The Site-Frequency Spectrum of Linked Sites

The site-frequency spectrum, representing the distribution of allele frequencies at a set of polymorphic sites, is a commonly used summary statistic in population genetics. Explicit forms of the spectrum are known for both models with and without selection if independence among sites is assumed. The availability of these explicit forms has allowed for maximum likelihood estimation of selection, developed first in the Poisson random field model of Sawyer and Hartl, which is now the primary method for estimating selection directly from DNA sequence data. The independence assumption, which amounts to assume free recombination between sites, is, however, a limiting case for many population genetics models. Here, we extend the site-frequency spectrum theory to consider the case where the sites are completely linked. We use diffusion approximation to calculate the joint distribution of the allele frequencies of linked sites for models without selection and for models with equal coefficient selection. The joint distribution is derived by first constructing Green’s functions corresponding to multiallele diffusion equations. We show that the site-frequency spectrum is highly correlated between frequencies that are complementary (i.e., sum to 1), and the correlation is significantly elevated by positive selection. The results presented here can be used to extend the Poisson random field to allow for estimating selection for correlated sites. More generally, the Green’s function construction should be able to aid in studying the genetic drift of multiple alleles in other cases.     

Recombination and the properties of Tajima's D in the context of approximate-likelihood calculation

I show that Tajima's D, a commonly used summary of the site-frequency spectrum for single-nucleotide polymorphism data, is a biased summary of the site-frequency spectrum. Under neutral models, this bias depends on the population recombination rate. This bias of D in summarizing the data makes inference of demographic parameters sensitive to assumptions about recombination rates.     

Inferring selection in partially sequenced regions

A common approach for identifying loci influenced by positive selection involves scanning large portions of the genome for regions that are inconsistent with the neutral equilibrium model or represent outliers relative to the empirical distribution of some aspect of the data. Once identified, partial sequence is generated spanning this more localized region in order to quantify the site-frequency spectrum and evaluate the data with tests of neutrality and selection. This method is widely used as partial sequencing is less expensive with regard to both time and money. Here, we demonstrate that this approach can lead to biased maximum likelihood estimates of selection parameters and reduced rejection rates, with some parameter combinations resulting in clearly misleading results. Most significantly, for a commonly used sample size in Drosophila population genetics (i.e., n = 12), the estimate of the target of selection has a large mean square error and the strength of selection is severely under estimated when the true selected site has not been sampled. We propose sequencing approaches that are much more likely to accurately localize the target and estimate the strength of selection. Additionally, we examine the performance of a commonly used test of selection under a variety of recurrent and single sweep models.     

Revisiting santa rosalia to unfold a degeneracy of classic models of speciation

Abstract Many classic models of speciation incorporate assortative mating based on mating groups, such as plants with different flowering times, and they investigate whether an ecological trait under disruptive natural selection becomes genetically associated with the selectively neutral mating trait. It is well known that this genetic association is potently destroyed by recombination. In this note, we point out a more fundamental difficulty: if a "knife-edge" symmetry assumption of previous models is violated, then the mating trait is no longer neutral and sexual selection eliminates the polymorphism in the mating locus. This result strengthens the growing consensus that magic traits are the more likely route to nonallopatric speciation. We expand the model assuming also ecological selection on the mating trait and investigate the conditions for natural selection to overcome sexual selection and maintain mating polymorphism; we find that the combination of natural and sexual selection can cause also bistability of allele frequencies.     

Fluctuating Selection Models and Mcdonald-Kreitman Type Analyses

It is likely that the strength of selection acting upon a mutation varies through time due to changes in the environment. However, most population genetic theory assumes that the strength of selection remains constant. Here we investigate the consequences of fluctuating selection pressures on the quantification of adaptive evolution using McDonald-Kreitman (MK) style approaches. In agreement with previous work, we show that fluctuating selection can generate evidence of adaptive evolution even when the expected strength of selection on a mutation is zero. However, we also find that the mutations, which contribute to both polymorphism and divergence tend, on average, to be positively selected during their lifetime, under fluctuating selection models. This is because mutations that fluctuate, by chance, to positive selected values, tend to reach higher frequencies in the population than those that fluctuate towards negative values. Hence the evidence of positive adaptive evolution detected under a fluctuating selection model by MK type approaches is genuine since fixed mutations tend to be advantageous on average during their lifetime. Never-the-less we show that methods tend to underestimate the rate of adaptive evolution when selection fluctuates.     

Stable two-allele polymorphisms maintained by fluctuating fitnesses and seed banks: protecting the blues in Linanthus parryae

Motivated by data demonstrating fluctuating relative and absolute fitnesses for white- versus blue-flowered morphs of the desert annual Linanthus parryae, we present conditions under which temporally fluctuating selection and fluctuating contributions to a persistent seed bank will maintain a stable single-locus polymorphism. In L. parryae, blue flower color is determined by a single dominant allele. To disentangle the underlying diversity-maintaining mechanism from the mathematical complications associated with departures from Hardy-Weinberg genotype frequencies and dominance, we successively analyze a haploid model, a diploid model with three distinguishable genotypes, and a diploid model with complete dominance. For each model, we present conditions for the maintenance of a stable polymorphism, then use a diffusion approximation to describe the long-term fluctuations associated with these polymorphisms. Our protected polymorphism analyses show that a genotype whose arithmetic and geometric mean relative fitnesses are both less than one can persist if its relative fitness exceeds one in years that produce the most offspring. This condition is met by data from a population of L. parryae whose white morph has higher fitness (seed set) only in years of relatively heavy rain fall. The data suggest that the observed polymorphism may be explained by fluctuating selection. However, the yearly variation in flower color frequencies cannot be fully explained by our simple models, which ignore age structure and possible selection in the seed bank. We address two additional questions--one mathematical, the other biological--concerning the applicability of diffusion approximations to intense selection and the applicability of long-term predictions to datasets spanning decades for populations with long-lived seed banks.     

Investigating the Interactions of Yeast Prions: [SWI+], [PSI+], and [PIN+]

The relationship between quantitative genetics and population genetics has been studied for nearly a century, almost since the existence of these two disciplines. Here we ask to what extent quantitative genetic models in which selection is assumed to operate on a polygenic trait predict adaptive fixations that may lead to footprints in the genome (selective sweeps). We study two-locus models of stabilizing selection (with and without genetic drift) by simulations and analytically. For symmetric viability selection we find that ∼16% of the trajectories may lead to fixation if the initial allele frequencies are sampled from the neutral site-frequency spectrum and the effect sizes are uniformly distributed. However, if the population is preadapted when it undergoes an environmental change (i.e., sits in one of the equilibria of the model), the fixation probability decreases dramatically. In other two-locus models with general viabilities or an optimum shift, the proportion of adaptive fixations may increase to >24%. Similarly, genetic drift leads to a higher probability of fixation. The predictions of alternative quantitative genetics models, initial conditions, and effect-size distributions are also discussed.     

Partial protection from cyclical selection generates a high level of polymorphism at multiple non‐neutral sites

Temporally varying selection is known to maintain genetic polymorphism under certain restricted conditions. However, if part of a population can escape from selective pressure, a condition called the “storage effect” is produced, which greatly promotes balanced polymorphism. We investigate whether seasonally fluctuating selection can maintain polymorphism at multiple loci, if cyclically fluctuating selection is not acting on a subpopulation called a “refuge.” A phenotype with a seasonally oscillating optimum is determined by alleles at multiple sites, across which the effects of mutations on phenotype are distributed randomly. This model resulted in long‐term polymorphism at multiple sites, during which allele frequencies oscillate heavily, greatly increasing the level of nonneutral polymorphism. The level of polymorphism at linked neutral sites was either higher or lower than expected for unlinked neutral loci. Overall, these results suggest that for a protein‐coding sequence, the nonsynonymous‐to‐synonymous ratio of polymorphism may exceed one. In addition, under randomly perturbed environmental oscillation, different sets of sites may take turns harboring long‐term polymorphism, thus making trans‐species polymorphism (which has been predicted as a classical signature of balancing selection) less likely.     

On the utility of linkage disequilibrium as a statistic for identifying targets of positive selection in nonequilibrium populations

A critically important challenge in empirical population genetics is distinguishing neutral nonequilibrium processes from selective forces that produce similar patterns of variation. We here examine the extent to which linkage disequilibrium (i.e., nonrandom associations between markers) improves this discrimination. We show that patterns of linkage disequilibrium recently proposed to be unique to hitchhiking models are replicated under nonequilibrium neutral models. We also demonstrate that jointly considering spatial patterns of association among variants alongside the site-frequency spectrum is nonetheless of value. Through a comparison of models of equilibrium neutrality, nonequilibrium neutrality, equilibrium hitchhiking, nonequilibrium hitchhiking, and recurrent hitchhiking, we evaluate a linkage disequilibrium (LD) statistic (omega(max)) that appears to have power to identify regions recently shaped by positive selection. Most notably, for demographic parameters relevant to non-African populations of Drosophila melanogaster, we demonstrate that selected loci are distinguishable from neutral loci using this statistic.     

Selection versus random drift: long-term polymorphism persistence in small populations (evidence and modelling)

Our data on a subterranean mammal, Spalax ehrenbergi, and other evidence, indicate that appreciable polymorphism can be preserved in small isolated populations consisting of several dozens of, or a hundred, individuals. Current theoretical models predict fast gene fixation in small panmictic populations without selection, mutation, or gene inflow. Using simple multilocus models, we demonstrate here that moderate stabilizing selection (with stable or fluctuating optimum) for traits controlled by additive genes could oppose random fixation in such isolates during thousands of generations. We also show that in selection-free models polymorphism persists only for a few hundred generations even under high mutation rates. Our multi-chromosome models challenge the hitchhiking hypothesis of polymorphism maintenance for many neutral loci due to close linkage with few selected loci.     

Predictions of Taylor's power law, density dependence and pink noise from a neutrally modeled time series

There has recently been increasing interest in neutral models of biodiversity and their ability to reproduce the patterns observed in nature, such as species abundance distributions. Here we investigate the ability of a neutral model to predict phenomena observed in single-population time series, a study complementary to most existing work that concentrates on snapshots in time of the whole community. We consider tests for density dependence, the dominant frequencies of population fluctuation (spectral density) and a relationship between the mean and variance of a fluctuating population (Taylor's power law). We simulated an archipelago model of a set of interconnected local communities with variable mortality rate, migration rate, speciation rate, size of local community and number of local communities. Our spectral analysis showed ‘pink noise’: a departure from a standard random walk dynamics in favor of the higher frequency fluctuations which is partly consistent with empirical data. We detected density dependence in local community time series but not in metacommunity time series. The slope of the Taylor's power law in the model was similar to the slopes observed in natural populations, but the fit to the power law was worse. Our observations of pink noise and density dependence can be attributed to the presence of an upper limit to community sizes and to the effect of migration which distorts temporal autocorrelation in local time series. We conclude that some of the phenomena observed in natural time series can emerge from neutral processes, as a result of random zero-sum birth, death and migration. This suggests the neutral model would be a parsimonious null model for future studies of time series data.     

The joint effects of background selection and genetic recombination on local gene genealogies

Background selection, the effects of the continual removal of deleterious mutations by natural selection on variability at linked sites, is potentially a major determinant of DNA sequence variability. However, the joint effects of background selection and genetic recombination on the shape of the neutral gene genealogy have proved hard to study analytically. The only existing formula concerns the mean coalescent time for a pair of alleles, making it difficult to assess the importance of background selection from genome-wide data on sequence polymorphism. Here we develop a structured coalescent model of background selection with recombination and implement it in a computer program that efficiently generates neutral gene genealogies for an arbitrary sample size. We check the validity of the structured coalescent model against forward-in-time simulations and show that it accurately captures the effects of background selection. The model produces more accurate predictions of the mean coalescent time than the existing formula and supports the conclusion that the effect of background selection is greater in the interior of a deleterious region than at its boundaries. The level of linkage disequilibrium between sites is elevated by background selection, to an extent that is well summarized by a change in effective population size. The structured coalescent model is readily extendable to more realistic situations and should prove useful for analyzing genome-wide polymorphism data.     

The genealogy of sequences containing multiple sites subject to strong selection in a subdivided population

A stochastic model for the genealogy of a sample of recombining sequences containing one or more sites subject to selection in a subdivided population is described. Selection is incorporated by dividing the population into allelic classes and then conditioning on the past sizes of these classes. The past allele frequencies at the selected sites are thus treated as parameters rather than as random variables. The purpose of the model is not to investigate the dynamics of selection, but to investigate effects of linkage to the selected sites on the genealogy of the surrounding chromosomal region. This approach is useful for modeling strong selection, when it is natural to parameterize the past allele frequencies at the selected sites. Several models of strong balancing selection are used as examples, and the effects on the pattern of neutral polymorphism in the chromosomal region are discussed. We focus in particular on the statistical power to detect balancing selection when it is present.     

Multilocus patterns of polymorphism and selection across the X chromosome of Caenorhabditis remanei

Natural selection and neutral processes such as demography, mutation, and gene conversion all contribute to patterns of polymorphism within genomes. Identifying the relative importance of these varied components in evolution provides the principal challenge for population genetics. To address this issue in the nematode Caenorhabditis remanei, I sampled nucleotide polymorphism at 40 loci across the X chromosome. The site-frequency spectrum for these loci provides no evidence for population size change, and one locus presents a candidate for linkage to a target of balancing selection. Selection for codon usage bias leads to the non-neutrality of synonymous sites, and despite its weak magnitude of effect (N(e)s approximately 0.1), is responsible for profound patterns of diversity and divergence in the C. remanei genome. Although gene conversion is evident for many loci, biased gene conversion is not identified as a significant evolutionary process in this sample. No consistent association is observed between synonymous-site diversity and linkage-disequilibrium-based estimators of the population recombination parameter, despite theoretical predictions about background selection or widespread genetic hitchhiking, but genetic map-based estimates of recombination are needed to rigorously test for a diversity-recombination relationship. Coalescent simulations also illustrate how a spurious correlation between diversity and linkage-disequilibrium-based estimators of recombination can occur, due in part to the presence of unbiased gene conversion. These results illustrate the influence that subtle natural selection can exert on polymorphism and divergence, in the form of codon usage bias, and demonstrate the potential of C. remanei for detecting natural selection from genomic scans of polymorphism.     

Can the Site-Frequency Spectrum Distinguish Exponential Population Growth from Multiple-Merger Coalescents?

The ability of the site-frequency spectrum (SFS) to reflect the particularities of gene genealogies exhibiting multiple mergers of ancestral lines as opposed to those obtained in the presence of population growth is our focus. An excess of singletons is a well-known characteristic of both population growth and multiple mergers. Other aspects of the SFS, in particular, the weight of the right tail, are, however, affected in specific ways by the two model classes. Using an approximate likelihood method and minimum-distance statistics, our estimates of statistical power indicate that exponential and algebraic growth can indeed be distinguished from multiple-merger coalescents, even for moderate sample sizes, if the number of segregating sites is high enough. A normalized version of the SFS (nSFS) is also used as a summary statistic in an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) approach. The results give further positive evidence as to the general eligibility of the SFS to distinguish between the different histories.     

Selection at linked sites in the partial selfer Caenorhabditis elegans

Natural selection can produce a correlation between local recombination rates and levels of neutral DNA polymorphism as a consequence of genetic hitchhiking and background selection. Theory suggests that selection at linked sites should affect patterns of neutral variation in partially selfing populations more dramatically than in outcrossing populations. However, empirical investigations of selection at linked sites have focused primarily on outcrossing species. To assess the potential role of selection as a determinant of neutral polymorphism in the context of partial self-fertilization, we conducted a multivariate analysis of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) density throughout the genome of the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans. We based the analysis on a published SNP data set and partitioned the genome into windows to calculate SNP densities, recombination rates, and gene densities across all six chromosomes. Our analyses identify a strong, positive correlation between recombination rate and neutral polymorphism (as estimated by noncoding SNP density) across the genome of C. elegans. Furthermore, we find that levels of neutral polymorphism are lower in gene-dense regions than in gene-poor regions in some analyses. Analyses incorporating local estimates of divergence between C. elegans and C. briggsae indicate that a mutational explanation alone is unlikely to explain the observed patterns. Consequently, we interpret these findings as evidence that natural selection shapes genome-wide patterns of neutral polymorphism in C. elegans. Our study provides the first demonstration of such an effect in a partially selfing animal. Explicit models of genetic hitchhiking and background selection can each adequately describe the relationship between recombination rate and SNP density, but only when they incorporate selfing rate. Clarification of the relative roles of genetic hitchhiking and background selection in C. elegans awaits the development of specific theoretical predictions that account for partial self-fertilization and biased sex ratios.     

Controlling the false-positive rate in multilocus genome scans for selection

Rapid typing of genetic variation at many regions of the genome is an efficient way to survey variability in natural populations in an effort to identify segments of the genome that have experienced recent natural selection. Following such a genome scan, individual regions may be chosen for further sequencing and a more detailed analysis of patterns of variability, often to perform a parametric test for selection and to estimate the strength of a recent selective sweep. We show here that not accounting for the ascertainment of loci in such analyses leads to false inference of natural selection when the true model is selective neutrality, because the procedure of choosing unusual loci (in comparison to the rest of the genome-scan data) selects regions of the genome with genealogies similar to those expected under models of recent directional selection. We describe a simple and efficient correction for this ascertainment bias, which restores the false-positive rate to near-nominal levels. For the parameters considered here, we find that obtaining a test with the expected distribution of P-values depends on accurately accounting both for ascertainment of regions and for demography. Finally, we use simulations to explore the utility of relying on outlier loci to detect recent selective sweeps. We find that measures of diversity and of population differentiation are more effective than summaries of the site-frequency spectrum and that sequencing larger regions (2.5 kbp) in genome-scan studies leads to more power to detect recent selective sweeps.     

The neutral coalescent process for recent gene duplications and copy-number variants

I describe a method for simulating samples from gene families of size two under a neutral coalescent process, for the case where the duplicate gene either has fixed recently in the population or is still segregating. When a duplicate locus has recently fixed by genetic drift, diversity in the new gene is expected to be reduced, and an excess of rare alleles is expected, relative to the predictions of the standard coalescent model. The expected patterns of polymorphism in segregating duplicates ("copy-number variants") depend both on the frequency of the duplicate in the sample and on the rate of crossing over between the two loci. When the crossover rate between the ancestral gene and the copy-number variant is low, the expected pattern of variability in the ancestral gene will be similar to the predictions of models of either balancing or positive selection, if the frequency of the duplicate in the sample is intermediate or high, respectively. Simulations are used to investigate the effect of crossing over between loci, and gene conversion between the duplicate loci, on levels of variability and the site-frequency spectrum.     

Molecular population genetics of elicitor-induced resistance genes in European aspen (Populus tremula L., Salicaceae)

Owing to their long life span and ecological dominance in many communities, forest trees are subject to attack from a diverse array of herbivores throughout their range, and have therefore developed a large number of both constitutive and inducible defenses. We used molecular population genetics methods to examine the evolution of eight genes in European aspen, Populus tremula, that are all associated with defensive responses against pests and/or pathogens, and have earlier been shown to become strongly up-regulated in poplars as a response to wounding and insect herbivory. Our results show that the majority of these defense genes show patterns of intraspecific polymorphism and site-frequency spectra that are consistent with a neutral model of evolution. However, two of the genes, both belonging to a small gene family of polyphenol oxidases, show multiple deviations from the neutral model. The gene PPO1 has a 600 bp region with a highly elevated K(A)/K(S) ratio and reduced synonymous diversity. PPO1 also shows a skew toward intermediate frequency variants in the SFS, and a pronounced fixation of non-synonymous mutations, all pointing to the fact that PPO1 has been subjected to recurrent selective sweeps. The gene PPO2 shows a marked excess of high frequency, derived variants and shows many of the same trends as PPO1 does, even though the pattern is less pronounced, suggesting that PPO2 might have been the target of a recent selective sweep. Our results supports data from both Populus and other species which have found that the the majority of defense-associated genes show few signs of selection but that a number of genes involved in mediating defense against herbivores show signs of adaptive evolution.     

The Genealogy of Samples in Models with Selection

We introduce the genealogy of a random sample of genes taken from a large haploid population that evolves according to random reproduction with selection and mutation. Without selection, the genealogy is described by Kingman''s well-known coalescent process. In the selective case, the genealogy of the sample is embedded in a graph with a coalescing and branching structure. We describe this graph, called the ancestral selection graph, and point out differences and similarities with Kingman''s coalescent. We present simulations for a two-allele model with symmetric mutation in which one of the alleles has a selective advantage over the other. We find that when the allele frequencies in the population are already in equilibrium, then the genealogy does not differ much from the neutral case. This is supported by rigorous results. Furthermore, we describe the ancestral selection graph for other selective models with finitely many selection classes, such as the K-allele models, infinitely-many-alleles models, DNA sequence models, and infinitely-many-sites models, and briefly discuss the diploid case.