Effects of population subdivision and catastrophes on the persistence of a land snail metapopulation

We modeled the dynamics of a metapopulation of the land snail Arianta arbustorum in north-eastern Switzerland to investigate the effect of population subdivision on the persistence of a land snail metapopulation and to analyze the interaction between spatial factors, population subdivision, and catastrophes. We developed a spatially structured, stochastic, age-structured metapopulation model with field data from previous studies on the metapopulation in Switzerland and experimental and meteorological data. The model incorporated distance-dependent dispersal through stream banks, correlated environmental fluctuations, and catastrophes resulting from heavy rains. The results point to various complex interactions among factors involved in metapopulation dynamics and suggest that in some cases population subdivision may act to decrease threats from environmental fluctuations and catastrophes.     

The effect of migration on metapopulation stability is qualitatively unaffected by demographic and spatial heterogeneity

Coupled map lattices (CMLs), using two coupled logistic equations, have been extensively used to model the dynamics of two-patch ecological systems. Such studies have revealed that migration rate plays an important role in determining the dynamics of the system, particularly when the two maps differ in their intrinsic growth rate parameter, r. However, under more realistic assumptions, a metapopulation can be expected to consist of more than two subpopulations, each with its own demographic parameters, which will in part be a function of the environment of that patch. The role of the spatial arrangement of heterogeneous (i.e. with different r values) subpopulations in shaping the dynamics of such a metapopulation has rarely been investigated. Here, we study the effect of demographic and spatial heterogeneity on the stability of one- and two-dimensional systems of 64 coupled Ricker maps with different r values, under periodic and absorbing boundary conditions. We show that the effects of migration rate on metapopulation stability do not depend upon either the precise spatial arrangement of the subpopulations in the lattice, or on the presence of a moderate proportion of vacant (uninhabitable) patches in the lattice. The results, thus, suggest that metapopulation models are robust to variation in spatial arrangement of patch quality and, hence, of demographic parameters. We also show that for any given arrangement of the patches, maximum stability of the metapopulation occurs when the migration levels are intermediate, a result that agrees well with previous studies on two-map CML systems.     

A framework for the study of genetic variation in migratory behaviour

Evolutionary change results from selection acting on genetic variation. For migration to be successful, many different aspects of an animal’s physiology and behaviour need to function in a co-coordinated way. Changes in one migratory trait are therefore likely to be accompanied by changes in other migratory and life-history traits. At present, we have some knowledge of the pressures that operate at the various stages of migration, but we know very little about the extent of genetic variation in various aspects of the migratory syndrome. As a consequence, our ability to predict which species is capable of what kind of evolutionary change, and at which rate, is limited. Here, we review how our evolutionary understanding of migration may benefit from taking a quantitative-genetic approach and present a framework for studying the causes of phenotypic variation. We review past research, that has mainly studied single migratory traits in captive birds, and discuss how this work could be extended to study genetic variation in the wild and to account for genetic correlations and correlated selection. In the future, reaction-norm approaches may become very important, as they allow the study of genetic and environmental effects on phenotypic expression within a single framework, as well as of their interactions. We advocate making more use of repeated measurements on single individuals to study the causes of among-individual variation in the wild, as they are easier to obtain than data on relatives and can provide valuable information for identifying and selecting traits. This approach will be particularly informative if it involves systematic testing of individuals under different environmental conditions. We propose extending this research agenda by using optimality models to predict levels of variation and covariation among traits and constraints. This may help us to select traits in which we might expect genetic variation, and to identify the most informative environmental axes. We also recommend an expansion of the passerine model, as this model does not apply to birds, like geese, where cultural transmission of spatio-temporal information is an important determinant of migration patterns and their variation.     

Asynchronization of local population dynamics and persistence of a metapopulation: a lesson from an endangered composite plant, Aster kantoensis

Fragmentation of a large habitat makes local populations less linked to others, and a whole population structure changes to a metapopulation. The smaller a local population is, the more strengthened extinction factors become. Then, frequent extinctions of local populations threaten persistence of the metapopulation unless recolonizations occur rapidly enough after local extinctions. Spatially structured models have been more widely used for predicting future population dynamics and for assessing the extinction risk of a metapopulation. In this article, we first review such spatially structured models that have been applied to conservation biology, focusing on effects of asynchronization among local population dynamics on persistence of the whole metapopulation. Second, we introduce our ongoing project on extinction risk assessment of an endangered composite biennial plant, Aster kantoensis, in the riverside habitat, based on a lattice model for describing its spatiotemporal population dynamics. The model predicted that the extinction risk of A. kantoensis depends on both the frequency of flood occurrence and the time to coverage of a local habitat by other competitively stronger perennials. Finally, we present a measure (Hassell and Pacala's CV ²) for quantifying the effect of asynchronization among local population dynamics on the persistence of a whole metapopulation in conservation ecology. Received: January 12, 2000 / Accepted: February 8, 2000     

生境破坏的模式对集合种群动态和续存的影响

构建了空间关联的集合种群模型,该模型不但包含了种群的空间结构信息,而且引入了破坏生境的全局密度和局部密度两个指标,它们描述了破坏生境的模式.模型揭示了破坏生境的空间分布格局复杂地影响了集合种群的动态和续存,破坏和未破坏生境斑块的均匀混合不利于集合种群的增长和续存,而生境类型聚集分布可以促进集合种群的快速增长和长期续存;对于两种斑块类型相对均匀混合的生境来说,均匀场假设可能会高估集合种群的续存,对于相对斑块类型高度聚集的生境,均匀场假设可能会低估集合种群的续存;物种的迁移范围也会影响集合种群的续存,迁移范围越大的物种越容易抵御生境的破坏而免遭灭绝.这意味着在生物保护中不能仅仅考虑生境的恢复和斑块质量的改善,生境结构的构建也是很重要的,加强生境斑块之间的连通性也有利于物种的长期续存.     

硬叶兜兰居群表型变异研究

为了揭示硬叶兜兰表型变异的规律,以滇东南核心分布地区7个硬叶兜兰居群113个体的18个表型数量性状进行研究,通过变异系数、巢式方差分析、相关性和聚类分析,结果显示:除了叶长、叶宽、花梗粗、苞片长和苞片宽5个数量性状不存在显著差异外,其余数量性状在居群水平上都存在显著差异。各性状变异系数在0.088~0.189之间,花梗长、叶长、叶长宽比、附毛长的变异系数较大,而中萼高、花囊高和宽、花梗粗、合萼高、花瓣宽和长相对变异不大;18个性状表型分化系数(Vst)在2.05%~50.62%之间,平均值达到22.02%,暗示有77.98%表型变异存在于居群内。除雄蕊长和宽表现居群内和居群间的变异相当外,果蒴长、花瓣长和宽、中萼高和宽、合萼高和宽的分化系数分别为36.03%、23.74%、24.55%、28.13%、18.00%、20.56%和18.12%,叶长最小,为2.05%,居群间的变异明显小于居群内。性状关联性研究表明:花瓣、合萼、中萼高、花梗长和叶长宽比高度相关,而叶宽、苞片长、雄蕊性状和中萼高与其余性状关联性不密切,这些性状相对独立,稳定性较高;基于数量指标的欧氏距离聚类表明:7个居群可分为2大类:杨柳井居群和马固居群为近缘支;其余5个居群(斗咀、小坝子、夹寒箐、古林箐和田坝)为一类。     

Spatial variation in branch size promotes metapopulation persistence in dendritic river networks

1. Despite years of attention, the dynamics of species constrained to disperse within riverine networks are not well captured by existing metapopulation models, which often ignore local dynamics within branches.
2. We develop a modelling framework, based on traditional metapopulation theory, for patch occupancy dynamics subject to local colonisation–extinction dynamics within branches and regional dispersal between branches in size-structured, bifurcating riverine networks. Using this framework, we investigate whether and how spatial variation in branch size affects species persistence for dendritic systems with directional dispersal, including one-way (up- or downstream only) and two-way (both up- and downstream) dispersal.
3. Variation in branch size generally promotes species persistence more obviously at higher relative extinction rate, suggesting that previous studies ignoring differences in branch size in real riverine systems might overestimate species extinction risk.
4. Two-way dispersal is not always superior to one-way dispersal as a strategy for metapopulation persistence especially at high relative extinction rate. The type of dispersal that maximises species persistence is determined by the hierarchical level of the largest, and hence most influential, branch within the network. When considering the interactive effects of up- and downstream dispersal, we find that moderate upstream-biased dispersal maximises metapopulation viability, mediated by spatial branch arrangement.
5. Overall, these results suggest that both branch-size variation and species traits interact to determine species persistence, theoretically demonstrating the ecological significance of their interplay.

     

Effects of colonization asymmetries on metapopulation persistence

Ocean currents, prevailing winds, and the hierarchical structures of river networks are known to create asymmetries in re-colonization between habitat patches. The impacts of such asymmetries on metapopulation persistence are seldom considered, especially rarely in theoretical studies. Considering three classical models (the island, the stepping stone and the distance-dependent model), we explore how metapopulation persistence is affected by (i) asymmetry in dispersal strength, in which the colonization rate between two patches differs in direction, and (ii) asymmetry in connectivity, in which the overall colonization pattern displays asymmetry (circulating or dendritic networks). Viability can be drastically reduced when directional bias in dispersal strength is higher than 25%. Re-colonization patterns that allow for strong local connectivity provide the highest persistence compared to systems that allow circulation. Finally, asymmetry has relatively weak effects when metapopulations maintain strong general connectivity.     

Individual quality, survival variation and patterns of phenotypic selection on body condition and timing of nesting in birds

Questions about individual variation in quality and fitness are of great interest to evolutionary and population ecologists. Such variation can be investigated using either a random effects approach or an approach that relies on identifying observable traits that are themselves correlated with fitness components. We used the latter approach with data from 1,925 individual females of three species of ducks (tufted duck, Aythya fuligula; common pochard, Aythya ferina; northern shoveler, Anas clypeata) sampled on their breeding grounds at Engure Marsh, Latvia, for over 15 years. Based on associations with reproductive output, we selected two traits, one morphological (relative body condition) and one behavioral (relative time of nesting), that can be used to characterize individual females over their lifetimes. We then asked whether these traits were related to annual survival probabilities of nesting females. We hypothesized quadratic, rather than monotonic, relationships based loosely on ideas about the likely action of stabilizing selection on these two traits. Parameters of these relationships were estimated directly using ultrastructural models embedded within capture-recapture-band-recovery models. Results provided evidence that both traits were related to survival in the hypothesized manner. For all three species, females that tended to nest earlier than the norm exhibited the highest survival rates, but very early nesters experienced reduced survival and late nesters showed even lower survival. For shovelers, females in average body condition showed the highest survival, with lower survival rates exhibited by both heavy and light birds. For common pochard and tufted duck, the highest survival rates were associated with birds of slightly above-average condition, with somewhat lower survival for very heavy birds and much lower survival for birds in relatively poor condition. Based on results from this study and previous work on reproduction, we conclude that nest initiation date and body condition covary with both reproductive and survival components of fitness. These associations lead to a positive covariance of these two fitness components within individuals and to the conclusion that these two traits are indeed correlates of individual quality.     

Habitat‐driven life history variation in an amphibian metapopulation

Life‐history theory states that, during the lifetime of an individual, resources are allocated to either somatic maintenance or reproduction. Resource allocation tradeoffs determine the evolution and ecology of life‐history strategies and determine an organisms’ position along the fast–slow continuum. Theory predicts that environmental stochasticity is an important driver of resource allocation and therefore life‐history evolution. Highly stochastic environments are expected to increase uncertainty in reproductive success and select for iteroparity and a slowing down of the life history. To date, most empirical studies have used comparisons among species to examine these theoretical predictions. By contrast, few have investigated how environmental stochasticity affects life‐history strategies at the intraspecific level. In this study, we examined how variation in breeding site stochasticity (among‐year variability in pond volume and hydroperiod) promotes the co‐occurrence of different life‐history strategies in a spatially structured population, and determines life‐history position along the fast–slow continuum in the yellow‐bellied toad Bombina variegata. We collected mark–recapture data from a metapopulation and used multievent capture–recapture models to estimate survival, recruitment and breeding probabilities. We found higher survival and longer lifespans in populations inhabiting variable sites compared to those breeding in stable ones. In addition, probabilities of recruitment and skipping a breeding event were higher in variable sites. The temporal variance of survival and recruitment probabilities, as well as the probability to skip breeding, was higher in variable sites. Taken together, these findings indicate that populations breeding in variable sites experienced a slowing down of the life‐history. Our study thus revealed similarities in the macroevolutionary and microevolutionary processes shaping life‐history evolution.     

Dispersal altering local states has a limited effect on persistence of a metapopulation

Metapopulations are collections of local populations connected by dispersal. Metapopulation models often assume would-be colonists affect the states of local populations they disperse from and those they disperse to. Here, we build a new framework to include that effect and to assess the impact of dispersal. Our model predicts that a metapopulation will, in general, be found either in the state of global extinction or in the state of persistence. Our key finding is that dispersal, and the state changes associated with dispersal, have significant qualitative and quantitative effects on long-term dynamics only in a narrow range of parameter space. We conclude that life history features other than dispersal (e.g. mortality rate) have a greater influence over metapopulation persistence. We discuss the implications of our results for conservation biology, the future application of our model to the study of cooperative breeding, as well as our model's limitations.     

The effects of large and small-scale random events on the synchrony of metapopulation dynamics: a theoretical analysis

We present an analysis of the conditions under which migration and global random factors may determine large scale synchrony in the dynamics of spatially structured populations. We derive an analytic approximation which describes how the desynchronizing influence of local environmental stochasticity combines with the synchronizing influences of larger scale environmental stochastic variation and migration to determine population cross correlation coefficients. Despite the simplifications made by this analysis, computer simulations show that the behaviour of more complicated models is well described by our approximation over considerable regions of parameter space. We conclude that population synchrony is largely determined by the coefficients of variation (CVs) of the local and larger scale stochastic processes, and that migration alone is only likely to maintain population synchrony when the CV of the local stochastic process is very small.     

The role of landscape-dependent disturbance and dispersal in metapopulation persistence

The fundamental processes that influence metapopulation dynamics (extinction and recolonization) will often depend on landscape structure. Disturbances that increase patch extinction rates will frequently be landscape dependent such that they are spatially aggregated and have an increased likelihood of occurring in some areas. Similarly, landscape structure can influence organism movement, producing asymmetric dispersal between patches. Using a stochastic, spatially explicit model, we examine how landscape-dependent correlations between dispersal and disturbance rates influence metapopulation dynamics. Habitat patches that are situated in areas where the likelihood of disturbance is low will experience lower extinction rates and will function as partial refuges. We discovered that the presence of partial refuges increases metapopulation viability and that the value of partial refuges was contingent on whether dispersal was also landscape dependent. Somewhat counterintuitively, metapopulation viability was reduced when individuals had a preponderance to disperse away from refuges and was highest when there was biased dispersal toward refuges. Our work demonstrates that landscape structure needs to be incorporated into metapopulation models when there is either empirical data or ecological rationale for extinction and/or dispersal rates being landscape dependent.     

Adrenocortical responses in zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata): individual variation, repeatability, and relationship to phenotypic quality

Although individual variation is a key requirement for natural selection, little is known about the magnitude and patterns of individual variation in endocrine systems or the functional significance of that variation. Here we describe (1) the extent and repeatability of inter-individual variation in adrenocortical responses and (2) its relationship to sex-specific phenotypic quality, such as song duration and frequency and timing of egg laying. We measured adrenocortical responses to a standardized stressor in zebra finches (Taeniopygia guttata) at two life history stages: approximately day 16 (nestlings) and 3 months of age (sexually mature adults). Subsequently, we assessed phenotypic (reproductive) quality of all individuals as adults. Marked inter-individual variation in the adrenocortical response was seen in both sexes and ages, e.g., stress-induced corticosterone ranged from 2.2 to 62.5 ng/mL in nestlings and 5.0-64.0 ng/mL in adults. We found sex differences in (a) inter-individual variation in the adrenocortical response, (b) repeatability, and (c) relationships between corticosterone levels and phenotypic quality. In males, variation in nestling corticosterone was weakly but positively correlated with brood size and negatively correlated with nestling mass (though this relationship was dependent on one individual). There was no significant correlation of adrenocortical responses between two stages in males and adult phenotypic quality was significantly correlated only with adult corticosterone levels. In contrast, in females there was no relationship between nestling corticosterone and brood size or mass but adrenocortical response was repeatable between two stages (r2=0.413). Phenotypic quality of adult females was correlated with nestling baseline and adrenocortical response.     

The effects of spatially correlated perturbations and habitat configuration on metapopulation persistence

All natural populations are confronted with the temporal variability of their environment, and most of them occur in fragmented habitats. I use spatially explicit modeling to examine the interactive effects of habitat configuration, habitat deterioration and spatially correlated environmental perturbations on the viability of fragmented populations. When considering a fixed amount of habitat, viability is maximized for an intermediate (optimal) density of habitat patches, allowing effective dispersal without strong environmental correlation among patches. Starting from this optimal density, I show that the scale of habitat change (density reduction vs range contraction) interacts with the direction of change (reduction vs improvement of habitat availability). An improvement in habitat availability is always more beneficial if occurring through an increase of the species range, while a reduction in habitat availability is always more critical if occurring through a reduction of patch density (even in the presence of environmental correlation). In the context of the 'single large or several small' debate in reserve design, results indicate that a large number of small patches may be optimal to long-term species persistence if the species range increases with the number of patches.     

The effects of connectivity on metapopulation persistence: network symmetry and degree correlations

A spatial metapopulation is a mosaic of interconnected patch populations. The complex routes of colonization between the patches are governed by the metapopulation''s dispersal network. Over the past two decades, there has been considerable interest in uncovering the effects of dispersal network topology and its symmetry on metapopulation persistence. While most studies find that the level of symmetry in dispersal pattern enhances persistence, some have reached the conclusion that symmetry has at most a minor effect. In this work, we present a new perspective on the debate. We study properties of the in- and out-degree distribution of patches in the metapopulation which define the number of dispersal routes into and out of a particular patch, respectively. By analysing the spectral radius of the dispersal matrices, we confirm that a higher level of symmetry has only a marginal impact on persistence. We continue to analyse different properties of the in–out degree distribution, namely the ‘in–out degree correlation’ (IODC) and degree heterogeneity, and find their relationship to metapopulation persistence. Our analysis shows that, in contrast to symmetry, the in–out degree distribution and particularly, the IODC are dominant factors controlling persistence.     

Heterochrony, maternal effects, and phenotypic variation among sympatric pupfishes

Variation in ontogeny can produce phenotypic variation both within and among species. I investigated whether changes in timing and rate of growth were a source of phenotypic variation in a putative incipient species group of pupfish (Cyprinodon spp.). On San Salvador Island, Bahamas, sympatric forms of pupfish differ in morphology but show only partial reproductive isolation in the laboratory. Offspring from two forms and two geographical areas and their hybrids were bred in the laboratory, and ontogenetic trajectories of their feeding morphology were followed until maturity. In the Bahamian pupfish the two forms grow along similar size but not shape trajectories. Two heterochronic parameters, onset and rate of growth, alter shape trajectories in the Bahamian pupfish. Similar forms from different geographical areas (Florida and the Bahamas) grow along parallel shape trajectories, differing only in one heterochronic parameter, the onset shape. Hybrids within and between the pupfish forms produced intermediate feeding morphologies that were influenced by their maternal phenotype, suggesting that maternal effects may be a source of phenotypic variation in shape that can persist to maturity. In Cyprinodon, small changes in multiple heterochronic parameters translate into large phenotypic differences in feeding morphology.     

Intraspecific phenotypic variation among alewife populations drives parallel phenotypic shifts in bluegill

Evolutionary diversification within consumer species may generate selection on local ecological communities, affecting prey community structure. However, the extent to which this niche construction can propagate across food webs and shape trait variation in competing species is unknown. Here, we tested whether niche construction by different life-history variants of the planktivorous fish alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) can drive phenotypic divergence and resource use in the competing species bluegill (Lepomis macrochirus). Using a combination of common garden experiments and a comparative field study, we found that bluegill from landlocked alewife lakes grew relatively better when fed small than large zooplankton, had gill rakers better adapted for feeding on small-bodied prey and selected smaller zooplankton compared with bluegill from lakes with anadromous or no alewife. Observed shifts in bluegill foraging traits in lakes with landlocked alewife parallel those in alewife, suggesting interspecific competition leading to parallel phenotypic changes rather than to divergence (which is commonly predicted). Our findings suggest that species may be locally adapted to prey communities structured by different life-history variants of a competing dominant species.     

Patterns of phenotypic and genetic variation for the plasticity of diapause incidence

Phenotypic plasticity describes an organism's ability to produce multiple phenotypes in direct response to its environmental conditions. Over the past 15 years empiricists have found that this plasticity frequently exhibits geographic variation and often possesses a significant heritable genetic basis. However, few studies have examined both of these aspects of plasticity simultaneously. Here, we examined both the geographic and genetic variations of the plasticity for diapause incidence (the proportion of eggs that enter an arrested state of development capable of surviving over the winter) relative to temperatures and photoperiods associated with long and short season environments across six populations of the striped ground cricket, Allonemobius socius, using a half-sibling split brood quantitative genetic design. We found that plasticity, as measured by the slope of the reaction norm, was greater in the southern-low altitude region (where populations are bivoltine) relative to the southern-high and northern-low altitude regions (where populations are univoltine). However, the heritability of plasticity was only significantly different from zero in univoltine populations that experienced "intermediate" natal season lengths. These patterns suggest that selection may favor the plasticity of diapause incidence in bivoltine regions, but act against plasticity in regions in which populations are univoltine. Furthermore, our data suggest that under "intermediate" natal season length conditions, the interplay between local adaptation and gene flow may keep the plasticity of diapause incidence low (but still significant) while maintaining its genetic variation. As such, this study not only provides a novel observation into the geographic variation of phenotypic plasticity, but also provides much needed groundwork for tests of its adaptive significance.