Impact of the topology of global macroeconomic network on the spreading of economic crises

Throughout economic history, the global economy has experienced recurring crises. The persistent recurrence of such economic crises calls for an understanding of their generic features rather than treating them as singular events. The global economic system is a highly complex system and can best be viewed in terms of a network of interacting macroeconomic agents. In this regard, from the perspective of collective network dynamics, here we explore how the topology of the global macroeconomic network affects the patterns of spreading of economic crises. Using a simple toy model of crisis spreading, we demonstrate that an individual country's role in crisis spreading is not only dependent on its gross macroeconomic capacities, but also on its local and global connectivity profile in the context of the world economic network. We find that on one hand clustering of weak links at the regional scale can significantly aggravate the spread of crises, but on the other hand the current network structure at the global scale harbors higher tolerance of extreme crises compared to more "globalized" random networks. These results suggest that there can be a potential hidden cost in the ongoing globalization movement towards establishing less-constrained, trans-regional economic links between countries, by increasing vulnerability of the global economic system to extreme crises.     

Phanerozoic survivors: Actinopterygian evolution through the Permo‐Triassic and Triassic‐Jurassic mass extinction events

Actinopterygians (ray‐finned fishes) successfully passed through four of the big five mass extinction events of the Phanerozoic, but the effects of these crises on the group are poorly understood. Many researchers have assumed that the Permo‐Triassic mass extinction (PTME) and end‐Triassic extinction (ETE) had little impact on actinopterygians, despite devastating many other groups. Here, two morphometric techniques, geometric (body shape) and functional (jaw morphology), are used to assess the effects of these two extinction events on the group. The PTME elicits no significant shifts in functional disparity while body shape disparity increases. An expansion of body shape and functional disparity coincides with the neopterygian radiation and evolution of novel feeding adaptations in the Middle‐Late Triassic. Through the ETE, small decreases are seen in shape and functional disparity, but are unlikely to represent major changes brought about by the extinction event. In the Early Jurassic, further expansions into novel areas of ecospace indicative of durophagy occur, potentially linked to losses in the ETE. As no evidence is found for major perturbations in actinopterygian evolution through either extinction event, the group appears to have been immune to two major environmental crises that were disastrous to most other organisms.     

Resistance of spiders to Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction events

Throughout Earth history a small number of global catastrophic events leading to biotic crises have caused mass extinctions. Here, using a technique that combines taxonomic and numerical data, we consider the effects of the Cenomanian-Turonian and Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions on the terrestrial spider fauna in the light of new fossil data. We provide the first evidence that spiders suffered no decline at the family level during these mass extinction events. On the contrary, we show that they increased in relative numbers through the Cretaceous and beyond the Cretaceous-Tertiary extinction event.     

Some remarks on the structure and function of refugia in ecology and palaeoecology

Studies of processes connected with various Phanerozoic mass extinctions suggest that although these events differ in details from each other, they manifest certain global mutual similarities. There is a number of detailed data on the mass extinction phases but only scarce information on the survival and recovery intervals directly following the crises. In connection with the biota crises studies also the problem of refugia started to be discussed very intensively, because namely fossil refugia can contain fossils representing important connecting links getting over boundaries of mass extinctions. The aim of this article is to join some general considerations of possible refugia structures, functions and spatial and temporal changes to the discussion being in progress.     

Exceptions to the temperature–size rule: no Lilliput Effect in end-Permian ostracods (Crustacea) from Aras Valley (northwest Iran)

The body size of marine ectotherms is often negatively correlated with ambient water temperature, as seen in many clades during the hyperthermal crisis of the end-Permian mass extinction (c. 252 Ma). However, in the case of ostracods, size changes during ancient hyperthermal events are rarely quantified. In this study, we evaluate the body size changes of ostracods in the Aras Valley section (northwest Iran) in response to the drastic warming during the end-Permian mass extinction at three taxonomic levels: class, order, species. At the assemblage level, the warming triggers a complete species turnover in the Aras Valley section, with larger, newly emerging species dominating the immediate post-extinction assemblage for a short time. Individual ostracod species and instars do not show dwarfing or a change in body size as an adaptation to the temperature stress during the end-Permian crisis. This may indicate that the ostracods in the Aras Valley section might have been exceptions to the temperature–size rule (TSR), using an adaptation mechanism that does not involve a decrease in body size. This adaptation might be similar to the accelerated development despite constant instar body sizes that can be observed in some recent experimental studies of ostracod responses to thermal stress.     

The late Devonian trilobite crises

Mid‐Devonian to end‐Late Devonian trilobites of different taxonomic categories are updated as to their actual stratigraphical range with respect to the internationally defined stage boundaries. The main palaeogeographical and ecological occurrences are summarized. Numerical analyses emphasize the clear relationship between fluctuations in diversity and global eustatic events. Already declining in diversity from the early mid‐Devonian, shallow‐water communities became most restricted during the mid‐Givetian Taghanic transgression. After a phase of adaptive radiation, off‐shore trilobite communities were severely affected during the mid‐ and end‐Late Devonian crises. From an initial 5 orders 3 were lost at the end‐Frasnian Kellwasser crisis while only 1 from the remaining 2 orders survived the Devonian‐Carboniferous boundary Hangenberg event. In both cases extinction was preceded by a unidirectional evolutionary trend in eye reduction accompanied by impoverishment of lower rank taxa. This phenomenon is obviously a result of selective adaptation under constant long‐lasting environmental influences. Specialization to obligate epi‐ or even endo‐benthic life habit, however, led fatally to extinction when stable conditions became substantially perturbed. Sudden sea‐level changes with subsequent break in the REDOX‐equilibrium took place at the Kellwasser and Hangenberg events, which were most probably responsible for trilobite mass extinctions.     

Was the Late Ordovician mass extinction truly exceptional?

The Late Ordovician mass extinction event is the oldest of the five great extinction events in the fossil record. It has long been regarded as an outlier among mass extinctions, primarily due to its association with a cooling climate. However, recent temporally better resolved fossil biodiversity estimates complicate this view, providing growing evidence for a prolonged but punctuated biodiversity decline modulated by changes in atmospheric composition, ocean chemistry, and viable habitat area. This evolving view invokes extinction drivers similar to those that occurred during other major extinctions; some are even factors in the current human-induced biodiversity crisis. Even this very ancient and, at first glance, exceptional event conveys important lessons about the intensifying ‘sixth mass extinction’.     

Permian–Triassic Osteichthyes (bony fishes): diversity dynamics and body size evolution

The Permian and Triassic were key time intervals in the history of life on Earth. Both periods are marked by a series of biotic crises including the most catastrophic of such events, the end‐Permian mass extinction, which eventually led to a major turnover from typical Palaeozoic faunas and floras to those that are emblematic for the Mesozoic and Cenozoic. Here we review patterns in Permian–Triassic bony fishes, a group whose evolutionary dynamics are understudied. Based on data from primary literature, we analyse changes in their taxonomic diversity and body size (as a proxy for trophic position) and explore their response to Permian–Triassic events. Diversity and body size are investigated separately for different groups of Osteichthyes (Dipnoi, Actinistia, ‘Palaeopterygii’, ‘Subholostei’, Holostei, Teleosteomorpha), within the marine and freshwater realms and on a global scale (total diversity) as well as across palaeolatitudinal belts. Diversity is also measured for different palaeogeographical provinces. Our results suggest a general trend from low osteichthyan diversity in the Permian to higher levels in the Triassic. Diversity dynamics in the Permian are marked by a decline in freshwater taxa during the Cisuralian. An extinction event during the end‐Guadalupian crisis is not evident from our data, but ‘palaeopterygians’ experienced a significant body size increase across the Guadalupian–Lopingian boundary and these fishes upheld their position as large, top predators from the Late Permian to the Late Triassic. Elevated turnover rates are documented at the Permian–Triassic boundary, and two distinct diversification events are noted in the wake of this biotic crisis, a first one during the Early Triassic (dipnoans, actinistians, ‘palaeopterygians’, ‘subholosteans’) and a second one during the Middle Triassic (‘subholosteans’, neopterygians). The origination of new, small taxa predominantly among these groups during the Middle Triassic event caused a significant reduction in osteichthyan body size. Neopterygii, the clade that encompasses the vast majority of extant fishes, underwent another diversification phase in the Late Triassic. The Triassic radiation of Osteichthyes, predominantly of Actinopterygii, which only occurred after severe extinctions among Chondrichthyes during the Middle–Late Permian, resulted in a profound change within global fish communities, from chondrichthyan‐rich faunas of the Permo‐Carboniferous to typical Mesozoic and Cenozoic associations dominated by actinopterygians. This turnover was not sudden but followed a stepwise pattern, with leaps during extinction events.     

Fossil and phylogenetic analyses reveal recurrent periods of diversification and extinction in dictyopteran insects

Variations of speciation and extinction rates determine the fate of clades through time. Periods of high diversification and extinction (possibly mass-extinction events) can punctuate the evolutionary history of various clades, but they remain loosely defined for many biological groups, especially nonmarine invertebrates like insects. Here, we examine whether the cockroaches, mantises and termites (altogether included in Dictyoptera) have experienced episodic pulses of speciation or extinction and how these pulses may be associated with environmental fluctuations or mass extinctions. We relied on molecular phylogeny and fossil data to shed light on the times and rates at which dictyopterans diversified. The diversification of Dictyoptera has alternated between (i) periods of high diversification in the late Carboniferous, Early–Middle Triassic, Early Cretaceous and middle Palaeogene, and (ii) periods of high extinction rates particularly at the Permian-Triassic boundary, but not necessarily correlated with the major global biodiversity crises as in the mid-Cretaceous. This study advocates the importance of analyzing, when possible, both molecular phylogeny and fossil data to unveil diversification and extinction periods for a given group. The causes and consequences of extinction must be studied beyond mass-extinction events alone to gain a broader understanding of how clades wax and wane.     

Communicating the risks of bioterrorism and other emergencies in a diverse society: a case study of special populations in North Dakota

In the event that terrorists use air, water, or food to deliver destructive agents to civilian populations, some groups and populations may be disproportionately at risk and have unique communications needs. Bioterrorism represents an even greater national public health threat if the nation's preparedness and readiness plans do not address the needs and perspectives of, for example, low-income residents, racially and ethnically diverse communities, and other "special populations". The objective of this study was to develop communications strategies to reach special populations in North Dakota before, during, and after a bioterrorism attack or other crisis. To achieve the study objectives, the investigators used telephone interviews and telephone focus groups with organizations that represented special populations. Areas of inquiry included attitudes and concerns about crises, sources of information used and those identified as most credible, methods to reach people during a crisis event, and awareness of and attitudes about the agencies and organizations that affect risk communications.     

Disparity Changes in 370 Ma Devonian Fossils: The Signature of Ecological Dynamics?

Early periods in Earth's history have seen a progressive increase in complexity of the ecosystems, but also dramatic crises decimating the biosphere. Such patterns are usually considered as large-scale changes among supra-specific groups, including morphological novelties, radiation, and extinctions. Nevertheless, in the same time, each species evolved by the way of micro-evolutionary processes, extended over millions of years into the evolution of lineages. How these two evolutionary scales interacted is a challenging issue because this requires bridging a gap between scales of observation and processes. The present study aims at transferring a typical macro-evolutionary approach, namely disparity analysis, to the study of fine-scale evolutionary variations in order to decipher what processes actually drove the dynamics of diversity at a micro-evolutionary level. The Late Frasnian to Late Famennian period was selected because it is punctuated by two major macro-evolutionary crises, as well as a progressive diversification of marine ecosystem. Disparity was estimated through this period on conodonts, tooth-like fossil remains of small eel-like predators that were part of the nektonic fauna. The study was focused on the emblematic genus of the period, Palmatolepis. Strikingly, both crises affected an already impoverished Palmatolepis disparity, increasing risks of random extinction. The major disparity signal rather emerged as a cycle of increase and decrease in disparity during the inter-crises period. The diversification shortly followed the first crisis and might correspond to an opportunistic occupation of empty ecological niche. The subsequent oriented shrinking in the morphospace occupation suggests that the ecological space available to Palmatolepis decreased through time, due to a combination of factors: deteriorating climate, expansion of competitors and predators. Disparity changes of Palmatolepis thus reflect changes in the structure of the ecological space itself, which was prone to evolve during this ancient period where modern ecosystems were progressively shaped.     

The two Early Toarcian (Early Jurassic) extinction events in ammonoids

The Early Toarcian (Early Jurassic) biological crisis was one of the ‘minor’ mass extinctions. It is linked with an oceanic anoxic event. Fossil data from sections located in northwestern European (epicontinental platforms and basins) and Tethyan (distal, epioceanic) areas indicate that Late Pliensbachian–Early Toarcian ammonoids experienced two extinction events during the Early Toarcian. The older one is linked with disruption of the Tethyan–Boreal provinciality, whereas the younger event correlates with the onset of anoxia and corresponds with the Early Toarcian mass‐extinction event. These two extinctions cannot be interpreted as episodes of a single, stepwise, event. Values of the net diversification, more than the number of extinctions, allow the two extinction events to be clearly recognized and distinguished. Values of regional net diversification for northwestern European and Tethyan faunas point to greater evolutionary dynamics in the epioceanic areas. The inclusion of Mediterranean faunas in the database proves that the ammonite turnover at the Early Toarcian mass‐extinction event was more important than previously thought. Progenitor (evolute Neolioceratoides), survivor (Dactylioceras, Polyplectus pluricostatus) and Lazarus (Procliviceras) taxa have been recognized. Different selectivity patterns are shown for the two events. The first one, linked to the disruption of the Tethyan–Boreal provinciality, has mainly affected ammonites adapted to epicontinental platforms. In the mass‐extinction event, no selectivity is recognized, because also Phylloceratina and Lytoceratina were deeply affected at species level, although their wide biogeographical distribution at clade level was a significant buffer against extinction. In contrast to Palaeozoic mass extinctions, ammonoid survivors and Lazarus taxa are characterized by complex sutures: Phylloceratina (long‐ranging ammonoids) and Polyplectus (relatively long‐ranging compared to other Ammonitina).     

The Crisis Treatment of Suicide

Almost all suicidal persons who consult physicians wish to live. Generally they fall into one of two groups. Interpersonal suiciders manifest frequent threats and attempts, are emotionally labile, have ill-defined suicide plans, and clear ideas as to how their crises might be resolved. Intrapersonal suiciders are less open in manifestations of suicidal drive, withdrawn rather than emotional, often have clearly-formulated suicide plans and do not have ideas (other than suicide) as to how their crises might end. The suicidal situation results from two factors: (1) the loss of some valuable person or commodity, and (2) the loss of self-esteem. What ensues is temporary character disorganization—crisis. Treatment is based on restoration or replacement of lost objects and building up of self-esteem.     

Faunal change in the Turkana Basin during the late Oligocene and Miocene

Faunal evolution over the last 65 million years of earth's history was dominated by mammalian radiations, but much of this era is poorly represented in Africa. Mammals first appeared early in the Mesozoic, living alongside dinosaurs for millions of years, but it was not until the extinction of dinosaurs 65 myr ago that the first major explosion of mammalian taxa took place. The Cenozoic (65 Ma to Recent) witnessed repeated and dynamic events involving the radiation, evolution, and extinction of mammalian faunas. Two of these events, each marking the extinction of one diverse fauna and subsequent establishment of another equally diverse fauna, both involving advanced catarrhine primates, are recorded in sites in the Turkana Basin, despite the poorly represented record of Cenozoic faunas elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. The first of these events occurred at the Oligocene-Miocene transition and the other at the Miocene-Pliocene transition.     

Microbes and mass extinctions: paleoenvironmental distribution of microbialites during times of biotic crisis

Widespread development of microbialites characterizes the substrate and ecological response during the aftermath of two of the 'big five' mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic. This study reviews the microbial response recorded by macroscopic microbial structures to these events to examine how extinction mechanism may be linked to the style of microbialite development. Two main styles of response are recognized: (i) the expansion of microbialites into environments not previously occupied during the pre-extinction interval and (ii) increases in microbialite abundance and attainment of ecological dominance within environments occupied prior to the extinction. The Late Devonian biotic crisis contributed toward the decimation of platform margin reef taxa and was followed by increases in microbialite abundance in Famennian and earliest Carboniferous platform interior, margin, and slope settings. The end-Permian event records the suppression of infaunal activity and an elimination of metazoan-dominated reefs. The aftermath of this mass extinction is characterized by the expansion of microbialites into new environments including offshore and nearshore ramp, platform interior, and slope settings. The mass extinctions at the end of the Triassic and Cretaceous have not yet been associated with a macroscopic microbial response, although one has been suggested for the end-Ordovician event. The case for microbialites behaving as 'disaster forms' in the aftermath of mass extinctions accurately describes the response following the Late Devonian and end-Permian events, and this may be because each is marked by the reduction of reef communities in addition to a suppression of bioturbation related to the development of shallow-water anoxia.     

Terrestrial Ecology around the Permian–Triassic Boundary

Permian–Triassic event is usually regarded as the greatest mass extinction in the Earth’s history, although detailed studies have shown that it was not very severe. Localities of fossil insects in European Russia, Tunguska and Kuznetsk basins, and Mongolia provide a unique (the best in the world) opportunity to study the preparation, course of the crisis, and restoration of the biota after it. It is generally believed that climatic changes causing the crisis resulted from eruption of the Siberian traps, so that localities of intertrappean deposits were undoubtedly formed during the crisis. Sedimentation conditions of volcanogenic deposits provide the most detailed time resolution, so that the crisis processes can be investigated in detail. The dynamics of insect diversity in the Paleozoic and basal Mesozoic shows that mass extinctions were absent, although many groups disappeared for some time from the taphonomic window. The crisis events in ecosystems appear earlier than events usually considered as the reason for crisis. The analysis of oryctocoenoses from localities of the intertrappean beds has shown that, during the formation of traps on the mountain plateau, rather diverse ecosystems were retained, including those of the forest formations. They are a source of information, allowing restoration of ecosystems at the end of the Early Triassic.     

The end and the beginning: recoveries from mass extinctions

The evolutionary consequences of mass extinctions depend as much on the processes of survival and recovery following these biotic crises as on the patterns of extinction themselves. Paleontologists are currently documenting biotic recoveries from six major mass extinctions and several smaller biotic crises. Although the immediate responses are remarkably similar after each event, with low-diversity assemblages dominated by widespread, eurytopic species, the recovery response in the long-term is more varied. Lineages that survive the extinction can lack the resilience for recovery, whereas others vanish from the fossil record seemingly to return from the dead after several million years.     

More losers than winners: investigating Anthropocene defaunation through the diversity of population trends

The global-scale decline of animal biodiversity (‘defaunation’) represents one of the most alarming consequences of human impacts on the planet. The quantification of this extinction crisis has traditionally relied on the use of IUCN Red List conservation categories assigned to each assessed species. This approach reveals that a quarter of the world's animal species are currently threatened with extinction, and ~1% have been declared extinct. However, extinctions are preceded by progressive population declines through time that leave demographic ‘footprints’ that can alert us about the trajectories of species towards extinction. Therefore, an exclusive focus on IUCN conservation categories, without consideration of dynamic population trends, may underestimate the true extent of the processes of ongoing extinctions across nature. In fact, emerging evidence (e.g. the Living Planet Report), reveals a widespread tendency for sustained demographic declines (an average 69% decline in population abundances) of species globally. Yet, animal species are not only declining. Many species worldwide exhibit stable populations, while others are even thriving. Here, using population trend data for >71,000 animal species spanning all five groups of vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fishes) and insects, we provide a comprehensive global-scale assessment of the diversity of population trends across species undergoing not only declines, but also population stability and increases. We show a widespread global erosion of species, with 48% undergoing declines, while 49% and 3% of species currently remain stable or are increasing, respectively. Geographically, we reveal an intriguing pattern similar to that of threatened species, whereby declines tend to concentrate around tropical regions, whereas stability and increases show a tendency to expand towards temperate climates. Importantly, we find that for species currently classed by the IUCN Red List as ‘non-threatened’, 33% are declining. Critically, in contrast with previous mass extinction events, our assessment shows that the Anthropocene extinction crisis is undergoing a rapid biodiversity imbalance, with levels of declines (a symptom of extinction) greatly exceeding levels of increases (a symptom of ecological expansion and potentially of evolution) for all groups. Our study contributes a further signal indicating that global biodiversity is entering a mass extinction, with ecosystem heterogeneity and functioning, biodiversity persistence, and human well-being under increasing threat.     

Distinguishing Extinction and Natural Selection in the Anthropocene: Preventing the Panda Paradox through Practical Education Measures

In the midst of only the 6th mass extinction in the Earth's history, we must rethink how we teach evolution to prevent natural selection from being incorrectly used as a biological justification for inaction in the face of today's human-caused mass extinction crisis. Pundits, policy makers, and the general public regularly identify the extinction of endangered species as natural selection at work, rather than attributing modern-day extinction to the sudden catastrophic bad luck of human caused environmental change, a phenomenon distinct from natural selection. In this natural selection framing, the inability of species to survive in human altered environments is the normal progression of “survival of the fittest” and conservation measures designed to protect species is human interference with natural selection. Paradoxically, this erroneous framing of extinction as the normal course of natural selection ignores humanity's exceptional role in causing today's mass extinction crisis. Our examination of this issue in U.S. college students indicates that it arises from misunderstanding the role of extinction in the history of life, leading us to recommend a greater teaching emphasis on the distinction between extinction and natural selection, and on past mass extinction events. Also see the video abstract here https://youtu.be/29VRyirMdiw     

Did incumbency play a role in maintaining boundaries between Late Ordovician brachiopod realms?

Studies of ecosystem level changes in the geological record have found that the major extinction events eliminated many incumbent clades that had been ecologically dominant for long intervals. Surviving clades that had not been able to compete with the extinct incumbents were then able to evolve adaptations that allowed them to move into the niches vacated by the incumbents. Underlying this pattern is the inability of clades that do not occupy a particular niche to evolve adaptations that would permit them to compete with incumbent clades that are already successfully occupying that niche. The zoogeographic distributions of brachiopods in the Late Ordovician of Laurentia may also have been maintained by incumbency, which was disrupted by the end-Ordovician extinction event. Following the extinction event, an Early Silurian zoogeographic reorganization occurred, during which surviving clades evolved into the vacated epeiric sea niches in the Early Silurian. Just as incumbency plays a role in long-term evolutionary patterns, zoogeographic realms and provinces are also partially maintained by incumbency.