Global dynamics of an epidemiological model with age of infection and disease relapse

In this paper, an epidemiological model with age of infection and disease relapse is investigated. The basic reproduction number for the model is identified, and it is shown to be a sharp threshold to completely determine the global dynamics of the model. By analysing the corresponding characteristic equations, the local stability of a disease-free steady state and an endemic steady state of the model is established. By means of suitable Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, it is verified that if the basic reproduction number is less than unity, the disease-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable, and hence the disease dies out; if the basic reproduction number is greater than unity, the endemic steady state is globally asymptotically stable and the disease becomes endemic.     

Global dynamics of a reaction and diffusion model for Lyme disease

This paper is devoted to the mathematical analysis of a reaction and diffusion model for Lyme disease. In the case of a bounded spatial habitat, we obtain the global stability of either disease-free or endemic steady state in terms of the basic reproduction number R?. In the case of an unbounded spatial habitat, we establish the existence of the spreading speed of the disease and its coincidence with the minimal wave speed for traveling fronts. Our analytic results show that R? is a threshold value for the global dynamics and that the spreading speed is linearly determinate.     

The logistic equation with a diffusionally coupled delay

The asymptotic behaviour of a logistic equation with diffusion on a bounded region and a diffusionally coupled delay is investigated. An equivelent parabolic system is derived for certain types of delays. Using a Layapunov functional, sufficient conditions for the global asymptotic stability of the constant steady state are obtained. When the global stability is lost, using Hopf's bifurcation theory, existence of travelling waves is shown for ring-like and periodic one dimensional habitats.     

Travelling wave solutions of diffusive Lotka-Volterra equations

We establish the existence of travelling wave solutions for two reaction diffusion systems based on the Lotka-Volterra model for predator and prey interactions. For simplicity, we consider only 1 space dimension. The waves are of transition front type, analogous to the travelling wave solutions discussed by Fisher and Kolmogorov et al. for a scalar reaction diffusion equation. The waves discussed here are not necessarily monotone. For any speed c there is a travelling wave solution of transition front type. For one of the systems discussed here, there is a distinguished speed c^* dividing the waves into two types, waves of speed c < c^* being one type, waves of speed c ? c^* being of the other type. We present numerical evidence that for this system the wave of speed c^* is stable, and that c^* is an asymptotic speed of propagation in some sense. For the other system, waves of all speeds are in some sense stable. The proof of existence uses a shooting argument and a Lyapunov function. We also discuss some possible biological implications of the existence of these waves.     

Travelling waves in a tissue interaction model for skin pattern formation

Tissue interaction plays a major role in many morphogenetic processes, particularly those associated with skin organ primordia. We examine travelling wave solutions in a tissue interaction model for skin pattern formation which is firmly based on the known biology. From a phase space analysis we conjecture the existence of travelling waves with specific wave speeds. Subsequently, analytical approximations to the wave profiles are derived using perturbation methods. We then show numerically that such travelling wave solutions do exist and that they are in good agreement with our analytical results. Finally, the biological implications of our analysis are discussed.     

Complex Dynamics in an Eco-epidemiological Model

The presence of infectious diseases can dramatically change the dynamics of ecological systems. By studying an SI-type disease in the predator population of a Rosenzweig–MacArthur model, we find a wealth of complex dynamics that do not exist in the absence of the disease. Numerical solutions indicate the existence of saddle–node and subcritical Hopf bifurcations, turning points and branching in periodic solutions, and a period-doubling cascade into chaos. This means that there are regions of bistability, in which the disease can have both a stabilising and destabilising effect. We also find tristability, which involves an endemic torus (or limit cycle), an endemic equilibrium and a disease-free limit cycle. The endemic torus seems to disappear via a homoclinic orbit. Notably, some of these dynamics occur when the basic reproduction number is less than one, and endemic situations would not be expected at all. The multistable regimes render the eco-epidemic system very sensitive to perturbations and facilitate a number of regime shifts, some of which we find to be irreversible.     

Rational behavioral response and the transmission of STDs

The susceptible-infected (SI) model is extended by allowing for individual optimal choices of self-protective actions against infection, where agents differ with respect to preferences and costs of self-protection. It is shown that a unique endemic equilibrium prevalence exists when the basic reproductive number of a STD is strictly greater than unity, and that the disease-free equilibrium is the unique steady state equilibrium when the basic reproductive number is less than or equal to one. Unlike in models that take individual behavior as given and fixed, the endemic equilibrium prevalence need not vary monotonically with respect to the basic reproductive number. Specifically, with endogenously determined self-protective behavior, a reduction in the basic reproductive number may in fact increase the endemic equilibrium prevalence. The global stability of the endemic steady state is established for the case of a homogeneous population by showing that, for any non-zero initial disease prevalence, there exists an equilibrium path which converges to the endemic steady state.     

Modelling the spatio-temporal dynamics of multi-species host-parasitoid interactions: heterogeneous patterns and ecological implications

A mathematical model of the spatio-temporal dynamics of a two host, two parasitoid system is presented. There is a coupling of the four species through parasitism of both hosts by one of the parasitoids. The model comprises a system of four reaction-diffusion equations. The underlying system of ordinary differential equations, modelling the host-parasitoid population dynamics, has a unique positive steady state and is shown to be capable of undergoing Hopf bifurcations, leading to limit cycle kinetics which give rise to oscillatory temporal dynamics. The stability of the positive steady state has a fundamental impact on the spatio-temporal dynamics: stable travelling waves of parasitoid invasion exhibit increasingly irregular periodic travelling wave behaviour when key parameter values are increased beyond their Hopf bifurcation point. These irregular periodic travelling waves give rise to heterogeneous spatio-temporal patterns of host and parasitoid abundance. The generation of heterogeneous patterns has ecological implications and the concepts of temporary host refuge and niche formation are considered.     

An age-structured epidemic model of rotavirus with vaccination

The recent approval of a rotavirus vaccine in Mexico motivates this study on the potential impact of the use of such a vaccine on rotavirus prevention and control. An age-structured model that describes the rotavirus transmission dynamics of infections is introduced. Conditions that guarantee the local and global stability analysis of the disease-free steady state distribution as well as the existence of an endemic steady state distribution are established. The impact of maternal antibodies on the implementation of vaccine is evaluated. Model results are used to identify optimal age-dependent vaccination strategies. A convergent numerical scheme for the model is introduced but not implemented. This paper is dedicated to Prof. K. P. Hadeler, who continues to push the frontier of knowledge in mathematical biology.     

Homoclinic solutions in mechanical systems with small dissipation. Application to DNA dynamics

 This paper analyzes the problem of persistence of homoclinic solutions to perturbed systems of second order ODE's. These systems arise from PDE's, when considering solutions in the form of travelling waves. It is shown that homoclinic solutions persist in the presence of dissipation. Dissipation can be balanced by nonautonomous terms of compact support, which are controlled by a single parameter. This result is applied to prove the existence of torsional pulse-like travelling waves propagating along a nonelastic DNA molecule. In this case the energy is added to system by advancing the RNA polymerase. Received: 17 August 2000 / Revised version: 26 October 2001 / Published online: 14 March 2002     

Stability and Bifurcations in an Epidemic Model with Varying Immunity Period

An epidemic model with distributed time delay is derived to describe the dynamics of infectious diseases with varying immunity. It is shown that solutions are always positive, and the model has at most two steady states: disease-free and endemic. It is proved that the disease-free equilibrium is locally and globally asymptotically stable. When an endemic equilibrium exists, it is possible to analytically prove its local and global stability using Lyapunov functionals. Bifurcation analysis is performed using DDE-BIFTOOL and traceDDE to investigate different dynamical regimes in the model using numerical continuation for different values of system parameters and different integral kernels.     

Aggregative effects for a reaction-advection equation

The time course of a single population subject to logistic growth and drift towards regions of increasing population density is modelled by a quasilinear differential equation of the first order. The stationary solutions and the travelling waves are investigated. The existence of travelling waves with compact support is used to prove, among other properties, that populations initially concentrated in a finite region preserve this property for all future times.Visiting A. von Humboldt Fellow at the Universität Tübingen, Lehrstuhl für Biomathematik, Auf der Morgenstelle 28, D-7406 Tübingen 1     

Diseases with chronic stage in a population with varying size

An epidemiological model of hepatitis C with a chronic infectious stage and variable population size is introduced. A non-structured baseline ODE model which supports exponential solutions is discussed. The normalized version where the unknown functions are the proportions of the susceptible, infected, and chronic individuals in the total population is analyzed. It is shown that sustained oscillations are not possible and the endemic proportions either approach the disease-free or an endemic equilibrium. The expanded model incorporates the chronic age of the individuals. Partial analysis of this age-structured model is carried out. The global asymptotic stability of the infection-free state is established as well as local asymptotic stability of the endemic non-uniform steady state distribution under some additional conditions. A numerical method for the chronic-age-structured model is introduced. It is shown that this numerical scheme is consistent and convergent of first order. Simulations based on the numerical method suggest that in the structured case the endemic equilibrium may be unstable and sustained oscillations are possible. Closer look at the reproduction number reveals that treatment strategies directed towards speeding up the transition from acute to chronic stage in effect contribute to the eradication of the disease.     

Endemic threshold results in an age-duration-structured population model for HIV infection

In this paper we consider an age-duration-structured population model for HIV infection in a homosexual community. First we investigate the invasion problem to establish the basic reproduction ratio R(0) for the HIV/AIDS epidemic by which we can state the threshold criteria: The disease can invade into the completely susceptible population if R(0)>1, whereas it cannot if R(0)<1. Subsequently, we examine existence and uniqueness of endemic steady states. We will show sufficient conditions for a backward or a forward bifurcation to occur when the basic reproduction ratio crosses unity. That is, in contrast with classical epidemic models, for our HIV model there could exist multiple endemic steady states even if R(0) is less than one. Finally, we show sufficient conditions for the local stability of the endemic steady states.     

Calcium waves with fast buffers and mechanical effects

In the paper we consider the existence of calcium travelling waves for systems with fast buffers. We prove the convergence of the travelling waves to an asymptotic limit as the kinetic coefficients characterizing the interaction between calcium and buffers tend to infinity. To be more precise, we prove the convergence of the speeds as well as the calcium component concentration profile to the profile of the travelling wave of the reduced equation. Additionally, we take into account the effect of coupling between the mechanical and chemical processes and show the existence as well the monotonicity of the profiles of concentrations. This property guarantees their positivity.     

Periodic solutions: a robust numerical method for an S-I-R model of epidemics

 We describe and analyze a numerical method for an S-I-R type epidemic model. We prove that it is unconditionally convergent and that solutions it produces share many qualitative and quantitative properties of the solution of the differential problem being approximated. Finally, we establish explicit sufficient conditions for the unique endemic steady state of the system to be unstable and we use our numerical algorithm to approximate the solution in such cases and discover that it can be periodic, just as suggested by the instability of the endemic steady state. Received: 1 September 1995 / Revised version: 30 April 1997     

Travelling Waves in Hybrid Chemotaxis Models

Hybrid models of chemotaxis combine agent-based models of cells with partial differential equation models of extracellular chemical signals. In this paper, travelling wave properties of hybrid models of bacterial chemotaxis are investigated. Bacteria are modelled using an agent-based (individual-based) approach with internal dynamics describing signal transduction. In addition to the chemotactic behaviour of the bacteria, the individual-based model also includes cell proliferation and death. Cells consume the extracellular nutrient field (chemoattractant), which is modelled using a partial differential equation. Mesoscopic and macroscopic equations representing the behaviour of the hybrid model are derived and the existence of travelling wave solutions for these models is established. It is shown that cell proliferation is necessary for the existence of non-transient (stationary) travelling waves in hybrid models. Additionally, a numerical comparison between the wave speeds of the continuum models and the hybrid models shows good agreement in the case of weak chemotaxis and qualitative agreement for the strong chemotaxis case. In the case of slow cell adaptation, we detect oscillating behaviour of the wave, which cannot be explained by mean-field approximations.     

一个具有年龄结构的单种群离散反应扩散模型的波前解

利用上下解方法研究了一个具有年龄结构的单种群离散反应扩散模型波前解的存在性,并证明了存在具有临界波速的波前解.     

From periodic travelling waves to travelling fronts in the spike-diffuse-spike model of dendritic waves

In the vertebrate brain excitatory synaptic contacts typically occur on the tiny evaginations of neuron dendritic surface known as dendritic spines. There is clear evidence that spine heads are endowed with voltage-dependent excitable channels and that action potentials invade spines. Computational models are being increasingly used to gain insight into the functional significance of a spine with an excitable membrane. The spike-diffuse-spike (SDS) model is one such model that admits to a relatively straightforward mathematical analysis. In this paper we demonstrate that not only can the SDS model support solitary travelling pulses, already observed numerically in more detailed biophysical models, but that it has periodic travelling wave solutions. The exact mathematical treatment of periodic travelling waves in the SDS model is used, within a kinematic framework, to predict the existence of connections between two periodic spike trains of different interspike interval. The associated wave front in the sequence of interspike intervals travels with a constant velocity without degradation of shape, and might therefore be used for the robust encoding of information.