Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long‐term demographic study on tawny owls

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent‐scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole‐eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27‐year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high‐ to a low‐amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid‐1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First‐year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole‐eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe.     

Landscape effects on temporal and spatial properties of vole population fluctuations

Populations of northern small rodents have previously been observed to fluctuate in spatial synchrony over distances ranging from tens to hundreds of kilometers between sites. It has been suggested that this phenomenon is caused by common environmental perturbations, mobile predators or dispersal movements. However, very little focus has been given to how the physical properties of the geographic area over which synchrony occurs, such as landscape composition and climate, affect spatial population dynamics. This study reports on the spatial and temporal properties of vole population fluctuations in two areas of western Finland: one composed of large interconnected areas of agricultural farmland interspersed by forests and the other highly dominated by forest areas, containing more isolated patches of agricultural land. Furthermore, the more agricultural area exhibits somewhat milder winters with less snow than the forested area. We found the amplitude of vole cycles to be essentially the same in the two areas, suggesting that the relative amount of predation on small rodents by generalist versus specialist predators is similar in both areas. No seasonal differences in the timing of synchronization were observable for Microtus voles, whereas bank vole populations in field habitats appeared to become synchronized primarily during winter. Microtus populations in field habitats exhibited smaller spatial variation and a higher degree of synchrony in the more continuous agricultural landscape than in the forest-dominated landscape. We suggest that this inter-areal difference is due to differences in the degree of inter-patch connectivity, with predators and dispersal acting as the primary synchronizing agents. Bank vole populations in field habitats were more synchronized within the forest-dominated landscape, most likely reflecting the suitability of the inter-patch matrix and the possibility of dispersal. Our study clearly indicates that landscape composition needs to be taken into account when describing the spatial properties of small rodent population dynamics.     

Predator–vole interactions in northern Europe: the role of small mustelids revised

The cyclic population dynamics of vole and predator communities is a key phenomenon in northern ecosystems, and it appears to be influenced by climate change. Reports of collapsing rodent cycles have attributed the changes to warmer winters, which weaken the interaction between voles and their specialist subnivean predators. Using population data collected throughout Finland during 1986–2011, we analyse the spatio-temporal variation in the interactions between populations of voles and specialist, generalist and avian predators, and investigate by simulations the roles of the different predators in the vole cycle. We test the hypothesis that vole population cyclicity is dependent on predator–prey interactions during winter. Our results support the importance of the small mustelids for the vole cycle. However, weakening specialist predation during winters, or an increase in generalist predation, was not associated with the loss of cyclicity. Strengthening of delayed density dependence coincided with strengthening small mustelid influence on the summer population growth rates of voles. In conclusion, a strong impact of small mustelids during summers appears highly influential to vole population dynamics, and deteriorating winter conditions are not a viable explanation for collapsing small mammal population cycles.     

Habitat requirements of weasels <Emphasis Type="Italic">Mustela nivalis</Emphasis> constrain their impact on prey populations in complex ecosystems of the temperate zone

Differences in habitat use by prey and predator may lead to a shift of occupied niches and affect dynamics of their populations. The weasel Mustela nivalis specializes in hunting rodents, therefore habitat preferences of this predator may have important consequences for the population dynamics of its prey. We investigated habitat selection by weasels in the Bia?owie?a Forest in different seasons at the landscape and local scales, and evaluated possible consequences for the population dynamics of their prey. At the landscape scale, weasels preferred open habitats (both dry and wet) and avoided forest. In open areas they selected habitats with higher prey abundance, except during the low-density phase of the vole cycle, when the distribution of these predators was more uniform. Also in winter, the distribution of weasels at the landscape scale was proportional to available resources. In summer, within open dry and wet habitats, weasels preferred areas characterised by dense vegetation, but avoided poor plant cover. In winter, weasels used wet open areas proportionally to availability of habitats when hunting, but in contrast to summer, they rested only in habitats characterized by a lower water level, which offered better thermal conditions. At the local scale, the abundance of voles was a less important factor affecting the distribution of these predators. Although we were not able to provide direct evidence for the existence of refuges for voles, our results show that they may be located within habitat patches, where availability of dense plant cover and physiological constraints limit the activity of weasels. Our results indicate that in complex ecosystems of the temperate zone, characterized by a mosaic pattern of vegetation types and habitat specific dynamics of rodents, impact of weasels on prey populations might be limited.     

Fading out of vole and predator cycles?

Northern voles and lemmings are famous for their spectacular multiannual population cycles with high amplitudes. Such cyclic vole populations in Scandinavia have shown an unexpected and marked long-term decline in density since the early 1970s, particularly with a marked shift to lower spring densities in the early 1980s. The vole decline, mainly characterized by a strongly decreased rate of change in numbers over winter, is associated with an increased occurrence of mild and wet winters brought about by a recent change in the North Atlantic Oscillation. This has led to a decrease in winter stability and has shortened the period with protective snow cover, the latter considered as an important prerequisite for the occurrence of multiannual, high-amplitude cycles in vole populations. Although the vole decline is predicted to be negative for predators' reproduction and abundance, empirical data showing this are rare. Here we show that the dynamics of a predator-prey system (Tengmalm's owl, Aegolius funereus, and voles), have in recent years gradually changed from 3-4 yr, high-amplitude cycles towards more or less annual fluctuations only.     

Numerical and functional responses of Common Buzzards Buteo buteo to prey abundance on a Scottish grouse moor

Predators will often respond to reductions in preferred prey by switching to alternative prey resources. However, this may not apply to all alternative prey groups in patchy landscapes. We investigated the demographic and aggregative numerical and functional responses of Common Buzzards Buteo buteo in relation to variations in prey abundance on a moor managed for Red Grouse Lagopus lagopus scotica in south‐west Scotland over three consecutive breeding and non‐breeding seasons. We predicted that predation of Red Grouse by Buzzards would increase when abundance of their preferred Field Vole Microtus agrestis prey declined. As vole abundance fluctuated, Buzzards responded functionally by eating voles in relation to their abundance, but they did not respond demographically in terms of either breeding success or density. During a vole crash year, Buzzards selected a wider range of prey typical of enclosed farmland habitats found on the moorland edge but fewer Grouse from the heather moorland. During a vole peak year, prey remains suggested a linear relationship between Grouse density and the number of Grouse eaten (a Type 1 functional response), which was not evident in either intermediate or vole crash years. Buzzard foraging intensity varied between years as vole abundance fluctuated, and foraging intensity declined with increasing heather cover. Our findings did not support the prediction that predation of Red Grouse would increase when vole abundance was low. Instead, they suggest that Buzzards predated Grouse incidentally while hunting for voles, which may increase when vole abundances are high through promoting foraging in heather moorland habitats where Grouse are more numerous. Our results suggest that declines in their main prey may not result in increased predation of all alternative prey groups when predators inhabit patchy landscapes. We suggest that when investigating predator diet and impacts on prey, knowledge of all resources and habitats that are available to predators is important.     

Movement patterns of a specialist predator,the weasel<Emphasis Type="Italic">Mustela nivalis</Emphasis> exploiting asynchronous cyclic field vole<Emphasis Type="Italic">Microtus agrestis</Emphasis> populations

We investigated habitat selection and movement characteristics of male weaselsMustela nivalis Linnaeus, 1766 during the breeding season through radio-telemetry in Kielder Forest (KF) in order to assess how weasel movement is influenced by prey dynamics, mate searching and predation risk, and whether the scale of weasel movement corresponds to the spatial scale of the asynchronous, multi-annual vole population cycles observed in KF. Weasels used habitats with a high proportion of grass cover to a much larger extend than habitats with less grass cover and moved through the latter habitats faster and / or straighter. Habitats with high amounts of grass cover also had the highest field vole abundance, although total rodent abundance did not differ between habitats. The selection of this habitat by weasels might reflect weasels preferring field voles as prey or avoiding habitats with little grass cover and high intraguild predation risk. Five out of 8 male weasels radio-tracked had low day-to-day site fidelity and moved between different clear cuts. Three other males were resident in a single clear cut. This variation may reflect mate searching by male weasels. The observation that most weasels (5 out of 8) roamed over large areas and the scale of their dispersal potential suggests, that if they regulated vole populations, they should have a greater synchronising effect on the spatial scale of vole population dynamics than what is observed in vole populations in KF.     

Diet of otters (Lutra lutra) in closely associated freshwater, brackish and marine habitats in south-west Portugal

The diet of otters was studied in closely associated freshwater, brackish and marine habitats, from spraints collected on the Portuguese south-west coast over an 18-month period. In areas where marine prey was the only available resource, diet was dominated by blennies, wrasses and gobies, but other prey was taken in areas near coastal lagoons, marshes and estuaries. Eels and amphibians were considered the typical prey of freshwater habitats, and grey mullet the typical prey of brackish water habitats. If the inland habitats near the coast were large enough, otters preferred to forage there rather than in the sea. In one area where otters alternatively used marine and inland habitats, the former were used most extensively in autumn and winter, and the latter in spring and summer. It is suggested that otters prefer to forage inland rather than in the sea.     

Snow tracking reveals different foraging patterns of red foxes and pine martens

Red fox (Vulpes vulpes) shares similar prey preferences and co-occurs with several other carnivores, and is together with pine marten (Martes martes), the most common mesocarnivore in the northern boreal forest. Voles are important prey for both species, but it is unclear to what extent they compete for the same food resources in winter. Here, we use 2139 km and 533 km of meticulous snow tracking of red foxes and pine martens to evaluate their food niches. We measured hunting and digging behaviour, whether successful or not, and the effect of snow depth and temperature. Pine martens were restricted to forested habitats, whereas red foxes used a wide range of habitats. Red foxes were found to dig more often than pine martens, 0.67 vs. 0.39 digging events per kilometre. Hunting was less common and similar in both species, about 0.1 hunting event per kilometre. Pine martens were more efficient in hunting and finding food remains compared to red foxes. Increasing snow depth reduced hunting success and also reduced dig success of red foxes. Food niche overlap was small. Red foxes used mostly voles and carrion remains of ungulates, whereas pine martens used cached eggs and small birds. We suggest that caching eggs is an important strategy for pine martens to survive winter in northern latitudes. Snow depth was important for capturing voles, and thick snow cover appeared to mask the effect of vole peaks. Intensified land use, as clear-cutting and leaving slaughter remains from harvest, will benefit red foxes on the expense of pine martens. The ongoing climate change with warmer winters and less snow will likely further benefit the red fox.     

The role of vole populations in prevalence of the parasite (Echinococcus multilocularis) in foxes

Effects of population fluctuation of the gray-sided vole(Clethrionomys rufocanus) on the prevalence (infection rates) of the parasiteEchinococcus multilocularis in red fox(Vulpes vulpes) populations was investigated from 1985 to 1992 in eastern Hokkaido (Abashiri, Nemuro, and Kushiro area), Japan. This parasite needs two hosts to complete its life cycle; the gray-sided vole as its intermediate host and the red fox as its final host. We found that: (1) Infection rates in foxes depended on the current-year abundance of voles in all three study areas, particularly in Abashiri. (2) In addition to this direct density-dependence, delayed density-dependence between the infection rate and the prior-year abundance of voles was detected in Nemuro and in Kushiro. (3) The regional differences in density-dependence pattern were related to regional differences in the winter food habits of red foxes: in Abashiri the proportion of voles in the fox’s diet greatly decreases in winter, while the proportion remains high in winter in Nemuro and in Kushiro, probably because of shallower snowpack. These results suggest that infection rates in foxes in Abashiri were less influenced by the prior-year prevalence, since the infection cycle might be interrupted in winter, when voles became less important in fox’s diet. In contrast, the state of the prevalence may carry over from year to year in Nemuro and in Kushiro, because red foxes continue to eat a considerable amount of voles throughout year. The regionally contrasted results for the relationship between infection rate in foxes and vole abundance were parallel to the regional difference in fluctuation pattern of vole populations, which are highly variable in Abashiri area, but less variable in Kushiro-Nemuro area. Drastic change in vole populations appears to affect the host-parasite system.     

The influence of coastal access on isotope variation in Icelandic arctic foxes

To quantify the ecological effects of predator populations, it is important to evaluate how population-level specializations are dictated by intra- versus inter-individual dietary variation. Coastal habitats contain prey from the terrestrial biome, the marine biome and prey confined to the coastal region. Such habitats have therefore been suggested to better support predator populations compared to habitats without coastal access. We used stable isotope data on a small generalist predator, the arctic fox, to infer dietary strategies between adult and juvenile individuals with and without coastal access on Iceland. Our results suggest that foxes in coastal habitats exhibited a broader isotope niche breadth compared to foxes in inland habitats. This broader niche was related to a greater diversity of individual strategies rather than to a uniform increase in individual niche breadth or by individuals retaining their specialization but increasing their niche differentiation. Juveniles in coastal habitats exhibited a narrower isotope niche breadth compared to both adults and juveniles in inland habitats, and juveniles in inland habitats inhabited a lower proportion of their total isotope niche compared to adults and juveniles from coastal habitats. Juveniles in both habitats exhibited lower intra-individual variation compared to adults. Based on these results, we suggest that foxes in both habitats were highly selective with respect to the resources they used to feed offspring, but that foxes in coastal habitats preferentially utilized marine resources for this purpose. We stress that coastal habitats should be regarded as high priority areas for conservation of generalist predators as they appear to offer a wide variety of dietary options that allow for greater flexibility in dietary strategies.     

Predation on rodents in Białowieza primeval forest, Poland

Autumn and winter predation on bank vole Clethrtonomys glareolus and yellow-necked mouse Apodemus flavicollis was studied in 1985/86-88/89 in an 11 2 km² area of the Bialowieza National Park Rodents regularly increased in numbers from spring to autumn and decreased throughout winter Out of 23 species of predators, the most common were tawny owl Strix aluco (43-57 adult ind 10 km⁻²) weasel Mustela ntvahs (17-27 ind), buzzard Buteo buteo (12-16) and pine marten Martes martes (5-8) Voles and mice were the staple food for two specialists the stoat Mustela erminea and the weasel, and two generahsts the tawny owl and the pine marten The generalists exploited different alternative prey when rodents were scarce tawny owl -amphibians, marten - small mammals, and the red fox Vulpes vulpes - ungulate carcasses and hares The depth of snow and abundance of voles were two major factors shaping the contribution of voles to tawny owl and marten diets No such relationships were found for mice and generalist predators The predation by 8 species (tawny owl, buzzard, marten, weasel, stoat, polecat Mustela putortus fox, and raccoon dog Nyctereutes procyonoides) from 1 October to 15 April in 1986/87, 87/88, and 88/89 was estimated to be on average 28-35 voles and 14-17 mice ha Estimates suggested that three species were responsible for 86-95% of the total predation impact tawny owl (56-71%), weasel (11-21%) and marten (10-15%) The predation impact was similar to the annual decrease in rodent numbers from autumn till spring voles 35 (SD 111) lnds ha^-1in autumn and 8 (SD 2 6) lnds ha^-1in spring, and mice 24 (SD 16 3) mds ha⁻¹ in autumn and 3 (SD 2 5) in spring Predation, therefore, was regarded as the main agent of rodent mortality throughout autumn and winter     

Variation in the size of foxes in Scotland

Foxes become larger from south to north in Scotland, independently of the climate, the prey taken or the productivity of the areas in which each population lives. In areas where fluctuating vole populations are important as food, foxes born in high vole years are no larger than those born in poor years. However foxes became smaller after a severe winter in north-east Scotland, followed by a gradual increase in the size of each year class through a series of years with mild winters and expanding rabbit populations. It is suggested that food availability is determining the average size of foxes through selection, and the north/south cline in size is the result of increased hunting hours at higher latitudes during winter. The selective advantage of different size animals under conditions of different food availability is discussed.     

Nonlinear effects of climate on boreal rodent dynamics: mild winters do not negate high‐amplitude cycles

Small rodents are key species in many ecosystems. In boreal and subarctic environments, their importance is heightened by pronounced multiannual population cycles. Alarmingly, the previously regular rodent cycles appear to be collapsing simultaneously in many areas. Climate change, particularly decreasing snow quality or quantity in winter, is hypothesized as a causal factor, but the evidence is contradictory. Reliable analysis of population dynamics and the influence of climate thereon necessitate spatially and temporally extensive data. We combined data on vole abundances and climate, collected at 33 locations throughout Finland from 1970 to 2011, to test the hypothesis that warming winters are causing a disappearance of multiannual vole cycles. We predicted that vole population dynamics exhibit geographic and temporal variation associated with variation in climate; reduced cyclicity should be observed when and where winter weather has become milder. We found that the temporal patterns in cyclicity varied between climatically different regions: a transient reduction in cycle amplitude in the coldest region, low‐amplitude cycles or irregular dynamics in the climatically intermediate regions, and strengthening cyclicity in the warmest region. Our results did not support the hypothesis that mild winters are uniformly leading to irregular dynamics in boreal vole populations. Long and cold winters were neither a prerequisite for high‐amplitude multiannual cycles, nor were mild winters with reduced snow cover associated with reduced winter growth rates. Population dynamics correlated more strongly with growing season than with winter conditions. Cyclicity was weakened by increasing growing season temperatures in the cold, but strengthened in the warm regions. High‐amplitude multiannual vole cycles emerge in two climatic regimes: a winter‐driven cycle in cold, and a summer‐driven cycle in warm climates. Finally, we show that geographic climatic gradients alone may not reliably predict biological responses to climate change.     

Fox predation on cyclic field vole populations in Britain

The diet of the red fox Vulpes vulpes L. was studied during three winter periods in spruce pklantations in Britain, during which time the cyclic field vole Microtus agrestis L. populations varied in abundance. Field voles and roe deer Capreolus capreolus L. were the two main prey species in the diet of the red fox. The contribution of lagomorphs to fox diet never exceeded 35% and species of small mammal other than field voles were of minor importance. The contribution of field voles was dependent on vole density. The non-linear density dependent relationship with a rather abrupt increase of field voles in fox did when vole density exceeded ca 100 voles ha⁻¹ was consistent with a prey-switching response. The contribution of field voles to fox diet during the low phase of population cycles was lower in Kielder Forest than in other ecosystems with cyclic vole populations. The number of foxes killed annually by forestry rangers was consistent with the evidence from other studies that foxes preying on cyclic small rodents might show a delayed numerical response to changes in vole abundance. Estimates of the maximum predation rate of the fox alone (200–290 voles ha⁻¹ of vole habitat year⁻¹) was well above a previously predicted value for the whole generalist predator community in Kielder Forest. Our data on the functional response of red foxes and estimates of their predation rates suggest that foxes should have a strong stabilising impact on vole populations, yet voles show characteristic 3-4 yr cycles.     

Natal conditions alter age-specific reproduction but not survival or senescence in a long-lived bird of prey

1. Natal conditions and senescence are two major factors shaping life-history traits of wild animals. However, such factors have rarely been investigated together, and it remains largely unknown whether they interact to affect age-specific performance. 2. We used 27 years of longitudinal data collected on tawny owls with estimates of prey density (field voles) from Kielder Forest (UK) to investigate how prey density at birth affects ageing patterns in reproduction and survival. 3. Natal conditions experienced by tawny owls, measured in terms of vole density, dramatically varied among cohorts and explained 87% of the deviance in first-year apparent survival (annual estimates ranging from 0·07 to 0·33). 4. We found evidence for senescence in survival for females as well as for males. Model-averaged estimates showed that adult survival probability declined linearly with age for females from age 1. In contrast, male survival probability, lower on average than for female, declined after a plateau at age 1-3. 5. We also found evidence for reproductive senescence (number of offspring). For females, reproductive performance increased until age 9 then declined. Males showed an earlier decline in reproductive performance with an onset of senescence at age 3. 6. Long-lasting effects of natal environmental conditions were sex specific. Female reproductive performance was substantially related to natal conditions (difference of 0·24 fledgling per breeding event between females born in the first or third quartile of vole density), whereas male performance was not. We found no evidence for tawny owls born in years with low prey density having accelerated rates of senescence. 7. Our results, combined with previous findings, suggest the way natal environmental conditions affect senescence varies not only across species but also within species according to gender and the demographic trait considered.     

Predation rate, prey preference and predator switching: experiments on voles and weasels

We studied the predation rate and prey selection of the least weasel ( Mustela nivalis nivalis ) on its two most common prey species in boreal environments, the bank vole ( Clethrionomys glareolus ) and the field vole ( Microtus agrestis ), in large outdoor enclosures. We also studied the response of weasels to odours of the two species in the laboratory. The enclosure experiment was conducted using constant vole densities (16 voles/ha) but with varying relative abundance of the two species. Weasels showed higher predation rates on bank voles, and males had higher predation rate than females. Females killed disproportionately more of the more abundant prey species, but they preferred bank voles to field voles when both were equally available. Overall, the predation rate also increased with increasing abundance of bank voles. Therefore our results are in agreement with earlier laboratory results showing preference for bank voles, even if no intrinsic preference for odours of either species was observed in our laboratory study. We suggest that the least weasel hunts according to prey availability, prey aggregation and suitability of hunting habitat, and that this causes the observed dependence of least weasels on field voles and emphasises the role of the field vole in the vole-weasel interaction in cyclic vole populations. Furthermore, our results suggest that predation by weasels may facilitate the coexistence of the two vole species via predator switching, and that it may cause the observed synchrony in dynamics between vole species.     

Predation on two vole species by a shared predator: antipredatory response and prey preference

In prey communities with shared predators, variation in prey vulnerability is a key factor in shaping community dynamics. Conversely, the hunting efficiency of a predator depends on the prey community structure, preferences of the predator and antipredatory behavioural traits of the prey. We studied experimentally, under seminatural field conditions, the preferences of a predator and the antipredatory responses of prey in a system consisting of two Myodes species of voles, the grey-sided vole (M. rufocanus Sund.) and the bank vole (M. glareolus Schreb.), and their specialist predator, the least weasel (Mustela nivalis nivalis L.). To quantify the preference of the weasels, we developed a new modelling framework that can be used for unbalanced data. The two vole species were hypothesised to have different habitat-dependent vulnerabilities. We created two habitats, open and forest, to provide different escape possibilities for the voles. We found a weak general preference of the weasels for the grey-sided voles over the bank voles, and a somewhat stronger preference specifically in open habitats. The weasels clearly preferred male grey-sided voles over females, whereas in bank voles, there was no difference. The activity of voles changed over time, so that voles increased their movements immediately after weasel introduction, but later adjusted their movements to times of lowered predation risk. Females that were more active had an elevated mortality risk, whereas in the case of males, the result was the opposite. We conclude that, in vulnerability to predation, the species- or habitat-specific characteristics of these prey species are playing a minor role compared to sex-specific characteristics.     

Variation in the diet composition of a generalist predator, the red fox, in relation to season and density of main prey

Diet composition of a generalist predator, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) in relation to season (winter or summer) and abundance of multi-annually cyclic voles was studied in western Finland from 1983 to 1995. The proportion of scats (PS; a total of 58 scats) including each food category was calculated for each prey group. Microtus voles (the field vole M. agrestis and the sibling vole M. rossiaemeridionalis) were the main prey group of foxes (PS = 0.55) and they frequently occurred in the scats both in the winter and summer (PSs 0.50 and 0.62, respectively). There was a positive correlation between the PSs of Microtus voles in the winter diet of foxes and the density indices of these voles in the previous autumn. Other microtine rodents (the bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus, the water vole Arvicola terrestris and the muskrat Ondatra zibethicus) were consumed more in winter than in summer. The unusually high small mustelid predation by red foxes (PS = approx. 0.10) in our study area gives qualitative support for the hypothesis on the limiting impact of mammalian predators on least weasel and stoat populations. None of the important prey groups was preyed upon more at low than at high densities of main prey (Microtus voles). This is consistent with the notion that red foxes are generalist predators that tend to opportunistically subsist on many prey groups. Among these prey groups, particularly hares and birds (including grouse), were frequently used as food by foxes.     

Spatial synchrony in vole population fluctuations – a field experiment

Three mechanisms have been proposed to induce spatial synchrony in fluctuations of small mammal populations: climate‐related environmental effects, predation and dispersal. We conducted a field experiment in western Finland to evaluate the relative roles of these mechanisms in inducing spatial synchrony among cyclic populations of field voles Microtus agrestis. The study was conducted during the increase and peak phases of a vole population cycle on four agricultural field sites situated 1.5–7.0 km apart. Each field contained two 0.5‐ha fenced enclosures and one 1‐ha unfenced control area. One enclosure per field allowed access by small mustelid predators and the other by avian predators; all enclosures prevented the dispersal of voles. The unfenced control areas allowed access by all predators as well as dispersal by voles. Enclosed vole populations were in a treatment‐wise asynchronous phase before the predator access treatments were applied. The growth rates of all enclosed populations were tightly synchronized during the course of the experiment. Conversely, synchrony both among the unfenced populations and between the fenced and unfenced populations was practically non‐existent. During winter, in the increase phase of the cycle, vole populations in all treatments declined to low densities due to a seasonal effect of winter food depletion. During summer, in the peak year of the vole cycle, all populations fluctuated in synchrony. At this time, both small mustelids and birds of prey appeared to be abundant enough to induce synchrony. Dispersal was identified as a potential contributor to synchronization, but the magnitude of its effects could not be reliably discerned. Our results indicate that no single mechanism can account for the observed patterns of spatial synchrony among cyclic northern vole populations. Rather, spatial synchronization is induced by different mechanisms, namely seasonality and predation, acting successively during different seasons and phases of the vole cycle.