Renal function and risk factors of moderate to severe chronic kidney disease in Golestan Province, northeast of Iran

Introduction

The incidence of end-stage renal disease is increasing worldwide. Earlier studies reported high prevalence rates of obesity and hypertension, two major risk factors of chronic kidney disease (CKD), in Golestan Province, Iran. We aimed to investigate prevalence of moderate to severe CKD and its risk factors in the region.

Methods

Questionnaire data and blood samples were collected from 3591 participants (≥18 years old) from the general population. Based on serum creatinine levels, glomerular filtration rate (GFR) was estimated.

Results

High body mass index (BMI) was common: 35.0% of participants were overweight (BMI 25–29.9) and 24.5% were obese (BMI ≥30). Prevalence of CKD stages 3 to 5 (CKD–S3-5), i.e., GFR <60 mL/min/1.73 m², was 4.6%. The odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for the risk of CKD–S3-5 associated with every year increase in age was 1.13 (1.11–1.15). Men were at lower risk of CKD–S3-5 than women (OR = 0.28; 95% CI 0.18–0.45). Obesity (OR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.04–3.05) and self-reported diabetes (OR = 1.70; 95% CI 1.00–2.86), hypertension (OR = 3.16; 95% CI 2.02–4.95), ischemic heart disease (OR = 2.73; 95% CI 1.55–4.81), and myocardial infarction (OR = 2.69; 95% CI 1.14–6.32) were associated with increased risk of CKD–S3-5 in the models adjusted for age and sex. The association persisted for self-reported hypertension even after adjustments for BMI and history of diabetes (OR = 2.85; 95% CI 1.77–4.59).

Conclusion

A considerable proportion of inhabitants in Golestan have CKD–S3-5. Screening of individuals with major risk factors of CKD, in order to early detection and treatment of impaired renal function, may be plausible. Further studies on optimal risk prediction of future end-stage renal disease and effectiveness of any screening program are warranted.     

Maternal and paternal age at delivery, birth order, and risk of childhood onset type 1 diabetes: population based cohort study

ObjectiveTo estimate the associations of maternal and paternal age at delivery and of birth order with the risk of childhood onset type 1 diabetes.DesignCohort study by record linkage of the medical birth registry and the national childhood diabetes registry in Norway.SettingNorway.SubjectsAll live births in Norway between 1974 and 1998 (1.4 million people) were followed for a maximum of 15 years, contributing 8.2 million person years of observation during 1989-98. 1824 cases of type 1 diabetes diagnosed between 1989 and 1998 were identified.ResultsThere was no association between maternal age at delivery and type 1 diabetes among firstborn children, but among fourthborn children there was a 43.2% increase in incidence of diabetes for each five year increase in maternal age (95% confidence interval 6.4% to 92.6%). Each increase in birth order was associated with a 17.9% reduction in incidence (3.2% to 30.4%) when maternal age was 20-24 years, but the association was weaker when maternal age was 30 years or more. Paternal age was not associated with type 1 diabetes after maternal age was adjusted for.ConclusionsIntrauterine factors and early life environment may influence the risk of type 1 diabetes. The relation of maternal age and birth order to risk of type 1 diabetes is complex.

What is already known on this topic

Maternal age at birth is positively associated with risk of childhood onset type 1 diabetesStudies of the effect of birth order on risk of type 1 diabetes have given inconsistent results

What does this study add?

In a national cohort, risk of diabetes in firstborn children was not associated with maternal ageIncreasing maternal age was a risk factor in children born second or laterThe strength of the association increased with increasing birth order     

Coronary and cardiovascular risk estimation for primary prevention: validation of a new Sheffield table in the 1995 Scottish health survey population

ObjectiveTo examine the accuracy of a new version of the Sheffield table designed to aid decisions on lipids screening and detect thresholds for risk of coronary heart disease needed to implement current guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease.DesignComparison of decisions made on the basis of the table with absolute risk of coronary heart disease or cardiovascular disease calculated by the Framingham risk function. The decisions related to statin treatment when coronary risk is ⩾30% over 10 years; aspirin treatment when the risk is ⩾15% over 10 years; and the treatment of mild hypertension when the cardiovascular risk is ⩾20% over 10 years.SettingThe table is designed for use in general practice.SubjectsRandom sample of 1000 people aged 35-64 years from the 1995 Scottish health survey.Results13% of people had a coronary risk of ⩾15%, and 2.2% a risk of ⩾30%, over 10 years. 22% had mild hypertension (systolic blood pressure 140-159 mm Hg). The table indicated lipids screening for everyone with a coronary risk of ⩾15% over 10 years, for 95% of people with a ratio of total cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol of ⩾8.0, but for <50% with a coronary risk of <5% over 10 years. Sensitivity and specificity were 97% and 95% respectively for a coronary risk of ⩾15% over 10 years; 82% and 99% for a coronary risk of ⩾30% over 10 years; and 88% and 90% for a cardiovascular risk of ⩾20% over 10 years in mild hypertension.ConclusionThe table identifies all high risk people for lipids screening, reduces screening of low risk people by more than half, and ensures that treatments are prescribed appropriately to those at high risk, while avoiding inappropriate treatment of people at low risk.     

Screening for future cardiovascular disease using age alone compared with multiple risk factors and age

Background

Risk factors such as blood pressure and serum cholesterol are used, with age, in screening for future cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. The value of using these risk factors with age compared with using age alone is not known. We compared screening for future CVD events using age alone with screening using age and multiple risk factors based on regular Framingham risk assessments.

Methods

Ten-year CVD risk was estimated using Framingham risk equations in a hypothetical sample population of 500,000 people aged 0–89 years. Risk estimates were used to identify individuals who did and did not have a CVD event over a ten-year period. For screening using age alone (age screening) and screening using multiple risk factors and age (Framingham screening) we estimated the (i) detection rate (sensitivity); (ii) false–positive rate; (iii) proportion of CVD-free years of life lost in affected individuals with positive results (person-years detection rate); and (iv) cost per CVD-free life year gained from preventive treatment.

Results

Age screening using a cut-off of 55 years detected 86% of all first CVD events arising in the population every year and 72% of CVD-free years of life lost for a 24% false-positive rate; for five yearly Framingham screening the false-positive rate was 21% for the same 86% detection rate. The estimated cost per CVD-free year of life gained was £2,000 for age screening and £2,200 for Framingham screening if a Framingham screen costs £150 and the annual cost of preventive treatment is £200.

Conclusion

Age screening for future CVD events is simpler than Framingham screening with a similar screening performance and cost-effectiveness. It avoids blood tests and medical examinations. The advantages of age screening in the prevention of heart attack and stroke warrant considering its use in preference to multiple risk factor screening.     

Prevalence of left ventricular systolic dysfunction and heart failure in high risk patients: community based epidemiological study

ObjectivesTo determine the prevalence of left ventricular systolic dysfunction, and of heart failure due to different causes, in patients with risk factors for these conditions.DesignEpidemiological study, including detailed clinical assessment, electrocardiography, and echocardiography.Setting16 English general practices, representative for socioeconomic status and practice type.Participants1062 patients (66% response rate) with previous myocardial infarction, angina, hypertension, or diabetes.ResultsDefinite systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction <40%) was found in 54/244 (22.1%, 95% confidence interval 17.1% to 27.9%) patients with previous myocardial infarction, 26/321 (8.1%, 5.4% to 11.6%) with angina, 7/388 (1.8%, 0.7% to 3.7%) with hypertension, and 12/208 (5.8%, 3.0% to 9.9%) with diabetes. In each group, approximately half of these patients had symptoms of dyspnoea, and therefore had heart failure. Overall rates of heart failure, defined as symptoms of dyspnoea plus objective evidence of cardiac dysfunction (systolic dysfunction, atrial fibrillation, or clinically significant valve disease) were 16.0% (11.6% to 21.2%) in patients with previous myocardial infarction, 8.4% (5.6% to 12.0%) in those with angina, 2.8% (1.4% to 5.0%) in those with hypertension, and 7.7% (4.5% to 12.2%) in those with diabetes.ConclusionMany people with ischaemic heart disease or diabetes have systolic dysfunction or heart failure. The data support the need for trials of targeted echocardiographic screening, in view of the major benefits of modern treatment. In contrast, patients with uncomplicated hypertension have similar rates to the general population.

What is already known on this topic

The prognosis and symptoms of patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction and heart failure can be greatly improved by modern treatmentsMany patients with heart failure do not have an assessment of left ventricular function, resulting in undertreatment of the condition

What this study adds

Patients with a history of ischaemic heart disease (especially those with previous myocardial infarction) or diabetes commonly have left ventricular systolic dysfunctionThese patients would be candidates for a targeted echocardiographic screening programmeIn contrast, the yield from screening patients with uncomplicated hypertension would be low     

Submitting articles to the BMJ

ObjectiveTo determine whether people whose marital partners have depression, diabetes, hypertension, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, hyperlipidaemia, peptic ulcer disease, or asthma or chronic obstructive pulmonary disease are at increased risk of the same disease.DesignCross sectional study.Setting10 practices from the Trent Focus Collaborative Research Practice Network.Participants8386 married couples (16 772 individuals) from a population of 29 014 participants aged 30-74 years.OutcomesRisk of disease in participants whose marital partner had that disease compared with those whose partner did not.ResultsAfter both partners'' age, smoking, and obesity and which general practice they attend were adjusted for, participants whose marital partner had asthma, depression, hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, and peptic ulcer disease were at increased risk of having the same disease. The adjusted odds ratios were 1.69 (95% confidence interval 1.43 to 2.98) for asthma, 2.08 (1.71 to 2.54) for depression, 1.32 (1.04 to 1.67) for hypertension, 1.44 (1.19 to 1.75) for hyperlipidaemia, and 2.01 (1.48 to 2.73) for peptic ulcer disease.ConclusionPartners of people with specific diseases are at increased risk of the disease themselves—at least 70% increased risk for asthma, depression, and peptic ulcer disease. This implicates shared environmental causes in some diseases in addition to any genetic or distant exposure or shared behaviours with respect to seeking health care.

What is already known on this topic

People whose spouses have hypertension are at increased risk of hypertensionLittle is known about the risks of disease for spouses of patients with diseases other than hypertension

What this study adds

People whose marital partner had asthma, depression, and peptic ulcer disease were at increased risk of having the same diseaseShared environmental factors contribute to the risk of diseasesThe costs and benefits of screening people for diseases of their spouses needs to be considered     

Retrospective audit of different antenatal screening policies for Down's syndrome in eight district general hospitals in one health region

ObjectiveTo compare the effectiveness of different screening policies for the antenatal detection of Down''s syndrome.DesignRetrospective six year survey.SettingMaternity units of eight districts.ParticipantsWomen who completed their pregnancies between 1 January 1994 and 31 December 1999 (155 501 deliveries).Results335 cases of Down''s syndrome were identified, 323 in continuing pregnancies or liveborn children. Of these, 171 were identified antenatally. Seven different screening policies were used, in three principal groups: serum screening offered to all mothers, maternal age with serum screening or nuchal translucency available to limited groups, and maternal age combined with anomaly scans. The districts that used serum screening detected 57%, those using maternal age plus serum or nuchal translucency screening 52%, and those using a maternal age of ⩾35 and anomaly scans detected 54%. The least successful district, which offered amniocentesis only to women aged over 37 years, detected only 31%. If amniocentesis had been offered from 35 years, as in all other districts, the detection rate would have risen to 54%. Across the region 15% (range 12-20%) of pregnant women were 35 years or more at delivery, and 58% (33-69%) of infants with Down''s syndrome were born to women in this age range.ConclusionsCurrent additional serum or nuchal translucency screening techniques for antenatal detection of Down''s syndrome are less advantageous than previously supposed. More pregnant women were aged over 35 than has been presumed in statistical models used in demonstration projects of serum screening and, as a result, the proportion of affected fetuses in this age group is much greater than predicted.

What is already known on this topic

Serum screening for Down''s syndrome has been presumed to be more effective than screening by maternal ageThere have been no controlled studies comparing serum screening with screening by maternal age, and its greater efficacy has been presumed from mathematical modelling, which assumed that only 5% of pregnant women were aged over 35 yearsThe modelling predicted that only 20-30% of cases of Down''s syndrome would arise in women aged over 35 and made no allowance for the effects of routine anomaly scanning

What this study adds

15% of pregnant women were aged over 35 years, more than double the 5-7% presumed in statistical models of screening58% of babies with Down''s syndrome were born to women aged 35 years or moreSerum screening and nuchal scanning did not achieve significantly higher antenatal detection rates of Down''s syndrome than the use of maternal age and routine anomaly scanning     

Opt-out of voluntary HIV testing: a Singapore hospital's experience

Introduction

Since 2008, the Singapore Ministry of Health (MOH) has expanded HIV testing by increasing anonymous HIV test sites, as well as issuing a directive to hospitals to offer routine voluntary opt out inpatient HIV testing. We reviewed this program implemented at the end of 2008 at Tan Tock Seng Hospital (TTSH), the second largest acute care general hospital in Singapore.

Methods and Findings

From January 2009 to December 2010, all inpatients aged greater or equal than 21 years were screened for HIV unless they declined or were not eligible for screening. We reviewed the implementation of the Opt Out testing policy. There were a total of 93,211 admissions; 41,543 patients were included based on HIV screening program eligibility criteria. Among those included, 79% (n = 32,675) opted out of HIV screening. The overall acceptance rate was 21%. Majority of eligible patients who were tested (63%) were men. The mean age of tested patients was 52 years. The opt out rate was significantly higher among females (OR: 1.5, 95%CI: 1.4–1.6), aged >60 years (OR: 2.3, 95%CI: 2.2–2.4) and Chinese ethnicity (OR: 1.7, 95%CI:1.6–1.8). The false positive rate of the HIV screening test is 0.56%. The proportion of patients with HIV infection among those who underwent HIV screening is 0.18%. All16 confirmed HIV patients were linked to care.

Conclusion

The default opt-in rate of inpatient HIV testing was low at Tan Tock Seng Hospital, Singapore. Efforts to address individual HIV risk perception and campaigns against HIV stigma are needed to encourage more individuals to be tested for HIV.     

Population-attributable risks for ischemic stroke in a community in South Brazil: a case-control study

Background

Risk factors for ischemic stroke are mostly known, but it is still unclear in most countries, what are their combined population-attributable risk percent (PAR%). In a case-control study the individual odds ratios (ORs) and the individual and combined PAR%, including risk factors not addressed in previous studies were estimated.

Methods

Cases and controls were selected from patients attending to an emergency department. Cases were patients aged with 45 years or more with the first episode of ischemic stroke, characterized by a focal neurological deficit or change in the mental status occurring during the previous 24 hours. Controls, matched to cases by age and gender, were selected from patients without neurological complaints.

Results

133 cases and 272 controls were studied. Odds ratios for ischemic stroke were: atrial fibrillation (27.3; CI 95% 7.5–99.9), left ventricular hypertrophy (20.3; CI 95% 8.8–46.4), history of hypertension (11.2; CI 95% 5.4–23.3), physical inactivity (6.6; CI 95% 3.3–13.1), low levels of HDL-cholesterol (5.0; CI 95%2.8–8.9), heavy smoking (2.8; CI 95% 1.5–5.0), carotid bruit (2.5; CI 95% 1.3–4.6), diabetes (2.4; CI 95% 1.4–4.0) and alcohol abuse (2.1; CI 95% 1.1–4.0), The combination of these risk factors accounted for 98.9% (95% CI; 96.4%–99.7%) of the PAR% for all stroke.

Conclusions

Nine risk factors, easily identified, explain almost 100% of the population attributable risk for ischemic stroke.     

Prevalence of dysfunctional breathing in patients treated for asthma in primary care: cross sectional survey

ObjectivesTo estimate the prevalence of dysfunctional breathing in adults with asthma treated in the community.DesignPostal questionnaire survey using Nijmegen questionnaire.SettingOne general practice with 7033 patients.ParticipantsAll adult patients aged 17-65 with diagnosed asthma who were receiving treatment.Results227/307 patients returned completed questionnaires; 219 (71.3%) questionnaires were suitable for analysis. 63 participants scored ⩾23. Those scoring ⩾23 were more likely to be female than male (46/132 (35%) v 17/87 (20%), P=0.016) and were younger (mean (SD) age 44.8 (14.7) v 49.0 (13.8, (P=0.05). Patients at different treatment steps of the British Thoracic Society asthma guidelines were affected equally.ConclusionsAbout a third of women and a fifth of men had scores suggestive of dysfunctional breathing. Although further studies are needed to confirm the validity of this screening tool and these findings, these prevalences suggest scope for therapeutic intervention and may explain the anecdotal success of the Buteyko method of treating asthma.

What is already known on this topic

Abnormal breathing patterns may cause characteristic symptoms and impair quality of lifeEffective interventions exist for dysfunctional breathingDysfunctional breathing has been described in patients attending hospital respiratory clinics

What this study adds

29% of adults treated for asthma in primary care had symptoms suggestive of dysfunctional breathingAffected patients were more likely to be female and younger, but no differences were found with severity of asthmaSome patients with asthma may benefit from breathing therapy     

Is it possible to exclude a diagnosis of myocardial damage within six hours of admission to an emergency department? Diagnostic cohort study

ObjectiveTo assess the clinical efficacy and accuracy of an emergency department based six hour rule-out protocol for myocardial damage.DesignDiagnostic cohort study.SettingEmergency department of an inner city university hospital.Participants383 consecutive patients aged over 25 years with chest pain of less than 12 hours'' duration who were at low to moderate risk of acute myocardial infarction.InterventionSerial measurements of creatine kinase MB mass and continuous ST segment monitoring for six hours with 12 leads.ResultsOutcome of the gold standard test was available for 292 patients. On the diagnostic test for the protocol, 53 patients had positive results and 239 patients had negative results. There were 18 false positive results and one false negative result. Sensitivity was 97.2% (95% confidence interval 95.0% to 99.0%), specificity 93.0% (90.0% to 96.0%), the negative predictive value 99.6%, and the positive predictive value 66.0%. The positive likelihood ratio was 13.9 and the negative likelihood ratio 0.03.ConclusionsThe six hour rule-out protocol for myocardial infarction is accurate and efficacious. It can be used in patients presenting to emergency departments with chest pain indicating a low to moderate risk of myocardial infarction.

What is already known on this topic

Many patients with chest pain in emergency departments indicating a low to moderate risk of myocardial infarction are admitted to rule out myocardial damageSome 6% of those discharged have undiagnosed myocardial damage

What this study adds

An emergency department based chest pain assessment unit protocol to rule out myocardial damage is sensitive enough to allow safe discharge of patients at low to moderate risk of myocardial infarction within six hoursSuch units can also reduce the number of patients admitted unnecessarily     

Towards a rational screening strategy for albuminuria: results from the unreferred renal insufficiency trial

Background

There remains debate about the screening strategies for albuminuria. This study evaluated whether a screening strategy in an apparently healthy population based on basic clinical and biochemical parameters could be more effective than a strategy where screening for albuminuria is performed unselectively.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The Unreferred Renal Insufficiency (URI) Study is a cross-sectional study on the prevalence of metabolic risk factors in Belgian workers, volunteering to be screened during a routine yearly occupational check-up. Subjects (n = 295) with treated hypertension, known diabetes, treated dyslipidaemia, cardiovascular and renal disease were excluded. Among 1,191 apparently healthy subjects, 23% had unknown hypertension, 13% had impaired glucose tolerance, 15.4% had normoalbuminuria, 4.2% had microalbuminuria and 0.4% had macroalbuminuria. Subjects with resting heart rate ≥85 bpm, plasma glucose ≥5.6 mmol/L and blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg were associated with albuminuria of any degree. A strategy where only subjects with at least one of these risk factors (n = 431) were screened for albuminuria, would identify all subjects with macroalbuminuria (5/5), 64% of those with microalbuminuria (32/50), and less than half of those with normoalbuminuria (81/183). An alternative strategy whereby subjects were first screened for presence of albuminuria, and additional cardiovascular risk factors were only measured in subjects positive for albuminuria (n = 238), would identify only 27% (118/431) of the subjects with additional and potentially modifiable cardiovascular risk factors. On the other hand, half of the subjects in this study with albuminuria (120/238, of which 102 had normoalbuminuria), had no additional cardiovascular risk factor at all.

Conclusions

Screening an apparently healthy population directly for albuminuria will result in a high percentage of false positives, mostly measured in the normal range. Screening for microalbuminuria and macroalbuminuria based on presence of additional, potentially modifiable risk factors appears to be more beneficial. Trial registration 2006 {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00365911","term_id":"NCT00365911"}}NCT00365911     

Images of the good doctor in Western medicine: The doctor-patient relationship

ObjectiveTo determine whether the management of head injuries differs between patients aged ⩾65 years and those <65.DesignProspective observational national study over four years.Setting25 Scottish hospitals that admit trauma patients.Participants527 trauma patients with extradural or acute subdural haematomas.ResultsPatients aged ⩾65 years had lower survival rates than patients <65 years. Rates were 15/18 (83%) v 165/167 (99%) for extradural haematoma (P=0.007) and 61/93 (66%) v 229/249 (92%) for acute subdural haematoma (P<0.001). Older patients were less likely to be transferred to specialist neurosurgical care (10 (56%) v 142 (85%) for extradural haematoma (P=0.005) and 56 (60%) v 192 (77%) for subdural haematoma (P=0.004)). There was no significant difference between age groups in the incidence of neurosurgical interventions in patients who were transferred. Logistic regression analysis showed that age had a significant independent effect on transfer and on survival. Older patients had higher rates of coexisting medical conditions than younger patients, but when severity of injury, initial physiological status at presentation, or previous health were controlled for in a log linear analysis, transfer rates were still lower in older patients than in younger patients (P<0.001).ConclusionsCompared with those aged under 65 years, people aged 65 and over have a worse prognosis after head injury complicated by intracranial haematoma. The decision to transfer such patients to neurosurgical care seems to be biased against older patients.

What is already known on this topic

Older patients with acute intracranial haematomas have significantly higher mortality and poorer functional outcome than younger patients with similar injuriesIntracranial haematomas are larger and more common in older patients with head injury than in younger patientsEarly diagnosis and surgical intervention for operable lesions is a crucial factor in determining patients'' outcomes

What this study adds

Older patients with acute intracranial haematomas were less likely to be transferred for specialist neurosurgical care than younger patients with similar severities of injuries, extracranial injuries, and physiological status at presentationSignificant differences in transfer rates related to age were still seen after pre-existing medical conditions were controlled for     

30 Year patterns of mortality in Tobago, West Indies, 1976-2005: impact of glucose intolerance and alcohol intake

Objectives

To determine the main predictors of all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortality in a rural West Indian population in Plymouth, Tobago over 30 years.

Methods

Questionnaire survey for CV risk factors and alcohol consumption patterns administered at baseline in 1976 with 92.5% response rate. 831/832 patients were followed up until 2005 or death.

Results

Hypertension (>140/90 mm Hg) was prevalent in 48% of men and 44% of women, and 21% of men and 17% of women had diabetes. Evidence showed most predictors for all cause and cardiovascular mortality having the main effects at ages <60 years, (p-value for interaction<0.01) but no risk factors having sex-specific effects on mortality. The main predictors of all-cause mortality at age <60 years in the fully adjusted model were high sessional alcohol intake (hazard ratio (HR) 2.04, 95% CI 1.10-3.80), severe hypertension >160/95 mm Hg (HR 1.68, 95% CI 1.09-2.60), diabetes (HR 3.28, 95% CI 1.89-5.69), and BMI (HR 1.04, 95% CI 1.00-1.07). The main predictors of cardiovascular mortality were similar in the fully adjusted model: high sessional alcohol intake (HR 2.47 95% CI 1.10-5.57), severe hypertension (HR 2.78 95% CI 1.56-4.95), diabetes (HR 3.68 95% CI 1.77-7.67) and additionally LVH, (HR 5.54 95% CI 1.38-22.26), however BMI did not show independent effects. For men, high sessional alcohol intake explains 27% of all cause mortality, and 40% of cardiovascular mortality at age <60 yrs. In adults aged <60 years, the attributable risk fraction for IGT/Diabetes and all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality is 28% in women vs. 11% in men, and 22% in women vs. 6% in men respectively.

Conclusions

In this Afro-Caribbean population we found that a major proportion of deaths are attributable to high sessional alcohol intake (in males), diabetes, and hypertension and these risk factors primarily operate in those below 60 years.     

Using thresholds based on risk of cardiovascular disease to target treatment for hypertension: modelling events averted and number treated

ObjectiveTo estimate the impact of using thresholds based on absolute risk of cardiovascular disease to target drug treatment to lower blood pressure in the community.DesignModelling of three thresholds of treatment for hypertension based on the absolute risk of cardiovascular disease. 5 year risk of disease was estimated for each participant using an equation to predict risk. Net predicted impact of the thresholds on the number of people treated and the number of disease events averted over 5 years was calculated assuming a relative treatment benefit of one quarter.SettingAuckland, New Zealand.Participants2158 men and women aged 35-79 years randomly sampled from the general electoral rolls.Results46 374 (12%) Auckland residents aged 35-79 receive drug treatment to lower their blood pressure, averting an estimated 1689 disease events over 5 years. Restricting treatment to individuals with blood pressure ⩾170/100 mm Hg and those with blood pressure between 150/90-169/99 mm Hg who have a predicted 5 year risk of disease ⩾10% would increase the net number for whom treatment would be recommended by 19 401. This 42% relative increase is predicted to avert 1139/1689 (68%) additional disease events overall over 5 years compared with current treatment. If the threshold for 5 year risk of disease is set at 15% the number recommended for treatment increases by <10% but about 620/1689 (37%) additional events can be averted. A 20% threshold decreases the net number of patients recommended for treatment by about 10% but averts 204/1689 (12%) more disease events than current treatment.ConclusionsImplementing treatment guidelines that use treatment thresholds based on absolute risk could significantly improve the efficiency of drug treatment to lower blood pressure in primary care.     

Diabetes with hypertension as risk factors for adult dengue hemorrhagic fever in a predominantly dengue serotype 2 epidemic: a case control study

Background

Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a severe form of dengue, characterized by bleeding and plasma leakage. A number of DHF risk factors had been suggested. However, these risk factors may not be generalized to all populations and epidemics for screening and clinical management of patients at risk of developing DHF. This study explored demographic and comorbidity risk factors for DHF in adult dengue epidemics in Singapore in year 2006 (predominantly serotype 1) and in year 2007–2008 (predominantly serotype 2).

Methods

A retrospective case-control study was conducted with 149 DHF and 326 dengue fever (DF) patients from year 2006, and 669 DHF and 1,141 DF patients from year 2007–2008. Demographic and reported comorbidity data were collected from patients previously. We performed multivariate logistic regression to assess the association between DHF and demographic and co-morbidities for year 2006 and year 2007–2008, respectively.

Results

Only Chinese (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 1.90; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.01–3.56) was independently associated with DHF in year 2006. In contrast, age groups of 30–39 years (AOR = 1.41; 95% CI:1.09–1.81), 40–49 years (AOR = 1.34; 95% CI:1.09–1.81), female (AOR = 1.57; 95% CI:1.28–1.94), Chinese (AOR = 1.67; 95% CI:1.24–2.24), diabetes (AOR = 1.78; 95% CI:1.06–2.97), and diabetes with hypertension (AOR = 2.16; 95%CI:1.18–3.96) were independently associated with DHF in year 2007–2008. Hypertension was proposed to have effect modification on the risk of DHF outcome in dengue patients with diabetes. Chinese who had diabetes with hypertension had 2.1 (95% CI:1.07–4.12) times higher risk of DHF compared with Chinese who had no diabetes and no hypertension.

Conclusions

Adult dengue patients in Singapore who were 30–49 years, Chinese, female, had diabetes or diabetes with hypertension were at greater risk of developing DHF during epidemic of predominantly serotype 2. These risk factors can be used to guide triaging of patients who require closer clinical monitoring and early hospitalization in Singapore, when confirmed in more studies.     

Randomised controlled trial of Helicobacter pylori testing and endoscopy for dyspepsia in primary care

ObjectiveTo determine the cost effectiveness of a strategy of near patient Helicobacter pylori testing and endoscopy for managing dyspepsia.DesignRandomised controlled trial.Setting31 UK primary care centres.Participants478 patients under 50 years old presenting with dyspepsia of longer than four weeks duration.InterventionsNear patient testing for H pylori and open access endoscopy for patients with positive results. Control patients received acid suppressing drugs or specialist referral at general practitioner''s discretion.Results40% of the study group tested positive for H pylori. 45% of study patients had endoscopy compared with 25% of controls. More peptic ulcers were diagnosed in the study group (7.4% v 2.1%, P=0.011). Paired comparison of symptom scores and quality of life showed that all patients improved over time with no difference between study and control groups. No significant differences were observed in rates of prescribing, consultation, or referral. Costs were higher in the study group (£367.85 v £253.16 per patient).ConclusionsThe test and endoscopy strategy increases endoscopy rates over usual practice in primary care. The additional cost is not offset by benefits in symptom relief or quality of life.

What is already known on this topic

Patients younger than 50 without H pylori infection are unlikely to have treatable disease detected at endoscopySuch patients can be managed by acid suppression and reassurance aloneTest and endoscopy (referral of patients testing positive for H pylori in primary care) has been recommended as a way to reduce endoscopic workload

What this paper adds

Applying a test and endoscopy strategy increased the endoscopy referral rate from 25% to 40%The strategy produced no significant differences in symptoms or quality of life compared with usual managementThe increased costs of this strategy cannot be justified     

Cross-sectional analysis of late HAART initiation in Latin America and the Caribbean: late testers and late presenters

Background

Starting HAART in a very advanced stage of disease is assumed to be the most prevalent form of initiation in HIV-infected subjects in developing countries. Data from Latin America and the Caribbean is still lacking. Our main objective was to determine the frequency, risk factors and trends in time for being late HAART initiator (LHI) in this region.

Methodology

Cross-sectional analysis from 9817 HIV-infected treatment-naïve patients initiating HAART at 6 sites (Argentina, Chile, Haiti, Honduras, Peru and Mexico) from October 1999 to July 2010. LHI had CD4⁺ count ≤200cells/mm³ prior to HAART. Late testers (LT) were those LHI who initiated HAART within 6 months of HIV diagnosis. Late presenters (LP) initiated after 6 months of diagnosis. Prevalence, risk factors and trends over time were analyzed.

Principal Findings

Among subjects starting HAART (n = 9817) who had baseline CD4⁺ available (n = 8515), 76% were LHI: Argentina (56%[95%CI:52–59]), Chile (80%[95%CI:77–82]), Haiti (76%[95%CI:74–77]), Honduras (91%[95%CI:87–94]), Mexico (79%[95%CI:75–83]), Peru (86%[95%CI:84–88]). The proportion of LHI statistically changed over time (except in Honduras) (p≤0.02; Honduras p = 0.7), with a tendency towards lower rates in recent years. Males had increased risk of LHI in Chile, Haiti, Peru, and in the combined site analyses (CSA). Older patients were more likely LHI in Argentina and Peru (OR 1.21 per +10-year of age, 95%CI:1.02–1.45; OR 1.20, 95%CI:1.02–1.43; respectively), but not in CSA (OR 1.07, 95%CI:0.94–1.21). Higher education was associated with decreased risk for LHI in Chile (OR 0.92 per +1-year of education, 95%CI:0.87–0.98) (similar trends in Mexico, Peru, and CSA). LHI with date of HIV-diagnosis available, 55% were LT and 45% LP.

Conclusion

LHI was highly prevalent in CCASAnet sites, mostly due to LT; the main risk factors associated were being male and older age. Earlier HIV-diagnosis and earlier treatment initiation are needed to maximize benefits from HAART in the region.     

Reduction in mortality after inappropriate early discharge from intensive care unit: logistic regression triage model

ObjectiveTo develop a predictive model to triage patients for discharge from intensive care units to reduce mortality after discharge.DesignLogistic regression analyses and modelling of data from patients who were discharged from intensive care units.SettingGuy''s hospital intensive care unit and 19 other UK intensive care units from 1989 to 1998.Participants5475 patients for the development of the model and 8449 for validation.ResultsMortality after discharge from intensive care was up to 12.4%. The triage model identified patients at risk from death on the ward with a sensitivity of 65.5% and specificity of 87.6%, and an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.86. Variables in the model were age, end stage disease, length of stay in unit, cardiothoracic surgery, and physiology. In the validation dataset the 34% of the patients identified as at risk had a discharge mortality of 25% compared with a 4% mortality among those not at risk.ConclusionsThe discharge mortality of at risk patients may be reduced by 39% if they remain in intensive care units for another 48 hours. The discharge triage model to identify patients at risk from too early and inappropriate discharge from intensive care may help doctors to make the difficult clinical decision of whom to discharge to make room for a patient requiring urgent admission to the unit. If confirmed, this study has implications on the provision of resources.

What is already known on this topic

In the United Kingdom, the mortality of patients who die on the ward after discharge from intensive care is unacceptably high (9% to 27%)Indirect evidence has shown that this is due to too early and inappropriate discharge from intensive care that has increased over the past 10 years

What this study adds

A triage model identifies patients at risk from inappropriate discharge from intensive careMortality after discharge from intensive care may be reduced by 39% if these patients were to stay in intensive care for another 48 hoursAn estimated 16% more beds are required if mortality after discharge from intensive care is to be reduced