Turning science into policy: challenges and experiences from the science-policy interface

This paper discusses key issues in the science-policy interface. It stresses the importance of linking the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity to the Millennium Development Goals and to issues of immediate concern to policy-makers such as the economy, security and human health. It briefly discusses the process of decision-making and how the scientific and policy communities have successfully worked together on global environmental issues such as stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change, and the critical role of international assessments in providing the scientific basis for informed policy at the national and international level. The paper also discusses the drivers of global environmental change, the importance of constructing plausible futures, indicators of change, the biodiversity 2010 target and how environmental issues such as loss of biodiversity, stratospheric ozone depletion, land degradation, water pollution and climate change cannot be addressed in isolation because they are strongly interconnected and there are synergies and trade-offs among the policies, practices and technologies that are used to address these issues individually.     

Hand in Hand: Public Endorsement of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.     

Science,Politics and Policy: How Michiganders think about the Risks Facing the Great Lakes

The Great Lakes region is an important ecological asset for the United States, yet studies show that several environmental risks threaten its viability. As a result, it is important to respond to these risks with effective policies. When and how policy is implemented often depends on public opinion and perceptions; yet, we understand little about how individuals from the Great Lakes region construct opinions about the threats facing the lakes. We seek to understand how individuals from the state of Michigan form opinions on three risks to the lakes: invasive Asian carp, climate change, and offshore drilling. To do this, we evaluate the utility of two dominant models of environmental opinion formation: trust and deference to scientific authority, and partisan bias and motivated reasoning. We find that when issues have been politicized, opinion is greatly influenced by political factors like partisanship but that trust and deference as well as underlying environmental attitudes play a more important role for issues that have not been politicized. We discuss the implications of these findings in terms of policy and communication in Michigan, arguing that if we want Michiganders to support policy consistent with science, they must view risk in ways that are consistent with scientific consensus. For that to happen, advocates and policy makers must focus on reducing the political rhetoric around these threats, developing communication that taps into underlying trust and deference to science, and using underlying attitudes about the role of government in environmental protection to promote environmental policy.     

Bioethics and the Framing of Climate Change's Health Risks

Cheryl Cox MacPherson recently argued, in an article for this journal, that ‘Climate Change is a Bioethics Problem’. This article elaborates on that position, particularly highlighting bioethicists' potential ability to help reframe the current climate change discourse to give more attention to its health risks. This reframing process is especially important because of the looming problem of climate change skepticism. Recent empirical evidence from science framing experiments indicates that the public reacts especially positively to climate change messages framed in public health terms, and bioethicists are particularly well positioned to contribute their expertise to the process of carefully developing and communicating such messages. Additionally, as climate framing research and practice continue, it will be important for bioethicists to contribute to the creation of that project's nascent ethical standards. The discourse surrounding antibiotic resistance is posited as an example that can lend insight into how communicating a public health‐framed message, including the participation of bioethicists, can help to override public skepticism about the findings of politically contentious scientific fields.     

Expansion of gambling in Canada: implications for health and social policy

Canada experienced a dramatic increase in legalized gambling in the 1990s, primarily because of governments'' need to increase revenue without additional taxation. This article examines gambling from a public health perspective. The major public health issues include gambling addiction, family dysfunction and gambling by youth. Debates have emerged about the health, social and economic costs and benefits of gambling. Stakeholder and social policy groups have expressed concern about the impact of expanded gambling on the quality of life of individuals, families and communities. Epidemiological studies show that the prevalence of gambling in the general adult population is low but increasing. Of particular concern is the high though steady prevalence of gambling among youth. New technologies have been linked to gambling-related problems such as addiction to gambling by video lottery terminals. Gambling by means of the Internet represents another emerging issue. The article concludes with recommendations for health and social policy related to gambling. These recommendations incorporate a broad public health approach to create a strong research program and to balance risks and benefits.     

Are all risk perceptions created equal? Comparing general risk assessments and specific risk assessments associated with climate change

For policy-making to address public risk perceptions effectively, policy-makers must have a clear understanding of the nature of public risks. Public opinion polls regularly solicit perceptions of risk toward a variety of topics. These assessments, though, tend to be general with no specificity offered for a nuanced interpretation. Yet, there is good reason to assume that risk perceptions are not based on the same criteria. If true, policy-makers may be unable to address risks adequately without a better understanding of the drivers of risk perceptions. This project focuses on two primary research questions: (1) Does the public weigh the risk associated with global climate change differently in specific sub-domains? (2) If so, which climate change sub-domains are various members of the public most concerned about when offering a general assessment of global climate change risk? We assess public risk perceptions of climate change in three sub-domains—public health, economic development, and environment—and find that two of the three sub-domains are predictors of a general assessment of risk.     

Generating carbon finance through avoided deforestation and its potential to create climatic, conservation and human development benefits

Recent proposals to compensate developing countries for reducing emissions from deforestation (RED) under forthcoming climate change mitigation regimes are receiving increasing attention. Here we demonstrate that if RED credits were traded on international carbon markets, even moderate decreases in deforestation rates could generate billions of Euros annually for tropical forest conservation. We also discuss the main challenges for a RED mechanism that delivers real climatic benefits. These include providing sufficient incentives while only rewarding deforestation reductions beyond business-as-usual scenarios, addressing risks arising from forest degradation and international leakage, and ensuring permanence of emission reductions. Governance may become a formidable challenge for RED because some countries with the highest RED potentials score poorly on governance indices. In addition to climate mitigation, RED funds could help achieve substantial co-benefits for biodiversity conservation and human development. However, this will probably require targeted additional support because the highest biodiversity threats and human development needs may exist in countries that have limited income potentials from RED. In conclusion, how successfully a market-based RED mechanism can contribute to climate change mitigation, conservation and development will strongly depend on accompanying measures and carefully designed incentive structures involving governments, business, as well as the conservation and development communities.     

Values-led conservation

In international nature conservation policy, value‐arguments based on science and economic rationalism increasingly overshadow the aesthetic and ethical arguments that originally inspired the conservation movement. We argue that this trend risks removing conservation from the public realm, in part because it facilitates the adoption by nongovernment conservation bodies of corporate values and/or their integration with government bureaucracies. By contrast, the explicit recognition of aesthetic and ethical values would complement arguments based on science and economic utility. We subscribe to a reformist view of globalization that accepts the inevitability of a globalizing world but argues that the process needs humanizing by incorporating quality of life values in the policy process. We argue that re‐emphasis of aesthetic and ethical arguments in international conservation policy would contribute to this goal by reasserting links between conservation bodies and the public, thereby leading to more effective action on the ground.     

Political polarization of conservation issues in the era of COVID-19: An examination of partisan perspectives and priorities in the United States

As a zoonotic disease with unprecedented global impacts, COVID-19 may influence how people prioritize issues related to wildlife conservation. Using a nationally representative sample of US residents, we investigated: (1) how COVID-19 affected the relative importance of conservation issues among adults with different political ideologies, and (2) how the pandemic affected political polarization of conservation issues during the 2020 general election in the United States. Conservation issues such as endangered species and controlling zoonotic disease ranked low in importance among the 14 policy issues considered, even lower than environmental issues such as climate change and environmental protection; however, the importance of all conservation issues increased as a result of COVID-19. Political polarization surrounding the perceived importance of conservation issues also increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, with Democrats reporting larger increases in importance than Republicans. Polarization was driven by the most conservative Republicans and the most liberal Democrats. But this polarization was less extreme than it was for other issues such as climate change and healthcare. Findings highlight the need for communicating links between zoonotic disease and human interactions with wildlife and the environment. Acting quickly may be critical in areas where conservation issues are primed to succumb to political polarization.     

HUMAN DIGNITY IN INTERNATIONAL POLICY DOCUMENTS: A USEFUL CRITERION FOR PUBLIC POLICY?

Current developments in biomedicine are presenting us with difficult ethical decisions and raising complex policy questions about how to regulate these new developments. Particularly vexing for governments have been issues related to human embryo experimentation. Because some of the most promising biomedical developments, such as stem cell research and nuclear somatic transfer, involve such experimentation, several international bodies have drafted documents aimed to provide guidance to governments when developing biomedical science policy. Here I focus on two such documents: the Council of Europe's Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Dignity of the Human Being and the Additional Protocol to the Convention for the Protection of Human Rights and Dignity of the Human Being. I argue that by using human dignity as a criterion to determine the permissibility of particular human embryo research practices, these documents cannot aid in identifying research that would be contrary to human dignity. Thus, they fail to guide public policy on embryo experimentation. Their use of human dignity as a criterion makes their task of offering guidance unfeasible because the concept as used in these documents is too vague and is applied in contradictory ways. I discuss the main goals of these documents and their claims in relation to human embryo research. I then discuss how they have influenced public policy in several countries. Finally, I show that although these Council of Europe treaties attempt to serve as public policy guides in the area of embryo research, they fail to do so.     

One option,two countries,several strategies: subjacent mechanisms of assisted migration implementation in Canada and France

Climate change obliges societies to develop adaptive strategies in order to maintain sustainable management of resources and landscapes. However, the development and implementation of these strategies require dialogue between researchers and policy‐makers about what they understand for adaptation. This dialogue can be hindered by language differences, the hidden agendas, and conflicting concerns of those involved. In this research study, we explored the mechanisms that underlie the implementation process of assisted migration (AM), an adaptation strategy that aims to limit the impact of climate change. We conducted a comparative analysis of 80 semistructured interviews with actors in the forestry sectors in Canada and France. In Canada, our results show a division between the provinces strategies, causing a debate about AM because researchers are wary of the geoengineering and economic arguments that frame AM in areas where the effects of climate change remain unclear. In contrast, we found that the observation of climate impacts is a strong trigger for the application of AM despite an awareness of its associated risks. In France, we explained the absence of AM implementation by a lack of information flow between research and foresters regarding the concept of AM, a cultural attachment of French foresters to their forest landscapes and that climate change effects are not clear yet. Clarity on what implies a true ecological engineering approach in ecological restoration can help maintaining adaptive actions like AM within the general scope of ecosystem management and minimize simplistic applications of adaptation strategies because of climate change.     

An Interdisciplinary Perspective on Carbon Capture and Storage Assessment Methods

Climate change is one of the most serious threats facing humankind. Mitigating climate change will require a suite of actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a new technology aimed at mitigating climate change by capturing and storing carbon dioxide, typically in deep geological reservoirs. CCS has risks characteristic of new technologies, as well as risks unique to this technology and its application. Large‐scale CCS decision making is complex, encompassing environmental, social, and economic considerations and requiring the risks to be taken into consideration. CCS projects have been cancelled as a result of inadequate assessments of risks. To date, studies assessing CCS have been limited mostly to environmental, social, and economic fields in isolation from each other, predominantly using life cycle assessments (LCAs), cost benefit analyses (CBAs), or surveys of public perception. LCAs, CBAs, and surveys of public perception all have limitations for assessing difficult multifaceted problems. Incompatibilities across CCS assessment methods have hindered the comparison of the results across these single‐discipline studies and limited the possibility of drawing broader conclusions about CCS development. More standardization across assessment methods, study assumptions, functional units, and assessment criteria for CCS could be beneficial to the integration of multiple study results. We propose a set of criteria, which decision analysts could use to develop CCS‐project–specific criteria lists in order to comprehensively assess a CCS project's viability. This list was created by determining the frequency of use of each criterion in recent studies, with a focus on their use across disciplines.     

我国极端干旱天气变化趋势及其对城市水资源压力的影响

随着全球气候变化和水循环的改变,降水不均和持续干旱等极端天气事件的频度和强度增加,对水资源,尤其是人口和社会经济密度高的城市的水资源带来很大的影响和压力。为了探究我国干旱天气的变化趋势、区域特征、及其对城市水资源压力的影响,采用全国917个气象站点1951—2014年的逐日降水量数据集,分析了我国水资源及干旱的变化趋势和空间分布特征,并以我国289个主要地级市为研究对象,构建了气候变化情境下的城市基于区域降水禀赋的水资源压力评估方法,预测并展望了不同时段和不同代表性浓度路径(RCPs)情景下的未来城市水资源压力的情况。结果显示,我国极端干旱情况整体是随着全球气候变化增加的,年最长连续无降水天数变化速度的平均值为2.3d/100a,但是具有区域性,具体表现为南部地区干旱减缓而北部地区干旱严重。我国城市水资源压力受水资源禀赋的影响,呈现北方高而南方低的分布,除此之外水资源消耗大的大城市资源压力也比较大。随着气候变化,近期我国整体城市水资源压力相对现阶段增加了2%左右,具体水资源压力上升的城市有170个,水资源压力减少的城市有110个,剩下的9个城市水资源压力受气候变化的影响比较小。在低应对的RCP8.5情景下的城市水资源压力远远高于在RCP2.6情景,这说明减缓气候变化工作对降低我国城市水资源压力有积极作用;城市水资源压力的变化并不是均匀的,呈现南部减少而北部增加的变化趋势,我国华北地区城市的水资源压力最大,随着气候的变化,该地区的水资源压力也在随着时间不断增加,需要政府积极行动,提出有针对性和前瞻性的水资源规划方案,并依据方案采取措施,以应对气候变化造成的城市干旱增加。     

我国极端降水变化趋势及其对城市排水压力的影响

全球气候变化对水循环具有重要影响,其中极端降水的变化,对城市排水系统产生巨大冲击,造成城市内涝、交通瘫痪及生命财产损失等问题。为了揭示我国极端降水变化的趋势和区域特征,及其对城市排水系统的压力程度,使用中国气象数据中心1951—2014年全国917个站点的逐日降水量,计算得到我国极端降水及其变化趋势的空间分布特征。并以我国289个主要地级城市为研究对象,构建了气候变化情景下的城市排水压力评估方法,预测并展望了不同时段和不同代表性浓度路径(RCPs)情景下,未来城市的排水压力情况。结果表明,我国极端降水整体上正随着全球气候变化而增加,全国年最大降水量变化速度的平均值为0.06mm/a,但并不是所有区域都具有一致性,具体表现为南部极端降水增加而北部缓解的规律。我国排水压力大的城市主要分布在南部和东北地区,城市排水基础设施完善的东部和极端降水量比较小的西部地区城市排水压力比较低,华北地区极端降水的随机性大,历史上出现的最大降水显著高于该地区常见大雨,也属于内涝风险比较大的区域。随着气候变化的影响,我国未来城市排水压力整体上升,城市未来短期排水压力相对于现有水平总体上升2.9%,具体75个城市的排水压力有所增加明显。且低应对的RCP8.5情景显著高于高应对的RCP2.6情景,这说明减缓气候变化的工作对降低我国城市内涝风险有比较大的积极意义。我国城市排水压力的变化也具有区域性,华北地区极端降水呈现减少的趋势,南部地区极端降水呈现增加趋势,加重了该地区原本就很高的城市内涝风险,需要政府采取积极措施提出有针对性的方案和考虑了气候变化的前瞻性城市排水规划,以降低城市排水压力,尽量减少城市内涝造成的经济损失。     

农户对气候变化的感知与适应研究综述

气候变化是21世纪人类面临的最严峻挑战之一,加剧了许多国家和地区的脆弱性,人类如何适应气候变化已成为当前全社会普遍关注的话题.气候变化对以自然资源为生计基础的农业人口的影响尤为显著,更好地理解农户对气候变化的适应机制和适应过程对于制定有效的适应政策非常重要.公众感知作为理解人文响应行动的基础,已为探明农户对气候变化的适应机制和适应过程提供了一个新视角.本文基于国内外农户对气候变化的感知和适应的理论研究和实践进展,在分析气候变化对农户生计的影响、系统总结农户面临的主要适应障碍的基础上,梳理了农户的气候变化感知与适应的关系,阐释了农户适应气候变化过程中的关键认知要素,介绍了农户对气候变化的感知与适应关系分析框架,提出了农户对气候变化的感知与适应关系研究中应关注的关键问题.     

Climate change and coastal waterbird populations – past declines and future impacts

Considerable attention has been given to the impact of climate change on avian populations over the last decade. In this paper we examine two issues with respect to coastal bird populations in the UK: (1) is there any evidence that current populations are declining due to climate change, and (2) how might we predict the response of populations in the future? We review the cause of population decline in two species associated with saltmarsh habitats. The abundance of Common Redshank Tringa totanus breeding on saltmarsh declined by about 23% between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s, but the decline appears to have been caused by an increase in grazing pressure. The number of Twite Carduelis flavirostris wintering on the coast of East Anglia has declined dramatically over recent decades; there is evidence linking this decline with habitat loss but a causal role for climate change is unclear. These examples illustrate that climate change could be having population-level impacts now, but also show that it is dangerous to become too narrowly focused on single issues affecting coastal birds. Making predictions about how populations might respond to future climate change depends on an adequate understanding of important ecological processes at an appropriate spatial scale. We illustrate this with recent work conducted on the Icelandic population of Black-tailed Godwits Limosa limosa islandica that shows large-scale regulatory processes. Most predictive models to date have focused on local populations (single estuary or a group of neighbouring estuaries). We discuss the role such models might play in risk assessment, and the need for them to be linked to larger-scale ecological processes. We argue that future work needs to focus on spatial scale issues and on linking physical models of coastal environments with important ecological processes.     

How to make predictions about future infectious disease risks

Formal, quantitative approaches are now widely used to make predictions about the likelihood of an infectious disease outbreak, how the disease will spread, and how to control it. Several well-established methodologies are available, including risk factor analysis, risk modelling and dynamic modelling. Even so, predictive modelling is very much the 'art of the possible', which tends to drive research effort towards some areas and away from others which may be at least as important. Building on the undoubted success of quantitative modelling of the epidemiology and control of human and animal diseases such as AIDS, influenza, foot-and-mouth disease and BSE, attention needs to be paid to developing a more holistic framework that captures the role of the underlying drivers of disease risks, from demography and behaviour to land use and climate change. At the same time, there is still considerable room for improvement in how quantitative analyses and their outputs are communicated to policy makers and other stakeholders. A starting point would be generally accepted guidelines for 'good practice' for the development and the use of predictive models.     

Managing Global Atmospheric Change: A U.S. Policy Perspective

There are several air pollution issues that concern the international community at the regional and global level, including acid deposition, heavy metals, persistent organic pollutants, stratospheric ozone depletion, and climate change. Governments at the regional and global levels have entered into various agreements in an effort to deal with these problems. This paper deals with two major global atmospheric change issues: stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change. The focus is on the policy responses of the United States to these global issues. The United States has signed and ratified international agreements to deal with both problems. The Vienna Convention and the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer have led to an effort in both developed and developing countries to phase out ozone depleting substances. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has been signed and ratified by over 180 countries. The UNFCC contained no binding targets and timetables for emissions reductions. The Kyoto Protocol (1997) to the UNFCCC did contain targets and timetables for reductions of greenhouse gases on the part of developed countries. The United States has signed but not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. The United States has experienced some movement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions on the part of various levels of government as well as the private sector. The policy process is constantly informed by scientific research. In the case of stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change, much of this work is carried out under the auspices of international scientific panels. From a policy perspective, there is a great deal of interest in the use of indicators for assessing the scope and magnitude of these problems, both for fashioning policy responses as well as assessing the impact of adopted programs to reduce ozone depleting substances, and potentially, greenhouse gases. This paper will discuss some of the indicators used for stratospheric ozone depletion and climate change.     

Debating ethics and public policy: the Nuffield Council on Bioethics

Concerns about bioethical issues raised by scientific developments in genetics are a common feature of both public and policy debates in the UK. This article sets out how one such body, the Nuffield Council on Bioethics, contributes to public and policy debates, and provides information about similar bodies in the UK and around the world.     

Genetics and personal responsibility for health

Advances in genetic medicine may have implications for how we should think about personal responsibility for health, because they may show how it is possible to exert some control over risk factors that were previously thought as beyond the individual's control. Although we cannot control the genes that we are born with, we can often make decisions concerning genetic testing, disease prevention, and treatment. One might argue, therefore, that individuals should be treated as morally responsible for taking effective action in response to genetic risks factors, since genetically based health risks are similar to other health risks. While this argument makes sense as an abstract, philosophical position, it is not a useful guide to public policy. Given these concerns, there is little society can or should do to encourage individuals to address their genetic risk factors, other than praising those who make prudent choices.