Extinction dynamics,population growth and seed banks

The goal of this paper is to test theoretical predictions about the effects of seed banks on population dynamics and extinction rates in variable environments using simulations based on data from a natural population of the winter annual Collinsia verna. In the simulations, we varied the frequency of demographically good and bad years and the autocorrelation between conditions in consecutive years to examine the impact of seed dormancy on population growth rate, extinction rate and time to extinction. The existence of a seed bank enhanced population growth rates under all environmental regimes except when good years were very frequent, but this enhancement was minimal. In addition, the presence of the seed bank decreased the likelihood of extinctions and increased the time to extinction. The time to extinction was longest when the environmental conditions were most unpredictable.     

Population structure, effective population size and adverse effects of stocking in the endangered Australian eastern freshwater cod Maccullochella ikei

Microsatellite markers were used to examine spatio-temporal genetic variation in the endangered eastern freshwater cod Maccullochella ikei in the Clarence River system, eastern Australia. High levels of population structure were detected. A model-based clustering analysis of multilocus genotypes identified four populations that were highly differentiated by F-statistics (F(ST) = 0·09 - 0·49; P < 0·05), suggesting fragmentation and restricted dispersal particularly among upstream sites. Hatchery breeding programmes were used to re-establish locally extirpated populations and to supplement remnant populations. Bayesian and frequency-based analyses of hatchery fingerling samples provided evidence for population admixture in the hatchery, with the majority of parental stock sourced from distinct upstream sites. Comparison between historical and contemporary wild-caught samples showed a significant loss of heterozygosity (21%) and allelic richness (24%) in the Mann and Nymboida Rivers since the commencement of stocking. Fragmentation may have been a causative factor; however, temporal shifts in allele frequencies suggest swamping with hatchery-produced M. ikei has contributed to the genetic decline in the largest wild population. This study demonstrates the importance of using information on genetic variation and population structure in the management of breeding and stocking programmes, particularly for threatened species.     

Measuring mast seeding behavior: relationships among population variation,individual variation and synchrony

Mast seeding, or masting, is the variable production of flowers, seeds, or fruit across years more or less synchronously by individuals within a population. A critical issue is the extent to which temporal variation in seed production over a collection of individuals can be viewed as arising from a combination of individual variation and synchrony among individuals. Studies of masting typically quantify such variation in terms of the coefficient of variation (CV). In this paper we examine mathematically how the population CV relates to the mean individual CV and synchrony, concluding that the relationship is a complex one which cannot isolate an overall measure of synchrony, and involves additional factors, principally the number of plants sampled and the mean productivity per plant. Our development suggests some simple approximate relationships of population CV to individual variability, synchrony and the number of individuals. These were found to fit quite well when applied to data from 59 studies which included seed production at the individual level.     

First evidence of spawning of eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua callarias) in the Belt Sea,the main spawning area of western Baltic cod (Gadus morhua L.)

Two cod stocks (western Baltic cod, WBC, and eastern Baltic cod, EBC) are managed in the Baltic Sea which is characterized by different main spawning areas and different main spawning periods. In this study we analyse the spatial and temporal occurrence of spawning individuals of both cod stocks in the main spawning grounds of the Baltic Sea based on eight microsatellite loci. Our results suggest that EBC (Gadus morhua callarias) has formed currently temporally stable, substantially homogeneous population not only in the Bornholm Sea (ICES SD: 25) but also in the Arkona Sea (ICES SD: 24). The presented analyses proved that EBC (G. m. callarias) can temporarily also spawn in the Belt Sea.     

Fecundity of Baltic cod: temporal and spatial variation

Potential and relative potential fecundity of 701 cod Gadus morhua caught in the Bornholm Basin (ICES Sub-division 25) during 1987–1996 and 106 from the Gdansk Deep (ICES Sub-division 26) in 1995 and 1996 varied significantly between years but neither between different spawning grounds nor between different sampling months within one spawning season. Growth and water temperature are factors identified to influence the mean relative fecundity explaining 66% of the variance between years.     

Population dynamics of the acanthocephalan Neoechinorhynchus brentnickoli (Neoechinorhynchidae) in Pacific fat sleeper,Dormitator latifrons,from Tres Palos Lagoon,Guerrero, Mexico

Population dynamics is a branch of ecology that studies temporal changes in the abundance of a population of organisms over time. This paper presents a study of the factors influencing population abundance of the acanthocephalan Neoechinorhynchus brentnickoli in Dormitator latifrons, the Pacific fat sleeper, from Tres Palos Lagoon. Fish were sampled from February 2012 to February 2013. A total of 688 adult fish were examined. The mean total length of fish varied significantly from 16.10 ± 1.93 cm (September 2012) to 20.78 ± 3.82 cm (August 2012). ‘Prevalence of acanthocephalans exceeded 90% in all months, and mature individuals were present year round, indicating that recruitment of helminths occurred throughout the year. Mean abundance ranged from 32.3 (July 2012) to 89.3 helminths per fish (March 2012) and was significantly lower in the rainy season. The body size of fish was the best predictor of acanthocephalan abundance in every month; larger fish harbored more acanthocephalans than smaller ones. Although parasite loads were high in some months (up to 500 acanthocephalans in one fish), obvious damage to the health of fish was not evident.     

The influence of mean climate trends and climate variance on beaver survival and recruitment dynamics

Ecologists are increasingly aware of the importance of environmental variability in natural systems. Climate change is affecting both the mean and the variability in weather and, in particular, the effect of changes in variability is poorly understood. Organisms are subject to selection imposed by both the mean and the range of environmental variation experienced by their ancestors. Changes in the variability in a critical environmental factor may therefore have consequences for vital rates and population dynamics. Here, we examine ≥90‐year trends in different components of climate (precipitation mean and coefficient of variation (CV); temperature mean, seasonal amplitude and residual variance) and consider the effects of these components on survival and recruitment in a population of Eurasian beavers (n = 242) over 13 recent years. Within climatic data, no trends in precipitation were detected, but trends in all components of temperature were observed, with mean and residual variance increasing and seasonal amplitude decreasing over time. A higher survival rate was linked (in order of influence based on Akaike weights) to lower precipitation CV (kits, juveniles and dominant adults), lower residual variance of temperature (dominant adults) and lower mean precipitation (kits and juveniles). No significant effects were found on the survival of nondominant adults, although the sample size for this category was low. Greater recruitment was linked (in order of influence) to higher seasonal amplitude of temperature, lower mean precipitation, lower residual variance in temperature and higher precipitation CV. Both climate means and variance, thus proved significant to population dynamics; although, overall, components describing variance were more influential than those describing mean values. That environmental variation proves significant to a generalist, wide‐ranging species, at the slow end of the slow‐fast continuum of life histories, has broad implications for population regulation and the evolution of life histories.     

Clone dynamics,population dynamics and vegetation pattern ofGlaux maritima on a Baltic sea shore meadow

The vegetative propagation ofGlaux maritima is correlated with growth habit which is inturn related to the light environment. Plant form and vegetative behaviour were recorded 1980–1984 and an attempt to correlate this to population dynamics and vegetation development was made.The type of vegetative propagation gives rise to a size hierarchy of propagules and thus a strong within clone dynamics. A range of life stages may be permanently present in a clone. Clones from different parts of a shore meadow have different patterns of vegetative propagation. The offshoot growth behaviour can be used to explain vegetation patterns and neighbour relationships.     

Effects of varying natural mortality and selectivity on the assessment of eastern Baltic cod (Gadus morhua Linnaeus, 1758) stock

In 2014, the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) was unexpectedly unable to provide an analytical assessment of eastern Baltic cod stock; factors such as data issues, assessment methodology, and the ecological situation of cod were indicated as the reasons for this failure. Some evidence suggests that the natural mortality (M) of cod could increase substantially in forthcoming years and that the selectivity could change. In this paper, age‐structured and stock‐production assessment models were applied to simulate the dynamics of cod stock; in the models, both constant and increasing natural mortalities were permitted. In the age‐structured model, the effects of selectivity related to the cod size on the cod assessment were also analysed. In addition, stock with characteristics similar to Baltic cod stock and increasing natural mortality was generated and assessed with the age‐structured model using both constant and increasing M. It was shown that models with increasing natural mortality of cod in recent years perform much better than models with constant natural mortality in terms of the distribution of residuals and retrospective patterns. The models with size‐dependent selectivity did not perform better than other standard assessments. The assessment of generated stock (where natural mortality was increasing) with constant natural mortality in the assessment model showed a poor distribution of residuals and strong retrospective patterns, similar to the ICES assessment with constant M. The conducted simulations strongly suggest that the main reason for the poor recent cod assessment is the increase in natural mortality, which is not considered in the assessment methodology.     

The exploitation of living resources in the Dutch Wadden Sea: a historical overview

An overview, based on written sources and personal observations, is presented of exploitation of living resources in and around the Dutch Wadden Sea during the past few centuries. It is concluded that before about 1900 exploitation was almost unrestricted. Exploitation of plants has been documented for saltmarshes and eelgrass beds. Fisheries have occurred for two species of hydroids, two species of polychaetes, one echinoderm species, at least seven species of molluscs, three species of crustaceans, and tens of species of fish. Hunting and egg collecting targeted almost all species of birds. Finally, two species of seals were exploited: information on exploitation of cetaceans is not available. Hence, it is likely that overexploitation may have been involved in the extirpation of several species. This supports an earlier suggestion that overexploitation played a part in the disappearance of at least 17 species from the Dutch Wadden Sea. This conclusion is confirmed by the observation that several extirpated species have returned after protective measures were introduced for the Dutch Wadden Sea area.     

Population dynamics and harvesting of semelparous species with phenotypic and genotypic variability in reproductive age

We study the evolution of polymorphic life histories in anadromous semelparous salmon and the effects of harvesting. We derive dynamic phenotypic and genetic ESS models for describing the evolutionary dynamics. We show in our deterministic analysis that polymorphisms are not possible in a panmictic random mating population. Instead, genetic or behavioral polymorphisms may be observed in populations with assortative mating systems. Positive assortative mating may be supported and generated by behavioral and phenotypic traits like male mate choice, spawning ground selection by phenotype, or within-river homing-migration-distance by size. In the case of an evolutionarily stable dimorphism, the ESS is characterized by a reproductive ideal free distribution such that at an equilibrium the individuals are indifferent from the fitness point of view between the two life histories of early and late reproduction. Different strategy models - that is, phenotypic and genetic ESS models - yield identical behavioral predictions and, consequently, genetics does not seem to play an important role in the present model. An evolutionary response to increased fishing mortality is obvious and may have resource management implications. High sea fishing mortalities drive the populations toward early spawning. Thus it is possible that unselective harvesting at sea may eliminate, depending on the biological system, behavioral polymorphisms or genetic heterozygozity and drive the population to a monomorphic one. If within-river homing migration distances depend on the size of fish, unselective harvesting at sea, or selective harvesting of spawning runs in rivers, may reduce local population sizes on spawning grounds high up rivers. Finally, harvesting in a population may cause a switch in a dominant life-history strategy in a population so that anticipated sustainable yields cannot be realized in practice.     

Ecological forecasting under climate change: the case of Baltic cod

Good decision making for fisheries and marine ecosystems requires a capacity to anticipate the consequences of management under different scenarios of climate change. The necessary ecological forecasting calls for ecosystem-based models capable of integrating multiple drivers across trophic levels and properly including uncertainty. The methodology presented here assesses the combined impacts of climate and fishing on marine food-web dynamics and provides estimates of the confidence envelope of the forecasts. It is applied to cod (Gadus morhua) in the Baltic Sea, which is vulnerable to climate-related decline in salinity owing to both direct and indirect effects (i.e. through species interactions) on early-life survival. A stochastic food web-model driven by regional climate scenarios is used to produce quantitative forecasts of cod dynamics in the twenty-first century. The forecasts show how exploitation would have to be adjusted in order to achieve sustainable management under different climate scenarios.     

Genetic variation and population structure of cod, Gadus morhua L., in some fjords in northern Norway

Biochemical genetic polymorphism in cod from several fjords in Troms, northern Norway was analysed. Gene frequencies at several polymorphic loci ( Hb, Pgi, Ldh, Pgm, Gpd and Idh ) are given. Significant variation was found both within and between fjords, and even between samples from the same locality sampled in different years, indicating a mosaic structure of the cod population in the area studied. The results of the haemoglobin variation are compared to similar results obtained more than 20 years ago in the same and adjacent areas. The biochemical genetic variation is discussed in relation to stability of gene frequencies, isolation mechanisms and migration patterns.     

亚热带-温带过渡区秦岭落叶阔叶林幼苗组成及数量动态研究

以秦岭落叶阔叶林25 hm²固定样地的木本植物幼苗为研究对象,于2015-2019年对幼苗种类、数量、萌发和死亡情况进行调查,并对幼苗的物种组成、数量及动态特征进行分析。结果显示：5年间调查到的幼苗分属24科42属,共69个物种,累计记录11 408株;样地中的树种组成和优势树种组成基本不变,但整体物种数有减少趋势;幼苗数量在年际间和不同物种间有较大差异,17个物种幼苗数量较多,大于100株,其总和占幼苗总量的56.28%,产生新增幼苗的物种有53个,累计增加6280株;死亡幼苗6929株,其中4469株为新生幼苗,占新增幼苗总数的74.14%,新苗的死亡数远远大于旧苗死亡数;幼苗新增和死亡的高峰期大致吻合,出现在每年的5-7月。整体看来,秦岭大样地的幼苗数量处于平稳波动状态,物种更新较为稳定。     

Palaeobiology of a Biradiolites mooretownensis rudist lithosome: seasonality,reproductive cyclicity and population dynamics

Hennhöfer, D., Götz, S. & Mitchell, S.F. 2012: Palaeobiology of a Biradiolites mooretownensis rudist lithosome: seasonality, reproductive cyclicity and population dynamics. Lethaia, Vol. 45, pp. 450–461. During the Cretaceous, rudist bivalves were among the most important benthic carbonate producers on tropical to sub‐tropical carbonate platforms. Yet questions concerning the biology of rudist bouquets remain unanswered to a great extent. In this study a monospecific bouquet of the small radiolitid rudist Biradiolites mooretownensis has been evaluated from a palaeobiological angle. Three‐dimensional, high‐resolution, quantitative analysis provides a detailed evaluation of growth and reproduction in an in situ rudist association. A total of 1237 consecutive tomograms with a vertical spacing of 0.1 mm were produced of which 1150 have been digitally measured for total area, number of specimens, packing density, spat density, recruitment, survival time, mortality and accommodation space. The results show constant coverage of about 60%, a stable packing density of 3.2 specimens per cm² and constant reproduction throughout the bouquet. Time series analysis (spectral analysis) using PAST statistical software shows cyclic spat density every 14.9 mm of vertical growth. Combined with the results of the δ¹⁸O isotope analysis (showing cyclicities of 14 mm) one reproduction cycle appears to be annual. 46.4% of all counted specimens died before 3 mm of vertical growth. More than 93% of the initial spat does not exceed 15 mm shell height or 1 year respectively. Two mortality peaks in the juvenile’s life at 4 and 10–15 mm shell height either represent important obstacles in the ontogenetic development of the species or reflect external influences. □ Biradiolites, grinding tomography, palaeobiology, population dynamics, reproduction, rudists, sclerochronology, seasonality.     

Forest dynamics,differential mortality and variable recruitment probabilities

Abstract. Both spatial and temporal variability in recruitment probabilities can lead to coexistence in gap-phase regenerating forests which would otherwise tend to be dominated by fewer species. Using modified Markov models, the potential roles were examined of temporal variability and differential mortality rates among species in the dynamics of a forest for which spatial variability has been rejected as a strong factor leading to coexistence. Differential longevity modifies results obtained from a simple Markov model: it exerts a strong influence on the equilibrium species composition, on the rate of community change and on the time a community requires to reach equilibrium. Simulations with varying transition probabilities mimicked a changing climate, producing four main results: 1. Unless the duration of climate states is very long or very short, forest composition is in a continual state of disequilibrium. 2. Species vary in their response times to changing climate. 3. The mean abundance of each species under a varying climate scenario is different from that expected from the mean climate state. 4. The rare, long-lived species was favored by climatic fluctuations at the expense of more common shorter lived species. Differential mortality rates provide an equilibrium-based mechanism for coexistence, and temporally fluctuating recruitment probabilities a non-equilibrium mechanism. Composition could be maintained by differential longevity among species and climatic fluctuations allowing periodic recruitment of the less common species.     

A century of fish growth in relation to climate change,population dynamics and exploitation

Marine ecosystems, particularly in high‐latitude regions such as the Arctic, have been significantly affected by human activities and contributions to climate change. Evaluating how fish populations responded to past changes in their environment is helpful for evaluating their future patterns, but is often hindered by the lack of long‐term biological data available. Using otolith increments of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) as a proxy for individual growth, we developed a century‐scale biochronology (1924–2014) based on the measurements of 3,894 fish, which revealed significant variations in cod growth over the last 91 years. We combined mixed‐effect modeling and path analysis to relate these growth variations to selected climate, population and fishing‐related factors. Cod growth was negatively related to cod population size and positively related to capelin population size, one of the most important prey items. This suggests that density‐dependent effects are the main source of growth variability due to competition for resources and cannibalism. Growth was also positively correlated with warming sea temperatures but negatively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, suggesting contrasting effects of climate warming at different spatial scales. Fishing pressure had a significant but weak negative direct impact on growth. Additionally, path analysis revealed that the selected growth factors were interrelated. Capelin biomass was positively related to sea temperature and negatively influenced by herring biomass, while cod biomass was mainly driven by fishing mortality. Together, these results give a better understanding of how multiple interacting factors have shaped cod growth throughout a century, both directly and indirectly.     

Evolution of exploitation ecosystems I. Predation,foraging ecology and population dynamics in herbivores

Summary The hypothesis of exploitation ecosystems was reanalysed using the model of Armstrong (1979) which simultaneously deals with population dynamics and evolution. The results indicate that the prediction of Oksanenet al. (1981) of strict predation limitation of herbivores in productive ecosystems does not hold for coevolved systems. Depending on the nature of herbivore-carnivore coevolution, herbivore biomass may level off at a threshold productivity value or increase monotonously with increasing primary productivity, though at a strongly reduced rate in productive ecosystems. Under both circumstances, increasing primary productivity is predicted to be accompanied by gradual replacement of genuine folivores by semi-granivores and true granivores. The dominating guild members are predicted to show some degree of resource-limitation, although only granivores are predicted to be chiefly resource-limited even in the most productive ecosystems. Data on arctic-to-temperate patterns in the community structure of herbivorous vertebrates conform to the implications of the analysis.