Why Do Males in Scotland Die Younger than Those in England? Evidence from Three Prospective Cohort Studies

Background

To examine explanations for the higher rates of male mortality in two Scottish cohorts compared with a cohort in south-east England for which similar data were collected.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We compared three cohort studies which recruited participants in the late 1960s and early 1970s. A total of 13,884 men aged 45–64 years at recruitment in the Whitehall occupational cohort (south-east England), 3,956 men in the Collaborative occupational cohort and 6,813 men in the Renfrew & Paisley population-based study (both central Scotland) were included in analyses of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. All-cause mortality was 25% (age-adjusted hazard ratio 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI)1.21 to 1.30) and 41% (hazard ratio 1.41 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.45) higher in the Collaborative and Renfrew & Paisley cohorts respectively compared to the Whitehall cohort. The higher mortality rates were substantially attenuated by social class (to 8% and 17% higher respectively), and were effectively eliminated upon the further addition of the other baseline risk factors, such as smoking habit, lung function and pre-existing self-reported morbidity. Despite this, coronary heart disease mortality remained 11% and 16% higher, stroke mortality 45% and 37% higher, mortality from accidents and suicide 51% and 70% higher, and alcohol-related mortality 46% and 73% higher in the Collaborative and Renfrew & Paisley cohorts respectively compared with the Whitehall cohort in the fully adjusted model.

Conclusions/Significance

The higher all-cause, respiratory, and lung cancer male mortality in the Scottish cohorts was almost entirely explained by social class differences and higher prevalence of known risk factors, but reasons for the excess mortality from stroke, alcohol-related causes, accidents and suicide remained unknown.     

Has mortality from melanoma stopped rising in Australia? Analysis of trends between 1931 and 1994.

OBJECTIVE--To describe recent trends in mortality from melanoma in Australia. DESIGN--An analysis of trends in age standardised and age and sex specific mortalities by year of death and median year of birth (cohort). SETTING--Australia. SUBJECTS--All deaths from melanoma registered in Australia between 1931 and 1994. RESULTS--Melanoma mortality rose steadily from 1931 to 1985. From 1959 the annual rate of increase was 6.3% in men and 2.9% in women, resulting in mortalities of 4.82 and 2.51 per 100,000 person years in 1985 and 1989, respectively. Mortalities for both sexes seem to have plateaued from June 1985 onwards. In 1990-4 the rate rose by 3.7% in men to 5.00 per 100,000 and in women it fell by 5.2% to 2.38 per 100,000. The non-significant increase after 1985 in mortality in men was restricted to those aged over 70 years of age, whereas the fall in rates in women was mostly in those aged under 55 years. This pattern was generally reflected in the state trends, though with some variation: rates for women in Queensland had peaked in the late 1970s; while rates for men in New South Wales continued to rise in 1990-4, placing them above those for Queensland. Examination of mortalities specific for age, period, and cohort for Australia as a whole showed several salient features. Rates in men rose steeply in cohorts born before about 1930; were stable in cohorts born between 1930 and 1950; and fell in more recent cohorts. Rates in women showed similar changes but about five years earlier. CONCLUSION--Melanoma mortality in Australia peaked in about 1985 and has now plateaued. On the basis of trends in cohorts it can be expected to fall in coming years.     

The Unchanging Pattern of Pulmonary Tuberculosis

Study of mortality from pulmonary tuberculosis in Ontario between 1881 and 1961 reveals a steady decline in rates since the beginning of this century, affecting both sexes and all age groups. This decline has been much faster in the younger than in the older age groups. When the mortality rates are studied for groups of men and women born within 10-year periods (10-year cohorts) an orderly pattern of mortality emerges, consisting of two distinct phenomena. First, the shape of the “cohort” curves is always similar: the mortality rates rise sharply in childhood and the peak is reached in early adult life, followed by a gradual descent. This appears to be a basic but unexplained feature of pulmonary tuberculosis. Secondly, each cohort shows through its life span a lower mortality rate than the previous cohort, but a higher rate than the succeeding one; it is suggested that this is primarily due to a decline in intensity of tuberculous infection over the past several decades. The high tuberculosis rates seen now in the elderly are but the residue of the much higher rates experienced by these people early in their lives.     

The Changing Body Mass–Mortality Association in the United States: Evidence of Sex-Specific Cohort Trends from Three National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys

The association between body mass index (BMI) categories and mortality remains uncertain. Using three National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys covering the 1971–2006 period for cohorts born between 1896 and 1968, this study estimates separately for men and women models for year-of-birth (cohort) and year-of-observation (period) trends in how age-specific mortality rates differ across BMI categories. Among women, relative to the normal weight (BMI 18.5–24.9 kg/m²), there are increasing trends in mortality rates for the overweight (BMI 25–29.9) or obese (BMI ≥ 30). Among men, mortality rates relative to the normal weight decrease for the overweight, do not change for the moderately obese (BMI 30–34.9), and increase for the severely obese (BMI ≥ 35). Period and cohort trends are similar, but the cohort trends are more consistent. In the latest cohorts, compared with the normal weight, mortality rates are 50 percent lower for overweight men, not different for moderately obese men, and 100–200 percent higher for severely obese men and for overweight or obese women. For U.S. cohorts born after the 1920s, a lower overweight than normal weight mortality is confined to men. I speculate on possible reasons why the mortality association with overweight and obesity varies by sex and cohort.     

An Analysis of the Increase in Lung Cancer in Canada

Lung cancer mortality in Canada over the period 1936-1964 is reviewed and a forecast is presented of future trends in the death rates, based on cohort analyses. Since 1936 the annual increases in mortality have been greater among individuals over 65 years of age, but in this group no single five-year age-group has contributed the major part to the general increase. Cohort analyses show (a) that the rate of increase of lung cancer has been much slower in generations born after 1906, (b) that the actual death rate will rise more slowly in the future, and (c) that the death rate may become stable within 15 years.     

Breast Cancer at the Ontario Cancer Clinics, 1938-1956: A Statistical Review

In Ontario, breast cancer accounts for one death in every 27 among females. In 1938-1956 some 40% of all new cases were registered at the Ontario Cancer Foundation''s regional clinics. The five-year crude survival rate for 11,393 women was 45.4%, and for 91 men, 36.3%. Survival rates were strongly affected by extent of disease; when this was allowed for, pregnancy and treatment method were also found to influence survival rate. Simple mastectomy with radiotherapy gave results that appeared comparable to those after radical mastectomy, alone or with radiotherapy. There was a 20% improvement in the crude five-year survival rate over the period of the survey. The need for great caution in interpreting these findings is stressed.     

Cancer of the Breast in Ontario

The breast is the leading cancer site among women; it accounts for 20% of all female cancer deaths. The lifetime probability of death from breast cancer for a female born in Ontario is 3.3%; that is, one in every 30 women will die of breast cancer. The risk of developing breast cancer is almost twice this figure.The medical certificate of death yields a reliable estimate of the number of persons who die of breast cancer, and the level of the age-specific breast cancer death rates has not changed over the past 30 years. Cohort analysis yields an indistinguishable mortality pattern for succeeding cohorts of women from 1871. Available information indicates no change in incidence.The stable mortality and incidence rates suggest that there has been little or no change in the survival rate, despite emphasis on early diagnosis and improvement in therapeutic skills and in technical facilities.     

Determinants of survival in children with congenital abnormalities: a long-term population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND: Today more children with birth defects survive early childhood because of improved medical care; however, little information is available about patterns of long-term mortality and survival in this population. In particular, it is not clear whether other birth characteristics, apart from birth defects, have any role in their mortality. METHODS: Two large cohorts of children with and without birth defects were followed for up to 17 years. More than 45,000 children with birth defects, and 45,000 matched children without birth defects born in Ontario between 1979 and 1986 were followed. Throughout the study period long-term survival rates and the risk of death were compared between the 2 cohorts. Birth characteristics were also examined to determine their effect on the risk of death. RESULTS: During the study the deaths of 3620 and 301 children with and without birth defects, respectively, were recorded, indicating that those with birth defects had a 13 times higher rate of mortality (relative risk [RR], 12.9, 95% confidence interval [CI], 12.1-13.7). Mortality rates in the birth-defects cohort remained higher even after 10-15 years. In both groups children of low gestational age and low birth weight had a higher risk of death. There was a strong dose-response relationship between the number of defects and the risk of death. CONCLUSIONS: Children born with abnormalities face many challenges throughout their lifetimes. If they survive the high mortality risk of the first year of life, they still have to face the considerably higher risk of death in the years to come. In addition to birth defects, other birth characteristics play an independent role in their mortality. These indicators could be used to identify high-risk children.     

A Statistical Review of Carcinoma of the Lip

Among 3166 patients with microscopically confirmed squamous cell carcinoma of the lip registered at The Ontario Cancer Treatment and Research Foundation''s Regional Clinics in 1938-1955, the five-year crude survival rate was 65%, and the five-year net survival rate 89%. Survival was influenced by age, site and size of primary lesion, local and regional invasion, long delay, and treatment method. The initial treatment appeared to control the primary lesion in 84% of cases and involved lymph nodes in 58%. The net survival rates improved over the survey period. Findings confirm the usefulness of the proposed TNM staging.     

The relation of small head circumference and thinness at birth to death from cardiovascular disease in adult life.

OBJECTIVE--To determine how fetal growth is related to death from cardiovascular disease in adult life. DESIGN--A follow up study of men born during 1907-24 whose birth weights, head circumferences, and other body measurements were recorded at birth. SETTING--Sheffield, England. SUBJECTS--1586 Men born in the Jessop Hospital. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--Death from cardiovascular disease. RESULTS--Standardised mortality ratios for cardiovascular disease fell from 119 in men who weighed 5.5 pounds (2495 g) or less at birth to 74 in men who weighed more than 8.5 pounds (3856 g). The fall was significant for premature cardiovascular deaths up to 65 years of age (chi 2 = 5.0, p = 0.02). Standardised mortality ratios also fell with increasing head circumference (chi 2 = 4.6, p = 0.03) and increasing ponderal index (weight/length3) (chi 2 = 3.8, p = 0.05; for premature deaths chi 2 = 6.0, p = 0.01). They were not related to the duration of gestation. Among men for whom the ratio of placental weight to birth weight was in the highest fifths the standardised mortality ratio was 137. CONCLUSION--These findings show that reduced fetal growth is followed by increased mortality from cardiovascular disease. They suggest that reduction in growth begins early in gestation. They are further evidence that cardiovascular disease originates through programming of the body''s structure, physiology, and metabolism by the environment during fetal life. Maternal nutrition may have an important influence on programming.     

Changes in Sibling configurations for American preschool children

Abstract

This paper uses data drawn from the 1940 through 1980 Public Use Microdata Samples of the U.S. Census of Population to document sibling configurations from the child's perspective. Changes in four aspects of siblings are examined for five cohorts of white and black preschool‐aged children: number, birth order distributions, spacing intervals, and sex composition. Changes in fertility behavior of adults in the post‐war era had a profound effect on the structure of sibling systems experienced by children. Successive cohorts of preschool children show a rise in number of siblings through the early post‐war years before showing sharp declines in number of siblings through the 1960's and 1970's. These shifts in size of sibling sets are reflected in changes in the proportion of each cohorts who are first born and only children, both of which have increased substantially by the 1980 cohort. The 1940 and 1980 cohorts have similar proportions of children with short intervals. However, the middle cohorts show the effects of the quickened pace of fertility with substantial proportions of children with comparatively short birth intervals. Finally, substantial shifts across cohorts in several measures of sex composition of children are observed. Most significantly, there is a marked decline in the proportion of children experiencing an opposite‐sex older sibling.     

Year of Birth Effects in the Historical Decline of Tuberculosis Mortality: A Reconsideration

Birth cohort patterns in mortality are often used to infer long-lasting impacts of early life conditions. One of the most widely accepted examples of a birth cohort effect is that of tuberculosis mortality before the late 1940s. However the evidential basis for claims of cohort-specific declines in tuberculosis mortality is very slight. Reanalysis of original or enhanced versions of datasets used previously to support claims of cohort effects in tuberculosis mortality indicated that: 1. where the initial decline in tuberculosis mortality occurred within the period of observation, onset of decline occurred simultaneously in many age groups, in a pattern indicative of ‘period’ not cohort-dependent effects. 2. there was little evidence of ‘proportional hazard’-type cohort patterns in tuberculosis mortality for any female population studied. Therefore any mechanisms proposed to underlie this type of cohort pattern in male mortality must be sex-specific. 3. sex ratios of tuberculosis mortality at older ages peaked in cohorts born around 1900, and resembled cohort sex ratios of lung cancer mortality. This analysis indicates that age-specific patterns in the decline in tuberculosis mortality before 1950 are unlikely to reflect improvements in early life conditions. The patterns observed are generally more consistent with the influence of factors that reduced mortality simultaneously in most age groups. Additional influences, possibly smoking habits, impeded the decline of tuberculosis in older adult males, and produced the sex-specific shifts in age distributions of mortality that were previously interpreted as evidence of cohort-dependent mortality decline.     

Temporal changes in the outcomes of acute myocardial infarction in Ontario, 1992-1996

BACKGROUND: There is relatively little information available on recent population-based trends in the outcomes of patients who have had an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). We, therefore, conducted a study of temporal trends in the outcomes of AMI patients in Ontario, Canada, between the 1992 and 1996 fiscal years. METHODS: 114,618 AMI patients were discharged from hospitals in Ontario between Apr. 1, 1992, and Mar. 31, 1997. After specific exclusion criteria were applied the final sample of 89,456 patients was divided into 5 cohorts according to the fiscal year of discharge. As part of the Ontario Myocardial Infarction Database project the linked administrative data pertaining to these patients were used to examine cohort characteristics, cardiac procedures used and mortality rates for each of the 5 cohorts over time. RESULTS: There was a significant increase in the percentage of patients in Ontario receiving coronary angiography, percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty and coronary artery bypass grafting surgery (p < 0.001) after an AMI between 1992 and 1996. In addition, the overall 30-day risk-adjusted mortality rate declined from 15.5% in 1992 to 14.0% in 1996 (p = 0.001) and the 1-year risk-adjusted mortality rate declined from 23.7% in 1992 to 22.3% in 1996 (p = 0.017). Virtually all of the improvement occurred within 30 days of admission. The absolute decline in 1-year mortality rates was significant for patients under the age of 65 (2.3%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.4% to 3.2%) and for males (1.2%, 95% CI 0.2% to 2.2%); absolute declines were not significant for patients 65 years of age or older (0.7%, 95% CI -0.6% to 2.0%) and for female patients (-0.1%, 95% CI -1.7% to 1.5%). Interestingly, post-infarction coronary angiography and coronary artery bypass grafting rates were consistently lower in the older and the female patients throughout the study period. INTERPRETATION: There was a modest improvement in the short- and long-term survival of patients in Ontario after an AMI between 1992 and 1996. The Ontario experience suggests that recent advances in AMI management have been of more benefit to younger and male AMI patients.     

Secular trends in incidence and mortality of bladder cancer in China, 1990–2017: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis

BackgroundBladder cancer is closely related to occupational carcinogens, and China is undergoing a rapid industrialization. However, trend of bladder cancer incidence and mortality remains unknown in China.MethodsIncidence and mortality rates of bladder cancer (1990–2017) were collected for each 5-year age group stratified by gender (males/females) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of rates were analyzed by joinpoint regression analysis; age, period and cohort effects on incidence and mortality were simultaneously estimated by age-period-cohort model.ResultsThrough 1990–2017, age-standardized incidence rates significantly rose in men (AAPC = 0.72%, 95% CI: 0.5%, 0.9%) while decreased in women (-1.25%: -1.6%, -0.9%); age-standardized mortality rates decreased in both men (-1.09%: -1.2%, -0.9%) and women (-2.48%: -2.8%, -2.2%). The joinpoint regression analysis showed the mortality almost decreased in all age groups; while the incidence increased in men for older age groups (from 45 to 49 to 80–84). Moreover, age effect showed the incidence and mortality increased with age; the incidence and mortality increased with time period, while in women period effect stop decreasing and began to increase since 2007; cohort effect showed them decreased with birth cohorts.ConclusionsThe incidence of bladder cancer is increasing in men but mortality decreases in both sexes. Both the incidence and mortality in men substantially increase with age and period, while the rates in women increased with period since 2007. The period effect may indicate the increased risks to bladder cancer in Chinese men. Etiological studies are needed to identify the factors driving these trends of bladder cancer.     

Modelling lung cancer mortality rates from smoking prevalence: Fill in the gap

BackgroundThe objective of this study is to estimate the gap between smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality and provide predictions of lung cancer mortality based on previous smoking prevalence.Materials and methodsWe used data from the Spanish National Health Surveys (2003, 2006 and 2011) to obtain information about tobacco use and data from the Spanish National Statistics Institute to obtain cancer mortality rates from 1980 to 2013. We calculated the cross-correlation among the historical series of smoking prevalence and lung cancer mortality rate (LCMR) to estimate the most likely time gap between both series. We also predicted the magnitude and timing of the LCMR peak.ResultsAll cross-correlations were statistically significant and positive (all above 0.8). For men, the most likely gap ranges from 20 to 34 years. The age-adjusted LCMR increased by 3.2 deaths per 100,000 people for every 1 unit increase in the smoking prevalence 29 years earlier. The highest rate for men was observed in 1995 (55.6 deaths). For women, the most likely gap ranges from 10 to 37 years. The age-adjusted LCMR increased by 0.28 deaths per 100,000 people for every 1 unit increase in the smoking prevalence 32 years earlier. The maximum rate is expected to occur in 2026 (10.3 deaths).ConclusionThe time series of prevalence of tobacco smoking explains the mortality from lung cancer with a distance (or gap) of around 30 years. According to the lagged smoking prevalence, the lung cancer mortality among men is declining while in women continues to rise (maximum expected in 2026).     

Increase in the Prevalence of Obesity in Switzerland 1982–2007: Birth Cohort Analysis Puts Recent Slowdown into Perspective

Although the prevalence of obesity continues to increase in Switzerland, the latest figures suggest a slowdown in the rate of increase. In order to elucidate whether this could be the onset of a trend reversal, we analyzed cross‐sectional data by birth cohort. We assessed the prevalence of overweight+ (BMI ≥25 kg/m²) and obesity (BMI ≥30 kg/m²) in six population surveys with self‐reported height and weight values (Switzerland, N = 68,829, 1982–2007, men (45%) and women (55%), aged 20–84 years) by 10‐year birth cohorts (from the decade 1910–1919 through to 1970–1979). We found that increases in the prevalence of overweight+ and obesity occurred mainly in the cohort born 1930 to 1939, and again in the cohorts born 1960 to 1979. The accelerated increase in the prevalence of overweight+ in the youngest birth cohort and the lower prevalence in the oldest birth cohorts suggest that the current slowdown seen in Switzerland may not herald the onset of a trend reversal. As this example shows, simple comparisons of prevalence rates over time could provide a misleading picture of actual trends. Birth cohort analysis may offer a valuable alternative.     

Trends in the incidence of testicular germ cell cancer in Ontario by histologic subgroup, 1964-1996

BACKGROUND: Testicular cancer is rare but is notable because it affects mainly young men. The incidence of this disease has been increasing in developed countries throughout the world for several decades. The authors examined trends in the incidence of testicular germ cell cancer in Ontario for the period 1964-1996 according to the 2 main histologic groups, seminoma and non-seminoma. METHODS: Data on incident cases of testicular germ cell cancer diagnosed in Ontario residents aged 15-59 years between 1964 and 1996 were extracted from the population-based Ontario Cancer Registry. Annual rates of testicular cancer for the 2 histologic groups were analysed by means of log-linear regression to estimate average annual percent change. RESULTS: Between 1964 and 1996 the incidence of testicular germ cell cancer increased by 59.4%, from 4.01 to 6.39 per 100,000. This corresponded to an average annual increase of about 2% for both nonseminoma and seminoma. The relative increase in incidence was greatest in the lowest age group (15-29 years) for both histologic groups, although the data suggest that the incidence of nonseminoma cancer in this age group began to decline in the early 1990s. The increase in incidence appears to be due to a birth cohort effect, with more recent cohorts of men at increased risk. INTERPRETATION: The rise in the incidence of testicular germ cell cancer, not only in Ontario but also in many developed countries, requires investigation. The search for explanatory factors should focus on exposures whose prevalence may have increased over the past few decades and that are common enough to affect population incidence. The similarity of trends for seminoma and nonseminoma cancer suggests that the underlying risk factors are likely the same.     

HAS ACTUARIAL AGING “SLOWED” OVER THE PAST 250 YEARS? A COMPARISON OF SMALL‐SCALE SUBSISTENCE POPULATIONS AND EUROPEAN COHORTS

G.C. Williams's 1957 hypothesis famously argues that higher age-independent, or "extrinsic," mortality should select for faster rates of senescence. Long-lived species should therefore show relatively few deaths from extrinsic causes such as predation and starvation. Theoretical explorations and empirical tests of Williams's hypothesis have flourished in the past decade but it has not yet been tested empirically among humans. We test Williams's hypothesis using mortality data from subsistence populations and from historical cohorts from Sweden and England/Wales, and examine whether rates of actuarial aging declined over the past two centuries. We employ three aging measures: mortality rate doubling time (MRDT), Ricklefs's ω, and the slope of mortality hazard from ages 60–70, m '_60–70, and model mortality using both Weibull and Gompertz–Makeham hazard models. We find that (1) actuarial aging in subsistence societies is similar to that of early Europe, (2) actuarial senescence has slowed in later European cohorts, (3) reductions in extrinsic mortality associate with slower actuarial aging in longitudinal samples, and (4) men senesce more rapidly than women, especially in later cohorts. To interpret these results, we attempt to bridge population-based evolutionary analysis with individual-level proximate mechanisms.     

Respiratory symptoms as predictors of 27 year mortality in a representative sample of British adults.

OBJECTIVE--To examine associations between reported respiratory symptoms (as elicited by questionnaire) and subsequent mortality. DESIGN--Prospective cohort study. SETTING--92 General practices in Great Britain. PARTICIPANTS--A nationally representative sample of 1532 British men and women aged between 40 and 64. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Mortality from all causes, cardiovascular disease, lung cancer, and chronic bronchitis. RESULTS--Subjects were interviewed in 1958 regarding various respiratory symptoms (including cough, phlegm, breathlessness, and wheeze) by using a questionnaire which formed the basis of the Medical Research Council''s questionnaire on respiratory symptoms. By the end of 1985, 889 deaths had been reported, including 51 in men due to chronic bronchitis. After adjustment for differences in age and smoking habits death rates from chronic bronchitis in men who reported symptoms were greater than those in men who did not for each of the symptoms examined. The adjusted mortality ratios were 3.4 (95% confidence interval 1.8 to 6.5) for morning cough, 3.7 (2.0 to 6.9) for morning phlegm, 6.4 (3.0 to 13.8) for breathlessness when walking on the level, and 10.5 (4.4 to 24.6) for wheeze most days or nights. Mortality ratios were also significantly raised for four episodic symptoms not usually included in more recent respiratory symptom questionnaires--namely, occasional wheeze (mortality ratio 6.0; 95% confidence interval, 2.4 to 15.1), weather affects chest (5.7; 3.1 to 10.3), breathing different in summer (4.9; 2.8 to 8.6), and cold usually goes to chest (3.7; 2.0 to 6.8). The excess mortality associated with these symptoms remained significant after further adjustment for breathlessness or phlegm. Ratios for all cause mortality in men and women were also significantly raised for most respiratory symptoms, death rates being some 20-50% higher in people reporting symptoms after adjustment for age, sex, and smoking. Breathlessness was the only symptom significantly associated with excess mortality from cardiovascular disease (mortality ratio 1.4 (95% confidence interval 1.0 to 1.9) for breathlessness when walking on the level). Ratios were generally around unity and not significant for mortality due to lung cancer. CONCLUSIONS--The results suggest that episodic symptoms, which often do not appear in standard respiratory questionnaires, predict subsequent mortality from chronic obstructive airways disease. This supports the hypothesis that reversible airflow obstruction may be a precursor of progressive and irreversible decline in ventilatory function.     

Differences in baseline lung cancer mortality between the German uranium miners cohort and the population of the former German Democratic Republic (1960–2003)

A previous analysis of the radon-related lung cancer mortality risk, in the German uranium miners cohort, using Poisson modeling techniques, noted internal (spontaneous) rates that were higher on average than the external rates by 16.5% (95% CI: 9%; 24%). The main purpose of the present paper is to investigate the nature of, and possible reasons for, this difference by comparing patterns in spontaneous lung cancer mortality rates in a cohort of male miners involved in uranium extraction at the former Wismut mining company in East Germany with national male rates from the former German Democratic Republic. The analysis is based on miner data for 3,001 lung cancer deaths, 1.76 million person-years for the period 1960–2003, and national rates covering the same calendar-year range. Simple “age–period–cohort” graphical analyses were applied to assess the main qualitative differences between the national and cohort baseline lung cancer rates. Some differences were found to occur mainly at higher attained ages above 70 years. Although many occupational risk factors may have contributed to these observed age differences, only the effects of smoking have been assessed here by applying the Peto–Lopez indirect method for calculating smoking attributability. It is inferred that the observed age differences could be due to the greater prevalence of smoking and more mature smoking epidemic in the Wismut cohort compared to the general population of the former German Democratic Republic. In view of these observed differences between external population-based rates and internal (spontaneous) cohort baseline lung cancer rates, it is strongly recommended to apply only the internal rates in future analyses of uranium miner cohorts.