The role of frugivory in the diversification of bats in the Neotropics

Aim Ecological interactions are among the most important biotic factors influencing the processes of speciation and extinction. Our aim was to test whether diversification rates of New World Noctilionoidea bats are associated with specialization for frugivory, and how this pattern differs between the mainland and the West Indies. Location The New World. Methods We reconstructed a time‐calibrated molecular phylogenetic hypothesis for the New World genera of the superfamily Noctilionoidea. We compiled data on diet, morphology, geographical distribution and number of ecoregions in which each genus occurs. Then, using the phylogenetic tree constructed, we tested whether diversification was driven by diet (animalivorous and sanguinivorous versus nectarivorous and frugivorous) and specialization for frugivory. Afterwards, we conducted phylogenetic comparative analyses to identify correlates of species richness and net diversification rates. Results The diversification rate was higher in mutualistic than in antagonistic clades in mainland and Antillean biogeographical scenarios, but only strictly frugivorous clades showed a markedly higher diversification rate than the rest of the genera. Geographical range and number of ecoregions were positively associated with species richness and diversification rate in continental and insular lineages. Lower body mass, lower forearm length and specialization for frugivory were significantly positively correlated with higher diversification rates in continental lineages, whereas these parameters were negatively correlated in Antillean lineages. Main conclusions The direction of the relationship of intrinsic factors (specialization for frugivory and body size) with diversification of noctilionoid bats depends on the biogeographical context, whereas the direction of the relationship of extrinsic factors (geographical range and number of ecoregions) with diversification is consistent in both mainland and the West Indian lineages.     

Doomed to die? Predicting extinction risk in the true hawks Accipitridae

One of the most important tasks in conservation biology is identifying species at risk from extinction and establishing the most likely factors influencing this risk. Here, we consider an ecologically well-defined, monophyletic group of organisms, the true hawks of the family Accipitridae, which are not only among the most studied, but also contain some of the rarest bird species in the world. We investigate which intrinsic and extrinsic factors, covering morphology, life history and ecology, covary with International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources threat status, as well as global population size and geographic range size. By decomposing threat status into population size and range size, we test whether any factors are generally important: we found that species with less habitat specialization, a larger clutch size and more plumage polymorphism were associated with lower extinction risk and larger population and range sizes. Species with special habitat requirements might be less capable of dealing with habitat transformation and fragmentation, while species with small clutch sizes might not be able to reverse population declines. Plumage polymorphism might indicate the size of the species' gene pool and could be a good marker of extinction risk. The analyses also emphasized that no single factor is likely to be sufficient when predicting the threat of extinction.     

Life‐history and ecological correlates of decline and extinction in the endemic Australian frog fauna

Abstract Frog populations are rapidly disappearing throughout the world. An important issue for ecologists to resolve is why some frog species are more susceptible to decline than others. Here, we performed a comparative study of the endemic Australian frog fauna to determine whether the life history and ecology of declining species have predisposed them to extinction. Decline was consistently found to be correlated with geographical range size across contemporary species and in analyses based on phylogenetically independent contrasts (PICs). Species with narrow geographical ranges have been disproportionately more susceptible to decline. Across species, decline was also correlated with large body size and a high proportion of the geographical range overlapping with the distribution of cane toads and landscape stress (e.g. land clearing). We show that with the exception of range size, however, correlates of decline across species are underpinned by a small number of evolutionary events. Hence, the suite of traits that correlate with decline in the cross‐species analysis is only relevant to a small number of clades. We also found that clutch size, testes mass, ova size and distributional overlap with feral pigs were not significantly related to decline. In the ongoing search for life‐history and ecological correlates of decline and extinction, our results highlight the importance of performing analyses across contemporary species and using PICs.     

Larger brains spur species diversification in birds

Evidence is accumulating that species traits can spur their evolutionary diversification by influencing niche shifts, range expansions, and extinction risk. Previous work has shown that larger brains (relative to body size) facilitate niche shifts and range expansions by enhancing behavioral plasticity but whether larger brains also promote evolutionary diversification is currently backed by insufficient evidence. We addressed this gap by combining a brain size dataset for >1900 avian species worldwide with estimates of diversification rates based on two conceptually different phylogenetic‐based approaches. We found consistent evidence that lineages with larger brains (relative to body size) have diversified faster than lineages with relatively smaller brains. The best supported trait‐dependent model suggests that brain size primarily affects diversification rates by increasing speciation rather than decreasing extinction rates. In addition, we found that the effect of relatively brain size on species‐level diversification rate is additive to the effect of other intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Altogether, our results highlight the importance of brain size as an important factor in evolution and reinforce the view that intrinsic features of species have the potential to influence the pace of evolution.     

Extrinsic factors and the population sizes of threatened birds

Attempts to explain the orders-of-magnitude variation observed in animal population sizes have principally focused on intrinsic differences between the taxa compared, but with limited success: most variation remains unexplained by such studies. However, animal population sizes may also vary in response to extrinsic factors, such as the environment occupied or the influence of human activities. Here, we use new estimates of the global population sizes of threatened bird species to examine extrinsic correlates of variation in their numbers, using general linear modelling and methods to control for phylogenetic relatedness. Threatened bird population sizes varied significantly with several extrinsic factors, including altitude, biogeographical region inhabited, type of extinction threat faced, and habitat used. They also vary with geographical range size, which was included in the analysis to control for its potentially confounding effects on the results. Details of the observed relationships, which vary with analytical method, are discussed. However, apart from geographical range size, none of the extrinsic variables analysed here explain more than a small percentage of the variation in threatened bird population sizes. Thus, it seems likely that a comprehensive explanation for why some species are common while others are rare will not be dominated by a single factor.     

Species richness among birds: body size,life history,sexual selection or ecology?

Why do some avian families contain so many more species than other families? We use comparisons between sister taxa to test predictions arising from six explanations to this puzzle: that differences between families are due to chance, body size, life history, sexual selection, intrinsic ecological factors or extrinsic abiotic factors, respectively. In agreement with previous analyses, we find no support for the idea that differences in species richness are simply due to chance. However, contrary to most previous work, we also find no support for the hypotheses that high species richness is correlated with small body size and fast life history. Rather, high species diversity is strongly associated with pronounced plumage dichromatism, generalist feeding habits and good dispersal capabilities as well as large and fragmented geographical ranges. In addition, all of these relationships are robust to the removal of the two most speciose avian lineages, the Ciconiiformes and the Passeriformes. The supposed relationships between species richness and both body size and life history are, however, due to phylogenetic non-independence. Together with previous work showing that differences between avian lineages in extinction risk are associated with variation in body size and life history, these results indicate that extinction rates and speciation rates are not necessarily determined by the same factors. Hence, high extinction rates are not inevitably associated with low speciation rates. Extinction-prone lineages may, in fact, have a high rate of speciation. In such lineages a high proportion of ''vulnerable'' species would be a natural, ongoing phenomenon.     

Macroecology and extinction risk correlates of frogs

Aim  Our aim was to test whether extinction risk of frog species could be predicted from their body size, fecundity or geographical range size. Because small geographical range size is a correlate of extinction risk in many taxa, we also tested hypotheses about correlates of range size in frogs.
Location  Global.
Methods  Using a large comparative data set ( n  = 527 species) compiled from the literature, we performed bivariate and multiple regressions through the origin of independent contrasts to test proposed macroecological patterns and correlates of extinction risk in frogs. We also created minimum adequate models to predict snout–vent length, clutch size, geographical range size and IUCN Red List status in frogs. Parallel non-phylogenetic analyses were also conducted. We verified the results of the phylogenetic analyses using gridded data accounting for spatial autocorrelation.
Results  The most threatened frog species tend to have small geographical ranges, although the relationship between range and extinction risk is not linear. In addition, tropical frogs with small clutches have the smallest ranges. Clutch size was strongly positively correlated with geographical range size ( r ² = 0.22) and body size ( r ² = 0.28).
Main conclusions  Our results suggest that body size and fecundity only affect extinction risk indirectly through their effect on geographical range size. Thus, although large frogs with small clutches tend to be endangered, there is no comparative evidence that this relationship is direct. If correct, this inference has consequences for conservation strategy: it would be inefficient to allocate conservation resources on the basis of low fecundity or large body size; instead it would be better to protect areas that contain many frog species with small geographical ranges.     

Body size and extinction risk in Australian mammals: An information‐theoretic approach

The critical weight range (CWR) hypothesis for Australian mammals states that extinctions and declines have been concentrated in species with body mass between 35 g and 5.5 kg. The biological basis for this hypothesis is that species of intermediate size are disproportionately impacted by introduced predators. The CWR hypothesis has received support from several statistical studies over the past decade, although the evidence is weaker or non‐existent for certain groups such as mesic‐zone mammals and arboreal mammals. In this study, we employ an information‐theoretic model selection approach to gain further insights into the relationship between body mass and extinction risk in Australian mammals. We find evidence, consistent with the CWR hypothesis, that extinction risk peaks at intermediate body masses for marsupials, rodents and ground‐dwelling species, but not for arboreal species. In contrast to previous studies, we find that the CWR describes extinction patterns in the mesic zone as well as the arid zone. In the mesic zone, there is also a weaker tendency for large species above the CWR to be more vulnerable, consistent with extinction patterns on other continents. We find that a more biological plausible Gaussian distribution consistently fits the data better than the polynomial models that have been used in previous studies. Our results justify conservation programmes targeted at species within the CWR across Australia.     

Can intrinsic factors explain population declines in North American breeding shorebirds? A comparative analysis

Many shorebirds that breed in North America are declining. These trends reflect global patterns in shorebird populations. Here we ask what factors make some shorebird species more prone to decline than others. Specifically, we test the influence of migratory behaviour (route and distance), biogeography (population size and range), life history (body size, clutch size) and sexual selection (social mating system and testis size) on population trends in North American breeding shorebirds. Using phylogenetic comparative methods, we show that species that migrate across continental North America are more prone to decline than species that do not. Our finding that continental migrants are associated with population decline indicates that intrinsic factors may play an important role in predisposing a species to decline. Previous studies within the class Aves have failed to identify migration route as a correlate of decline or extinction risk. Two other intrinsic factors (oceanic migrants and threats on the non-breeding grounds) were also important in our overall models, although neither was significant alone. The moderate explanatory power of our variables indicates that other factors are also important for explaining shorebird declines. We suggest that contemporary threats, most notably habitat loss and degradation at migratory stopover sites, are likely to be important.     

Unravelling the structure of species extinction risk for predictive conservation science

Extinction risk varies across species and space owing to the combined and interactive effects of ecology/life history and geography. For predictive conservation science to be effective, large datasets and integrative models that quantify the relative importance of potential factors and separate rapidly changing from relatively static threat drivers are urgently required. Here, we integrate and map in space the relative and joint effects of key correlates of The International Union for Conservation of Nature-assessed extinction risk for 8700 living birds. Extinction risk varies significantly with species' broad-scale environmental niche, geographical range size, and life-history and ecological traits such as body size, developmental mode, primary diet and foraging height. Even at this broad scale, simple quantifications of past human encroachment across species' ranges emerge as key in predicting extinction risk, supporting the use of land-cover change projections for estimating future threat in an integrative setting. A final joint model explains much of the interspecific variation in extinction risk and provides a remarkably strong prediction of its observed global geography. Our approach unravels the species-level structure underlying geographical gradients in extinction risk and offers a means of disentangling static from changing components of current and future threat. This reconciliation of intrinsic and extrinsic, and of past and future extinction risk factors may offer a critical step towards a more continuous, forward-looking assessment of species' threat status based on geographically explicit environmental change projections, potentially advancing global predictive conservation science.     

Human overexploitation and extinction risk correlates of Chinese snakes

China is one of the countries with the richest snake biodiversity in the world. However, about one‐third of all 236 species are now considered threatened, partially due to the intense human overexploitation. Despite that, to date, no study has explicitly investigated the patterns and processes of extinction and threats of Chinese snakes, or between human exploited and unexploited snake subgroups. We addressed the following three questions: 1) which snake families proportionally include more human exploited species than expected by chance? 2) Which species traits and extrinsic factors are correlated with their extinction risk? 3) Are there differences between human exploited and unexploited species in terms of patterns and processes of extinction? We found that the family Elapidae contained a significantly higher number of exploited species. Considering eight species traits and four extrinsic factors, we performed phylogenetic correlation tests, finding that small geographic range size, large body length, oviparous reproduction, diurnal activity and high human exploitation were important in determining the extinction risk of all Chinese snakes. Moreover, human exploited snakes had a higher percentage of threatened species and large‐bodied species than unexploited snakes. Extinction risk of human exploited species was related to body length, reproduction mode and activity period, whereas that of human unexploited species were associated with geographic range size, microhabitat and annual temperature. Overall, we highlight the phylogenetic non‐random exploitation of snakes, and different factors underlying species response to human overexploitation. We suggest that conservation priority should be given to exploitation‐prone families and species with extinction‐prone traits, as identified in this study. Moreover, human exploited and unexploited species should be managed considering different strategies since their extinction risk was associated with different ecological traits. Conservation actions should also focus on preventing human threats, such as human overexploitation and habitat loss, for the effective preservation of Chinese snakes.     

Drivers of extinction: the case of Azorean beetles

Oceanic islands host a disproportionately high fraction of endangered or recently extinct endemic species. We report on species extinctions among endemic Azorean beetles following 97% habitat loss since AD 1440. We infer extinctions from historical and contemporary records and examine the influence of three predictors: geographical range, habitat specialization and body size. Of 55 endemic beetle species investigated (out of 63), seven can be considered extinct. Single-island endemics (SIEs) were more prone to extinction than multi-island endemics. Within SIEs restricted to native habitat, larger species were more extinction-prone. We thus show a hierarchical path to extinction in Azorean beetles: species with small geographical range face extinction first, with the larger bodied ones being the most threatened. Our study provides a clear warning of the impact of habitat loss on island endemic biotas.     

Archosauromorph extinction selectivity during the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction

Many traits have been linked to extinction risk among modern vertebrates, including mode of life and body size. However, previous work has indicated there is little evidence that body size, or any other trait, was selective during past mass extinctions. Here, we investigate the impact of the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction on early Archosauromorpha (basal dinosaurs, crocodylomorphs and their relatives) by focusing on body size and other life history traits. We built several new archosauromorph maximum‐likelihood supertrees, incorporating uncertainty in phylogenetic relationships. These supertrees were then employed as a framework to test whether extinction had a phylogenetic signal during the Triassic–Jurassic mass extinction, and whether species with certain traits were more or less likely to go extinct. We find evidence for phylogenetic signal in extinction, in that taxa were more likely to become extinct if a close relative also did. However, there is no correlation between extinction and body size, or any other tested trait. These conclusions add to previous findings that body size, and other traits, were not subject to selection during mass extinctions in closely‐related clades, although the phylogenetic signal in extinction indicates that selection may have acted on traits not investigated here.     

Using functional traits and phylogeny to understand local extinction risk in dragonflies and damselflies (Odonata)

Understanding the risk of local extinction of a species is vital in conservation biology, especially now when anthropogenic disturbances and global warming are severely changing natural habitats. Local extinction risk depends on species traits, such as its geographical range size, fresh body mass, dispersal ability, length of flying period, life history variation, and how specialized it is regarding its breeding habitat. We used a phylogenetic approach because closely related species are not independent observations in the statistical tests. Our field data contained the local extinction risk of 31 odonate (dragonflies and damselflies) species from Central Finland. Species relatedness (i.e., phylogenetic signal) did not affect local extinction risk, length of flying period, nor the geographical range size of a species. However, we found that closely related species were similar in hind wing length, length of larval period, and habitat of larvae. Both phylogenetically corrected (PGLS) and uncorrected (GLM) analysis indicated that the geographical range size of species was negatively related to local extinction risk. Contrary to expectations, habitat specialist species did not have higher local extinction rates than habitat generalist species nor was it affected by the relatedness of species. As predicted, species’ long larval period increased, and long wings decreased the local extinction risk when evolutionary relatedness was controlled. Our results suggest that a relatively narrow geographical range size is an accurate estimate for a local extinction risk of an odonate species, but the species with long life history and large habitat niche width of adults increased local extinction risk. Because the results were so similar between PGLS and GLM methods, it seems that using a phylogenetic approach does not improve predicting local extinctions.     

Species distribution,ecology, abundance,body size and phylogeny originate interrelated rarity patterns at regional scale

The most pervasive macroecological patterns concern (1) the frequency distribution of range size, (2) the relationship between range size and species abundance and (3) the effect of body size on range size. We investigated these patterns at a regional scale using the tenebrionid beetles of Latium (Central Italy). For this, we calculated geographical range size (no. of 10‐km square cells), ecological tolerance (no. of phytoclimatic units) and abundance (no. of sampled individuals) using a large database containing 3561 georeferenced records for 84 native species. For each species, we also calculated body mass and its ‘phylogenetic diversity’ on the basis of cladistic relationships. Frequency distribution of range size followed a log‐normal distribution as found in many other animal groups. However, a log‐normal distribution accommodated well the frequency distribution of ecological tolerance, a so far unexplored issue. Range size was correlated with abundance and ecological tolerance, thus supporting the hypothesis that a positive correlation between distribution and abundance is a reflection of interspecific differences in ecological specialization. Larger species tended to have larger ranges and broader ecological tolerance. However, contrary to what known in most vertebrates, not only small‐sized, but also many medium‐to‐large‐sized species exhibited great variability in their range size, probably because tenebrionids are not so strictly influenced by body size constraints (e.g. home ranges) as vertebrates. Moreover, in contrast to other animals, tenebrionid body size does not influence species abundances, probably because these detritivorous animals are not strongly regulated by competition. Finally, contrary to the assumption that rare species should be mainly found among lineages that split from basal nodes, rarity of a tenebrionid species was not influenced by the phylogenetic position of its tribe. However, lineages that split from more basal nodes had lower variability in terms of species geographical distribution, ecological tolerance and abundance, which suggests that lineages that split from more basal nodes are not only morphologically conservative but also tend to have an ecological ‘inertia’.     

Hunting to extinction: biology and regional economy influence extinction risk and the impact of hunting in artiodactyls

Half of all artiodactyls (even-toed hoofed mammals) are threatened with extinction, around double the mammalian average. Here, using a complete species-level phylogeny, we construct a multivariate model to assess for the first time which intrinsic (biological) and extrinsic (anthropogenic and environmental) factors influence variation in extinction risk in artiodactyls. Globally artiodactyls at greatest risk live in economically less developed areas, have older weaning ages and smaller geographical ranges. Our findings suggest that identifying predictors of threat is complicated by interactions between both biological and anthropogenic factors, resulting in differential responses to threatening processes. Artiodactyl species that experience unregulated hunting live in significantly less economically developed areas than those that are not hunted; however, hunted species are more susceptible to extinction if they have slower reproductive rates (older weaning ages). In contrast, risk in non-hunted artiodactyls is unrelated to reproductive rate and more closely associated with the economic development of the region in which they live.     

Body size, biomic specialization and range size of African large mammals

Aim The goal of this paper is to examine the relationships between body size, biomic specialization and range size in the African large mammals, which are defined as all the African species corresponding to the orders Primates, Carnivora, Proboscidea, Perissodactyla, Hyracoidea, Tubulidentata, Artiodactyla and Pholidota. Location The study used the large mammal assemblage from Africa. Methods The degree of biomic specialization of African large mammals is investigated using the biomic specialization index (BSI) for each mammal species, based on the number of biomes it inhabits. Range size for each species is measured as the latitudinal extent of the geographical distribution of the species. We have analysed our data using both conventional cross‐species analyses and phylogenetically independent contrasts. Results There is a polygonal relationship between species biomic specialization and body size. While small and large species are biomic specialists, medium‐sized species are distributed along the whole range of biomic specialization. The latitudinal extent–body size relationship is approximately triangular. Small‐bodied species may have either large or small ranges, whereas large‐bodied ones have only large ranges. A positive correlation between latitudinal extent and biomic specialization is evident, although their relationship is better described as triangular. Main conclusions We found a polygonal relationship between species biomic specialization and body size, which agrees with previous arguments that small‐bodied species have more limited dispersal and, therefore, they may come to occupy a lesser proportion of their potential inhabitable biomes. On the other hand, large‐bodied species are constrained to inhabit biomes with a high productivity. A polygonal relationship between species latitudinal extent and body size in African large mammals agrees with previous studies of the relationship between range size and body size in other continents. The independent study of the macroecological pattern in biomic specialization highlights different factors that influence the body size–range size relationship. Although body size is usually implicated as a correlate of both specialization and geographical range size in large mammals, much of the variation in these variables cannot be attributed to size differences but to biome specific factors such as productivity, area, history, etc.     

Body mass and extinction risk in Australian marsupials: The ‘Critical Weight Range’ revisited

Australian mammals have suffered an exceptionally high rate of decline and extinction over the last two hundred years. Body mass is linked to extinction risk in Australian mammals, but the nature of this association is controversial. A widely held view is that species of intermediate body mass (between 35 and 5500 g, the ‘critical weight range’, CWR) have declined most severely. However, the existence of the CWR has been disputed. In this paper we clarify the relationship of decline status and body mass in Australian marsupials. We show that the form of this relationship differs for ground‐living versus arboreal species, and for species from low versus high rainfall areas. Among ground‐living species and those from low‐rainfall areas, declines were strongly size‐selective and concentrated on species within the CWR. For the remaining species, decline was only weakly related to body mass with no evidence of heightened risk for species of intermediate size. We conclude that for terrestrial species in low rainfall areas, species within the CWR are most at risk of decline and extinction.     

Diet of Neotropical parrots is independent of phylogeny but correlates with body size and geographical range

Body mass and geographical range are two main drivers of diet in animals, yet how these factors influence diet in the morphologically and ecologically diverse avian group of Psittaciformes is little known. We reviewed current knowledge of the diet of Neotropical parrots and assessed the relation between diet (breadth and composition), phylogeny, body mass and geographical range. Diet has been documented for 98 of 165 species, but information is available only for 34 of 59 threatened species, and countries with high species diversity (> 20 species) had few studies (one to seven). Neotropical parrot species consumed 1293 plant species of 125 families. When assessing the relative frequency of different food items in the diet (seed, fruits, flowers, leaves, nectar, bark and stems), we found that parrots mostly exploited seeds (41.9%) and fruits (38.3%) of native species. Diet overlap was very low among genera (0.006–0.321). At the species level, geographical range and body size explained the variation in diet composition. In particular, small parrots of restricted distribution had a distinct diet composition relative to either large or widely distributed species. Although body size and geographical range showed phylogenetic inertia, diet was independent of phylogenetic history. Our review not only reveals ecological factors explaining diet in a generalist group but also exposes information gaps across the Neotropical region.