Estimation of minke whale abundance from an acoustic line transect survey of the Mariana Islands

The minke whale is one of the most abundant species of baleen whales worldwide, yet is rarely sighted in subtropical waters. In the North Pacific, they produce a distinctive sound known as the “boing,” which can be used to acoustically localize individuals. A vessel‐based survey using both visual and passive acoustic monitoring was conducted during the spring of 2007 in a large (616,000 km²) study area encompassing the Mariana Islands. We applied line transect methods to data collected from a towed hydrophone array to estimate the abundance of calling minke whales in our study area. No minke whales were sighted, but there were hundreds of acoustic detections of boings. Computer algorithms were developed to localize calling minke whales from acoustic recordings, resulting in over 30 independent localizations, a six‐fold increase over those estimated during the survey. The two best estimates of abundance of calling minke whales were determined to be 80 and 91 animals (0.13 and 0.15 animals per 1,000 km2, respectively; CV = 34%). These are the first density and abundance estimates for calling minke whales using towed hydrophone array surveys, and the first estimates for this species in the Mariana Islands region. These are considered minimum estimates of the true number of minke whales in the study area.     

SEASONAL PATTERNS IN THE ABUNDANCE AND DISTRIBUTION OF CALIFORNIA CETACEANS, 1991–1992

This study presents a detailed seasonal comparison of the abundance and distribution of cetaceans within 100-150 nmi (185-278 km) of the California coast during 1991 and 1992. The results of a shipboard line-transect survey conducted in July-November 1991 ("summer") were compared to those from aerial line-transect surveys conducted in March-April 1991 and February-April 1992 ("winter"). Using a confidence-interval-based bootstrap procedure, abundance estimates for six of the eleven species included in the comparison exhibited significant (α= 0.05) differences between the winter and summer surveys. Pacific white-sided dolphins ( Lagenorhynchus obliquidens ), Risso's dolphins ( Grampus griseus ), common dolphins ( Delphinus spp.), and northern right whale dolphins ( Lissodelphis borealis ) were significantly more abundant in winter. The abundance of blue whales ( Balaenoptera musculuss ) and gray whales ( Eschrichtius robustus ) reflected well-documented migratory patterns. Fin whales ( B. physalus ) were significantly more abundant during summer. No significant differences in seasonal abundance were identified for Dall's porpoises ( Phocoenoides dalli ), bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ), killer whales ( Orcinus orca ), sperm whales ( Physeter macrocephalus ), or humpback whales ( Megaptera novaeangliae ). Significant north/south shifts in distribution were found for Dall's porpoises, common dolphins, and Pacific white-sided dolphins, and significant inshore/offshore differences were identified for northern right whale dolphins and humpback whales.     

ABUNDANCE OF BLUE AND HUMPBACK WHALES IN THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ESTIMATED BY CAPTURE-RECAPTURE AND LINE-TRANSECT METHODS

We estimated humpback and blue whale abundance from 1991 to 1997 off the west coast of the U. S. and Mexico comparing capture-recapture models based on photographically identified animals and line-transect methods from ship-based surveys. During photo-identification research we obtained 4,212 identifications of 824 humpback whales and 2,403 identifications of 908 blue whales primarily through non-systematic small-boat surveys along the coast of California, Oregon, and Washington. Line-transect surveys from NOAA ships in 1991, 1993, and 1996 covered approximately 39,000 km along the coast of Baja California, California, Oregon, and Washington out to 555 km from shore. The nearshore and clumped distribution of humpback whales allowed photographic identification from small boats to cost-effectively sample a substantial portion of the population, but made it difficult to obtain effective samples in the line-transect surveys covering broad areas. The humpback capture-recapture estimates indicated humpback whale abundance increased over the six years (from 569 to 837). The broader more offshore distribution of blue whales made it harder to obtain a representative sample of identification photographs, but was well suited to the line-transect estimates. The line-transect estimates, after correction for missed animals, indicated approximately 3,000 blue whales (CV = 0.14). Capture-recapture estimates of blue whales were lower than this: approximately 2,000 when using photographs obtained from the line-transect surveys as one of the samples. Comparison of the results from the two methods provides validation, as well as insight into potential biases associated with each method.     

Abundance and Distribution of Sperm Whales in the Canary Islands: Can Sperm Whales in the Archipelago Sustain the Current Level of Ship-Strike Mortalities?

Sperm whales are present in the Canary Islands year-round, suggesting that the archipelago is an important area for this species in the North Atlantic. However, the area experiences one of the highest reported rates of sperm whale ship-strike in the world. Here we investigate if the number of sperm whales found in the archipelago can sustain the current rate of ship-strike mortality. The results of this study may also have implications for offshore areas where concentrations of sperm whales may coincide with high densities of ship traffic, but where ship-strikes may be undocumented. The absolute abundance of sperm whales in an area of 52933 km², covering the territorial waters of the Canary Islands, was estimated from 2668 km of acoustic line-transect survey using Distance sampling analysis. Data on sperm whale diving and acoustic behaviour, obtained from bio-logging, were used to calculate g(0) = 0.92, this is less than one because of occasional extended periods when whales do not echolocate. This resulted in an absolute abundance estimate of 224 sperm whales (95% log-normal CI 120–418) within the survey area. The recruitment capability of this number of whales, some 2.5 whales per year, is likely to be exceeded by the current ship-strike mortality rate. Furthermore, we found areas of higher whale density within the archipelago, many coincident with those previously described, suggesting that these are important habitats for females and immature animals inhabiting the archipelago. Some of these areas are crossed by active shipping lanes increasing the risk of ship-strikes. Given the philopatry in female sperm whales, replacement of impacted whales might be limited. Therefore, the application of mitigation measures to reduce the ship-strike mortality rate seems essential for the conservation of sperm whales in the Canary Islands.     

BLUE WHALE VISUAL AND ACOUSTIC ENCOUNTER RATES IN THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BIGHT

The relationship between blue whale ( Balaenoptera musculus ) visual and acoustic encounter rates was quantitatively evaluated using hourly counts of detected whales during shipboard surveys off southern California. Encounter rates were estimated using temporal, geographic, and weather variables within a generalized additive model framework. Visual encounters (2.06 animals/h, CV = 0.10) varied with subregion, Julian day, time of day, and year. Acoustic encounters of whales producing pulsed A and tonal B call sequences (song; 0.65 animals/h, CV = 0.06) varied by Julian day, survey mode (transit or stationary), and subregion, and encounters of whales producing downswept (D) calls (0.41 animals/h, CV = 0.09) varied by Julian day and the number of animals seen. Inclusion of Julian day in all models reflects the seasonal occurrence of blue whales off southern California; however, the seasonal peak in visual encounters and acoustic encounters of D calling whales (July–August) was offset from the peak in acoustic encounters of singing whales (August–September). The relationship between visual and acoustic encounter rates varied regionally, with significant differences in several northern regions. The number of whales heard D calling was positively related to the number of animals seen, whereas the number of singing whales was not related to visual encounter rate.     

Passive acoustic density estimation of sperm whales in the Tongue of the Ocean,Bahamas

Long‐term passive acoustic monitoring of marine mammals on navy ranges provides the opportunity to better understand the potential impact of sonar on populations. The navy range in Tongue of the Ocean (TOTO), Bahamas contains extensive hydrophone arrays, potentially allowing estimation of the density of deep diving, vocally active species such as the sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus). Previous visual surveys in TOTO have been of limited spatio–temporal coverage and resulted in only sporadic sightings of sperm whales, whereas passive acoustic observations suggest the species is present year round. However, until now the means of acoustically determining the specific number of individuals in each cluster has been limited. We used recently developed algorithms to identify the number of echolocating whales present during a 42 d study period. We screened a 297 h acoustic data set to determine the proportion of time animals were present; fifty 10 min samples during presence were analyzed to estimate the number of individuals vocalizing during each sample. These counts were combined with an independent estimate of the proportion of 10 min periods when tagged animals vocalize. The estimated average density was 0.16 whales/1,000 km² (CV 27%; 95% CI 0.095–0.264). The method is potentially applicable to other areas containing dense hydrophone arrays.     

Acoustic recordings,biological observations,and genetic identification of a rare(?) beaked whale in the North Pacific: Mesoplodon carlhubbsi

Although Hubbs' beaked whale (Mesoplodon carlhubbsi) was previously known from over 60 strandings on both sides of the North Pacific, it had been identified alive in the wild only once, off Oregon in 1994. In September 2021, we conducted a search effort for beaked whales off the coast of Oregon using a towed hydrophone array and a visual search team. Approximately 350 km off the Columbia River mouth, we detected the vocalizations of an unidentified mesoplodont whale; we stopped our vessel and waited in the area until two unidentified juvenile Mesoplodon surfaced and stayed near our vessel for almost 2 hr. During that time, we took numerous photographs and videos, made behavioral observations, and recorded their vocalizations. The DNA sequence from a biopsy sample identified them as M. carlhubbsi. In this paper, we discuss our biological observations, including color patterning and acquired markings, behavioral observations, and describe for the first time the acoustic characteristics of this species. We confirm that M. carlhubbsi is the source of a previously unidentified acoustic signal known as BW37V, and we update what is known about the at-sea distribution of this species based on previous recordings and observational records.     

Visual and acoustic surveys for North Atlantic right whales,Eubalaena glacialis,in Cape Cod Bay,Massachusetts, 2001–2005: Management implications

North Atlantic right whales, Eubalaena glacialis, remain endangered, primarily due to excessive anthropogenic mortality. Current management protocols in US waters are triggered by identifying the presence of at least one right whale in a management area. We assessed whether acoustic detection of right whale contact calls can work as an alternative to visual aerial surveys for establishing their presence. Aerial survey and acoustic monitoring were conducted in Cape Cod Bay, Massachusetts, in 2001–2005 and used to evaluate and compare right whale detections. Over the 58 d with simultaneous aerial and acoustic coverage, aerial surveys saw whales on approximately two-thirds of the days during which acoustic monitoring heard whales. There was no strong relationship between numbers of whales seen during aerial surveys and numbers of contact calls detected on survey days. Results indicate acoustic monitoring is a more reliable mechanism than aerial survey for detecting right whales. Because simple detection is sufficient to trigger current management protocols, continuous, autonomous acoustic monitoring provides information of immediate management utility more reliably than aerial surveillance. Aerial surveys are still required to provide data for estimating population parameters and for visually assessing the frequency and severity of injuries from shipping and fishing and detecting injured and entangled right whales.     

ABUNDANCE OF CETACEANS IN THE OCEANIC NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO, 1996–2001

The Gulf of Mexico is a subtropical marginal sea of the western North Atlantic Ocean with a diverse cetacean community. Ship-based, line-transect abundance surveys were conducted in oceanic waters (>200 m deep) of the northern Gulf within U. S. waters (380,432 km²) during spring from 1996 to 1997 and from 1999 to 2001. Data from these five surveys were pooled and minimum abundance estimates were based on 12,162 km of effort and 512 sightings of at least 19 species. The most commonly sighted species (number of groups) were pantropical spotted dolphin, Stenella attenuata (164); sperm whale, Physeter macrocephalus (67); dwarf/pygmy sperm whale, Kogia simalbreviceps (58); Risso's dolphin, Grampus griseus (38); and bottlenose dolphin, Tursiops truncatus (24). The most abundant species (number of individuals; coefficient of variation) were S. attenuata (91,321; 0.16); Clymene dolphin, S. clymene (17,355; 0.65); spinner dolphin, S. longirostris (11,971; 0.71); and striped dolphin, S. coeruleoalba (6,505; 0.43). The only large whales sighted were P. macrocephalus (1,349; 0.23) and Bryde's whale, Balaenopteraedeni (40; 0.61). Abundances for other species or genera ranged from 95 to 2,388 animals. Cetaceans were sighted throughout the oceanic northern Gulf and, whereas many species were widely distributed, some had more regional distributions.     

A Simulation Study of Acoustic-Assisted Tracking of Whales for Mark-Recapture Surveys

Collecting enough data to obtain reasonable abundance estimates of whales is often difficult, particularly when studying rare species. Passive acoustics can be used to detect whale sounds and are increasingly used to estimate whale abundance. Much of the existing effort centres on the use of acoustics to estimate abundance directly, e.g. analysing detections in a distance sampling framework. Here, we focus on acoustics as a tool incorporated within mark-recapture surveys. In this context, acoustic tools are used to detect and track whales, which are then photographed or biopsied to provide data for mark-recapture analyses. The purpose of incorporating acoustics is to increase the encounter rate beyond using visual searching only. While this general approach is not new, its utility is rarely quantified. This paper predicts the “acoustically-assisted” encounter rate using a discrete-time individual-based simulation of whales and survey vessel. We validate the simulation framework using existing data from studies of sperm whales. We then use the framework to predict potential encounter rates in a study of Antarctic blue whales. We also investigate the effects of a number of the key parameters on encounter rate. Mean encounter rates from the simulation of sperm whales matched well with empirical data. Variance of encounter rate, however, was underestimated. The simulation of Antarctic blue whales found that passive acoustics should provide a 1.7–3.0 fold increase in encounter rate over visual-only methods. Encounter rate was most sensitive to acoustic detection range, followed by vocalisation rate. During survey planning and design, some indication of the relationship between expected sample size and effort is paramount; this simulation framework can be used to predict encounter rates and establish this relationship. For a case in point, the simulation framework indicates unequivocally that real-time acoustic tracking should be considered for quantifying the abundance of Antarctic blue whales via mark-recapture methods.     

Vocal activity of tropical dolphins is inhibited by the presence of killer whales,Orcinus orca

Research has suggested killer whale (Orcinus orca) predation may affect cetacean vocal behavior; however, few data exist to test this hypothesis. Data collected during 40,976 km of visual and acoustic shipboard surveys in the tropical Pacific Ocean, including 1,232 detections of 13 species, were examined to determine if changes in dolphin vocal activity could be attributed to the presence of killer whales. Generalized linear models and Random Forest analyses were used to test the hypothesis that dolphin vocal activity was related to the distance and time to the nearest killer whale sighting. Both results show that dolphin vocalizations were inversely correlated with the temporal proximity of killer whales (P < 0.05). Despite the relative rarity of killer whales in the tropics, they appear to influence vocal behavior of nearby dolphin schools. This disruption in communication may not significantly impact interactions necessary for survival in tropical waters where killer whale density is low. However, in temperate climates, where increased productivity supports a greater abundance of killer whales, this interruption in communication may have a greater impact. The lower incidence of whistling dolphins in temperate waters may be related to the greater abundance of killer whales in these areas.     

TWO TYPES OF BLUE WHALE CALLS RECORDED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA

At one time blue whales were found throughout the Gulf of Alaska, however, none have been sighted there in post-whaling era surveys. To determine if blue whales ( Balaenoptera musculus ) might now occur in the Gulf of Alaska, an array of hydrophones was deployed there in October 1999. Data were retrieved in May 2000 and in June 2001. Spectrograms from a random subsample comprising 15% of the ∼63,000 h of data were visually examined for blue whale calls. Call types attributed to both northeastern and northwestern Pacific blue whales were recorded. Both of these call types were recorded seasonally from the initial deployment date in October 1999 through the third week of December 1999 and then from July 2000 through mid-December 2000. Both call types were regularly recorded on the same hydrophone at the same time indicating clear temporal and spatial overlap of the animals producing these calls. Two blue whale call types were recorded in the Gulf of Alaska suggesting that perhaps two stocks use this area. The northeastern call type has now been documented from the equator up to at least 55°N in the eastern North Pacific.     

Sperm whale depredation of sablefish longline gear in the northeast Pacific Ocean

Interactions between marine mammals and fisheries include competition for prey (catch), marine mammal entanglement in fishing gear, and catch removal off fishing gear (depredation). We estimated the magnitude of sperm whale depredation on a major North Pacific longline fishery (sablefish) using data collected during annual longline surveys. Sperm whale depredation occurs while the longline gear is off‐bottom during retrieval. Sperm whales were observed on 16% of longline survey sampling days, mostly (95% of sightings) over the continental slope. Sightings were most common in the central and eastern Gulf of Alaska (98% of sightings), occasional in the western Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands, and absent in the Bering Sea. Longline survey catches were commonly preyed upon when sperm whales were present (65% of sightings), as evidenced by damaged fish. Neither sperm whale presence (P = 0.71) nor depredation rate (P = 0.78) increased significantly from 1998 to 2004. Longline survey catch rates were about 2% less at locations where depredation was observed, but the effect was not significant (P = 0.34). Estimated sperm whale depredation was <1% of the annual sablefish longline fishery catch off Alaska during 1998 to 2004.     

Inferring trackline detection probabilities,g(0), for cetaceans from apparent densities in different survey conditions

Visual line‐transect surveys are commonly used to estimate cetacean abundance. A key parameter in such studies is g(0), the probability of detecting an animal that is directly on the transect line. This is typically considered to be constant for a species across survey conditions. A method is developed to estimate the relative values of g(0) in different survey conditions (Beaufort state) by comparing Beaufort‐specific density estimates. The approach is based on fitting generalized additive models, with the presence of a sighting on a survey segment as the dependent variable, Beaufort state as the key explanatory variable, and year, latitude, and longitude as nuisance variables to control for real differences in density over time and space. Values of relative g(0) are estimated for 20 cetacean taxa using 175,000 km of line‐transect survey data from the eastern and central Pacific Ocean from 1986 to 2010. Results show that g(0) decreases as Beaufort state increases, even for visually conspicuous species. This effect is greatest for the least conspicuous species (rough‐toothed dolphins, beaked whales, minke whales, and dwarf and pygmy sperm whales). Ignoring these large effects results in a nontrivial bias in cetacean abundance estimates.     

The relationship among oceanography, prey fields, and beaked whale foraging habitat in the Tongue of the Ocean

Beaked whales, specifically Blainville's (Mesoplodon densirostris) and Cuvier's (Ziphius cavirostris), are known to feed in the Tongue of the Ocean, Bahamas. These whales can be reliably detected and often localized within the Atlantic Undersea Test and Evaluation Center (AUTEC) acoustic sensor system. The AUTEC range is a regularly spaced bottom mounted hydrophone array covering >350 nm(2) providing a valuable network to record anthropogenic noise and marine mammal vocalizations. Assessments of the potential risks of noise exposure to beaked whales have historically occurred in the absence of information about the physical and biological environments in which these animals are distributed. In the fall of 2008, we used a downward looking 38 kHz SIMRAD EK60 echosounder to measure prey scattering layers concurrent with fine scale turbulence measurements from an autonomous turbulence profiler. Using an 8 km, 4-leaf clover sampling pattern, we completed a total of 7.5 repeat surveys with concurrently measured physical and biological oceanographic parameters, so as to examine the spatiotemporal scales and relationships among turbulence levels, biological scattering layers, and beaked whale foraging activity. We found a strong correlation among increased prey density and ocean vertical structure relative to increased click densities. Understanding the habitats of these whales and their utilization patterns will improve future models of beaked whale habitat as well as allowing more comprehensive assessments of exposure risk to anthropogenic sound.     

Size Distribution of Sperm Whales Acoustically Identified during Long Term Deep-Sea Monitoring in the Ionian Sea

The sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus) emits a typical short acoustic signal, defined as a “click”, almost continuously while diving. It is produced in different time patterns to acoustically explore the environment and communicate with conspecifics. Each emitted click has a multi-pulse structure, resulting from the production of the sound within the sperm whale’s head. A Stable Inter Pulse Interval (Stable IPI) can be identified among the pulses that compose a single click. Applying specific algorithms, the measurement of this interval provides useful information to assess the total length of the animal recorded. In January 2005, a cabled hydrophone array was deployed at a depth of 2,100 m in the Central Mediterranean Sea, 25 km offshore Catania (Ionian Sea). The acoustic antenna, named OνDE (Ocean noise Detection Experiment), was in operation until November 2006. OνDE provided real time acoustic data used to perform Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) of cetacean sound emissions. In this work, an innovative approach was applied to automatically measure the Stable IPI of the clicks, performing a cepstrum analysis to the energy (square amplitude) of the signals. About 2,100 five-minute recordings were processed to study the size distribution of the sperm whales detected during the OνDE long term deep-sea acoustic monitoring. Stable IPIs were measured in the range between 2.1 ms and 6.4 ms. The equations of Gordon (1991) and of Growcott (2011) were used to convert the IPIs into measures of size. The results revealed that the sperm whales recorded were distributed in length from about 7.5 m to 14 m. The size category most represented was from 9 m to 12 m (adult females or juvenile males) and specimens longer than 14 m (old males) seemed to be absent.     

Geographic distribution of the Cross Seamount beaked whale based on acoustic detections

Beaked whales produce frequency-modulated echolocation pulses that appear to be species-specific, allowing passive acoustic monitoring to play a role in understanding spatio-temporal patterns. The Cross Seamount beaked whale is known only from its unique echolocation signal (BWC) with no confirmed species identification. This beaked whale spans the Pacific Ocean from the Mariana Archipelago to Baja California, Mexico, south to the equator, but only as far north as latitude 29°N. Within these warm waters, 92% of BWC detections occurred at night, 6% during crepuscular periods, and only 2% during daylight hours. Detections of BWC signals on drifting recorders with a vertical hydrophone array at 150 m depth demonstrated that foraging often occurred shallow in the water column (<150 m). No other species of beaked whale to date has been documented foraging in waters this shallow. Given their nocturnal, shallow foraging dives, this species appears to prefer prey that may be available in the water column only during those hours. The foraging behavior of Cross Seamount beaked whales appears to be unique among all beaked whales, and these findings contribute additional ecological and acoustic information which can help guide future efforts to identify this cryptic whale.     

Passive acoustic monitoring predicts daily variation in North Atlantic right whale presence and relative abundance in Roseway Basin,Canada

North Atlantic right whale monitoring in Roseway Basin, Canada, is primarily based on short‐term (<14 d) visual surveys conducted during August–September. Variability in survey effort has been the biggest limiting factor to studying changes in the population's occurrence and habitat use. Such efforts could be enhanced considerably using passive acoustic monitoring (PAM). We sought to determine if variation in whale presence, relative abundance, demography, and/or behavior (estimated through visual surveys) could be explained by variation in three right whale call types in this habitat. A generalized linear model was fit to 23 d of concurrent PAM and visual monitoring during four summers within the Roseway Basin Right Whale Critical Habitat boundaries. The model revealed significant positive relationships between relative abundance, call counts and presence of surface‐active group behavior. PAM can refine daily right whale presence estimates. While visual observations (n = 23 d) implied a 40% decline in right whale presence during 2014–2015 relative to 2004–2005, PAM data (n = 211 d) showed right whales were present between 71%–85% of survey days throughout all years analyzed. We demonstrate that PAM is a useful tool to extend periods of right whale monitoring, especially in areas where visual monitoring efforts may be limited.     

Estimating Abundance From One-Dimensional Passive Acoustic Surveys

ABSTRACT Conventional distance sampling, the most-used method of estimating animal density and abundance, requires ranges to detected individuals, which are not easily measured for vocalizations. However, in some circumstances the sequential pattern of detection of vocalizations along a transect line gives information about the range of detection. Thus, from a one-dimensional acoustic point-transect survey (i.e., records of vocalizations detected or not detected at regularly spaced listening stations) it is possible to obtain a useful estimate of density or abundance. I developed equations for estimation of density for one-dimensional surveys. Using simulations I found that for the method to have little bias when both range of detection and rate of vocalization need to be estimated, stations needed to be spaced at 30–80% of the range of detection and the rate of vocalization should be >0.7. If either the range of detection or rate of vocalization is known, conditions are relaxed, and when both parameters are known the method works well almost universally. In favorable conditions for one-dimensional methods, estimated abundances have overall errors not much larger than those from conventional line-transect distance sampling. The methods appeared useful when applied to real acoustic data from whale surveys. The techniques may also be useful in surveys with nonacoustic detection of animals.     

Boom to bust? Implications for the continued rapid growth of the eastern Australian humpback whale population despite recovery

Despite heavy overexploitation and near extirpation, some populations of large whales are recovering. Monitoring their recovery has important implications for conservation, management and our understanding of population dynamics and recovery in large mammals. The eastern Australian population of humpback whales was hunted to near-extirpation by the early 1960s. Despite this, the population started to recover, and structured surveys were initiated in the 1980s. These surveys comprise one of the longest and most consistent series of surveys of a population of whales in the world. Collectively, they have demonstrated a rapid recovery of the population with a long-term average rate of increase of 10.9% per annum. Here, we present the results of the last three surveys, conducted in 2007, 2010 and 2015. The 2015 survey shows that the population is essentially recovered, with abundance estimated at 24,545 whales (95% confidence interval 21,631–27,851), and yet continues to grow at a rapid rate. Modeling the rate of growth and abundance suggests that either the whales are heading for a higher than expected abundance of at least 40,000 whales or that an irruption may occur with models suggesting a peak in whale abundance in 2021–2026. Understanding the possible future scenarios of this population is critical to its management. This situation also presents a rare opportunity to study in detail the growth of a well-defined population of large mammal as it recovers from severe depletion.