Changes to the elevational limits and extent of species ranges associated with climate change

The first expected symptoms of a climate change‐generated biodiversity crisis are range contractions and extinctions at lower elevational and latitudinal limits to species distributions. However, whilst range expansions at high elevations and latitudes have been widely documented, there has been surprisingly little evidence for contractions at warm margins. We show that lower elevational limits for 16 butterfly species in central Spain have risen on average by 212 m (± SE 60) in 30 years, accompanying a 1.3 °C rise (equivalent to c. 225 m) in mean annual temperature. These elevational shifts signify an average reduction in habitable area by one‐third, with losses of 50–80% projected for the coming century, given maintenance of the species thermal associations. The results suggest that many species have already suffered climate‐mediated habitat losses that may threaten their long‐term chances of survival.     

Fine‐scale determinants of butterfly species richness and composition in a mountain region

Aim Global patterns of species richness are often considered to depend primarily on climate. We aimed to determine how topography and land cover affect species richness and composition at finer scales. Location Sierra de Guadarrama (central Iberian Peninsula). Methods We sampled the butterfly fauna of 180 locations (89 in 2004, 91 in 2005) at 600–2300 m elevation in a region of 10800 km². We recorded environmental variables at 100‐m resolution using GIS, and derived generalized linear models for species density (number of species per unit area) and expected richness (number of species standardized to number of individuals) based on variables of topoclimate (elevation and insolation) or land cover (vegetation type, geology and hydrology), or both (combined). We evaluated the models against independent data from the alternative study year. We also tested for differences in species composition among sites and years using constrained ordination (canonical correspondence analysis), and used variation partitioning analyses to quantify the independent and combined roles of topoclimate and land cover. Results Topoclimatic, land cover and combined models were significantly related to observed species density and expected richness. Topoclimatic and combined models outperformed models based on land cover variables, showing a humped elevational diversity gradient. Both topoclimate and land cover made significant contributions to models of species composition. Main conclusions Topoclimatic factors may dominate species richness patterns in regions with pronounced elevational gradients, as long as large areas of natural habitat remain. In contrast, both topoclimate and land cover may have important effects on species composition. Biodiversity conservation in mountainous regions therefore requires protection and management of natural habitats over a wide range of topoclimatic conditions, which may assist in facilitating range shifts and alleviating declines in species richness related to climate change.     

Importance of historical factors on species richness and composition of butterfly assemblages (Lepidoptera: Rhopalocera) in a northern Iberian mountain range

ABSTRACT. The butterfly assemblages of three vegetation types (pasture, heathland and rocky outcrop with Genista spp.) and two geographical orientations (a northern slope and a sheltered gorge) were studied along an altitudinal gradient in the Picos de Europa in northern Spain. In order to study the effects or historical climatic changes on current butterfly assemblages, it was examined if changes in richness and faunal composition of assemblages were joined with changes in their biogeographical composition. The three vegetation types showed characteristic butterfly assemblages, but no difference in species richness and biogeographical composition was found. Species richness in the sheltered gorge was higher than in the northern slope. Faunal composition also varied between orientations and there were more widespread and Mediterranean species in the sheltered gorge than in the northern slope. Species richness declined with increasing altitude, though a midaltitudinal peak was observed. There was a faunal segregation between high and low localities. Species richness of widespread and Mediterranean butterflies decreased as altitude increased, whereas the reverse was true for montane species. Moreover, biogeographical elements differed in their climatic tolerances measured as altitudinal ranges. Therefore, changes in richness and composition of butterfly assemblages between both slopes and along the altitudinal gradient were joined in part with variation in their biogeographical composition. These results suggest that current species richness and composition of butterfly assemblages in the Picos de Europa might be the consequence of differential colonization of refuges during the past climatic changes.     

Forest composition in Mediterranean mountains is projected to shift along the entire elevational gradient under climate change

Aim Species distribution models have been used frequently to assess the effects of climate change on mountain biodiversity. However, the value and accuracy of these assessments have been hampered by the use of low‐resolution data for species distributions and climatic conditions. Herein we assess potential changes in the distribution and community composition of tree species in two mountainous regions of Spain under specific scenarios of climate change using data with a high spatial resolution. We also describe potential changes in species distributions and tree communities along the entire elevational gradient. Location Two mountain ranges in southern Europe: the Central Mountain Range (central west of the Iberian Peninsula), and the Iberian Mountain Range (central east). Methods We modelled current and future distributions of 15 tree species (Eurosiberian, sub‐Mediterranean and Mediterranean species) as functions of climate, lithology and availability of soil water using generalized linear models (logistic regression) and machine learning models (gradient boosting). Using multivariate ordination of a matrix of presence/absence of tree species obtained under two Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (A2 and B2) for two different periods in the future (2041–70 and 2071–2100), we assessed the predicted changes in the composition of tree communities. Results The models predicted an upward migration of communities of Mediterranean trees to higher elevations and an associated decline in communities of temperate or cold‐adapted trees during the 21st century. It was predicted that 80–99% of the area that shows a climate suitable for cold–wet‐optimum Eurosiberian coniferous and broad‐leaved species will be lost. The largest overall changes were predicted for Mediterranean species found currently at low elevations, such as Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, Quercus ilex ssp. ballota and Juniperus oxycedrus, with sharp increases in their range of 350%. Main conclusions It is likely that areas with climatic conditions suitable for cold‐adapted species will decrease significantly under climate warming. Large changes in species ranges and forest communities might occur, not only at high elevations within Mediterranean mountains but also along the entire elevational gradient throughout this region, particularly at low and mid‐elevations. Mediterranean mountains might lose their key role as refugia for cold‐adapted species and thus an important part of their genetic heritage.     

Elevational trends in butterfly phenology: implications for species responses to climate change

1. Impacts of global change on the distribution, abundance, and phenology of species have been widely documented. In particular, recent climate change has led to widespread changes in animal and plant seasonality, leading to debate about its potential to cause phenological mismatches among interacting taxa. 2. In mountainous regions, populations of many species show pronounced phenological gradients over short geographic distances, presenting the opportunity to test for effects of climate on phenology, independent of variation in confounding factors such as photoperiod. 3. Here we show for 32 butterfly species sampled for five years over a 1700 m gradient (560–2260 m) in a Mediterranean mountain range that, on average, annual flight period is delayed with elevation by 15–22 days per kilometre. Species mainly occurring at low elevations in the region, and to some extent those flying earlier in the year, showed phenological delays of 23–36 days per kilometre, whereas the flight periods of species that occupy high elevations, or fly in late summer, were consistently more synchronised over the elevation gradient. 4. Elevational patterns in phenology appear to reflect a narrowing phenological window of opportunity for larval and adult butterfly activity of high elevation and late‐flying species. 5. Here, we speculate as to the causes of these patterns, and the consequences for our ability to predict species responses to climate change. Our results raise questions about the use of space–time substitutions in predicting phenological responses to climate change, since traits relating to flight period and environmental associations may influence the capacity of species to adapt to changing climates.     

The coincidence of climatic and species rarity: high risk to small-range species from climate change

Why do areas with high numbers of small-range species occur where they do? We found that, for butterfly and plant species in Europe, and for bird species in the Western Hemisphere, such areas coincide with regions that have rare climates, and are higher and colder areas than surrounding regions. Species with small range sizes also tend to occur in climatically diverse regions, where species are likely to have been buffered from extinction in the past. We suggest that the centres of high small-range species richness we examined predominantly represent interglacial relict areas where cold-adapted species have been able to survive unusually warm periods in the last ca 10 000 years. We show that the rare climates that occur in current centres of species rarity will shrink disproportionately under future climate change, potentially leading to high vulnerability for many of the species they contain.     

Multiregional comparison of the ecological and phylogenetic structure of butterfly species richness gradients

Aim To examine butterfly species richness gradients in seven regions/countries and to quantify geographic mean root distance (MRD) patterns. My primary goal is to determine the extent to which an explanation for butterfly richness patterns based on tropical niche conservatism and the evolution of cold tolerance, proposed for the fauna of Canada and the USA, applies to other parts of the world. Location USA/Canada, Mexico, Europe/NW Africa, Transbaikal Siberia, Chile, South Africa and Australia. Methods Digitized range maps for butterfly species in each region were used to map richness patterns in summer (for all areas) and winter (for USA/Canada, Europe/NW Africa and Australia). A phylogeny resolved to subfamily was used to map the geographic MRD patterns. Regression trees and general linear models examined climatic and vegetation correlates of species richness and MRD within and among regions. Results Various combinations of climate and vegetation were strong predictors of species richness gradients within regions, but unresolved ‘regional’ factors contributed to the multiregional pattern. Regionally based differences in phylogenetic structure also exist, but MRD is negatively correlated with temperature both within and across areas. MRD patterns consistent with tropical niche conservatism occur in most areas. With a possible partial exception of Mexico, faunas in cold climates and in mountains are more derived than faunas in lowlands and tropical/subtropical climates. In USA/Canada, Europe and Australia, winter faunas are more derived than summer faunas. Main conclusions The phylogenetic pattern previously found in the USA and Canada is widespread in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, and niche conservatism and the evolution of cold tolerance is the likely explanation for the development of the global butterfly species richness gradient over evolutionary time. Contemporary climate also influences species richness patterns but is unlikely to be a complete explanation globally. The importance of climate is also manifested in the seasonal loss of more basal butterfly elements outside the tropics in winter.     

Changes in the composition of British butterfly assemblages over two decades

Changes in the abundance and distribution of individual species have been widely documented in Britain and other countries in recent decades, but little has been done to determine changes in community composition over broad geographic areas. Here, we studied species turnover in 51 butterfly assemblages in Britain since 1976, examining extinction and colonisation events together with variation in the abundances of the species. We showed that the species turnover that occurred over 20 years in Britain was associated with colonisation and extinction events and also with variability in the abundance of the species. These changes in community composition differed according to the habitat requirements of the species and their previous distributions, being more evident for habitat specialists and for southerly distributed species. Colonising species often became abundant components of the communities they joined, although this was more evident for generalist than for specialist species. The abundance of species following their arrival, increased with time since colonisation. Species turnover associated with southerly species expanding northwards is consistent with being a response to climate change. The results suggest that climate- and habitat-driven changes in the identity and abundance of species within communities are widespread, and probably ubiquitous. Similar changes are likely to be occurring in other groups of organisms that are similarly undertaking major range shifts associated with climate change.     

The contributions of topoclimate and land cover to species distributions and abundance: fine‐resolution tests for a mountain butterfly fauna

Aim Models relating species distributions to climate or habitat are widely used to predict the effects of global change on biodiversity. Most such approaches assume that climate governs coarse‐scale species ranges, whereas habitat limits fine‐scale distributions. We tested the influence of topoclimate and land cover on butterfly distributions and abundance in a mountain range, where climate may vary as markedly at a fine scale as land cover. Location Sierra de Guadarrama (Spain, southern Europe) Methods We sampled the butterfly fauna of 180 locations (89 in 2004, 91 in 2005) in a 10,800 km² region, and derived generalized linear models (GLMs) for species occurrence and abundance based on topoclimatic (elevation and insolation) or habitat (land cover, geology and hydrology) variables sampled at 100‐m resolution using GIS. Models for each year were tested against independent data from the alternate year, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) (distribution) or Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (r_s) (abundance). Results In independent model tests, 74% of occurrence models achieved AUCs of > 0.7, and 85% of abundance models were significantly related to observed abundance. Topoclimatic models outperformed models based purely on land cover in 72% of occurrence models and 66% of abundance models. Including both types of variables often explained most variation in model calibration, but did not significantly improve model cross‐validation relative to topoclimatic models. Hierarchical partitioning analysis confirmed the overriding effect of topoclimatic factors on species distributions, with the exception of several species for which the importance of land cover was confirmed. Main conclusions Topoclimatic factors may dominate fine‐resolution species distributions in mountain ranges where climate conditions vary markedly over short distances and large areas of natural habitat remain. Climate change is likely to be a key driver of species distributions in such systems and could have important effects on biodiversity. However, continued habitat protection may be vital to facilitate range shifts in response to climate change.     

山地物种海拔分布对气候变化响应的研究进展

过去1个世纪以来, 全球气候变化显著并已成为全球生物多样性面临的重要威胁之一。如何利用有限的资源最有效地保护生物多样性已成为亟待解决的最重要科学问题之一。山地因其具有较高的生境异质性、气候多样性和较低的人类活动干扰, 已成为最重要的生物多样性避难所, 也具有较高的生态服务价值, 在生物多样性保护中扮演着重要角色。但山地更容易受到气候变化的影响, 山地地区较为剧烈的气候变化将对山地生态系统的稳定性及其多样性造成严重威胁。理解山地物种海拔分布对气候变化的响应和潜在机理, 以及气候变化带来的物种海拔分布变化的负面效应, 将为全球气候变化背景下的山地生物多样性保护提供参考依据。本文综述了全球山地地区的气候变化情况, 总结了物种海拔迁移的研究进展, 重点讨论了山地物种分布最适海拔、海拔上下限和海拔分布范围变化的研究进展及不足, 比较了不同地区和不同类群物种海拔迁移的差异性, 以及物种对气候变化响应的滞后性。从生物及非生物因素等多个角度概括了物种海拔迁移响应气候变化的潜在机理, 评估并总结了气候变化引起的物种海拔分布所产生的负面效应, 主要对物种向上迁移对高海拔地区物种多样性的影响、物种迁移带来的分布区改变导致的物种灭绝风险以及物种海拔分布变化导致的种间相互作用改变等方面进行全面探讨。最后, 展望了未来在此领域研究中应注意的问题, 提出了在未来气候变化下山地生物多样性保护需要采取的措施, 强调应重点关注对气候变化较为敏感的类群及生物多样性区域, 加强中国山地物种对气候变化响应的监测网络建设和研究力度, 重点加强监测气候变化对动植物互作关系的影响。     

Landscape composition and habitat area affects butterfly species richness in semi-natural grasslands

During the last 50 years, the distribution and abundance of many European butterfly species associated with semi-natural grasslands have declined. This may be the result of deteriorating habitat quality, but habitat loss, resulting in decreasing area and increasing isolation of remaining habitat, is also predicted to result in reduced species richness. To investigate the effects of habitat loss on species richness, we surveyed butterflies in semi-natural grasslands of similar quality and structure, but situated in landscapes of different habitat composition. Using spatially explicit habitat data, we selected one large (6–10 ha) and one small (0.5–2 ha) grassland site (pasture) in each of 24 non-overlapping 28.2 km² landscapes belonging to three categories differing in the proportion of the area that consisted of semi-natural grasslands. After controlling for local habitat quality, species richness was higher in grassland sites situated in landscapes consisting of a high proportion of grasslands. Species richness was also higher in larger grassland sites, and this effect was more pronounced for sedentary than for mobile species. However, the number of species for a given area did not differ between large and small grasslands. There was also a significant relationship between butterfly species richness and habitat quality in the form of vegetation height and abundance of flowers. In contrast, butterfly density was not related to landscape composition or grassland size. When species respond differently to habitat area or landscape composition this leads to effects on community structure, and nestedness analysis showed that depauperate communities were subsets of richer ones. Both grassland area and landscape composition may have contributed to this pattern, implying that small habitat fragments and landscapes with low proportions of habitat are both likely to mainly contain common generalist species. Based on these results, conservation efforts should aim at preserving landscapes with high proportions of the focal habitat.     

Small mammal species richness and turnover along elevational gradient in Yulong Mountain,Yunnan, Southwest China

Understanding the species diversity patterns along elevational gradients is critical for biodiversity conservation in mountainous regions. We examined the elevational patterns of species richness and turnover, and evaluated the effects of spatial and environmental factors on nonvolant small mammals (hereafter “small mammal”) predicted a priori by alternative hypotheses (mid‐domain effect [MDE], species–area relationship [SAR], energy, environmental stability, and habitat complexity]) proposed to explain the variation of diversity. We designed a standardized sampling scheme to trap small mammals at ten elevational bands across the entire elevational gradient on Yulong Mountain, southwest China. A total of 1,808 small mammals representing 23 species were trapped. We observed the hump‐shaped distribution pattern of the overall species richness along elevational gradient. Insectivores, rodents, large‐ranged species, and endemic species richness showed the general hump‐shaped pattern but peaked at different elevations, whereas the small‐ranged species and endemic species favored the decreasing richness pattern. The MDE and the energy hypothesis were supported, whereas little support was found for the SAR, the environmental stability hypothesis, and the habitat complexity. However, the primary driver(s) for richness patterns differed among the partitioning groups, with NDVI (the normalized difference vegetation index) and MDE being the most important variables for the total richness pattern. Species turnover for all small mammal groups increased with elevation, and it supported a decrease in community similarity with elevational distance. Our results emphasized for increased conservation efforts in the higher elevation regions of the Yulong Mountain.     

Potential changes in the distributions of latitudinally restricted Australian butterfly species in response to climate change

This study assessed potential changes in the distributions of Australian butterfly species in response to global warming. The bioclimatic program, BIOCLIM, was used to determine the current climatic ranges of 77 butterfly species restricted to Australia. We found that the majority of these species had fairly wide climatic ranges in comparison to other taxa, with only 8% of butterfly species having a mean annual temperature range spanning less than 3 °C. The potential changes in the distributions of 24 butterfly species under four climate change scenarios for 2050 were also modelled using BIOCLIM. Results suggested that even species with currently wide climatic ranges may still be vulnerable to climate change; under a very conservative climate change scenario (with a temperature increase of 0.8–1.4 °C by 2050) 88% of species distributions decreased, and 54% of species distributions decreased by at least 20%. Under an extreme scenario (temperature increase of 2.1–3.9 °C by 2050) 92% of species distributions decreased, and 83% of species distributions decreased by at least 50%. Furthermore, the proportion of the current range that was contained within the predicted range decreased from an average of 63% under a very conservative scenario to less than 22% under the most extreme scenario. By assessing the climatic ranges that species are currently exposed to, the extent of potential changes in distributions in response to climate change and details of their life histories, we identified species whose characteristics may make them particularly vulnerable to climate change in the future.     

The effects of climate change on a mega‐diverse country: predicted shifts in mammalian species richness and turnover in continental Ecuador

Ecuador has some of the greatest biodiversity in the world, sheltering global biodiversity hotspots in lowland and mountain regions. Climate change will likely have a major effect on these regions, but the consequences for faunal diversity and conservation remain unclear. To address this issue, we used an ensemble of eight species distribution models to predict future shifts and identify areas of high changes in species richness and species turnover for 201 mammals. We projected the distributions using two different climate change scenarios at the 2050 horizon and contrasted two extreme dispersal scenarios (no dispersal vs. full dispersal). Our results showed extended distributional shifts all over the country. For most groups, our results predicted that the current diversity of mammals in Ecuador would decrease significantly under all climate change scenarios and dispersal assumptions. The Northern Andes and the Amazonian region would remain diversity hotspots but with a significant decrease in the number of species. All predictions, including the most conservative scenarios in terms of dispersal and climate change, predicted major changes in the distribution of mammalian species diversity in Ecuador. Primates might be the most severely affected because they would have fewer suitable areas, compared with other mammals. Our work emphasizes the need for sound conservation strategies in Ecuador to mitigate the effects of climate change     

Combining projected changes in species richness and composition reveals climate change impacts on coastal Mediterranean fish assemblages

Species Temporal Turnover (STT) is one of the most familiar metrics to assess changes in assemblage composition as a consequence of climate change. However, STT mixes two components in one metric, changes in assemblage composition caused by a process of species loss or gain (i.e. the nestedness component) and changes in assemblage composition caused by a process of species replacement (i.e. the species replacement component). Drawing on previous studies investigating spatial patterns of beta diversity, we propose measures of STT that allow analysing each component (species replacement vs. nestedness), separately. We also present a mapping strategy to simultaneously visualize changes in species richness and assemblage composition. To illustrate our approach, we used the Mediterranean coastal fish fauna as a case study. Using Bioclimatic Envelope Models (BEMs) we first projected the potential future climatic niches of 288 coastal Mediterranean fish species based on a global warming scenario. We then aggregated geographically the species‐level projections to analyse the projected changes in species richness and composition. Our results show that projected changes in assemblage composition are caused by different processes (species replacement vs. nestedness) in several areas of the Mediterranean Sea. In addition, our mapping strategy highlights that the coastal fish fauna in several regions of the Mediterranean Sea could experience a ‘cul‐de‐sac’ effect if exposed to climate warming. Overall, the joint exploration of changes in species richness and composition coupled with the distinction between species replacement and nestedness bears important information for understanding the nature of climate change impacts on biodiversity. These methodological advances should help decision‐makers in prioritizing action in the areas facing the greatest vulnerability to climate.     

Climate-based models of spatial patterns of species richness in Egypt's butterfly and mammal fauna

Aim  Identifying areas of high species richness is an important goal of conservation biogeography. In this study we compared alternative methods for generating climate-based estimates of spatial patterns of butterfly and mammal species richness.
Location  Egypt.
Methods  Data on the occurrence of butterflies and mammals in Egypt were taken from an electronic database compiled from museum records and the literature. Using M axent , species distribution models were built with these data and with variables describing climate and habitat. Species richness predictions were made by summing distribution models for individual species and by modelling observed species richness directly using the same environmental variables.
Results  Estimates of species richness from both methods correlated positively with each other and with observed species richness. Protected areas had higher species richness (both predicted and actual) than unprotected areas.
Main conclusions  Our results suggest that climate-based models of species richness could provide a rapid method for selecting potential areas for protection and thus have important implications for biodiversity conservation.     

Species richness,abundance, distributional pattern and trait composition of butterfly assemblage change along an altitudinal gradient in the Gulmarg region of Jammu & Kashmir,India

Despite enormous diversity, abundance, and role in ecosystem processes, little is known about how butterflies differ across altitudinal gradients. For this, butterfly communities were investigated along an altitudinal gradient of 2700–3200 m a.s.l, along the Gulmarg region of Jammu & Kashmir, India. We aimed to determine how the altitudinal gradient and environmental factors affect the butterfly diversity and abundance. Our findings indicate that species richness and diversity are mainly affected by the synergism between climate and vegetation. Alpha diversity indices showed that butterfly communities were more diverse at lower elevations and declined significantly with increase in elevation. Overall, butterfly abundance and diversity is stronger at lower elevations and gradually keep dropping towards higher elevations because floristic diversity decreased on which butterflies rely for survival and propagation. A total of 2023 individuals of butterflies were recorded belonging to 40 species, represented by 27 genera and 05 families. Six survey sites (S I- S VI) were assessed for butterfly diversity from 2018 to 2020 in the Gulmarg region of Jammu & Kashmir. Across the survey, Nymphalidae was the most dominant family represented by 16 genera and 23 species, while Papilionidae and Hesperiidae were least dominant represented by 01 genera and 01 species each. Among the six collection sites selected, Site I was most dominant, represented by 16 genera and 21 species, while Site VI was least dominant, represented by 04 genera and 04 species.     

The effects of climate change on species composition,succession and phenology: a case study

Climate change and its role in altering biological interactions and the likelihood of invasion by introduced species in marine systems have received increased attention in recent years. It is difficult to forecast how climate change will influence community function or the probability of invasion as it alters multiple marine environmental parameters including rising water temperature, lower salinity and pH. In the present study, we correlate changes in environmental parameters to shifts in species composition in a subtidal community in Newcastle, NH through comparison of two, 3‐year periods separated by 23 years (1979–1981 and 2003–2005). We observed concurrent shifts in climate related factors and in groups of organisms that dominate the marine community when comparing 1979–1981 to 2003–2005. The 1979–1981 community was dominated by perennial species (mussels and barnacles). In contrast, the 2003–2005 community was dominated by annual native and invasive tunicates (sea‐squirts). We also observed a shift in the environmental factors that characterized both communities. Dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphate characterized the 1979–1981 community while sea surface temperature, pH, and chlorophyll a characterized the 2003–2005 community. Elongated warmer water temperatures, through the fall and early winter months of the 2000s, extended the growing season of native organisms and facilitated local dominance of invasive species. Additionally, beta‐diversity was greater between 2003–2005 than 1979–1981 and driven by larger numbers of annual species whose life‐history characteristics (e.g., timing and magnitude of recruitment, growth and mortality) are driven by environmental parameters, particularly temperature.     

Different evolutionary histories underlie congruent species richness gradients of birds and mammals

Aim The global species richness patterns of birds and mammals are strongly congruent. This could reflect similar evolutionary responses to the Earth’s history, shared responses to current climatic conditions, or both. We compare the geographical and phylogenetic structures of both richness gradients to evaluate these possibilities. Location Global. Methods Gridded bird and mammal distribution databases were used to compare their species richness gradients with the current environment. Phylogenetic trees (resolved to family for birds and to species for mammals) were used to examine underlying phylogenetic structures. Our first prediction is that both groups have responded to the same climatic gradients. Our phylogenetic predictions include: (1) that both groups have similar geographical patterns of mean root distance, a measure of the level of the evolutionary development of faunas, and, more directly, (2) that richness patterns of basal and derived clades will differ, with richness peaking in the tropics for basal clades and in the extra‐tropics for derived clades, and that this difference will hold for both birds and mammals. We also explore whether alternative taxonomic treatments for mammals can generate patterns matching those of birds. Results Both richness gradients are associated with the same current environmental gradients. In contrast, neither of our evolutionary predictions is met: the gradients have different phylogenetic structures, and the richness of birds in the lowland tropics is dominated by many basal species from many basal groups, whereas mammal richness is attributable to many species from both few basal groups and many derived groups. Phylogenetic incongruence is robust to taxonomic delineations for mammals. Main conclusions Contemporary climate can force multiple groups into similar diversity patterns even when evolutionary trajectories differ. Thus, as widely appreciated, our understanding of biodiversity must consider responses to both past and present climates, and our results are consistent with predictions that future climate change will cause major, correlated changes in patterns of diversity across multiple groups irrespective of their evolutionary histories.     

Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain

There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988–1991 and 2008–2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north‐west and north‐east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer‐effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north–north‐westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species‐specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more appropriate measures of observed and expected responses to climate change.