Malaria model with periodic mosquito birth and death rates

In this paper, we introduce a model of malaria, a disease that involves a complex life cycle of parasites, requiring both human and mosquito hosts. The novelty of the model is the introduction of periodic coefficients into the system of one-dimensional equations, which account for the seasonal variations (wet and dry seasons) in the mosquito birth and death rates. We define a basic reproduction number R(0) that depends on the periodic coefficients and prove that if R(0)<1 then the disease becomes extinct, whereas if R(0)>1 then the disease is endemic and may even be periodic.     

Persistence in periodic and almost periodic Lotka-Volterra systems

It is shown that a strongly self-regulating (or resource limited) Lotka-Volterra population system can persist in a periodic or almost periodic environment if and only if the system tracks the environmental variations.     

The meaning of birth and death (in macroevolutionary birth-death models)

Birth–death models are central to much macroevolutionary theory. The fundamental parameters of these models concern durations. Different species concepts realize different species durations because they represent different ideas of what birth (speciation) and death (extinction) mean. Here, we use Cenozoic macroperforate planktonic foraminifera as a case study to ask: what are the dynamical consequences of changing the definition of birth and death? We show strong evidence for biotic constraints on diversification using evolutionary species, but less with morphospecies. Discussing reasons for this discrepancy, we emphasize that clarity of species concept leads to clarity of meaning when interpreting macroevolutionary birth–death models.     

A stochastic discrete generation birth,continuous death population growth model and its approximate solution

This paper describes a single species growth model with a stochastic population size dependent number of births occurring at discrete generation times and a continuous population size dependent death rate. An integral equation for a suitable transformation of the limiting population size density function is not in general soluble, but a Gram-Charlier representation procedure, previously used in storage theory, is successfully extended to cover this problem. Examples of logistic and Gompertz type growth are used to illustrate the procedure, and to compare with growth models in random environments. Comments on the biological consequences of these models are also given.Currently at Department of Mathematics, University of MarylandWork partially supported by the Danish Natural Science Research Council and Monash University     

Almost periodic solution of non-autonomous Lotka-Volterra predator-prey dispersal system with delays

This paper studies a non-autonomous Lotka-Volterra almost periodic predator-prey dispersal system with discrete and continuous time delays which consists of n-patches, the prey species can disperse among n-patches, but the predator species is confined to one patch and cannot disperse. By using comparison theorem and delay differential equation basic theory, we prove the system is uniformly persistent under some appropriate conditions. Further, by constructing suitable Lyapunov functional, we show that the system is globally asymptotically stable under some appropriate conditions. By using almost periodic functional hull theory, we show that the almost periodic system has a unique globally asymptotical stable strictly positive almost periodic solution. The conditions for the permanence, global stability of system and the existence, uniqueness of positive almost periodic solution depend on delays, so, time delays are "profitless". Finally, conclusions and two particular cases are given. These results are basically an extension of the known results for non-autonomous Lotka-Volterra systems.     

Factors associated with birth rate and live birth rate in multi-male breeding groups of rhesus monkeys

Reproductive records of 284 female rhesus monkeys housed in six multimale corrals at the California Primate Research Center were examined for the birth seasons 1977–1982 to determine possible associations between the probability of birth or live birth and female age, parity, origin, parturition in the previous season, infant birth date, and infant birth date in previous season. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to identify and quantitate the effects of factors on the probability of birth or live birth, while controlling for the possibly confounding effects of other factors in the model. Females who had infants early in the previous season were 2.5 times as likely to give birth as those who had infants late in the previous season. Females with two or three previous births were 2.1 times as likely to give birth, and those with four or five previous births were 6.7 times as likely to give birth as were females with no or one previous birth. Controlling for other factors (age, parity, and timing of birth in the previous season), corralborn females were 3.3 times as likely to give birth as either wild-caught or domestic-born monkeys not native to the corrals. Domestic-born females who were not corral natives were 0.3 times as likely to have live births as wild-caught females. Births late in the season were 1.8 times as likely to result in live infants as births early in the season.     

Analysis of a time-delayed mathematical model for tumour growth with an almost periodic supply of external nutrients

In this paper, the existence, uniqueness and exponential stability of almost periodic solutions for a mathematical model of tumour growth are studied. The establishment of the model is based on the reaction–diffusion dynamics and mass conservation law and is considered with a delay in the cell proliferation process. Using a fixed-point theorem in cones, the existence and uniqueness of almost periodic solutions for different parameter values of the model is proved. Moreover, by the Gronwall inequality, sufficient conditions are established for the exponential stability of the unique almost periodic solution. Results are illustrated by computer simulations.     

Modelling of drug receptor interaction with birth and death processes

Stochastic modelling of drug receptor interaction at the neuromuscular junction with birth and death processes is presented. Systems with only one drug and two drugs interacting are investigated separately. The total number of receptors is assumed finite and only single receptor binding is considered. It has been possible to obtain exact analytical solutions to forward Kolmogorov equations yielding the transition probability densities and the associated probability generating functions.     

Persistence and permanence in a metapopulation model with space-limited recruitment

In this paper we analyze a metapopulation model with space-limited recruitment. The model describes the population dynamics of sessile adult and planktonic larvae in a common larval pool. We introduce the basic reproduction number of each species which is the expected number of future larvae reproduced by one larva. We consider the conditions for the persistence of the multi-species and multi-habitats model and the permanence of the single-species model. Subsequently, we consider the conditions for the existence of the non-trivial steady state of the single-species model and its global stability, and the permanence of the two species and two habitats model.     

Dynamical behavior of a hepatitis B virus transmission model with vaccination

Hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection is a globally health problem. In 2005, the WHO Western Pacific Regional Office set a goal of reducing chronic HBV infection rate to less than 2% among children five years of age by 2012, as an interim milestone towards the final goal of less than 1%. Many countries made some plans (such as free HBV vaccination program for all neonates in China now) to control the transmission HBV. We develop a model to explore the impact of vaccination and other controlling measures of HBV infection. The model has simple dynamical behavior which has a globally asymptotically stable disease-free equilibrium when the basic reproduction number R₀≤1, and a globally asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium when R₀>1. Numerical simulation results show that the vaccination is a very effective measure to control the infection and they also give some useful comments on controlling the transmission of HBV.     

An SIS patch model with variable transmission coefficients

In this paper, an SIS patch model with non-constant transmission coefficients is formulated to investigate the effect of media coverage and human movement on the spread of infectious diseases among patches. The basic reproduction number R₀ is determined. It is shown that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R₀?1, and the disease is uniformly persistent and there exists at least one endemic equilibrium if R₀>1. In particular, when the disease is non-fatal and the travel rates of susceptible and infectious individuals in each patch are the same, the endemic equilibrium is unique and is globally asymptotically stable as R₀>1. Numerical calculations are performed to illustrate some results for the case with two patches.     

具垂直传染和连续预防接种的SIRS传染病模型的研究

研究了具有垂直传染的两类连续预防接种传染病模型,分别给出了SIRS传染病模型基本再生数并利用广义Dulac函数方法和LaSalle不变原理证明了无病平衡点和正平衡点的全局稳定性.最后对两种结果进行了比较.     

具有反馈控制和功能性反应的两种群竞争系统的概周期解

研究了具有反馈控制和功能性反应的两种群竞争系统．通过构造适当的Lyapunov函数,得到了系统存在全局渐进稳定的概周期解的充分性条件。     

多种群阶段结构竞争系统的周期解与概周期解

研究具有阶段结构的多种群竞争系统,得到该系统一致持久,正周期解全局渐近稳定及概周期解的存在性与一致渐近稳定性的充分条件。     

Impulsive SUI epidemic model for HIV/AIDS with chronological age and infection age

This paper develops an impulsive SUI model of human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS) epidemic for the first time to study the dynamic behavior of this model. The SUI model is described by impulsive partial differential equations. First, the well-posedness of the model is attained by the method of characteristic lines and iterative method. Secondly, the basic reproduction number R₀(q,T) of the epidemic which depends on the impulsive HIV-finding period T and the HIV-finding proportion q is obtained by mathematical analysis. Our result shows that HIV/AIDS epidemic can be theoretically eradicated if we can have the suitable HIV-finding proportion q and the impulsive HIV-finding period T such that R₀(q,T)<1. We also conjecture that the infection-free periodic solution of the SUI model is unstable when R₀(q,T)>1.     

Dynamic phenomena arising from an extended Core Group model

In order to obtain a reasonably accurate model for the spread of a particular infectious disease through a population, it may be necessary for this model to possess some degree of structural complexity. Many such models have, in recent years, been found to exhibit a phenomenon known as backward bifurcation, which generally implies the existence of two subcritical endemic equilibria. It is often possible to refine these models yet further, and we investigate here the influence such a refinement may have on the dynamic behaviour of a system in the region of the parameter space near R₀=1.We consider a natural extension to a so-called Core Group model for the spread of a sexually transmitted disease, arguing that this may in fact give rise to a more realistic model. From the deterministic viewpoint we study the possible shapes of the resulting bifurcation diagrams and the associated stability patterns. Stochastic versions of both the original and the extended models are also developed so that the probability of extinction and time to extinction may be examined, allowing us to gain further insights into the complex system dynamics near R₀=1. A number of interesting phenomena are observed, for which heuristic explanations are provided.     

A model for influenza with vaccination and antiviral treatment

Compartmental models for influenza that include control by vaccination and antiviral treatment are formulated. Analytic expressions for the basic reproduction number, control reproduction number and the final size of the epidemic are derived for this general class of disease transmission models. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of the dependence of the control reproduction number on the parameters of the model give a comparison of the various intervention strategies. Numerical computations of the deterministic models are compared with those of recent stochastic simulation influenza models. Predictions of the deterministic compartmental models are in general agreement with those of the stochastic simulation models.