On the number of New World founders: a population genetic portrait of the peopling of the Americas

The founding of New World populations by Asian peoples is the focus of considerable archaeological and genetic research, and there persist important questions on when and how these events occurred. Genetic data offer great potential for the study of human population history, but there are significant challenges in discerning distinct demographic processes. A new method for the study of diverging populations was applied to questions on the founding and history of Amerind-speaking Native American populations. The model permits estimation of founding population sizes, changes in population size, time of population formation, and gene flow. Analyses of data from nine loci are consistent with the general portrait that has emerged from archaeological and other kinds of evidence. The estimated effective size of the founding population for the New World is fewer than 80 individuals, approximately 1% of the effective size of the estimated ancestral Asian population. By adding a splitting parameter to population divergence models it becomes possible to develop detailed portraits of human demographic history. Analyses of Asian and New World data support a model of a recent founding of the New World by a population of quite small effective size.     

Mathematical consequences of the genealogical species concept

A genealogical species is defined as a basal group of organisms whose members are all more closely related to each other than they are to any organisms outside the group ("exclusivity"), and which contains no exclusive group within it. In practice, a pair of species is so defined when phylogenies of alleles from a sample of loci shows them to be reciprocally monophyletic at all or some specified fraction of the loci. We investigate the length of time it takes to attain this status when an ancestral population divides into two descendant populations of equal size with no gene exchange, and when genetic drift and mutation are the only evolutionary forces operating. The number of loci used has a substantial effect on the probability of observing reciprocal monophyly at different times after population separation, with very long times needed to observe complete reciprocal monophyly for a large number of loci. In contrast, the number of alleles sampled per locus has a relatively small effect on the probability of reciprocal monophyly. Because a single mitochondrial or chloroplast locus becomes reciprocally monophyletic much faster than does a single nuclear locus, it is not advisable to use mitochondrial and chloroplast DNA to recognize genealogical species for long periods after population divergence. Using a weaker criterion of assigning genealogical species status when more than 50% of sampled nuclear loci show reciprocal monophyly, genealogical species status depends much less on the number of sampled loci, and is attained at roughly 4-7 N generations after populations are isolated, where N is the historically effective population size of each descendant. If genealogical species status is defined as more than 95% of sampled nuclear loci showing reciprocal monophyly, this status is attained after roughly 9-12 N generations.     

Recent colonization by a coastal plant of inland habitats at an ancient freshwater lake,Lake Biwa: multilocus sequencing and a demographic history of Lathyrus japonicus (Fabaceae)

Ancient lakes have been recognized as “long‐term isolated islands” in terrestrial ecosystems. Lake Biwa, one of the few ancient lakes that formed around 4 million years ago, harbors many coastal species that commonly inhabit seashores. The beach pea, Lathyrus japonicus, is a typical coastal species of this freshwater lake, where morphological, physiological, and genetic differentiations have been reported between Biwa and coastal populations. Whether Biwa populations were isolated for long periods throughout Pleistocene climatic oscillations and subsequent range shifts is unclear. We assessed population genetic structure and demography of beach pea in this ancient freshwater lake using the sequences of eight nuclear loci. The results of STRUCTURE analyses showed evidence of admixture between Biwa and coastal populations, reflecting recent gene flow. The estimated demographic parameters implemented by the isolation with migration model (IM model) revealed a recent divergence (postglacial period) of Biwa populations, with some gene flow from Biwa to coastal populations. In addition, Biwa populations were significantly smaller in size than the ancestral or coastal populations. Our study suggests that a Holocene thermal maximum, when transgression could allow seeds from coastal plants to access Lake Biwa, was involved in the origin of the Biwa populations and their genetic divergence. Thus, coastal populations might have migrated to Lake Biwa relatively recently. Our study concluded that ancestral migrants in Lake Biwa were derived from small founding populations and accelerated genetic isolation of Biwa populations during short‐term isolation.     

Perspective: gene divergence, population divergence, and the variance in coalescence time in phylogeographic studies

Molecular methods as applied to the biogeography of single species (phylogeography) or multiple codistributed species (comparative phylogeography) have been productively and extensively used to elucidate common historical features in the diversification of the Earth's biota. However, only recently have methods for estimating population divergence times or their confidence limits while taking into account the critical effects of genetic polymorphism in ancestral species become available, and earlier methods for doing so are underutilized. We review models that address the crucial distinction between the gene divergence, the parameter that is typically recovered in molecular phylogeographic studies, and the population divergence, which is in most cases the parameter of interest and will almost always postdate the gene divergence. Assuming that population sizes of ancestral species are distributed similarly to those of extant species, we show that phylogeographic studies in vertebrates suggest that divergence of alleles in ancestral species can comprise from less than 10% to over 50% of the total divergence between sister species, suggesting that the problem of ancestral polymorphism in dating population divergence can be substantial. The variance in the number of substitutions (among loci for a given species or among species for a given gene) resulting from the stochastic nature of DNA change is generally smaller than the variance due to substitutions along allelic lines whose coalescence times vary due to genetic drift in the ancestral population. Whereas the former variance can be reduced by further DNA sequencing at a single locus, the latter cannot. Contrary to phylogeographic intuition, dating population divergence times when allelic lines have achieved reciprocal monophyly is in some ways more challenging than when allelic lines have not achieved monophyly, because in the former case critical data on ancestral population size provided by residual ancestral polymorphism is lost. In the former case differences in coalescence time between species pairs can in principle be explained entirely by differences in ancestral population size without resorting to explanations involving differences in divergence time. Furthermore, the confidence limits on population divergence times are severely underestimated when those for number of substitutions per site in the DNA sequences examined are used as a proxy. This uncertainty highlights the importance of multilocus data in estimating population divergence times; multilocus data can in principle distinguish differences in coalescence time (T) resulting from differences in population divergence time and differences in T due to differences in ancestral population sizes and will reduce the confidence limits on the estimates. We analyze the contribution of ancestral population size (theta) to T and the effect of uncertainty in theta on estimates of population divergence (tau) for single loci under reciprocal monophyly using a simple Bayesian extension of Takahata and Satta's and Yang's recent coalescent methods. The confidence limits on tau decrease when the range over which ancestral population size theta is assumed to be distributed decreases and when tau increases; they generally exclude zero when tau/(4Ne) > 1. We also apply a maximum-likelihood method to several single and multilocus data sets. With multilocus data, the criterion for excluding tau = 0 is roughly that l tau/(4Ne) > 1, where l is the number of loci. Our analyses corroborate recent suggestions that increasing the number of loci is critical to decreasing the uncertainty in estimates of population divergence time.     

A test of founder effect speciation using multiple loci in the auklets (Aethia spp.)

Whether speciation results more frequently from the genetic consequences of founder events or from gradual genetic divergence of large populations is a matter of debate. In this study, multiple analyses were applied to data from three loci (cytochrome b, alpha-enolase intron VIII, and MHC class II B) to test for founder effects associated with speciation in Aethia (Aves: Alcidae), a genus of seabirds thought to have undergone a rapid founder-induced radiation. Effective population sizes (N(e)) were derived from estimators of based on allelic diversity and the coalescent and from data on trans-species polymorphism. Results indicated that N(e) has been on the order of 10(5)-10(6) individuals throughout the evolutionary histories of least and crested auklets (A. pusilla and A. cristatella, respectively) and that N(e) of the ancestral species was at least 16,000 individuals. Computer simulations of MHC evolution indicated that a single-generation bottleneck at speciation could not have involved <85 individuals for each species. More moderate simulation scenarios indicated that population size could not have dropped below 2000 individuals at the time of species founding. Demographic history appears to have been stable for the auklets throughout the past several million years, and a founder effect associated with their speciation is unlikely.     

Genetic diversity and linkage disequilibrium in the Polynesian population of Niue Island

Isolated populations that recently have been derived from small homogeneous groups of founders should have low genetic diversity and high levels of linkage disequilibrium and should be ideal for mapping ancestral polymorphisms that influence complex genetic disease susceptibility. Populations that fulfill these criteria have been difficult to identify. We have been looking for Polynesian populations with these characteristics, because Polynesians have high rates of complex genetic diseases. In Niue Islanders all ancestral female (mitochondrial HSVI sequence) and 90.4% of ancestral male (Y-chromosome haplogroup) lineages are of Southeast Asian origin. The frequency of European Y-chromosome haplogroups is 7.2%. The diversities of mitochondrial HSV1 sequences (h = 0.18 +/- 0.05) and Y-chromosome haplo-groups (h = 0.18 +/- 0.05) are lower than values published for any other population. Ten autosomal microsatellites spaced over 5.8 cM show low allele numbers in Niue Islanders relative to Europeans (55 vs. 88 total alleles, respectively) and a modest reduction in heterozygous loci (0.71 +/- 0.02 vs. 0.78 +/- 0.02, p = 0.04). The higher linkage disequilibrium (d2) between these loci in Niue Islanders relative to Europeans (p = 0.001) is negatively correlated (r = -0.47, p = 0.01) with genetic distance. In summary, Niue Islanders are genetically isolated and have a homogeneous Southeast Asian ancestry. They have reduced autosomal genetic diversity and high levels of linkage disequilibrium that are consistent with the influence of genetic drift mechanisms, such as a founder effect or bottlenecks. High-powered linkage disequilibrium studies designed to map ancestral polymorphisms that influence complex genetic disease susceptibility may be feasible in this population.     

Isolation‐driven divergence: speciation in a widespread North American songbird (Aves: Certhiidae)

Lineage, or true ‘species’, trees may differ from gene trees because of stochastic processes in molecular evolution leading to gene‐tree heterogeneity. Problems with inferring species trees because of excessive incomplete lineage sorting may be exacerbated in lineages with rapid diversification or recent divergences necessitating the use of multiple loci and individuals. Many recent multilocus studies that investigate divergence times identify lineage splitting to be more recent than single‐locus studies, forcing the revision of biogeographic scenarios driving divergence. Here, we use 21 nuclear loci from regional populations to re‐evaluate hypotheses identified in an mtDNA phylogeographic study of the Brown Creeper (Certhia americana), as well as identify processes driving divergence. Nuclear phylogeographic analyses identified hierarchical genetic structure, supporting a basal split at approximately 32°N latitude, splitting northern and southern populations, with mixed patterns of genealogical concordance and discordance between data sets within the major lineages. Coalescent‐based analyses identify isolation, with little to no gene flow, as the primary driver of divergence between lineages. Recent isolation appears to have caused genetic bottlenecks in populations in the Sierra Madre Oriental and coastal mountain ranges of California, which may be targets for conservation concerns.     

Estimating a geographically explicit model of population divergence

Patterns of genetic variation can provide valuable insights for deciphering the relative roles of different evolutionary processes in species differentiation. However, population-genetic models for studying divergence in geographically structured species are generally lacking. Since these are the biogeographic settings where genetic drift is expected to predominate, not only are population-genetic tests of hypotheses in geographically structured species constrained, but generalizations about the evolutionary processes that promote species divergence may also be potentially biased. Here we estimate a population-divergence model in montane grasshoppers from the sky islands of the Rocky Mountains. Because this region was directly impacted by Pleistocene glaciation, both the displacement into glacial refugia and recolonization of montane habitats may contribute to differentiation. Building on the tradition of using information from the genealogical relationships of alleles to infer the geography of divergence, here the additional consideration of the process of gene-lineage sorting is used to obtain a quantitative estimate of population relationships and historical associations (i.e., a population tree) from the gene trees of five anonymous nuclear loci and one mitochondrial locus in the broadly distributed species Melanoplus oregonensis. Three different approaches are used to estimate a model of population divergence; this comparison allows us to evaluate specific methodological assumptions that influence the estimated history of divergence. A model of population divergence was identified that significantly fits the data better compared to the other approaches, based on per-site likelihood scores of the multiple loci, and that provides clues about how divergence proceeded in M. oregonensis during the dynamic Pleistocene. Unlike the approaches that either considered only the most recent coalescence (i.e., information from a single individual per population) or did not consider the pattern of coalescence in the gene genealogies, the population-divergence model that best fits the data was estimated by considering the pattern of gene lineage coalescence across multiple individuals, as well as loci. These results indicate that sampling of multiple individuals per population is critical to obtaining an accurate estimate of the history of divergence so that the signal of common ancestry can be separated from the confounding influence of gene flow-even though estimates suggest that gene flow is not a predominant factor structuring patterns of genetic variation across these sky island populations. They also suggest that the gene genealogies contain information about population relationships, despite the lack of complete sorting of gene lineages. What emerges from the analyses is a model of population divergence that incorporates both contemporary distributions and historical associations, and shows a latitudinal and regional structuring of populations reminiscent of population displacements into multiple glacial refugia. Because the population-divergence model itself is built upon the specific events shaping the history of M. oregonensis, it provides a framework for estimating additional population-genetic parameters relevant to understanding the processes governing differentiation in geographically structured species and avoids the problems of relying on overly simplified and inaccurate divergence models. The utility of these approaches, as well as the caveats and future improvements, for estimating population relationships and historical associations relevant to genetic analyses of geographically structured species are discussed.     

Inferring human population sizes, divergence times and rates of gene flow from mitochondrial, X and Y chromosome resequencing data

We estimate parameters of a general isolation-with-migration model using resequence data from mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA), the Y chromosome, and two loci on the X chromosome in samples of 25-50 individuals from each of 10 human populations. Application of a coalescent-based Markov chain Monte Carlo technique allows simultaneous inference of divergence times, rates of gene flow, as well as changes in effective population size. Results from comparisons between sub-Saharan African and Eurasian populations estimate that 1500 individuals founded the ancestral Eurasian population approximately 40 thousand years ago (KYA). Furthermore, these small Eurasian founding populations appear to have grown much more dramatically than either African or Oceanian populations. Analyses of sub-Saharan African populations provide little evidence for a history of population bottlenecks and suggest that they began diverging from one another upward of 50 KYA. We surmise that ancestral African populations had already been geographically structured prior to the founding of ancestral Eurasian populations. African populations are shown to experience low levels of mitochondrial DNA gene flow, but high levels of Y chromosome gene flow. In particular, Y chromosome gene flow appears to be asymmetric, i.e., from the Bantu-speaking population into other African populations. Conversely, mitochondrial gene flow is more extensive between non-African populations, but appears to be absent between European and Asian populations.     

Genetic structure of the Sardinian population at the D1S80 VNTR locus and population diversity

We typed the Sardinian population at the D1S80 VNTR locus. Nineteen alleles were detected in a sample of 92 unrelated individuals, allele frequency distribution showing a modal pattern mostly in agreement with other Caucasoid populations. A high degree of heterozygosity (observed value=80.4%) was present. Goodness-of-fit tests demonstrated no departure from Hardy-Weinberg expectations. Data regarding heterozygosity, number of alleles and singletons appeared in accordance with the IAM mutation-drift equilibrium model and showed no evidence of hidden substructuring. Allele 34 exhibited in Sardinians the highest frequency never observed in Caucasians. Nonetheless, the comparison with other European populations did not disclose Sardinian genetic peculiarity. Indeed, measures of genetic divergence among Europeans demonstrated definitely smaller values at the D1S80 locus in comparison with those calculated over a high number of (pre-DNA) polymorphic loci. High mutation rate and selective neutrality typical of VNTRs could account for the observed moderate genetic divergence. Isolation and genetic drift, on the other hand, may have determined certain deviations in allele frequency distribution, as occurred to allele 34 in the Sardinian population.     

A simple method of removing the effect of a bottleneck and unequal population sizes on pairwise genetic distances

In this paper, we derive the expectation of two popular genetic distances under a model of pure population fission allowing for unequal population sizes. Under the model, we show that conventional genetic distances are not proportional to the divergence time and generally overestimate it due to unequal genetic drift and to a bottleneck effect at the divergence time. This bias cannot be totally removed even if the present population sizes are known. Instead, we present a method to estimate the divergence times between populations which is based on the average number of nucleotide differences within and between populations. The method simultaneously estimates the divergence time, the ancestral population size and the relative sizes of the derived populations. A simulation study revealed that this method is essentially unbiased and that it leads to better estimates than traditional approaches for a very wide range of parameter values. Simulations also indicated that moderate population growth after divergence has little effect on the estimates of all three estimated parameters. An application of our method to a comparison of humans and chimpanzee mitochondrial DNA diversity revealed that common chimpanzees have a significantly larger female population size than humans.     

Parallel selection on TRPV6 in human populations

We identified and examined a candidate gene for local directional selection in Europeans, TRPV6, and conclude that selection has acted on standing genetic variation at this locus, creating parallel soft sweep events in humans. A novel modification of the extended haplotype homozygosity (EHH) test was utilized, which compares EHH for a single allele across populations, to investigate the signature of selection at TRPV6 and neighboring linked loci in published data sets for Europeans, Asians and African-Americans, as well as in newly-obtained sequence data for additional populations. We find that all non-African populations carry a signature of selection on the same haplotype at the TRPV6 locus. The selective footprints, however, are significantly differentiated between non-African populations and estimated to be younger than an ancestral population of non-Africans. The possibility of a single selection event occurring in an ancestral population of non-Africans was tested by simulations and rejected. The putatively-selected TRPV6 haplotype contains three candidate sites for functional differences, namely derived non-synonymous substitutions C157R, M378V and M681T. Potential functional differences between the ancestral and derived TRPV6 proteins were investigated by cloning the ancestral and derived forms, transfecting cell lines, and carrying out electrophysiology experiments via patch clamp analysis. No statistically-significant differences in biophysical channel function were found, although one property of the protein, namely Ca(2+) dependent inactivation, may show functionally relevant differences between the ancestral and derived forms. Although the reason for selection on this locus remains elusive, this is the first demonstration of a widespread parallel selection event acting on standing genetic variation in humans, and highlights the utility of between population EHH statistics.     

Founder events and variation at microsatellite loci in an insular passerine bird, the Laysan finch (Telespiza cantans)

Historically documented founder events provide opportunities to assess the effects of population size reductions on genetic variation, but the actual magnitude of genetic change can be measured only when direct comparisons can be made to the source or ancestral population. We assayed variation at nine microsatellite loci in the translocated population of the Laysan finch ( Telespiza cantans ) at Pearl and Hermes reef (PHR), and compared the level of variation to that in the source population on Laysan Island. Heterogeneity in allele frequencies was highly significant at eight of the nine loci, primarily as a result of fluctuations in allele frequencies in the three PHR populations. Intra- and interpopulational measures of genetic diversity generally matched predictions based on the well-documented history of three islet populations at PHR: significantly lower numbers of alleles and polymorphic loci, as well as higher pairwise F _ST values and genetic distance, were observed for the two populations that underwent severe size reductions. Changes in heterozygosity at single loci were unpredictable, as both significant increases and decreases were observed in founder populations. A significant excess of heterozygotes was found in two populations and was highly significant over all four finch populations ( P < 0.003). Estimates of effective population size from temporal changes in heterozygosity and allele frequencies were very small ( N _e≤ 30) as a result of the founding events and the constraints of islet area on population numbers. We concluded that the PHR population is not adequate as a secondary genetic reserve for T. cantans , and an alternative refuge needs to be established.     

Multiple merger gene genealogies in two species: Monophyly, paraphyly, and polyphyly for two examples of Lambda coalescents

Probabilities of monophyly, paraphyly, and polyphyly of two-species gene genealogies are computed for modest sample sizes and compared for two different Λ coalescent processes. Coalescent processes belonging to the Λ coalescent family admit asynchronous multiple mergers of active ancestral lineages. Assigning a timescale to the time of divergence becomes a central issue when different populations have different coalescent processes running on different timescales. Clade probabilities in single populations are also computed, which can be useful for testing for taxonomic distinctiveness of an observed set of monophyletic lineages. The coalescence rates of multiple merger coalescent processes are functions of coalescent parameters. The effect of coalescent parameters on the probabilities studied depends on the coalescent process, and if the population is ancestral or derived. The probability of reciprocal monophyly tends to be somewhat lower, when associated with a Λ coalescent, under the null hypothesis that two groups come from the same population. However, even for fairly recent divergence times, the probability of monophyly tends to be higher as a function of the number of generations for coalescent processes that admit multiple mergers, and is sensitive to the parameter of one of the example processes.     

Diversity and divergence patterns in regulatory genes suggest differential gene flow in recently derived species of the Hawaiian silversword alliance adaptive radiation (Asteraceae)

The impact of gene flow and population size fluctuations in shaping genetic variation during adaptive radiation, at both the genome-wide and gene-specific levels, is very poorly understood. To examine how historical population size and gene flow patterns within and between loci have influenced lineage divergence in the Hawaiian silversword alliance, we have investigated the nucleotide sequence diversity and divergence patterns of four floral regulatory genes (ASAP1-A, ASAP1-B, ASAP3-A, ASAP3-B) and a structural gene (ASCAB9). Levels and patterns of molecular divergence across these five nuclear loci were estimated between two recently derived species (Dubautia ciliolata and Dubautia arborea) which are presumed to be sibling species. This multilocus analysis of genetic variation, haplotype divergence and historical demography indicates that population expansion and differential gene flow occurred subsequent to the divergence of these two lineages. Moreover, contrasting patterns of allele- sharing for regulatory loci vs. a structural locus between these two sibling species indicate alternative histories of genetic variation and partitioning among loci where alleles of the floral regulatory loci are shared primarily from D. arborea to D. ciliolata and alleles of the structural locus are shared in both directions. Taken together, these results suggest that adaptively radiating species can exhibit contrasting allele migration rates among loci such that allele movement at specific loci may supersede genetic divergence caused by drift and that lineage divergence during adaptive radiation can be associated with population expansion.     

Y chromosomal DNA variation and the peopling of Japan.

Four loci mapping to the nonrecombining portion of the Y chromosome were genotyped in Japanese populations from Okinawa, the southernmost island of Japan; Shizuoka and Aomori on the main island of Honshu; and a small sample of Taiwanese. The Y Alu polymorphic (YAP) element is present in 42% of the Japanese and absent in the Taiwanese, confirming the irregular distribution of this polymorphism in Asia. Data from the four loci were used to determine genetic distances among populations, construct Y chromosome haplotypes, and estimate the degree of genetic diversity in each population and on different Y chromosome haplotypes. Evolutionary analysis of Y haplotypes suggests that polymorphisms at the YAP (DYS287) and DXYS5Y loci originated a single time, whereas restriction patterns at the DYS1 locus and microsatellite alleles at the DYS19 locus arose more than once. Genetic distance analysis indicated that the Okinawans are differentiated from Japanese living on Honshu. The data support the hypotheses that modern Japanese populations have resulted from distinctive genetic contributions involving the ancient Jomon people and Yayoi immigrants from Korea or mainland China, with Okinawans experiencing the least amount of admixture with the Yayoi. It is suggested that YAP+ chromosomes migrated to Japan with the Jomon people > 10,000 years ago and that a large infusion of YAP- chromosomes entered Japan with the Yayoi migration starting 2,300 years ago. Different degrees of genetic diversity carried by these two ancient chromosomal lineages may be explained by the different life-styles (hunter-gatherer versus agriculturalist). of the migrant groups, the size of the founding populations, and the antiquities of the founding events.     

Demographic processes underlying subtle patterns of population structure in the scalloped hammerhead shark, Sphyrna lewini

Genetic diversity (θ), effective population size (N(e)), and contemporary levels of gene flow are important parameters to estimate for species of conservation concern, such as the globally endangered scalloped hammerhead shark, Sphyrna lewini. Therefore, we have reconstructed the demographic history of S. lewini across its Eastern Pacific (EP) range by applying classical and coalescent population genetic methods to a combination of 15 microsatellite loci and mtDNA control region sequences. In addition to significant population genetic structure and isolation-by-distance among seven coastal sites between central Mexico and Ecuador, the analyses revealed that all populations have experienced a bottleneck and that all current values of θ are at least an order of magnitude smaller than ancestral θ, indicating large decreases in N(e) (θ = 4N(e)μ), where μ is the mutation rate. Application of the isolation-with-migration (IM) model showed modest but significant genetic connectivity between most sampled sites (point estimates of Nm = 0.1-16.7), with divergence times (t) among all populations significantly greater than zero. Using a conservative (i.e., slow) fossil-based taxon-specific phylogenetic calibration for mtDNA mutation rates, posterior probability distributions (PPDs) for the onset of the decline in N(e) predate modern fishing in this region. The cause of decline over the last several thousand years is unknown but is highly atypical as a post-glacial demographic history. Regardless of the cause, our data and analyses suggest that S. lewini was far more abundant throughout the EP in the past than at present.     

Inference of population structure under a Dirichlet process model

Inferring population structure from genetic data sampled from some number of individuals is a formidable statistical problem. One widely used approach considers the number of populations to be fixed and calculates the posterior probability of assigning individuals to each population. More recently, the assignment of individuals to populations and the number of populations have both been considered random variables that follow a Dirichlet process prior. We examined the statistical behavior of assignment of individuals to populations under a Dirichlet process prior. First, we examined a best-case scenario, in which all of the assumptions of the Dirichlet process prior were satisfied, by generating data under a Dirichlet process prior. Second, we examined the performance of the method when the genetic data were generated under a population genetics model with symmetric migration between populations. We examined the accuracy of population assignment using a distance on partitions. The method can be quite accurate with a moderate number of loci. As expected, inferences on the number of populations are more accurate when theta = 4N(e)u is large and when the migration rate (4N(e)m) is low. We also examined the sensitivity of inferences of population structure to choice of the parameter of the Dirichlet process model. Although inferences could be sensitive to the choice of the prior on the number of populations, this sensitivity occurred when the number of loci sampled was small; inferences are more robust to the prior on the number of populations when the number of sampled loci is large. Finally, we discuss several methods for summarizing the results of a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis of population structure. We develop the notion of the mean population partition, which is the partition of individuals to populations that minimizes the squared partition distance to the partitions sampled by the MCMC algorithm.     

Persistence of Mhc heterozygosity in homozygous clonal killifish,Rivulus marmoratus: implications for the origin of hermaphroditism

The mangrove killifish Rivulus marmoratus, a neotropical fish in the order Cyprinodontiformes, is the only known obligatorily selfing, synchronous hermaphroditic vertebrate. To shed light on its population structure and the origin of hermaphroditism, major histocompatibility complex (Mhc) class I genes of the killifish from seven different localities in Florida, Belize, and the Bahamas were cloned and sequenced. Thirteen loci and their alleles were identified and classified into eight groups. The loci apparently arose approximately 20 million years ago (MYA) by gene duplications from a single common progenitor in the ancestors of R. marmoratus and its closest relatives. Distinct loci were found to be restricted to different populations and different individuals in the same population. Up to 44% of the fish were heterozygotes at Mhc loci, as compared to near homozygosity at non-Mhc loci. Large genetic distances between some of the Mhc alleles revealed the presence of ancestral allelic lineages. Computer simulation designed to explain these findings indicated that selfing is incomplete in R. marmoratus populations, that Mhc allelic lineages must have diverged before the onset of selfing, and that the hermaphroditism arose in a population containing multiple ancestral Mhc lineages. A model is proposed in which hermaphroditism arose stage-wise by mutations, each of which spread through the entire population and was fixed independently in the emerging clones.     

Inference of past population expansion from the timing of coalescence events in a gene genealogy

We investigate the expected coalescent in populations growing exponentially. The distribution of expected times to coalescence events may show a linear relationship with a number of ancestral lineages, when the latter is subjected to the "epidemic transformation". However, in a number of viral populations, upward curves are created when the epidemically transformed number of ancestral lineages is plotted against time. We consider possible causes of such upward curves. These include the possibility that a curved line is created through a transformation failure due to a sample size that is too large. We suggest a new formula for predicting such failure. The second cause is a population size increasing at an accelerating rate. However, the combination of recent coalescent events and an upward curve is created by an accelerating population increase only under restricted conditions. Specifically, such a pattern is expected only when, were population growth not to have accelerated, the transformation would have failed anyway. The third cause of nonlinearity arises in the estimated coalescent, as distinct from the real coalescent, if the mutation rate is small. However, coalescence times estimated from data typically give a straight line following epidemic transformation, but the rate of exponential increase, or r value, will be underestimated.