Integrating Homo sapiens into ecological models: Imperatives of climate change

In the opening lecture at a 2013 Banff International Research Station (BIRS) workshop on the impact of climate change on biological invasions and population distributions, Henri Berestycki (École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales) asked a crucial question: Can a species keep pace with a changing climate? “Species” in this context was generally understood to be all living things on Earth (except humans). But mounting scientific evidence suggests that it is time to pose the parallel question: Can Homo sapiens keep pace with a changing climate? Furthermore, should we merely “keep pace”, or should we strive to get ahead and then do our utmost to stop any further climate change?In this paper we document the very real potential for climate change to have devastating consequences before the end of this century. The urgency of the situation calls for concerted action by anyone who understands the problem, and mathematical ecologists are uniquely trained to contribute to such efforts. We ask modellers to deliberately incorporate the species H. sapiens into their modelling work, and offer suggestions as to how this might be done. Ultimately modellers must seek ways to provide guidance to citizens and policy-makers as we all wrestle with the most important existential threat of our time.     

Density-dependent resistance of the gypsy moth <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lymantria dispar</Emphasis> to its nucleopolyhedrovirus,and the consequences for population dynamics

The processes controlling disease resistance can strongly influence the population dynamics of insect outbreaks. Evidence that disease resistance is density-dependent is accumulating, but the exact form of this relationship is highly variable from species to species. It has been hypothesized that insects experiencing high population densities might allocate more energy to disease resistance than those at lower densities, because they are more likely to encounter density-dependent pathogens. In contrast, the increased stress of high-density conditions might leave insects more vulnerable to disease. Both scenarios have been reported for various outbreak Lepidoptera in the literature. We tested the relationship between larval density and disease resistance with the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar) and one of its most important density-dependent mortality factors, the nucleopolyhedrovirus (NPV) LdMNPV, in a series of bioassays. Larvae were reared in groups at different densities, fed the virus individually, and then reared individually to evaluate response to infection. In this system, resistance to the virus decreased with increasing larval density. Similarly, time to death was faster at high densities than at lower densities. Implications of density–resistance relationships for insect–pathogen population dynamics were explored in a mathematical model. In general, an inverse relationship between rearing density and disease resistance has a stabilizing effect on population dynamics.     

The role of landscape characteristics for forage maturation and nutritional benefits of migration in red deer

Large herbivores gain nutritional benefits from following the sequential flush of newly emergent, high‐quality forage along environmental gradients in the landscape, termed green wave surfing. Which landscape characteristics underlie the environmental gradient causing the green wave and to what extent landscape characteristics alone explain individual variation in nutritional benefits remain unresolved questions. Here, we combine GPS data from 346 red deer (Cervus elaphus) from four partially migratory populations in Norway with the satellite‐derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), an index of plant phenology. We quantify whether migratory deer had access to higher quality forage than resident deer, how landscape characteristics within summer home ranges affected nutritional benefits, and whether differences in landscape characteristics could explain differences in nutritional gain between migratory and resident deer. We found that migratory red deer gained access to higher quality forage than resident deer but that this difference persisted even after controlling for landscape characteristics within the summer home ranges. There was a positive effect of elevation on access to high‐quality forage, but only for migratory deer. We discuss how the landscape an ungulate inhabits may determine its responses to plant phenology and also highlight how individual behavior may influence nutritional gain beyond the effect of landscape.     

Fuel deposition of three passerine bird species along the migration route

The rate at which migrant birds replenish their energy stores at intermittent stopovers largely determines overall migration speed, the manner in which migration proceeds and success of migration. In this study, data on the fuel deposition rate (FDR) of three long-distance migrants from 17 ringing sites along their autumn migration route were used to examine: (1) effects of endogenous factors on FDR, and (2) how relationships between exogenous factors and FDR affect the organisation of migration. We developed a model to estimate FDR from retrapped birds which takes into account time of day and various other factors which might influence FDR. The two endogenous factors, moult and current energy stores, generally reduced FDR. This may result in lower departure energy loads and more stopovers than expected from optimal migration theory. Differences between species with respect to seasonal, year-to-year and geographical patterns of FDR could be related to differences in availability and predictability of food resources, and help to explain differences in the organisation of migration. A low FDR in northern and central Europe could be related to low, but predictable, food resources and an early departure during moult of the reed warbler (Acrocephalus scirpaceus); FDRs varying between years were related to large spatial and year-to-year variation in the density of the main prey of the sedge warbler (Acrocephalus schoenobaenus); and a high FDR in the garden warbler (Sylvia borin) was related to abundant food resources, due to a switch from a purely invertebrate diet to a mixed diet including fruits which are abundant over large areas of Europe and north Africa. This study demonstrated that the organisation of migration is the outcome of a complex interplay of the seasonal timing of moult, food availability and predictability and a seasonal switch in diet, and can be modified by individual birds in response to a limited amount of time in which to migrate. Received: 26 April 1999 / Accepted: 24 September 1999     

Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease transmission

A precise definition of the basic reproduction number, , is presented for a general compartmental disease transmission model based on a system of ordinary differential equations. It is shown that, if , then the disease free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable; whereas if , then it is unstable. Thus, is a threshold parameter for the model. An analysis of the local centre manifold yields a simple criterion for the existence and stability of super- and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for near one. This criterion, together with the definition of , is illustrated by treatment, multigroup, staged progression, multistrain and vector–host models and can be applied to more complex models. The results are significant for disease control.     

Carotenoids and Alzheimer's disease: an insight into therapeutic role of retinoids in animal models

Carotenoids play a pivotal role in prevention of many degenerative diseases mediated by oxidative stress including neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer’s Disease (AD). The involvement of retinoids in physiology, AD pathology and their therapeutic role in vitro and in vivo has been extensively studied. This review focuses on the role of carotenoids like retinoic acid (RA), all trans retinoic acid (ATRA), lycopene and β-carotene in prevention of AD symptoms primarily through inhibition of amyloid beta (Aβ) formation, deposition and fibril formation either by reducing the levels of p35 or inhibiting corresponding enzymes. The role of antioxidant micronutrients in prevention or delaying of AD symptoms has been included. This study emphasizes the dietary supplementation of carotenoids to combat AD and warrants further studies on animal models to unravel their mechanism of neuroprotection.     

Towards a correct description of zooplankton feeding in models: Taking into account food-mediated unsynchronized vertical migration

Complex nature of foraging behaviour of zooplankton makes it difficult to describe adequately zooplankton grazing in models with vertical space. In mean-field models (based on systems of PDEs or coupled ODEs), zooplankton feeding at a given depth is normally computed as the product of the local functional response and the zooplankton density at this depth. Such simplification is often at odds with field observations which show the absence of clear relationship between intake rates of organisms and the ambient food density. The observed discrepancy is generic and is often caused by fast non-synchronous vertical migration of organisms with different nutrition status. In this paper, we suggest a simple way of incorporating unsynchronized short-term vertical migration of zooplankton into the mean-field modelling framework. We compute grazing of zooplankton in each layer depending on feeding activity of organisms in the layer. We take into account grazing impact of animals which are in the active phase of foraging cycle at the given moment of time but neglect the impact of animals which are in the non-active phase of the cycle (e.g. digesting food). Unsynchronized vertical migration determines the vertical distribution of actively feeding animals in layers depending on vertical distribution of food. In this paper, we compare two generic plankton models: (i) a model based on ‘classical’ grazing approach and (ii) a model incorporating food-mediated unsynchronized vertical migration of zooplankton. We show that including unsynchronized food-mediated migration would make the behaviour of a plankton model more realistic. This would imply a significant enhancement of ecosystem's stability and some additional mechanisms of regulation of algal blooms. In the system with food-mediated unsynchronized vertical migration, the control of phytoplankton by herbivorous becomes possible even for very large concentrations of nutrients in the water (formally, when the system's carrying capacity tends to infinity).     

The effect of treatment on pathogen virulence

The optimal virulence of a pathogen is determined by a trade-off between maximizing the rate of transmission and maximizing the duration of infectivity. Treatment measures such as curative therapy and case isolation exert selective pressure by reducing the duration of infectivity, reducing the value of duration-increasing strategies to the pathogen and favoring pathogen strategies that maximize the rate of transmission. We extend the trade-off models of previous authors, and represents the reproduction number of the pathogen as a function of the transmissibility, host contact rate, disease-induced mortality, recovery rate, and treatment rate, each of which may be influenced by the virulence. We find that when virulence is subject to a transmissibility-mortality trade-off, treatment can lead to an increase in optimal virulence, but that in other scenarios (such as the activity-recovery trade-off) treatment decreases the optimal virulence. Paradoxically, when levels of treatment rise with pathogen virulence, increasing control efforts may raise predicted levels of optimal virulence. Thus we show that conflict can arise between the epidemiological benefits of treatment and the evolutionary risks of heightened virulence.     

Mechanistic insights into the role of large carnivores for ecosystem structure and functioning

Large carnivores can exert top–down effects in ecosystems, but the size of these effects are largely unknown. Empirical investigation on the importance of large carnivores for ecosystem structure and functioning presents a number of challenges due to the large spatio-temporal scale and the complexity of such dynamics. Here, we applied a mechanistic global ecosystem model to investigate the influence of large-carnivore removal from undisturbed ecosystems. First, we simulated large-carnivore removal on the global scale to inspect the geographic pattern of top–down control and to disentangle the functional role of large carnivores in top–down control in different environmental contexts. Second, we conducted four small-scale ecosystem simulation experiments to understand direct and indirect changes in food-web structure under different environmental conditions. We found that the removal of top–down control exerted by large carnivores (> 21 kg) can trigger large trophic cascades, leading to an overall decrease in autotroph biomass globally. Furthermore, the loss of large carnivores resulted in an increase of mesopredators. The magnitude of these changes was positively related to primary productivity (NPP), in line with the ‘exploitation ecosystem hypothesis’. In addition, we found that seasonality in NPP dampened the magnitude of change following the removal of large carnivores. Our results reinforce the idea that large carnivores play a fundamental role in shaping ecosystems, and further declines and extinctions can trigger substantial ecosystem responses. Our findings also support previous studies suggesting that natural ecosystem dynamics have been severely modified and are still changing as a result of the widespread decline and extinction of large carnivores.