Turnover of passerine birds on islands in the Aegean Sea (Greece)

Aim We wish to determine the effect of migratory status on turnover rates in island birds. Because turnover is influenced by factors other than migratory status, we also considered the influence of body size and physical characteristics of the islands inhabited on the probabilities of extinction and immigration. Location The Mediterranean islands of Delos, Astypalea, Paros, Naxos and Lesvos in the Aegean Sea, Greece. Methods The passerine birds of these islands were surveyed between 1954 and 1961 by G.E. Watson, and were resurveyed between 1988 and 1992. The effects of migratory status and body size on the probabilities of extinction and immigration were examined by G‐tests of linear trend in proportion, and analysis of variance, respectively. A combined analysis of migratory status, body size and physical characteristics of the islands was carried out using logistic regressions of the probabilities of extinction and immigration on these factors. Results Species number on each island changed little between surveys, with no island's species number changing by more than one species. Twelve population extinctions and 11 immigrations were recorded. The smallest island, Delos (6 km²), had the highest annualized relative turnover rate (1.08), while the four larger islands (96–1614 km²) had lower and mutually similar rates (0.21–0.27). Populations on higher elevation islands were less likely to go extinct. There is no evidence for an effect of body size on the probabilities of extinction or immigration. Migratory status affected extinction and immigration probabilities differently: migratory species were more likely to immigrate, but less likely to go extinct. Main conclusions The position of the Aegean islands along a major north–south flyway may account for the observed effects of migratory status. The annual passage of large numbers of migrants may, via the rescue effect, decrease the chances of extinction, while at the same time increasing the chances of colonization of unoccupied islands. The likelihood of both extinction and immigration involves a complex interaction between life‐history traits and island characteristics. The effects of migratory status will depend not only on consideration of vagility, vulnerability and stochasticity identified by previous authors, but also upon the location of the islands in relationship to migratory pathways.     

Demography in relation to population density in two herbivorous marsupials: testing for source–sink dynamics versus independent regulation of population size

We compared demography of populations along gradients of population density in two medium-sized herbivorous marsupials, the common brushtail possum Trichosurus vulpecula and the rufous bettong Aepyprymnus rufescens, to test for net dispersal from high density populations (acting as sources) to low density populations (sinks). In both species, population density was positively related to soil fertility, and variation in soil fertility produced large differences in population density of contiguous populations. We predicted that if source–sink dynamics were operating over this density gradient, we should find higher immigration rates in low-density populations, and positive relationships of measures of individual fitness—body condition, reproductive output, juvenile growth rates and survivorship—to population density. This was predicted because under source–sink dynamics, immigration from high-density sites would hold population density above carrying capacity in low-density sites. The study included 13 populations of these two species, representing a more than 50-fold range of density for each species, but we found that individual fitness, immigration rates and population turnover were similar in all populations. We conclude that net dispersal from high to low density populations had little influence on population dynamics in these species; rather, all populations appeared to be independently regulated at carrying capacity, with a balanced exchange of dispersers among populations. These two species have suffered recent reductions in range, and they are ecologically similar to other species that have declined to extinction in inland Australia. It has been argued that part of the cause of the vulnerability of species like these is that they exhibit source–sink dynamics, and disturbance to source habitats can therefore cause large-scale population collapses. The results of our study argue against this interpretation.     

Invasion impacts local species turnover in a successional system

Exotic plant invasions are often associated with declines in diversity within invaded communities. However, few studies have examined the local community dynamics underlying these impacts. Changes in species richness associated with plant invasions must occur through local changes in extinction and/or colonization rates within the community. We used long‐term, permanent plot data to evaluate the impacts of the exotic vine Lonicera japonica. Over time, species richness declined with increasing L. japonica cover. L. japonica reduced local colonization rates but had no effect on extinction rates. Furthermore, we detected significant reductions in the immigration of individual species as invasion severity increased, showing that some species are more susceptible to invasion than others. These findings suggest that declines in species richness associated with L. japonica invasion resulted from effects on local colonization rates only and not through the competitive displacement of established species.     

Structured models of metapopulation dynamics

I develop models of metapopulation dynamics that describe changes in the numbers of individuals within patches. These models are analogous to structured population models, with patches playing the role of individuals. Single species models which do not include the effect of immigration on local population dynamics of occupied patches typically lead to a unique equilibrium. The models can be used to study the distributions of numbers of individuals among patches, showing that both metapopulations with local outbreaks and metapopulations without outbreaks can occur in systems with no underlying environmental variability. Distributions of local population sizes (in occupied patches) can vary independently of the total population size, so both patterns of distributions of local population sizes are compatible with either rare or common species. Models which include the effect of immigration on local population dynamics can lead to two positive equilibria, one stable and one unstable, the latter representing a threshold between regional extinction and persistence.     

Immigration rates in fragmented landscapes--empirical evidence for the importance of habitat amount for species persistence

Background

The total amount of native vegetation is an important property of fragmented landscapes and is known to exert a strong influence on population and metapopulation dynamics. As the relationship between habitat loss and local patch and gap characteristics is strongly non-linear, theoretical models predict that immigration rates should decrease dramatically at low levels of remaining native vegetation cover, leading to patch-area effects and the existence of species extinction thresholds across fragmented landscapes with different proportions of remaining native vegetation. Although empirical patterns of species distribution and richness give support to these models, direct measurements of immigration rates across fragmented landscapes are still lacking.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using the Brazilian Atlantic forest marsupial Gray Slender Mouse Opossum (Marmosops incanus) as a model species and estimating demographic parameters of populations in patches situated in three landscapes differing in the total amount of remaining forest, we tested the hypotheses that patch-area effects on population density are apparent only at intermediate levels of forest cover, and that immigration rates into forest patches are defined primarily by landscape context surrounding patches. As expected, we observed a positive patch-area effect on M. incanus density only within the landscape with intermediate forest cover. Density was independent of patch size in the most forested landscape and the species was absent from the most deforested landscape. Specifically, the mean estimated numbers of immigrants into small patches were lower in the landscape with intermediate forest cover compared to the most forested landscape.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results reveal the crucial importance of the total amount of remaining native vegetation for species persistence in fragmented landscapes, and specifically as to the role of variable immigration rates in providing the underlying mechanism that drives both patch-area effects and species extinction thresholds.     

Relative importance of landscape and species characteristics on extinction debt,immigration credit and relaxation time after habitat turnover

Habitat turnover concomitantly causes destruction and creation of habitat patches. Following such a perturbation, metapopulations harbor either an extinction debt or an immigration credit, that is the future decrease or increase in population numbers due to this disturbance. Extinction debt and immigration credit are rarely considered simultaneously and disentangled from the relaxation time (time to new equilibrium). In this contribution, we test the relative importance of two potential drivers of time-delayed metapopulation dynamics: the spatial configuration of the habitat turnover and species dispersal ability. We provide a simulation-based investigation projecting metapopulation dynamics following habitat turnover in virtual landscapes. We consider two virtual species (a short-distance and a long-distance disperser) and five scenarios of habitat turnover depending on net habitat loss or gain and habitat aggregation. Our analyses reveal that (a) the main determinant of the magnitude of the extinction debt or immigration credit is the net change in total habitat area, followed by species dispersal distance and finally by the post-turnover habitat aggregation; (b) relaxation time weakly depends on the magnitude of the immigration credit or of the extinction debt; (c) the main determinant of relaxation time is dispersal distance followed by the net change in total habitat area and finally by the post-turnover habitat aggregation. These results shed light on the relative importance of dispersal ability and habitat turnover spatial structure on the components of time-delayed metapopulation dynamics.     

Testing for MacArthur-Wilson Equilibrium with the Arthropods of the Miniature Spartina Archipelago at Oyster Bay, Florida

SYNOPSIS. The unique features of the MacArthur-Wilson modelof equilibrium biogeography are the immigration and extinctioncurves. In the model, the immigration rate for each island isnegatively correlated with species number, and island extinctionrate is positively correlated with species number. Direct tests of the sign and statistical significance of immigrationand extinction curves were done, with data on arthropods oftiny Spartina alterniflora islets, in north Florida. Rey (1981)defaunated six islets in the spring, then censused the recolonizationweekly, for one year. Two control islets and a mainland plotwere also censused. Distinct tendencies in favor of MacArthur-Wilsoncorrelations were present for both immigration and extinction.But sufficient extraneous variation occurs in immigration andextinction rates to make correspondence to MacArthur-Wilsoncurves statistically non-significant, unless probabilities arecombined among islands. Thus, mathematical deductions from theMacArthur-Wilson model, which treat the curves as deterministiclines with no variance, are less appropriate than approachesthat incorporate stochastic variation. The study of community patterns, by models such as the MacArthur-Wilsonmodel, are not a substitute for careful autecological studies.Mechanisms of colonization and co-existence are only dimly hintedat by gross community patterns.     

Spatial variation in branch size promotes metapopulation persistence in dendritic river networks

1. Despite years of attention, the dynamics of species constrained to disperse within riverine networks are not well captured by existing metapopulation models, which often ignore local dynamics within branches.
2. We develop a modelling framework, based on traditional metapopulation theory, for patch occupancy dynamics subject to local colonisation–extinction dynamics within branches and regional dispersal between branches in size-structured, bifurcating riverine networks. Using this framework, we investigate whether and how spatial variation in branch size affects species persistence for dendritic systems with directional dispersal, including one-way (up- or downstream only) and two-way (both up- and downstream) dispersal.
3. Variation in branch size generally promotes species persistence more obviously at higher relative extinction rate, suggesting that previous studies ignoring differences in branch size in real riverine systems might overestimate species extinction risk.
4. Two-way dispersal is not always superior to one-way dispersal as a strategy for metapopulation persistence especially at high relative extinction rate. The type of dispersal that maximises species persistence is determined by the hierarchical level of the largest, and hence most influential, branch within the network. When considering the interactive effects of up- and downstream dispersal, we find that moderate upstream-biased dispersal maximises metapopulation viability, mediated by spatial branch arrangement.
5. Overall, these results suggest that both branch-size variation and species traits interact to determine species persistence, theoretically demonstrating the ecological significance of their interplay.

     

Species abundance distribution and dynamics in two locally coupled communities

This study considered a model for species abundance dynamics in two local community (or islands) connected to a regional metacommunity. The model was analyzed using continuous probabilistic technique that employs Kolmogorov-Fokker-Planck forward equation to derive the probability density of the species abundance in the two local communities. Using this technique, we proposed a classification for the species abundance dynamics in the local communities. This classification was made based on such characteristics as immigration intensity, species representation in the metacommunity and the size of local communities. We further distinguished several different scenarios for species abundance dynamics using different ecological characteristics such as species persistence, extinction and monodominance in one or both local communities. The similarity of the species abundance distributions between the two local communities was studied using the correlation coefficient between species abundances in two local communities. The correlation is a function of migration rates between local communities and between local and metacommunity. Immigration between local communities drives the homogenization of the local communities, while immigration from the metacommunity will differentiate them. This community subdivision model provides useful insights for studying the effect of landscape fragmentation on species diversity.     

Fish species richness in spring‐fed ponds: effects of habitat size versus isolation in temporally variable environments

1. Species richness in a habitat patch is determined by immigration (regional) and extinction (local) processes, and understanding their relative importance is crucial for conservation of biodiversity. In this study, we applied the Island Biogeography concept to spring ponds connected to a river in southwestern Japan to examine how immigration and extinction processes interact to determine fish species richness in temporally variable environments. 2. Fish censuses were conducted 15 times in 13 study ponds at 1–4 month intervals from August 1998 through October 2000. Effects of habitat size (pond area), isolation (distance from the river) and temporal environmental variability (water level fluctuation) on (i) species richness, (ii) immigration and extinction rates and (iii) population size and persistence of each fish species were assessed. 3. The results revealed predominant effects of distance on species richness, immigration/extinction rates and population size and persistence. Species richness decreased with increasing distance but was not related to either pond area or water level fluctuation. A negative effect of distance on immigration rate was detected, while neither pond area nor water level fluctuation had significant effects on extinction rate. Further, population size and persistence of four species increased with decreasing distance, suggesting that, in ponds close to the river, immigrants from the river reduce the probability of extinction (i.e. provide a rescue effect), contributing to the maintenance of high species richness. 4. Overall results emphasise the importance of immigration processes, rather than extinction, in shaping patterns of species richness in our system. The predominant importance of immigration was probably because of (i) high temporal variability that negates habitat‐size effects and (ii) continuous immigration that easily compensates for local extinctions. Our results suggest that consideration of regional factors (e.g. connectivity, locations of source populations and barriers to colonisation) is crucial for conservation and restoration of local habitats.     

How fast is the carousel? Direct indices of species mobility with examples from an Oklahoma grassland

Abstract. Current interest in small‐scale species dynamics has led to a proliferation of mobility indices. We advocate the use of direct measures of mobility such as immigration rate, extinction rate, residence time, and carousel time. We also demonstrate that the null expectation of cumulative frequency under different null models can be calculated explicitly. Species can depart from the commonly‐used ‘random reassignment’ model simply because of longevity, and not mobility per se. We therefore prefer a random immigration null model, which assumes that immigration locations are randomized. We examined mobility patterns of selected plant species, studied in 256 quadrats of each of four grains (ranging from 1/64 m² to 1 m²) in an Oklahoma grassland. Residence times and carousel times can be centuries or even millennia for some species. We explore the numerical and biological reasons for relationships between mobility statistics. Mobility statistics are fairly consistent among grains and years, although the residence times of species exhibit some subtle scale dependence. Species depart from a random immigration model very slightly – but the departure is consistent: species tend to re‐occupy previously vacated space more often than expected due to chance. We believe that the use of direct indices will facilitate the study of how species characteristics influence mobility.     

Extinction,turnover and species diversity in an experimentally fragmented California annual grassland

Summary Many natural populations are subdivided among partially isolated habitat patches, but the influence of habitat patchiness per se on species immigration, extinction, and the resulting patterns of species diversity, has received virtually no experimental study. In an experiment designed to test the effects of habitat subdivision on local community structure, we compare the diversity and annual turnover of flowering plant species in 3 treatments of the same total area, but subdivided to different degrees. We experimentally fragmented a California winter annual grassland into isolated plots, two of 32 m², eight of 8 m², and 32 of 2 m², each treatment representing a combined area of 64 m². Insularization of the experimental habitat fragments is provided by grazing sheep. The effects of plot area on species diversity, extinction, and turnover are consistent with the MacArthur-Wilson model. Species richness increases with the degree of habitat subdivision. Extinction, immigration, and turnover, however, are relatively independent of the degree of subdivision. These experimental results contrast with predictions that habitat subdivision necessarily results in greater rates of extinction accompanied by reduced species diversity.     

Temporal lags in observed and dark diversity in the Anthropocene

Understanding biodiversity changes in the Anthropocene (e.g. due to climate and land‐use change) is an urgent ecological issue. This important task is challenging because global change effects and species responses are dependent on the spatial scales considered. Furthermore, responses are often not immediate. However, both scale and time delay issues can be tackled when, at each study site, we consider dynamics in both observed and dark diversity. Dark diversity includes those species in the region that can potentially establish and thrive in the local sites’ conditions but are currently locally absent. Effectively, dark diversity connects biodiversity at the study site to the regional scales and defines the site‐specific species pool (observed and dark diversity together). With dark diversity, it is possible to decompose species gains and losses into two space‐related components: one associated with local dynamics (species moving from observed to dark diversity and vice versa) and another related to gains and losses of site‐specific species pool (species moving to and from the pool after regional immigration, regional extinction or change in local ecological conditions). Extinction debt and immigration credit are useful to understand dynamics in observed diversity, but delays might happen in species pool changes as well. In this opinion piece we suggest that considering both observed and dark diversity and their temporal dynamics provides a deeper understanding of biodiversity changes. Considering both observed and dark diversity creates opportunities to improve conservation by allowing to identify species that are likely to go regionally extinct as well as foreseeing which of the species that newly arrive to the region are more likely to colonize local sites. Finally, by considering temporal lags and species gains and losses in observed and dark diversity, we combine phenomena at both spatial and temporal scales, providing a novel tool to examine biodiversity change in the Anthropocene.     

Effects of experimental population extinction for the spatial population dynamics of the butterfly Parnassius smintheus

While many studies have examined factors potentially impacting the rate of local population extinction, few experimental studies have examined the consequences of extinction for spatial population dynamics. Here we report results from a large‐scale, long‐term experiment examining the effects of local population extinction for the dynamics of surrounding populations. From 2001–2008 we removed all adult butterflies from two large, neighboring populations within a system of 17 subpopulations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus. Surrounding populations were monitored using individual, mark–recapture methods. We found that population removal decreased immigration to surrounding populations in proportion to their connectivity to the removed populations. Correspondingly, within‐generation population abundance declined. Despite these effects, we saw little consistent impact between generations. The extinction rates of surrounding populations were unaffected and local population growth was not consistently reduced by the lack of immigration. The broader results show that immigration affects local abundance within generations, but dynamics are mediated by density‐dependence within populations and by broader density‐independent factors acting between generations. The loss of immigrants resulting from extinction has little impact on the persistence of local populations in this system.     

Effects of habitat size and isolation on species immigration–extinction dynamics and community nestedness in a desert river system

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Single-species metapopulation dynamics: concepts, models and observations

This paper outlines a conceptual and theoretical framework for single-species metapopulation dynamics based on the Levins model and its variants. The significance of the following factors to metapopulation dynamics are explored: evolutionary changes in colonization ability; habitat patch size and isolation; compensatory effects between colonization and extinction rates; the effect of immigration on local dynamics (the rescue effect); and heterogeneity among habitat patches. The rescue effect may lead to alternative stable equilibria in metapopulation dynamics. Heterogeneity among habitat patches may give rise to a bimodal equilibrium distribution of the fraction of patches occupied in an assemblage of species (the core-satellite distribution). A new model of incidence functions is described, which allows one to estimate species' colonization and extinction rates on islands colonized from mainland. Four distinct kinds of stochasticity affecting metapopulation dynamics are discussed with examples. The concluding section describes four possible scenarios of metapopulation extinction.     

Ecological correlates of local extinction and colonisation in the British ladybird beetles (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)

Five main drivers of population declines have been identified: climate change, habitat degradation, invasive alien species (IAS), overexploitation and pollution. Each of these drivers interacts with the others, and also with the intrinsic traits of individual species, to determine species’ distribution and range dynamics. We explored the relative importance of life-history and resource-use traits, climate, habitat, and the IAS Harmonia axyridis in driving local extinction and colonisation dynamics across 25 ladybird species (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae).Species were classified as continually present, continually absent, extinct, or colonising in each of 4,642 1-km² grid squares. The spatial distribution of local extinction and colonisation events (in the grid squares) across all species’ ranges were related to ecological traits, overlap with H. axyridis, climate, and habitat factors within generalised linear models (GLMs). GLMs were also used to relate species’ traits, range characteristics, and niche overlap with H. axyridis to extinction and colonisation rates summarised at the species level. Bayesian model averaging was used to account for model uncertainty, and produce reduced sets of models which were well-supported by data. Species with a high degree of niche overlap with H. axyridis suffered higher extinction rates in both analyses, while at the spatial scale extinctions were more likely and colonisations less likely in areas with a high proportion of urban land cover. In the spatial analysis, polymorphic species with large range sizes were more likely to colonise and less likely to go extinct, and sunny grid squares were more likely to be colonised. Large, multivoltine species and rainy grid squares were less likely to colonise or be colonised. In conclusion for ladybirds, extinction and colonisation dynamics are influenced by several factors. The only factor that both increased the local extinction likelihood and reduced colonisation likelihood was urban land cover, while ecological overlap with H. axyridis greatly increased extinction rates. Continued spread of H. axyridis is likely to adversely affect native species and urban areas may be particularly vulnerable.     

Predicting small‐mammal responses to climatic warming: autecology,geographic range,and the Holocene fossil record

Forecasting how species will respond to climatic change requires knowledge of past community dynamics. Here we use time‐series data from the small‐mammal fossil records of two caves in the Great Basin of the American West to evaluate how contrasting and variable local paleoclimates have shaped small‐mammal abundance dynamics over the last ～7500 years of climatic change. We then predict how species and communities will respond to future scenarios of increased warming and aridity coupled with continued spread of an invasive annual grass (Bromus tectorum). We find that most community‐level responses to climatic change occur in the mammalian abundance structure at both sites; the dominance of the community by individuals from species with a southern geographic affinity increases with climatic warming. This suggests that responses occurred in situ rather than by the immigration of new taxa over this time interval. Despite predictability at the community‐scale, species‐level relationships between abundance and climate are variable and are not necessarily explained by a species' geographic affinity. Species present at both sites, however, exhibit remarkably similar responses to climate at each site, indicating that species autecology (specifically dietary functional group) is important in determining response to climatic warming. Regression‐tree analyses show remarkable concordance between the two cave faunas and highlight the importance of a granivorous dietary strategy in this desert ecosystem. Under projections of increased temperature and decreased precipitation over the next 50 years, our results indicate that granivores should thrive as communities become more dominated by individuals with a southern geographic affinity. Granivores, however, are negatively impacted by the invasion of cheatgrass. The last century of anthropogenic impacts has thus placed granivores at a greater risk of extinction than predicted under climate‐only scenarios.     

Lost and found: Short-term dynamics of the flora on 100 small islands in the White Sea

The aim was to uncover factors that influence short-term (decade) flora dynamics and species richness of northern marine islets characterized by poor flora and weak anthropogenic pressure. The study used presence–absence data of vascular plant species on 100 small uprising islets of the Kandalaksha Gulf of White Sea (Northern Karelia, Russia). We investigated the influence of islands' attributes on species richness and rates of flora dynamics. Two island types were analyzed separately: younger, stone-like and older, islet-like (which generally are larger and have higher diversity of habitats). Sampled islands were studied via classical biogeographical per island approach and metapopulation per species approach. Stone-like islands had noticeably poorer flora with higher rates of immigration and extinction when compared to those of islet-like islands. The species number for islet-like islands correlated positively with number of habitats, abundance of different habitat types and island area. Species richness of stone-like islands correlated positively only with number of habitat types. Plant species associated with birds, crowberry thickets and coastal rocks were the most stable, and the species of disturbed habitats were significantly less stable. Floristic changes that have occurred have been caused by the massive establishment of new species rather than the extinction of pre-existing taxa. Thus, most of these islands are still in the colonization (assortative) stage. While we found no relationship between island area and species number for stone-like islands, this relationship was seen on islet-like islands.     

Scaling the extinction vortex: Body size as a predictor of population dynamics close to extinction events

1. Mutual reinforcement between abiotic and biotic factors can drive small populations into a catastrophic downward spiral to extinction—a process known as the “extinction vortex.” However, empirical studies investigating extinction dynamics in relation to species'' traits have been lacking.
2. We assembled a database of 35 vertebrate populations monitored to extirpation over a period of at least ten years, represented by 32 different species, including 25 birds, five mammals, and two reptiles. We supplemented these population time series with species‐specific mean adult body size to investigate whether this key intrinsic trait affects the dynamics of populations declining toward extinction.
3. We performed three analyses to quantify the effects of adult body size on three characteristics of population dynamics: time to extinction, population growth rate, and residual variability in population growth rate.
4. Our results provide support for the existence of extinction vortex dynamics in extirpated populations. We show that populations typically decline nonlinearly to extinction, while both the rate of population decline and variability in population growth rate increase as extinction is approached. Our results also suggest that smaller‐bodied species are particularly prone to the extinction vortex, with larger increases in rates of population decline and population growth rate variability when compared to larger‐bodied species.
5. Our results reaffirm and extend our understanding of extinction dynamics in real‐life extirpated populations. In particular, we suggest that smaller‐bodied species may be at greater risk of rapid collapse to extinction than larger‐bodied species, and thus, management of smaller‐bodied species should focus on maintaining higher population abundances as a priority.