occurred in East Asia in the last decade. We investigated the spatial and temporal evolution of the epidemic to assess its impact on the epidemiology of suicide in Taiwan.

Methods and Findings

Age-standardised rates of suicide and undetermined death by charcoal burning were mapped across townships (median population aged 15 y or over = 27,000) in Taiwan for the periods 1999–2001, 2002–2004, and 2005–2007. Smoothed standardised mortality ratios of charcoal-burning and non-charcoal-burning suicide and undetermined death across townships were estimated using Bayesian hierarchical models. Trends in overall and method-specific rates were compared between urban and rural areas for the period 1991–2007. The epidemic of charcoal-burning suicide in Taiwan emerged more prominently in urban than rural areas, without a single point of origin, and rates of charcoal-burning suicide remained highest in the metropolitan regions throughout the epidemic. The rural excess in overall suicide rates prior to 1998 diminished as rates of charcoal-burning suicide increased to a greater extent in urban than rural areas.

Conclusions

The charcoal-burning epidemic has altered the geography of suicide in Taiwan. The observed pattern and its changes in the past decade suggest that widespread media coverage of this suicide method and easy access to barbecue charcoal may have contributed to the epidemic. Prevention strategies targeted at these factors, such as introducing and enforcing guidelines on media reporting and restricting access to charcoal, may help tackle the increase of charcoal-burning suicides. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Variable Classification of Drug-Intoxication Suicides across US States: A Partial Artifact of Forensics?

Background

The 21^st-century epidemic of pharmaceutical and other drug-intoxication deaths in the United States (US) has likely precipitated an increase in misclassified, undercounted suicides. Drug-intoxication suicides are highly prone to be misclassified as accident or undetermined. Misclassification adversely impacts suicide and other injury mortality surveillance, etiologic understanding, prevention, and hence clinical and public health policy formation and practice.

Objective

To evaluate whether observed variation in the relative magnitude of drug-intoxication suicides across US states is a partial artifact of the scope and quality of toxicological testing and type of medicolegal death investigation system.

Methods

This was a national, state-based, ecological study of 111,583 drug-intoxication fatalities, whose manner of death was suicide, accident, or undetermined. The proportion of (nonhomicide) drug-intoxication deaths classified by medical examiners and coroners as suicide was analyzed relative to the proportion of death certificates citing one or more specific drugs and two types of state death investigation systems. Our model incorporated five sociodemographic covariates. Data covered the period 2008–2010, and derived from NCHS’s Multiple Cause-of-Death public use files.

Results

Across states, the proportion of drug-intoxication suicides ranged from 0.058 in Louisiana to 0.286 in South Dakota and the rate from 1 per 100,000 population in North Dakota to 4 in New Mexico. There was a low correlation between combined accident and undetermined drug-intoxication death rates and corresponding suicide rates (Spearman’s rho = 0.38; p<0.01). Citation of 1 or more specific drugs on the death certificate was positively associated with the relative odds of a state classifying a nonhomicide drug-intoxication death as suicide rather than accident or undetermined, adjusting for region and type of state death investigation system (odds ratio, 1.062; 95% CI,1.016–1.110). Region, too, was a significant predictor. Relative to the South, a 10% increase in drug citation was associated with 43% (95% CI,11%-83%), 41% (95% CI,7%-85%), and 33% (95% CI,1%-76%) higher odds of a suicide classification in the West, Midwest, and Northeast, respectively.

Conclusion

Large interstate variation in the relative magnitude of nonhomicide drug-intoxication deaths classified as suicide by medical examiners and coroners in the US appears partially an artifact of geographic region and degree of toxicological assessment in the case ascertainment process. Etiologic understanding and prevention of drug-induced suicides and other drug-intoxication deaths first require rigorous standardization involving accurate concepts, definitions, and case ascertainment.     

Modifiable Prognostic Factors of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients with Non-Surgical Treatment

Background & aims

Current hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) staging systems only use baseline characteristics to predict outcome. We aimed to explore modifiable factors of the prognosis in HCC cases had undergone non-surgical treatment.

Methods

All HCC cases in Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial hospital in southern Taiwan from 2002 to 2012 must met all below criteria: (1) met international diagnostic guidelines, (2) underwent the initial treatments in our hospital (3) treated by non-surgical treatment modalities and (4) survived more than two years, with follow-up time longer than five years.

Results

A total 698 patients were enrolled: 451 (24.6%, group A) survivied between 2 to 5 years, and 247 (13.5%, group B) had survived > 5 years. Aside from liver function reserve and BCLC stages, four interventional factors: initial treatment modality, outcomes of 1^st or 2^nd treatment, and anti-viral therapy to chronic viral hepatitis were associated with prognosis. After propensity score matching, multiple logistic regression of 223 well-matched pairs showed that recurrence within one year after 1^st treatment (OR: 2.17, 95% CI: 1.35–3.48), incomplete 2^nd treatment (2.01, 1.27–3.17) and absence of anti-viral agents (1.68, 1.09–2.59) were independent poor prognostic factors.

Conclusion

Complete treatment and anti-viral agents to chronic hepatitis were both independent modifiable prognostic factors of HCC patients had undergone non-surgical treatment. Based on these findings, timely treatment to achieve maximal locoregional control and anti-viral treatment should be provided as possible.     

Bromocriptine Mesylate Attenuates Amyotrophic Lateral Sclerosis: A Phase 2a,Randomized, Double-Blind,Placebo-Controlled Research in Japanese Patients

Objective

Bromocriptine mesylate (BRC), a dopamine D2 receptor agonist has been shown to confer neuroprotection, sustained motor function and slowed disease progression in mouse models of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) Here we report a first in human trial in ALS.

Design

A multicenter, Riluzole add-on, randomized, double-blind, placebo controlled 102-week extension BRC clinical trial.

Methods

The trial was conducted between January 2009 and March 2012 on 36 Japanese ALS patients. A 12-week treatment with Riluzole observational period was followed by combined treatment (Riluzole + BRC; n = 29 or Riluzole + placebo; n = 7). The dosing commenced at 1.25 mg/day increasing in steps at two weeks intervals to a maximum of 15 mg/day. The efficacy of BRC was evaluated by comparing BRC and placebo groups upon completion of stepwise dosing at 14 weeks 2 points (1^st endpoint) and upon completion or discontinuation of the study (2^nd endpoint) of the dosing.

Results

Statistics analyses revealed a marginal BRC treatment efficacy with P≦20%to placebo by 1^st and 2^nd endpoint analysis. In the 1^st endpoint analysis, BRC group was significantly effective on the scores of ALSAQ40-communicaton (P = 1.2%), eating and drinking (P = 2.2%), ALSFRS-R total (P = 17.6%), grip strength (P = 19.8%) compared to the placebo group. In the 2^nd endpoint analysis, differences between the scores of Limb Norris Scale (P = 18.3%), ALSAQ40-communication (P = 11.9%), eating and drinking (P = 13.6%), and neck forward-bent test (P = 15.4%) of BRC group were detected between the two groups. There was no significant difference between the treatment groups for adverse events or serious drug reactions incidence.

Conclusions

BRC sustains motoneuronal function at least in part through BRC treatment. Further analysis involving a Phase 2b or 3 clinical trial is required but BRC currently shows promise for ALS treatment.

Trial Registration

UMIN Clinical Trials UMIN000008527     

Efficacy of a Community-Based Physical Activity Program KM2H2 for Stroke and Heart Attack Prevention among Senior Hypertensive Patients: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Phase-II Trial

Objective

To evaluate the efficacy of the program Keep Moving toward Healthy Heart and Healthy Brain (KM2H²) in encouraging physical activities for the prevention of heart attack and stroke among hypertensive patients enrolled in the Community-Based Hypertension Control Program (CBHCP).

Design

Cluster randomized controlled trial with three waves of longitudinal assessments at baseline, 3 and 6 months post intervention.

Setting

Community-based and patient-centered self-care for behavioral intervention in urban settings of China.

Participants

A total of 450 participants diagnosed with hypertension from 12 community health centers in Wuhan, China were recruited, and were randomly assigned by center to receive either KM2H² plus standard CBHCP care (6 centers and 232 patients) or the standard care only (6 centers and 218 patients).

Intervention

KM2H² is a behavioral intervention guided by the Transtheoretical Model, the Model of Personalized Medicine and Social Capital Theory. It consists of six intervention sessions and two booster sessions engineered in a progressive manner. The purpose is to motivate and maintain physical activities for the prevention of heart attack and stroke.

Outcome Measures

Heart attack and stroke (clinically diagnosed, primary outcome), blood pressure (measured, secondary outcome), and physical activity (self-report, tertiary outcome) were assessed at the individual level during the baseline, 3- and 6-month post-intervention.

Results

Relative to the standard care, receiving KM2H² was associated with significant reductions in the incidence of heart attack (3.60% vs. 7.03%, p < .05) and stroke (5.11% vs. 9.90%, p<0.05), and moderate reduction in blood pressure (-3.72mmHg in DBP and -2.92 mmHg in DBP) at 6-month post-intervention; and significant increases in physical activity at 3- (d = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.21, 0.85) and 6-month (d = 0.45, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.85) post-intervention, respectively.

Conclusion

The program KM2H² is efficacious to reduce the risk of heart attack and stroke among senior patients who are on anti-hypertensive medication. Findings of this study provide solid data supporting a formal phase-III trial to establish the effectiveness of KM2H² for use in community settings for prevention.

Trial Registration

ISRCTN Register ISRCTN12608966     

Information Accessibility of the Charcoal Burning Suicide Method in Mainland China

Background

There has been a marked rise in suicide by charcoal burning (CB) in some East Asian countries but little is known about its incidence in mainland China. We examined media-reported CB suicides and the availability of online information about the method in mainland China.

Methods

We extracted and analyzed data for i) the characteristics and trends of fatal and nonfatal CB suicides reported by mainland Chinese newspapers (1998–2014); ii) trends and geographic variations in online searches using keywords relating to CB suicide (2011–2014); and iii) the content of Internet search results.

Results

109 CB suicide attempts (89 fatal and 20 nonfatal) were reported by newspapers in 13 out of the 31 provinces or provincial-level-municipalities in mainland China. There were increasing trends in the incidence of reported CB suicides and in online searches using CB-related keywords. The province-level search intensities were correlated with CB suicide rates (Spearman’s correlation coefficient = 0.43 [95% confidence interval: 0.08–0.68]). Two-thirds of the web links retrieved using the search engine contained detailed information about the CB suicide method, of which 15% showed pro-suicide attitudes, and the majority (86%) did not encourage people to seek help.

Limitations

The incidence of CB suicide was based on newspaper reports and likely to be underestimated.

Conclusions

Mental health and suicide prevention professionals in mainland China should be alert to the increased use of this highly lethal suicide method. Better surveillance and intervention strategies need to be developed and implemented.     

A Century of Tuberculosis Epidemiology in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere: The Differential Impact of Control Interventions

Background

Cape Town has one of the highest TB burdens of any city in the world. In 1900 the City of Cape Town, New York City and London had high mortality of tuberculosis (TB). Throughout the 20th century contemporaneous public health measures including screening, diagnosis and treatment were implemented in all three settings. Mandatory notification of TB and vital status enabled comparison of disease burden trajectories.

Methods

TB mortality, notification and case fatality rates were calculated from 1912 to 2012 using annual TB notifications, TB death certifications and population estimates. Notification rates were stratified by age and in Cape Town by HIV status (from 2009 onwards).

Results

Pre-chemotherapy, TB mortality and notification rates declined steadily in New York and London but remained high in Cape Town. Following introduction of combination chemotherapy, mean annual case fatality dropped from 45–60% to below 10% in all three settings. Mortality and notification rates subsequently declined, although Cape Town notifications did not decline as far as those in New York or London and returned to pre-chemotherapy levels by 1980. The proportional contribution of childhood TB diminished in New York and London but remained high in Cape Town. The advent of the Cape Town HIV-epidemic in the 1990s was associated with a further two-fold increase in incidence. In 2012, notification rates among HIV-negatives remained at pre-chemotherapy levels.

Conclusions

TB control was achieved in New York and London but failed in Cape Town. The TB disease burden trajectories started diverging before the availability of combination chemotherapy in 1952 and further diverged following the HIV epidemic in 1990. Chemotherapy impacted case fatality but not transmission, evidenced by on-going high childhood TB rates. Currently endemic TB results from high on-going transmission, which has been exacerbated by the HIV epidemic. TB control will require reducing transmission, which is inexorably linked to prevailing socio-economic factors.     

Dating of Pregnancy in First versus Second Trimester in Relation to Post-Term Birth Rate: A Cohort Study

Objectives

To evaluate in a national standardised setting whether the performance of ultrasound dating during the first rather than the second trimester of pregnancy had consequences regarding the definition of pre- and post-term birth rates.

Methods

A cohort study of 8,551 singleton pregnancies with spontaneous delivery was performed from 2006 to 2012 at Copenhagen University Hospital, Holbæk, Denmark. We determined the duration of pregnancy calculated by last menstrual period, crown rump length (CRL), biparietal diameter (1^st trimester), BPD (2^nd trimester), and head circumference and compared mean and median durations, the mean differences, the systematic discrepancies, and the percentages of pre-term and post-term pregnancies in relation to each method. The primary outcomes were post-term and pre-term birth rates defined by different dating methods.

Results

The change from use of second to first trimester measurements for dating was associated with a significant increase in the rate of post-term deliveries from 2.1–2.9% and a significant decrease in the rate of pre-term deliveries from 5.4–4.6% caused by systematic discrepancies. Thereby 25.1% would pass 41 weeks when GA is defined by CRL and 17.3% when BPD (2^nd trimester) is used. Calibration for these discrepancies resulted in a lower post-term birth rate, from 3.1–1.4%, when first compared to second trimester dating was used.

Conclusions

Systematic discrepancies were identified when biometric formulas were used to determine duration of pregnancy. This should be corrected in clinical practice to avoid an overestimation of post-term birth and unnecessary inductions when first trimester formulas are used.     

Insulin Resistance Change and Antiretroviral Therapy Exposure in HIV-Infected and Uninfected Rwandan Women: A Longitudinal Analysis

Background

We longitudinally assessed predictors of insulin resistance (IR) change among HIV-uninfected and HIV-infected (ART-initiators and ART-non-initiators) Rwandan women.

Methodology

HIV-infected (HIV+) and uninfected (HIV-) women provided demographic and clinical measures: age, body mass index (BMI) in Kg/(height in meters)², Fat-Mass (FMI) and Fat-Free-Mass (FFMI) index, fasting serum glucose and insulin. Homeostasis Model Assessment (HOMA) was calculated to estimate IR change over time in log₁₀ transformed HOMA measured at study enrollment or prior to ART initiation in 3 groups: HIV- (n = 194), HIV+ ART-non-initiators (n=95) and HIV+ ART-initiators (n=371). ANCOVA linear regression models of change in log₁₀-HOMA were fit with all models included the first log₁₀ HOMA as a predictor.

Results

Mean±SD log₁₀-HOMA was -0.18±0.39 at the 1^st and -0.21±0.41 at the 2^nd measure, with mean change of 0.03±0.44. In the final model (all women) BMI at 1^st HOMA measure (0.014; 95% CI=0.006-0.021 per kg/m²; p<0.001) and change in BMI from 1^st to 2^nd measure (0.024; 95% CI=0.013-0.035 per kg/m²; p<0.001) predicted HOMA change. When restricted to subjects with FMI measures, FMI at 1^st HOMA measure (0.020; 95% CI=0.010-0.030 per kg/m²; p<0.001) and change in FMI from 1^st to 2^nd measure (0.032; 95% CI=0.020-0.043 per kg/m²; p<0.0001) predicted change in HOMA. While ART use did not predict change in log₁₀-HOMA, untreated HIV+ women had a significant decline in IR over time. Use or duration of AZT, d4T and EFV was not associated with HOMA change in HIV+ women.

Conclusions

Baseline BMI and change in BMI, and in particular fat mass and change in fat mass predicted insulin resistance change over ~3 years in HIV-infected and uninfected Rwandan women. Exposure to specific ART (d4T, AZT, EFV) did not predict insulin resistance change in ART-treated HIV-infected Rwandan women.     

Effectiveness of a Pilot Partner Notification Program for New HIV Cases in Barcelona,Spain

Background

An estimated 30% of HIV cases in the European Union are not aware of their serological status. This study aimed to assess the effectiveness of a pilot HIV partner notification program.

Methods

HIV cases diagnosed between January 2012 and June 2013 at two healthcare settings in Barcelona were invited to participate in a prospective survey. We identified process and outcome measures to evaluate this partner notification program, including the number of partners identified per interviewed index case, the proportion of partners tested for HIV as a result of the partner notification, and the proportion of new HIV diagnoses among their sex or needle-sharing partners.

Results

Of the 125 index cases contacted, 108 (86.4%) agreed to provide information about partners. A total of 199 sexual partners were identified (1.8 partners per interviewed index case). HIV outcome was already known for 58 partners (70.7% were known to be HIV-positive), 141 partners were tested as result of partner notification, and 26 were newly diagnosed with HIV. The case-finding effectiveness of the program was 18.4%.

Conclusion

This pilot program provides evidence of the effectiveness of a partner notification program implemented in healthcare settings. This active partner notification program was feasible, acceptable to the user, and identified a high proportion of HIV-infected patients previously unaware of their status.     

Potentially Modifiable Factors Associated with Death of Infants and Children with Severe Pneumonia Routinely Managed in District Hospitals in Malawi

Objective

To investigate recognised co-morbidities and clinical management associated with inpatient pneumonia mortality in Malawian district hospitals.

Methods

Prospective cohort study, of patient records, carried out in Malawi between 1^st October 2000 and 30^th June 2003. The study included all children aged 0-59 months admitted to the paediatric wards in sixteen district hospitals throughout Malawi with severe and very severe pneumonia. We compared individual factors between those that survived (n = 14 076) and those that died (n = 1 633).

Results

From logistic regression analysis, predictors of death in hospital, adjusted for age, sex and severity grade included comorbid conditions of meningitis (OR =2.49, 95% CI 1.50-4.15), malnutrition (OR =2.37, 95% CI 1.94-2.88) and severe anaemia (OR =1.41, 95% CI 1.03-1.92). Requiring supplementary oxygen (OR =2.16, 95% CI 1.85-2.51) and intravenous fluids (OR =3.02, 95% CI 2.13-4.28) were associated with death while blood transfusion was no longer significant (OR =1.10, 95% CI 0.77-1.57) when the model included severe anaemia.

Conclusions

This study identified a number of challenges to improve outcome for Malawian infants and children hospitalised with pneumonia. These included improved assessment of co-morbidities and more rigorous application of standard case management.     

The Uptake of Screening for Type 2 Diabetes and Prediabetes by Means of Glycated Hemoglobin versus the Oral Glucose Tolerance Test among 18 to 60-Year-Old People of South Asian Origin: A Comparative Study

Background

Direct comparisons of the effect of a glycated haemoglobin measurement or an oral glucose tolerance test on the uptake and yield of screening in people of South Asian origin have not been made. We evaluated this in 18 to 60-year-old South Asian Surinamese.

Materials and Methods

We invited 3173 South Asian Surinamese for an oral glucose tolerance test between June 18^th 2009- December 31^st 2009 and 2012 for a glycated hemoglobin measurement between April 19^th 2010-November 11^th, 2010. Participants were selected from 48 general practices in The Hague, The Netherlands. We used mixed models regression to analyse differences in response and participation between the groups. We described differences in characteristics of participants and calculated the yield as the percentage of all cases identified, if all invitees had been offered screening with the specified method.

Results

The response and participation in the glycated hemoglobin group was higher than in the group offered an oral glucose tolerance test (participation 23.9 vs. 19.3; OR: 1.30, 95%-confidence interval1.01–1.69). After adjustment for age and sex, characteristics of participants were similar for both groups. Overall, glycated hemoglobin identified a similar percentage of type 2 diabetes cases but a higher percentage of prediabetes cases, in the population than the oral glucose tolerance test.

Conclusion

We found that glycated hemoglobin and the oral glucose tolerance test may be equally efficient for identification of type 2 diabetes in populations of South Asian origin. However, for programs aimed at identifying people at high risk of type 2 diabetes (i.e. with prediabetes), the oral glucose tolerance test may be a less efficient choice than glycated hemoglobin.     

Predictors of Study Attrition in a Randomized Controlled Trial Evaluating a Perinatal Home-Visiting Program with Mothers with Psychosocial Vulnerabilities

Objective

Randomised controlled trials evaluating perinatal home-visiting programs are frequently confronted with the problem of high attrition rates. The aim of the present study is to identify predictors of study attrition in a trial evaluating a perinatal home-visiting program in France.

Materials and Methods

CAPEDP is a French randomized trial comparing a perinatal home-visiting program using psychologists versus usual care (N = 440). The first assessment was at inclusion into the trial at the 27^th week of pregnancy and the final assessment when the child reached the age of two. Attrition rates were calculated at 3 and 24 months postpartum. Stepwise logistic regression was used to identify predictors of early (between inclusion and 3 months postpartum) and later (between 3 and 24 months postpartum) attrition among social, psychological and parenting factors.

Results

Attrition rates were 17% and 63% at 3 and 24 months respectively. At 24 months, there was significantly more attrition in the control arm (70.6%) compared to the intervention arm (55.2%). Five independent predictors of early attrition were identified: having already had an abortion; having greater attachment insecurity as measured with the Vulnerable Attachment Style Questionnaire (VASQ); having lower global severity of psychiatric symptoms as assessed with the Symptom Check-List (SCL-90) at inclusion, being neither currently employed nor studying; and declaring no tobacco consumption during pregnancy. Being randomized into the control arm, having undergone early parental loss before age 11 and having lower global severity of psychiatric symptoms (SCL-90) at 3 months postpartum were the only variables associated with later attrition.

Conclusion

This study provides key information for identifying mothers who may require specific support to avoid study attrition in trials evaluating a home-visiting program.     

Role of Caffeine Intake on Erectile Dysfunction in US Men: Results from NHANES 2001-2004

Objectives

Caffeine is consumed by more than 85% of adults and little is known about its role on erectile dysfunction (ED) in population-based studies. We investigated the association of caffeine intake and caffeinated beverages with ED, and whether these associations vary among comorbidities for ED.

Material and Method

Data were analyzed for 3724 men (≥20 years old) who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). ED was assessed by a single question during a self-paced, computer-assisted self-interview. We analyzed 24-h dietary recall data to estimate caffeine intake (mg/day). Multivariable logistic regression analyses using appropriate sampling weights were conducted.

Results

We found that men in the 3^rd (85-170 mg/day) and 4^th (171-303 mg/day) quintiles of caffeine intake were less likely to report ED compared to men in the lowest 1^st quintile (0-7 mg/day) [OR: 0.58; 95% CI, 0.37–0.89; and OR: 0.61; 95% CI, 0.38–0.97, respectively], but no evidence for a trend. Similarly, among overweight/obese and hypertensive men, there was an inverse association between higher quintiles of caffeine intake and ED compared to men in the lowest 1^st quintile, P≤0.05 for each quintile. However, only among men without diabetes we found a similar inverse association (P_trend = 0.01).

Conclusion

Caffeine intake reduced the odds of prevalent ED, especially an intake equivalent to approximately 2-3 daily cups of coffee (170-375 mg/day). This reduction was also observed among overweight/obese and hypertensive, but not among diabetic men. Yet, these associations are warranted to be investigated in prospective studies.     

Transitioning a Large Scale HIV/AIDS Prevention Program to Local Stakeholders: Findings from the Avahan Transition Evaluation

Background

Between 2009–2013 the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation transitioned its HIV/AIDS prevention initiative in India from being a stand-alone program outside of government, to being fully government funded and implemented. We present an independent prospective evaluation of the transition.

Methods

The evaluation drew upon (1) a structured survey of transition readiness in a sample of 80 targeted HIV prevention programs prior to transition; (2) a structured survey assessing institutionalization of program features in a sample of 70 targeted intervention (TI) programs, one year post-transition; and (3) case studies of 15 TI programs.

Findings

Transition was conducted in 3 rounds. While the 2009 transition round was problematic, subsequent rounds were implemented more smoothly. In the 2011 and 2012 transition rounds, Avahan programs were well prepared for transition with the large majority of TI program staff trained for transition, high alignment with government clinical, financial and managerial norms, and strong government commitment to the program. One year post transition there were significant program changes, but these were largely perceived positively. Notable negative changes were: limited flexibility in program management, delays in funding, commodity stock outs, and community member perceptions of a narrowing in program focus. Service coverage outcomes were sustained at least six months post-transition.

Interpretation

The study suggests that significant investments in transition preparation contributed to a smooth transition and sustained service coverage. Notwithstanding, there were substantive program changes post-transition. Five key lessons for transition design and implementation are identified.     

Time to Death and Associated Factors among Tuberculosis Patients in Dangila Woreda,Northwest Ethiopia

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is among the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide. More than 70% of the deaths of TB patients occur during the first two months of TB treatment. The major risk factors that increase early death of TB patients are being positive for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), being of old age, being underweight or undergoing re-treatment.

Objective

To assess the time of reported deaths and associated factors in a cohort of patients with TB during TB treatment.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective cohort study was analyzed in Dangila Woreda, Northwest Ethiopia from March 1^st through March 30, 2014. All TB patients registered in the direct observed treatment (DOTs) clinic from 2008–2012 were included in the study. Data were entered into EpiData and exported to SPSS for analysis. The survival probability was analyzed by the Kaplan Meier method and Cox regression analysis was applied to investigate factors associated with death during TB treatment.

Results

From a total of 872 cases registered in TB registry log book, 810 were used for the analysis of which 60 (7.4%) died during the treatment. The overall mortality rate was 12.8/1000 person months of observation. A majority of TB deaths 34 (56.7%) occurred during the intensive phase of the treatment, and the median time of death was at two months of the treatment. Age, HIV status and baseline body weight were independent predictors of death during TB treatment.

Conclusions

Most deaths occurred in the first two months of TB treatment. Old age, TB/HIV co-infection and a baseline body weight of <35 kg increased the mortality during TB treatment. Therefore, a special follow up of TB patients during the intensive phase, of older patients and of TB/HIV co-infected cases, as well as nutritionally supplementing for underweight patients may be important to consider as interventions to reduce deaths during TB treatment.     

The Mexican Cycle of Suicide: A National Analysis of Seasonality, 2000-2013

Introduction

Suicide is a complex and multifactorial phenomenon with growing importance to public health. An increase in its occurrence has been observed in Mexico over the past 10 years. The present article analyzes the secular trend in suicide at the national level between the years 2000 and 2013.

Materials and Methods

All suicides during the study period (n = 64,298, of which 82.11% were men) were characterized using a spectral decomposition of the time series and a wavelet analysis to evaluate the effect of seasonal changes, type of area (urban versus rural) and sex.

Results

A seasonal pattern was observed with statistically significant cycles every 12 months, where peaks were identified in May but only for men in urban zones as of the year 2007. In addition, specific days of the year were found to have a higher frequency of suicides, which coincided with holidays (New Year, Mother’s Day, Mexican Independence Day and Christmas).

Conclusion

A wavelet analysis can be used to decompose complex time series. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of this technique to the study of suicides in developing countries. This analysis enabled identifying a seasonal pattern among urban men in Mexico. The identification of seasonal patterns can help to create primary prevention strategies, increase the dissemination of crisis intervention strategies and promote mental health. These strategies could be emphasized during specific periods of the year and directed towards profiles with a higher risk.     

Taipei's Use of a Multi-Channel Mass Risk Communication Program to Rapidly Reverse an Epidemic of Highly Communicable Disease

Background

In September 2007, an outbreak of acute hemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) occurred in Keelung City and spread to Taipei City. In response to the epidemic, a new crisis management program was implemented and tested in Taipei.

Methodology and Principal Findings

Having noticed that transmission surged on weekends during the Keelung epidemic, Taipei City launched a multi-channel mass risk communications program that included short message service (SMS) messages sent directly to approximately 2.2 million Taipei residents on Friday, October 12th, 2007. The public was told to keep symptomatic students from schools and was provided guidelines for preventing the spread of the disease at home. Epidemiological characteristics of Taipei''s outbreak were analyzed from 461 sampled AHC cases. Median time from exposure to onset of the disease was 1 day. This was significantly shorter for cases occurring in family clusters than in class clusters (mean±SD: 2.6±3.2 vs. 4.39±4.82 days, p = 0.03), as well as for cases occurring in larger family clusters as opposed to smaller ones (1.2±1.7 days vs. 3.9±4.0 days, p<0.01). Taipei''s program had a significant impact on patient compliance. Home confinement of symptomatic children increased from 10% to 60% (p<0.05) and helped curb the spread of AHC. Taipei experienced a rapid decrease in AHC cases between the Friday of the SMS announcement and the following Monday, October 15, (0.70% vs. 0.36%). By October 26, AHC cases reduced to 0.01%. The success of this risk communication program in Taipei (as compared to Keelung) is further reflected through rapid improvements in three epidemic indicators: (1) significantly lower crude attack rates (1.95% vs. 14.92%, p<0.001), (2) a short epidemic period of AHC (13 vs. 34 days), and (3) a quick drop in risk level (1∼2 weeks) in Taipei districts that border Keelung (the original domestic epicenter).

Conclusions and Significance

The timely launch of this systematic, communication-based intervention proved effective at preventing a dangerous spike in AHC and was able to bring this high-risk disease under control. We recommend that public health officials incorporate similar methods into existing guidelines for preventing pandemic influenza and other emerging infectious diseases.     

Regional Changes in Charcoal-Burning Suicide Rates in East/Southeast Asia from 1995 to 2011: A Time Trend Analysis

Background

Suicides by carbon monoxide poisoning resulting from burning barbecue charcoal reached epidemic levels in Hong Kong and Taiwan within 5 y of the first reported cases in the early 2000s. The objectives of this analysis were to investigate (i) time trends and regional patterns of charcoal-burning suicide throughout East/Southeast Asia during the time period 1995–2011 and (ii) whether any rises in use of this method were associated with increases in overall suicide rates. Sex- and age-specific trends over time were also examined to identify the demographic groups showing the greatest increases in charcoal-burning suicide rates across different countries.

Methods and Findings

We used data on suicides by gases other than domestic gas for Hong Kong, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore in the years 1995/1996–2011. Similar data for Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand were also extracted but were incomplete. Graphical and joinpoint regression analyses were used to examine time trends in suicide, and negative binomial regression analysis to study sex- and age-specific patterns. In 1995/1996, charcoal-burning suicides accounted for <1% of all suicides in all study countries, except in Japan (5%), but they increased to account for 13%, 24%, 10%, 7%, and 5% of all suicides in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore, respectively, in 2011. Rises were first seen in Hong Kong after 1998 (95% CI 1997–1999), followed by Singapore in 1999 (95% CI 1998–2001), Taiwan in 2000 (95% CI 1999–2001), Japan in 2002 (95% CI 1999–2003), and the Republic of Korea in 2007 (95% CI 2006–2008). No marked increases were seen in Malaysia, the Philippines, or Thailand. There was some evidence that charcoal-burning suicides were associated with an increase in overall suicide rates in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Japan (for females), but not in Japan (for males), the Republic of Korea, and Singapore. Rates of change in charcoal-burning suicide rate did not differ by sex/age group in Taiwan and Hong Kong but appeared to be greatest in people aged 15–24 y in Japan and people aged 25–64 y in the Republic of Korea. The lack of specific codes for charcoal-burning suicide in the International Classification of Diseases and variations in coding practice in different countries are potential limitations of this study.

Conclusions

Charcoal-burning suicides increased markedly in some East/Southeast Asian countries (Hong Kong, Taiwan, Japan, the Republic of Korea, and Singapore) in the first decade of the 21st century, but such rises were not experienced by all countries in the region. In countries with a rise in charcoal-burning suicide rates, the timing, scale, and sex/age pattern of increases varied by country. Factors underlying these variations require further investigation, but may include differences in culture or in media portrayals of the method. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary