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1.
热带亚热带退化生态系统的恢复与复合农林业   总被引:15,自引:3,他引:12  
我国热带亚热带是人口和环境压力最大的区域之一。原有自然生态系统遭到很大的破坏,退化生态系统大面积增加,这是严重制约农业生产发展的重要因素。长期的恢复生态学定点研究表明,通过综合整治,使退化生态系统得以恢复与重建,具有重大的生态效益、经济效益和社会效益。在丘陵山区进行退化生态系统的恢复与重建实践中所构建的“林果草(牧)鱼”复合生态系统,是高产、高质、高效的复合农林业模式,是促进地方农业经济发展的有效途径。  相似文献   

2.
Forest loss and degradation are the most significant threats to terrestrial biodiversity in the tropics. Promoting flagship or umbrella species is a strategy that can be used to conserve intact forests and restore degraded ecosystems, conserve biodiversity, and achieve sustainable development goals. The Bale monkey (Chlorocebus djamdjamensis) is an arboreal, forest-dwelling, threatened primate restricted to a small range in the southern Ethiopian Highlands, which relies mostly on a single species of bamboo (Arundinaria alpina) and prefers bamboo forest habitat. Most of the Bale monkey’s range lies outside protected areas and most of its historical bamboo forest habitat is degraded or destroyed. The conservation of Bale monkeys and bamboo is highly inter-dependent; however, the value of using the Bale monkey as a flagship or umbrella species for forest restoration has not been evaluated. Here we use geographic range overlap and geospatial modeling to evaluate Bale monkeys as a flagship and/or umbrella species. We also assess if conservation intervention on behalf of Bale monkeys can help restore bamboo forest, while simultaneously providing a wide range of socioeconomic and environmental benefits. We found that Bale monkeys share their range with 52 endemic and/or threatened vertebrate species and at least 9 endemic and/or threatened plant species. Our results show that Bale monkeys meet both the flagship and umbrella species criteria to restore bamboo forest and conserve threatened co-occurring species. Since bamboo is fast-growing and can be harvested every year, we suggest that a science-based sustainable harvest and management regime for bamboo would help to improve the livelihood of both the local community and Ethiopians in general without significantly affecting the long-term survival of Bale monkeys and regional biodiversity. Further, a conservation management strategy protecting and restoring bamboo forest has the potential to achieve at least six of the 17 United Nations Sustainable Development Goals.  相似文献   

3.
Forest management today often seeks to restore ecological integrity and enhance human well‐being by increasing forest complexity, resilience, and functionality. However, effective and financially expedient monitoring of forest complexity is challenging. In this study, we developed a practical and inexpensive technique to measure horizontal forest complexity. This monitoring method uses intuitively understandable data (imagery) and facilitates stakeholder participation in the adaptive management process within collaborative projects. We used this technique to determine if current restoration projects are successfully achieving their spatial restoration goals. We focused on the Colorado Front Range Landscape Restoration Initiative (CFRLRI) as a representative of the typical collaborative restoration projects underway in formerly fire‐dependent dry conifer forests. The developed monitoring method is practical and cost‐effective by using free aerial imagery to map, quantify, and analyze the distribution of canopy cover pre‐ and post‐treatment. We found the CFRLRI has successfully reduced canopy cover (from 44 to 26% on average) and increased some aspects of horizontal forest complexity. The application of these monitoring techniques has allowed the CFRLRI collaborative group to objectively quantify changes to horizontal forest complexity, and has facilitated stakeholder communication about forest spatial patterns. These methods could be adapted for use by other similar forest restoration projects around the world by utilizing increasingly available satellite or aerial imagery.  相似文献   

4.
Rehabilitation of Tropical Lands: A Key to Sustaining Development   总被引:10,自引:0,他引:10  
Land rehabilitation is proposed as a management strategy to reverse the negative consequences of tropical deforestation and land degradation. We first define the concepts associated with ecosystem modification—conversion, damage, and degradation—and those associated with ecosystem repair—restoration, rehabilitation, and reclamation. We then present a scheme of sustainable land use in the tropics, with illustrations of how rehabilitation and restoration activities fit into the overall scheme of the use of land. Because damaged lands cannot contribute effectively to sustained economic development, land rehabilitation is a necessary step for increasing the chances of attaining sustainability. Approaches for rehabilitating ecosystems are discussed, including the management of stressors and subsidies in relation to their point of interaction in the ecosystem. Finally, we illustrate the concepts of ecosystem rehabilitation of damaged, degraded, and derelict lands with examples of case studies from dry to humid life zones in island and continental situations throughout the tropics. The case studies demonstrate that opportunities for success exist, even with severely degraded lands, but a considerable amount of research remains to be done before we have a full understanding of the complexity of the task facing us.  相似文献   

5.
Vegetation surveys were carried out at 24 sampling stations distributed over four land use types, namely near-primary forest, secondary forest, agroforestry systems and annual crop lands in the northeastern part of the Korup region, Cameroon, to assess the impact of forest conversion on trees and understorey plants. Tree species richness decreased significantly with increasing level of habitat modification, being highest and almost equal in secondary and near-primary forests. Understorey plant species richness was significantly higher in annual crop lands than in other land use types. The four land use types differed in tree and understorey plant species composition, the difference being smaller among natural forests. Tree and understorey plant density differed significantly between habitat types. Density was strongly correlated with species richness, both for trees and understorey plants. Five tree and 15 understorey plant species showed significant responses to habitat. A 90% average drop in tree basal area from forest to farmland was registered. Our findings support the view that agroforestry systems with natural shade trees can serve to protect many forest species, but that especially annual crop lands could be redesigned to improve biodiversity conservation in agricultural landscapes of tropical rainforest regions.  相似文献   

6.
Contrary to expectations, some human-modified landscapes are considered to sustain both human activities and biodiversity over the long-term. Agroforestry systems are among these landscapes where crops are planted under native shade trees. In this context, ancient agroforestry systems can provide insight into how farmers managed the landscape over time. Such insight can help to quantify the extent to which tropical forests (especially habitat-specialist trees) are responding to local and landscape-level management. Here, we extracted fossil pollen (indicator of past vegetation changes) and macroscopic charcoal (indicator of biomass burning) from four forest hollows’ sedimentary sequences in an ancient agroforestry system in Western Ghats, India. We used a mixed-modelling approach and a principal components analysis (PCA) to determine past trajectories of forest change and species composition dynamics for the last 900 years. In addition, we reconstructed the long-term forest canopy dynamics and examined the persistence of habitat-specialist trees over time. Our results show that the four sites diverged to a surprising degree in both taxa composition and dynamics. However, despite these differences, forest has persisted over 900 years under agricultural activities within agroforestry systems. This long-term analysis highlights the importance of different land-use legacies as a framework to increase the effectiveness of management across tropical agricultural lands.  相似文献   

7.
The concurrent discussions of landscape scale restoration among restoration ecologists, and of historic disturbance pattern as a guideline for forest management among forest scientists, offer a unique opportunity for collaboration between these traditionally separated fields. The objective of this study was to review the environmental history, early restoration projects, and current plans to restore landscape patterns at broader scales in the 450,000 ha northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens. The Pine Barrens offer an example of a landscape shaped by fire in the past. In northwestern Wisconsin historically the barrens were a mosaic of open prairie, savanna, and pine forests on very poor, sandy soils. The surrounding region of better soils was otherwise heavily forested. Six restoration sites have been managed since the middle of this century using prescribed burns to maintain the open, barrens habitat. However, these sites are not extensive enough to mimic the shifting mosaic of large open patches previously created by fire. Extensive clear‐cuts may be used as a substitute for these large fire patches so that presettlement landscape patterns are more closely approximated in the current landscape. We suggest that such silvicultural treatments can be suitable to restore certain aspects of presettlement landscapes, such as landscape pattern and open habitat for species such as grassland birds. We are aware that the effects of fire and clear‐cuts differ in many aspects and additional management tools, such as prescribed burning after harvesting, may assist in further approximating the effect of natural disturbance. However, the restoration of landscape pattern using clear‐cuts may provide an important context for smaller isolated restoration sites even without the subsequent application of fire, in this formerly more open landscape.  相似文献   

8.
There is compelling evidence for positive effects of plant diversity on the functioning of forests and agroecosystems. This information is increasingly used to optimize production systems that provide a wide range of ecosystem services. While agroforestry is actively promoted for the sustainable intensification of agriculture and restoration of degraded landscapes, there is a paucity of knowledge on Biodiversity Ecosystem Functioning (BEF) relationships in agroforestry systems. Since BEF-relationships in agroforestry might be shaped by combinations of different life-forms (e.g. trees, shrubs, herbs) and their interactions, experiences from grassland and forest experiments cannot be readily transferred to agroforestry. This highlights the need for a new type of experiments in agroforestry to advance our understanding of the role of biodiversity for the functioning of these systems. Therefore, our aim was to develop a conceptual framework for analysing BEF-relationships in agroforestry systems and to present an exemplary design for this purpose, which we placed in a (sub)tropical context. Based on designs used in tree diversity experiments, we suggest four major design principles: 1) a trait-based approach for selecting tree and crop species, 2) the integration of trees and crops along a gradient of functional diversity, 3) maintaining constant density across different combinations of life-forms in agroforests through the concept of “growing-patch-density”, and 4) disentangling a priori the effects of species diversity on ecosystem functioning from those of structural and functional diversity, defined here as the variation in structural attributes such as plant dimensions and in plant functional traits, respectively. Our conceptual design and the embedded principles offer a promising avenue to identify important drivers of specific BEF-relationships and to quantify management influences on these. This design can support new research projects that aim at improving ecosystem functioning of agroforestry with the view of optimizing the provision of ecosystem services and facilitation of ecosystem restoration.  相似文献   

9.
Can weedy regrowth be sometimes useful in restoration? Former pastures, created historically by deforestation and other interventions but then retired from agricultural use, now provide a major opportunity for forest restoration. Globally, forest has begun to regenerate spontaneously at large scales on many such retired pasture lands. Additionally, non‐native species are increasingly often the first trees and shrubs to establish in this situation. Here, I consider the ecological processes that enable some of these species to be useful in restoring diverse rainforest communities of flora and fauna to disused pasture and other agricultural lands; in terms of both the generalised ecological mechanisms involved and specific cases in rainforest landscapes of eastern Australia. Ecological research has shown that regrowth trajectories which begin with dominance by non‐native trees and shrubs may of themselves sometimes transition over several decades towards dominance by native rainforest species, and that these novel ecosystems provide significant habitat for native fauna, as well as a range of ecosystem services. Their destruction in the name of weed control is likely to have an immediate adverse ecological impact. Alternatively, they could be managed and harnessed as a useful part of the practitioners' toolkit for rainforest restoration.  相似文献   

10.
Policy makers across the tropics propose that carbon finance could provide incentives for forest frontier communities to transition away from swidden agriculture (slash‐and‐burn or shifting cultivation) to other systems that potentially reduce emissions and/or increase carbon sequestration. However, there is little certainty regarding the carbon outcomes of many key land‐use transitions at the center of current policy debates. Our meta‐analysis of over 250 studies reporting above‐ and below‐ground carbon estimates for different land‐use types indicates great uncertainty in the net total ecosystem carbon changes that can be expected from many transitions, including the replacement of various types of swidden agriculture with oil palm, rubber, or some other types of agroforestry systems. These transitions are underway throughout Southeast Asia, and are at the heart of REDD+ debates. Exceptions of unambiguous carbon outcomes are the abandonment of any type of agriculture to allow forest regeneration (a certain positive carbon outcome) and expansion of agriculture into mature forest (a certain negative carbon outcome). With respect to swiddening, our meta‐analysis supports a reassessment of policies that encourage land‐cover conversion away from these [especially long‐fallow] systems to other more cash‐crop‐oriented systems producing ambiguous carbon stock changes – including oil palm and rubber. In some instances, lengthening fallow periods of an existing swidden system may produce substantial carbon benefits, as would conversion from intensely cultivated lands to high‐biomass plantations and some other types of agroforestry. More field studies are needed to provide better data of above‐ and below‐ground carbon stocks before informed recommendations or policy decisions can be made regarding which land‐use regimes optimize or increase carbon sequestration. As some transitions may negatively impact other ecosystem services, food security, and local livelihoods, the entire carbon and noncarbon benefit stream should also be taken into account before prescribing transitions with ambiguous carbon benefits.  相似文献   

11.
Tropical rainforests have been disappearing at an alarming rate. In addition to preserving remaining tropical rainforests, we need to convert degraded and abandoned pasturelands into secondary forests. To accelerate this, human intervention in the recovery process is essential. In this review paper we (i) encapsulate some of the problems, which might surface when converting abandoned land to secondary forest. (ii) Look at some of the restoration techniques used in restoration programs and propose additional techniques for consideration. Major barriers to natural regeneration on abandoned and degraded pasturelands are: weed infestation, lack of indigenous soil seed bank, lack of seed supply/movement, soil compaction, depletion of soil nutrients and unsuitable microclimate and microhabitat. Although several restoration techniques have been recommended, most restoration programs have been carried out using native seedling transplants to accelerate natural recruitment. Most restoration groups in the tropics are still in the initial stages of determining which species or species combination to chose to gain maximum benefit. On the other hand restoration ecologists are struggling to detect which techniques are most appropriate to restore degraded and abandoned pasturelands. Our review shows that there is immediate need for further research and development on restoration techniques by examining the ecological and economic effectiveness of: direct seeding, stem cuttings using native pioneer or climax species and simple manipulation such as displacing branches of pioneer species with mature seeds on abandoned and degraded pasturelands and artificial perching to accelerate natural regeneration. These techniques are essential to successfully heal the wound humans have inflicted on the most spectacular and species-rich ecosystems on earth.  相似文献   

12.
Principles of Natural Regeneration of Tropical Dry Forests for Restoration   总被引:13,自引:1,他引:12  
Tropical dry forests are the most threatened tropical terrestrial ecosystem. However, few studies have been conducted on the natural regeneration necessary to restore these forests. We reviewed the ecology of regeneration of tropical dry forests as a tool to restore disturbed lands. Dry forests are characterized by a relatively high number of tree species with small, dry, wind‐dispersed seeds. Over small scales, wind‐dispersed seeds are better able to colonize degraded areas than vertebrate‐dispersed plants. Small seeds and those with low water content are less susceptible to desiccation, which is a major barrier for establishment in open areas. Seeds are available in the soil in the early rainy season to maximize the time to grow. However, highly variable precipitation and frequent dry spells are important sources of mortality in seeds and seedlings. Collecting seeds at the end of the dry season and planting them when soil has sufficient moisture may increase seedling establishment and reduce the time they are exposed to seed predators. Germination and early establishment in the field are favored in shaded sites, which have milder environment and moister soil than open sites during low rainfall periods. Growth of established seedlings, however, is favored in open areas. Therefore, clipping plants around established seedlings may be a good management option to improve growth and survival. Although dry forests have species either resistant to fire or that benefit from it, frequent fires simplify community species composition. Resprouting ability is a noticeable mechanism of regeneration in dry forests and must be considered for restoration. The approach to dry‐forest restoration should be tailored to this ecosystem instead of merely following approaches developed for moister forests.  相似文献   

13.
Agroforestry: a refuge for tropical biodiversity?   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
As rates of deforestation continue to rise in many parts of the tropics, the international conservation community is faced with the challenge of finding approaches which can reduce deforestation and provide rural livelihoods in addition to conserving biodiversity. Much of modern-day conservation is motivated by a desire to conserve 'pristine nature' in protected areas, while there is growing recognition of the long-term human involvement in forest dynamics and of the importance of conservation outside protected areas. Agroforestry -- intentional management of shade trees with agricultural crops -- has the potential for providing habitats outside formally protected land, connecting nature reserves and alleviating resource-use pressure on conservation areas. Here we examine the role of agroforestry systems in maintaining species diversity and conclude that these systems can play an important role in biodiversity conservation in human-dominated landscapes.  相似文献   

14.
Pine barrens are open‐canopy ecological communities once prevalent on sandy soils across the northern Great Lakes Region of the United States and Canada, though fire suppression and plantation forestry have now reduced them to a few isolated areas. Efforts to restore pine barrens are underway on some public lands, but lack of knowledge on the social and ecological issues and challenges that affect these projects impedes fuller progress. As a precursor to designing a public preference survey for pine barrens restoration, we sought input from those with expert knowledge about pine barrens. Using a three‐round modified Delphi survey, forest land managers and researchers identified the key characteristics of pine barrens and important current and future management challenges. Key characteristics were related to fire, landscape structure, plant and animal species, soils, and social themes. Current and future challenges were related to landscape, invasive species, social, economic, climate change, and science themes. Four social issues (education, fire acceptance, fire risk, aesthetics) were rated among the top current challenges but none of them maintained prominence as future challenges. Potential explanations for this shift are that the experts felt these social concerns would be resolved in time or that other issues, such as development pressures and budgets for carrying out restoration, would become greater future challenges. Our approach can be used by managers and researchers to better understand the ecosystems they seek to restore and to communicate with public stakeholders about restoration efforts.  相似文献   

15.
Summary Over the last two decades, recovery plans have emerged as one of the most widespread policy and management responses for endangered species. Often these plans include public and private lands, and the associated government departments and private landholders. Toolibin Lake, in the West Australian (WA) wheatbelt, is a case in point, with a recovery plan focused on an internationally recognized wetland on public land within a predominantly privately owned, agricultural catchment. This paper draws on recent questionnaire and interview‐based research with landholders, to evaluate the influence of the recovery plan on conservation activities. Almost all landholders in the Catchment (93%) are involved in revegetation activities, with the availability of subsidies from the WA Government playing a strong role in adoption and its extent. The main constraints to adopting conservation actions, such as revegetation and fencing remnant vegetation, were cost and logistics. Correspondingly, the greatest incentive was financial inducement. Strengths of the recovery plan were identified as increasing awareness, demonstrating government effectiveness, and making funding available to landholders. The communication efforts by the WA Department of Conservation and Land Management (CALM), the agency leading the recovery process, were lauded while at the same time the need for improved liaison was noted. Weaknesses were the lack of information and direction from CALM, bureaucracy, limited funding for CALM, and variable adoption across the Catchment. Recovery planning in this Catchment and other similar settings could be improved by a continuing commitment to two‐way communication between all those involved, ongoing recognition of the complexities of the government–community interface in recovery planning, and continuing subsidies for conservation actions on private lands where high biodiversity values are at stake.  相似文献   

16.
Ecological restoration of abandoned, formerly forested farmland can improve the delivery of ecosystem services and benefit biodiversity conservation. Restoration programs can involve removing isolated, non‐native trees planted by farmers for fruit or wood. As such “legacy” trees can attract seed dispersers and create microclimates that help native seedlings to establish, removing them may actually slow forest recovery. Working on abandoned farmland in Kibale National Park, Uganda, we evaluated the effect of legacy trees on forest recovery by measuring the number, diversity, and biomass of native seedlings and saplings regenerating in plots centered on avocado (Persea americana), mango (Mangifera indica), and Eucalyptus legacy trees compared with adjacent plots without legacy trees. The assemblages of native, forest‐dependent tree species in plots around avocado and mango trees were distinct from each other and from those around eucalyptus and all the near‐legacy plots. In particular, avocado plots had higher stem density and species richness of forest‐dependent species than near‐avocado plots, particularly large‐seeded, shade‐tolerant, and animal‐dispersed species—key targets of many restoration plans. Furthermore, many of the species found in high numbers were among those failing to establish in ongoing large‐scale forest restoration in Kibale. Taken together, our results demonstrate that the legacy trees facilitate the dispersal and establishment of native tree species. Retaining the existing legacy trees for a number of years could usefully complement existing management strategies to restore more biodiverse native forest in degraded lands. However, careful monitoring is needed to ensure that the legacy trees do not themselves establish.  相似文献   

17.
During the mid‐1900s, most of the island of Puerto Rico was deforested, but a shift in the economy from agriculture to small industry beginning in the 1950s resulted in the abandonment of agricultural lands and recovery of secondary forest. This unique history provides an excellent opportunity to study secondary forest succession and suggest strategies for tropical forest restoration. To determine the pattern of secondary succession, we describe the woody vegetation in 71 abandoned pastures and forest sites in four regions of Puerto Rico. The density, basal area, aboveground biomass, and species richness of the secondary forest sites were similar to those of the old growth forest sites (>80 yr) after approximately 40 years. The dominant species that colonized recently abandoned pastures occurred over a broad elevational range and are widespread in the neotropics. The species richness of Puerto Rican secondary forests recovered rapidly, but the species composition was quite different in comparison with old growth forest sites, suggesting that enrichment planting will be necessary to restore the original composition. Exotic species were some of the most abundant species in the secondary forest, but their long‐term impact depended on life history characteristics of each species. These data demonstrate that one restoration strategy for tropical forest in abandoned pastures is simply to protect the areas from fire, and allow natural regeneration to produce secondary forest. This strategy will be most effective if remnant forest (i.e., seed sources) still exist in the landscape and soils have not been highly degraded. Patterns of forest recovery also suggest strategies for accelerating natural recovery by planting a suite of generalist species that are common in recently abandoned pastures in Puerto Rico and throughout much of the neotropics.  相似文献   

18.
Throughout the tropics, agroforests are often the only remaining habitat with a considerable tree cover. Agroforestry systems can support high numbers of species and are therefore frequently heralded as the future for tropical biodiversity conservation. However, anthropogenic habitat modification can facilitate species invasions that may suppress native fauna. We compared the ant fauna of lower canopy trees in natural rainforest sites with that of cacao trees in agroforests in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia in order to assess the effects of agroforestry on occurrence of the Yellow Crazy Ant Anoplolepis gracilipes, a common invasive species in the area, and its effects on overall ant richness. The agroforests differed in the type of shade-tree composition, tree density, canopy cover, and distance to the village. On average, 43% of the species in agroforests also occurred in the lower canopy of nearby primary forest and the number of forest ant species that occurred on cacao trees was not related to agroforestry characteristics. However, A. gracilipes was the most common non-forest ant species, and forest ant richness decreased significantly with the presence of this species. Our results indicate that agroforestry may have promoted the occurrence of A. gracilipes, possibly because tree management in agroforests negatively affects ant species that depend on trees for nesting and foraging, whereas A. gracilipes is a generalist when it comes to nesting sites and food preference. Thus, agroforestry management that includes the thinning of tree stands can facilitate ant invasions, thereby threatening the potential of cultivated land for the conservation of tropical ant diversity.  相似文献   

19.
Representatives from agencies involved in natural resource management in the Murray‐Darling Basin gathered for a workshop in November 2010 to develop a vision for improved monitoring and reporting of riparian restoration projects. The resounding message from this workshop was that the effectiveness of riparian restoration depends on having sound, documented and agreed evidence on the ecological responses to restoration efforts. Improving our capacity to manage and restore riparian ecosystems is constrained by (i) a lack of ecological evidence on the effects of restoration efforts, and (ii) short‐termism in commitment to restoration efforts, in funding of monitoring and in expected time spans for ecosystem recovery. Restoration at the effective spatial scope will invariably require a long‐term commitment by researchers, funding agencies, management agencies and landholders. To address the knowledge gaps that constrain riparian restoration in the Basin, participants endorsed four major fields for future research: the importance of landscape context to restoration outcomes; spatio‐temporal scaling of restoration outcomes; functional effects of restoration efforts; and developing informative and effective indicators of restoration. To improve the monitoring and restoration of riparian zones throughout the Basin, participants advocated an integrated approach: a hierarchical adaptive management framework that incorporates long‐term ecological research.  相似文献   

20.
Extensive land clearing in many parts of the global tropics is a major threat to biodiversity, and strategies are urgently needed to reinstate forest. Tree planting is a commonly used strategy to rapidly restore forest to degraded landscapes. However, tree planting is expensive, and in most cases financial constraints prevent its use at a scale needed to address the ongoing legacy of land clearing. Here, we conduct a quantitative review of literature from the global tropics and evaluate outcomes of less intensive interventions (i.e. non‐planting) aimed at stimulating natural regeneration of forest. We focus specifically on overcoming barriers to native plant regeneration that predominate in the earliest stages of succession. Common interventions include varied strategies to suppress herbaceous vegetation (e.g. cutting or herbicide treatment), and measures to bolster propagule supply (e.g. direct seeding and artificial bird perches). There was an apparent trend among pair‐wise comparisons of effect sizes to suggest that combined interventions to simultaneously suppress herbaceous vegetation and increase propagule supply resulted in the most consistent outcomes in terms of promoting progress toward restoring forest structure. Despite an obvious demand for lower cost interventions, a paucity of information means that it is still premature to generalize outcomes of specific interventions and their overall cost relative to active tree planting. Nevertheless, we report an increase in research effort in this area, and suggest promising directions to accelerate progress that will improve capacity to select optimal, cost effective strategies that achieve long‐term restoration objectives with a particular level of certainty .  相似文献   

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