Cancer risk estimates from the combined Japanese A-bomb and Hodgkin cohorts for doses relevant to radiotherapy

Most information on the dose–response of radiation-induced cancer is derived from data on the A-bomb survivors who were exposed to γ-rays and neutrons. Since, for radiation protection purposes, the dose span of main interest is between 0 and 1 Gy, the analysis of the A-bomb survivors is usually focused on this range. However, estimates of cancer risk for doses above 1 Gy are becoming more important for radiotherapy patients and for long-term manned missions in space research. Therefore in this work, emphasis is placed on doses relevant for radiotherapy with respect to radiation-induced solid cancer. The analysis of the A-bomb survivor’s data was extended by including two extra high-dose categories (4–6 Sv and 6–13 Sv) and by an attempted combination with cancer data on patients receiving radiotherapy for Hodgkin’s disease. In addition, since there are some recent indications for a high neutron dose contribution, the data were fitted separately for three different values for the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of the neutrons (10, 35 and 100) and a variable RBE as a function of dose. The data were fitted using a linear, a linear-exponential and a plateau-dose–response relationship. Best agreement was found for the plateau model with a dose-varying RBE. It can be concluded that for doses above 1 Gy there is a tendency for a nonlinear dose–response curve. In addition, there is evidence of a neutron RBE greater than 10 for the A-bomb survivor data. Many problems and uncertainties are involved in combing these two datasets. However, since very little is currently known about the shape of dose–response relationships for radiation-induced cancer in the radiotherapy dose range, this approach could be regarded as a first attempt to acquire more information on this area. The work presented here also provides the first direct evidence that the bending over of the solid cancer excess risk dose response curve for the A-bomb survivors, generally observed above 2 Gy, is due to cell killing effects.     

Postoperative cataract cases among atomic bomb survivors: radiation dose response and threshold

Recent evidence argues against a high threshold dose for vision-impairing radiation-induced cataractogenesis. We conducted logistic regression analysis to estimate the dose response and used a likelihood profile procedure to determine the best-fitting threshold model among 3761 A-bomb survivors who underwent medical examinations during 2000-2002 for whom radiation dose estimates were available, including 479 postoperative cataract cases. The analyses indicated a statistically significant dose-response increase in the prevalence of postoperative cataracts [odds ratio (OR), 1.39; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.24-1.55] at 1 Gy, with no indication of upward curvature in the dose response. The dose response was suggestive when the restricted dose range of 0 to 1 Gy was examined. A nonsignificant dose threshold of 0.1 Gy (95% CI, <0-0.8) was found. The prevalence of postoperative cataracts in A-bomb survivors increased significantly with A-bomb radiation dose. The estimate (0.1 Gy) and upper bound (0.8 Gy) of the dose threshold for operative cataract prevalence was much lower than the threshold of 2-5 Gy usually assumed by the radiation protection community and was statistically compatible with no threshold at all.     

Allowing for random errors in radiation dose estimates for the atomic bomb survivor data

The presence of random errors in the individual radiation dose estimates for the A-bomb survivors causes underestimation of radiation effects in dose-response analyses, and also distorts the shape of dose-response curves. Statistical methods are presented which will adjust for these biases, provided that a valid statistical model for the dose estimation errors is used. Emphasis is on clarifying some rather subtle statistical issues. For most of this development the distinction between radiation dose and exposure is not critical. The proposed methods involve downward adjustment of dose estimates, but this does not imply that the dosimetry system is faulty. Rather, this is a part of the dose-response analysis required to remove biases in the risk estimates. The primary focus of this report is on linear dose-response models, but methods for linear-quadratic models are also considered briefly. Some plausible models for the dose estimation errors are considered, which have typical errors in a range of 30-40% of the true values, and sensitivity analysis of the resulting bias corrections is provided. It is found that for these error models the resulting estimates of excess cancer risk based on linear models are about 6-17% greater than estimates that make no allowance for dose estimation errors. This increase in risk estimates is reduced to about 4-11% if, as has often been done recently, survivors with dose estimates above 4 Gy are eliminated from the analysis.     

Risk of second primary thyroid cancer after radiotherapy for a childhood cancer in a large cohort study: an update from the childhood cancer survivor study

Previous studies have indicated that thyroid cancer risk after a first childhood malignancy is curvilinear with radiation dose, increasing at low to moderate doses and decreasing at high doses. Understanding factors that modify the radiation dose response over the entire therapeutic dose range is challenging and requires large numbers of subjects. We quantified the long-term risk of thyroid cancer associated with radiation treatment among 12,547 5-year survivors of a childhood cancer (leukemia, Hodgkin lymphoma and non-Hodgkin lymphoma, central nervous system cancer, soft tissue sarcoma, kidney cancer, bone cancer, neuroblastoma) diagnosed between 1970 and 1986 in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study using the most current cohort follow-up to 2005. There were 119 subsequent pathologically confirmed thyroid cancer cases, and individual radiation doses to the thyroid gland were estimated for the entire cohort. This cohort study builds on the previous case-control study in this population (69 thyroid cancer cases with follow-up to 2000) by allowing the evaluation of both relative and absolute risks. Poisson regression analyses were used to calculate standardized incidence ratios (SIR), excess relative risks (ERR) and excess absolute risks (EAR) of thyroid cancer associated with radiation dose. Other factors such as sex, type of first cancer, attained age, age at exposure to radiation, time since exposure to radiation, and chemotherapy (yes/no) were assessed for their effect on the linear and exponential quadratic terms describing the dose-response relationship. Similar to the previous analysis, thyroid cancer risk increased linearly with radiation dose up to approximately 20 Gy, where the relative risk peaked at 14.6-fold (95% CI, 6.8-31.5). At thyroid radiation doses >20 Gy, a downturn in the dose-response relationship was observed. The ERR model that best fit the data was linear-exponential quadratic. We found that age at exposure modified the ERR linear dose term (higher radiation risk with younger age) (P < 0.001) and that sex (higher radiation risk among females) (P = 0.008) and time since exposure (higher radiation risk with longer time) (P < 0.001) modified the EAR linear dose term. None of these factors modified the exponential quadratic (high dose) term. Sex, age at exposure and time since exposure were found to be significant modifiers of the radiation-related risk of thyroid cancer and as such are important factors to account for in clinical follow-up and thyroid cancer risk estimation among childhood cancer survivors.     

Potential Reduction of Contralateral Second Breast-Cancer Risks by Prophylactic Mammary Irradiation: Validation in a Breast-Cancer-Prone Mouse Model

Background

Long-term breast-cancer survivors have a highly elevated risk (1 in 6 at 20 years) of contralateral second breast cancer. This high risk is associated with the presence of multiple pre-malignant cell clones in the contralateral breast at the time of primary breast cancer diagnosis. Mechanistic analyses suggest that a moderate dose of X-rays to the contralateral breast can kill these pre-malignant clones such that, at an appropriate Prophylactic Mammary Irradiation (PMI) dose, the long-term contralateral breast cancer risk in breast cancer survivors would be considerably decreased.

Aims

To test the predicted relationship between PMI dose and cancer risk in mammary glands that have a high risk of developing malignancies.

Methods

We tested the PMI concept using MMTV-PyVT mammary-tumor-prone mice. Mammary glands on one side of each mouse were irradiated with X-rays, while those on the other side were shielded from radiation. The unshielded mammary glands received doses of 0, 4, 8, 12 and 16Gy in 4-Gy fractions.

Results

In high-risk mammary glands exposed to radiation doses designed for PMI (12 and 16 Gy), tumor incidence rates were respectively decreased by a factor of 2.2 (95% CI, 1.1-5.0) at 12 Gy, and a factor of 3.1 (95% CI, 1.3-8.3) at 16 Gy, compared to those in the shielded glands that were exposed to very low radiation doses. The same pattern was seen for PMI-exposed mammary glands relative to zero-dose controls.

Conclusions

The pattern of cancer risk reduction by PMI was consistent with mechanistic predictions. Contralateral breast PMI may thus have promise as a spatially targeted breast-conserving option for reducing the current high risk of contralateral second breast cancers. For estrogen-receptor positive primary tumors, PMI might optimally be used concomitantly with systemically delivered chemopreventive drugs such as tamoxifen or aromatase inhibitors, while for estrogen-receptor negative tumors, PMI might be used alone.     

Radiation dose dependences in the atomic bomb survivor cancer mortality data: a model-free visualization

Chomentowski, M., Kellerer, A. M. and Pierce, D. A. Radiation Dose Dependences in the Atomic Bomb Survivor Cancer Mortality Data: A Model-Free Visualization. The standard approach to obtaining nominal risk coefficients for radiation-related cancer involves fitting linear or linear-quadratic dose-response functions. This is usually complemented by a more direct visualization where the data are subdivided into distinct dose categories and the effect level is quantified for each of these categories. Such model-free computations, however, can be quite dependent on the arbitrary choice of the cutpoints in dose. The method proposed here largely avoids this arbitrariness by choosing a dose category width-constant on a log scale-to obtain the desired degree of smoothing, and then superimposing results for all placements of the resulting log-dose grids. The method is applied to leukemia and solid cancer mortality of the A-bomb survivors.     

Cancer risk estimates for gamma-rays with regard to organ-specific doses

A previous analysis of the solid cancer mortality data for 1950-1990 from the Japanese life-span study of the A-bomb survivors has assessed the solid cancer risk coefficients for gamma-rays in terms of the low dose risk coefficient ERR/Gy, i.e. the initial slope of the ERR vs. dose relation, and also in terms of the more precisely estimated intermediate dose risk coefficient, ERR(D1)/D1, for a reference dose, D1, which was chosen to be 1 Gy. The computations were performed for tentatively assumed values 20-50 of the neutron RBE against the reference dose and in terms of organ-averaged doses, rather than the traditionally applied colon doses. The resulting risk estimate for a dose of 1 Gy was about half as large as the most recent UNSCEAR estimate. The present assessment repeats the earlier analysis with two major extensions. It parallels computations based on organ-average doses with computations based on organ-specific doses and it updates the previous results by using the cancer mortality data for 1950-1997 which have recently been made available. With an assumed neutron RBE of 35, the resulting intermediate dose estimate of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for solid cancer mortality for a working population (ages 25-65 years) is 0.059/Gy with the attained-age model, and 0.044/Gy with the age-at-exposure model. For a population of all ages, 0.055/Gy is obtained with the attained-age model and 0.073/Gy with the age-at-exposure model. These values are up to about 20% higher than those obtained in the previous analysis with the 1950-1990 data. However, considerably more curvature in the dose-effect relation is now supported by the computations. A dose and dose-rate reduction factor DDREF=2 is now much more in line with the data than before. With this factor the LAR for a working population is--averaged over the age-at-exposure and the age-attained model--equal to 0.026/Gy. This is only half as large as the current ICRP estimate which is also based on the assumption DDREF=2.     

Experimental derivation of relative biological effectiveness of A-bomb neutrons in Hiroshima and Nagasaki and implications for risk assessment

Epidemiological data on the health effects of A-bomb radiation in Hiroshima and Nagasaki provide the framework for setting limits for radiation risk and radiological protection. However, uncertainty remains in the equivalent dose, because it is generally believed that direct derivation of the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons from the epidemiological data on the survivors is difficult. To solve this problem, an alternative approach has been taken. The RBE of polyenergetic neutrons was determined for chromosome aberration formation in human lymphocytes irradiated in vitro, compared with published data for tumor induction in experimental animals, and validated using epidemiological data from A-bomb survivors. The RBE of fission neutrons was dependent on dose but was independent of the energy spectrum. The same RBE regimen was observed for lymphocyte chromosome aberrations and tumors in mice and rats. Used as a weighting factor for A-bomb survivors, this RBE system was superior in eliminating the city difference in chromosome aberration frequencies and cancer mortality. The revision of the equivalent dose of A-bomb radiation using DS02 weighted by this RBE system reduces the cancer risk by a factor of 0.7 compared with the current estimates using DS86, with neutrons weighted by a constant RBE of 10.     

Studies of the mortality of A-bomb survivors. 9. Mortality, 1950-1985: Part 3. Noncancer mortality based on the revised doses (DS86).

Deaths in the RERF Life Span Study (LSS) sample have been determined for the years 1950-1985 and an analysis of cancer mortality with the revised DS86 doses has been described separately. In this report, we examine the relationship to dose of deaths from all diseases other than cancer. Although the evidence is still limited, there seems to be an excess risk from noncancer death at high doses (2 or 3 Gy and over). Statistically, a pure quadratic or a linear-threshold model [the estimated threshold dose is 1.4 Gy (0.6-2.8 Gy)] is found to fit better than a simple linear or linear-quadratic model. This increase in noncancer mortality is statistically demonstrable, generally, after 1965 and among the younger survivors (less than 40 at the time of the bombing), suggesting a sensitivity for this age group. For specific causes of death, an excess in relative risk at the high dose level, that is, 2 Gy or more, is seen in circulatory and digestive diseases. The relative risk is, however, much smaller than that for cancer. These findings, based as they are on death certificates, have their limitations. Most significant, perhaps, is the possible erroneous attribution of radiation-related cancer deaths to other causes. At present, the contribution such errors may make to the apparent increase in non-cancer deaths at the higher doses cannot be estimated as rigorously as is obviously desirable. However, even now, this increase does not appear to be fully explicable in terms of errors in classification. Further follow-up of mortality in this LSS cohort as well as disease revealed by the biennial physical examinations of the morbidity subsample (Adult Health Study) of the LSS cohort will be needed to confirm this suggestion of a radiation-related increase in mortality from causes other than cancer, and to determine whether it results in a demonstrable life shortening among the heavily exposed A-bomb survivors.     

Analysis of the epidemiological data concerning radiation carcinogenic effects and approaches to the low doses' upper limits determination in the aspect of a threshold of the unhealthy influences of ionizing radiation

The analysis of the epidemiological data regarding cancer mortality in cohorts of Japanese A-bomb survivors and Chermobyl liquidators exposed to different doses suggests that there are good reasons for recognizing the threshold of the radiocarcinogenic effect in the region of about 200 Gy (mSv). The analysis of solid cancer mortality in Japanese cohort, which exceeded the expected one in a dose diapason of 5-200 mSv, revealed a (quasi) plateau in a dose-effect curve and led to the conclusion that the nature of the overshoot is non-radiogenic. The analysis of supposedly dose dependent leucosis incidence in the limited low dose diapason in the Chernobyl cohort showed that the real coefficient of the excess absolute or relative radiation risk could not be received in the case because the larger part curve was placed under the control level. In supporting the principle of single hit in a cell nucleus as a base of microdosimetric determination of low radiation doses, the approach to objective delimitation between low, intermediate and high doses regions has been proposed. The low doses upper limit of sparse ionizing radiation for cell nucleus of 8 microns in diameter has been evaluated as 0.65 mGy. It can serve for evaluation of the dose rate threshold regarding the safe chronic radiation levels in the environment.     

Risk of second bone sarcoma following childhood cancer: role of radiation therapy treatment

Bone sarcoma as a second malignancy is rare but highly fatal. The present knowledge about radiation-absorbed organ dose–response is insufficient to predict the risks induced by radiation therapy techniques. The objective of the present study was to assess the treatment-induced risk for bone sarcoma following a childhood cancer and particularly the related risk of radiotherapy. Therefore, a retrospective cohort of 4,171 survivors of a solid childhood cancer treated between 1942 and 1986 in France and Britain has been followed prospectively. We collected detailed information on treatments received during childhood cancer. Additionally, an innovative methodology has been developed to evaluate the dose–response relationship between bone sarcoma and radiation dose throughout this cohort. The median follow-up was 26 years, and 39 patients had developed bone sarcoma. It was found that the overall incidence was 45-fold higher [standardized incidence ratio 44.8, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 31.0–59.8] than expected from the general population, and the absolute excess risk was 35.1 per 100,000 person-years (95 % CI 24.0–47.1). The risk of bone sarcoma increased slowly up to a cumulative radiation organ absorbed dose of 15 Gy [hazard ratio (HR) = 8.2, 95 % CI 1.6–42.9] and then strongly increased for higher radiation doses (HR for 30 Gy or more 117.9, 95 % CI 36.5–380.6), compared with patients not treated with radiotherapy. A linear model with an excess relative risk per Gy of 1.77 (95 % CI 0.6213–5.935) provided a close fit to the data. These findings have important therapeutic implications: Lowering the radiation dose to the bones should reduce the incidence of secondary bone sarcomas. Other therapeutic solutions should be preferred to radiotherapy in bone sarcoma-sensitive areas.     

Prediction of Acute Radiation Mucositis using an Oral Mucosal Dose Surface Model in Carbon Ion Radiotherapy for Head and Neck Tumors

Purpose

To evaluate the dose-response relationship for development of acute radiation mucositis (ARM) using an oral mucosal dose surface model (OMDS-model) in carbon ion radiotherapy (C-ion RT) for head and neck tumors.

Methods

Thirty-nine patients receiving C-ion RT for head and neck cancer were evaluated for ARM (once per week for 6 weeks) according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events (CTCAE), version 4.0, and the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) scoring systems. The irradiation schedule typically used was 64 Gy [relative biological effectiveness (RBE)] in 16 fractions for 4 weeks. Maximum point doses in the palate and tongue were compared with ARM in each patient.

Results

The location of the ARM coincided with the high-dose area in the OMDS-model. There was a clear dose-response relationship between maximum point dose and ARM grade assessed using the RTOG criteria but not the CTCAE. The threshold doses for grade 2–3 ARM in the palate and tongue were 43.0 Gy(RBE) and 54.3 Gy(RBE), respectively.

Conclusions

The OMDS-model was useful for predicting the location and severity of ARM. Maximum point doses in the model correlated well with grade 2–3 ARM.     

Radiotherapy for non-malignant shoulder syndrome: Is there a risk for radiation-induced carcinogenesis?

PurposeTo estimate the organ-specific probability for carcinogenesis following radiotherapy for non-malignant shoulder syndrome.MethodsPhoton-beam radiation therapy to 6 Gy for shoulder syndrome was simulated with a Monte Carlo code. An androgynous computational phantom representing a typical adult was used to calculate the radiation dose to out-of-field organs having a predilection for carcinogenesis. The organ-specific lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for out-of-field cancer induction was estimated by the organ dose calculations and the proper risk factors introduced by the BEIR-VII report. The average dose (D_av) and organ equivalent dose (OED) of lung, which was partially included within the treatment volume, was found from 3d-conformal radiotherapy plans. The D_av and OED were used to estimate the lung cancer risk with a linear and mechanistic models, respectively. All risk assessments were made for 50- and 60-year-old male and female patients.ResultsMonte Carlo simulations resulted in an out-of-field organ dose range of 0.7–48.4 mGy. The LARs for out-of-field cancer induction were (1.4 × 10⁻⁴)% to (2.8 × 10⁻²)%. These probabilities were at least 403 times lower than the respective lifetime intrinsic risk (LIR) values. The D_av and OED of lung was up to 164.9 and 142.3 mGy, respectively. The LAR for developing lung malignancies varied from 0.11 to 0.18% by the model used and the patient’s age and gender. The lung cancer risks were 36–64 times smaller than the LIRs.ConclusionsThe estimated probabilities for developing malignancies due to radiotherapy for non-malignant shoulder syndrome are minor relative to the natural cancer occurrence rates.     

Motor training programs of arm and hand in patients with MS according to different levels of the ICF: a systematic review

Background

Breast cancer survivors, particularly those treated with chemotherapy, are at significantly increased risk for long-term cognitive and neurobiologic impairments. These deficits tend to involve skills that are subserved by distributed brain networks. Additionally, neuroimaging studies have shown a diffuse pattern of brain structure changes in chemotherapy-treated breast cancer survivors that might impact large-scale brain networks.

Methods

We therefore applied graph theoretical analysis to compare the gray matter structural networks of female breast cancer survivors with a history of chemotherapy treatment and healthy age and education matched female controls.

Results

Results revealed reduced clustering coefficient and small-world index in the brain network of the breast cancer patients across a range of network densities. In addition, the network of the breast cancer group had less highly interactive nodes and reduced degree/centrality in the frontotemporal regions compared to controls, which may help explain the common impairments of memory and executive functioning among these patients.

Conclusions

These results suggest that breast cancer and chemotherapy may decrease regional connectivity as well as global network organization and integration, reducing efficiency of the network. To our knowledge, this is the first report of altered large-scale brain networks associated with breast cancer and chemotherapy.     

The efficacy of exercise in reducing depressive symptoms among cancer survivors: a meta-analysis

Introduction

The purpose of this meta-analysis was to examine the efficacy of exercise to reduce depressive symptoms among cancer survivors. In addition, we examined the extent to which exercise dose and clinical characteristics of cancer survivors influence the relationship between exercise and reductions in depressive symptoms.

Methods

We conducted a systematic search identifying randomized controlled trials of exercise interventions among adult cancer survivors, examining depressive symptoms as an outcome. We calculated effect sizes for each study and performed weighted multiple regression moderator analysis.

Results

We identified 40 exercise interventions including 2,929 cancer survivors. Diverse groups of cancer survivors were examined in seven exercise interventions; breast cancer survivors were examined in 26; prostate cancer, leukemia, and lymphoma were examined in two; and colorectal cancer in one. Cancer survivors who completed an exercise intervention reduced depression more than controls, d ₊ = −0.13 (95% CI: −0.26, −0.01). Increases in weekly volume of aerobic exercise reduced depressive symptoms in dose-response fashion (β = −0.24, p = 0.03), a pattern evident only in higher quality trials. Exercise reduced depressive symptoms most when exercise sessions were supervised (β = −0.26, p = 0.01) and when cancer survivors were between 47–62 yr (β = 0.27, p = 0.01).

Conclusion

Exercise training provides a small overall reduction in depressive symptoms among cancer survivors but one that increased in dose-response fashion with weekly volume of aerobic exercise in high quality trials. Depressive symptoms were reduced to the greatest degree among breast cancer survivors, among cancer survivors aged between 47–62 yr, or when exercise sessions were supervised.     

Cancer mortality risk among workers at the Mayak nuclear complex

At present, direct data on risk from protracted or fractionated radiation exposure at low dose rates have been limited largely to studies of populations exposed to low cumulative doses with resulting low statistical power. We evaluated the cancer risks associated with protracted exposure to external whole-body gamma radiation at high cumulative doses (the average dose is 0.8 Gy and the highest doses exceed 10 Gy) in Russian nuclear workers. Cancer deaths in a cohort of about 21,500 nuclear workers who began working at the Mayak complex between 1948 and 1972 were ascertained from death certificates and autopsy reports with follow-up through December 1997. Excess relative risk models were used to estimate solid cancer and leukemia risks associated with external gamma-radiation dose with adjustment for effects of plutonium exposures. Both solid cancer and leukemia death rates increased significantly with increasing gamma-ray dose (P < 0.001). Under a linear dose-response model, the excess relative risk for lung, liver and skeletal cancers as a group (668 deaths) adjusted for plutonium exposure is 0.30 per gray (P < 0.001) and 0.08 per gray (P < 0.001) for all other solid cancers (1062 deaths). The solid cancer dose-response functions appear to be nonlinear, with the excess risk estimates at doses of less than 3 Gy being about twice those predicted by the linear model. Plutonium exposure was associated with increased risks both for lung, liver and skeletal cancers (the sites of primary plutonium deposition) and for other solid cancers as a group. A significant dose response, with no indication of plutonium exposure effects, was found for leukemia. Excess risks for leukemia exhibited a significant dependence on the time since the dose was received. For doses received within 3 to 5 years of death the excess relative risk per gray was estimated to be about 7 (P < 0.001), but this risk was only 0.45 (P = 0.02) for doses received 5 to 45 years prior to death. External gamma-ray exposures significantly increased risks of both solid cancers and leukemia in this large cohort of men and women with occupational radiation exposures. Risks at doses of less than 1 Gy may be slightly lower than those seen for doses arising from acute exposures in the atomic bomb survivors. As dose estimates for the Mayak workers are improved, it should be possible to obtain more precise estimates of solid cancer and leukemia risks from protracted external radiation exposure in this cohort.     

Risk coefficient for gamma-rays with regard to solid cancer

A previous investigation has uncoupled the solid cancer risk coefficient for neutrons from the low dose estimates of the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of neutrons and the photon risk coefficient, and has related it to two more tangible quantities, the excess relative risk (ERR1) due to an intermediate reference dose D1 = 1 Gy of gamma-rays and the RBE of neutrons, R1, against this reference dose. With tentatively assumed RBE values between 20 and 50 and in terms of organ-averaged doses--rather than the usually invoked colon doses--the neutron risk factor was seen to be in general agreement with the current risk estimate of the International Commission on Radiation Protection (ICRP). The present assessment of the risk coefficient for gamma-rays incorporates--in terms of the unchanged A-bomb dosimetry system, DS86--this treatment of the neutrons, but is otherwise largely analogous to the evaluation of the A-bomb data for the ICRP report and for the recent report of the United Nations Scientific Committee on the effects of ionizing radiation, UNSCEAR. The resulting central estimate of the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) for solid cancer mortality is 0.043/Gy for a working population (ages 25-65), and is nearly the same whether the age at exposure or the attained age model is used for risk projection. For a population of all ages 0.042/Gy is obtained with the attained age model and 0.068/Gy with the age at exposure model. The values do not include a dose and dose rate effectiveness factor (DDREF), and they are only half as large as the new UNSCEAR estimates of 0.082/Gy (attained age model and all ages) and 0.13/Gy (age at exposure model and all ages). The difference is only partly due to the more explicit treatment of the neutrons. It reflects also the fact that UNSCEAR has converted ERR into LAR in a way that differs from the ICRP procedure, and that it has summed the overall risk coefficient for solid tumor mortality and incidence from separate estimates for eight solid tumor categories, whereas the present study employs a combined computation for all solid tumors and uses the ICRP procedure for the conversion of ERR into LAR. The appendix gives results for the solid cancer incidence data.     

Associations of ionizing radiation and breast cancer-related serum hormone and growth factor levels in cancer-free female A-bomb survivors

Levels of exposure to ionizing radiation are increasing for women worldwide due to the widespread use of CT and other radiologic diagnostic modalities. Exposure to ionizing radiation as well as increased levels of estradiol and other sex hormones are acknowledged breast cancer risk factors, but the effects of whole-body radiation on serum hormone levels in cancer-free women are unknown. This study examined whether ionizing radiation exposure is associated with levels of serum hormones and other markers that may mediate radiation-associated breast cancer risk. Serum samples were measured from cancer-free women who attended biennial health examinations with a wide range of past radiation exposure levels (N = 412, ages 26-79). The women were selected as controls for separate case-control studies from a cohort of A-bomb survivors. Outcome measures included serum levels of total estradiol, bioavailable estradiol, testosterone, progesterone, prolactin, insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF1), insulin-like growth factor-binding protein 3 (IGFBP-3), and ferritin. Relationships were assessed using repeated-measures regression models fitted with generalized estimating equations. Geometric mean serum levels of total estradiol and bioavailable estradiol increased with 1?Gy of radiation dose among samples collected from postmenopausal women (17%(1Gy), 95% CI: 1%-36% and 21%(1Gy), 95% CI: 4%-40%, respectively), while they decreased in samples collected from premenopausal women (-11%(1Gy), 95% CI: -20%-1% and -12%(1Gy), 95% CI: -20%- -2%, respectively). Interactions by menopausal status were significant (P = 0.003 and P < 0.001, respectively). Testosterone levels increased with radiation dose in postmenopausal samples (30.0%(1Gy), 95% CI: 13%-49%) while they marginally decreased in premenopausal samples (-10%(1Gy), 95% CI: -19%-0%) and the interaction by menopausal status was significant (P < 0.001). Serum levels of IGF1 increased linearly with radiation dose (11%(1Gy), 95% CI: 2%-18%) and there was a significant interaction by menopausal status (P = 0.014). Radiation-associated changes in serum levels of estradiol, bioavailable estradiol, testosterone and IGF1 were modified by menopausal status at the time of collection. No associations with radiation were observed in serum levels of progesterone, prolactin, IGFBP-3 or ferritin.