The causes of the decline in fecundability with age

Abstract

Demographers have frequently suggested that women's fecundability reaches a maximum some time in their twenties and thereafter remains at a plateau for some years. Recent work by Bendel and Hua (1978) reinforces the author's previously expressed suspicion that this theory is incorrect. The present note is an effort to synthesize current knowledge about the variation with age of the reproductive parameters underlying fecundability. It is suggested (1) that the major cause of the decline in fecundability across ages 20–40 is a decline in coital rates, and (2) that a smaller part of the decline in fecundability is caused by a rise in risk of unrecognized spontaneous abortion. It is concluded that the “biological capacity to conceive” does not vary much during ages 20–40.     

Aboveground net primary production decline with stand age: potential causes

Aboveground net primary production (ANPP) commonly reaches a maximum in young forest stands and decreases by 0-76% as stands mature. However, the mechanism(s) responsible for the decline are not well understood. Current hypotheses for declining ANPP with stand age include: (1) an altered balance between photosynthetic and respiring tissues, (2) decreasing soil nutrient availability, and (3) increasing stomatal limitation leading to reduced photosynthetic rates. Recent empirical and modeling studies reveal that mechanisms (2) and (3) are largely responsible for age-related decline in ANPP for forests in cold environments. Increasing respiratory costs appear to be relatively unimportant in explaining declining productivity in ageing stands.     

Functional decline in old age

Functional decline is a common condition, occurring each year in nearly 12% of Canadians 75 years of age and older. The model of functional health proposed by the World Health Organization (WHO) represents a useful theoretical framework and is the basis for the SMAF (Système de measure de l''autonomie fonctionelle or Functional Autonomy Measurement System), an instrument that measures functional autonomy. The functional decline syndrome, in which functional autonomy is diminished or lost, may present as an acute condition, i.e., a medical emergency for which the patient must be admitted to a geriatric assessment unit. The subacute form is a more insidious condition in which the patient requires comprehensive assessment and a rehabilitation program. A preventive approach based on screening of those at risk and early intervention should prevent or delay the appearance of functional decline or diminish its consequences. Effective strategies for the prevention of or rehabilitation from functional decline will help reduce the incidence of disabilities and the period of dependence near the end of life. These strategies are absolute prerequisites for controlling sociohealth expenses and, most importantly, for allowing people to live independently in old age.     

Liver mitochondrial respiratory functions decline with age

Human liver mitochondrial respiration rates in Chinese populations of various ages were assayed with an oxygraph. In this study, State 3 and State 4 respiration rates, respiratory control ratio (RCR), and ADP/O ratio were measured for 35 Chinese subjects of 31 to 76 years old. We found a significant negative correlation between age and respiratory control and ADP/O ratios tested. Moreover, the respiratory control and ADP/O ratios decreased with the increase of age. These findings suggest that a substantial fall in mitochondrial oxidative capacity in ageing liver may be an important contributor to the ageing process.     

The age pattern of fecundability: an analysis of French Canadian and Hutterite birth histories

This paper analyzes the age pattern of effective fecundability from populations with no evidence of deliberate fertility control using a new convolution model of fecundability. The analysis is based on a sample of Hutterite birth histories from the mid-20th century, and birth histories of French Canadians from the 17th and 18th centuries. The main findings are as follows: 1) the level of effective fecundability is higher among the French Canadians compared to the Hutterites; 2) effective fecundability peaks at age 20 for the Hutterites, and in the early to mid-20s for the French Canadians; 3) Hutterite effective fecundability declines almost linearly from age 20 to 45, and French Canadian effective fecundability declines slowly from its peak to the early 30s, and more rapidly at older ages; and 4) the duration of postpartum amenorrhea is longer for the French Canadians than for the Hutterites. Because of the shorter periods of postpartum amenorrhea the Hutterites have about the same average number of children as the French Canadians, even though the French Canadians have higher effective fecundability.     

Urban densification causes the decline of ground-dwelling arthropods

Urban densification is often considered has a green planning policy. However, its effects on woodland arthropods have been rarely analysed. To fill this gap, a multi-taxa approach using three ground-dwelling arthropod assemblages was conducted on 11 woodlands located along an urbanisation gradient. The gradient range from rural areas to one of the most urbanized cities in the world: Paris (France). Spiders, ground beetles and rove beetles were sampled with pitfall traps. We addressed the two following questions: (i) do the responses to urbanisation differ between taxa and/or between trait groups (habitat affinity to woodlands and dispersal capability) along the gradient? (ii) do the richness and abundance show a linear or an intermediate response? Our results showed a replacement of forest and non-flying species by generalist species and flying species with an increasing level of urbanisation. In term of species richness and abundance, the response varied between taxonomical and also trait groups. Some groups showed a strong linear decrease like forest carabids but other groups like spiders showed maximum values at intermediate levels of urbanisation. However, after a threshold of 70 % of built-in area, urbanisation negatively affected the species richness of all taxa and almost all trait groups, with a stronger effect on forest species. We suggest that the urban densification strongly impacted the assemblages of ground-dwelling arthropods by modifying both landscape and local properties of woodlands. To be considered as a green planning policy, the deleterious effects of urban densification should be mitigated.     

Iron accumulation with age, oxidative stress and functional decline

Identification of biological mediators in sarcopenia is pertinent to the development of targeted interventions to alleviate this condition. Iron is recognized as a potent pro-oxidant and a catalyst for the formation of reactive oxygen species in biological systems. It is well accepted that iron accumulates with senescence in several organs, but little is known about iron accumulation in muscle and how it may affect muscle function. In addition, it is unclear if interventions which reduced age-related loss of muscle quality, such as calorie restriction, impact iron accumulation. We investigated non-heme iron concentration, oxidative stress to nucleic acids in gastrocnemius muscle and key indices of sarcopenia (muscle mass and grip strength) in male Fischer 344 X Brown Norway rats fed ad libitum (AL) or a calorie restricted diet (60% of ad libitum food intake starting at 4 months of age) at 8, 18, 29 and 37 months of age. Total non-heme iron levels in the gastrocnemius muscle of AL rats increased progressively with age. Between 29 and 37 months of age, the non-heme iron concentration increased by approximately 200% in AL-fed rats. Most importantly, the levels of oxidized RNA in gastrocnemius muscle of AL rats were significantly increased as well. The striking age-associated increase in non-heme iron and oxidized RNA levels and decrease in sarcopenia indices were all attenuated in the calorie restriction (CR) rats. These findings strongly suggest that the age-related iron accumulation in muscle contributes to increased oxidative damage and sarcopenia, and that CR effectively attenuates these negative effects.     

DNA repair in cultured human fibroblasts does not decline with donor age

Human fibroblasts from young (3 days to 3 years) and old (84–94 years) donors were tested for their ability to repair DNA damage by measuring survival of colony formation following irradiation with ultraviolet (UV) light. Repair was also measured by the ability to reactivate herpes simplex virus following treatment of the virus with UV light, methyl methane sulfonate or 4,5′,8-trimethylpsoralen plus light. This virus was used as a probe of cellular repair capacity because survival of damaged virus is lower in repair-deficient cell lines [1]. Cell lines from both age groups exhibited comparable survivals following UV irradiation and failed to show increased sensitivity to irradiation in the presence of caffeine. Cells from both groups repaired damaged virus to equal extents. Proficient viral repair was observed under conditions in which cells were infected by either single or multiple viral genomes. These results suggest that DNA repair mechanisms which act on a variety of lesions (e.g. pyrimidine dimers, apurinic sites, alkylated bases, cross-links, etc.) do not decline with age. A model for biological aging resulting from the accumulation with age of unrepaired DNA damage is discussed.     

Possible causes of the physiological decline in soybean nitrogen fixation in the presence of nitrate

Nodulated soybean plants (Glycine max (L.) Merr. cv. Clarke)were supplied with 10 mol m^-3 nitrate at the vegetative stage.This treatment caused a rapid decline in nitrogen fixation (acetylenereduction) activity and a consequent decline in ureides in thexylem sap. However, there was virtually no effect on the nitrogenasecomplex, according to Western blots against components 1 and2. The effect on nitrogen fixation was matched by a decreasein nitrogenase-linked respiration and increases in nodule oxygendiffusion resistance and the carbon cost of nitrogen fixation.The addition of nitrate had little effect on protein contentfrom either nodule plant or bacteroid fractions. Activitiesof nitrate reductase (NR) and nitrite reductase (NiR) from eitherthe plant fraction or the bacteroids were affected in differentways during 8 d of supply. Nodule plant NR and bacteroid NiR were not affected. However,nodule plant NiR increased 5-fold within 2 d of supplying Bacteroid NR only increased after6 d. These results could be interpreted in terms of a restrictednitrate access into the infected region of nodules. However,denitrification was detected within 2 d of nitrate supply insoybean nodules. The results are discussed in relation to possiblecauses of the nitrate-induced decline in nitrogenase activity. Key words: Glycine max, nitrate, nitrogen fixation, nodules     

Diagnosing the environmental causes of the decline in Grey Partridge Perdix perdix survival in France

We studied Grey Partridge Perdix perdix mortality during breeding to identify the environmental causes of a long‐term decline in adult survival. We radiotagged and monitored daily from mid‐March to mid‐September 1009 females on ten contrasting study sites in 1995‐97. Simultaneously, we recorded habitat features and estimated the abundance of Hen and Marsh Harriers Circus cyaneus and C. aeruginosus Red Fox Vulpes vulpes and mustelids. We experimentally tested whether scavenging could have biased predation rates. We also examined, through the necropsy of 80 carcasses of Grey Partridge, whether disease, parasites or poisoning could have been ultimate causes of high predation rates. The survival rate of radiotagged females during spring and summer ranged from 0.25 to 0.65 across study areas. Mortality peaked in May, June and July when females were laying and incubating. The direct negative impact of farming practices was low (6%). Predation was the main proximate cause of female mortality during breeding (73%) and determined the survival rate, suggesting no compensation by other causes of mortality. Ground carnivores were responsible for 64% of predation cases, and raptors for 29%, but this proportion varied across study sites. Disease and poisoning did not appear to favour predation, and scavenging was not likely to have substantially overestimated predation rates. The predation rate on breeding females was positively correlated with the abundance of Hen and Marsh Harriers, suggesting an additional mortality in areas where harriers were abundant. The proportion of raptor predation was linearly related to harrier abundance. The predation rate was not correlated with the abundance of the Red Fox and mustelids. A potential density‐dependent effect on the predation rate was confounded by the abundance of harriers. We found no convincing relationship between the predation rate and habitat features, but we observed a positive relationship between the abundance of Hen and Marsh Harriers and the mean field size. This suggested that habitat characteristics may contribute to high predation rates through predator abundance or habitat‐dependent predation.     

The beta-geometric distribution applied to comparative fecundability studies

A convenient measure of fecundability is time (number of menstrual cycles) required to achieve pregnancy. Couples attempting pregnancy are heterogeneous in their per-cycle probability of success. If success probabilities vary among couples according to a beta distribution, then cycles to pregnancy will have a beta-geometric distribution. Under this model, the inverse of the cycle-specific conception rate is a linear function of time. Data on cycles to pregnancy can be used to estimate the beta parameters by maximum likelihood in a straightforward manner with a package such as GLIM. The likelihood ratio test can thus be employed in studies of exposures that may impair fecundability. Covariates are incorporated in a natural way. The model is illustrated by applying it to data on cycles to pregnancy in smokers and nonsmokers, with adjustment for covariates. For a cross-sectional study, when length-biased sampling is taken into account, the pre-interview attempt time is shown to follow a beta-geometric distribution, so that the same methods of analysis can be applied even though all of the available data are right-censored. For a cohort followed prospectively, there will be some couples enrolled whose fecundability is effectively 0, and for such applications, the beta could be considered to be contaminated by a distribution degenerate at 0. The mixing parameter (proportion sterile) can be estimated by application of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. This, too, can be carried out using GLIM.     

Drought-induced forest decline: causes, scope and implications

A large number of episodes of forest mortality associated with drought and heat stress have been detected worldwide in recent decades, suggesting that some of the world's forested ecosystems may be already responding to climate change. Here, we summarize a special session titled 'Drought-induced forest decline: causes, scope and implications' within the 12th European Ecological Federation Congress, held in ávila (Spain) from 25 to 29 September 2011. The session focused on the interacting causes and impacts of die-off episodes at the community and ecosystem levels, and highlighted recent events of drought- and heat-related tree decline, advances in understanding mechanisms and in predicting mortality events, and diverse consequences of forest decline. Talks and subsequent discussion noted a potentially important role of carbon that may be interrelated with plant hydraulics in the multi-faceted process leading to drought-induced mortality; a substantial and yet understudied capacity of many forests to cope with extreme climatic events; and the difficulty of separating climate effects from other anthropogenic changes currently shaping forest dynamics in many regions of the Earth. The need for standard protocols and multi-level monitoring programmes to track the spatio-temporal scope of forest decline globally was emphasized as critical for addressing this emerging environmental issue.     

Modelling digit preference in fecundability studies.

Retrospective studies of fecundability, in which women are asked how many cycles they required to become pregnant, are often affected by problems of digit preference. A probability model for such digit preference is proposed in which misreporting favours 6 or 12 (and possibly also 3) cycles. It is assumed that in the absence of misreporting the number of cycles follows a beta-geometric distribution. The model is applied to two data sets, with clear-cut results: The inclusion of additional parameters to model the misreporting can lead to substantial improvements in fit, but causes little change to the estimated parameters of the underlying beta-geometric distribution. In some cases misreporting parameters may be regarded as nuisance parameters, while in others they may be of interest. We have found estimates of these parameters to vary between different categories of women in an interpretable manner. The models may also be used to estimate the percentage of couples in any study that misreport their conception waiting time.     

Primary and secondary causes and consequences of contemporary forest decline

Realization that forest decline (Waldsterben) has become an ecological crisis throughout the developed world has resulted in massive research efforts to determine the causes of declines. It is now recognized that no single causal factor is responsible, but that there are a variety of anthropogenic causal factor complexes interacting with natural events and processes that, together, induce stresses in forests that culminate in declines of individual plants and of ecosystems. It is the thesis of this article that forest declines involve all biotic and abiotic facets and parameters of forested ecosystems and that the declines are themselves new causal factor complexes that continue to affect the stability of forested ecosystems independently of the initial causal factor complexes. Lacking direct field or laboratory studies on these cascades of causes and effects, this article attempts to utilize the growing body of information on plant physiological ecology to provide a heuristic framework for evaluating long-term forest declines.     

Greater rate of decline in maximal aerobic capacity with age in endurance-trained than in sedentary men.

To determine the relation between habitual endurance exercise status and the age-associated decline in maximal aerobic capacity [i.e., maximal O(2) consumption (Vo(2 max))] in men, we performed a well-controlled cross-sectional laboratory study on 153 healthy men aged 20-75 yr: 64 sedentary and 89 endurance trained. Vo(2 max) (ml. kg(-1). min(-1)), measured by maximal treadmill exercise, was inversely related to age in the endurance-trained (r = -0.80) and sedentary (r = -0.74) men but was higher in the endurance-trained men at any age. The rate of decline in Vo(2 max) with age (ml. kg(-1). min(-1)) was greater (P < 0.001) in the endurance-trained than in the sedentary men. Whereas the relative rate of decline in Vo(2 max) (percent decrease per decade from baseline levels in young adulthood) was similar in the two groups, the absolute rate of decline in Vo(2 max) was -5.4 and -3.9 ml. kg(-1). min(-). decade(-1) in the endurance-trained and sedentary men, respectively. Vo(2 max) declined linearly across the age range in the sedentary men but was maintained in the endurance-trained men until approximately 50 yr of age. The accelerated decline in Vo(2 max) after 50 yr of age in the endurance-trained men was related to a decline in training volume (r = 0.46, P < 0.0001) and was associated with an increase in 10-km running time (r = -0.84, P < 0.0001). We conclude that the rate of decline in maximal aerobic capacity during middle and older age is greater in endurance-trained men than in their sedentary peers and is associated with a marked decline in O(2) pulse.     

Demographic and environmental causes of the decline of rural Song Thrushes Turdus philomelos in lowland Britain

We review current knowledge of demographic mechanisms and environmental factors implicated in the population decline of Song Thrushes Turdus philomelos in rural Britain since the mid-1970s, and present new analyses of regional variation in population changes. Increased mortality during the first year of life (from fledging to recruitment) is highlighted as a potential demographic mechanism having driven the population decline, while Song Thrushes in a rapidly declining farmland population were making too few nesting attempts to sustain local numbers. Breeding Song Thrushes are strongly associated with non-cropped habitats such as woodland edge, field boundaries, gardens and scrub; they make substantial use of grassland, but avoid cereals when foraging. Earthworms constitute a key component of Song Thrush diet and the availability of this prey is strongly influenced by moisture levels in surface soils. Several lines of evidence suggest that dry surface soils during summer are deleterious to the productivity and survival of Song Thrushes, and regional variation in the rates of population change in Britain during 1970–86 was negatively correlated with the extent of under-field drainage on farmland (the main function of which is to promote the drying of surface soils). Increasing dryness of agricultural soils and the loss of grassland from eastern arable counties have probably both contributed to the declines of rural Song Thrushes in Britain. Loss of hedgerows and scrub, and the degradation of woodland may also have contributed to population declines but the role of predators remains unclear. Recovery of rural Song Thrush populations requires challenging new policy initiatives that should aim to restore nesting cover (scrub and woodland understorey), grazed grassland in arable-dominated areas and damper soils in summer.