The causes of the decline in fecundability with age

Abstract

Demographers have frequently suggested that women's fecundability reaches a maximum some time in their twenties and thereafter remains at a plateau for some years. Recent work by Bendel and Hua (1978) reinforces the author's previously expressed suspicion that this theory is incorrect. The present note is an effort to synthesize current knowledge about the variation with age of the reproductive parameters underlying fecundability. It is suggested (1) that the major cause of the decline in fecundability across ages 20–40 is a decline in coital rates, and (2) that a smaller part of the decline in fecundability is caused by a rise in risk of unrecognized spontaneous abortion. It is concluded that the “biological capacity to conceive” does not vary much during ages 20–40.     

The age pattern of fecundability: an analysis of French Canadian and Hutterite birth histories

This paper analyzes the age pattern of effective fecundability from populations with no evidence of deliberate fertility control using a new convolution model of fecundability. The analysis is based on a sample of Hutterite birth histories from the mid-20th century, and birth histories of French Canadians from the 17th and 18th centuries. The main findings are as follows: 1) the level of effective fecundability is higher among the French Canadians compared to the Hutterites; 2) effective fecundability peaks at age 20 for the Hutterites, and in the early to mid-20s for the French Canadians; 3) Hutterite effective fecundability declines almost linearly from age 20 to 45, and French Canadian effective fecundability declines slowly from its peak to the early 30s, and more rapidly at older ages; and 4) the duration of postpartum amenorrhea is longer for the French Canadians than for the Hutterites. Because of the shorter periods of postpartum amenorrhea the Hutterites have about the same average number of children as the French Canadians, even though the French Canadians have higher effective fecundability.     

Normative study of age variation in salivary progesterone profiles.

Daily luteal progesterone levels were measured for 124 regularly menstruating women, aged 18-44, by radioimmunoassay of steroid levels in saliva. A consistent pattern of age variation in luteal function was found, with the lowest levels of progesterone in the 18-19-year-old and 40-44-year-old groups, the highest values in the 25-34 year olds, and intermediate values in the 20-24 and 35-39-year-old groups. The striking similarity of this pattern of age variation with empirically and theoretically generated curves of apparent fecundability, suggests that age-related changes in ovarian function may underlie observed age variation in fecundability.     

Age and fertility: can women wait until their early thirties to try for a first birth?

Postponing the start of childbearing raises the question of fertility postponed versus fertility foregone. One of the limitations of previous studies of 'How late can you wait?' is that any observed decline in the probability of conception with age could be due to a decline in fecundability with age or due to a decline in coital frequency with age or due to both factors. Using data from a multinational longitudinal study conducted to determine the daily probability of conception among healthy subjects, a discrete-time event history model with long-term survivors (sterile population) is used to study the relationship between age and fecundability for childless women, while controlling for the pattern of intercourse within a menstrual cycle. The findings suggest that women can wait until their early thirties to try for a first birth, providing that they are not already sterile, as the magnitude of the decline in fecundability is very modest and of little practical importance.     

Change in reductase activity is responsible for senescent decline in sex pheromone titre in the lightbrown apple moth,Epiphyas postvittana (Walker)

Sex pheromone titre in the tortricid moth Epiphyas postvittana follows a pattern commonly observed in other species of moths: an increase to a peak some time after eclosion (2-3days), and then a slow decline as the female ages. Previous work has shown that this decline is not regulated by the pheromone biosynthesis activating neuropeptide PBAN. Using in vivo and in vitro enzyme assays, and fatty acid methyl ester (FAME) analyses of pheromone precursors in the gland, we have investigated this senescent decline in pheromone titre. The enzyme assays have shown that in older females the fatty acid reductase and fatty acid synthesis enzyme systems decrease in activity (relative to younger females), whereas other enzyme systems involved in pheromone biosynthesis, including limited beta-oxidation (2-carbon chain-shortening), (E)-11-desaturation, and acetylation (by an acetyl transferase) remain unchanged in their activity. Of the two enzymatic processes involved, the more important one contributing to the decline appears to be the fatty acid reductase. This is consistent with FAME analyses of pheromone glands in old and young females, which show little difference in levels of saturated FAME, but a significant increase in the level of the putative precursor, (E)-11-tetradecenoate, of the sex pheromone component (E)-11-tetradecenyl acetate. Thus, this decline in fatty acid reductase activity results in a buildup of the precursor as the female ages. The near ubiquity of fatty acid reductases in moth sex pheromone systems suggests that this may be a common mechanism for the senescent decline of sex pheromone titre in moths.     

岷江上游林线附近岷江冷杉种群的生存分析

岷江冷杉 (Abiesfaxoniana) 林是青藏高原东南缘亚高山暗针叶林的主要类型之一, 在岷江上游地区, 岷江冷杉林一般在 2 80 0~ 380 0m之间呈带状分布并且在阴坡形成林线。为了对岷江上游林线地段的岷江冷杉种群进行生存分析, 在岷江上游林线附近弓杠岭 (33°0 2′39″N, 10 3°4 3′11″E) 设置了 10个样地, 使用侧生轮枝计数或WinDENDRO系统对个体年龄进行确定。调查数据经匀滑技术处理, 编制了岷江冷杉种群特定时间生命表, 绘制了岷江冷杉种群的存活曲线、死亡率曲线和消失率曲线。结果表明:1) 岷江上游林线地段岷江冷杉种群存活曲线趋于Deevey_Ⅲ型。 2) 林线地段岷江冷杉种群生存率呈单调下降趋势, 生存率下降趋势前期高于后期, 说明岷江冷杉种群幼苗死亡率高, 种群后期比较稳定。3) 林线地段岷江冷杉林整个生长期中出现了两个死亡高峰期, 一个出现在幼苗向幼树过渡时期 (0~ 4 0年), 另一个出现在中龄时期 (180年) 。岷江上游林线地段岷江冷杉种群幼苗死亡率较高的原因可能和林线地段的温度较低、积雪厚度、风向、水分等环境条件有关。     

Studies of fertility and fecundity: comparative approaches from demography and epidemiology

The approaches used by demographers and by epidemiologists for studying the fecundity of couples (i.e. their ability to conceive) have converged, whereas they were historically divergent. Demography traditionally focused on fertility - the circumstances in which livebirths occur - with the aim of predicting population changes, in particular. Demographers also rapidly became interested in fecundity, developing concepts such as fecundability and definitive sterility. The measurement of fecundability is based on determination of the time to pregnancy (TTP), the basic tool of the epidemiologist. However, while demographers were developing methods for estimating the distribution of fecundability among couples based on TTP, epidemiologists turned to methods for analysing the role of diverse factors potentially influencing fecundity at the individual level.     

Phyllotaxis in the Oil Palm: Arrangement of Fronds on the Trunk of Mature Palms

Estimates of Equivalent Phyllotaxis Index—E.P.I.—arepresented for palms of various ages, measuring the arrangementof fronds on the cylindrical trunk. It is contended that accurateE.P.I. estimates can most readily be obtained from the trunksof older (20-year) palms where the fronds have sloughed offleaving clear scars. The technique is thus in contrast withprevious work in this species and so are some of the resultsobtained. Measures of E.P.I. decrease further up the trunk—correspondingit is suggested to an increase in the ratio of longitudinalto radial growth-rates. Various internal and external competitivestress situations are invoked to account for this phenomenon.The values for E.P.I. are interpreted in terms of Fibonacciparastichies and also in terms of some growth-rate parameterestimates.     

Calcium-induced changes in bilayer membranes from oxidized cholesterol

Elastic properties of oxidized cholesterol bilayers in n-octane and membrane solvent free were studied by measuring Young modulus E perpendicular in the direction perpendicular to the membrane plane as a function of concentration of calcium ions. Interaction between calcium ions and solvent free bilayers resulted in a significant increases of Young modulus E perpendicular in the concentration range 20-40 mmol/l Ca2+. It is suggested that the hardening of the membrane is caused by some structural changes in the hydrophobic region of the membrane.     

The one-child family: international patterns and their implications for the People's Republic of China

China's Campaign for 1-child families began in 1979 with the goal of limiting its population to 1.2 billion by the year 2000. The 1982 Census indicates that almost 1/2 the mothers between 20 and 29 had had only 1 child. The campaign has aroused considerable interest worldwide because most studies of 1-child families have been based on small samples, often in the US. This study compares the general rates of 1 child families in China and 60 other countries. Data were gathered from national censuses, UN demographic yearbooks, and some World Fertility Surveys and other sources. China's current 1-child family rate (12.5%) is relatively low compared with some developed countries, e.g. Hungary (25.0%), and the US (17.1%). 80% of countries have rates in the 10.0%-19.9% range. For less developed countries (LDCs), rates increase rapidly to age 20-24, declining slowly until age 40. Chinese rates are slightly less at most ages than the average LDC. In more developed countries, the decline begins after age group 25-29. The difference is likely to be due to the later age of marriage and longer birth intervals of women in the developed countries. The % of completed single child families (indicated by rates for women in their later reproductive years) for China are quite low compared to the other developing and developed countries. Despite publicity surrounding the China campaign, China has a considerable distance to go to approach developed nations such as Hungary and Romania.     

How does variation in fetal loss affect the distribution of waiting times to conception?

Abstract

Unmeasured variation has long been a concern in analyses of the waiting time to conception. Recent work by Heckman and Walker (1991) and Trussell and Rodriguez (1990) has underscored the fact that statistical considerations alone cannot discriminate among likely models describing the distribution. Here, we specify a single theoretically important source of heterogeneity, namely variability in intrauterine mortality, and assess its effects on the waiting times to a conception which results in a live birth. We find that the effects of variation in fetal loss are confined to the tail of the distribution. Unless variation in fetal loss is extremely large or a substantial proportion of observed waiting times are initiated at late ages, variation in fetal loss does not appear to explain much variation in conception waits. We conclude that heterogeneity in fetal loss does not explain the variation in fecundability that has been observed for first birth intervals. This conclusion supports the hypothesis that at early ages (below age 35) variation in the waiting time to a fertile conception may largely reflect the proportion of nonsusceptible couples in the population. The analyses suggest that for the purposes of testing theoretically motivated models, future efforts should be directed toward examining reproductive experience after age 35 and toward incorporating information on characteristics of the fertile period as it becomes known.     

Protein synthesis in tomato-fruit locule tissue: Incorporation of amino acids into protein by aseptic cell-free systems

1. Osmotically disrupted protoplasts and isolated plastids from tomato-fruit locule tissue were found capable of incorporating (14)C-labelled amino acids under aseptic conditions into an exhaustively washed trichloroacetic acid-insoluble protein fraction. 2. The disrupted protoplast system incorporated 20-45mumumoles of amino acid/mg. of protein in 10min. The isolated plastid system incorporated 10-20mumumoles of amino acid/mg. of protein; 40-150mumug. of carbon/mg. of protein was incorporated in 10min. from (14)C-labelled amino acid mixture. 3. Incorporation is stimulated by added ATP in the dark, but no added ATP is required when the system is illuminated. The cell-free plastid system is to some extent self-sufficient and does not normally require an added supernatant fraction or unlabelled amino acids. 4. Amino acid incorporation by plastids is inhibited by chloramphenicol, puromycin, actinomycin D, ribonuclease and deoxyribonuclease. It is suggested that the mechanism of protein synthesis in the cell-free plastids, and in the tissue generally, is basically the same as established for bacteria. Ribosomes and highspeed supernatant from this tissue were to some extent interchangeable with Escherichia coli ribosomes and supernatant in cell-free incubations. 5. Incorporation of amino acids by isolated plastids was stimulated by indol-3-ylacetic acid and kinetin, and, whereas incorporation normally proceeds for only 10-20min., the time-course was extended in the presence of these growth substances. It is suggested that hormones may be involved in the regulation of protein synthesis in plants.     

LDH isoenzyme pattern, lactate/pyruvate, and ultrastructure of fibrinogenic and epithelial cell lines exposed to 3% oxygen

Human diploid fibroblast WI38 and canine epithelial MDCK cells were incubated in an environment flushed continuously for 96 h with 3% and 20% oxygen. Lactate and pyruvate formation and LDH isoenzyme patterns of cells in logarithmic and stationary phases showed characteristic differences between both cell lines. Lactate formation by WI38 cells at 3% oxygen was considerable within the first 18 h. The MDCK cells responded with an even greater lactate formation only after 18 h.The dynamics of LDH isoenzyme changes measured as H/M subunits revealed for WI38 cells a sharp decline after 40 h at 3% oxygen in both logarithmic and confluent stages. MDCK cells show a sharp decline in H/M during the first 40 h (confluent phase) or 20 h (log phase). No changes in either cell line, regardless of the oxygen environment, were seen in the ultrastructure of cells, as seen by transmission electron microscopy. It is suggested that the fibroblast, being better equipped for anaerobic metabolism, quickly produces more lactate without changing the LDH isoenzyme pattern at 3% oxygen. Epithelial cells react first with a modification in the LDH pattern and then a continuous increase in the formation of lactate to very high values.     

The beta-geometric distribution applied to comparative fecundability studies

A convenient measure of fecundability is time (number of menstrual cycles) required to achieve pregnancy. Couples attempting pregnancy are heterogeneous in their per-cycle probability of success. If success probabilities vary among couples according to a beta distribution, then cycles to pregnancy will have a beta-geometric distribution. Under this model, the inverse of the cycle-specific conception rate is a linear function of time. Data on cycles to pregnancy can be used to estimate the beta parameters by maximum likelihood in a straightforward manner with a package such as GLIM. The likelihood ratio test can thus be employed in studies of exposures that may impair fecundability. Covariates are incorporated in a natural way. The model is illustrated by applying it to data on cycles to pregnancy in smokers and nonsmokers, with adjustment for covariates. For a cross-sectional study, when length-biased sampling is taken into account, the pre-interview attempt time is shown to follow a beta-geometric distribution, so that the same methods of analysis can be applied even though all of the available data are right-censored. For a cohort followed prospectively, there will be some couples enrolled whose fecundability is effectively 0, and for such applications, the beta could be considered to be contaminated by a distribution degenerate at 0. The mixing parameter (proportion sterile) can be estimated by application of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. This, too, can be carried out using GLIM.     

外生菌根真菌对科尔沁沙地樟子松人工林衰退的影响

通过对科尔沁沙地东南缘樟子松人工林气温、地温及樟子松人工林根系分布的观测,从温度对外生菌根菌存活与生长影响的角度分析了沙地樟子松人工林衰退的现象,结果表明：由于沙地表层土壤（0～5cm）高温环境,外生菌根菌无法存活;在沙地20～40cm土层内,温度条件有利于外生菌根菌的存活、生长,而13～42年生沙地樟子松人工林树木平均78％的根系分布于该层,说明外生菌根菌的存在阻止或延缓了樟子松人工林的生长衰退,不是导致沙地樟子松人工林枯叶、枯梢、枯枝、死亡的原因．表层土壤外生菌根菌的缺乏使萌发的幼苗不能形成有效根系是导致沙地樟子松人工林不能天然更新的主要原因之一．     

Plasma norepinephrine and muscle sympathetic discharge during rhythmic exercise in humans

The purpose of this study was to examine the relationship between plasma norepinephrine concentrations (PNE) and efferent muscle sympathetic nerve activity to noncontracting muscle (MSNA) during graded, rhythmic exercise in humans. In the initial study, six healthy men (ages 20-30 yr) performed 2-min bouts of two-arm cycling exercise at power outputs of 0, 10, 20, 40, 60 (n = 6), and 80 (n = 3) W. Heart rate (HR) was recorded and intraneural measurements of MSNA (right peroneal nerve) were made continuously for 2 min before (control) and during exercise at each work load. At least 2 wk later, subjects performed the same exercise bouts at which time HR was measured and a venous (forearm) blood sample was obtained for the subsequent determination of PNE by high-performance liquid chromatography. During exercise, HR increased progressively from 0 to 80 W. Neither MSNA nor PNE increased above control in response to arm cycling at 0, 10, and 20 W [0-16 +/- 1% (SE) of peak work load], but both variables increased progressively at the 40-, 60-, and 80-W (33 +/- 1 to 67 +/- 2% of peak work load) levels (all P less than 0.05). The individual MSNA and PNE responses (% change from control) over the six work loads were directly related (r = 0.80, P less than 0.001).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

A significant age shift of the human parvovirus B19 antibody prevalence among young adults in Japan observed in a decade.

A seroepidemiological study on human parvovirus (B19) in Japan was undertaken with serum samples randomly collected from healthy Japanese populations (416 in 1973, 675 in 1984 and 508 in 1987/88). All samples were tested for anti-B19 IgG antibody by the indirect antigen-capture ELISA. The antibody prevalence for ages 0-9 years old in 1984 was significantly higher (16%) than that in 1973 (2%), whereas those for ages 20-29 years and 30-39 years were significantly lower in 1984 (20% and 56%) than in 1973 (67% and 80%) (p < 0.005). After the erythema infectiosum (EI) outbreak in 1986/87, the antibody prevalences for ages 5-9, 10-14 and 15-19 years were 40-85% in Fukuoka, 0-10% in Gunma, and 21-41% in Chiba reflecting each EI incidence in these three prefectures, whereas those for ages 20-29 years remained low (< 20%). These data indicate that B19 virus was transmitted mainly among children and no significant incidence of B19 virus infection in adults has occurred since 1973, resulting in a notable shifting of B19 susceptibility toward older ages including child-bearing females.     

The influence of force and circulation on average muscle fibre conduction velocity during local muscle fatigue

Two series of experiments were performed to examine the relationship between force and change in average muscle fibre conduction velocity (MFCV) during local muscle fatigue. The average MFCV was estimated using the cross-correlation method. In the first experiment this relationship was studied with surface EMG of vastus lateralis at force levels from 10 to 100% of maximal voluntary contraction (MVC) with and without occluded circulation. The product of relative force and time was held constant. At 10-20% MVC, MFCV increased slightly under the 2 conditions. Between 30-40% MVC, MFCV decreased, this decline in conduction velocity being significantly greater with occluded circulation. Above 40% MVC the decline in MFCV was larger at higher forces, but without any differences between the ischaemic and non-ischaemic conditions. In the second experiment the relationship between change in force and MFCV was studied during sustained maximal voluntary contractions of biceps brachii. MFCV declined during the first 26-39 s of the contraction, followed by an increase. Since this increase occurred when the force had dropped to 30-50% of the initial maximal force, a partial restoration of blood flow is thought to be responsible for this phenomenon. Because an increase in MFCV was noted, despite a further decline in force, this implies that at high force levels the change in MFCV during fatigue could partly be caused by mechanisms different from those accounting for the force loss. It is concluded that above 40% MVC intramuscular pressure is sufficiently high to cause ischaemia, and MFCV is found to be very sensitive to changes in intramuscular blood flow.     

Decline with age in the rate of reduction of progesterone to 20 alpha-hydroxypregn-4-en-3-one in the blood of perinatal ruminants

The activity of the enzyme 20 alpha-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase present in erythrocytes of foetal and new-born ruminants has been determined by incubating 0.1 ml blood with 0.16 mumol [4-14C]-progesterone for 15 min at 39 degrees C in a final volume of 2 ml buffered saline. It was found that the activity, measured as mumol 20 alpha-hydroxypregn-4-en-3-one produced from progesterone per millilitre of erythrocytes per hour, declined from levels at birth as high as 1.50 mumol for sheep, 0.50 mumol for goats and 0.43 mumol for cattle to levels of around 0.11, 0.08 and 0.04 mumol respectively by 30-60 days of age. This decline in activity was also apparent in blood taken from sheep foetuses in which longitudinal studies were possible and appeared to have begun prior to 35 days before term. The highest activity obtained was 2.59 mumol for foetal sheep blood taken at 115 days of gestation. It is suggested that the observed decline in 20 alpha-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase activity is a function of the replacement of foetal erythrocytes with adult-type erythrocytes which begins around 120 days of gestational age and that the role of the enzyme is to maintain an appropriate progestational environment within the foetoplacental unit.