A change from grass pollen induced allergy to tree pollen induced allergy: 30 years of pollen observation in Switzerland

Pollen monitoring with a Hirst like pollen trap for 30 years in Basel, Switzerland allows understanding of the behaviour of the different plants producing allergenic pollens. It becomes evident that in this time period the different tree pollen like Hazel and Birch increased, whereas in the control, the observed amount of a herb pollen like Artemisa did not change. Moreover, it was observed that in the different trees flowering took place earlier namely at the beginning of the year. This was especially impressive for Hazel, where flowering was shifted ofmore than one month. These aerobiological observations were supported and confirmed by some epidemiological studies, showing that tree pollen allergy has become more important in the last years compared to grass pollen allergy and herb pollen allergy. The reason for the increase of tree pollen counts and the shift in the flowering time depends on the observed increase of the annual temperature, an increased input of nutrients like CO₂or NO_x but probably also a real increase of certain trees, like birch for example, in parks and avenues. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Variation and change in fertility in West Central Nepal

This article employs temporal and intracultural frames of reference to examine patterns of variation in fertility among the caste-Hindus of West Central Nepal. Before the onset of major socioeconomic development in the region, three groups, the large-farm high castes, the small-farm high castes, and the low castes, exhibited distinct patterns of reproductive behavior which have been traced over the course of 25 years. Analysis of age-specific fertility rates suggests that one group, the small farm high-caste, maintained relatively low fertility before major development of the region occurred, and, over time, began using modern contraception in order to keep fertility low. Evidence from the low castes suggests that they are beginning deliberately to reduce fertility, but the large-farm high castes continue to have high fertility.     

Rapid adaptation to climate change

In recent years, amid growing concerns that changing climate is affecting species distributions and ecosystems, predicting responses to rapid environmental change has become a major goal. In this issue, Franks and colleagues take a first step towards this objective (Franks et al. 2016). They examine genomewide signatures of selection in populations of Brassica rapa after a severe multiyear drought. Together with other authors, Franks had previously shown that flowering time was reduced after this particular drought and that the reduction was genetically encoded. Now, the authors have sequenced previously stored samples to compare allele frequencies before and after the drought and identify the loci with the most extreme shifts in frequencies. The loci they identify largely differ between populations, suggesting that different genetic variants may be responsible for reduction in flowering time in the two populations.     

Rapid morphological change in stream beetle museum specimens correlates with climate change

Abstract 1. Climate change has been occurring at unprecedented rates and its impacts on biological populations is beginning to be well documented in the literature. For many species, however, long‐term records are not available, and trends have not been documented. 2. Using museum specimens from southern USA, we show that the stream‐dwelling beetle Gyretes sinuatus has shown an 8% increase in body size and change in body shape (fineness ratio) from 1928 to 1988. Any directional morphological change observed over time could be an indicator of a microevolutionary response. 3. During these 60 years, there have also been changes in temperature, precipitation, and location of collection sites. Unlike the global trend, mean annual temperature in the region has decreased, and furthermore, total annual precipitation has increased. By investigating how these various ecological and geographical variables may affect body size and shape, we can examine which pressures may promote larger and/or thinner beetles. 4. Results indicate that mean annual temperature was the most predictive variable for the change in size and shape. We suggest there is an adaptive role for temperature on body size and shape of stream dwelling organisms. 5. We found that museum specimens can be invaluable resources of information when collection date and location information is available. We promote the use of such specimens for future studies of the morphological response to climate change.     

Evolutionary change in Cepaea nemoralis shell colour over 43 years

We compared shell colour forms in the land snail Cepaea nemoralis at 16 sites in a 7 × 8 km section of the Province of Groningen, the Netherlands, between 1967 and 2010. To do so, we used stored samples in a natural history collection and resampled the exact collection localities. We found that almost all populations had experienced considerable evolutionary change in various phenotypes, possibly due to population bottlenecks and habitat change after repeated land consolidation schemes in the area. More importantly, we found a consistent increase in yellow effectively unbanded snails at the expense of brown snails. This is one of the expected adaptations to climate change (this area of the Netherlands has warmed by 1.5–2.0 °C over the time period spanned by the two sampling years), and the first clear demonstration of this in C. nemoralis.     

Land cover change and management implications for the conservation of a seabird in an urban coastal zone under climate change

Little Penguin (Eudyptula minor) is one of the most ecologically important seabirds in New Zealand and depends strongly on terrestrial ecosystems for nesting, moulting and breeding. Wellington, New Zealand, is one of the world's most important biodiversity hot spots for this species, mostly in confluence with human urban settlements. This species is currently suffering from the local impacts of climate change associated with urbanisation. Two suburbs of Wellington, New Zealand, that are used seasonally by Little Penguin as terrestrial habitat were selected as the study area to address two issues: (i) how local impacts of climate change may affect the population and habitat structure of species in urban coastal zones where land cover change occurs; and (ii) how landscape management practices may help to mitigate the impacts imposed by climate change on the species in such a context. Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems techniques were applied to quantify and measure the extent of the prehuman forests and current land cover classes in the study area to reveal the degree to which land cover has changed from predevelopment to the present time. The research shows that land cover change in the study area has been widespread and partly irreversible, particularly in areas covered by the class Built‐up Area. Results reveal that there are still spatial opportunities to safeguard this vulnerable species against the ill effects of climate change through landscape management practices.     

Bayesian analysis of climate change impacts in phenology

The identification of changes in observational data relating to the climate change hypothesis remains a topic of paramount importance. In particular, scientifically sound and rigorous methods for detecting changes are urgently needed. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian approach to nonparametric function estimation. The method is applied to blossom time series of Prunus avium L., Galanthus nivalis L. and Tilia platyphyllos SCOP. The functional behavior of these series is represented by three different models: the constant model, the linear model and the one change point model. The one change point model turns out to be the preferred one in all three data sets with considerable discrimination of the other alternatives. In addition to the functional behavior, rates of change in terms of days per year were also calculated. We obtain also uncertainty margins for both function estimates and rates of change. Our results provide a quantitative representation of what was previously inferred from the same data by less involved methods.     

Colour change and camouflage in the horned ghost crab Ocypode ceratophthalmus

Species that change colour present an ideal opportunity to study the control and tuning of camouflage with regards to the background. However, most research on colour‐pattern change and camouflage has been undertaken with species that rapidly alter appearance (in seconds), despite the fact that most species change appearance over longer time periods (e.g. minutes, hours, or days). We investigated whether individuals of the horned ghost crab (Ocypode ceratophthalmus) from Singapore can change colour, when this occurs, and how it influences camouflage. Individuals showed a clear daily rhythm of colour change, becoming lighter during the day and darker at night, and this significantly improved their camouflage to the sand substrate upon which they live. Individuals did not change colour when put into dark conditions, but they did become brighter when placed on a white versus a black substrate. Our findings show that ghost crabs have a circadian rhythm of colour change mediating camouflage, which is fine‐tuned by adaptation to the background brightness. These types of colour change can enable individuals to achieve effective camouflage under a range of environmental conditions, substrates, and time periods, and may be widespread in other species. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2013, 109 , 257–270.     

Effects of late quaternary climate change on Palearctic shrews

The Late Quaternary was a time of rapid climatic oscillations and drastic environmental changes. In general, species can respond to such changes by behavioral accommodation, distributional shifts, ecophenotypic modifications (nongenetic), evolution (genetic) or ultimately face local extinction. How those responses manifested in the past is essential for properly predicting future ones especially as the current warm phase is further intensified by rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Here, we use ancient DNA (aDNA) and morphological features in combination with ecological niche modeling (ENM) to investigate genetic and nongenetic responses of Central European Palearctic shrews to past climatic change. We show that a giant form of shrew, previously described as an extinct Pleistocene Sorex species, represents a large ecomorph of the common shrew (Sorex araneus), which was replaced by populations from a different gene‐pool and with different morphology after the Pleistocene Holocene transition. We also report the presence of the cold‐adapted tundra shrew (S. tundrensis) in Central Europe. This species is currently restricted to Siberia and was hitherto unknown as an element of the Pleistocene fauna of Europe. Finally, we show that there is no clear correlation between climatic oscillations within the last 50 000 years and body size in shrews and conclude that a special nonanalogous situation with regard to biodiversity and food supply in the Late Glacial may have caused the observed large body size.     

Variable effects of climate change on six species of North American birds

Many recent studies have shown that birds are advancing their laying date in response to long-term increases in spring temperatures. These studies have been conducted primarily in Europe and at local scales. If climate change is a large-scale phenomenon, then we should see responses at larger scales and in other regions. We examined the effects of long-term temperature change on the laying dates and clutch sizes of six ecologically diverse species of North American birds using 50 years of nest record data. As predicted, laying dates for most (four of six) species were earlier when spring temperatures were warmer. Over the long-term, laying dates advanced over time for two species (red-winged blackbirds, Agelaius phoeniceus and eastern bluebirds, Sialia sialis). Laying date of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) also advanced with increasing temperature when the analysis was restricted to eastern populations. Neither laying date nor clutch sizes changed significantly over time in the remaining species (American coot, Fulica americana, killdeer, Charadrius vociferous, and American robin, Turdus migratorius), an unsurprising result given the lack of increase in temperatures over time at nest locations of these species. This study indicates that the relationship between climate change and breeding in birds is variable within and among species. In large-scale analyses of North American birds, four of seven species have shown advances in laying dates with increasing temperature (including song sparrows in the east). These variable responses within and among species highlight the need for more detailed studies across large spatial scales.     

Bison body size and climate change

The relationship between body size and temperature of mammals is poorly resolved, especially for large keystone species such as bison (Bison bison). Bison are well represented in the fossil record across North America, which provides an opportunity to relate body size to climate within a species. We measured the length of a leg bone (calcaneal tuber, DstL) in 849 specimens from 60 localities that were dated by stratigraphy and ¹⁴C decay. We estimated body mass (M) as M = (DstL/11.49)³. Average annual temperature was estimated from δ¹⁸O values in the ice cores from Greenland. Calcaneal tuber length of Bison declined over the last 40,000 years, that is, average body mass was 37% larger (910 ± 50 kg) than today (665 ± 21 kg). Average annual temperature has warmed by 6°C since the Last Glacial Maximum (~24–18 kya) and is predicted to further increase by 4°C by the end of the 21st century. If body size continues to linearly respond to global temperature, Bison body mass will likely decline by an additional 46%, to 357 ± 54 kg, with an increase of 4°C globally. The rate of mass loss is 41 ± 10 kg per°C increase in global temperature. Changes in body size of Bison may be a result of migration, disease, or human harvest but those effects are likely to be local and short‐term and not likely to persist over the long time scale of the fossil record. The strong correspondence between body size of bison and air temperature is more likely the result of persistent effects on the ability to grow and the consequences of sustaining a large body mass in a warming environment. Continuing rises in global temperature will likely depress body sizes of bison, and perhaps other large grazers, without human intervention.     

Implications of climate change for the fishes of the British Isles

Recent climatic change has been recorded across the globe. Although environmental change is a characteristic feature of life on Earth and has played a major role in the evolution and global distribution of biodiversity, predicted future rates of climatic change, especially in temperature, are such that they will exceed any that has occurred over recent geological time. Climate change is considered as a key threat to biodiversity and to the structure and function of ecosystems that may already be subject to significant anthropogenic stress. The current understanding of climate change and its likely consequences for the fishes of Britain and Ireland and the surrounding seas are reviewed through a series of case studies detailing the likely response of several marine, diadromous and freshwater fishes to climate change. Changes in climate, and in particular, temperature have and will continue to affect fish at all levels of biological organization: cellular, individual, population, species, community and ecosystem, influencing physiological and ecological processes in a number of direct, indirect and complex ways. The response of fishes and of other aquatic taxa will vary according to their tolerances and life stage and are complex and difficult to predict. Fishes may respond directly to climate‐change‐related shifts in environmental processes or indirectly to other influences, such as community‐level interactions with other taxa. However, the ability to adapt to the predicted changes in climate will vary between species and between habitats and there will be winners and losers. In marine habitats, recent changes in fish community structure will continue as fishes shift their distributions relative to their temperature preferences. This may lead to the loss of some economically important cold‐adapted species such as Gadus morhua and Clupea harengus from some areas around Britain and Ireland, and the establishment of some new, warm‐adapted species. Increased temperatures are likely to favour cool‐adapted (e.g. Perca fluviatilis) and warm‐adapted freshwater fishes (e.g. roach Rutilus rutilus and other cyprinids) whose distribution and reproductive success may currently be constrained by temperature rather than by cold‐adapted species (e.g. salmonids). Species that occur in Britain and Ireland that are at the edge of their distribution will be most affected, both negatively and positively. Populations of conservation importance (e.g.Salvelinus alpinus and Coregonus spp.) may decline irreversibly. However, changes in food‐web dynamics and physiological adaptation, for example because of climate change, may obscure or alter predicted responses. The residual inertia in climate systems is such that even a complete cessation in emissions would still leave fishes exposed to continued climate change for at least half a century. Hence, regardless of the success or failure of programmes aimed at curbing climate change, major changes in fish communities can be expected over the next 50 years with a concomitant need to adapt management strategies accordingly.     

Climate change and spring-fruiting fungi

Most macrofungi produce ephemeral fruit bodies during autumn but some have adapted to spring fruiting. In this study, temporal changes in the time of spring fruiting in Norway and the UK during 1960–2007 have been investigated by statistical analyses of about 6000 herbarium and field records, covering 34 species. Nearly 30 per cent of the temporal variation in fruiting could be ascribed to spatial and species-specific effects. Correcting for these effects, linear trends towards progressively earlier fruiting were detected during the entire period in both Norway and the UK, with a change in average fruiting day of 18 days over the study period. Early fruiting was correlated with high winter temperatures in both countries, indicating that the observed phenological changes are likely due to earlier onset of spring. There were also significant correlations between climatic conditions in one year and timing of fruiting the following year, indicating that below-ground mycelia are influenced by climatic conditions over a longer time period before fruiting. Fruiting dates were, however, not strictly related to changes in vernal accumulated thermal time. Our results indicate that global warming has lead to progressively earlier fruiting of spring fungi in northwest Europe during the last half century.     

Climate‐driven habitat change causes evolution in Threespine Stickleback

Climate change can shape evolution directly by altering abiotic conditions or indirectly by modifying habitats, yet few studies have investigated the effects of climate‐driven habitat change on contemporary evolution. We resampled populations of Threespine Stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus) along a latitudinal gradient in California bar‐built estuaries to examine their evolution in response to changing climate and habitat. We took advantage of the strong association between stickleback lateral plate phenotypes and Ectodysplasin A (Eda) genotypes to infer changes in allele frequencies over time. Our results show that over time the frequency of low‐plated alleles has generally increased and heterozygosity has decreased. Latitudinal patterns in stickleback plate phenotypes suggest that evolution at Eda is a response to climate‐driven habitat transformation rather than a direct consequence of climate. As climate change has reduced precipitation and increased temperature and drought, bar‐built estuaries have transitioned from lotic (flowing‐water) to lentic (still‐water) habitats, where the low‐plated allele is favoured. The low‐plated allele has achieved fixation at the driest, hottest southernmost sites, a trend that is progressing northward with climate change. Climate‐driven habitat change is therefore causing a reduction in genetic variation that may hinder future adaptation for populations facing multiple threats.     

Organisms and responses to environmental change

There is great concern currently over environmental change and the biotic responses, actual or potential, to that change. There is also great concern over biodiversity and the observed losses to date. However, there has been little focus on the diversity of potential responses that organisms can make, and how this would influence both the focus of investigation and conservation efforts. Here emphasis is given to broad scale approaches, from gene to ecosystem and where a better understanding of diversity of potential response is needed. There is a need for the identification of rare, key or unique genomes and physiologies that should be made priorities for conservation because of their importance to global biodiversity. The new discipline of conservation physiology is one aspect of the many ways in which organismal responses to environmental variability and change can be investigated, but wider approaches are needed. Environmental change, whether natural or human induced occurs over a very wide range of scales, from nanometres to global and seconds to millennia. The processes involved in responses also function over a wide range of scales, from the molecular to the ecosystem. Organismal responses to change should be viewed in these wider frameworks. Within this overall framework the rate of change of an environmental variable dictates which biological process will be most important in the success or failure of the response. Taking this approach allows an equation to be formulated that allows the likely survival of future change to be estimated:Ps=(f(PF)xf(GM)xf(NP)xf(F)xf(D)xf(RA))/(ΔExf(C)xf(PR)xF(HS)),where Ps = Probability of survival; PF = Physiological flexibility; GM = Gene pool modification rate; NP = number in population; F = Fitness; D = Dispersal capability; RA = Resource availability; ΔE = rate of change of the environment; C = Competition; PR = Predation and parasitism; HS = Habitat separation. Functions (f) are used here to denote that factors may interact and respond in a non-linear fashion.     

Global change biology: A primer

Because of human action, the Earth has entered an era where profound changes in the global environment are creating novel conditions that will be discernable far into the future. One consequence may be a large reduction of the Earth's biodiversity, potentially representing a sixth mass extinction. With effective stewardship, the global change drivers that threaten the Earth's biota could be alleviated, but this requires clear understanding of the drivers, their interactions, and how they impact ecological communities. This review identifies 10 anthropogenic global change drivers and discusses how six of the drivers (atmospheric CO₂ enrichment, climate change, land transformation, species exploitation, exotic species invasions, eutrophication) impact Earth's biodiversity. Driver impacts on a particular species could be positive or negative. In either case, they initiate secondary responses that cascade along ecological lines of connection and in doing so magnify the initial impact. The unique nature of the threat to the Earth's biodiversity is not simply due to the magnitude of each driver, but due to the speed of change, the novelty of the drivers, and their interactions. Emphasizing one driver, notably climate change, is problematic because the other global change drivers also degrade biodiversity and together threaten the stability of the biosphere. As the main academic journal addressing global change effects on living systems, GCB is well positioned to provide leadership in solving the global change challenge. If humanity cannot meet the challenge, then GCB is positioned to serve as a leading chronicle of the sixth mass extinction to occur on planet Earth.     

Climate change influences on global distributions of dengue and chikungunya virus vectors

Numerous recent studies have illuminated global distributions of human cases of dengue and other mosquito-transmitted diseases, yet the potential distributions of key vector species have not been incorporated integrally into those mapping efforts. Projections onto future conditions to illuminate potential distributional shifts in coming decades are similarly lacking, at least outside Europe. This study examined the global potential distributions of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus in relation to climatic variation worldwide to develop ecological niche models that, in turn, allowed anticipation of possible changes in distributional patterns into the future. Results indicated complex global rearrangements of potential distributional areas, which—given the impressive dispersal abilities of these two species—are likely to translate into actual distributional shifts. This exercise also signalled a crucial priority: digitization and sharing of existing distributional data so that models of this sort can be developed more rigorously, as present availability of such data is fragmentary and woefully incomplete.     

Abundance and abundance change in the world's parrots

Estimates of population density and abundance change (differences in density or encounter rates across land uses or time periods) form the cornerstone of much of our knowledge of species' responses to environmental conditions, extinction risks and potential conservation actions. Gathering baseline data on abundance of the world's c. 10 000 bird species and monitoring trends in the light of rapidly changing environmental and harvest pressures is a daunting prospect. With this in mind, we review literature on population densities and abundance changes across habitats in one of the world's largest and most threatened bird families, the parrots (Psittaciformes), to identify gaps in knowledge, model phylogenetic and other influences on abundance, and seek patterns that might guide thinking for data‐deficient taxa and situations. Density estimates were found for only 25% of 356 parrot species. Abundance change data were similarly limited and most came from logged forest, with very few comparisons across different anthropogenic habitats. Threatened species were no more likely to have a density estimate than non‐threatened species, and were less likely to have estimates of abundance change. Exploratory generalized linear mixed models indicated that densities are most influenced by genus, and are generally higher within protected areas than outside. It is unclear whether the latter effect stems from habitat protection, a reduction in poaching or both, but protected areas appear to be beneficial for parrots. Individual members of the ‘parakeet’ genera (e.g. Pyrrhura and Eos) were predictably abundant, whereas within larger‐bodied genera such as Ara (macaws), species were predictably uncommon (< 10 individuals per km²) and there was a long tail of extreme rarity. Responses of parrots to habitat change were highly variable, with natural variation in parrot abundance across different primary forests as great as that between primary forest and human‐altered forests. The speed at which environmental change is affecting the world's parrots far outstrips that of our current capacity to track their abundance and we assess the likely scale of data deficiency in this and other bird groups. Developments in survey and analysis methods such as variants of distance sampling and the integration of niche modelling with point density estimation may increase our effectiveness in monitoring parrots and other important and threatened bird groups.     

Impacts of climate change and urban development on the spotted marsh frog (Limnodynastes tasmaniensis)

Climate change and urbanization are among the most serious threats to amphibians, although little is known about their combined effects. We used a predictive spatial habitat suitability model to explore the potential impacts of climate change and urban development on the spotted marsh frog (Limnodynastes tasmaniensis) on the urban‐fringe of Melbourne, Australia. The CSIRO climate‐change predictions for the region indicate likely temperature increases of 3°C, and annual rainfall reductions of around 200 mm by the year 2070. Much of the study area overlaps a region that has been identified as one of the city's growth corridors. We used Bayesian logistic regression modelling to estimate current and future habitat suitability of pond sites in the Merri Creek catchment, exploring a range of best‐ to worst‐case scenarios through the use of hydrological and urbanization models. Our predictions for 2070, even under a moderate climate‐change scenario, suggest that the majority of ponds in the study area will be dry throughout much of the year. This has obvious implications for L. tasmaniensis, which is an aquatic breeding species. However, in the short term, urbanization is likely to have a more significant effect on the distribution of L. tasmaniensis in the Merri Creek catchment, particularly if development moves beyond the current urban growth boundary. The combined effects of climate change and urbanization could have a profound impact on the species, potentially causing it to disappear from within the study area. We provide recommendations for including such predictive models in urban planning and restoration activities to prepare for future conservation challenges.     

Sagebrush treatments influence annual population change for greater sage‐grouse

Vegetation management practices have been applied worldwide to enhance habitats for a variety of wildlife species. Big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata spp.) communities, iconic to western North America, have been treated to restore herbaceous understories through chemical, mechanical, and prescribed burning practices thought to improve habitat conditions for greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) and other species. Although the response of structural attributes of sagebrush communities to treatments is well understood, there is a need to identify how treatments influence wildlife population dynamics. We investigated the influence of vegetation treatments occurring in Wyoming, United States, from 1994 to 2012 on annual sage‐grouse population change using yearly male sage‐grouse lek counts. We investigated this response across 1, 3, 5, and 10‐year post‐treatment lags to evaluate how the amount of treated sagebrush communities and time since treatment influenced population change, while accounting for climate, wildfire, and anthropogenic factors. With the exception of chemical treatments exhibiting a positive association with sage‐grouse population change 11 years after implementation, population response to treatments was either neutral or negative for at least 11 years following treatments. Our work supports a growing body of research advocating against treating big sagebrush habitats for sage‐grouse, particularly in Wyoming big sagebrush (A. t. wyomingensis). Loss and fragmentation of sagebrush habitats has been identified as a significant threat for remaining sage‐grouse populations. Because sagebrush may take decades to recover following treatments, we recommend practitioners use caution when designing projects to alter remaining habitats, especially when focused on habitat requirements for one life stage and a single species.